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Adam Montana Weekly 8 April 2020


Adam Montana
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Happy Easter to all.  I hope you all had a very Blessed Day!!

 

I got a few hours to check out some charts today in preparation for the coming weeks trading action.  Below is a Daily Chart of the S&P 500.  Below are my thoughts on the chart and some things I’ll be watching for in the coming days.  I just want to reiterate even though last week was a great week we are still in a Bear Market.  

 

 

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I clicked the chart before I wrote the comments. Haha. Here are the comments. 

 

 

1.  Notice the RSI at the top of the chart.  That can be a prime buying point in a Bull Market.  In this Market I have no idea.  

 

2.  The Price of the S&P 500 tagged the EMA 50 and backed off on Friday.  I’m looking for a breakthrough of that resistance line but I’m thinking we may be down tomorrow on a sell off on the oil news.  I know that makes zero sense but that’s the game. The big boys sell the news.  

 

3.  I circled the gap open from 4 days ago.  It would not surprise me if we retrace back down to fill that gap and we better hold those three days low or we could retrace to the lows from March 23.  

 

As usual the charts dont necessarily predict what will happen next.  It just gives you things to watch for so you can make your decisions.  I talked to 8 traders this weekend and 5 think are going to back off that Ema 50 and drift back down to fill that gap.  The other 3 believe the lows for this sell off are in and we are going higher this week.  Earnings start this week and it is going to be interesting to say the least.  I am more interested in forward guidance for Q3 and Q4.  With the CV curve trying to flatten hopefully we can get the proper testing available so America can start filtering back to work.  I believe this market can go with all the Stimulus and backstopping by the Fed and the US Government but I think it is going to take longer than many are predicting.

 

Having the Oil War stopped is big news and it’s good news.  The flattening of the curve of the CV is good news.  Keep watching the news and I will keep giving you my thoughts.  

 

One last thing to wach.  I noticed Gold creeping up and is sitting at a breakout point.  I’ve tried 2 Swings in GDX and AEM and had to sell both before I wanted to.  If we breakout this week it could be good for gold plays like GOLD, AEM , NEM, FNV, KL, GLD,  GDX. 

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Today we got a lot of downgrades from the analysts in what I call a cover you a** move.  I was watching gold and oil and the big boys sold the oil news and I’m not surprised.  Some gold plays have worked, gld and Fnv. Gold is still at that breakout point. It could go either way. The S&P backed off the ema 50 but the action is very rangebound.  I think people are taking some profits from last weeks giant run and waiting for Earnings Season to begin.  

 

My one Swing Trade RTX went down 3.50ish but I’m still holding because it hasn’t crossed my exit discipline. I shorted it and more than made up the difference lost on my Swing.  After that gain I bought some more long to add to my Swing.   Yes it is a game and I know how to play it.  

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