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Adam Montana Weekly 22 April 2020 - WHAT IS GOING ON?!


Adam Montana
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16 hours ago, wc41 said:

Adam.... (and LGD) I totally get SUDDENLY!!! Definitely!!!!!

And we all will VERY SOON :tiphat:

 

 

13 hours ago, olivesman said:

I'm thinking Ramadan would be THE time to catch the world off guard!

My Friend, the world is completely off guard and upside down now. 

 

 

13 hours ago, Rochester said:

 

In light of all this: Is it reasonable to assume that something insane is going on? I think so

So true. We all believed that this event would just be Iraq and maybe Vietnam having a currency revolution. But clearly what is happening now is far more than just that. And "THE PLAN" is about to be unleashed upon the world. 

in that process those who hold Dinar are going to be very happy that they never gave up hope. 

 

 

12 hours ago, Happy Man said:

Hi Adam,

I posted a comment last weeks about comparing the political situation of Iraq with the one In Liban some 30 years ago.

Do you think that oil is the only thing that can prevent the same thing happening to Iraq that happened in Liban.

At the time what broke up Liban is the power struggle between religious factions even if they were able to live together and share powers for many years

30 years ago we didn't have troops in Libya, at least not like we have today in Iraq. And we aren't in Iraq just for the oil and currency revolution. We're going to take out the terrorists regime in Iran.  Iraq is our staging ground. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Rochester said:

 I agree. One belt, one road and the parallel Chinese petroYuan....obviously are the Chinese are trying to take over the world. The U.S. has control of the high seas and China can't match that, so they want their goods to move mostly over land....one belt one road, is tying other nations into China's economic system. One belt, one road is setting up a parallel system for trade and moving goods, around the world...parallel to moving things over the oceans, which Americans control. China wants to make Iraq into China's gas station and get everyone in the region trading in Chinese currency. That's what the fight is about.

 

As I understand it, having the world's reserve currency gives the United States an enormous trading advantage, since they can simply print more American money...which is what everyone wants right now. Without this, the United States would have to take a very steep decline in their standard of living. Ultimately the value of the American fiat currency depends on force and everyone agreeing to use it. I see a military confrontation with China as eventually likely, after a long period of economic war. There can only be one nation as the one superpower to run the world, my guess is a world with two superpowers will be very, very unstable. It won't work. That's why China will have to be taken down, because if China is allowed to grow, America is finished, because they are technically clever and have a population 5X that of the United States. One has to win: China or America. I don't understand all the economics but long story short, American dominance of the world's economy would end, if China gets away with undermining the American dollar. My guess is President Trump understands this fully and intends to take China down.

 

I have no doubt that China is trying to destroy the United States. They've been at it for a long long time. Americans are generally a bit naive about other cultures....no insult intended, but I think it's true as a generalization. Those with enough experience dealing with other cultures, they quickly have those delusions cast aside, but a lot of people are pretty naive. 

 

All this is tied up with control over the flow of oil in the Middle East...thus Iraq is key to the world's economy, key to deciding if America or China gets to run the 21st Century. CNN, ABC, CNBC NBC, CBS are all cheering  for China. It's fairly dismal. The mainstream American media are all traitors...Benedict Arnolds...with the exception of Fox News..Plus one of your two main political parties seems hell bent on destroying The United States....My guess is, if the Democrats win, America as a superpower is over. Democrats would be too weak to stand up to China.  I think both Democrats and Republicans are to blame for this mess. Over several decades they made blunder after blunder, completely mismanaging and ruining the United States....such as offshoring manufacturing to China. Trump is doing his best to reverse that. 

 

One key to that rivalry is oil. China needs oil, but China has little long range force projection, to maintain security over their much needed oil. That's a great weakness because America can make sure China doesn't get any oil, can make their economy collapse. However, America can't just take China out, even after this virus.. It's complicated because China and America both are inter-twined economically, so that's going to take a long time to unravel. The 2020s should be "interesting times", as the Chinese curse says, "May you be born in interesting times"...

 

Really appreciate your post...

 

It is a struggle for control....East vs West....

 

China has the huge population.....but the US and Russia hold 90% of the Worlds nukes.....

 

Today's warfare is more along the lines of cyber, bio-weapons  or economic.......throw in an EMP as a possibility as well.....

 

A news letter follows below....an economist who I trust.....a numbers guy.....

 

If you have the time or interest, you might enjoy the read...CL

 

 

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US DEFICIT $4T & DEBT $28T – WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?

April 23, 2020
 
by Egon von Greyerz
 

Will the Coronavirus be the catalyst of not just a depression but also major reduction in global population? The growth in world population since the 1850s has been explosive. In the 1850s there were 1 billion people and today we are 7.8 billion. Although many “experts” have extrapolated the growth to 10 billion and more in coming decades, this has in my view not been based on sound reasoning. Instead, as I been writing about and discussed many times the spike in population that we have seen in the last 170 years will not end well.

Anyone who can read a chart knows that a spike on a major sample doesn’t continue straight up. And it doesn’t just correct sideways either. At some point, a spike up is always corrected by a major spike down. I talked about this in my article from April 2018. Below is an extract from this article:

WORLD POPULATION WILL DECLINE

The world has had many crises of various degrees in the past, be it the Black Death in the mid 1300s when an estimated 75 to 200 million people died in Europe and Asia. Around 50% of Europe’s population is estimated to have perished. In WWI around 20 million people died and in WWII around 60-80 million. So major catastrophes are part of history and the coming one could also see a major reduction in world population be it from economic crisis, famine, disease, social unrest or war.

image.png.58c43f4cb9128f520b07559be8fd43e3.png

From the mid 1800s to today world population has grown from 1 billion to 7.6 billion. If we look at the graph it is a straight spike up in the last 170 years. From a technical perspective, spikes up are always corrected by a spike down. We can’t tell when exactly that spike down will come but it is likely to be connected to the coming collapse of the financial system. A reduction in global population of 3-4 billion in the next few decades is a real possibility.

As I have stated in many recent articles, Coronavirus is not the reason for the downturn in the world economy that is now starting but the catalyst. I did not forecast that a pandemic would be the trigger. But in retrospect, the end of the biggest economic bubble in world history really had to come with an unexpected and unconventional catalyst.

A NEW MIRACLE PARADIGM OR A DISEASED SYSTEM?

That the world economy for the last 100 years was totally dependent on credit and printed money is not a new miracle paradigm but a the sign of diseased system. Issuing fake money at zero cost always had to end badly. In a perverse way it is almost ironic that the trigger for ending this sick financial system would be a pandemic disease. But this is Murphy’s law. If anything can go wrong, it will go wrong in the worst possible way and at the worst time.

As I said in my article above, “So major catastrophes are part of history and the coming one could also see a major reduction in world population be it from economic crisis, famine, disease, social unrest or war.”

Now the world is in a situation when all of those factors will probably come to pass. We already have the economic crisis and we have a disease. There is not a major famine yet but this is likely to come. Social unrest and war are probable consequences of these problems. Hungry and poor people will rise against their leaders and against the elite. The differences in income and wealth between the rich and the poor have created an untenable situation. This is virtually without exception how every revolution starts.

WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM

Central banks around the world are of course doing their best to stop the world from going into poverty. They are now creating unlimited amounts of money in order to assist small and big businesses as well as individuals. Everybody is expecting a handout whether it is a major US business or an unemployed individual. It is of course wonderful that everyone gets help but no one asks where is the money coming from.

Nobody worries about that THERE IS NO MONEY. The $ 100s of billions and trillions that are being given to the needy don’t exist. They are just created out of thin air. Since the crisis started in the early autumn of 2019 with the Repos, the Fed’s balance sheet has gone up by almost $3 trillion to $6.5T. But this is just the beginning. The forecast is that it will reach $9T in June and probably $12T a couple of months later.

fed-balance-sheet.png

What we must remember is that this crisis didn’t start now but in 2006 when the Fed’s balance sheet was $800K. By 2012 it had gone to $3T. So in the next few months, the balance sheet will explode by 3-4x to $12T.

As I discussed in last week’s article the budget deficit will also get out of hand. In the current year the US could easily reach a deficit in excess of $4T, taking the debt to $28T. If we just go back 3 months, who would have believed a Fed balance sheet reaching $12T and a US debt of $28T? These would have been seen like preposterous fantasy figures. The problem with most forecasters and economists is that all they understand is just to extend the current trend. But they don’t even do that because if they had, they would have realised that US debt has doubled every 8 years since 1981.

So the US is likely to have a debt of $40T in 2025 but that figure is most probably much too low. Because next we are going to see failures not just in the economy but also in the financial system. At that point, the current rescue packages of $2-5T will be dwarfed by bank rescues of $10s to $100s of trillions. And when finally the derivative bubble bursts we could be into the $quadrillions. Again, most people will today consider these figures as sensational scaremongering. But that is the risk the financial system is now facing and we are now in a phase when the surprises will be much worse than anyone can imagine.

budget-deficit-surplus.png

NOTHING WILL BE THE SAME

For decades the world has been in an Alice in Wonderland fantasy phase. It all started with private bankers taking control of the financial system in 1913 when they founded the Fed for their own benefit. For almost 60 years their power grew gradually but then in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window, all hell broke lose. Money printing and credit expansion have grown exponentially since that time.

The US already started what is now 60 years of deficit spending. Every single year since 1960, the US has a deficit. The Clinton surpluses in the late 1990s were all fake since debt continued to increase. Just imagine that the mighty US has lived on a lie for more than half a century. The economic miracle is not a miracle at all but just printed wealth.

Since the main aim of politicians is to buy votes, Nixon had no choice back in 1971. The US had already at that point been running a deficit for 10 years. With a gold standard, it is necessary to run an honest financial system without deficits. Otherwise you lose all your gold and the currency collapses. Since Nixon had no intention to run surpluses, he could not be tied by a gold standard and therefore abolished the gold backing of the dollar. The consequences were of course disastrous and the dollar has fallen ever since.

The chart below shows the not so mighty dollar against the Swiss franc since 1971. The dollar has so far lost 78%. The technical target tells us that the dollar will come down another 50% against the Swissy. But we shouldn’t measure currencies against each other since they will all go down to their intrinsic value of ZERO.

usd-vs-chf.png

Instead, if we measure the dollar against gold it is already down 98% since Nixon’s fatal decision. The remaining 2% fall to Zero is likely to happen in the next 1-4 years. But we must remember that this involves a 100% fall from today of most currencies against gold.

US DEBT FROM $800 BILLION TO $76 TRILLION WITH 60 YEARS OF DEFICITS

Since the US started running deficits in 60 years ago, total US debt has gone from $800 billion to $76 trillion today. What we are seeing is a fantasy world all built on debt, federal, state, consumer, mortgage, auto, student etc. The list is endless how to create fake wealth just based on debt.

But the US is now coming back out of the Rabbit Hole and back to reality which will be the biggest shock in history. The Coronavirus was the perfect catalyst albeit horrible. The trillions of fake money and fake assets will now implode and so will the US economy. The rest of the world will sadly follow.

What the world has experienced in the last 100 years is not real capitalism. It more resembles Voodoo capitalism. Central bankers, led by the Fed, have successfully adopted Mayer Amschel Rothschild’s philosophy: “Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”

permit-me.png

By doing this, they have put a spell on the global financial system and lumbering it with debt that could never be repaid. The beauty of having done this from the bankers point of view is that they are the only ones who can lift the spell. First they are instrumental in creating a debt infested world economy and then they are the only ones who can come to the rescue and “save” it. And in both instances they benefit greatly.

The problem is that the cure will be even worse than the original action. A best burdened world can never be saved by more debt. But this is the only remedy the central bankers know. So next we will see unlimited money printing that crushes currencies and leads to a depressionary hyperinflation.

MARKETS

In real terms all bubble assets will now crash. Real terms means in stable purchasing power and measured against gold. So we will see stocks, bonds and property decline by 90-100% against gold. In nominal terms, stocks might go up initially with hyperinflation. But that will only be illusory gains.

Stocks around the world fell initially by around 40% and have now recovered half of that fall as stock investors have been buying the dips in the hope that central banks will save them yet another time. But they will soon have their next shock. Markets could start their next leg down already in the coming week. Or it could take 2-3 weeks. What is clear is that a secular bear market has started which has a very long way to go.

GOLD – STILL MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED

For 20 years I have talked about the importance of wealth preservation in the form of physical gold. During that time gold is up 6-7 times depending on which currency you measure it in. But still, less than 0.5% of world financial assets are in gold.

Gold is still incredibly undervalued in relation to the growth of global money supply. It is still possible to get gold, but the physical market is under real pressure. The three largest refiners in the world, based in Ticino Switzerland, are now working at 30-40% capacity. So major shortages are developing. Spreads are now much higher but the price for wholesale gold is still governed by the paper market.

This is a ridiculous situation that will not last long. Both the Comex and the LBMA are under enormous pressure which soon will lead to massive delivery problems and a major price squeeze. So the window of opportunity to acquire physical gold at current prices will soon close.

Remember that gold is real physical wealth as well as insurance against a financial system that is unlikely to survive. Gold can still be bought with overvalued fiat money at prices substantially below its real value but not for much longer.

 

 
 
 

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 70 countries.
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LGD,

 

Good Morning My Brother,

 

I love it when you get your warm and fuzzy feeling about this ride. To date, you owe me 3 Lobster Dinners and 2 Prime Rib Dinners if my memory serves me correctly. I feel the same as you, it will happen Suddenly! However, I always bet against you on the SOON!!! There are still a couple tell-tell signs that I MUST see before I move to an any day now scenario in my mind. HOWEVER,... I am willing again to put my Dinar where my Dining Affections are and Wager you and anybody else who choose to feed my family at the Big Dance. This time, I want Caviar and I don't want the cheap stuff either. I want Caviar from Putin's table. While you are at it, you can bring Adam in on this. He can run down to Mars Cheese Castle and pick up a 100 year old cheese block that we can bring to the "Dance" that I will share as an accompaniment to an aperitif for all my Dinar friends. So LGD, if you are REALLY feeling it...put a timeframe on it my Truck Driving Friend. Stay Safe and I am seriously looking forward to sharing a meal provided BY YOU at the Big Dance. 😝😝😝

 

Blessings Brother

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1 hour ago, moneysoon said:

So LGD, if you are REALLY feeling it...put a timeframe on it my Truck Driving Friend. Stay Safe and I am seriously looking forward to sharing a meal provided BY YOU at the Big Dance

😎😎😃😃😃

Not sure about a date, but I can tell you that I've already been looking at some land as far away from people as I can get. 😃😃

There are other reasons that I feel the way I do, but they are extremely personal and wouldn't be understood by many here. Suffice it to say, SUDDENLY, for what it's worth, is here. 

Though I would STRONGLY advise people to read the article just posted above by @coorslite21. SUDDENLY is not the end, it's the beginning.  

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A while back in these post someone stated that if the oil could stay steady around 50 bucks or so per barrel that would be a perfect time to RV. Now the oil has hit an all time low according to some it's a great time to RV.  I have been reading these post for many years and it seems to me that everytime something goes on around the world or in Iraq people can twist it to their liking and its RV time again. Every year around Ramadan oooo it's a perfect time to RV. I would love to see this RV but I refuse to read into any news source and twist it to make me feel good. I just wont read into things. When or if it does happen I am sure we will know, but reading into things and deciphering the news to our own liking wont move it along any faster.  I know I am pissin on your dreams ( mine too ) been in this since may/june 2005. 

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2 minutes ago, Engine1 said:

A while back in these post someone stated that if the oil could stay steady around 50 bucks or so per barrel that would be a perfect time to RV. Now the oil has hit an all time low according to some it's a great time to RV.  I have been reading these post for many years and it seems to me that everytime something goes on around the world or in Iraq people can twist it to their liking and its RV time again. Every year around Ramadan oooo it's a perfect time to RV. I would love to see this RV but I refuse to read into any news source and twist it to make me feel good. I just wont read into things. When or if it does happen I am sure we will know, but reading into things and deciphering the news to our own liking wont move it along any faster.  I know I am pissin on your dreams ( mine too ) been in this since may/june 2005. 

 

No worries.....good to express your feelings in a constructive way.....my limited understanding of Iraq and Ramadan is nothing ever is accomplished  during the event.....enjoy your day!

CL

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2 hours ago, coorslite21 said:

you have the time or interest, you might enjoy the read...CL

 

 

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Gold stocks up today, AEM, NEM, GOLD, KL, FNV.  I traded AEM most of the morning

 

Also got a nice hit on Oil stock, CVX. 

 

There is opportunity at your front door if you will study, try something new, and open the damn front door!!!!  

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20 minutes ago, Engine1 said:

A while back in these post someone stated that if the oil could stay steady around 50 bucks or so per barrel that would be a perfect time to RV. Now the oil has hit an all time low according to some it's a great time to RV.  I have been reading these post for many years and it seems to me that everytime something goes on around the world or in Iraq people can twist it to their liking and its RV time again. Every year around Ramadan oooo it's a perfect time to RV. I would love to see this RV but I refuse to read into any news source and twist it to make me feel good. I just wont read into things. When or if it does happen I am sure we will know, but reading into things and deciphering the news to our own liking wont move it along any faster.  I know I am pissin on your dreams ( mine too ) been in this since may/june 2005. 

Truth...

 

Might be time for LGD to give us at least a dumbed down rant of what he "knows", then.

 

With caps, obviously.

 

He's like the Ozzy of DV. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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