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Trump's health puts the global economy before new challenges


Mary B
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Trump's health puts the global economy before new challenges
 
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Economy News _ Baghdad

It is said that if the US economy sneezes, the global economy will catch a cold !, a sign that shows the weight and influence of the United States.
Therefore, the health of the US President, Donald Trump does not only concern his citizens but the whole world, especially global markets, which were affected by the flow of news of his infection with the Coronavirus two days ago, especially since the leader of the great powers is able to make decisions that affect the whole world.
Among the positive coincidences in Trump's injury was that it came at the end of the week, so the losses were limited, and Friday was a simple test of the impact of the president's illness on the global economy, and it seemed that there was an impact.
Oil prices fell by more than four percent on Friday, after Trump was declared infected with the epidemic.
The matter caused waves of selling in the stock markets, to close the American stock markets down, as investors were reluctant to take risks due to Trump's injury, which exacerbated the uncertainty and uncertainty, as the date of the highly polarized US elections, scheduled for next November, approaches.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48 percent, the Standard & Poor's Index closed 0.96 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.22 percent, according to "Reuters", which reflects the uncertainty.
In Europe, stock markets suffered losses at the beginning of trading Friday, before achieving a slight increase at the close. Usually the markets witness a wide selling movement dominated by panic in the event of geopolitical events.
Saturday and Sunday, when global markets were disrupted, represented a truce that cushioned losses.
Trump and his family sent successive messages to reassure his supporters, citizens, and markets as well, and Trump said that the next 48 hours, that is, Sunday and Monday, will be a "real test."
Likewise, Monday will also be a real test for global markets, with the start of a new week of work, and many markets will depend on their activity on the health of the US President.
Trump's hospitalization creates economic and political uncertainty, which is the most troublesome for investors in financial markets.
Adding to this uncertainty is that Trump is the statement of his personal physician, Sean Connelly, that he has not passed the danger stage, although he has shown a response.
Although postponing the elections is excluded in the event of Trump's health deteriorating, the closest scenario is for Vice President Mike Pence to assume the president's responsibilities during the coming period.
Trump had said earlier that he went to "Walter Reed" hospital feeling tired.
In the event that the president has symptoms significantly, his quarantine period will become longer, and if his symptoms intensify, and he becomes unable to perform the duties of the presidency, it is possible that Vice President Pence will become the acting president until the president can return.
In the times when the US president became vacant due to the assassination, as in the case of John Kennedy in 1963 or the attempt to assassinate Reagan in 1981, the authorities resorted to closing securities to prevent selling and speculation.
The situation today differs, with technological developments and the increasing intertwining of economies around the world more than ever before, as well as the Corona pandemic that surrounded the global economy and pushed it into a state of recession.
And stock markets may be the most affected by Trump's health in the coming days, and these markets were one of the distinguishing features in his first term, as the S&P 500 index for financial companies rose by 56 percent during his years in office, so Trump's absence will lead to Changes in economic policies or at least uncertainty about them, which worries investors and reduces their activity.
The announcement of Trump's injury inflicted the largest loss on this index, which was estimated at 1 percent.
And before the Corona pandemic, the performance of US stock markets was reflecting a thriving economy, as a result of business growth and reform of the tax system, which increased the ability of companies to compete, and unemployment was at its lowest level, including among American citizens of African and Spanish descent, according to the Census Bureau. American.
For example, the Statistical Office said a few days ago that the country added 660,000 new jobs last September, a historic figure in the United States.
So far, the United States has regained nearly half of the jobs lost from the coronavirus lockdown.
The American "CNBC" network says in a report that Trump's health could become an influential factor in the coming weeks, to see the impact of this on the presidential elections.
The agenda in the United States is crowded in the coming weeks, not only with electoral campaigns, but also with political and economic decisions, especially the size of the financial stimulus that is expected to be approved by the US Congress, especially with the arrival of signs indicating that it can be achieved.
The Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, said he had asked airlines not to grant furloughs to workers, which they understood were intending to pass the fiscal stimulus.
Julian Emmanuelle, head of the stock department at the financial company BTEG, explains that the financial markets will closely monitor Trump's health, how he will communicate with the public, will we see him personally next week and what is the size of his tweets, these are evidence of his health condition.
The fact that the president is sick now could damage confidence and slow some improvement in the economy, Emmanuel said.
And there is concern in the market about Biden's position, which the poll indicates is ahead of Trump, especially as he is determined to increase taxes, which irritates many companies, according to "CNBC", so Trump is seen as the best for them.
On the global economy front, Lokman Otunga, chief research analyst at VSTM Financial, said Trump has created a broad feeling of avoiding risks, thus reducing the appetite for oil.

 

Number of observations 32   Date of addition 10/4/2020

https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=22113

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