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Adam Montana Weekly 25 March 2020


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18 hours ago, Pitcher said:

I’m not going to post everyday like I have been.  As I stated my main purpose was to hopefully keep some of you from losing 20-40% of your retirement accounts.  Some of us don’t have years to recoup those losses.  In the future I will probably give you my thoughts once or twice a week

 

Whatever works for you is good by me, bud! I appreciate your efforts and commentary.

 

:tiphat: 

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14 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Brent barrel down by 6%

 

Goldman: The Oil Industry Will Never Be The Same After Coronavirus

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 30, 2020, 12:00 PM CDT

The unprecedented oil demand plunge in the COVID-19 pandemic is poised to change the oil sector forever, as fewer companies holding high-quality assets emerge after the downturn, Goldman Sachs said on Monday.

 

Despite another round of ‘leaner and meaner’ industry consolidation after the one from the previous price downturn in 2015-2016, the firms that make it through this price crash will still see capital expenditure constrained, the Wall Street bank warned.  

 

“Big Oils will consolidate the best assets in the industry and will shed the worst ... when the industry emerges from this downturn, there will be fewer companies of higher asset quality, but the capital constraints will remain,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note on Monday, as carried by Reuters.

 

According to the investment bank, the Saudi-Russian oil price war has been rendered irrelevant in the face of enormous demand destruction as major economies remain in lockdown, and demand for gasoline and jet fuel continues to tumble.

 

“The oil price war is made irrelevant by the large decline in demand and has made a coordinated supply response impossible to achieve in time,” Goldman Sachs said.

 

The bank said last week that global oil demand could plummet by 18.7 million bpd in April, which could deepen an expected demand plunge of 10.5 million bpd for March while the coronavirus pandemic continues to claim thousands of lives and keep major economies in lockdown.  

 

This week, Goldman sees the world’s oil consumption down by 26 million bpd, or down 25 percent compared to the typical global demand, as lockdowns and social-distancing and travel advisories now affect 92 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), Bloomberg quoted Goldman Sachs as saying.

 

According to the investment bank, global oil demand from the airline sector and commuters may never return to the pre-coronavirus demand levels of around 16 million bpd.

 

But the current drop in demand, refinery run cuts, and well-head shut-ins could result in an oil shortage in the next few years, Goldman Sachs said.

 

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Is Oil Heading To $10?

By Ag Metal Miner - Mar 30, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT

Popular investor inclination may be that after such a dramatic fall, the oil price has to bounce back, that investor sentiment on the downside was an overreaction. That inclination might also say after a chance for reflection has been allowed, prices will recover.

But the reality is all we can reliably expect is a period of intense volatility.

A price recovery will only come if the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia comes to an end.

Both sides have substantial financial reserves. Russia, in particular, is benefitting from a collapse in the ruble against the dollar, making its oil receipts not much different from before hostilities broke out.

Russia can weather this storm for some time to come and seems ill-disposed to reach an agreement for substantial cutbacks any time soon.

Saudi Arabia’s policy, on the other hand, seems to be set largely by the young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (or MBS, as his name is sometimes abbreviated by the media).

The crown prince has shown he is willing for Saudi Arabia to make considerable sacrifices if he believes he is in the right — witness the ruinous ongoing war in Yemen the kingdom has been waging for nearly five years (and realistically achieved little in the process).

Earlier this month, the U.S. appointed an energy envoy to Saudi Arabia, raising hopes that the U.S. might broker a truce between the Kingdom and Russia.

But so far, no progress has been made.

An announcement by the U.S. that it would add 77 million barrels to its strategic reserve to support prices will do little now that the coronavirus is decimating demand.

As The Economist notes, the vast salt caverns along America’s Gulf Coast that contain the strategic reserve are already about 90 percent full, so they cannot store enough excess supply even if that were a viable option to impact prices. Not only are national strategic and producer reserves rapidly filling up, but so are consumers. Oilprice.com reports refiners in Baton Rougecould begin to slow deliveries as their own storage facilities max out, further depressing prices.

Related: Oil Hits $20 For The First Time In 18 Years
The article quotes Bernstein, a research firm, which estimates demand in the first half of the year will be maybe 10 percent, or even 20 percent, below what it was in 2019.

In the past 35 years, demand has only twice been lower than in the preceding year — in 2008 and 2009.

Yet shale oil continues to flow, adding to OPEC+ excess supply.

Many shale drillers are hedged for now and the outlook for output cuts in the short term is limited. Added to this is a potential 1 million barrels a day of output that some analysts fear could come back onto the market from Libya gradually this year.

Oilprice.com reports global oil demand could plummet by 18.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, deepening an expected demand plunge of 10.5 million bpd for March, citing Goldman Sachs advice, overwhelming any possible cutbacks Saudi Arabia and Russia could now make.

Talk of sub-$20 per barrel oil that seemed excessively pessimistic just a week or so back is now a reality. CBC reported Friday that Western Canadian Select (WCS) was selling for $6.45 U.S. a barrel Thursday, down U.S. $2.84 from a day earlier.

Related: Refiners Are Having To Pay To Produce Gasoline

As a result, it opened the very real possibility that producers, at least in the short term, may have to pay companies to take oil — effectively creating negative oil prices.

 

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Source: Standard Chartered Research

Such chaos will decimate investment and idle exploration, opening up the probability that prices could surge in the years ahead as the industry is unable to meet a return in demand.

For now, though, producers and consumers are going to face a volatile pricing environment, with prices driven as much by sentiment as the appalling underlying fundamentals.

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Oil Markets Are On The Brink Of Armageddon

 - Mar 30, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT

 

“Two boys are in a closed garage with several inches of gasoline on the floor. One has six large matches, the other has seven smaller ones. They debate as to who is strategically superior”.  J.K. Galbraith

The world’s oil markets are at a crisis point arguably not seen in its history. 

Since the last meeting of OPEC/OPEC+ concluded, global oil prices have collapsed to close Friday at 53.14% down for WTI and 51.14% down for Brent. These prices are the lowest seen in almost twenty years. Oil prices have tumbled as the fallout of that meeting compounded the unprecedented hit to consumption from the coronavirus pandemic.

As we remember all too well, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters leaving the meetings in Vienna that without reaching an agreement on production, members could now pump what they liked starting April 1st. Taking this as a declaration of war, Saudi Arabia has since raised the stakes with its plan to flood the global oil market with increased oil volumes.

With global oil demand curtailed by an estimated twenty million barrels per day due to the coronavirus led shutdown in the world’s economy, the oil war would turn an already dire economic outlook for global energy demand into a catastrophe that could change the energy landscape forever. An increasing number of producers are now losing money on production, wells are being shut-in and in certain areas (e.g. Canada) the oil industry may never recover – a generational destruction of personal livelihoods and the end of a reliable source of national wealth and revenue.

Yes, the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus has severely affected the global oil markets but, the actions of the participants in reaction to this crisis have shown an industry in the grips of a mass suicide.

The question has to be asked, in starting an oil war during a global pandemic that has already seen demand fall by twenty million barrels per day in a matter of weeks, have we all forgotten about the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction? 

Related: How COVID-19 Could Spark The Next Recession
In 1962, the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction started to play a major part in the defence policy of the United States. President Kennedy’s Secretary of Defence, Robert McNamara, set out in a speech to the American Bar Foundation in Chicago, Illinois, the beginnings of the US policy on nuclear deterrence, that would remain US policy throughout the Cold War.

Thus, the true philosophy of nuclear deterrence became to be established. If the other side knew that by initiating a nuclear strike it would lead to a response that would be so massive that they would inevitably suffer ‘assured destruction’, they would be irrational to press the button.

In the past, wars had been fought by defeating your opponent on the battlefield by superior use of force. But MAD was a radical departure that trumped the conventional view of war. As governments around the world have worked to quickly commit trillions upon trillions of dollars to shore up the global economy, efforts have been short-lived as more and more of the global economy succumbs to the coronavirus led shutdown. 

Yet, in what can only be described as a strict adherence to the theory behind MAD, Russia, Saudi Arabia and others have given no signal that they are slowing down in their attempts to flood the world with oil and grab market share at the expense of each other. Saudi Arabia has also turned OPEC into a ‘you’re on your own now’ proposition. While Saudi Arabia, with arguably the lowest cost of production and deepest pockets in OPEC, will offset some of the collapse in oil prices with the boost in volumes, almost all of its fellow OPEC members are much less fortunate. 

 

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It is clear, that with the enormity of the current (and projected) overhang in global oil supply, only a globally co-ordinated attempt that includes all major producers, would help address this attempt at energy market MAD. 

It is also clear that any co-ordinated attempt would have to include the United States.

Whilst Trump believes that lower oil prices is a positive message for domestic US voters, members of the US Administration have started to appreciate the dangers posed to the US energy industry and the theory of ‘energy independence’. Only last week the US began the public pressuring of Saudi Arabia. The State Department reported on Wednesday that Secretary of State Pompeo in a call with Mohammed Bin Salman “stressed that as a leader of the G20 and an important energy leader, Saudi Arabia has a real opportunity to rise to the occasion and reassure global energy and financial markets when the world faces uncertainty”.

As often the case since 2017, the US is looking for others to do the ‘heavy lifting’ when it comes to the supporting of the global energy market. OPEC and OPEC+ have legitimate gripes that their support of the global oil price through production cuts has directly led to continuance the US shale industry’s exponential production growth.

US shale production has grown to such an extent that it has helped the US eclipse both Russia and Saudi Arabia in becoming the world’s largest oil producer. This has been trumpeted by the US President as the US achieving energy independence. 

To the often-made complaints by OPEC and OPEC+, the US has always cited ‘free market’ forces. How ironic now that there are calls by domestic US shale producers for tariffs, duties and even limits on foreign oil to provide an ‘artificial’ oil price floor.

Related: Russia’s Plan To Bankrupt U.S. Shale Could Send Oil To $60

Saudi Arabia’s position is that only a collective effort by all producing nations to put in place significant output cuts, rather than unilateral cuts by Saudi Arabia, can address the oil price destruction. 

No doubt there have been many ‘behind-the-scenes’ discussions between all major oil market participants to address the obvious problems. But, to this date all calls have gone unheeded and all participants seem to be hell bent on the path to energy market Armageddon. 

Eight months after Robert McNamara’s speech, the Cuban Missile Crisis was in full swing. Thankfully, after a number of crisis flashpoints, we know that the participants reached a solution that backed away from the mutually assured destruction that seemed destined at the time.

As we approach the 1st of April, we are at an energy market crisis point, where oil producers are free to produce and sell as much oil as they like. Saudi Arabia has talked of offering 12.3 million barrels per day to the market. We do know that Saudi Aramco has never before produced those amounts of oil (even at full production) thus implying that it will draw down crude stored at home and in tanks in Japan, the Netherlands and on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. If true, it will signal to the market its strength of commitment to the destruction of the theory of oil market balance.

Even then it may be that no matter what the price, there isn’t enough of a market (or storage capacity) to absorb all the barrels purportedly on offer. Refineries have started to close, even in the US and analysts at Rystad Energy estimate that the world is likely to run out of storage at current production rates by April, estimating that 76% of the world’s storage is already full. In some regions, like Western Canada, where Western Canada Select is trading sub-$5 storage could be full by the end of this month – that is tomorrow. IHS Markit forecasts that by the end of June 2020, surplus oil will have already reached 1.8 billion barrels, exceeding their estimate of current available storage of just 1.6 billion barrels. 

In seemingly echoing the course of events of October 1962, when the world seemed on the inescapable path to nuclear Armageddon, it seems that all participants are staring into the abyss ready to jump and the global oil market is spinning out of control.

But, looking back to the lessons learned from October 1962, there is a small window of opportunity for the ‘combatants’ to come together in a co-ordinated effort to share the responsibility of reassuring the global market and pull back from the brink of energy market Armageddon. 

If this does not happen the world will be entitled to exclaim “the global energy markets really have gone MAD”.

 

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The problem with the CV is the fact that it has shut down the world economy.  Couple that loss of oil demand with the SA/Russia Oil War, and you have 2 major problems for the US Oil Producers.  From some friends I have talked to about this they think half of the US Shale Producers will be forced into bankruptcy or be bought out for pennies on the dollar.  Many in the Houston area believe it is almost an act of war on a vital industry for our country.  My daughter who owns a Real Estate firm has had many requests to sell homes that she had sold to these clients in the last 2-3 years.  You can get a hell of a nice house in Houston these days for a great price.  

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Here is some Breaking News,  This just came across the wires.

 

 

Relief On The Horizon? Trump And Putin Discuss Oil Markets

By Julianne Geiger - Mar 30, 2020, 7:30 PM CDT

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Monday to have energy officials from both countries discuss the dire state of the global oil market, the Kremlin said, according to Reuters.

Trump and Putin discussed the matter over the phone on Monday.

“Opinions on the current state of the global oil markets were exchanged. It was agreed there would be Russo-American consultations about this through the ministers of energy,” the Kremlin said.

Neither President detailed what specific issues or possibilities they would discuss.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have undertaken a furious battle over market share, with both threatening to ramp up production come April 1, when the current OPEC+ deal will expire. U.S. oil producers now find themselves stuck in the middle of this oil price war, and then COVID-19 kicked U.S. producers—and the rest of the world—in the head by pushing down demand for crude.

The result has elicited a somewhat atypical response from the United States oil industry and government officials, who favor free markets and never miss a beat to chastise OPEC for its price-meddling ways. But desperation is sinking in, with oil industry professionals and U.S. lawmakers calling on the Trump administration to do something about the current oil price war that OPEC and Russia have created.

While the U.S. is planning on sitting down with Russia to discuss the matter, it is also applying pressure to Saudi Arabia to rectify the mess it has helped to create. It would take—at a minimum—both Saudi Arabia and Russia to effect any real change. Even if all of OPEC were to get on board with further production cuts, it is doubtful at this point that even aggressive action will have enough oomph to trim the oil glut and boost prices at a time when the coronavirus continues to shrink demand.

If the United States somehow managed to jump on board the price-fixing cartel, however, it might be enough to move the needle.

 

 

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Today is the end of the first quarter and the big boys are rebalancing their portfolios and I was there to take advantage of their buys. When those big Funds buy they go in big and it’s hard to hide.  I played Msft for a Day Trade and left some shares as a Swing. Other stocks I’m seeing getting a bid are BA, DIS, CVX, XOM, SWKS, DG, FB, PXD, URI, ABBV, EXPE, QRVO, ROKU, DOCU, EA, PYPL BMY, and some beaten up stocks like RCL, MAR, and LUV.  There are many many more. Those are some of the leaders on my scans.  With rebalancing you get a peak at what the Big Boys like and think are at decent enough risk levels to buy.  They are thinking longer term, 3-5 years.  Watch some of these and hope for a retest of the Lows on the S&P 500.  That is what I’m counting on.  That list is a pretty good cross section of the overall Market with a number of sectors represented.

 

 Please do not rush out and buy these now.  Sit on them and wait for a pullback or a retest of the lows. 

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C70CB5EB-3086-41A2-9CF6-E796F524C062.thumb.jpeg.9772625d1f453b283724725c92436193.jpeg

 

 

I said I wouldn’t do this everyday but I wanted to show you my Daily chart of the S&P-500 and give you some thoughts. The last six days of Market action have been very good and even rational.  With all the bad unemployment news, the economy shut down, and the unspeakable infection and death rates from the Coronavirus, I have to say all is not horrible.  To understand Market Action you have to understand that the Market does not care about the Past.  It is Forward Looking and the people who trade it for the most part are very rational people. (Unfortunately some of the people they represent are not so rational). 

 

When I look at the last six days I see that the absolute sheer panic has been replaced with, ok stuff just happened,  how do we trade it.  Do we see  the light at the end of the tunnel with this Pandemic, is our Government going to help us get through this mess, and are the Healthcare Professionals and Drug Companies going to come up with quick reliable testing, better Therapies, and Vaccines to solve this horrible crisis.  Most of the people who needed to sell are out, the portfolios have been rebalanced and now we are at a place on the chart where we can go either way.  The action the last three days is basically telling me the Market needs more Data (news).   

 

We we are basically parked just below the ema 20.  If we break above the ema 20 then the rally continues for a few more days. We are also sitting on the 38.2 Fibonacci line.  The Ema 20 and Fib 38.2 are huge resistance points. If we don’t break through and instead break below the Ema 8 ( Purple)nd Hull 15  ( light bllue line) then we will probably be heading down to retest the lows.  ( I circled the area of the current Price and also the corresponding number of resistance which is 2650ish on the S&P 500)

 

I also circled my Indicators which look to be running out of steam for this rally but it could go higher on good news or plain old momo.

 

1.  Starting at the top Indicator ( it is an Indicator I put together with a trading friend).  you should be able to see it has gone from a bigger green bar to a half green bar to a zero bar.  That tells me it can go either way but not a time to go into a Long Investment or a Swing.

 

2.   The second  from the top Indicator is the Williams Accumulation/Distribution Indicator.  It’s above the Red line but not over the Teal line and trending slightly down on today’s action.  I don’t get too excited until it gets over the light green line. 

 

3.  The last Indicator is the Stocastic overlayed on a MACD Histogram.  Yes some of my Indicators are unusual but they work for me.  This one is kind of topped out but that doesn’t mean to much as the Williams can burst up through that 50 line ( light green) and then its game on.  The Stochs are telling me to watch the top 2 Indicators and my interpretation with the chart is we are ready to burst up through the Ema20 and Fib 38.2 or reject those lines and head south.  We are waiting for Data or some Big Boys to lead the way 

 

I personally believe we will retest the lows but I’ve heard from some Fund managers who believe the bottom is in.  As I’ve said a number of times, I’m going to be patient for a Long Term buy but I will Swing and Day Trade this Market as I see fit.   Today’s close was disappointing but again the market isn’t ready to push higher yet.  We might be in for some sideways trading, some consolidation, or a narrow trading range while we wait for more Data.  This is all normal activity and I have to say the markets are trading in a controlled manner which is GREAT!!!  Especially, when you consider we just finished the worst Quarter in Market History and had the quickest Decline in History.  The Market with a huge assist by the Fed and our Government is still working and functioning well from what I can see.  We will have more bad news and maybe retest but that will be a good thing for a new sustained uptrend.  It is a process and we will get through it.   The culprit is still the CV, the duration of this Pandemic, and what it does to our economy past Q2.  The Fed and US Government solved the Financial part of this problem but the Medical aspect still weighs heavy on future Market direction. 

 

 

 

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Brutal action today.  Premarket sell off on Trump saying 100-200k people would die.  

The Price of the S&P 500 rejected the 20 ema and broke down through 2 support lines, the 8ema and the Hull15.  I’ve made zero trades.  Not seeing anything that I want to trade yet.  I’m hoping for a mid morning rally. We’ll see.  

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When I read that 4000 plus Americans have died from CV and they are still going up the mountain I just wonder why I’m even talking about stocks. The Market is selling off again and I’m just not in the mood.  President Trump said the next 2 weeks would be very tough.  I need to turn off the TV and the Computer and pray for humanity.   

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2 hours ago, Pitcher said:

When I read that 4000 plus Americans have died from CV and they are still going up the mountain

My Friend, ask yourself a simple question, where are all the media videos of the disposal of so many bodies?

I don't doubt that people are dying from this flu, but people die every year from the flu. One thing I know without a smidgen of doubt is that the Lame Stream Media would be blasting us with non stop pictures of the dead if there were that many. But we've not seen even one. 

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the media has shown a few refrigerated box trailers parked beside the hospitals that are said to be used as morgues but that's all I've seen. I do believe the numbers are very inflated but time will tell. I only hope the country and for that matter the world can recover economically.

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2 hours ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

My Friend, ask yourself a simple question, where are all the media videos of the disposal of so many bodies?

I don't doubt that people are dying from this flu, but people die every year from the flu. One thing I know without a smidgen of doubt is that the Lame Stream Media would be blasting us with non stop pictures of the

 

Thanks LGD.  You have to be on guard 24/7 with the lying Media.

 

There is no doubt that the Media plan to use the CV in this Coming Election.  Take a look at the Boston Globe in the Politics Section.  The Dems want to form a Commission to Study the Pandemic Response.   That’s code for, “ Let’s get Trump Part 186”. Of course it is being instigated by Schiff.   CNN and MSNBC ran with the story.  It’s more divisive crap from our Dems.  

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On 3/27/2020 at 6:30 PM, DinarThug said:

 

Lol ! That’s Awesome Map1 - Ur Brother Morgan Is Obviously An Incredibly Talented World Class Artist ! ;) 

 

olden-days.jpg

 

Btw - Do U Think That He Can Help Me With My Makeup ...

 

:D  :D  :D 

I’d ask him but he’s busy working on his one man show for a gallery in Wyoming in September 

Hope the pandemic is over by then 🤞😊

 

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17 hours ago, NAKS said:


 

 

Think about this the next time you pay your cable bill. That's how the Lame Stream Media get their 

money to create such lies and panic.

 

I posted a lot of these vids here directly from You Tube. But the format that you bring is much better and well worth the watch. What makes me so mad is that no one will be held accountable. Unless we 

have a real revolution these demonic lying scum in the media not only are going to get away with this but they will continue to do it again. 

Personally, I don't waste my valuable time with anything that comes from MSM, EVERYTHING they 

spew is lies. 

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Trump Tweet Sends Oil Soaring 25%

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 02, 2020, 10:30 AM CDT

Oil prices spiked on Thursday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince, and hoped and expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia would “cut back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more,” sending oil prices soaring by 20%.

“Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!” President Trump tweeted on Thursday.

Oil prices soared immediately after the tweet, with WTI Crude soaring 25.90% at $25.51 as of 11:04 a.m. EDTand Brent Crude surging

20.57% at $29.83.

According to the Saudi’s official news agency, SPA, Saudi Arabia is calling for an urgent meeting for OPEC+ states “and another group of countries”.

Making no mention of specific numbers.

The press agency later went on to make mention of the relationship with the United States.

Earlier today, prices were already gaining more than 8% after the market began to tentatively hope that former allies Russia and Saudi Arabia could re-launch talks on propping up oil prices, which are too low for both of those economies, regardless of their claims of ‘resilience’ even at these prices. Related: $1 Oil: Saudi Arabia's Attempt To Crush U.S. Shale

After weeks of ‘no-backing-down’ in the oil price war, the former allies Saudi Arabia and Russia have started hinting at readiness to re-launch cooperation to save oil prices from sliding further amid the massive demand loss in the coronavirus pandemic.

“Saudi Arabia has always welcomed and supported cooperation among oil producers in their efforts to stabilize the oil market during the current crisis, based on the principles of fairness and equity,” a Gulf source familiar with Saudi Arabia’s thinking told Reuters on Thursday, but said that the OPEC+ break-up was Russia’s fault.

Russia, for its part, has decided it’s economically unfeasible for its producers to boost oil production right now, so Moscow called off an earlier promise to also increase supply, albeit at a much lower rate than Saudi Arabia.

With U.S. shale producers suffering the first immediate blow from the Saudi-Russian oil price war, U.S. President Trump discussed the situation on the oil market with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin earlier this week, and said he held a separate phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

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Sunday April 5, 2020

 

I’ve been reading and looking at charts a good part of the day and I’m going to give you my thoughts on the Stock Market.  We had a little selloff on Wednesday but we held the support line Thurs and Friday.  Last week was a tough week for traders who thought the bottom was in and that we would go higher.  Monday was a good rally but Tuesday and Wednesday were very humbling.   Thursday we got the spike in oil on President Trump’s tweet but there is a lot of work to do to get that oil situation back on track.  Last Friday President Trump warned the next few weeks would be tough weeks in the battle with the CV Crisis.  

 

Last week was a very tough week indeed but the Markets handled the Infection Rates and Deaths without panic.  Even with the very horrible weekly unemployment news the Market did not sell off in the manner I thought.  The trading was calm, rational, and orderly ( at least from my perspective). I saw a lot of algo machine trades which makes for tough Day Trading Conditions for me.  According to what I have read, the CDC is claiming the CV curve should hit its peak in the next 11 days.  

 

Going forward this this week I would like to see a few things 

 

1.  I am hoping for some good news on New Therapies, Drugs, or Vaccines.  We need a glimmer of hope that are Healthcare Professionals can get a leg up on this horrible disease.

 

2.  The VIX has come way off it’s highs of 2 weeks ago but Volatility remains high as we are not even halfway through this Pandemic according to Dr. Fauci. 

 

3. I would love to see us bounce up in another rally this week starting tomorrow since we held support around 2450 on the S&P.  I would love to see us break through the 20 ema and start a nice retrace back to respectability from the selloff last month.  

 

4.  It’s truly amazing ( or rigged) how the Markets always gets back to a somewhat neutral state on Friday’s.  Looking at that S&P chart I could make a case for up or down action starting tomorrow.  If you cornered me I would say we may get another rally.  You should know my position by now.  I’m a Day Trader until the Price gets over the EMA 20.  At that time I will look to possibly make a few Swing Trades.  I will not go Long Investment buys until the CV is under control.  This market is still very news driven.   

 

Below are 2 charts of the S&P 500. The first one is a Daily chart.  I circled the pertinent information.  

 

1. RSI at the top went flat last week showing the sideways movement the last 3 days. This is a good thing.  This Market needs time to catch its breath and consolidate.

 

2.  The 50EMA is clearly below the 200EMA and doesn’t look to be swinging up yet.  We are in a Bear Market.  It will take time for the 50EMA to get back above the 200 EMA.  Months imo!!

 

3.  I circled the last 3 days action. It’s a good sign that we held Wednesday’s low.

 

4. MACD flattened the last few days much like the RSI.  The Market took a little break.  

 

 

1D9219DE-3CF1-4DC6-885B-5843D00D97B7.thumb.jpeg.499ac2b504e65250b252e5eac3560cd5.jpeg

 

 

I’m showing the weekly chart only to emphasize the fact if the news gets ugly in the coming week and people panic sell we could break all current support levels and head to the June 2016 lows.  Bet your last dollar there are people with an agenda that want to see that.  They will be peddling fear, and doom and gloom to attain their goal of getting people to sell the 401k’s.  I still haven’t seen total capitulation and think we will eventually hit that June 2016 low around 1700-1800.  I hope not but there are so many variables with this CV.   THE ECONOMY IS MOSYLT CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.  If the CV duration lasts past June the the year will be in a serious situation.  Let’s take it one day at a time and pray for the people who are ill and the families who have lost loved ones.  I am also praying for our Brave healthcare workers and people working on vaccines and Therapies/Drugs.  

 

39E80B16-E11C-4F38-B550-7E591DBDAA62.thumb.jpeg.23b6b691dbe227ac0d7dbaf9b42fe6d1.jpeg

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Yesterday I said I was looking for a rally and we were hoping for some good news on the CV.  Wow, we got a premarket pop and some good news from New York on the CV front.  Today was a great day for traders who exploited the Market Conditions.  I was looking for a run over the 20 ema and we did that on the Daily chart.  

 

The big big question is, will it hold today’s gains and continue up?  I do not know but I will say this, when we go up over 7% in one day many times the next day is a retrace back down.  I did not put on any Swing trades today.  I saw the conditions looking favorable Friday afternoon and I had a buy in on MSFT but 20 minutes before close I took it off.  I just didn’t want to hold through the weekend.  No guts no glory right.  The truth is I don’t need to gamble and I don’t like to gamble. I had a nice day Trading BA, and Ulta.  The best scenario for me would be a premarket sell off back to the 20 ema followed by another nice rally.  Not sure that will happen but if it does and the news is good ( possible oil deal with OPEC) I may put a Swing Trade on CVX and a few Tech stocks.  I also like large caps PEP, JNJ, WMT and Cost.  

 

I’m taking this deal one one day at a time. One up day does not make a trend but it was a nice run today.  We are still in a Bear Market and the 50 Ema is still below the 200 ema.  You will have other opportunities to get your Long Term Investment and Swing Trades.  Be patient and wait for MORE good news.  If you just need to get into the market for fear of missing out, filter in!!

 

 

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WOWZERS!!!

 

A nominal seven (7)% uptick TODAY!!!

 

image.png.2656b8049d7a88bb5c7be266991c76e3.png

 

AND a nominal 30% uptick in Dude Oil Futures over the nominally recent historic low!!!

 

https://www.ino.com/

 

DOWN, DOWN, DOWN COVID-19'S GOIN' DOWN......................................................

 

DOWN, DOWN, DOWN COVID-19'S GOIN' DOWN......................................................

 

DOWN, DOWN, DOWN COVID-19'S GOIN' DOWN......................................................

 

Cases in U.S.

Other Languages

Updated April 6, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†
  • Total cases: 330,891
  • Total deaths: 8,910
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.

 

image.png.8651a0a78dd1061c8409f77cd8db0a83.png

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

Do NOT get the flu. The flu is FAR MORE Deadly THAN COVID-19. Unless, of course, one has THEE INCURABLE COVID-19 Hysteria Pandemic Disease!!!

 

WHAT, pray tell, will THEE Markets be like come April 30, 2020 WHEN the COVID-19 restrictions are FULLY lifted???!!!

 

YYYEEEAAAHHH BBBAAABBBYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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