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Adam Montana Weekly 8 July 2020

Adam Montana

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Oil broke the EMA 20 today.  I posted a few oil articles last night about the demand just isn’t there.  CV has got a big part of the demand on lockdown.  Airlines are laying people off just to survive.  No bueno.


The Stock Market is trying to roll over.  That is a good thing.  It’s due for a little correction.  The VIX, Volatility gauge is still below 30.  I’m watching the 10 year yield.  That is very bothersome to me.  (Now 31)


We have 2 economies in this Market.  One is stalled or going down, ( Oil, Airlines, Hotels, Restaurants, Cruisers, Retail, Banks) and the other side is the Stay at Home economy, ( Big Tech and related Companies)


It’s the strangest Market I’ve ever witnessed.  The big tech names like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSCI, and many more are both defensive and growth stories.  It’s kind of crazy but believe it or not the valuations are not totally out of whack. I believe I read that the average PE of the FAANG stocks is around 24.


If if you were smart enough (or dumb enough) to buy 50 shares of AMZN at the March lows you would be up about 70 K now. That’s just Crazy,  Should have, could have, why in the f..., didn’t we all do that!!!!  😆 😝 😝.   We were all scared.  Just what the big boys like.  


I try try to stay grounded, especially when it comes to money.  When things get messed up and “when there is fear and blood on the ground, that presents a great opportunity to buy”


”Keep your eyes wide open and always be looking for Opportunity”. 


“There is always a bull market somewhere”

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17 hours ago, Caye98 said:


I am THRILLED with all of the excitement, and nautical jargon...


BUT just as some people "cringe" at the word "GOT" ;) , I have a similar response when "sheets" are mistaken for "sails"...

SHEETS are 'lines' on a boat..., and there is only 1 ROPE on a boat, the anchor rope. The other "ropes" are 'lines'. Lines that control sails are "sheets" (unless they are halyards, to raise sails).


This nautical bit of information was brought to you by RUM (it's not just for breakfast anymore)

I should know better, and I stand corrected :lol: 

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1 hour ago, Adam Montana said:

In other news, speaking of things that make us cringe, Miriam Webster just confirmed (again) that “irregardless” is a word. 


It certainly is. It means without without regard. (So we stutter a bit).   lol

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17 hours ago, paperboy said:
  • Caye98 - after this DV hits (and arrives in port), can i come aboard your ship and you teach me a little something about sailing?   All of my boats have had "motors" attached to the stern, so sheets, lines, sails, lanyards -  all greek to me. 


It will be my pleasure


9 hours ago, RodandStaff said:

Post RV I’d be happy to have you teach this land lubber all those nautical terms over a Dark and Stormy! 😉


I'll see your 'Gossling's" [Blue Seal], and raise you a 'Painkiller'. 


2 hours ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

Damm Skippy, with the current state of affairs in the world today and people still ask  me 

Why do I drink :facepalm2:


Perhaps a better question "Why would you stop?' ...


5 O'clock somewhere may be something to look forward to... but the sun is over the Yardarm about 11AM!

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16 minutes ago, Caye98 said:

5 O'clock somewhere may be something to look forward to... but the sun is over the Yardarm about 11AM!


I Scouted the CC BB Summer League for the Braves for 4 summers.  I have some great friends in Falmouth.  That is a wonderful place in the summer.  I had a blast, watching BB and hanging out at the Irish pubs after the games.  

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Thank you Adam. I have been off work since the virus started. I was sent home by my managers because I am very high risk, Basically, if I get coved I would not be considered viable for a ventilator. So been self isolating. Have spent loads of money in the process. Bought things for my home and garden. I have spent a lot of time relaxing in my garden and I am now so used to it I do not want to return to work. Hoping the next update is to say we can go to the bank. 

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Oh wow @tjokie.   How much research did you put in to that?   LOL.   More Greek to me.  Kinda like @Caye98’s sheets and sails and lines and halyards etc.   I’m putting my ENGLISH dictionary away now. No more verbiage challenges for me.  All I want to hear is RV!!!!!   

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21 hours ago, paperboy said:

Oh wow @tjokie.   How much research did you put in to that?   LOL.   More Greek to me.  Kinda like @Caye98’s sheets and sails and lines and halyards etc.   I’m putting my ENGLISH dictionary away now. No more verbiage challenges for me.  All I want to hear is RV!!!!!   

Did my research the best way!  A week long vacation to Rhodes Island, Greece! 

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18 hours ago, keylime said:

Do they make that much trash on the island?

Well, they don't flush the toilet paper.  They put it in a special can next to the toilet and trash is hauled off of the island to a processing plant on the mainland.  I guess that could be a lot depending on how many tourists show up! :lol:

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Ok, Earnings Season is here and the Banks reported mixed reviews.  Some were up nicely like JP Morgan Chase and a few were down like Wells Fargo.  The thing that was troubling was their Guidance going forward.  The CV is definitely putting a hurt on the economy.  Look for more Government stimulus to help everyone get through this terrible pandemic and to keep the economy propped up.  


Today I’m seeing a rotation out of a number of the big Tech stocks that have run way up.  I’m seeing Industrials, Metals, Healthcare, and the Oil Sectors giving the markets a nice boost.  We all know this earning season will be extremely bad for many Sectors and companies while others like in the Tech Sectors are going to probably show some great gains.  It is definitely a bifurcated Market as the “ Stay at home Economy” does well and the Hospitality, and Oil Sectors are continuing to get hammered. (Oil is up .47% today 🙂).


The recent Momentum Trade looks to be coming to an end as everyone braces for earnings and more important, forward guidance.  We are navigating in a stormy sea in the markets these days.  Buckle up as we plow through these earnings reports.  I’m hoping we can keep most of the gains from the last 2-3 month recovery off those March lows.  Keep an eye on those moving averages I always talk about, especially the E20, E50, and E200.  We held the E20 to day in the S&P and that was a great sign.  The Fed and US Government are going to backstop the economy to help everyone get through this.  Stay positive and look for opportunities.  They are there for those that keep the right frame of mind.  


I’ll let you know if I see anything that gets too crazy to the downside.  

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We had a really nice close today.  I couldn’t be more happy about this close.  We really bounced up off that E20 today.  Great sign.


Moderna, ( MRNA) reported 100% of it’s patients treated with their drug got better.  

If we get a vaccine to go with our better Theraputics you will see a gigantic rally for a few days.  Do not be surprised if this type of news comes out quicker than many believe is possible.  Moderna is a very small health care bio tech but Regeneron, J&J, Pzfizer, Sanofi, and a host of many more are reporting good results in their early stage testing.  Tonight’s news by Moderna is very very great news.


BTW, their stock price surged over 12 bucks after hours.  Do not chase that please.  The big boys will dump it in the morning for a nice profit and buy it back later at a much cheaper price.  


Moderna shares jump as much as 16% after company says its coronavirus vaccine trial produced ‘robust’ immune response


Moderna’s shares soared after the company said its potential vaccine to prevent Covid-19 produced a “robust” immune response in all 45 patients in its early stage human trial, according to newly released data published Tuesday evening in the peer-reviewed New England Journal of Medicine.

Moderna’s stock rose more than 16% in after-hours trading on the news. 

All 45 patients produced neutralizing antibodies, which scientists believe is important for building immunity and provided more promising data that the vaccine may give some protection against the coronavirus. In the trial, each participant received a 25, 100 or 250 microgram dose, with 15 people in each dose group. Participants received two doses of the potential vaccine.

After two vaccinations, the vaccine elicited a “robust” immune response in all participants in all dose cohorts, Moderna said. The company said the levels of neutralizing antibodies in patients in the high dose group were fourfold higher than in recovered Covid-19 patients. 

“These Phase 1 data demonstrate that vaccination with mRNA-1273 elicits a robust immune response across all dose levels and clearly support the choice of 100 µg in a prime and boost regimen as the optimal dose for the Phase 3 study,” Moderna’s chief medical officer, Tal Zaks, said in a statement. “We look forward to beginning our Phase 3 study of mRNA-1273 this month to demonstrate our vaccine’s ability to significantly reduce the risk of COVID-19 disease.”

In May, the company had released preliminary information from its early stage trial, but it lacked all of its data and it hadn’t been peer-reviewed yet.

Moderna said the vaccine was generally well tolerated, but more than half of the participants reported mild or moderate symptoms such as fatigue, muscle aches or pain at the injection site.

Evaluation of the durability of immune responses is ongoing, Moderna said, and participants will be followed for one year after the second vaccination.

The effort by Moderna is one of several working on a potential vaccine for Covid-19, which has infected more than 13 million people and killed at least 573,200 across the globe as of Tuesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. More than 100 vaccines are under development globally, according to the World Health Organization.

Earlier Tuesday, Moderna announced it would begin its late-stage trial for its vaccine on July 27. The trial will enroll 30,000 participants across 87 locations, according to Participants in the experimental arm will receive a 100 microgram dose of the potential vaccine on the first day and another 29 days later. Some patients will also receive a placebo.

Moderna’s experimental vaccine contains genetic material called messenger RNA, or mRNA. The mRNA is a genetic code that tells cells what to build — in this case, an antigen that may induce an immune response to the virus. It became the first candidate to enter a phase 1 human trial in March.

Scientists are still learning about key aspects of the virus, including how immune systems respond once a person is exposed. The answers, they say, may have important implications for vaccine development, including how quickly it can be deployed to the public.

The U.S. is aiming to deliver 300 million doses of a vaccine for Covid-19 by early 2021. 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has often touted Moderna’s potential vaccine.

On Monday, he said he’s “cautiously optimistic” scientists will be able to create at least one safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year or early 2021.


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