Popular Post Adam Montana Posted May 27, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Good morning, and Happy Wednesday! Warning: This Weekly Update is coming in like a lamb and going out like a lion. Before we get into it, I want to thank you all for being the best dang group of people I've ever been associated with. Please know that I never take you for granted, and time after time you impress me with your heart and character - as evidenced time and again, in particular by the incredible outpouring of love, respect, and goodness in last week's update. Cheers to you all, God bless, and thank you. Lots of talk lately about the new PM (KaZAMi-Kablammie-Kademi-KaJustRValready!), exchange rate talk, the US pulling out of Iraqi bases, and of course - "more". There was a time when there wasn't much "more", but lately things are picking up steam - Parliament blazing through tasks, the newly appointed PM seems to almost have entered the scene un-noticed. What I mean by that is the last couple PMs were met with fierce opposition, riots, and outcry. I don't think for a minute that the Iraqi people are done fighting or they have lost their spirit - the fact that Kazammie is still in office, with no reports of (major) riots or protests, is an indicator that he could be "the one". A key part of the "more" is the Iraqi Budget, which is looming on the horizon. The Budget is a big deal, but do NOT expect to see an RV rate in it - in fact, I place very little importance on the Budget numbers. What IS important and relevant is a successful conclusion and announcement of the Budget. That can only happen when the bobbleheads in Parliament actually meet, pull out their pens, and sign the agreement. When that happens, it shows that Iraq is doing something positive, moving forward, and clearing the table for bigger items. The fact that Oil is returning to normal and sustainable price levels... well, that's just gravy. I'm not the only person who looks at that chart and feels hungry! One other component I think we need to keep on the radar is still the HCL. While we are seeing a lot of positive news on many other fronts, the HCL seems... suspiciously quiet. Over the last few weeks, I've been noticing a trend. The news pieces that I am privileged to share and break down for you all have not been the "simple and sometimes boring" topics that have plagued us for months at a time in the recent past. On the contrary, I've been finding that much of the news and the key parts of this complicated web of information are challenging to piece together. It's led to a few "doozies" lately... the recent post on the Iraqi Budget is a good example. That one took a lot of editing and deleting and starting over to break it down into a manageable post that wouldn't make people's eyes glaze over. Based on the responses from the community, I feel it was worth the time. As the year 2020 is progressing, I am seeing more and more information that is stitching together in very complex ways. It makes my "job" a bit harder, but also more satisfying... and it will be even more satisfying when all of these things meet up at the end. The HCL (Hydro Carbon Law) is extremely important. It covers a few things, perhaps most importantly is the money-sharing arrangement that it provides. I may do a longer explanation on this soon, but for this post I'll just state that Oil, the Transportation of Oil, the price of Oil, the intrinsic connection between Oil and Iraq's economy... this is a short list of why the HCL is important. The Middle East as a whole is a major producer of oil. Anything that is produced, and sold, needs to be transported to the consumer. While Iraq only has a small piece of the land that accesses the Gulf of Persia, they do have a sizable and important piece of the land that connects many paths that Oil must cross, and the HCL is vital to forward progress. Hang on to your seat as you read through this next bit: The recent Iran-Turkey pipeline incident, courtesy of the PKK (Kurds), is certainly going to have an affect... particularly since Turkey seems to not want anything to do with fixing it. This incident hurts Iran more than anyone, benefits Iraq, and Turkey comes out better as well - both politically, financially, and in terms of future positioning. That also comes back full circle to the HCL - eliminating Iran from the equation is a benefit to Iraq, and the HCL will be used to ensure that the Kurds get a larger portion of these benefits. Once again, when you look at the big picture it starts to make sense "why" the RV didn't happen yet. The dominoes have been being placed, one at a time, and the HCL just might be the force that starts them moving. I encourage everyone to read the links I posted in the above text. Piece that all together in your head, and get in VIP, because things are about to start happening REALLY FAST. GO HCL. GO RV. Best regards, all! Have a fantastic day and stay safe. - Adam P.S. If you hadn't noticed, I've been linking the relevant articles a lot lately instead of quoting them. This might be a little more work on your part to completely understand my posts, but I've received a lot of positive feedback from members as well. Feel free to chime in and let me know which you prefer! P.P.S. Our Powerball Pool is here. Get in! 12 18 2 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyguy2323 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
64jaguar Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 ahhh number one today, Thanks Adam 2 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivesman Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 A MOST EXCELLENT POST! THANK YOU! 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ly410 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Adam Montana said: because things are about to start happening REALLY FAST. go RV Edited May 27, 2020 by 6ly410 2 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddl Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Sounds very positive! Thank you Adam! 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ly410 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) KRG DELEGATION TO VISIT BAGHDAD THIS WEEK: KRG OFFICIAL Flags of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (File) 49 minutes ago http://nrttv.com/En/News.aspx?id=21534&MapID=1#.Xs5x0sJJOqA.twitter SULAIMANI — The General Director of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Foreign Relations Department in Baghdad said on Wednesday (May 27) that a KRG negotiating delegation will soon visit the Iraqi capital for discussions about ongoing disputes over the budget, oil revenues, and other long-standing issues. “Both the [KRG] and [the federal] government have expressed their desire to solve the problems between them,” General Director Bakhtiar Haji told the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s (KDP) official media outlet. Haji is also a member of the negotiating delegation. “Not only will the budget and salaries be discussed, but the total problems between the Region and Baghdad will be discussed as well, in order to solve them and reach an agreement,” he said. Both the federal government and the KRG are facing large budget shortfalls due to the collapse of oil prices in recent months, but a decision by Baghdad to cut off all budget transfers to Erbil in April exacerbated problems in Erbil and forced it to the negation table. Although the two sides met several times before the Eid al-Fitr holiday, they were unable to reach the comprehensive and binding agreement sought by the federal government. However, both Erbil and Baghdad have sent conciliatory signals indicating their willingness to make a deal. “The [federal] government has showed readiness to send the 400 billion Iraq dinars ($335 million) to the Kurdistan Region after Eid,” Haji said, referencing a move by Baghdad to release some funding to Erbil if it agreed to certain parameters for the talks. (NRT Digital Media) Edited May 27, 2020 by 6ly410 2 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
64jaguar Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 "Before we get into it, I want to thank you all for being the best dang group of people I've ever been associated with. Please know that I never take you for granted, and time after time you impress me with your heart and character - as evidenced time and again, in particular by the incredible outpouring of love, respect, and goodness in last week's update. Cheers to you all, God bless, and thank you." The pleasure is All ours Adam, you Rock bro! ... and Julie too! 8 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Adam Montana Posted May 27, 2020 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, 6ly410 said: KRG DELEGATION TO VISIT BAGHDAD THIS WEEK: KRG OFFICIAL Flags of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (File) 49 minutes ago http://nrttv.com/En/News.aspx?id=21534&MapID=1#.Xs5x0sJJOqA.twitter SULAIMANI — The General Director of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Foreign Relations Department in Baghdad said on Wednesday (May 27) that a KRG negotiating delegation will soon visit the Iraqi capital for discussions about ongoing disputes over the budget, oil revenues, and other long-standing issues. “Both the [KRG] and [the federal] government have expressed their desire to solve the problems between them,” General Director Bakhtiar Haji told the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s (KDP) official media outlet. Haji is also a member of the negotiating delegation. “Not only will the budget and salaries be discussed, but the total problems between the Region and Baghdad will be discussed as well, in order to solve them and reach an agreement,” he said. Both the federal government and the KRG are facing large budget shortfalls due to the collapse of oil prices in recent months, but a decision by Baghdad to cut off all budget transfers to Erbil in April exacerbated problems in Erbil and forced it to the negation table. Although the two sides met several times before the Eid al-Fitr holiday, they were unable to reach the comprehensive and binding agreement sought by the federal government. However, both Erbil and Baghdad have sent conciliatory signals indicating their willingness to make a deal. “The [federal] government has showed readiness to send the 400 billion Iraq dinars ($335 million) to the Kurdistan Region after Eid,” Haji said, referencing a move by Baghdad to release some funding to Erbil if it agreed to certain parameters for the talks. (NRT Digital Media) yeahhhh baby!!! its coming :) 12 3 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ly410 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 let’s goooo 1 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sage449 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) Sounds like possible olive branch between KRG and Baghdad. Mega plus! Thx for bringing all of this to light; Adam and team you are very much appreciated. 🥰😍 Edited May 27, 2020 by Sage449 Spelling 2 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shabibilicious Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 GO RV, then BV 2 1 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boosterbglee Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam.....way to keep me optimistic! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siberian_shaddow Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Much Appreciated A.M. as always, it seems Irag may finally see some light at the end of the tunnel, Iran has been a dark cloud over them for a very long time. 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Adam Montana said: but lately things are picking up steam 1 hour ago, Adam Montana said: clearing the table for bigger items. 1 hour ago, Adam Montana said: things are about to start happening REALLY FAST. Thank you for a super duper great post Adam. I like the links a lot and, I like it when things go “Really Fast”, especially when my dog eats his corn. 😆 😂 And I like fast cars 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKD Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam. Posts keep getting more exciting and up-beat! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hete316 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thank You Adam!! We're soooooooooo ready! Things are coming together finally. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiljor Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam, much appreciated, "The perfect storm" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregp Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam. Soon...👍🏻👍🏻 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psdon Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 THANK you Adam the DV'S is a family that God put to gather through you 😇 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj1 Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam for the insightful analysis! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregp Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 You were right Adam!! I missed this!!! Friday at 12:34 PM LINK His predecessor wasted $ 15 billion ... Al-Kazimi's government is passing its first difficult test 22nd May, 2020 The government of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, accepts the first tactical test by announcing that three million employees are paid the salaries for the current month, with about 300 million dollars being urgently disbursed to four million poor, unemployed, and disabled people, with the aim of overcoming the scarcity of liquidity resulting from the semi-general closure due to Conditions facing the Corona outbreak The government announced that it would pay the end of this month's salaries and allowances, without deduction, which caused general public satisfaction And there were reports that the Al-Kazemi government would not be able to secure the salaries of the employees, after the previous government headed by Adel Abdul-Mahdi deliberately emptied the public treasury Sources linked to the government financial sector say that the Abdul-Mahdi government wasted nearly $ 15 billion in its last four months, under the pretext of meeting the demands of the demonstrators who went out against it last October and caused it to resign The Abdul-Mahdi government appointed nearly half a million Iraqis to mainly state departments that suffer from the problem of slack Sources revealed that Abdul-Mahdi's ministers distributed the new job ranks among the major parties, according to loyalty The Minister of Electricity Louay al-Khatib employed nearly ninety thousand people in institutions affiliated with his ministry, accused of chronic failure in the performance of its tasks Sources in the Ministry of Finance said that half of these new recruits have not received their salaries yet, due to the lack of sufficient liquidity, despite the passage of about two months after the issuance of their appointment orders When Al-Khatib was asked about how to secure the salaries of these people, during the last days of his term, he presented a television answer described as "slapping", as he said that "the task now rests with Parliament, as it is concerned with legislating the budget and providing the necessary funds for workers in state departments Khaled al-Najim, Minister of Planning in the Al-Kazemi government, said that the new employees added by the Abdul-Mahdi government may not receive financial dues by next month, especially if Parliament takes into account that they were added to the owners of the state without consulting with him And the star acknowledged that the salaries of employees in the next month, may not fully secure, which will push the government to work in the savings system, indicating that the government will start deducting from the rule not to prejudice the salaries of employees, which revolve in an atmosphere of 400 dollars per month The sources say that the Iraqi parliament supports the government's measures to save part of the salaries of the highest-ranking employees in the country and distribute a direct financial grant to the unemployed and the poor, provided that the salaries saved will be returned to their owners with sufficient liquidity Iraq relies on selling crude oil to finance nearly 98 percent of its annual budget. Iraq has lost about two-thirds of its financial returns during the past few months due to the drop in oil prices to unprecedented levels Despite the bleak outlook, the Al-Kazemi government appears to have many tools to overcome the financial crisis, both internally and externally Finance Minister Ali Allawi pledged that the government would not give up those with limited income, hinting that there are many options available to the state that can boost public budget imports Allawi went to Saudi Arabia as an envoy of the Prime Minister to discuss bilateral relations and economic conditions in the region and encourage investment Informed sources say that Al-Kazemi will turn to harsh measures within the administrative structure of the state, saving millions of dollars annually; For example, the Ministry of Oil controls the proceeds from the sale of about 750,000 barrels per day, intended for internal consumption The large returns from this huge amount are converted daily into bonuses and benefits paid to employees who perform only classic office work The new government also intends, according to the sources, to change the administration overseeing the border crossings, which control the entry of goods at the commercial level Most of Iraq's border outlets are now controlled by parties and militias that monopolize their returns, and prevent them from being directed to the public treasury, in tortuous ways On the external level, the sources say that Al-Kazemi received pledges to provide soft loans without interest, inexchange for investment projects granted to foreign companies Observers say that the deep state established by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and whose influence has increased during the era of the Adel Abdul Mahdi government, will constitute a major impediment to Al-Kazemi’s plans, which may push the Prime Minister towards harsh confrontations, toppling some senior officials In the event that Al-Kazemi’s plans are realized, his government will have bypassed, in the interim, the most important internal financial challenges, enabling him to devote sensitive files, including controlling the escaped militia weapon, organizing the relationship between Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, and reactivating Iraq’s external relations with a number of countries And about two weeks after its formation, the Al-Kazemi government began to create an optimistic atmosphere about the economy and plans to deal with the repercussions of the Coruna epidemic and the file of foreign relations But the patience of the Iraqis for the new government will not be long, especially if the electricity file enters the equation of the angry street, during the summer The lack of electricity supplied to the population, during the flaming summer of Iraq, is one of the largest protest engines in the country in previous years, and may be an influential player this summer, due to the initial discouraging indications of energy supply rates Edited Friday at 12:36 PM by DinarThug 2 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nannab Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Thanks Adam The perfect chat with a lot of good people. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Bean Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 4 hours ago, Adam Montana said: free to chime in You hit the nail on the head A.M. HCL is the elephant in the room. Once Kazammi kicks GOI into gear, there should be lots of noise on this !! The Kurds are all kissy kissy, so lets get that b!tch signed. Then Mission: Accomplished !! 3 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted May 27, 2020 Report Share Posted May 27, 2020 Assume news Adam. Thanks to you and your staff. 👍 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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