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By Adam Montana
Good morning and HAPPY WEDNESDAY!
These Weekly updates are getting more and more fun for me, because Iraq is moving faster and faster.
The proof is coming daily, hourly... we are looking at an HCL move soon, and that's about all we need right now!
The comments on my Weekly update last week reached 6 pages pretty quickly... here's one of the highlights:
That doesn't say "HCL tomorrow, RV by Friday"... but it's pretty darn close!
The new PM Kazzamie is operating efficiently and effectively. We are going to hear some detractions and criticisms, but he is doing a great job in my opinion.
Oil is slightly down this morning, but the overall trend is stable and upwards, currently at $39.24. The IMF is predicting a continuation - I agree.
As we move closer to a successful resolution and completion with HCL, we are going to start hearing a LOT from the "gurus". Some of them will be right, some will always be "full of it", but the closer we get... the louder it's going to seem.
Stay calm, don't let emotions get the best of you, and hang tight... we are closing in.
That's all I'm posting for this morning.
Go Iraq, go HCL,
By Adam Montana
Good morning, good morning!
This may end up being a "less is more" kind of post.
I made mention last week that we are in a great spot, and I was hoping to see some movement on the HCL.
@DinarThug, true to form, followed up with this. And this. ("The oil and gas law will be included in the upcoming sessions.") And this. And this! And this. And THIS!!! And... seriously, it just kept going.
There are times when I find it perfectly acceptable to be calm, sit back, and not get too excited.
This is not that time.
We are looking at constant HCL news, constant mention of monetary change, constant clues that we are on the brink of a monumental event.
=== // This next part will be deleted tomorrow: // =====
=== // The above will be removed tomorrow. You snooze... you lose! // ====
Don't get me wrong... I'm pretty stoked about the stability of bitcoin (and the potential of quite a few other cryptos!), the markets are encouraging (hat tip to @Pitcher for the great analysis every week!), and a mess of other stuff!
There is just so much going on right now that smells like "HCL", like this and this and this and... it's almost overwhelming.
You can bet the gurus are going to be going nuts here pretty soon.
As a VIP member, you can ignore all of the hype and the nonsense you read or hear, and relax while you watch for my text and email with the official RV announcement.
Hang on to your hats, friends... stay grounded, get in VIP, and enjoy the ride.
Go Kazzammie. Go HCL.
P.S. Don't forget about the Weekly Powerball Pool!
By Adam Montana
Good morning and Happy Wednesday!
I don't see a need to make this update overly complicated, so... I won't!
OIL: We saw negative prices recently, but it has shot back up to almost $40. This shouldn't come as a surprise - OIL is a necessary commodity, the world isn't going to stop using or needing it anytime soon, and Iraq has a lot. Conclusion: Good for Iraq.
Also OIL: The recent OPEC+ agreement to cut production is partly responsible for the rise in price, but this article confirms what I've been saying for years - Iraq isn't really obligated, or inclined, to play by the "rules". The rules don't really apply to them, so why would they?
Don't worry - that's a positive thing for us in the speculation game. We want Iraq to use every tool they have, and they are.
GOI (Government of Iraq): Our new guy in office Kazzamie continues to plow through obstacles, protests against the former PMs are fading in the rear view mirror quickly, and the list of accomplishments is getting more impressive by the day. (This thread is at 6 pages and counting, and only started Monday! Solid work, @Mary B)
More GOI: @DinarThug gave some attention to GOI matters, specifically the Budget and government salaries here. My opinion on the Budget is pretty simple: It doesn't have to be announced prior to an RV, the future rate of the Iraqi Dinar doesn't need to be published in it. However, the articles posted in that thread all have a similar "feel" - Kazzamie is weeding through the mess, doing positive things, moving the ship forward.
Even more GOI: @yota691 brought us this article regarding Kazemi, and followed it with a couple of articles regarding a focus on preventing double taxation, referencing Kuwait... If you read the recent explanation of the Iraqi Budget and the Currency Auctions in Iraq, you know that Kuwait and Iraq have a unique situation... some of the details are murky, and hard to put in context, but it stands to reason that Iraq would create loopholes for themselves prior to announcing a significant change in the value of the currency.
Kuwait will likely be first in line with their hands out, due to the legal agreement for reparations and the significant amount that is owed to Kuwait by Iraq.
This stuff isn't rocket science!
(I've linked to this Auctions and Budget post multiple times recently... that's a hint that it's important. )
Also noteworthy is an article DT posted in last week's Weekly update. If this kind of stuff doesn't put a smile on your face, nothing will!
That's all I'm going to review for this morning - the summary here, if you hadn't figured it out yet (I'm sure you did!), is: POSITIVE with a side of GIDDY-UP.
P.S. Get in our Powerball Pool! You can't win if you don't play, and your odds are better in a group.
By Adam Montana
Good morning good morning!
Happy Wednesday DinarVets, and welcome to another edition of "The Weekly".
Hopefully it's one of the few remaining.
2020... what a year so far! I'm not going to comment on the current events because they don't really make a difference on the Iraqi Dinar, and it's a rant that I just don't feel like getting into this morning.
I am curious to see what kind of "spike" we will see in corona cases, though, since there are suddenly gobs of people doing the exact opposite of "social distancing"... my guess is that there won't be any massive spike. Time will tell.
Anyway! We made it through a couple months of invisible plague. Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr has passed.
After a series of unsuccessful attempts at appointing a Prime Minister, Kazemi (RV Kazammy!!!) is approaching only two short months in office, but he's seriously kicking butt!
We don't have an HCL agreement (yet), so we don't have an RV.
But we are getting close.
Kazammi is possibly the first political figure in a position to have a real chance at getting the HCL to pass.
One of the reasons is stated on Wikipedia fairly well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Al-Kadhimi#:~:text=Al-Kadhimi was a vocal,of the Iraqi political parties.
The HCL is a VERY polarized topic. In order for it to come together, a couple of opposing parties have to agree on it... and a neutral party as mediator is the best way to go.
That's our guy Kazzami!
These topics will get you up to speed on "the rest of the story" quickly:
1. Kazemi-Kazammi is not a Kurd, he's not "one of them", but the Kurds are supporting him. This has monumental potential:
2. Iran has lost their power. The "Iran factor" that has held Iraq back in the past is just that... the past.
3. Kazzami has reportedly made his picks, and Parliament should rubber stamp them next week. This is progress.
They may not vote every one of them in, but 80% will be enough to move forward.
4. If you want the play-by-play, our fearless and tireless @yota691 has you covered.
(tl;dr version: Parliament is working.)
And on that note, my friends, I am wrapping up this Weekly.
Life is good, things in the desert look positive, and GOOO RRRVVVV!!!!!
By Adam Montana
Good morning, and Happy Wednesday!
Warning: This Weekly Update is coming in like a lamb and going out like a lion.
Before we get into it, I want to thank you all for being the best dang group of people I've ever been associated with. Please know that I never take you for granted, and time after time you impress me with your heart and character - as evidenced time and again, in particular by the incredible outpouring of love, respect, and goodness in last week's update.
Cheers to you all, God bless, and thank you.
Lots of talk lately about the new PM (KaZAMi-Kablammie-Kademi-KaJustRValready!), exchange rate talk, the US pulling out of Iraqi bases, and of course - "more".
There was a time when there wasn't much "more", but lately things are picking up steam - Parliament blazing through tasks, the newly appointed PM seems to almost have entered the scene un-noticed. What I mean by that is the last couple PMs were met with fierce opposition, riots, and outcry. I don't think for a minute that the Iraqi people are done fighting or they have lost their spirit - the fact that Kazammie is still in office, with no reports of (major) riots or protests, is an indicator that he could be "the one".
A key part of the "more" is the Iraqi Budget, which is looming on the horizon. The Budget is a big deal, but do NOT expect to see an RV rate in it - in fact, I place very little importance on the Budget numbers. What IS important and relevant is a successful conclusion and announcement of the Budget. That can only happen when the bobbleheads in Parliament actually meet, pull out their pens, and sign the agreement. When that happens, it shows that Iraq is doing something positive, moving forward, and clearing the table for bigger items.
The fact that Oil is returning to normal and sustainable price levels... well, that's just gravy.
I'm not the only person who looks at that chart and feels hungry!
One other component I think we need to keep on the radar is still the HCL. While we are seeing a lot of positive news on many other fronts, the HCL seems... suspiciously quiet.
Over the last few weeks, I've been noticing a trend. The news pieces that I am privileged to share and break down for you all have not been the "simple and sometimes boring" topics that have plagued us for months at a time in the recent past.
On the contrary, I've been finding that much of the news and the key parts of this complicated web of information are challenging to piece together. It's led to a few "doozies" lately... the recent post on the Iraqi Budget is a good example. That one took a lot of editing and deleting and starting over to break it down into a manageable post that wouldn't make people's eyes glaze over.
Based on the responses from the community, I feel it was worth the time.
As the year 2020 is progressing, I am seeing more and more information that is stitching together in very complex ways. It makes my "job" a bit harder, but also more satisfying... and it will be even more satisfying when all of these things meet up at the end.
The HCL (Hydro Carbon Law) is extremely important. It covers a few things, perhaps most importantly is the money-sharing arrangement that it provides. I may do a longer explanation on this soon, but for this post I'll just state that Oil, the Transportation of Oil, the price of Oil, the intrinsic connection between Oil and Iraq's economy... this is a short list of why the HCL is important.
The Middle East as a whole is a major producer of oil. Anything that is produced, and sold, needs to be transported to the consumer. While Iraq only has a small piece of the land that accesses the Gulf of Persia, they do have a sizable and important piece of the land that connects many paths that Oil must cross, and the HCL is vital to forward progress.
Hang on to your seat as you read through this next bit:
The recent Iran-Turkey pipeline incident, courtesy of the PKK (Kurds), is certainly going to have an affect... particularly since Turkey seems to not want anything to do with fixing it. This incident hurts Iran more than anyone, benefits Iraq, and Turkey comes out better as well - both politically, financially, and in terms of future positioning.
That also comes back full circle to the HCL - eliminating Iran from the equation is a benefit to Iraq, and the HCL will be used to ensure that the Kurds get a larger portion of these benefits.
Once again, when you look at the big picture it starts to make sense "why" the RV didn't happen yet. The dominoes have been being placed, one at a time, and the HCL just might be the force that starts them moving.
I encourage everyone to read the links I posted in the above text. Piece that all together in your head, and get in VIP, because things are about to start happening REALLY FAST.
Best regards, all! Have a fantastic day and stay safe.
P.S. If you hadn't noticed, I've been linking the relevant articles a lot lately instead of quoting them. This might be a little more work on your part to completely understand my posts, but I've received a lot of positive feedback from members as well. Feel free to chime in and let me know which you prefer!
P.P.S. Our Powerball Pool is here. Get in!