Adam Montana Weekly 25 March 2020

[Pitcher]

 

Today’s Daily Chart S&P 500

 

1. RSI at the top had a nice uptick today

 

2. Premarket pop created a gap between Friday’s close and today’s open.  Many times that gap will be filled which means a retrace down at some point.  We may run a few days going up but I don’t like 7% up days. 

 

3. MACD started trending up.  

[Pitcher]

I hope you are correct Synopsis.  I hate this disease on so many fronts.  

[Synopsis]

4 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

I hope you are correct Synopsis.  I hate this disease on so many fronts.  

 

!!!Pitcher!!!

 

 Thank You For MANY Different ADDED VALUE Things, Pitcher, AND ALL The Very Best!!! 

 

NOT ONLY IN The United States Of America BUT Whirled Wide COVID-19 is on the right side of the bell curve AND going DOWN FAST.

 

HOW, pray tell, LONG will COVID-19 CONTINUE to be a Psychological Economic Weapon???!!!

 

I suspect the Roaring 20's will pale compared to what is ABOUT TO HAPPEN!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

I had a good friend of mine call me this morning before open of the market to tell me he wasn’t going to miss this run up and was going to buy a few of his favorite stocks for a Long Investment.  He asked me what I thought.  I told him, “why are you asking me that question, you just said you were going to buy at open”. Then I told him if he was buying at open he was a fool.  Never buy at open after a big premarket pop.  An hour after open he called to say he was doing good.  He didn’t call after the Market closed.  

 

I said in a number of my posts the market is news driven.  Last night the Japanese announced a big Relief Package for their country kind of like ours.  That’s when we got the big premarket pop in our markets.  Then the NYC CV Report was good.  Everything looked great until the last few hours. I  have no idea why we sold off so hard.  That was not a good close.  

 

The emotion of not missing out of a new uptrend is real.  My friend just had to go in.  Being patient. Is hard.  I hope he doesn’t lose a lot.  I feel very strongly that the market will not go up in an orderly fashion until the CV outbreak has peaked and the USA opens again for business.  I may be wrong but I’m not going to be wrong and lose money.  I’m very patient.  

 

[md11fr8dawg]

Good post Pitcher. It is tempting, but like you I will wait until this thing turns around. May not time the bottom perfectly, so could lose out on the beginning of the upswing, but don't need to lose money by being to aggressive at this point.

[Pitcher]

6 hours ago, md11fr8dawg said:

It is tempting, but like you I will wait until this thing turns around. May not time the bottom perfectly, so could lose out on the beginning of the upswing, but don't need to lose money by being to aggressive at this point.

 

I wrote this post earlier in the day before Dr Fauci made his positive comments about the CV.  I didn’t get to post this because my internet went out.  I missed most of the afternoon Market run up which was terrible for a Trader like me.  Even though Dr Fauci’s comments were very very encouraging I still will be patient.  I am still Day Trading and doing well.  

 

 

 

We are having a good day in the Markets, especially for an inside day on the S&P.  

 

We are racing to the 50% retrace line of the selloff from last month on the S&P.  

I’ve got my Fibonacci for that line at 2785 ish and the 50 EMA at 2800 ish. Those are going to be some strong resistance lines to get through.  We are currently sitting at 2713 at noon ET.  If the news continues to be good we will break thru those lines and the rally will continue. Will we retrace and retest the lows?  I just can’t tell yet.  The charts look like they are churning trying to figure it all out. As long as we stay above the Ema 20 we have a chance of going higher. 

 

Here are the things that give me hesitation.

 

1. Earnings for Q2 will be coming out in about a week and they will be a disaster.  It’s probably already priced in but we will be getting guidance on Q3 and the entire year with some companies.  This is something we have never been through.  Closing of the economy is some very strong medicine.

2.  Businesses are still closed

3.  The CV hasn’t peaked yet and we may have a second round in the fall

4.  Entire Sectors ( Oil, Hospitality) are in trouble.  Some small businesses will not make it.  (unemployment). 

 

These are some Good things to focus on.

 

1.  Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Presidential Race.  

2.  The CV appears to be peaking in NY

3.  The Stimulus is large and there will probably be more.

4.   Better Testing, Therapies and Vaccines will be coming to help out with the CV

 

We are in a Crisis we have never been in before.  I think each investor will have to decide for himself when it is time to go in. There will probably not be a perfect bottom and a dinner bell.  Listen to the news and if and when you go in, filter in.   This is still a very volatile Market as evidenced by yesterday’s abrupt sell off.   I have a nice buy list and I am looking for opportunities.  Today I bought RTX as a Day Trade.  I got a nice trade and was ready to leave some in as a Swing but sold it all.  I’m just not ready to go Long in a Swing or even a 3-5-10 year trade.  Good luck to you all in your investments and please do your DD.  ( due diligence).  

[Synopsis]

LOOKIN' GOOD!!!

 

 

https://www.ino.com/

 

We'll see the COVID-19 dissipate RAPIDLY as temperatures INCREASE!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

 

12 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

We'll see the COVID-19 dissipate RAPIDLY as temperatures INCREASE!!!

 

I believe so Synopsis.  We hit 86 today in Houston

[Synopsis]

33 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

I believe so Synopsis.  We hit 86 today in Houston

 

 Good Deal, Pitcher, AND ALL The Very Best!!! 

 

We'll see what the COVID-19 statistics show in the near future. Supposedly, the COVID-19 virus can not live long outside the host in environments 80 F and above.

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Floridian]

36 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

 

 Good Deal, Pitcher, AND ALL The Very Best!!! 

 

We'll see what the COVID-19 statistics show in the near future. Supposedly, the COVID-19 virus can not live long outside the host in environments 80 F and above.

 

Go Moola Nova!

 

Not sure about that.  We've got plenty of cases here in Florida, where it's above 80 F.

[Synopsis]

Just now, Floridian said:

We've got plenty of cases here in Florida, where it's above 80 F.

 

      

 

Floridian, yer supposed to keep yer cases of beer in THEE REFRIGERATOR!!!

 

Preferably JUST ABOVE FREEZING!!!

 

      

 

Seriously, though, need refrigerated refreshments with heat and humidity upon us IN SHADED FLORIDA AREAS!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Floridian]

1 minute ago, Synopsis said:

 

      

 

Floridian, yer supposed to keep yer cases of beer in THEE REFRIGERATOR!!!

 

 

 

Okay, I'll move them from the porch to the fridge.  😂

[Synopsis]

1 minute ago, Floridian said:

 

Okay, I'll move them from the porch to the fridge.  😂

 

      

 

 A Most EXCELLENT Idea, Floridian, AND ALL The Very Best!!! 

 

Go Moola Nova!