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Adam Montana Weekly 12 March 2020


Adam Montana
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11 minutes ago, 64jaguar said:

Glad you're feeling better!

I'm not a trader anymore these days Pitcher, (maybe I ought to be, my wife is), but Going to be some good long term deals out there pretty soon Imo!


Yes, if you pic the correct stocks. We don’t want to rush into Airlines, or oil stocks, haha. I’m looking for a sign of capitulation.
We might be getting close but the recovery will not be a V recovery in my opinion.  The Fed move today was good and helped the treasuries but the CV worries are still huge. I may look to nibble some next week depending on what I see.  I’m still in no hurry. I got cut up in my 2 gold plays this week. When I do decide to go in I will have a fairly tight stop.  The whipsaw action has been fierce this week lots of volatility.  

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7 minutes ago, Pitcher said:


Yes, if you pic the correct stocks. We don’t want to rush into Airlines, or oil stocks, haha. I’m looking for a sign of capitulation.
We might be getting close but the recovery will not be a V recovery in my opinion.  The Fed move today was good and helped the treasuries but the CV worries are still huge. I may look to nibble some next week depending on what I see.  I’m still in no hurry. I got cut up in my 2 gold plays this week. When I do decide to go in I will have a fairly tight stop.  The whipsaw action has been fierce this week lots of volatility.  

Just wanted to catch you and thank you for posting you thoughts and insights. 

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1 hour ago, ChuckFinley said:

It sure has been  but I think we come out of this ok on the back end. 

 

I don’t know Chuck.  There will be Real damage to the economy the longer this goes on.  Look at all the closings. That is going to have a profound effect on the economy/earnings.  Once the economy powers down it takes time to rebuild confidence and earnings.  

 

We are around 28% off the highs now. We may go to 37-40% if this CV takes longer to run it’s course.  In the Spanish Flu the low was 37%.  We have to get the health situation right and people back to work before the Market can get right.  It’s going to be a rough couple of months.  There will be starts and fits while it all gets worked out

 

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52 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

 

I don’t know Chuck.  There will be Real damage to the economy the longer this goes on.  Look at all the closings. That is going to have a profound effect on the economy/earnings.  Once the economy powers down it takes time to rebuild confidence and earnings.  

 

We are around 28% off the highs now. We may go to 37-40% if this CV takes longer to run it’s course.  In the Spanish Flu the low was 37%.  We have to get the health situation right and people back to work before the Market can get right.  It’s going to be a rough couple of months.  There will be starts and fits while it all gets worked out

 

Thanks for your insight. It may be the positive side of me talking. I do have a history of being very optimistic about things, such as this investment.  Even after 17 years. 

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1 hour ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

Thanks Adam. 

DOW will hit 20,000 tomorrow 

SUDDENLY

SUDDENLY 

SUDDENLY 

SUNDAY 

I posted last week  Kim Clement said 20,000. Observe the stock market. and when it seems it's at it's worst. Then SUDDENLY! Today that was the quote. "The worst one day decline in it's history."  I'm  watching the countdown to 20,000 Then....

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607C1656-FEBF-4986-950C-AA7C4B68BC51.thumb.jpeg.e51e1493e2dcf61a85abe392c7dce74c.jpeg

 

This will be my last chart update for a few days.  I’m headed down to the Gulf of Mexico to escape for 3 days.  I will be alone so I won’t be in any crowds.  The last 3 weeks has been a bit stressful and I always know when it’s time to chill out for a few days.  It’s time to relax a bit and recharge the batteries.  

 

The above chart is a weekly view going back 4 plus years.  If you look at the underlined dips in 2016 and 2018 you will see the Price of the S&P 500 checks up at the red line or the 200 moving average.  This is a line that goes back to 2011.  A beautiful rising Price in the S&P chart  pattern.  

 

Now look at this weeks action.  Today we officially killed the 11 year Bull Market and more important we broke the 200 ma.  Maybe we get some good news and have a ferocious rally tomorrow to form a wick while the body of the candlestick hugs the 200 ma.  That would be awesome and a nice relief. (Maybe even a temporary short term capitulation).   It will have to be a huge rally so don’t hold your breathe waiting for it.  The lows that are underlined are the supports. 2350 ish for 2018 and 1810-30 for the low in 2016.  Ouch.  I’m not saying we will go that low but it’s possible.  The RSI (circled) and the MACD below the chart look real oversold but when markets do these big swift sell offs the indicators are not as accurate.  If the news continues to get bad the market will go lower.  

 

The Fed action today gave us a nice trade-able rally (thank you) but it is NOT a stimulus for the Stock Market.  It was more a way to shore up the bond market by adding liquidity so the entire system doesn’t freeze up.  There were some big institutions trying to sell some bonds to raise cash but THERE WERE NO BUYERS.  It was a disruption of the bond market and we don’t need that to freeze up at this time.  The 10 year yield under 1 is a scary situation.  Keep an eye on that.  I don’t want to scare you but things have definitely gotten worse this week as the Markets are pricing in a Recession and that’s if we get things back up and going in a few months.  Don’t be in a hurry to jump in even if you see a huge spike tomorrow.  There will be fits and starts as the Market digests the news. Some of the spikes will be algo driven reacting to good/bad news. We saw that today when the Fed made their announcement.  A quick spike and subsequent draw back down.  

 

We are going to be in for a wild ride folks. Try not to worry and don’t be in a big hurry to rush back into the Stock Market.  In markets like this NOTHING WORKS, NOT EVEN GOLD as evidenced by my 2 swings cut short this week.   For most of you that are long term holders just turn the damn TV off.  There is a lot of nonesense being spewed these days.  

 

 

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