An Economist Talks About What Controls The Dollar Exchange Rate In Iraq !
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By DinarThug
CNN. Broadcasting While Handing Out The Corona Masks (Secretly Dipped In Laughing Gas) For The Meeting !
The second round of strategic dialogue between Iraq and America will start soon, amid Sunni-Kurdish support
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Political circles in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq are awaiting the results of the second round of "strategic dialogue" negotiations between Iraq and the United States of America, scheduled to begin on August 20, during a visit scheduled by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazimi to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump there.
And according to what the White House recently announced, the talks between the two parties will include "facing the challenges posed by the emerging corona virus, in addition to issues related to security, energy and economic developments."
While Al-Kazemi's office stated that the visit will include “discussing the files of bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States of America, issues of common interest, joint cooperation in the fields of security, energy, health, economy and investment, and ways to enhance them, in addition to the file to address the Corona pandemic, and bilateral cooperation to serve common interests. For the two countries, ”according to a government statement.
And Shiite politicians, most of whom belong to the “Al-Fateh” coalition led by Hadi Al-Amiri, put the issue of removing American forces from Iraqi lands, in accordance with the decision of the Iraqi parliament (on January 5), as a top priority for the visit.
A member of the Security and Defense Committee in the House of Representatives, a representative of the State of Law coalition, Kata Al-Rikabi, said, in a statement to the official agency, that "the prime minister will discuss during his visit to the United States the strategic framework agreement and the presence of foreign forces."
He added, "The prime minister will also discuss the economic crisis that Iraq is going through, as well as the health crisis in relation to the Corona epidemic, in addition to joint cooperation between the two countries at multiple levels." While a member of the Parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee, a representative of the "Sairoun" coalition, Rami Al-Skiny, Al-Kazemi's visit to Washington "will achieve a kind of international balance."
The deputy of the coalition, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, added that "Al-Kazemi's visit to Washington is one of the important visits on the international side to achieve a kind of balance in performance, and to support and strengthen the Iraqi interest."
He added, "The visit will address many of the economic and political axes and the security dimensions that can be achieved on the Iraqi arena."
He pointed out that "there is a performance that must be different for the prime minister, and this can only be achieved with a balance in the performance of the Iraqi government, and the lack of tendency for an axis without another," pointing out that "there are international axes that are reflected in the Iraqi arena, so it is necessary to have a balance and calm in The square, internally and externally, ”.
Most of the Shiite political leaders, especially those with a military wing or an armed faction, share the opinion about the proximity of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, to the American axis, and the danger of this to neighboring Iran, which is their most prominent supporter.
The "Sayyid of the Martyrs" Brigades, one of the armed factions close to Tehran, considered that Al-Kazemi's upcoming visit to Washington would be pouring into the "Dissolution of the Popular Mobilization" channel and fighting the "Islamic Resistance" factions.
The spokesman for the Kataeb Brigades, Kazem Al-Fartousi, told local media yesterday, Sunday, “The goal of the visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, to the United States of America, is to give guarantees that the PMF will be dissolved. Iraqi - Iranian relations.
And he believed that “Mustafa Al-Kazemi pledged allegiance to the United States of America, before he obtained the position of prime minister, and now he has started carrying out some actions in accordance with American interests, and will also work to fight the resistance factions,” threatening to say: “We will have real stops from these actions, if applied In reality".
In spite of this, but the leader of the "Al-Fateh" coalition, Ghazanfar Al-Battikh, indicated that the pressure on the removal of US forces from Iraq has "receded".
He added, "The Islamic Republic of Iran is the most concerned about the American presence in Iraq and the region," noting that "this presence constitutes a threat and danger, and may be a starting point for launching operations and strikes against Tehran," according to "Shafaq News".
He indicated that "the pressure regarding the removal of US forces from Iraq has eased at the present time," noting that "there are personalities and political parties, who speak in another way at night and in the day."
He added that "there are pressures from various parties to relieve pressure on the exit of American forces from Iraq, and these pressures from all sides, and it is not unlikely that there will be Iranian pressure on a group of factions to reduce pressure in this file at the present time, for the purpose of calming down with the United States of America." .
In contrast to the Shiite position, the Sunnis and the Kurds agree on the importance of continuing the relationship between Baghdad and Washington in all files, relying on American support and adopting a balanced policy in relations with everyone.
Member of Parliament, Zafer Al-Ani, saw that Iraq needs tangible American and international support in several areas, "Otherwise, the situation of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi is difficult."
And he added in a statement yesterday, that “the visit is undoubtedly important for both countries, but as the White House statement described it, it comes at a (critical time), and the criticality of time does not stem from the fact that the two presidents are preparing to run for the elections, but because it will test the extent to which the two sides are serious about a long strategic relationship. Long-term or breaking the bonds of this fragile alliance. He added, "The topics of the visit are important to us as Iraqis, as it will discuss security, economy, energy and health files," noting that "Iraq needs tangible American support in these areas that have become worrisome, and without this support, whether direct or by encouraging other countries to provide it, the situation will be Al-Kazemi made difficult and his chances of achieving his reform program are slim.
Likewise, the head of the "Kurdistan Democratic Party" bloc, MP Vian Sabri, confirmed that Al-Kazemi's visit "is necessary in expanding cooperation relations between the two countries," while noting that it signals an improvement in relations between the two countries.
Sabri told the official agency, "This visit is an indication of an improvement in relations between Iraq and the United States, especially since Al-Kazemi emphasized in his government program the importance of foreign relations with the countries of the world," noting that "relations are based on sovereignty, balance and cooperation." She added that "the visit is necessary to discuss bilateral files, to enhance coordination and security cooperation in the face of terrorism, and to health cooperation in the face of Corona, in addition to economic cooperation in the fields of investment and energy."
Bright Besan
Arab Jerusalem
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By DinarThug
CNN. Broadcasting The Ninth Indicator That Iraq Is Back On Track - As Provided By The DV Members !
Go Ahead And Jump On Out There With Ur Bad Self HorseSoldier...
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Report: 8 indicators that Iraq is back on track
6th August, 2020
A report by the "Wall Street Journal" said that Iraq is finally back on the right track, although it is going through an unenviable situation at the present time as a result of the Corona pandemic and the conflict of regional and international wills within its territories.
The report monitored several indicators cited by the American Brookings Institution confirming progress in many ways in the country from 2003 until today.
First: The country's population has increased from about 25 million in the last years of Saddam Hussein’s rule to 40 million today. According to the newspaper, this in itself is neither good nor bad, but it does mean that Iraq is large enough to be an important player in Middle East politics.
Second: The per capita gross domestic product has risen to nearly six thousand dollars compared to less than four thousand two decades ago. The newspaper report indicates that it is certain that there is still great poverty in Iraq, corruption is rampant, and job prospects for Iraqi youth are modest, but nevertheless, there have been positive economic developments.
Third: Oil production has increased from about 2.5 million barrels per day in the last years of Saddam’s rule to about 4.5 million barrels now, and export revenues from oil have tripled on average since 2002.
Fourth: The annual rate of internal displacement has more than halved since the defeat of ISIS. ISIS.
Fifth: Many indicators of the quality of life have improved significantly over the past two decades. Cell phones, which were restricted to the Ba'athist elite, are now everywhere, and the total number of users is roughly equal to the population. The total internet users are now around 10 million.
Sixth: Life expectancy increased from 67 years in 2002 to about 73 years today.
Seventh: The number of modern sanitation facilities has increased, which now reaches more than 40 percent of the population, compared to 32 percent before 2003. More than half of the population has access to safe drinking water as well, although this issue still needs to be done. Greater efforts.
Eighth: The literacy rate at the national level has increased from 74 percent at the turn of the century to 85 percent today.
The Wall Street Journal report concludes that, however, there is still a long way to go for Iraq to achieve the desired political and economic stability, in light of the popular protests that erupted last year, high indicators of corruption and a decline in freedom of the press.
The protests began on the first of last October and lasted for several months, during which hundreds of thousands of Iraqis demanded jobs and services and the departure of the ruling elite, which they said were corrupt. The protests led to the resignation of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, who was replaced in May by Mustafa al-Kazemi, the former head of the intelligence service.
Iraq, which relies on oil exports for most of its revenues, has been suffering from corruption and mismanagement for many years and was ranked 161 out of 168 countries in Transparency International’s annual report on corruption for 2015. Iraq is currently ranked 156 out of 180 countries in the global rankings for freedom. The press, published by Reporters Without Borders.
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8 indications that Iraq is back on the "right track" LINK
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By DinarThug
CNN. Broadcasting From An Iraqi Border Crossing While A Herd Of Sheep Passes Thru To Iran - But The Guys Counting Them Keep Falling Asleep !
Iraq begins paying its debts to Iran with goods
07/25 2020 08:29:49 PM
Baghdad / extent
The Secretary General of the Iranian-Iraqi Chamber of Commerce Hamid Hosseini announced the establishment of a company in Iraq to settle Baghdad's debts to Tehran, which amount to about five billion dollars, according to a report published by Iranian websites.
Hosseini told Farda radio that the company, which will work for the Iranian government, will purchase food commodities to pay off the debts. He explained that, based on a mutual agreement between the two countries, last month, Iran will provide the new company with a list of "commodities and raw materials" it needs, and the company will purchase and ship it to Iran. And Iraq owes Iran the money and gas it imports from it. The payment of Iraqi debts comes through goods, not cash, because Iran is subject to US banking sanctions, so Baghdad cannot transfer foreign currencies to it. According to Radio Farda, Iran is able to import goods only from Iraq, also because of the US sanctions. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdel Nasser Hamti, announced, last month, from Baghdad, that Iraq had agreed to settle its debts, related to gas and electricity, to Tehran, by providing food and medicine.
He said that the debt funds will be used, in the Iraqi Bank of TBI, to pay for the "commodities" that will be purchased by the newly established company. Iran's non-oil exports to Iraq, excluding electricity and gas, reached nine billion dollars in 2018, while its total imports from Iraq reached only 59 million dollars. Since the beginning of the Iranian calendar year, on March 21, 2019, Tehran has stopped publishing details of its foreign trade. It is worth noting that Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi held talks recently with Iranian leaders on his first official visit abroad since he took office in May.
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By DinarThug
CNN. Broadcasting fundamental changes in the central bank during the coming period !
Washington-Baghdad Dialogue: America wants to strictly implement the sanctions list
7/21/2020
About two weeks before the second session of the strategic dialogue between the United States and Iraq, in which Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi is to participate, an Iraqi official revealed that Washington included a paragraph related to the names of Iraqi, Syrian, Iranian and Lebanese personalities that the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on in the past two years. The paragraph is related to discussing the seriousness of the Iraqi banks ’commitment to not dealing with these names, as well as discussing some of them escaping sanctions through activities managed by relatives or agents in their favor. The source pointed out that the Al-Kazemi government is in the process of undertaking major reforms in this area, specifically within the Central Bank of Iraq, the body responsible for the matter.
Al-Kazemi will participate in the second American-Iraqi dialogue session, during an upcoming official visit to Washington at the end of this July, according to what was previously revealed by Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.
US officials are convinced of the existence of fraud within Iraq, enabling those involved in the sanctions to continue their commercial and financial activities
During the past two years, the US Treasury Department has continuously announced the announcement, and through official statements issued by it, on the inclusion of a number of Iraqi personalities and companies on the sanctions list, accompanied by convictions of them, related to what it says are crimes and violations in the field of human rights and financial corruption they committed, And also their cooperation with the Lebanese "Hezbollah" and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Among the most prominent of these names are the director of the “Islamic Bank of the Country”, the politician Aras Habib, the governors of Salahuddin and Nineveh, Ahmad al-Jubouri and Nawfal Hammadi al-Akoub, the politician Khamis al-Khanjar, the leader of the militia “Asa’ib” Qais al-Khazali and his brother Laith al-Khazali, and a leader in the “Popular Mobilization” Hussein Faleh Lami. This is in addition to the leader of the "Babylonian" militia, Ryan Al-Kildani, the leader of the "Shabak" militia, Waad al-Qud, and the "al-Nujaba" militia, Akram al-Kaabi.
According to a senior Iraqi official, there are officials in the US Treasury Department convinced of the existence of fraud within Iraq, which enabled those involved in the sanctions, whether Iraqis, Syrians, Lebanese or Iranians, to continue their commercial and financial activities, and to obtain hard currency, which prompted the Americans to include a full paragraph In the second dialogue session, Baghdad calls for reforms to be made. The source pointed out that American officials accuse the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi of not responding to the sanctions, and of allowing many of those listed on its regulations to withdraw funds or transfer funds or carry out sales and purchases through agents and relatives, and with the knowledge of the Central Bank of Iraq and other local banks.
The Iraqi official also revealed that the Al-Kazemi government will make additional pledges to tighten commitment to US sanctions, and to carry out reforms within the Central Bank of Iraq, and an investigation will be opened with the competent authorities to find out the real reasons behind the failure to implement decisions in this regard may expose Iraq to sanctions. The source acknowledged that there are political and factional influences (armed factions) linked to Iran on the central bank and on other oversight bodies, and that any commitment to the sanctions is considered by the authorities implementing the pressures as labor in favor of the United States.
Al-Kazemi’s government will make additional pledges to tighten compliance with sanctions, and to carry out reforms within the central bank
The source emphasized that for these reasons, Al-Kazemi intends to make fundamental changes in the central bank during the coming period.
For his part, the former official at the Central Bank of Iraq, Mahmoud Dagher, in connection with the "new Arab", stressed his country's commitment to the American sanctions issued against the personalities and companies, stressing that "it is impossible for Iraq not to implement such decisions issued by the American treasury, nor will it risk Not to implement American decisions, as important. Dagher recalled that the Iraqi government "issued a circular to banks under the names of those who were included in the sanctions list, and transfers from them to them were stopped," stressing his country's commitment "to implement such a decision if it was issued against any party or person."
The former official in the "Central Bank of Iraq" stressed that his country’s failure to implement the US Treasury Department’s decisions constituted an economic risk to Iraq and the Iraqis, which would stop all financial transfers to Iraq, and for this reason the bank is obliged to implement the sanctions issued against the Iraqi personalities, whatever they may be.
On the other hand, a member of the Security and Defense Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, on the authority of the “Al-Fath” coalition, Karim Alaiwi, said that “his bloc is awaiting a position on the part of Al-Kazemi’s government regarding the rejection of unilateral sanctions against Iraqi personalities and entities.” It has the intention to hold talks with the American side about it, as it is political sanctions, and is not based on any realistic evidence. Aliwi said in an interview with Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the Al-Kazemi government should complete this task by rejecting any kind of sanctions that affect any Iraqi figure who is not convicted by the local judiciary, and working to remove names from any American list.
But one of the members of the negotiating delegation in the first dialogue session, which was held via a television circle last month between American and Iraqi officials, assured Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the files of the second session were not definitively determined, and they may be comprehensive due to Al-Kazemi’s presence in Washington and his supposed meetings with senior administration officials. American, but he made it clear that it is primarily about terrorism and strengthening Iraq’s security and military capabilities, the financial and health crises, electricity and strengthening the rule of law, fighting financial corruption and threatening armed groups linked to Iran, and the American military presence. And he considered that the file of Iraq’s commitment to the sanctions imposed on Iran, and on various personalities and parties inside and outside Iraq, would be within the political file that is under discussion with the prime minister.
Just deputies
New Arab
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By DinarThug
CNN. Broadcasting With The Keys - The exchange rate is one of the “keys” to the solution !
The Iraqi economy ... the predicament of the situation and the problem of the solution
KARAR AL-ASADI SUN, 19-07-2020, PM 8:06
By: Dr. Imad Abdul Latif Salem
The price of Brent "Al Mubarak" crude today 19-7-2020 .. is 43.10 dollars a barrel.
And according to estimates of the average annual price of Brent crude, the price of selling our blessed oil is usually estimated in our blessed public budget for the blessed fiscal year 2020 ... which is the general budget that has continued in its blessed "voluntary" absence for nearly a year.
The amount of public expenditures in this "absent" or "absent" budget is estimated at 100 trillion Iraqi dinars, or $ 80 billion (not blessed, of course).
However, not all of Iraq’s blessed oil is light and blessed. Much of our oil is heavy, like us, and blessed.
The average selling price of our blessed oil is 6 to 9 dollars per barrel.
Therefore, the sale price of oil, estimated in the general budget for the fiscal year, will either range, or is supposed to range (as a personal estimate) between $ 26-30 per barrel.
This means that the blessed budget deficit will increase .. and that our financial, economic, and social crises will worsen, especially with our disastrous failure to properly deal with the outbreak of the COVID 19 epidemic, and our inability to make a fair trade-off between the death of people “biologically” from the epidemic, and between their death “economically” "As a result of their suffering from worsening unemployment and high rates of poverty among the population.
This means that the blessed austerity will increase, and the salaries of employees and retirees, and the livelihoods of those with limited incomes, not all blessed, will be the blessed victim of all of this.
Total salaries of “workers’ compensation ”are estimated at 3.3 trillion dinars per month, while the salaries of retirees are estimated at 1.3 trillion dinars per month, or a total of 4.7 trillion dinars per month (56.4 trillion dinars annually).
And if these "personal estimates" are logical, or close to the reality of the situation, then this means that the salaries of employees and retirees constitute 56.4% of the total allocations of the state budget for the fiscal year 2020, and this is the highest percentage, or "share" of salaries in the general budgets of countries , Among all the countries of the world.
Also, as a personal estimate, the government (even if oil prices increase slightly at the end of this year), and even if it is able to continue to pay the salaries of July and August 2020, it may be unable to do so (or that it may face enormous difficulties in "a measure" That) in September 2020 .. and that the situation will become more difficult in the months that follow, unless a “party” provides an urgent “rescue” package, to avoid worse than the government's inability to pay the salaries of employees and retirees, in addition to securing sufficient funds to meet With its basic obligations.
In the last statement reported by the media about him, the Minister of Finance says: “The approval of the federal general budget for 2020 is excluded” (to be the same in the case of the 2014 budget) .. And that the government is working on preparing for the next year’s budget 2021, where We need 7.5 trillion dinars per month for operating expenses, and we will continue to borrow from local banks to finance salaries and ruling expenses. "And the government may resort to external borrowing to address the financial crisis.
It is assumed "economically" (and there are those who insist that no single economic law operates in a logical manner in Iraq) that the price of the US dollar rise against the Iraqi dinar, and that we be able to control the rhythm of that rise (if it occurs), so that it has direct and indirect positive effects ..And to avoid as much as possible its negative effects on the economy.
The exchange rate is one of the “keys” to the solution, but the blessed central bank can still defend the blessed “current” dinar exchange rate, in light of all these blessed “rational” expectations ... and that will continue to happen and happen, until God decides (not The "employers of" politics and economics in this "afflicted" country) ... was done.
Now, away from the "jurisprudence" and "personal estimates" of the data, we will urge an important, careful and accurate study, prepared by a group of beautiful Iraqi minds, working at the University of Kufa, and in the Central Bureau of Statistics, and issued in May 2020 by a center Al-Rafidain for Dialogue, which is entitled: "A case study: Poverty and living standards in Iraq in light of the repercussions of the Corona crisis" .. Among the most important contents of this study include the following *:
In January 2020, crude oil export revenue was $ 6.163 billion, at a rate of $ 60,139 per barrel.
In April 2020, crude oil export revenues decreased to only $ 1.423 billion, at a rate of $ 13.81 per barrel.
- The volume of gross domestic product achieved in 2019 amounted to about 262.9 billion dollars ... Because of the dual effect resulting from the decrease in oil prices and the decrease in other economic activities due to the effects of "Corona", the volume of this GDP for 2020 may decrease (assuming an average price of oil The amount of $ 30 a barrel, according to the best scenarios, and the closest to logic), to be in the range of 169 trillion dinars only (about 142 billion dollars). This means that this double crisis could cause the GDP of 2020 compared to 2019 to decrease by 36%.
The number of poor people in 2018 was estimated at 7.4 million, with a poverty rate of 20.5%. According to the 10% income or consumption scenario (which is the "basic case" scenario closest to reality in light of the current crisis), the poverty line in Iraq for 2020 was estimated at 123,200 thousand dinars / person / month. Hence, the poverty rate estimated according to this scenario is 22.8%, and the number of poor people is estimated at 9.120 million poor.
All this is happening, and Iran's blessed agreement with the big, blessed countries about its blessed nuclear file is subjected to the blessed "tramp" strikes, so that the impact of the strikes on us will be reversed in politics, security, and the economy.
And for those who ask his traditional question about the "solution" in this "case", there are many solutions that have been presented repeatedly to "decision makers" in this country ... and there are many plans, policies and strategies that have been approved (from the highest legislative and executive levels) And it was all left on the shelf, to be eaten by the dust of neglect, ignorance and forgetting .. Whether we agree or not with the current Minister of Finance, I personally do not think that he needs someone who is “to be seen” in this regard .. Also, he also does not need to sit with a group of Experts and consultants, together, to rediscover the wheel again, to put it under this decaying vehicle called "the Iraqi economy."
What we need, and what it "benefits" is not more "theories" and "jurisprudence" of experts and advisors ... rather that we have supreme sovereign interests "holy", agreed upon by the political "parties" controlling this country, and defending them fiercely, And with unrelenting political will.
What we need is that we are aware that we have no alternative to salvation from our complex economic crises, other than comprehensive and radical reform .. and that this reform has a cost .. and that this cost may be very prohibitive .. and we may continue to pay it for five, ten years Next .. We are the ones who do not tolerate delaying paying our salaries for only five days.
This year 2020 never seems blessed, from its blessed start, until the very moment when it is supposed to be blessed now.
Three presidencies blessed, Iraqis.
Mubarak's House of Representatives.
Blessed government.
Blessed ministers.
Mubarak government program.
But ... with the prices of oil not blessed (externally) .. and with chaos, confusion, and lack of horizon (internally), a lot of things may be unfortunate now, Iraqis.
Many things will not be okay ... neither in the short term nor in the medium term.
In the long run, this may happen ... that is, some things may be on Mayram.
However, many of us will be dead, and they will not be witnesses to that .. in that long term.
So ...
beautiful patience ... or beautiful
desertion ... blessed Iraqis.
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