Adam Montana Weekly 25 March 2020

[DinarThug]

13 hours ago, RodandStaff said:

Thugs is workin’ as hard as our President posting valuable news @2:30am....bless you my brother! 😉

CNN ! News Happens 24 Hours - That’s Why We’re Up At The Crack Of Noon !  

 

 

     

[NAKS]

3 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Breaking news, JP Morgan Chase Senior Officers bought a significant amount of stock as a signal of faith in the company.  It was also announced that many other major Company’s officials are buying their stock as well.  ( not stock buybacks, own monies). Interesting.  

 

Link please! This is interesting 

[Pitcher]

Just now, NAKS said:

Link please! This is interesting 

 

There is no link. I heard it on CNBC news.  About an hour later they came back and amended the story to say it was a planned buy.  This is why I rarely post Breaking News stories.

 

Thank you for calling me on this error.  I meant to put a post saying the breaking news was bogus, I go sidetracked and just forgot.  It is still important to hear they are buying there own stock.  I apologize for not posting the correct story sooner.  

[DinarThug]

18 hours ago, DinarThug said:

G20 leaders: pumping $ 5 trillion into the global economy to tackle Corona


King Salman at the presidency of the extraordinary virtual summit of the Group of Twenty

March 26, 2020 5:52 PM

 

RIYADH - Mubasher: The leaders of the Group of Twenty agreed, in an exceptional meeting by virtual means, on Thursday, headed by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz, to pump $ 5 trillion into the global economy, as part of financial policies, economic measures and targeted security plans to counter the social, economic and financial impacts of a pandemic Sk.

In a closing statement, the leaders emphasized commitment to protecting lives, preserving individual jobs and incomes, restoring confidence, maintaining financial stability, reviving growth and supporting a strong pace of recovery, and reducing disturbances to trade and global supply chains.

The leaders said: "We are currently taking strong and immediate measures to support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support our economies, protect workers and companies, in particular the micro, small and medium enterprises - and the sectors most affected, in addition to protecting vulnerable groups by providing appropriate social protection."

The leaders affirmed a commitment to provide assistance to all countries in need of support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support, to coordinate actions related to public health and financial measures, as well as a commitment to maintain the protection of lives, jobs and income, and a commitment to restore confidence in the global economy and achieve growth .

They said that the scale and scope of this response will restore the global economy to its threshold, while laying strong foundations for job protection and recovery.

The leaders asked the finance ministers and central bankers to coordinate with them periodically to develop an action plan to respond to the Corona virus (Covid-19), in addition to working closely with international organizations to provide appropriate international financial assistance and urgently.

They stressed the support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support for the exceptional measures taken by the central banks in line with their tasks. As these banks worked to support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support the flow of credit to families and companies, enhance financial stability, and raise the level of liquidity in global markets. We also welcome the extension of the currency swap arrangements made by our central banks.

The leaders supported the regulatory and supervisory measures taken to ensure the financial system continues to support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support the economy, and we welcome the coordination announced by the Financial Stability Board regarding these measures.

They welcomed the steps taken by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group to support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">supportcountries in need of assistance by using all tools to the maximum extent as part of a coordinated global response, and asked them to inform the Group of 20 periodically about the effects of this pandemic, and their response and recommendations to them.

The leaders said: "Addressing the health, economic and social impacts of the Corona pandemic is a priority for us ."

They emphasized taking the necessary measures to reduce the economic losses from the pandemic, calling on international organizations to clarify the impact of the pandemic on jobs.

They affirmed the continuation of providing broad and bold financial support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support, stressing that the collective measures of the Group of Twenty will work to amplify the impact of this support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support, and ensure its coherence, and benefit from the synergies between them.

“We task our senior officials to coordinate closely to support system' target='_blank' style=" rel="">support system" rel="">support global efforts to counter the effects of the pandemic, including taking appropriate measures to manage borders in accordance with national regulations, and to provide assistance when needed to return citizens to their countries,” the leaders said.

They expressed deep concern about the grave risks facing all countries, especially developing and least developed countries, particularly in Africa and small island states, whose health systems and economies may be less able to adapt to this challenge, as well as about the risks faced by refugees and displaced persons. 

LINK

 

7 hours ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

Oh yeah 

Everyone is dying to spend their RV/RI money 

 

And I Think That This Statement From The Article Might Be The Mechanism By Which Something Could Occur - As Adam Alluded To In The Last Two Paragraphs Of His Update !  

 

 

We also welcome the extension of the currency swap arrangements made by our central banks. 

 

 

And Not To Put Adam On The Spot (As I Call Attention To Him) - But I Wonder What He Thinks Of It ...
 

     

[DinarThug]

1 hour ago, map1 said:

Dinar Thug - that’s my brother, Morgan Weistling’s painting. He saw this - thought it was funny ——-

 

Lol ! That’s Awesome Map1 - Ur Brother Morgan Is Obviously An Incredibly Talented World Class Artist !  

 

 

Btw - Do U Think That He Can Help Me With My Makeup ...

 

     

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by DinarThug

[Pitcher]

13 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

Btw - Do U Think That He Can Help Me With My Makeup ...

 

 

Um, Thugs you better get a reference on the makeup artist. Otherwise you might get something like this.  

 

[DinarThug]

17 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Um, Thugs you better get a reference on the makeup artist. Otherwise you might get something like this.  

Ya, Wtf ? Her Lips Look Ok - But Her Face Is Butt Naked !  

 

 

     

[Pitcher]

43 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

But Her Face Is Butt Naked !

 

That’s because that is Tiny Tim’s love child.  😂 😝 

[DinarThug]

15 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

That’s because that is Tiny Tim’s love child.  😂 😝 

Ms ‘Lip Sticky’ - And She’s Obviously Completely Obsessed With Her ‘Two Lips’ !  

 

 

     

[eastcreek]

16 hours ago, Pitcher said:

 

I scan my ME news outlets but it’s slow these days. Thugs has it covered so there is no sense duplicating his hard work. It’s an interesting time.  Be safe Chuck, we just got locked down in my county north of Houston.  Weird deal to be in jail in my own home.  

Pitcher, thank you for your Market perspective. You bring a nice breath of fresh air. Always stay truthful to us, even when it might be hurtful 

 OK ?

[Pitcher]

1 hour ago, eastcreek said:

fresh air. Always stay truthful to us, even when it might be hurtful 

 OK ?

 

Thank you eastcreek, I call it like I see it.  Trading in these market conditions is extremely difficult because of the uncertainty of the CV.  Everyone who trades or has an 401k and has cash knows we are sitting on a great opportunity for a Long Term entry.  Every investor will have to determine his risk level for entering.   I don’t mind giving my opinions but just know I am no guru and always do your own Due Diligence.  

[Adam Montana]

On 3/26/2020 at 10:30 AM, Pitcher said:

The Stimulus Bill got passed 96-0,

 

Sorry, that posted too soon. I meant to add a similar scenario I outlined in my Auction and Budget post:

 

On 3/13/2020 at 5:31 AM, Adam Montana said:

Imagine a late night Parliament meeting - called at the last minute after 8PM one night, emergency, mandatory! One item on the agenda - doors are locked, cell phones left outside - the ONE ITEM is this: We are going to raise the rate at midnight provided everyone signs this Budget Amendment.

 

 

Same type of thing  

[Adam Montana]

23 hours ago, NAKS said:

Am I the only one wondering and concerned Whether or not they’re going to take our paper bills even if they did RV? People are turning away dollar bills for fear of the virus throughout the United States in various locations and increasing. What are we supposed to do when or if it ever comes time that we can cash in? ? 

 

There is a smallllllll small tiny chance. A sharknado could happen as well.

 

 

[DinarThug]

10 hours ago, Adam Montana said:

There is a smallllllll small tiny chance. A sharknado could happen as well.

Yo Snap - A Sharknado !  

 

 

Is That As Highly ‘Transferable’ As The Corona Golden ‘Stones’ Virus !  
 

 

     

[Pitcher]

When I started talking about the stock market some weeks ago I was mostly interested in alerting anyone who would listen that I felt the Market was due a correction.  I have tried to give things to look for hopefully without scaring you to death.  I gave you my honest opinion in a hope to save you some money.  These corrections can take on a life of their own and if anyone says this is exactly where we are headed or this is the exact bottom I will proclaim that person is a fool.  No one knows because there are to many uncertainties with this CV Crisis.

 

This Correction has turned into a nasty Bear and in my 40 plus years of watching and trading the Markets it has been the worst thing I can ever remember.  The last 3 days I have made a point to call many friends of mine who are traders and just wise people who know how to invest.  Some of the words I kept hearing from them were, unprecedented, never seen this before, so quick a selloff, ferocious volatility, uncertainty, how long will the CV last, and A GREAT OPPORTUNITY AWAITS US!!!   I also heard words like, be patient, filter in, buy best in breed stocks and be diversified.  

 

So, what next?  Great question.  I will try to give you my 2 cents of how I feel about our current state in this Market.  We are in a Bear Market and those usually take time to work out all the excesses of the last Bull run.  They usually run 90 days to 18 months.  The problem with trying to figure out where this all will end is the uncertainty caused by the CV, the duration, and the destruction of earnings due to businesses being ordered to close.  Real damage has been done to this economy and the longer it goes on the more damage it will reek.  In the 2000 Dot Com bursting Bear Market it took 2 years to find a bottom and start a new up trend.  In that time we had 6 bear flag rallies of 20%.  I remember trying to trade those rallies thinking that was the bottom and subsequently getting slapped around and losing a lot of money.  If you do try to trade these bear rallies just know there will be a risk in doing so.  I will not consider going long until the CV news gets better.  Presently we are shooting into the dark at a moving target that is data dependent and that data seems to change by the minute.  

 

When I started writing these posts I said to watch the moving averages in relation to the price on the S&P 500.  I told you to watch for the price to cross the 50, 100 and 200 ema’s.  I also told you to watch the 50 ema to see if it crossed the 100 ema and the 200 ema which is called the death cross.  I also gave you support lines on the S&P 500 to watch for.  Well all of those things happened.  If you haven’t sold by now then you are a buy and hold stock investor and there is no sense worrying now.  Also, it’s probably the worst time to sell if you have already taken 30% losses.  

 

So the good news is that the CV will run it’s course and a new upcycle will eventually begin.  If you are a Long Term investor (5-15 years or more) you have a great opportunity to rebalance your portfolio and buy best in breed stocks in any given sector.  If you were too heavily invested in one or 2 Sectors like Technology, Oil, Hospitality, Retail now is a decent time to diversify and have a more balanced portfolio.  You might want to buy some great companies that have a low debt, strong, balance sheets,  and a demand for products and services once this CV runs its course.  

You might even want to try buying some speculative stocks that are being propped up by the Government like Airlines, (Delta, Southwest, United, Alaskan) Boeing, or hotels like ( Marriott, Hilton, Wynn, etc). Just know they have been beaten down and are in serious economic trouble. Those are a very Speculative Investment that will probably take years to realize a gain.  It takes a strong will to buy those.  I bought Boeing last week knowing full well I could lose another 25% or more.  That was my one Swing Trade that worked out very well.  Some of my friends are trying to buy Oil as a Speculative Trade buy.  I’m staying clear until we get some clarity on the SA/Russia Oil War.  If you try that the stay with major Integrated or necessary for the oil business stocks like Chevron, Exxon, Hess.  Those are still pretty well capitalized without too much debt.  

 

I’m not going to post everyday like I have been.  As I stated my main purpose was to hopefully keep some of you from losing 20-40% of your retirement accounts.  Some of us don’t have years to recoup those losses.  In the future I will probably give you my thoughts once or twice a week. I just feel we are going to have some tough times ahead as our peak to trough may end up being closer to a 50% loss like in 2000.  Keep an eye out for the lows of 2191 on 3/23/20 on the S&P and if we break below that then your target low will probably be the 2016 low around 1800.  Expect more volatility as the process works itself out and the CV does it’s thing.  We will probably have more tradeable  Bear rallies on good news followed by more retreats on bad news. As I am  writing this the Futures look abysmal.  I apologize if this seems very negative.  I just call it like I see it.   Eventually this CV will to pass.  As always please do your own DD and consult your financial person for more in depth analysis and advice. Hang in there, and I truly wish you all the best!!

 

[NoviceInvestor]

Thank you Pitcher.. a great perspective On what is becoming a knowledgeable buyers market. I was speaking to a friend who is a small trader and he was saying that he wished he had the money to buy more stocks because it has become a buyers market.

Edited March 29, 2020 by NoviceInvestor

[Synopsis]

 

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.K20

 

NYMEX Dude Oil was $19.90/barrel on close Friday, March 20, 2020 AND $21.90/Barrel on close Friday., March 27, 2020.

 

NOW $20.36/barrel on nominally open Sunday March 29, 2020.

 

WHAT, pray tell , ARE THEE Bicraqi Iraqi GONNA "do"???!!!

 

YYYEEEAAAHHH BBBAAABBBYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

 

 

 

47 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

NYMEX Dude Oil was $19.90/barrel on close Friday, March 20, 2020 AND $21.90/Barrel on close Friday., March 27, 2020.

 

I expect oil to get down into the low teens if this SA/Russia doesn’t end soon.

The minute this oil War ends I will take a Speculative Trade in CVX and maybe HES.  

[Synopsis]

1 hour ago, Pitcher said:

I expect oil to get down into the low teens if this SA/Russia doesn’t end soon.

The minute this oil War ends I will take a Speculative Trade in CVX and maybe HES.  

 

 Let's See What Happens, Pitcher, AND The Very Best Of Your Trading Week To You!!! 

 

Go Moola Nova!

[DinarThug]

4 hours ago, Pitcher said:

I expect oil to get down

Wtf - Ur Expecting Oil To ‘Slide’ ?  

 

 

As A Mostly Fastball Pitcher With Only An Occasional ‘Slider’ - Do U Even Realize The Viscosity Of What Ur Saying ...

 

     

 

 

Sorry - I’m Missing The Ability To Watch The Opening Of The Baseball Season This Week And Thought That I Might Be Able To ‘Slip’ That One In...

 

  

[DinarThug]

Pitcher

• VIP Member
• 
• Members

 

 

7 hours ago, Pitcher said:

I expect oil to get down 

Yo Snap - And Here Comes The First ‘Slider’ !  

 

 

Are U Sure That Ur Not Stealing Signals There Slick ...

 

     
 

 

LINK

Brent barrel down by 6%

 

30th March, 2020

 

Oil prices fell significantly Monday, amid fears of a decrease in demand for crude due to the spread of the Corona virus in the world.

And, "Bloomberg" website showed, that the price of a barrel of Brent mixture fell by 08:35 GMT, by 5.54% to 23.55 dollars a barrel.

While the price of a barrel of US crude, "West Texas Intermediate" by 3.77% to 20.77 dollars a barrel.

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by DinarThug

[Pitcher]

6 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Sorry - I’m Missing The Ability To Watch The Opening Of The Baseball Season This Week And Thought That I Might Be Able To ‘Slip’ That One In...

 

4 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Are U Sure That Ur Not Stealing Signals There Slick ...

 

 

I’m from Houston, of course I know how to steal the signs.

 

 

[fixxxer]

Thanks Pitcher, appreciate your insight! 

[md11fr8dawg]

14 hours ago, Pitcher said:

 

 

 

 

I expect oil to get down into the low teens if this SA/Russia doesn’t end soon.

The minute this oil War ends I will take a Speculative Trade in CVX and maybe HES.  

 

Yep Pitcher, BA will be fine because of future orders, military contracts of late and building the first Space Force Vehicle. CVX has a nice dividend and will be one of the first petro companies to come back strong. JMHO.

[Pitcher]

19 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:

Yep Pitcher, BA will be fine because of future orders, military contracts of late and building the first Space Force Vehicle. CVX has a nice dividend and will be one of the first petro companies to come back strong. JMH

 

I traded BA short earlier, now I’m long.  Both are Day Trades.  It has all the things I look for in a trade. High Volume and low spreads