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Adam Montana

Adam Montana Weekly 17 June 2020

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Friday, 6-26-20

 

This is just a quick report on what I’m seeing in the Markets.  I will give a more detailed post later this evening or over the weekend.

 

Today is is a good old fashioned SELL OFF.   it’s like everyone woke up today and said SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!  They are saying it’s because of concerns over the CV but in reality the Market is correcting from the overbought conditions of the last month.  People are taking their Profits.  ( which is smart).  Markets have a tendency to get over zealous to both the upside and the downside.  It got over it’s skis a little bit earlier in the month and now we are cleaning up that last run up.  

 

I am seeing some things that I don’t like from a pure Technical point of view and I will address those later in another report.  I’ve been shorting FB on the news that it is losing major advertisers because they won’t censor hate speech.  I won’t go into the politics on this thread but I am not surprised by these moves.  

 

Lets watch, wait, and see if we retrace on some good news later today or if we fade into the close and regroup next week.  I’m not seeing anything that is working to the upside today so far. All major Indices are Red as are all the Sectors in the Markets, including oil and metals (gold, silver).

 

If you are long don’t rush out and sell everything.  I don’t believe this is that kind of sell off.  I will have another report later today or tomorrow. I need to watch and see what happens the with the rest of today’s action.  Stay tuned.  

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   7BEAF894-824B-4188-B076-F302D55BFB3D.thumb.jpeg.9dddb4f19589773b616c8e21f22df45c.jpeg

 

I wrote a very detailed post on market conditions but I hit the wrong button and it got erased.  No problems, just 2 hours of work GONE!!!   So you get the quick version.

 

The Top Chart is the S&P 500.  Notice the white line running from the March low to the top red line.  That is a trim line or a trend line.   The S&P broke that line on June 11th, that was your first heads up of lower price movements. I was hopping we would trend sideways and go back up but the last 3 days are signaling otherwise.

 

Chart 2 is a blown up version of Chart 1.  Notice 3 days ago we broke the E20.  That was another warning signal.  Where to next?  We are currently sitting on the E50.  If we break that tomorrow that will be another major moving average violated and not good.  

 

After that we have major support at the E200 ( green Dotted line). I suspect that will get breached as well, maybe tomorrow.  There are 3 Fib lines I highlighted on that chart.  If we breach the E200 those are your next support lines at 2935 ish, then 2790-2800, ( that’s the 50% retrace line from the March low) and 2650 or the 32.2 Fib retrace line.  

 

I have no no idea where we are going to end up in the next few weeks to a month.  I’m not thinking this is going to be a major sell off like in March but I think we test that E200 for sure, and probably the 50 Fib at 2800.  All my indicators are showing we are headed lower.  How far will depend on the news and how people react to it.  We are in unprecedented times and a new earning season will start in the next 2 weeks.  Expect VOLATILITY, and watch those support lines.  They are very solid lines and are not easily breached.  If we break the 2800 mark you HAD BETTER PAY ATTENTION!!!

 

I do apologize for the short post.  I’m getting ready to head out of town for the next week or so.  It’s time for the old guy to rest.  I will have my laptop and will post if I see anything that looks too crazy.  

 

I do do not like holding gold stocks but the charts look promising.  I will probably Swing Trade them if we get above the 1800 mark. The two best ETF’s in my opinion are GLD and GDX.  I will probably Trade from one or two of the following. AEM, NEM, FNV, GOLD or KL.  

 

As always my posts are geared more for Traders.  If you are a Long term holder in stocks or 401k’s you probably don’t need to worry too much. Consult your Financial person and always do your own Due Diligence.

 

I hope you all have a safe and great time over the 4th of July Holiday.  

 

 

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 feel for you man... nothing more gut wrenching than fat fingers entering the equation at the wrong time.

 Its still a stellar read and commentary. Keep up the great analysis. 

Ps I'd love to see you do some charting on crypto some time.... just the majors... man does the news ever affect them too.

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7 minutes ago, FlyHi said:

just the majors... man does the news ever affect them too.

 

I’m so angry at myself for trying to do that report on my IPad.  Fat fingers indeed.  

 

I really dont know cryptos even though I own some.  To be honest I don’t feel comfortable talking about them.  Stocks, no problem, but cryptos just seem like a crap shoot without much transparency or regulation.   I bought mine as a hedging device so I don’t really pay it too much attention.  I’m sure there are charts on Twitter.  There are some very knowledgeable people on the subject on DV’s too.  

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Yes I've seen TA on the majors but being up to date on the news is the real winner especially for BTC. 

I hear where you are coming from but I am on a site that is pretty exciting as the platform trades gold, oil, FX, stocks, futures and crypto etc. You can be a "trader" and shortly (after implementation of a module currently in beta) others will be able to follow you automatically and you get commission on them backing you. So you could still trade how you like right now or indices.

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PS it is futile being angry with yourself. Live in the now and have a life of "no regrets"

That is perfectionism trying to control you... chill and realise you are doing a great job and are a super encouragement on this board 

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I’m watching the Market from my laptop in Galveston.   These big boys running the markets are such crooks.  They showed green all premarket and then pulled the rug on newbie traders.  Geez they couldn’t even wait the usual 15 mins to suck everyone in.  

 

Im watching for a test and possibly a bounce back up off that 200 ema. We have some big hitter stocks like Amzn, Shop, Adbe, and FB getting clobbered today.  

 

Not seeing much action in gold yet. We’ll have to wait and see what shakes out

 

 

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We didn’t make it to the 200 ema.  

 

Yesterday I said we were sitting on the 50 ema and if we breached it we would probably test the 200 ema.  Well, we breached that 50 ema but we bounced higher off it on news that Boeing was going to start testing their jets.  Boeing has a big influence on the DJ-30 with a percentage weighting of over 11.  When Boeing goes up like it did today, over 20 bucks  then the Dow goes up as does the Nasdaq and S&P

 

Even though the charts were indicating down ( and we were doing so early on) this market is very News Driven, and Boeing provided the good news today.  

Earnings Season starts in less than 2 weeks.  That will be a driving force for sure.  

 

Yes, I traded Boeing today from my laptop.  

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@pitcher

I'm clueless to trading and etc... but just last week GE Aviation in Cincinnati laid off 600+ people.  And since I work on jet engines for another company that they source out to...I'm wondering how it could go up?  Our shop is thinning out quickly with not many people flying.  our weekend shift was cut and such.

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Cutter, it makes no sense.  To me the entire market is messed up on Fed QE, the Government’s Stimulus deals and Corporate Buy Backs.  That’s why I have zero money Long Term and why I’m Day Trading  and Swing Trading.  With our Government 25T plus in debt how sustainable and how long can that behavior last.  I personally think they are trying to Bankrupt the Country.

 

Boeing going up 20 bucks today made no sense but I got on it and got some.  Bursts and fits, it’s a Traders market.  If you’re Long with your money in a 401k it’s all just noise.  

 

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15 hours ago, Pitcher said:

We didn’t make it to the 200 ema.  

 

Yesterday I said we were sitting on the 50 ema and if we breached it we would probably test the 200 ema.  Well, we breached that 50 ema but we bounced higher off it on news  

 

 

Not being a market person, but what is "ema" ? Is that market talk for ENEMA  ?

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An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average.

 

Sometimes when they get violated it feels like your getting an enema.  😂 😆 

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2 hours ago, Pitcher said:

An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average.

 

Sometimes when they get violated it feels like your getting an enema.  😂 😆 

 

 

AHA, I was right. It DOES have something to do with a movement..

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Yes Yendor but it works both ways.  Yesterday the Market held the 50 EMA and now it’s heading back up to the 20 EMA.  If we cross that then it’s steak and beer for everyone.  😂 😝 

 

Currently the Market dodged a bullet yesterday and I’m seeing a consolidation forming or a sideways trading pattern.  This is exactly what the Market needs.  It’s telling us, Ok, the CV news is bad but it’s not terrifying.  We will go sideways until we get more information of what we knew was probably going to happen with the CV and we will wait for earnings season to decide if we go higher or back down.  We are also waiting for the word on the Iraqi Dinar going international”. 😆 😆 😝 

 

I Day Traded NEM today and took a nice profit but left some shares  (house money) behind for a Swing.  In the coming days I will add or sell depending on what I’m seeing.  

 

Take a look at gold stocks. They had a good morning. 

 

I also took a quick hitter in NVDA.  

 

 

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:19 AM, Pitcher said:

 Yesterday the Market held the 50 EMA and now it’s heading back up to the 20 EMA.  If we cross that then it’s steak and beer for everyone.  😂 😝 

 

 

I wrote the above on Monday.  I also said this is a news driven market.  Even with all my Daily indicators leaning to a little correction back down to the 200 ema last Friday, you can see what happens when any good news hits. We had a lot of very good news this week.  We had good consumer spending numbers, good employment numbers, good news on the CV vaccine, many parts of the world and our country are re-opening, Oil is going up, a few good earnings numbers, and most important it’s the 4th of July in 2 days.  The 2 days before the 4th always are good for some reason.  

 

Just like last Friday my indicators were showing red, today they are showing green.  After the big sell off on June 11th I was hoping for a churn or sideways market.  I felt like the market cleaned up the froth of the last run up on no news on the 11th and has since been kind of Trading in a nice range.  If the CV can be controlled in the new hotspots and a vaccine can come to Market in the next 2-4 months you will see an exposion to the upside.  I think a lot of fund managers recognized this and have been filtering into long positions since mid April and late May.  I admit I missed buying for Longs on that bottom in April but I am very conservative when it comes to long term investments.   I did well Swing Trading and Day Trading so I don’t feel I missed much.  

 

The Up Movement this week in the S&P is bringing us very close to the top Resistance line from June 8th at 3233ish, the very top of the current trading range.  We are of this writing on Thurs July 2nd sitting at 3142 on the S&P.  We still have a little work to do to get to that high on June 8th.  If we can pop through that Resistance at 3233 then I can see us going to the 100 Fib line at the all time highs from Feb 20th around 3400.

Getting through those Resistance lines is tough but I’m just giving you possible short term targets.  I suspect we get close to that Resistance line of 3233 and back off. Unless we get another flood of GOOD NEWS.  Earnings Season starts in about a week so that will give the market the clarity it needs to go higher or correct on bad earnings and guidance.  We are walking on eggshells from the CV and trading this Market has been a beast.  Civil unrest and the coming Presidential election have only added to the uncertainty in our Markets. 

 

What I am hoping for is a vaccine and better Therapies to treat this horrible pandemic so we can get some clarity for future sustained growth in the economy.  I still think the Market is a little too positive when you consider some of the major Sectors of our Economy are basically closed and 40 million are unemployed or underemployed.  That will change quickly once we get this CV under control.  

 

I’m not supposed to be trading but I’m doing a few trades here and there.  For me vacation doesn’t mean you totally walk away from what you like doing for a living, you just slow down some.  Normally at this time of the year we like to get together as a family and share some good times.  We decided to cancel all family outings until we get a vaccine or the CV runs it’s course.  It stinks but we are doing what we think is the right thing for our family.  I own a small beach house in Galveston so my wife and I are enjoying some getaway time. Since mid Jan I’ve only taken 6 days off from my work, counting weekends. 

 

It is my wish for all of you that you can find something in the fall of your life that has meaning to you and something you enjoy doing.  If you can make a little money doing so then it’s a Blessing.  Hopefully you will do good with that money by helping others.  I planned, studied, paid my dues, and never gave up for the Blessings I am receiving with trading in my older age.  I work extremely hard at what I do but to me it’s not work.  

I have learned that to have a great life it is best to make yourself strong.  Strive to be strong in your Spiritual Life, Family, Health, Finances, and Community.  If you are strong in those areas you can help others,  To me that is the Key to life.  Be grateful, and give to others who need a little help.  

 

With the 4th of July coming in 2 days I am grateful for our Freedoms, and humbled by those who served and sacrificed to keep and maintain them.  We have all read and watched on TV the horrific image of bad policing, the looting and burning of businesses, and the peaceful marches for justice and inequity.  It is my prayer that our leaders in Washington do not shrug off the pain and suffering of those who feel the American experice is not fair, equal, and just to them.  If America is to survive another 250 years all Americans will need to adjust their attitudes towards one another.  The answer is not hate and violence, the answer is love and understanding.  

 

I wish for all on this site a Happy, Safe, and Relaxing time this weekend. I appreciate every one on this site for their numerous news articles and comments.  I have learned very much from you guys.  Many thanks to Adam and his staff for keeping this site very very special.  

 

Even though the Country is going through a very difficult time it is still a great Nation and one I have confidence will do the correct things to keep it a land of opportunity and a land that has great Freedoms.  

 

I’ll see you folks in a few weeks.  Maybe by then we will have some good Dinar news. 

 

Cheers,

Pitcher

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I tend to get a little wordy when I write.  Below is from a post I wrote early that I’m hoping some of you get a chance to read

 

.  

I have learned that to have a great life it is best to make yourself strong.  Strive to be strong in your Spiritual Life, Family, Health, Finances, and Community.  If you are strong in those areas you can help others,  To me that is the Key to life.  Be grateful, and give to others who need a little help.  

 

With the 4th of July coming in 2 days I am grateful for our Freedoms, and humbled by those who served and sacrificed to keep and maintain them.  We have all read and watched on TV the horrific image of bad policing, the looting and burning of businesses, and the peaceful marches for justice and inequity.  It is my prayer that our leaders in Washington do not shrug off the pain and suffering of those who feel the American experice is not fair, equal, and just to them.  If America is to survive another 250 years all Americans will need to adjust their attitudes towards one another.  The answer is not hate and violence, the answer is love and understanding.  

 

I wish for all on this site a Happy, Safe, and Relaxing time this weekend. I appreciate every one on this site for their numerous news articles and comments.  I have learned very much from you guys.  Many thanks to Adam and his staff for keeping this site very very special.  

 

Even though the Country is going through a very difficult time it is still a great Nation and one I have confidence will do the correct things to keep it a land of opportunity and a land that has great Freedoms.  

 

I’ll see you folks in a few weeks.  Maybe by then we will have some good Dinar news. 

 

Cheers,

Pitcher

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      The fact that Oil is returning to normal and sustainable price levels... well, that's just gravy.
       

       
      I'm not the only person who looks at that chart and feels hungry! 
       
      One other component I think we need to keep on the radar is still the HCL. While we are seeing a lot of positive news on many other fronts, the HCL seems... suspiciously quiet.
       
      Over the last few weeks, I've been noticing a trend. The news pieces that I am privileged to share and break down for you all have not been the "simple and sometimes boring" topics that have plagued us for months at a time in the recent past.
       
      On the contrary, I've been finding that much of the news and the key parts of this complicated web of information are challenging to piece together. It's led to a few "doozies" lately... the recent post on the Iraqi Budget is a good example. That one took a lot of editing and deleting and starting over to break it down into a manageable post that wouldn't make people's eyes glaze over.
       
      Based on the responses from the community, I feel it was worth the time.
       
      As the year 2020 is progressing, I am seeing more and more information that is stitching together in very complex ways. It makes my "job" a bit harder, but also more satisfying... and it will be even more satisfying when all of these things meet up at the end.
       
      The HCL (Hydro Carbon Law) is extremely important. It covers a few things, perhaps most importantly is the money-sharing arrangement that it provides. I may do a longer explanation on this soon, but for this post I'll just state that Oil, the Transportation of Oil, the price of Oil, the intrinsic connection between Oil and Iraq's economy... this is a short list of why the HCL is important.
       
      The Middle East as a whole is a major producer of oil. Anything that is produced, and sold, needs to be transported to the consumer. While Iraq only has a small piece of the land that accesses the Gulf of Persia, they do have a sizable and important piece of the land that connects many paths that Oil must cross, and the HCL is vital to forward progress.
       
      Hang on to your seat as you read through this next bit:
       
      The recent Iran-Turkey pipeline incident, courtesy of the PKK (Kurds), is certainly going to have an affect... particularly since Turkey seems to not want anything to do with fixing it. This incident hurts Iran more than anyone, benefits Iraq, and Turkey comes out better as well - both politically, financially, and in terms of future positioning.
       
      That also comes back full circle to the HCL - eliminating Iran from the equation is a benefit to Iraq, and the HCL will be used to ensure that the Kurds get a larger portion of these benefits.
       
      Once again, when you look at the big picture it starts to make sense "why" the RV didn't happen yet. The dominoes have been being placed, one at a time, and the HCL just might be the force that starts them moving.
       
      I encourage everyone to read the links I posted in the above text. Piece that all together in your head, and get in VIP, because things are about to start happening REALLY FAST.
       
      GO HCL.
       
      GO RV.
       
      Best regards, all! Have a fantastic day and stay safe.
       
       
       
      - Adam
       
      P.S. If you hadn't noticed, I've been linking the relevant articles a lot lately instead of quoting them. This might be a little more work on your part to completely understand my posts, but I've received a lot of positive feedback from members as well. Feel free to chime in and let me know which you prefer! 
       

       
      P.P.S. Our Powerball Pool is here. Get in!
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