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Adam Montana Weekly 18 March 2020


Adam Montana
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When things get real negative and all seems lost I try to tune all that negative stuff out and start looking for opportunities.  We all know the Stock Market is beat up and oversold. I believe we are going lower as the CV spreads in the USA.  What we are all going through has never happened, but one day it will end.  New Therapies and Vaccines will be developed and life will go on.   Think about all the opportunities that will be coming.  I’m a Stock Trader so I’ve been working on a list of stocks that I believe will come back because in 2-3 years I don’t want to say, “ Damn I missed the opportunity of a lifetime”.  It’s kind of the same psychology as why we all bought Dinars.  Buy low sell high and we all thought we were buying low.  

 

I can’t pinpoint exactly when the Stock Market will turn back up but it will.  At some point the CV will run it’s course naturally or end with new Vaccines and Therapies.  The question is, will you be ready to seize the opportunity when things get better by spending your time off educating and preparing for the Great Recovery.  

 

At at some point stocks become so oversold it’s just stupid. The Market is pricing some stocks as though they have zero value.  When you see CEO’s buying their own companies that will be a good sign that this CV sell off is over done.  Below is a chart that shows exactly what I’m talking about.  Im not recommending you go buy FRGI, it’s only an example of what I think will happen in the coming weeks and months as smart investors who have done their homework will roll the dice and take a swing on their favorite stocks.

 

I will I’ll not give you my picks because I’m no guru but just as I tried to warn you of what I saw coming in the down fall I’m telling you I believe we will go back up.  Markets overshoot to the upside and they do the same to the downside.  We WILL probably go lower because we are not through the worst part of the CV but start preparing for the eventual burst back up. I haven’t made any new Long investments or put on any Swings yet but I’m ready when I see the right things.  

 

3BBDDEF9-30D7-46A8-90C7-403961511975.jpeg.9400617334f98fbf0c82ba98d0e35df3.jpeg

 

 

Please DO NOT GO BUY THIS COMPANY!!!   I’m only using this chart to illustrate the possible bursts that will be coming at some point.  There are many factors bringing our Market down right now.  Eventually all that need to sell will be out and all those that are shorting will have to cover as strong investors RUSH in to buy a bargain.   That is what this chart shows.  Mostly shortie covering and getting out and true bargain hunters getting in.

 

Stay positive, be safe, and prepare for the eventual Great Recovery.  If not in the Stock Market, then whatever you choose.  

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Thank you Pitcher for a calm and rational explanation. True Markets rebound but we must also be reminded as we travel through these uncertain times that there are many younger ones worldwide that have never known tough times, never had to draw on their own reserves and inner strength to accept what is happening in the world today. But at the same time they are more fortunate than those of generations pasts because even in their isolation they have social media to help them keep in touch.

My prayers and thoughts are with those who will struggle to keep the roof over theirs heads and food on their tables and their bills paid, and at the same time thank God for allowing me to appreciate the simple life I have.

 

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1 hour ago, DinarThug said:

Confirmed leaks behind the scenes (Iraq Today) gets the number of deputies supporting the government of Al-Zrafi and the opposition blocs

 
Policy  ,   03/22/2020 23:12   

 

38864.jpg?watermark=4
 

 

Baghdad - Iraq today:

 

(Iraq Today) obtained confirmed information indicating the number of political blocs in support system" rel="">support of the passing of the government of Prime Minister-designate Adnan al-Zarfi, as well as the opposition blocs to pass the prospective government.

And among a private source, the number of deputies supporting Al-Zorfi amounted to 216deputies from the various political blocs, while the opposition side reached only 78 deputies.

The source pointed out, the Sawiron bloc has 50 deputies and the victory alliance 25, the Iraqi Forces Union 45, the Kurdistan Alliance 39 deputies as well as the National List 21, as well as the wisdom stream 15 deputies and the Kurdish Change Movement 8 deputies and the new generation movement 3 deputies, as well as dissidents from The state of law has 6 deputies, and also a portion of the conquest amounted to 9 deputies. ”

He continued, while the number of deputies opposing the passage of the Al-Zorfi government reached only 78 deputies distributed among the League of Masses, the Badr bloc and the rule of law, as well as the movement of giving and virtue.

The source pointed out that the Al-Zorfi government will pass in complete comfort and will have unprecedented parliamentary support system" rel="">support and will pass before the end of the constitutional period.

The source also added, that Al-Zarfi’s mandate is continuing and the opposition blocs fear that he will go to parliament to know that he will pass his government cabinet.

He also added that Mr. Al-Sadr is still supportive of assigning with the Victory Alliance, while changing the positions of wisdom and approach in favor of Al-Zarfi, pointing out that information blocks are pushing false information to confuse the taxpayer as well as the representatives who support system" rel="">support him.

link

 

On 3/18/2020 at 7:27 AM, Adam Montana said:

here's a name for you: Adnan Al Zurfi. That's the name of the person just appointed to the Iraqi Prime Minister position

 

give it a few days for some news to come out, and I'll be back with a formal Prime Minister post in a couple days. :twothumbs:

 

Confirmed leaks behind the scenes (Iraq Today) gets the number of deputies supporting the government of Al-Zrafi and the opposition blocs

 
Policy  ,   03/22/2020 23:12   

 

38864.jpg?watermark=4
 

 

Baghdad - Iraq today:

 

(Iraq Today) obtained confirmed information indicating the number of political blocs in support system" rel="">support of the passing of the government of Prime Minister-designate Adnan al-Zarfi, as well as the opposition blocs to pass the prospective government.

And among a private source, the number of deputies supporting Al-Zorfi amounted to 216 deputies from the various political blocs, while the opposition side reached only 78 deputies.

The source pointed out, the Sawiron bloc has 50 deputies and the victory alliance 25, the Iraqi Forces Union 45, the Kurdistan Alliance 39 deputies as well as the National List 21, as well as the wisdom stream 15 deputies and the Kurdish Change Movement 8 deputies and the new generation movement 3 deputies, as well as dissidents from The state of law has 6 deputies, and also a portion of the conquest amounted to 9 deputies. ”

He continued, while the number of deputies opposing the passage of the Al-Zorfi government reached only 78 deputies distributed among the League of Masses, the Badr bloc and the rule of law, as well as the movement of giving and virtue.

The source pointed out that the Al-Zorfi government will pass in complete comfort and will have unprecedented parliamentary support system" rel="">support and will pass before the end of the constitutional period.

The source also added, that Al-Zarfi’s mandate is continuing and the opposition blocs fear that he will go to parliament to know that he will pass his government cabinet.

He also added that Mr. Al-Sadr is still supportive of assigning with the Victory Alliance, while changing the positions of wisdom and approach in favor of Al-Zarfi, pointing out that information blocks are pushing false information to confuse the taxpayer as well as the representatives who support system" rel="">support him.

link

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4 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Strutting Bros, 

 

Clearly The Bro’s Were Strutting Straight To The Liquor Store  ! :o 

 

73171AF7-3927-4E45-B23F-2F0C10BD577B.gif.6fdc24657dedc3eb54a32228af7999f1.gif


That’s About As Close To A Straight Line As U’ll Ever See Those Two ‘Butt’ Heads Walking ...

 

:D  :D  :D 

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On 3/18/2020 at 8:07 PM, DinarThug said:


Oh My Cod - She Went ‘Reeling’ After Getting Totally Fish Slapped ! :o 

 

1DB1D81C-30CB-418A-A80E-4E01780DE9A4.gif.8b57f2846e213f291a650c654dfea218.gif

 

And Probably Wound Up Flat On Her Bass ...

 

:D  :D  :D 


Walleye suggest she finds a different perch to stand on. Maybe a bit more northern to avoid that crappie.  😬

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My last post is a Daily of the S&P 500.  I had over 20 phone calls and txts from friends wanting to know is it time to go in and what was I doing today.  Unbelievable.  Standard answer, go talk to your Investment guy.  I don’t even try to pick bottoms or tops and anyone who says they can probably has an agenda.  

 

So today was the huge 2000-3000 point relief rally I have been expecting on the DJ-30.    Did I Day trade it? Yes with both fists.  I also bought one stock and one Gold ETF yesterday right before close.  I intended both to be little Swing trades but the gain was good enough to take some profit and left a smaller position hopefully go higher in both.  

 

Im a pretty experienced trader and I can’t tell if this is the bottom and the beginning of a nice V recovery.  I just saw the way the day finished yesterday and took a chance. Sometimes you get it right.  I still believe this is a bear flag rally driven by a Stimulus package from Congress and a lot of shorts covering going into the close. ( machine trades). Tomorrow we may get a Bill passed and actually see a selling of the news scenario.  The news is still not good on the CV infection and death counts and the business world is shut down with a possible 25-30% unemployment rate.  Earnings in Q2 will be a disaster. 

 

So to answer should we go in?  This might be a trade-able rally and as I said earlier I am giving it a try both with Swing trades ( 1 day to as long as I think it will continue going up or down if I’m shorting) and Day trades.  For those that want to buy some for Longer term just know this market could swing back down quickly on any bad news. I will be more inclined to get serious about buying for a long term investment ( 3-5 year or longer time frame) when we cross over the 20 ema and then the 50 ema. 

 

Every Investor should consult their Financial person and do your own DD.  I am no guru, just a trader sharing some of my thoughts. I wish everyone the best and please stay safe in this crisis.  

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The boys in NYC are playing with us today.  Sucked everyone in on the Stimulus Bill and then pulled the rug in a Classic sell the news scenario.  I shorted AAL for a nice trade. Looking for a bounce back up.  They may just trade us sideways in a trading range now.  Geez. Never a dull moment at the trading desk.  We went from Over 500 up on the DJ30 to now at up only 70.   Fast action today. 

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The Market is back up over 600 on the DJ-30 now.  I got my bounce but in LUV.  

Very active market today. Just from what I’m seeing right now at 1130 am ET we might get another semi up day tomorrow and probably a run to the 20 ema on the S&P.

If we get through the 20 ema we may extend this rally into Friday.  I still have my two swings going but I’m watching that 20ema careful for a kiss and back down.  I’m hoping we can go sideways for a few days so the Market can let time be a healer of a broken up Market.  A consolidation or base building action would be more healthy than a swift up followed by a sharp decline.  We will see.  They don’t consult me when they trade. Haha.  The Market will do what it wants to do by the people who trade it.  

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A few analysts claimed the bottom is in for this bear market.  We now have a very big rally going on.  The behavior is almost psycho.  We may be going up for now but the FACT is we still have a lot of bad things still going on.  I still think this is a trade-able rally but I still think we have a lot of work to do.  Watch the Ema 20 on the S&P.  

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2 hours ago, Pitcher said:

A few analysts claimed the bottom is in for this bear market.  We now have a very big rally going on.  The behavior is almost psycho.  We may be going up for now but the FACT is we still have a lot of bad things still going on.  I still think this is a trade-able rally but I still think we have a lot of work to do.  Watch the Ema 20 on the S&P.  

what do you think about Microsoft?

Edited by Artitech
forgot word
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Pitcher

Gold went down around 10% and then has recovered.  

The junior miners went down ~30% and have not moved much.

Now JNUG seems to be on the uptick along with AGQ (silver)

Given the 2-6 Trillion Stimulus (debt increase/wealth redistribution/inflation) how can we not see the increase in Gold/Silver .

What is your opinion

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2 hours ago, Artitech said:

what do you think about Microsoft?

 

1 hour ago, RV-2-Day said:

Gold went down around 10% and then has recovered.  

The junior miners went down ~30% and have not moved much.

Now JNUG seems to be on the uptick along with AGQ (silver)

Given the 2-6 Trillion Stimulus (debt increase/wealth redistribution/inflation) how can we not see the increase in Gold/Silver .

What is your opinion

 

Ok guys, I appreciate you reading my posts.  I hope you get something from them. I hope you appreciate that I cannot be giving out individual stock picks.   I will give you my opinions but they will be very generalized.  

 

Msft is in my top 10 Technology Sector plays.  I Day Trade it, I Swing Trade it and I would invest in it Long Term in the right entry conditions in a NY second.  The problem going forward is how are earnings going to suffer as a result of the CV.  We know Q2 is going to be a disaster and depending on the Duration and we may get a second bout of infection in the fall.  In my opinion there is no reason to rush into a Long Term Investment (3-5 years or longer).  I keep hearing people say we will have a V recovery and regain all our losses in a matter of months.  Hogwash, not going to happen.  At best I’m hoping for a U shaped recovery. We will have some great rallies and you may feel a need to rush in but I’m telling you be careful.  I’m not rushing in.  I’m trading this rally and I have 2 Swing trades going.  One is doing very well the other so so.  I may sell them both tomorrow, that’s how jumpy I am these days.  Be patient on your Long Term Investment plays.  

 

My Gold ETF that I’m in is a do over of my getting stopped last week.  I’m thinking it will be a good play but it’s been a so so trade so far.  When we get those big down days everything gets sold.  I’m hoping those big down days are over for awhile but tomorrow unemployment numbers are to be reported.  They are going to be a disaster. I know the market usually prices way in advance of the news but again we just don’t know the duration and severity of what’s to come in the next month or so.  It doesn’t look like we have contained the CV and we may have a NYC scenario in all the major cities in the coming months.   I am very very conservative in my Long Term Investment picks.   If you want to swing trade for a few days or weeks that’s a different story.  

 

As always please do your own DD and if you need specific advice please consult whoever is running your 401k’s. 

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E5A0257F-ABC1-45ED-A57B-E81F511BCF57.thumb.jpeg.175737b6449efd1bd0b87aed9617d260.jpeg

 

 

1st cirlce, the 50 sma is almost crossing the 200 sma

 

2nd circle, We had a selloff the last 30 minutes of action today when Senator Sanders and House Rep AOC said they would hold up the Stimulus Bill.  You can go read about that and draw your own conclusions.  It was a bad sign.  

 

The MACD is starting to curl up. A good sign but it’s very early for a Long Term entry based on that indicator.

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