World Economic Outlook Reports

Mary B · October 4, 2020

World Economic Outlook Reports

A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

2020

COMING SOON: World Economic Outlook, October 2020 - Analytical Chapters

September 29, 2020

Description: WHEN: Chapter 3: Mitigating Climate Change: Growth and Distribution Friendly Strategies (October 7, 11:00am EST); and Chapter 2: The Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Impact (October 8, 10:00am EST).

World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery

June 24, 2020

Description: Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

Mary B · October 6, 2020

After gloomy expectations ... the International Monetary Fund reveals the truth of "economic recession"

Alhurra - Washington

06 October 2020

Expectations that the economic recession due to Corona will be lower than expected

The Director-General of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said, Tuesday, that the global recession will be less severe than expected, stressing that the "rise" towards reviving the economy will be "slow, difficult and uneven."

"We now consider that the development recorded in the second and third quarters was better than expected, allowing for a slight revision of our global forecasts for 2020," she said in a speech before the fall meetings to be held next week in Washington.

On June 24, the International Monetary Fund revealed a very bleak economic outlook, with cumulative losses on the global economy of 12 thousand billion dollars in 2020 and 2021.

It also expected a recession of 4.9 percent during the current year, compared to 3 percent it had expected in April.

Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expected that the global recession this year will be less than expected thanks to the efforts made by countries to limit the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the recovery next year will also be less than expected, according to the organization, which estimated that the contraction of global economic output will reach 4.5 percent. It expects a return to 5.0 percent growth in 2021.

In its previous forecast in June, the Paris-based organization said it expects an economic recession of at least 6.0 percent in 2020 and a return to growth of 5.2 percent next year.

https://www.alhurra.com/business/2020/10/06/التوقعات-القاتمة-صندوق-النقد-الدولي-يكشف-حقيقة-الركود-الاقتصادي

Mary B · October 7, 2020

The World Bank: Coronavirus may push 150 million people into extreme poverty

21:27 - 10/07/2020

Information / follow-up

The World Bank announced that the Coronavirus could push 150 million people into extreme poverty by the end of 2021, eliminating more than three years of progress in reducing poverty.

In its groundbreaking biennial report on poverty and shared prosperity, the bank made clear that from 88 million to 115 million additional people will remain in extreme poverty, that is, those who live on less than $ 1.90 a day, during the year 2020.

This means that 9.1-9.4% of the world’s population will live in extreme poverty this year, the same rate as in 2017, which reached 9.2% and represents the first increase in the rate of extreme poverty in nearly 20 years. 25 n

https://www.almaalomah.com/2020/10/07/498880/

Mary B · October 7, 2020

Federal Reserve: Absence of fiscal stimulus threatens US economic recovery

October 7, 2020 09:37 PM

Mubasher: The Federal Reserve said failure to provide Congress with more fiscal stimulus would jeopardize the US economic recovery.

The US Federal Reserve decided at the last meeting to fix the interest rate at a level ranging from zero percent to 0.25 percent, and is expected not to raise it until at least 2023.

The US Central Bank said in the minutes of its last meeting last month, issued today, Wednesday: "The Corona epidemic and the measures taken to contain its spread have continued to affect economic activity in the United States and abroad."

But the minutes added: “Information available at the time of the mid-September meeting indicated that real GDP for the United States was recovering at a rapid pace in the third quarter, and labor market conditions continued to improve significantly in July and August, but employment He remained below his level at the beginning of the year. "

Fed officials have expressed concern that the lack of more fiscal stimulus will jeopardize the economic recovery.

The minutes continued: “Many policymakers indicated that their economic outlook assumes additional financial support, and that if future financial support is much smaller or later than they expected, the pace of recovery may be slower than expected.”

https://www.mubasher.info/news/3704487/الاحتياطي-الفيدرالي-غياب-التحفيز-المالي-يهدد-تعافي-الاقتصاد-الأمريكي/

Sage449 · October 8, 2020

Isn't this what the new world order, illuminati, soros and toadies want?

Even at the elitist wealthiest level not everyone that is wealthy will be wealthy enough - even some of them will not make it. A wealthy caste system.

If the poor and middle classes are killed off who's around to kiss 💋 their behinds and do their bidding?

Edited October 8, 2020 by Sage449
Addition

Mary B · October 8, 2020

The World Bank Calls For Urgent Global Action To Stop The Threats To Poverty Reduction

On October 8, 2020

Al-Mustaqila .. The World Bank said its poverty effort is now facing its worst setback ever. After experiencing a steady decline in extreme poverty rates for nearly 25 years.

This setback is largely attributed to major challenges - the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, conflict and climate change - facing all countries, especially those with large numbers of poor.

The increase in extreme poverty rates from 2019 to 2020 is expected to be greater than at any time since the World Bank began tracking global poverty rates steadily and consistently. While the Coronavirus is a new obstacle, conflicts and climate change have been increasing extreme poverty rates for years in different regions of the world.

Today, communities, countries and continents come face-to-face with these huge challenges. A new World Bank report entitled “Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Changing Conditions” - sheds light again on the risks to poverty reduction efforts and provides recommendations for dealing with these difficult circumstances.

The World Bank report stated that the number of the needy poor decreased significantly from 1.9 billion in 1990 to 689 million in 2017.

The report indicates that the rate of extreme poverty in the world decreased by about one percentage point annually on average between 1990 and 2015, but it decreased by less than half a percentage point annually between 2015 and 2017.

The main reasons for this have been a slowdown in the pace of poverty reduction and have been evident for some time, but its effects have now been exacerbated by the outbreak of the Coronavirus.

The report shows that about 40% of the poor live today in countries affected by conflict, and that the poorest groups suffer from violent conflicts that destroy their livelihoods and at the same time prevent further investment from flowing into their communities. For example, extreme poverty rates nearly doubled between 2015 and 2018 in the Middle East and North Africa as a result of the conflicts raging in Syria and Yemen.

Acts of violence, in their extreme forms, can lead to grinding wars that come to the fore, claiming lives and destroying assets and natural resources, leaving a legacy that may take many years to recover from.

Climate change poses an ongoing threat to poverty reduction efforts, and will intensify in the coming years. New analyzes included in this report estimate that climate change will push between 68 and 135 million people into poverty by 2030.

Climate change is a particularly serious threat to countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia - where most of the world's poor are concentrated. The impacts of climate change may also include higher food prices, deteriorating health conditions, and exposure to disaster risks, such as floods and floods, that affect the poor and the population in general.

Climate change is perhaps the most vexing challenge for the small, poorest countries, although it is not a perfect match for them. Human-induced rises in global temperatures and sea levels are almost all a product of levels of energy use by high-income and large middle-income countries that are growing at a rapid rate.

Violent conflicts and climate change have posed a threat to poverty reduction efforts for years, but the outbreak of the new Corona virus (Covid-19) has become the newest and most urgent threat.

The impact of the coronavirus outbreak on poverty reduction efforts will be swift and substantial. In 2020 alone, this pandemic could lead to a significant increase in the number of extreme poor, by between 88 million and 115 million people. The coronavirus outbreak is disrupting everything from daily life to international trade. The poorest groups have the highest rates of disease and death rates worldwide.

Poverty rates are increasing as a result of the outbreak of the Corona virus among the population that was relatively untouched. The new poor are more likely to live in urban areas and be more educated than the extreme poor, more involved in informal services and manufacturing, and to a lesser extent in agriculture. In middle-income countries such as India and Nigeria, 75 percent of the new poor are found.

The new report entitled "Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020" affirms that conflict and climate change will cause enormous human and economic costs, noting that the goal of reducing the rate of extreme poverty in the world to below 3% by 2030, which was already at risk before the emergence of the Corona virus. Is now out of reach without quick, significant, and major policy measures.

We are facing an extraordinary moment in the current crisis, as no disease has become such a global threat so quickly as the Coronavirus. Never before has the world witnessed such a disproportionate increase in the proportion of the poorest people living in regions and countries affected by conflict. Global weather patterns are undergoing unprecedented changes due to human activity.

The world's response to these major challenges today will directly affect the potential to alter current setbacks in global poverty reduction efforts. Saving lives and restoring livelihoods must be a top immediate priority. Some of the necessary policies to achieve this have already been implemented, such as social protection systems. For example, Brazil and Indonesia are witnessing efforts to expand existing cash transfer programs.

Despite the importance of addressing the Coronavirus, countries must continue to work to overcome the existing obstacles that prevent the continuation of poverty reduction. The "Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020" report provides recommendations for adopting a complementary two-track approach: responding effectively to the urgent crisis in the short term while remaining focused on addressing core development problems, including conflict and climate change.

Bridging the gaps between policy aspirations and their implementation on the ground

Often times, there is a wide gap between policies as envisioned by governments on the one hand, and their implementation in practice on the other hand, and thus between what citizens truly expect and what they face daily.

Government policy aspirations can be commendable, but there is likely to be great variation in the extent to which they can be achieved, and the groups that benefit from them. For example, at the local level, the less influential groups in the community may not be able to access basic services. Globally, concerns about the political economy will be manifested in the limited global supplies of medical equipment to rich and poor countries. It is critical to develop implementation strategies that can respond quickly and flexibly to fill gaps.

Promote learning and improve data

There is still much unknown about the emerging corona virus. The speed and range that affected the world have overwhelmed response systems in rich and poor countries alike. Innovative responses often come from local communities and companies that may have a better idea of which problems should be prioritized and may have greater local legitimacy to articulate and implement difficult decisions such as requirements to stay at home. The faster everyone learns from each other, the more benefit everyone will be.

For example, the widely acclaimed response of the Republic of Korea to the Coronavirus is attributable in part to serious efforts to learn from its "traumatic experience" when dealing with the Coronavirus that causes respiratory syndrome in the Middle East in 2015.

Investing in preparedness and prevention

Repeatedly using the proverb “An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure” may sound like a trite, but at the present moment the world is certainly learning that lesson again, but the hard way. The political benefits of preventive measures are often minimal, as their role in preventing disasters does not make headlines in the media as expected. Over time, people who do not suffer from disasters can feel good about themselves, assuming that they have outgrown the risks or that they can more easily address them if they do occur.

The coronavirus outbreak, along with climate change and enduring conflicts, reminds us of the importance of investing in preparedness and prevention measures in a comprehensive and proactive manner.

Expand the scope of cooperation and coordination

Contributing to and preserving public goods requires extensive cooperation and coordination. This is critical to encouraging large-scale learning and improving data-driven foundations in policymaking, building a sense of shared solidarity during crises and ensuring that the difficult policy choices that officials make are trustworthy.

Finally, effective responses must begin with an acknowledgment of what makes these challenges not only different and difficult, but of great importance for the poor. Failure to act in a comprehensive and urgent manner will create greater challenges in the future. Despite the importance of addressing these shocks at the present time, there must be a relentless focus on the development agenda currently underway to promote inclusive growth, invest in and protect human capital and productive assets, if countries are to continue reducing poverty.

But ending this massive shift in poverty reduction efforts that we saw with the outbreak of the Coronavirus is necessary and possible. It happened in the past in the face of what were seen at the time as insurmountable challenges - like eliminating smallpox, ending World War II, closing the ozone hole, and it will happen again in the future.

Hence, countries around the world must urgently pledge to work together, to do better - especially now, and in the long term.

https://www.mustaqila.com/البنك-الدولي-يدعو-لتحرك-عالمي-عاجل-لوق/

Mary B · October 9, 2020

The decline of the US dollar globally, heading to record losses for the second week

09 October 2020 12:12 PM

Direct : The US dollar retreated against a basket of major currencies during trading on Friday, heading to record losses for the second week in a row.

The dollar’s performance comes as we watch the stimulus package developments, which would weaken the dollar in the short term, by improving investor sentiment and their willingness to buy riskier assets such as stocks and commodity currencies.

Talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin on the coronavirus aid plans have resumed, two days after President Donald Trump terminated them.

By 9:00 GMT, the dollar fell against the euro by 0.3 percent to $ 1.1795, and it fell 0.1 percent against the Japanese yen, to record 105.91 yen.

The green paper stabilized against the sterling at the level of $ 1.2944, but it declined against the Swiss franc by 0.4 percent to 0.9134 francs.

During the same period, the main dollar index, which measures the currency’s performance against 6 major currencies, declined by more than 0.2 percent to 93.38.

https://www.mubasher.info/news/3704933/هبوط-الدولار-الأمريكي-عالميا-متجها-لتسجيل-خسائر-للأسبوع-الثاني/

Mary B · October 9, 2020

World Economic Forum: Unemployment is the greatest threat facing the world

08 October 2020

Picture

Protest against rising unemployment in Florida (Getty)

Hiring disruptions caused by the pandemic and increased automation (Getty)

A survey conducted by the World Economic Forum showed that unemployment is the biggest concern over the next ten years for business executives around the world, followed closely by fears of the spread of infectious diseases .
"The employment disruptions caused by the pandemic, the increasing automation and the shift to more environmentally conscious economies are fundamentally changing labor markets," said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.
She added, "As we emerge from the crisis, the leaderships have a wonderful opportunity to create new jobs, support wages that guarantee a minimum standard of living, and re-imagine social safety nets to adequately address future labor market challenges

The survey of regional risks of doing business, in which the opinions of 12012 business leaders in 127 countries were surveyed, is part of the Global Competitiveness Report to be issued by the World Economic Forum next month.
The survey showed that fears of financial crises, cyber attacks, and severe social unrest came in the third, fourth and fifth places, respectively.
The forum said climate change risks also rose in its 30-item list of risks, while fears of militant attacks decreased.
Unemployment rates had risen sharply due to the general isolation measures and other restrictions imposed to address the Coronavirus pandemic, and fear of deteriorating conditions in the country spread.
The European Central Bank said last month that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the euro zone, and that there is a limited increase in consumer demand even as the economy recovers from an unprecedented recession.
The bank added that unemployment will rise, as the current rate is not fully under the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, and that the numbers are affected by job support schemes.

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/economy/المنتدى-الاقتصادي-العالمي-البطالة-أكبر-خطر-يواجه-العالم

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