The Rush to Conspiracy

[EverCurious452]

Upstairs there is yet another thread proclaiming outrage of the media conspiracy this time in exaggerating the death figures from COVID-19.

"BREAKING: New CDC Coronavirus Data Cuts American Death Toll Nearly In HALF".  It's all a plot to take down the economy.   It's the media trying to control through fear.  It's all a plot to sabotage the President. Or ....

 

If you just go to the CDC page linked in the article that is being cut and pasted and look you see in the footnotes

Quote

 

Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

¹Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1.

 

and in the far at the bottom of the page

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Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed.

 

 

If we go to a site like https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america that is showing 67,000 or so deaths at this time (i.e. clearly part of the claimed conspiracy) and slide the date back until it shows 37,000 deaths, the date is April 17th or April 18th.  i.e. two weeks ago.  So it's not a conspiracy it's just data lag at the CDC compared to other sources exactly as the CDC's own site says.

 

Shouldn't that have been the obvious conclusion if anyone actually went to look at the page in question?  If you are so quick to pass on "Conspiracy!!!!"  are you not the one is likely to be part of the propaganda machine?

 

[rockfl9]

Hi EV,   Dinarians do have a problem using numbers.  Worse with facts behind the numbers.  

This whole RV thing is the original conspiracy ....  

The more unknowns  there are in a situation the easier to promote a conspiracy.

But using Occam's Razor you can boil the RV to just one question that is " to support a one cent RV a multitude of people would have to surrender $10,000  to buy a MIL IQD!!!!  I don't see a single one.

THEE Conspiracy theory here is that they will simply go to a bank and the bank will be the buyer for some unknown reason.

If there are not private buyers the bank is not interested.

[EverCurious452]

I see there is a thread upstairs entitled "Dr. Fauci knew about HCQ in 2005 -- nobody needed to die".

Gee sounds serious, but does anyone actually read the stuff they cut and paste?  If you had looked at the 2005 NIH paper ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/ ) on using chloroquine on SARS (or SARS-CoV) you would see even on the first page (emphasis mine)

 

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Conclusion

Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. 

 

 

It was a bench study on primate cells (which is of course where you start). It was not any sort of clinical trial even on animals but a test on cells in a petri dish and not even human cells (yes humans are primates but if human cells are used they usually say so).  So this is a good first step, but only a very first step and since it was in 2005 and there was and is huge world wide interest in SARS every epidemiologist on the planet would have read this years ago.  So its not only Dr Fauci that knew this and this is NOT an indication that these results would materialize in actual human use.

 

The other claims also sound impressive (Dr ... treated 500 people with Chloroquine and none needed hospitalization and none died (which is of course redundant but sounds good).  Does this tell us anything?  No.  Without a control group this is meaningless.  How sick were these people, apparently not sick enough to require immediate hospitalization.   The majority maybe the vast majority of people who contract COViD-19 have mild symptoms (especially if younger) so without knowing the demographics and having a control this random claim tells us nothing (is it even true?  where did it come from).  The human body is an incredibly complex system and the only way to understand how things work and what impacts various treatments have is good statistics.  Just going by the seat of you pants is doomed to failure.  Its annoying, but true.

 

People want there to be a magic bullet, who wouldn't?   (people also seem to want there to be some sinister conspiracy, which I do not understand).  But so far there does not appear to be one including Chloroquine.  The data so far (that I've seen) is contradictory.  On the one hand it can result in a 30% reduction in the length of time people are hospitalized (which might seem small but would in fact be very good if true), on the other it has no impact on mortality.  So is it worth study, likely even use as long as the side effects are monitored?  Sure.  But these wild accusations "no one had to die" are just nonsense.

 

[SocalDinar]

A good friend of mine's father died of pancreatic cancer a few weeks ago. Guess what the death certificate said. Covid of course.

I also know the director of a large hospital here in SOCAL.  Said they are not and have never been overwhelmed with Covid patients.

My neighbor is a doctor thats works at the VA hospital in Westwood. Says they are pressured to list cause of death as Covid.

Also said if you test positive and then get retested as positive it shows up on the numbers as another positive case.. Said that some people are getting tested 4 times as positive. Says the numbers are all fake. 

My niece is a nurse at killer King and doesn't buy into the fear. Yes they have cases but not like the media portrays it to be. 

Government says we are safe to eat at restaurants outside but going to the beach is dangerous.

600,000 die from heart disease every year but no ones showing us this years numbers are they?

They call it a NOVEL virus but The new coronavirus has a 79 percent genetic similarity to the SARS virus.

 

Nope.... I'm not drinking the Koolaide

 

 

[EverCurious452]

2 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

A good friend of mine's father died of pancreatic cancer a few weeks ago. Guess what the death certificate said. Covid of course.

Have you seen the death certificate?  Cause of death is a tricky thing.  Suppose some has a heart attack, but they were very overweight with high BP and high cholesterol, blocked arteries etc.   I would guess the cause of death would be shown as heart attack.  Hopefully the contributing factors are also listed but the cause is usually the actual thing that kills you not the factors that lead up to it.  For most pancreatic cancer deaths the cause is going to be liver failure (again hopefully with the fact that such was brought about by pancreatic cancer listed as well).   So if someone has pancreatic cancer gets covid and dies from respiratory failure, isn't covid the correct cause?  (obviously I don't know if that was the case with your friend's father, I'm only saying "its complicated").

 

If deaths from other cases are significally mis-labeled so to speak, then we should see a major skew in the stats (lower numbers of death from other cases).  Do we?  not that I have heard.

 

Different hospitals will of course see different situations.  I know people in the medical community in Houston and there are hospitals there that are indeed feeling overwhelmed (but even there they are not pushing people into the street or anything).   

 

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Government says we are safe to eat at restaurants outside but going to the beach is dangerous.

Both (without masks and without distance) would be dangerous but the beach is not helping the economy.

 

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600,000 die from heart disease every year but no ones showing us this years numbers are they?

Correct, even slightly more I think, but were we being shown last years numbers last year?   COVID makes the news as its new and something the government could have greatly reduced with better coordination and early action.  Heart disease has been slowly growing for many decades and  no government can enforce a public policy of "eat less exercise more and stop smoking" to cut back on heart disease so its less of a news item.  News is largely oriented around events, not steady state.

 

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They call it a NOVEL virus but The new coronavirus has a 79 percent genetic similarity to the SARS virus.

Sure, SARS-cov2 (or COVID) is 79% the same as SAR-cov (or SARS).  Its "novel" has they had not seen this particular variation and I'd say 21% is a pretty big change.

[SocalDinar]

12 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

Have you seen the death certificate?  Cause of death is a tricky thing.  Suppose some has a heart attack, but they were very overweight with high BP and high cholesterol, blocked arteries etc.   I would guess the cause of death would be shown as heart attack.  Hopefully the contributing factors are also listed but the cause is usually the actual thing that kills you not the factors that lead up to it.  For most pancreatic cancer deaths the cause is going to be liver failure (again hopefully with the fact that such was brought about by pancreatic cancer listed as well).   So if someone has pancreatic cancer gets covid and dies from respiratory failure, isn't covid the correct cause?  (obviously I don't know if that was the case with your friend's father, I'm only saying "its complicated").

 

If deaths from other cases are significally mis-labeled so to speak, then we should see a major skew in the stats (lower numbers of death from other cases).  Do we?  not that I have heard.

 

Different hospitals will of course see different situations.  I know people in the medical community in Houston and there are hospitals there that are indeed feeling overwhelmed (but even there they are not pushing people into the street or anything).   

 

Both (without masks and without distance) would be dangerous but the beach is not helping the economy.

 

Correct, even slightly more I think, but were we being shown last years numbers last year?   COVID makes the news as its new and something the government could have greatly reduced with better coordination and early action.  Heart disease has been slowly growing for many decades and  no government can enforce a public policy of "eat less exercise more and stop smoking" to cut back on heart disease so its less of a news item.  News is largely oriented around events, not steady state.

 

Sure, SARS-cov2 (or COVID) is 79% the same as SAR-cov (or SARS).  Its "novel" has they had not seen this particular variation and I'd say 21% is a pretty big change.

Well I'm just an electrical contractor so dont know the science behind medicines but I'm pretty sure I know when I'm being lied to.

Like " there is no need to where N95 masks because they don't work " Remember that? Are you a doctor? Whats your medical background?

I also find it funny that restaurants are safe when you have outdoor dining yet the entire outdoor dining areas are enclosed in large tents.

 

Where I live the beaches attract tourists and are a huge part of our local economy.

 

I do not trust government and the numbers they give us.  They tell us our current inflation rate is 1% Thats a lie and only a fool would believe this. 

[EverCurious452]

3 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

Well I'm just an electrical contractor so dont know the science behind medicines but I'm pretty sure I know when I'm being lied to.Like " there is no need to where N95 masks because they don't work " Remember that?

No actually.  I think the initial message was that we think transmission is mostly from touch AND front line medical workers need the limited supply of masks we have so the public should not be using them.  Then it became clear that air transmission is a key vector AND the supply increased so now the recommendation is to wear a cloth mask (not an N95) primarily to keep the cloud of exhaled droplets closer to you and not to send them over long distances.  That's the thing with fact/science based recommendations, they are going to change when we know more.

 

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Are you a doctor? Whats your medical background?

No, I'm a programmer.  There is a bioinformatics expert in my family (medical statistics) but I have no medial background.

 

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I also find it funny that restaurants are safe when you have outdoor dining yet the entire outdoor dining areas are enclosed in large tents.

Maybe this is trying to take a complex issue (how does the environment impact transmissibility) and simplify it to one or two simple rules and complex things sometimes just can not be simplified.  "Outdoors" I suspect was meant to be exposed to wind, so a tent should be in fact "indoors".  Where do you see tents being allowed but sold buildings not allowed?

 

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Where I live the beaches attract tourists and are a huge part of our local economy.

Perhaps the idea was that beach goers are simply unlikely to social distance or wear masks, I don't know I'm just speculating.  But again the simple open this close that rule is invariably not going to fully adhere to the actual complexity of how to curb transmission.   That does not mean that curbing transmission is not possible.

 

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I do not trust government and the numbers they give us.  They tell us our current inflation rate is 1% Thats a lie and only a fool would believe this. 

So following your lead I should now ask what are you economic qualifications?  :-) There are numerous sources of data on covid that are not wholly from the government but gathered by various universities (e.g. John's Hopkins).   I think it is usually a mistake to take you own day to day experience and assume that such translates to a view of a much lager domain like the nation let alone the world.  One of the things that was most altering to my world view when I went though a science/engineering education is that our individual perceptions of the world are often not very well correlated to actual reality.  The reach of the seat of one's pants doesn't extent much past your own chair and for some things that is enough but for others it is totally inadequate and can be very misleading.

 

As far as inflation goes from what I find (based on the CPI)  it IS about 1% at the moment, though was more like 2.5% in Jan and has fallen due to the economic slowdown.  Though numbers in realtime are always difficult to get right, its much easier to analyze things in the past, even if just the recent past.   I don't suggest blindly accepting anything, but neither to blindly reject it.  

[Markinsa]

I heard on talk radio this morning, one of the commentators talking about a friend of his who posted on Facebook that her Husband had gone to the hospital and was tested 7 times for Covid and each time it came back negative.  He died shortly after that of pneumonia, but when the death certificate came it said he died from covid.

 

Same show they also brought up another friend who was tested for covid and the results came back negative. The told ber they would pay her $300 if she allowed them to say she was positive. She said no, they called her a week later and offered her $500, and she refused.

 

.

[EverCurious452]

1 hour ago, Markinsa said:

I heard on talk radio this morning, one of the commentators talking about a friend of his who posted on Facebook that her Husband had gone to the hospital and was tested 7 times for Covid and each time it came back negative.  He died shortly after that of pneumonia, but when the death certificate came it said he died from covid.

 

Same show they also brought up another friend who was tested for covid and the results came back negative. The told ber they would pay her $300 if she allowed them to say she was positive. She said no, they called her a week later and offered her $500, and she refused.

 

Of course talk radio is a completely trustworthy source. 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-guidelines-covid19/

[SocalDinar]

2 hours ago, Markinsa said:

I heard on talk radio this morning, one of the commentators talking about a friend of his who posted on Facebook that her Husband had gone to the hospital and was tested 7 times for Covid and each time it came back negative.  He died shortly after that of pneumonia, but when the death certificate came it said he died from covid.

 

Same show they also brought up another friend who was tested for covid and the results came back negative. The told ber they would pay her $300 if she allowed them to say she was positive. She said no, they called her a week later and offered her $500, and she refused.

 

.

Thanks Markinsa,

I believe it! I have heard many things like these from friends and family members in the medical field. 

[SocalDinar]

3 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

No actually.  I think the initial message was that we think transmission is mostly from touch AND front line medical workers need the limited supply of masks we have so the public should not be using them.  Then it became clear that air transmission is a key vector AND the supply increased so now the recommendation is to wear a cloth mask (not an N95) primarily to keep the cloud of exhaled droplets closer to you and not to send them over long distances.  That's the thing with fact/science based recommendations, they are going to change when we know more.

 

No, I'm a programmer.  There is a bioinformatics expert in my family (medical statistics) but I have no medial background.

 

Maybe this is trying to take a complex issue (how does the environment impact transmissibility) and simplify it to one or two simple rules and complex things sometimes just can not be simplified.  "Outdoors" I suspect was meant to be exposed to wind, so a tent should be in fact "indoors".  Where do you see tents being allowed but sold buildings not allowed?

 

Perhaps the idea was that beach goers are simply unlikely to social distance or wear masks, I don't know I'm just speculating.  But again the simple open this close that rule is invariably not going to fully adhere to the actual complexity of how to curb transmission.   That does not mean that curbing transmission is not possible.

 

So following your lead I should now ask what are you economic qualifications? 🙂 There are numerous sources of data on covid that are not wholly from the government but gathered by various universities (e.g. John's Hopkins).   I think it is usually a mistake to take you own day to day experience and assume that such translates to a view of a much lager domain like the nation let alone the world.  One of the things that was most altering to my world view when I went though a science/engineering education is that our individual perceptions of the world are often not very well correlated to actual reality.  The reach of the seat of one's pants doesn't extent much past your own chair and for some things that is enough but for others it is totally inadequate and can be very misleading.

 

As far as inflation goes from what I find (based on the CPI)  it IS about 1% at the moment, though was more like 2.5% in Jan and has fallen due to the economic slowdown.  Though numbers in realtime are always difficult to get right, its much easier to analyze things in the past, even if just the recent past.   I don't suggest blindly accepting anything, but neither to blindly reject it.  

John Hopkins has an agenda . So does Bill Gates.  

 

Surgeon General Urges the Public to Stop Buying Face Masks

 

• Published Feb. 29, 2020Updated April 4, 2020
• •  

The surgeon general on Saturday urged the public to stop buying masks, warning that it won’t help against the spread of the coronavirus but will take away important resources from health care professionals.

“Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS!” the surgeon general, Jerome M. Adams, said in a tweet on Saturday morning. “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if health care providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”

The plea comes as panicked consumers rush to buy masks online, including so-called N95s, a surge that has led to price gouging and counterfeit products.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-n95-face-masks.html

 

My niece has told me that none of her coworkers have contracted the virus! ZERO

Seems odd to me. She works at a large county run hospital.

 

And here in CA restaurants can only offer take out and outdoor dining. 

Most started with EZ ups but many now have full blown rental tents. Almost every Denny's here has them

Also many are serving food on sidewalks where the general public walk by within inches of the tables.

 

I just got back from a three day tuna fishing trip ( we slayed them ) with 24 anglers and 4 crew members on board. Masks required in the harbor but they all came off once at sea. A week later and all of us are fine.  I guess we beat the odds

 

They lie to us about inflation to keep Inflationary adjustments to Social security etc... low.

I personally have had to raise my labor rates 20% in the last two years to keep up with it.

 

And I also had to raise the price on my product I invented and market 12% this year. Its an accessory for RVs ( no pun intended ) and travel trailers. BTW our sales have doubled over this time last year.

 

UVB and UVC radiation damages the virus so one would think the beach is safer than any grocery store

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2020 by SocalDinar

[Markinsa]

4 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

 

Of course talk radio is a completely trustworthy source. 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-guidelines-covid19/

 

Compared to snopes???   Yep!

 

 

.

[Markinsa]

https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/274396-corona-virus-movie/

[EverCurious452]

3 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

John Hopkins has an agenda . So does Bill Gates.  

By "an agenda" I presume you mean some hidden nefarious agenda not the obvious one of providing information and care.  Do you have actual evidence of this, or is that just a covenant way for you to rationalize ignoring what they say or publish?

 

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Surgeon General Urges the Public to Stop Buying Face Masks

 

• Published Feb. 29, 2020Updated April 4, 2020

The surgeon general on Saturday urged the public to stop buying masks, warning that it won’t help against the spread of the coronavirus but will take away important resources from health care professionals.

 

 

This is exactly what I said.  Initially it was not thought masks would be that useful to the public but they are essential for workers who are inches away from likely infected people all day so give the shortage they should be allocated to the medical workers.  We now know that the part about not helping for the public was wrong.   If you want unchaining dogma science is not for you.

 

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My niece has told me that none of her coworkers have contracted the virus! ZERO

Seems odd to me. She works at a large county run hospital.

 

So first is she speaking of the entire hospital or just her coworkers?  If the infection rate in the area has been low (and this varies a lot) and their precautions are good then why is this odd?

 

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And here in CA restaurants can only offer take out and outdoor dining. 

Most started with EZ ups but many now have full blown rental tents. Almost every Denny's here has them

Also many are serving food on sidewalks where the general public walk by within inches of the tables.

 

As I said the "indoor bad outdoor good" rule is likely too simplistic. Using a large tent sounds like a loophole to me since that is just a soft building.   But the fact that the rules in place are far from perfect and have loopholes does not mean its all some sort of fraud not actually intended to curb transmission.

 

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I just got back from a three day tuna fishing trip ( we slayed them ) with 24 anglers and 4 crew members on board. Masks required in the harbor but they all came off once at sea. A week later and all of us are fine.  I guess we beat the odds

Sweet!   But why is this so "beating the odds".  If none of you had the virus then once isolated on the boat.  What is the infection rate in your county and what does that say about the probability that 1 in 25 would be infected?  and "a week later all of us are fine".  A week is little borderline, but have you actually contacted all 27 others to see if they are fine?

 

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They lie to us about inflation to keep Inflationary adjustments to Social security etc... low.

I personally have had to raise my labor rates 20% in the last two years to keep up with it.

 

So you claim general living expenses are 20% higher now then 2 years ago?  I sure don't experience that.

 

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UVB and UVC radiation damages the virus so one would think the beach is safer than any grocery store

The outside is the outside.  Its breathing in near someone else (who is infected) who is breathing out the issue and people do not tend to social distance or wear masks on the beach, but they do in grocery stores.

[EverCurious452]

14 minutes ago, Markinsa said:

 

Compared to snopes???   Yep!

 

Snopes shows all the documentation that lead them to their determination and is a non-profit.  Talk radio just makse random assertions and the more outlandish the more listeners they get and the money they make.  You're being lead and you don't even know it.

911 was really the US

Sandyhook was all actors

Hillarious Clinton is running a satanic pedofile ring out of the basement of Comet Pingpong.

COVID-19 is just a flu.

COVID-19 is spared by 5G

That parrot is not dead he's just resting.   ok I threw that one in just for fun.

[EverCurious452]

22 minutes ago, Markinsa said:

https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/274396-corona-virus-movie/

Except of course that unfortunately Chloroquine has at best little (and perhaps no) impact on COID-19.

[Markinsa]

9 minutes ago, EverCurious452 said:

Except of course that unfortunately Chloroquine has at best little (and perhaps no) impact on COID-19.

 

Frontline Doctors talking about the Effectiveness of Hydroxy chloroquine.

 

https://seed307.bitchute.com/Niu5oUDk3EoI/Pg4niRXbW1bk.mp4

 

https://americasfrontlinedoctorsummit.com/media/

 

 

[SocalDinar]

1 hour ago, EverCurious452 said:

Snopes shows all the documentation that lead them to their determination and is a non-profit.  Talk radio just makse random assertions and the more outlandish the more listeners they get and the money they make.  You're being lead and you don't even know it.

911 was really the US

Sandyhook was all actors

Hillarious Clinton is running a satanic pedofile ring out of the basement of Comet Pingpong.

COVID-19 is just a flu.

COVID-19 is spared by 5G

That parrot is not dead he's just resting.   ok I threw that one in just for fun.

You forgot The Earth is Flat

[Markinsa]

Why we're still arguing about hydroxychloroquine

by Jeremy Beaman, Commentary Fellow

 | August 07, 2020 03:44 PM

•  

Print this The battle over hydroxychloroquine began as a kind of trivial but apparently earnest and hopeful celebrity endorsement of the drug (the celebrity being President Trump). It has devolved into a real political and public-discourse horror show.

 

 

Perpetual back-and-forths between those prominent doctors who do not believe in the drug’s effectiveness — coronavirus task force members Anthony Fauci and Brett Giroir are two — and dissident, lesser-known doctors, such as Harvey Risch of Yale University, have given birth to serious questions about how truly scientific the whole conversation has been.

 

Can hydroxychloroquine be used effectively to treat COVID-19? The most prominent voices say no, citing several randomized controlled trials, but others say it is, citing their own clinical evidence.

 

The question that nobody seems to be asking is, what is the standard of evidence required for granting emergency use authorizations, or EUAs, for drugs in the first place? And what are the limits of various kinds of clinical trials?

 

The Food and Drug Administration approved an EUA for use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in hospitalized patients on March 28. Importantly, for the purpose of reinforcing distinct categories, its authorization was for a targeted use: hospitalized patients. When the FDA authorized the drug, there was no significant evidence of effectiveness from randomized controlled trials, or RCTs.

 

In a March 28 letter on authorization, FDA Chief Scientist Denise Hinton wrote, “Based upon limited in-vitro and anecdotal clinical data in case series, chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate are currently recommended for treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in several countries … FDA is issuing this EUA to facilitate the availability of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate during the COVID-19 pandemic to treat patients for whom a clinical trial is not available, or participation is not feasible.”

 

The letter suggests that randomized controlled trials are not the “gold standard” for authorizing an EUA. If they were, the March 28 EUA would not have gone through. RCTs do not appear to be the gold standard in other circumstances of drug approval, either. On July 31, the FDA granted accelerated approval of a cancer medication absent any randomized controlled trial.

 

Moreover, once the treatments and the trials began, researchers in the most notable studies followed those who the EUA had authorized for treatment, namely hospitalized patients. The FDA has since revoked its authorization of hydroxychloroquine on the basis of those various trials, determining no real effectiveness and even suggesting it is considerably dangerous.

 

These contextual points, along with a score of clinical evidence, are among the reasons that Risch, a professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, has argued in favor of using hydroxychloroquine to treat high-risk outpatients early in their disease.

 

To the evidence, Risch argues that doctors have offered more than enough evidence of hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness for outpatient use in high-risk patients. To the authorization, the FDA does not need randomized controlled trials to issue an emergency use authorization. It could do so for outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine, and Risch says the evidence is there.

 

“We’ve been saying that the people to look at are the ones you have to treat,” Risch said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “We’re talking about outpatient, high-risk treatment, and that’s it.”

 

Risch has emerged as a loud voice in favor of using the drug specifically for that category of patients, so loud and contrarian, in fact, that 25 fellow faculty signed on to a stinging rebuke of his advocacy for a targeted use of the drug.

 

Risch cites the clinical findings of doctors such as Vladimir Zelenko, a New York physician who has demonstrated success in treating high-risk outpatients with hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin. He cites other evidence showing success in high-risk outpatients in Brazil and France, including reduced risk of hospitalization. Risch discusses these studies in a recent Newsweek op-ed and in a paper he wrote for the American Journal of Epidemiology.

 

These findings, he argues, demonstrate evidence even stronger than a “may be effective” standard, justifying an EUA for outpatient use. “The FDA can’t go up to a doctor and say, ‘You haven’t seen what you’ve seen,’” he said.

 

Risch’s other argument is that the clinical trials cited by the FDA as a justification for revoking the March 28 authorization, the same trials used by public health officials such as Fauci to dismiss hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness, did not track high-risk outpatients early in their disease and, for that reason, can’t speak to that category of use.

 

A result of early treatment of high-risk outpatients, Risch says, is reduced hospitalization rates. That hypothesis can’t be tested in hospital trials. “You can’t talk about risk of hospitalization of people who are already in the hospital,” he said. For these reasons, Risch argues that the studies are not sufficient to challenge claims that the drug works to reduce severity and hospitalization in early high-risk outpatients.

 

Fauci and others have considered the hospitalization trials evidence that the drug simply doesn’t work, which is more than problematic for Risch. “The interference from those who do not want this comes from people who are blurring the distinctions.”

 

Risch argues that politics has damned the whole conversation, and science can’t run its course. “Show me negative evidence in high-risk outpatients where this was given early that it doesn’t work, I’ll shut up,” he said. “Show me evidence that it causes adverse events in outpatient usage in a way that surmounts the amount of death that is caused by people who don’t get treated, then I’ll shut up. Nobody has done that.”

 

Dr. Myron Cohen, a professor of medicine at UNC-Chapel Hill, made a similar observation in a recent editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine. “It would appear that to some extent the media and social forces — rather than medical evidence — are driving clinical decisions and the global COVID-19 research agenda,” he writes.

 

Whatever the ultimate truth of hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness, it’s becoming more evident that there’s something going on at the intersection of medical science and public health policy that isn’t very healthy.

 

 

[Markinsa]

 

 

 

[EverCurious452]

4 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

You forgot The Earth is Flat

True enough!  I have heard people say some people actually believe this though I have never met one (well discounting the one guy I ran into that claimed it was true but I am pretty sure he was seriously high on something)..  I have browed the supposed evidence the put in various websites and its just silly.   Such things do not bode well for the future of our civilization.

[EverCurious452]

4 hours ago, Markinsa said:

Why we're still arguing about hydroxychloroquine

by Jeremy Beaman, Commentary Fellow

 | August 07, 2020 03:44 PM

First The Washington Examiner where Bearman publishes does not even pretend to be objective.

I'll cut to the one part of his article that is worth examining (I'll do it for you as I know you did not).

 

Quote

 

Risch cites the clinical findings of doctors such as Vladimir Zelenko, a New York physician who has demonstrated success in treating high-risk outpatients with hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin. He cites other evidence showing success in high-risk outpatients in Brazil and France, including reduced risk of hospitalization. Risch discusses these studies in a recent Newsweek op-ed and in a paper he wrote for the American Journal of Epidemiology.

 

 

If you actually go to the journal link and look at the paper you will see a series of responses from the very clinicians Risch references pointing out the major flaws in his paper and wondering how it ever could have been accepted for publication.   At the risk of oversimplifying he compares death rates in widely different cohorts (one mostly representing the French population overall  that got hydroxychloroquine and one representing only those in critical care for covid in hospitals that did not).  He also makes serious errors with sample size (one of the many non-intuitive results of statistics is that even a large change in a very small sample does NOT imply that change will be reflected in a large sample).  The very people he sites strongly disagree with his conclusions.   

 

Quote

These findings, he argues, demonstrate evidence even stronger than a “may be effective” standard, justifying an EUA for outpatient use. “The FDA can’t go up to a doctor and say, ‘You haven’t seen what you’ve seen,’” he said.

They can actually.  The whole point of the scientific method is that humans, no matter how well credentialed, are not capable of being objective.  A doctor using a particular treatment of course thinks it will work so they are predisposed to find exactly that result.  That is why large randomized clinical trials are essential and the only way to tell if something works (short of a miracle cure such as a patient is about to be pronounced dead jumps up and runs a marathon and no one, not even Ricsh is claiming anything of the sort).

 

Publication is a big step and Risch got over that hurdle, but its only the first step.  Publication allows for wider review and replication and that is essential (papers are commonly retracted after publication).  He appears to be failing rather badly on that score.

Edited August 14, 2020 by EverCurious452

[SocalDinar]

14 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

 

John Hopkins and Gates foundation are both privately owned. Most privately owned businesses and foundations have personal agendas.

Everyone has opinions and biases  . I do. Its human nature

 

Most flus spread by droplets. Thats a fact. Are you saying our surgeon general did not know this regarding covid when he stated That N95 masks dont help. Of course they wanted to stop a panic buy so hey lied to us. Right? And never said anything about science not changing but science is often wrong. Any science effecting forced rules upon the public should be scrutinized better. 

 

She runs the nurses in a  large county run hospital in South central Los Angeles. Says its busy but mostly because of fear driven paranoia Everyone with a cough is going to ER in these neighborhoods. And did not give specifics about coworkers or entire hospital staff.

 

Our leaders in CA and most of the country knew that the public would not handle a shutdown order any longer.  No way we can afford too.The riots were not caused by George Floyd.  

 

Well we all did take a temp reading boarding the boat so you are correct but our wives were pretty concerned that we all would catch it.None of us were. And it was a three day trip so it has now been 11 days since contact. It was a private charter ( mostly employees of my friends company ) so we all know each other. The boat has done two trips since so im only guessing the crew is ok. Not 100% sure

.

Rent has gone up 25% in my town. Lots of lower income people being forced to move. Bacon is not sold by the pound anymore heremore like 12 ounces for the same price ( hidden 25 % inflation. ) my materiel costs are rising over 9 % a year. I expect more now since Covid and tariffs. There is also a shortage of tradesman caused by our schools dumbing vocational classes years ago. Most kids cant even change a flat tire these days.  Homeowners also are cheap and hire illegal help. That why i got out of Residential work. . Insurance rates up every year. Ticky tack OSHA requirements and fines getting worse every year.   Did you know that CALOSHA requires fall protection for any worker working over 4 ft from the ground? Thats a $30.000 fine for being five feet off the ground without a harness. Tell me how to attach a lanyard when nothing to strap to is available. OSHA says you must build it LOL.  Also did you know that Every business is required by law to have MSDS sheets posted in bathrooms listing all chemicals used to clean bathroom with.  LOL what a joke.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by SocalDinar

[rockfl9]

165 K and counting dead people is what we are looking at .Sure the first 10 K were mainly elderly and   had known  health problems . Would have died soon anyway .  But now those numbers are dwarfed by the number of young healthy individuals with no other symptoms but Covid.  Masks dont prevent an infection ithey just give a level of protection.,  

If DJT would show leadership and set an example by wearing one we would have mandatory mask rules across the country.sooner,

Would have saved many lives .

Edited August 14, 2020 by rockfl9

[SocalDinar]

6 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

165 K and counting dead people is what we are looking at .Sure the first 10 K were mainly elderly and   had known  health problems . Would have died soon anyway .  But now those numbers are dwarfed by the number of young healthy individuals with no other symptoms but Covid.  Masks dont prevent an infection ithey just give a level of protection.,  

If DJT would show leadership and set an example by wearing one we would have mandatory mask rules across the country.sooner,

Would have saved many lives .

But when doctors are pressured to list Covid as cause of death we cant believe those numbers. Not saying the virus does not kill. It does. But hospitals are businesses. Like any business they will try to maximize profits. A large part of their income comes from elective surgeries and many people chose not to go to hospitals now for other things. They took a big hit. I can see why doctors are pressured to put down Covid as cause of death with those on Medicare.  Does Not obviously hurt the dead person to falsify records so it does not effect their oath. 

It might not be a huge amount of these cases but i doubt there are none doing this too.

 

Sure would like to see the numbers on other common death causes . 

 

The hospital my niece works at hired lots of contract nurses from out of state. When the expected cases of Covid never materialized they had to furlough many of their normal staff.  I personally don't know one person that has even tested positive for the virus. And I know a lot of people. None of the businesses i work for have had a single case either. All still open and doing business as usual.