Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content

The end of the oil age ... a report that predicts a bleak future for the Arab world


Recommended Posts

%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8
 
 
The end of the oil age ... a report that predicts a bleak future for the Arab world
 
 2020/07/17 16:03:20
 

Shafaq News / A report by the British "Economist" magazine expected that the era of oil in the Arab countries will end, which is witnessing an unprecedented crisis due to the drop in crude prices caused by the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

The magazine's report, which deals with economic affairs, dealt with the conditions of Arab countries as well as Iran, in light of the decline in demand for crude and the effects of this on the budgets of these countries, which began to shrink slowly.

The report set an example in Algeria, which said that its budget needs to reach the price of a barrel of oil to about $ 157 in order to recover, compared to Amman, which is relatively better, but it also needs to reach prices to $ 87 a barrel.

As for Kuwait, expectations indicate that the percentage of deficit in its budget for this year may reach 40 percent, while Iraq faces an acute crisis as a result of low revenues and the possibility of the government resorting to reducing employee salaries in order to face the crisis, according to the report.

The report notes that the situation is not very different in Saudi Arabia, which was "severely affected" by the drop in oil prices and the Corona pandemic, which forced it to impose new taxes and use part of its financial reserves to cover spending.

On the other hand, the impacts are expected to be less severe for Qatar and the Emirates, because they have huge sovereign wealth funds.

However, the report suggests that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will deplete their reserves of two trillion dollars by 2034, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund.

The consequences will not be limited to the oil countries, as the Economist magazine report finds that the neighboring Arab countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, will be the most affected by the low imports of the countries of the oil region.

And he confirms that these countries will feel pain as well, because they have long relied on their oil neighbors to operate their citizens. 

He adds that the value of financial transfers amounts to more than 10 per cent of the gross domestic product in some countries, in addition to that it is one of the largest beneficiaries of trade exchange, tourism and investments coming from oil countries.

 

https://www.shafaaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/انتهاء-عصر-النفط-تقرير-يتوقع-مستقبلا-قاتما-للعالم-العربي/

Link to post
Share on other sites

The era of Arab oil may "end soon" .. and this is the fate of the salaries of Iraqi employees

 Time: 7/19/2020 00:10:34

 

 

The era of Arab oil may "end soon" .. and this is the fate of the salaries of Iraqi employees
  
{International: Al Furat News} A report of the British "Economist" magazine occurred near the end of the era of oil in the Arab countries, which is witnessing an unprecedented crisis due to the drop in crude prices caused by the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

The magazine's report, which deals with economic affairs, dealt with the conditions of Arab countries as well as Iran, in light of the decline in demand for crude and the effects of this on the budgets of these countries, which began to shrink slowly.
The report set an example in Algeria, which said that its budget needs to reach the price of a barrel of oil to about $ 157 in order to recover, compared to Amman, which is relatively better, but it also needs to reach prices to $ 87 a barrel.
As for Kuwait, expectations indicate that the percentage of deficit in its budget for this year may reach 40 percent, while Iraq faces an acute crisis as a result of low revenues and the possibility of the government resorting to reducing employee salaries in order to face the crisis, according to the report.
The report notes that the situation is not very different in Saudi Arabia, which was "severely affected" by the drop in oil prices and the Corona pandemic, which forced it to impose new taxes and use part of its financial reserves to cover spending.
On the other hand, the effects are expected to be less severe for Qatar and the Emirates, because they have huge sovereign wealth funds.
However, the report suggests that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will deplete their trillion dollars in reserves by 2034, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund.
The consequences will not be limited to the oil countries, as the Economist magazine report finds that the neighboring Arab countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, will be the most affected by the low imports of the countries of the oil region.
And he confirms that these countries will feel pain as well, because they have long relied on their oil neighbors to operate their citizens.
He adds that the value of financial transfers amounts to more than 10 percent of the gross domestic product in some countries, in addition to that it is one of the biggest beneficiaries of trade exchange, tourism and investments coming from oil countries.
Urgent The International Monetary Fund Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in a press statement on Friday evening that "Corona's damage to the global economy until the end of 2021 is estimated at 12 trillion dollars, and that Corona's impact will be greater on the fragile countries and its economy will decline by 13%."
She stressed that "Lebanon is in a very difficult economic situation and needs to carry out difficult reforms to overcome its crisis, and I appeal to the Lebanese to work towards a unity of purpose in order to take measures to rebalance the economy." Committed to them. "
The director of the International Monetary Fund said that "the Gulf countries have been severely affected economically by Corona and the decline in oil prices, and we expect a greater contraction in the economic production of the Gulf countries by more than 7%."
Ammar Al-Masoudi

 

https://alforatnews.com/news/عصر-نفط-العرب-قد-ينتهي-قريباً-وهذا-مصير-رواتب-موظفي-العراق

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I counted 12 but at least the people really interested in this type of work. (Noticed two) Had their cell phones out to see what they need to do. Those guys will bring a long stick and have long lasting careers.

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Iraq.... for fifteen years you’ve been told to expand your economy in areas other than oil to reduce your dependency on oil.... did you listen? No you didn’t..... you deserve what you’ve got coming.... but hey.... maybe the powers that be will help you with your currency a little bit..... Iraq is full of MORONS.....

  • Upvote 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

The era of Arab oil may "end soon" .. and this is the fate of the salaries of Iraqi employees

 Time: 7/19/2020 00:10:34

 

 

The era of Arab oil may "end soon" .. and this is the fate of the salaries of Iraqi employees
  
{International: Al Furat News} A report of the British "Economist" magazine occurred near the end of the era of oil in the Arab countries, which is witnessing an unprecedented crisis due to the drop in crude prices caused by the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

The magazine's report, which deals with economic affairs, dealt with the conditions of Arab countries as well as Iran, in light of the decline in demand for crude and the effects of this on the budgets of these countries, which began to shrink slowly.
The report set an example in Algeria, which said that its budget needs to reach the price of a barrel of oil to about $ 157 in order to recover, compared to Amman, which is relatively better, but it also needs to reach prices to $ 87 a barrel.
As for Kuwait, expectations indicate that the percentage of deficit in its budget for this year may reach 40 percent, while Iraq faces an acute crisis as a result of low revenues and the possibility of the government resorting to reducing employee salaries in order to face the crisis, according to the report.
The report notes that the situation is not very different in Saudi Arabia, which was "severely affected" by the drop in oil prices and the Corona pandemic, which forced it to impose new taxes and use part of its financial reserves to cover spending.
On the other hand, the effects are expected to be less severe for Qatar and the Emirates, because they have huge sovereign wealth funds.
However, the report suggests that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will deplete their trillion dollars in reserves by 2034, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund.
The consequences will not be limited to the oil countries, as the Economist magazine report finds that the neighboring Arab countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, will be the most affected by the low imports of the countries of the oil region.
And he confirms that these countries will feel pain as well, because they have long relied on their oil neighbors to operate their citizens.
He adds that the value of financial transfers amounts to more than 10 percent of the gross domestic product in some countries, in addition to that it is one of the biggest beneficiaries of trade exchange, tourism and investments coming from oil countries.
Urgent The International Monetary Fund Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in a press statement on Friday evening that "Corona's damage to the global economy until the end of 2021 is estimated at 12 trillion dollars, and that Corona's impact will be greater on the fragile countries and its economy will decline by 13%."
She stressed that "Lebanon is in a very difficult economic situation and needs to carry out difficult reforms to overcome its crisis, and I appeal to the Lebanese to work towards a unity of purpose to take measures to rebalance the economy." She added, "We continue our engagement with the Lebanese government, but we have not yet reached an agreement and have not yet achieved any progress in the negotiations, but we will remain Committed to them. "
The director of the International Monetary Fund said that "the Gulf countries have been severely affected economically by Corona and the decline in oil prices, and we expect a greater contraction in the economic production of the Gulf countries by more than 7%."
Ammar Al-Masoudi

 
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Economist: The era of Gulf oil is over .. Iraq faces a state of collapse

19:36 - 7/18/2020
 
  
%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-1-696x392

Information / follow-up ..

The Economist magazine said that the era of oil is over for the Arab Gulf states and that they are no longer able to bridge the deficits in their budgets due to low oil prices.

The magazine added in a report that there is an opportunity to move away from the era of hydrocarbon energy.

Black material prices fell in light of the comprehensive closures of countries to confront the virus. The oil-producing countries ’resources are expected to decrease by half of what they obtained in 2019.

And the International Monetary Fund predicts a contraction of its economies by 7.3 percent even after the virus recedes, as an oversupply of oil supplies will lead to a drop in its prices. Arab countries are facing a situation in which they cannot bridge the budget deficit, and they are required to adapt to the new situation.

Expectations indicate that the percentage of the deficit in Kuwait in its budget for this year may reach 40 percent, while Iraq faces an acute crisis as a result of low revenues and the possibility of the government resorting to reducing employee salaries in order to face the crisis, according to the report.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are likely to drain their $ 2 trillion reserves by 2034, according to the International Monetary Fund's forecast.

The magazine believes that the challenges faced by the Arab countries are terrifying. She notes that the situation is not much different in Saudi Arabia, which was severely affected by the drop in oil prices and the Corona pandemic, which forced it to impose new taxes and use part of its financial reserves to cover spending.

On the other hand, the impacts are expected to be less severe for Qatar and the Emirates, because they have huge sovereign wealth funds. And things are no better in Iraq , which is one of the major oil exporters and faces an almost total collapse. According to the magazine.

The magazine says that the effects will appear in all of the region. As oil prices drop, some of these jobs will disappear and Egypt will suffer as well. The same is true of Jordan, which has long relied on the Gulf to absorb the unemployed masses, and these countries depend on the Gulf countries as customers for their products. A third of Jordan and Lebanon exports go to the Gulf countries that send tourists. 25 h has ended

 

https://www.almaalomah.com/2020/07/18/485534/

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Economist: The era of oil for the Arab Gulf states is about to end

Publish date: 18.07.2020 | 16:48 GMT |

Last update: 18.07.2020

The Economist said in its report, "There is an opportunity to move away from the era of hydrocarbon energy."

She stressed, "Black matter prices have fallen against the background of the comprehensive closures of countries to face the outbreak of the Corona virus, expecting that" the resources of oil producing countries will decrease to half of what they obtained in 2019. "

She pointed out that the International Monetary Fund expects a contraction of the economies of these countries by 7.3%, even after the decline of the Corona pandemic, noting that the reason is "oversupply in oil supplies", which will lead to lower oil prices.

The study showed that "Arab countries are facing a situation with which they cannot bridge the budget deficit, and they are required to adapt to the new situation.

Projections indicate that the percentage of the deficit in Kuwait in its budget for this year may reach 40%, while Iraq faces an acute crisis as a result of lower revenues and the possibility of the government resorting to reducing employee salaries in order to face the crisis, according to the report.

It also expected that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council will exhaust their reserves of two trillion dollars by 2034, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund.

As for Saudi Arabia, the study says, the situation is not much different from the rest of the region, which was severely affected by the drop in oil prices and the Corona pandemic, which forced Riyadh to impose new taxes and use part of its financial reserves to cover spending.

On the other hand, the study expected that the effects will be less severe for Qatar and the Emirates, because they possess huge funds for sovereign wealth.

Egypt will also suffer from the crisis, and the same is true for Jordan, which has long relied on the Gulf, as these countries depend on the Gulf countries as customers for their products. A third of Jordan and Lebanon exports go to the Gulf countries that send tourists, according to the study.

The Middle East suffers from the highest unemployment rates among young people in the world, and the economist says: "Oil has financed unproductive economies, supported systems, and brought in unwanted foreign interventions."

Source: "The Economist "

 

https://arabic.rt.com/business/1135693-دراسة-عصر-النفط-العربي-الانتهاء/

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
The Economist: The end of the oil age in the Arab world is imminent
 
940.jpg
 
 
 

The Economy News - Baghdad

It seems that the end of the oil age in the Arab world is imminent, given the economic turmoil the world is currently experiencing, and everyone in the region will feel the pain of this transformation soon .

This is what was stated in a report of the British Economist magazine , which stated that the path of the rise in the budgets of Arab oil dependent countries has stopped, as Algeria needs for example that the price of Brent crude (an international oil index) rise to $ 157 a barrel, while it needs The Sultanate of Oman has a price of $ 87, and no Arab oil producing country - with the exception of Qatar - can control its budgets at the current selling price of about $ 40 a barrel .

The Corona pandemic crisis came to complicate the matter further, as oil prices fell to record levels, forcing Arab countries to take drastic steps. The Algerian government announced last May that it would cut spending in half, while Iraq intended - one of the largest oil producers in the world - Reducing government salaries, and the Sultanate of Oman is struggling to obtain loans after credit rating agencies downgraded their sovereign rating and changed their outlook from stable to negative, and the deficit in Kuwait may reach 40% of GDP, the highest level in the world .

Oil market turmoil

The Economist stresses that the world's economies are increasingly moving away from fossil fuels, inflation of supply and increasing competitiveness of clean energy sources, indicating that oil will remain cheap in the foreseeable future .

She adds that the current turmoil in the oil markets is not just a passing cloud, but rather an indication of what the future will be, as the world entered a new stage characterized by low prices, the countries of the Middle East and North Africa will be most affected .

 

The expectations this year were likely that Arab countries would reap about $ 300 billion in oil sales, an amount that is not sufficient to cover their expenses, but since last March things turned upside down, and Arab governments have been forced to cut costs and increase taxes and borrowing, and many of them have been depleted. - In the forefront of which is Saudi Arabia - its cash reserves that were intended to finance the reforms .

 

Last February, before the outbreak of the emerging Corona Virus crisis, the International Monetary Fund expected that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council would exhaust all their reserves of $ 2 trillion by 2034 .

 

The effects of the current crisis will also extend to the neighboring non-oil-producing Arab countries (European ).

Non-producing countries are affected

The magazine emphasized that the effects of the current crisis will also extend to neighboring non-oil-producing Arab countries, which have long relied on their neighbors to employ their citizens, and the value of remittances to some of them amounted to about 10% of their GDP .

 

I gave an example in each of Lebanon, which increased the crisis of low oil prices in the Gulf from the severity of the economic crisis that it is going through, while the crisis in Egypt and Jordan - who work about 3% and 5% (respectively) of their nationals in Gulf countries - will cause a significant decrease in the value of remittances. .

 

The crisis will also lead - according to the magazine - to overturn the social contract in countries that have long relied on immigration to export its unemployment crisis. For example, 35,000 university students graduate annually in Lebanon, the local economy employs only 5 thousand of them, while most of them are forced to search for work abroad , And specifically in the Gulf .

 

In Egypt, successive governments used to provide unskilled labor for the Gulf states, where more than one-fifth of Egyptian migrants to Saudi Arabia, for example, in the eighties of the last century were "illiterate" - according to the magazine - but the situation today has changed .

 

The companies of the Arab countries will also be affected in turn by the decrease in demand from the Gulf countries, and the absence of Gulf tourists will significantly affect the revenues of the tourism sector in countries that depend mainly on Gulf tourism such as Egypt and Lebanon, as tourists from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Kuwait make up about a third of their tourism revenues .

 

The absence of Gulf tourists will affect the tourism sector in countries that mainly depend on Gulf tourism (Al-Jazeera )

External interventions

On the other hand, the Economist believes that a Middle East less central to energy supply in the world will be less important to US policy, and Russia may seek to fill the void that the American retreat will leave in the region, but Moscow's regional interests are limited, such as its determination to maintain its Mediterranean port in Syrian Tartus, and does not wish - or may not - be able to extend the influence of its security umbrella in the Arabian Peninsula .

 

On the other hand, China has remained immune to interference in the region's policies, and has only committed itself to nurturing its economic interests by concluding construction contracts for example in Algeria, participating in managing Egyptian ports, or concluding a wide range of diversified deals with Gulf partners .

 

But with the increasing poverty of the Arab countries, the nature of their relationship with China may change, as happened with Iran, as the US sanctions prompted Tehran to discuss a long-term investment deal with Beijing, whereby Chinese companies will be able to invest in several and varied sectors such as ports and communications .

 

This "strategic partnership" - as I described - raises fears among some observers that it will open the way for China to control the infrastructure it is building in Iran, as it did in Asian and African countries .

 

The magazine considers that the decline in oil revenues in Arab countries may push it to adopt this form of partnership with Beijing, which will further complicate its relations with Washington .

 

It concludes that the region's youth have the same concerns as a result of the current economic crisis - that is, migration in search of solutions - for Egypt appears to be a country that collapses due to its weight, and Jordan is living a permanent economic crisis, while the series of frustrations continues in Tunisia despite being the starting point of a revolution that spread its spark to the whole region. Certainly, "the end of the oil age" can bring change with it, but it will bring pain first.

 

 Date added: 07/19/2020

 

http://economy-news.net/content.php?id=21094

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Economist: The Age of Oil for the Cooperation Council Countries is drawing to a close + Vide

 Sunday, July 19, 2020 

London (The World) 2020.07.19 - The Economist confirmed in a report that the era of oil has ended for the countries of the Cooperation Council in the Persian Gulf in light of the comprehensive closures of countries to confront the Corona virus, and expected that the GCC countries will deplete their reserves of two trillion dollars by 2034 according to the expectations of the IMF International.

 

The World - Economy

The era of oil will soon end for the countries of the Cooperation Council in the Persian Gulf, while it will face difficulties in bridging its budget deficit due to low crude prices .. This is what the Economist magazine expected in a report stressing the need to move away from the era of hydrocarbon energy.

The Economist confirmed that the prices of black matter declined due to the comprehensive closures of countries to face the outbreak of the Corona virus, expecting the resources of oil producing countries to drop to half of what they obtained in 2019.

She pointed out that the International Monetary Fund expected in the month of February last contraction in the economies of these countries by 7.3 percent even after the decline of the Corona pandemic, due to the glut of oil supplies, which will lead to lower oil prices.

The Economist report indicated that the GCC countries will exhaust their reserves of two trillion dollars by 2034, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund, adding that Saudi Arabia has spent since at least 45 billion dollars of its money.

She pointed out that for the purpose of striking a balance, the Riyadh authorities suspended the cost of living allowance for workers in the country, raised gasoline prices and doubled the sales tax three times.

But despite all of that, the budget deficit of this country may exceed $ 110 billion this year, equivalent to 16 percent of GDP.

On the other hand, the Economist's forecast indicates that the percentage of deficit in Kuwait's budget for this year may reach 40 percent of GDP.

On the other hand, the study expected that the effects will be less severe for both Qatar and the Emirates, because they possess huge funds for sovereign wealth.

For more, watch the attached video at the link

 

.https://www.alalamtv.net/news/5054501/إيكونوميست-عصر-النفط-لدول-مجلس-التعاون-على-وشك-النهاية--فيديو

 

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

LINK

Oil prices drop amid concern over demand as a result of corona

22034.jpg
 

20th July, 2020

Oil prices fell, on Monday, amid concerns about demand as a result of the Coruna virus crisis and the OPEC agreement to reduce cuts

Analysts fear the worsening conditions and the return of closures and isolation restrictions in some countries in light of the high number of infections with Corona virus around the world, approaching 14 million cases

This increased OPEC + agreement to reduce unprecedented cuts in supply in August, by two million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day until December

At ten o'clock in the morning Baghdad time, the prices of September Brent mix decreased 42 cents, or 97%, to 42.70 dollars, while the US crude prices also decreased 43 cents to 40.33 dollars

"The endless Corona Virus pandemic may force countries to reimpose comprehensive closures, which will slow economic growth and suppress energy demand," said Avtar Sandu, commodities director at Philip Futures

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

British report "Scary": the golden age of oil is "over" .. America is preparing to leave the Middle East and Arab countries awaiting collapse and long wars!

2020-07-23
525987Image1.jpg?resize=696%2C437&ssl=1

Yassin Iraq: Follow-up

The British Economist magazine, concerned with economic affairs, published a report that talked about the end of the golden age of Arab oil, and the collapse that will face Arab oil and non-oil dependent countries, as well as long-term wars.

 

The magazine said in a report that it followed, "Iraq," that "it seems that the Arab countries, which represent a large source of oil production in the world and most of their economies depend on oil sales, are facing a bitter truth and a great historical turn. The major economic crises these countries are going through, and this makes everyone in the region feel the pain of this fundamental change. ”

 

 

The report covered in detail the economic conditions of Arab countries, most of which depend on oil. For example, it indicates that Algeria needs to increase the price of a barrel of Brent oil to 157 dollars, and the Sultanate of Oman needs a barrel price of 87 dollars.

 

The Economist report says that no Arab country, with the exception of Qatar, can control its general budget with the current oil prices, which are just over $ 40 a barrel.

 

The Covid-19 epidemic crisis exacerbated and complicated the problem. Where oil prices have deteriorated record. Which forced the Arab countries to take radical measures. Last May, the Algerian government announced that public spending would be cut in half. While Iraq - one of the largest oil producers in the world - intends to reduce the salaries of government employees. While the Sultanate of Oman is trying to obtain external loans after the rating agencies have lowered their rank in terms of growth and their expectations for the Sultanate are negative, Kuwait may not be in a better position and the deficit in its GDP may reach 40%, which is the highest in the world.

 

Oil markets flounder

The Economist says that the world's continued economic drift away from traditional fuels (oil, gas, and coal, for example) has led to inflation in the markets, and the growing capacity of clean energy sources is an indication that oil will remain cheap in the near future.

The British magazine adds that the current deterioration in the oil market is not a temporary event, but rather an indication of what this product will be like in the future. The world has entered a stage where oil remains cheap and the MENA countries will remain the biggest losers under it.

It was expected that the Arab countries would reap about $ 300 billion in oil sales this year, an amount sufficient to provide for their needs, but the verse reversed since last March, and Arab governments were forced to cut costs and increase taxes and borrow, while many of them resorted to using their reserves, especially Saudi Arabia. Which had a lot of reserves it wanted to support its reforms.

Last February, just before the outbreak of the Corona epidemic in Arab countries, the International Monetary Fund expected that the countries of the Gulf Council would spend all their savings of $ 2 trillion by 2034.

 

Non-oil producing countries

The British magazine report says that the current crisis will extend to neighboring countries that are not oil producers, but have depended for long periods on their neighbors to employ their citizens. In some countries, the money transferred by their citizens working in neighboring countries was 10% of the total revenues of these countries.

The report represented Lebanon, where the decline in oil prices in the Gulf countries deepened its financial crisis, and this crisis led to a decline in the amounts that were transferred to both Egypt and Jordan, while 3% of Egypt's total revenue came from these remittances and 5% of this The total in Jordan comes from it.

This crisis will also lead to social changes, as countries that have relied for many years on exporting migrants to solve their unemployment problem, such as Lebanon, which graduates 35 thousand students in its universities annually and the local economy occupies only 5% of this number and the rest go to other countries, especially the Gulf countries in search of Jobs.

Successive governments in Egypt used to provide manpower to the Gulf states, as a fifth of migrants were heading to Saudi Arabia, but the situation has now changed.

The companies of these Arab countries will also face a lack of demand for their services on the part of the Gulf states, and the noticeable decline in the number of Gulf tourists will affect the revenues of the tourism sector in countries such as Lebanon and Egypt that depend mainly on Gulf tourists, so a third of tourists from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait were heading to those Countries.

 

External interference

The Economist believes that the Middle East is less central to energy production for the world, and American policy will be less interested in it, and then Russia will try to fill the void left by America's withdrawal from the region, but Moscow's regional interests are insisting on protecting the central beaches of Syria in Tartus, and according to the Economist, Russia may not You want or can not extend the umbrella of its interests more than this on the Arabian Peninsula.

On the other hand, China remains outside interference in the policies of the region. It suffices to take care of its commercial interests through construction contracts in Algeria, for example, or to sign wide-ranging contracts with some Gulf countries.

However, as the Arab countries get poorer, the nature of relations with China will change, as happened in the case of Iran, as the US sanctions imposed on Iran have resorted to negotiating a long-term investment contract with Beijing, whereby Chinese companies invest in various and diverse sectors such as telecommunications and ports.

This "strategic partnership", as it was called, created fears among some observers that it would open the door in front of China to interfere in Iranian infrastructure, as it had done before in many Asian and African countries.

The magazine believes that the decline in oil revenues in Arab countries will force it to resort to a partnership with China similar to that between Beijing and Iran, and this will lead to the deterioration of its relations with America.

The Economist concluded by saying: The youth of the region suffer from the same fear of the current financial crisis and that is why they intend to emigrate. For example, Egypt is expected to collapse because of the burden that will fall on it, while Jordan will suffer from a continuous financial crisis, and Tunisia will rotate in its continuing financial setbacks. There is no doubt that the end The oil age will bring with it changes, but it will bring pain and suffering before the changes.

 

From suffering to another

Economies based on oil production and sale in the markets will face a crisis as oil prices continue to decline, and most countries whose economies depend on oil will suffer dozens of other political, economic, social, and military problems, including countries that suffer from long-term wars.

Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and even Egypt, despite the different percentages of their participation in the global oil market, but all are suffering from a continuous war and destruction in infrastructure, unemployment and many social crises that will deepen the financial crisis to lead to more pain and suffering for them with the expected decline Sun of the golden age of oil.

https://yesiraq.com/تقرير-بريطاني-مخيف-العصر-الذهبي-للنف/

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

OPEC is seriously considering the "terrifying" scenario .. Will the oil era end soon?

2020-07-28
8_9-scaled.jpg?resize=696%2C464&ssl=1

Yassin Iraq: Follow-up

It is possible that the Corona virus crisis has caused the long-anticipated change in the balance of oil demand and that this shift has become the focus of thinking within OPEC.

 

The pandemic has reduced the daily consumption of crude oil by a third this year at a time when increased use of electric vehicles and the shift to renewable energy sources are lowering expectations for long-term oil demand.

 

This prompted some officials in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the strongest supporter of oil since its founding 60 years ago, to ask whether the collapse of demand witnessed by the world this year marks a permanent shift and how best to manage supplies if the era of oil is nearing its end.

 

"People are beginning to wake up to a new reality and try to manage what is happening," an industry source close to OPEC told Reuters, adding that the possibility that consumption would not fully recover at all "exists in the minds of all the major players."

 

Reuters interviewed seven current and former officials and other sources linked to OPEC, and most of these officials and sources requested that their names not be released.

 

They said that the crisis that took place this year and pushed the price of oil below $ 16 a barrel has prompted OPEC and its thirteen members to launch questions about long-established views of expectations for the growth of oil demand.

 

Just 12 years ago, OPEC countries enjoyed high liquidity when the price of oil exceeded $ 145 a barrel.

 

Now it faces a fundamental transformation if consumption enters a permanent decline stage. The organization will have to be more compact in its management of cooperation with other producers such as Russia in order to maximize declining revenue. It will also have to work to ensure that relations within it are not degraded by the rush of any party to defend its market share in light of the shrinking demand without taking into account the interests of the rest of the members.

 

“OPEC’s mission will be more difficult in the future because of lower demand and higher production from outside,” said Hassan Qabazard, OPEC's director of research from 2006 to 2013, whose work now includes advising hedge funds and investment banks on OPEC policy.

 

An official working in energy studies at the Ministry of Oil in one of the major OPEC members said that the shocks faced by oil demand in the past led to permanent changes in the behavior of consumers. He added that the matter was unlikely to be different this time.

 

He continued, "The demand does not return to pre-crisis levels or that takes time." The main concern is that the demand for oil will peak in the next few years due to the rapid technological progress, especially in car batteries.

 

 

OPEC is preparing to decline the demand for black gold

In 2019, the world consumed 99.7 million barrels of oil per day and OPEC expected consumption to rise to 101 million barrels per day in 2020.

 

However, the repercussions of the pandemic at the global level led to the halt of traffic and street cars and prompted OPEC to reduce demand in 2020 to 91 million barrels per day, while expectations still indicate that demand in 2021 will be below its levels in 2019.

 

For a long time, producing countries, energy analysts and oil companies have been trying to predict when the world will reach the "oil peak", the point at which consumption begins to decline continuously. However, demand has been rising steadily year after year with exceptions from time to time in periods of economic recession.

 

However, OPEC has cut back on expectations. In 2007, it expected global demand in 2030 to reach 118 million barrels per day. By last year, demand expectations for 2030 had decreased to 108.3 million barrels per day.

 

An OPEC source said that the OPEC report for next November is expected to include another reduction in the cut.

 

OPEC officials declined to comment on demand forecasts or the policy related to this report. But officials said that history shows OPEC's ability to adapt to changes in the market.

 

Outside OPEC, consumption expectations vary. Oil companies have lowered their forecasts for long-term crude oil prices as demand prospects diminish, thereby reducing the value of their assets as a result.

 

DNVGL, the global consultancy, believes demand has likely peaked in 2019.

 

The percentage of the share of oil in the global energy mix has witnessed a steady shrinkage in recent decades, as it declined from about 40 percent in 1994 to 33 percent in 2019, despite the high volume of consumption with the increase in the number of cars and the growth of air travel and the petrochemical industry, which increased its production of plastic materials. And others.

 

This situation may be changing now with the increase in production of electric cars and the problems faced by the aviation industry to recover from the repercussions of the pandemic. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) does not expect to reach again operating levels for 2019 until 2023 at the earliest.

 

A second OPEC official involved in setting the forecast said, "Once the air movement recovers by the end of 2023, the demand will return to its normal level other than competition from other energy resources." .

 

This places OPEC in front of a growing challenge. Most of the members of the organization, which holds 80 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, are heavily dependent on oil.

 

Oil prices, swinging above $ 40 a barrel, are still below the level needed by most member states ’governments to strike a balance between revenues and expenditures including Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the organization.

 

Crises are no stranger to OPEC, which is a source of about a third of global supplies. Shocks in supply during the Gulf wars of the 1980s and 1990s and in the first decade of the third millennium managed methods of adaptation when non-member oil producers opened their taps, as was the case in the US shale oil industry in the last decade.

 

The earliest example of this, when demand plunged by the Corona virus, OPEC, Russia and other allies who have joined in a group known as OPEC + agreed to implement record production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to ten percent of global supply. These cuts continue until the end of July.

 

Nevertheless, it appears that the coming days will bring with it a new test of OPEC's solidity. Instead of dealing with unilateral shocks separately, OPEC will have to cope with a long-term retreat.

 

"This trend will put pressure on cooperation between OPEC members, as well as between OPEC and Russia, with each party seeking to maintain its market share," said Chakib Khalil, who held the position of Algerian Oil Minister for a decade and was OPEC president twice.

 

And some challenges may arise in the near term from within OPEC, as Iran and Venezuela, subject to US sanctions, seek to increase their production, or through the rise of conflict-stricken Libya.

 

Other challenges may come from abroad as the organization tries to prevent US shale oil from seizing market share while OPEC seeks to reduce production as part of its efforts to support prices.

 

"There are many challenges in the future and we have to adapt," one OPEC member said, adding that the organization's management of past crises has proven its ability to respond to changes.

 

Qabazard, a former OPEC research director, said the organization may have a little longer to adjust to before the demand reaches its peak. But he added that the date when OPEC must adapt is approaching.

 

"I don't think it (demand) will rise above 110 million barrels per day by the end of the 1940s," he said, adding that the repercussions of the pandemic Covid-19 changed consumer habits so that they would not go back to their previous times.

 

"This is a permanent collapse in demand," he said.

 

https://yesiraq.com/أوبك-تفكر-جديًا-بالسيناريو-المرعب-هل/

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.