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‘The collapse in oil and the collapse in yields are both unprecedented and exceed the chaos of 2007-2009.’


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That’s CNBC’s Jim Cramer capturing the mood on Wall Street on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 1,600 points, oil prices CL00, -25.170% plunging and the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.538% plumbing historic lows.

In a series of tweets, Cramer warned that signs point to an imminent recession:

 

Cramer also said that, by the time the market closes, we could be waving goodbye to the bull market investors have enjoyed for more than a decade.

“I think that that’s certainly a realistic thing,” he said. “It’s been a great run.”

 

A great run, indeed. The bull market kicked off 11 years ago today — happy birthday? — and it emerged as the longest on record by August 2018. But this could certainly be the end of it.

A bear market is widely defined as a drop of 20% from recent highs. The S&P SPX, -6.763% would have to close at 2,708.92 to enter bear territory, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow DJIA, -6.852%, which briefly broke below the bear number, would have to end at 23,641.14. At last check, they were both holding above those levels, but things can change fast in this market.

 

 

The collapse in yields and oil is signalling an imminent recession...I think we need to parse everything and remember that while most stocks aren't buyable, they will get to be that soon enough at this pace..

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I hope they kill this Bull.  It’s time. Clean up the slop and start the cycle over again.  This is a great great opportunity to buy some quality stocks. I’m talking Amzn, Aapl, Goog, Nvda, Cost, Pep, Abbv, Mrk, JNJ, WMT, and so many more. Buy companies with big CASH reserves and are mostly USA centric. Don’t buy all one Sector. Diversify and have some stocks that pay GOOD dividends.  
 

We will get through this NO doubt in my mind.  Buy Quality Stocks and do not go all in at once.  Bear Markets are tricky.  They can last 90 days to 18 months.  There will be a number of false starts. Those Bear Flag rallies will break your heart.  I look for stocks crossing up the 200 first and then the 100 and 50 and 20 just like when it’s going down in Reverse.  Also try to buy after a few months of base forming or trading in a range toward the bottom. 
 

 

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2 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

I hope they kill this Bull.  It’s time. Clean up the slop and start the cycle over again.  This is a great great opportunity to buy some quality stocks. I’m talking Amzn, Aapl, Goog, Nvda, Cost, Pep, Abbv, Mrk, JNJ, WMT, and so many more. Buy companies with big CASH reserves and are mostly USA centric. Don’t buy all one Sector. Diversify and have some stocks that pay GOOD dividends.  
 

We will get through this NO doubt in my mind.  Buy Quality Stocks and do not go all in at once.  Bear Markets are tricky.  They can last 90 days to 18 months.  There will be a number of false starts. Those Bear Flag rallies will break your heart.  I look for stocks crossing up the 200 first and then the 100 and 50 and 20 just like when it’s going down in Reverse.  Also try to buy after a few months of base forming or trading in a range toward the bottom. 
 

 

 

I'm thinking it won't be time to buy for another month... Or maybe after Q2 numbers come out... Those are going to be bad... Very bad.

 

B/A

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I don’t try to predict. I just trade what I see. I had NO intention of trading today but got in 3 nice trades.  I know it when I see haha

 

The numbers may be bad in Qtr 2 but the market is already pricing  that in. The Market is always ahead of the curve

( except when we have crap like yesterday. Why SA is doing their oil war NOW is RUBBISH). The Market has to Price in all the stuff happening and it seems it’s EVERYDAY!!!  Last week it was the spread of CV, the 10 year yield and now we have an Oil War and next will be credit defaults by the oil companies that are too extended. There is little doubt in my mind that we will have a Recession, hopefully that is all.  The good news is this should be more of a transitionary event rather than a systemic event like 2008. 
 

If the Trump Administration comes out with Economic Stimulus to help small businesses and people who can’t get to work you may see a super fast recovery. 
Trump needs to lead and get coordinated with other G-7, G-20 countries to get things rolling. Expect the unexpected.   I tell myself everyday NOT to be polluted or prejudiced by what I hear on TV.   That’s why I’m mostly a TA trader.  No BS, the lines don’t lie.  Especially when support is broken. 

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