ixic Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 43 minutes ago, Pitcher said: Futures plunge on the CV and Oil news. Trading Limits triggered. Wow. Buckle up!! S&P are down -140 DJ-30 -1078 Nasdaq - 387 Oil is in the low 30’s 10 year at .51yield. Gold up 25 ish My GC contracts I bought 1650 last week are looking pretty healthy right now. Let's see how things are looking tomorrow morning about an hour before the US markets open. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, ixic said: Let's see how things are looking tomorrow morning about an hour before the US markets open. I think you will be good. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoviceInvestor Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Pitcher said: Futures plunge on the CV and Oil news. Trading Limits triggered. Wow. Buckle up!! S&P are down -140 DJ-30 -1078 Nasdaq - 387 Oil is in the low 30’s 10 year at .51yield. Gold up 25 ish A mayhem of madness ensues... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usndiver Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Russia's stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC By Natasha Doff and Anya Andrianova on 3/8/2020 MOSCOW (Bloomberg) --Vladimir Putin’s resistance to further output cuts has pushed Russia’s accord with the OPEC cartel that controls more than half of the world’s oil production toward breakdown. Some key metrics guiding the Russian economy help explain the president’s reasoning. “Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow. Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars. Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day. International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel. Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years. Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with. The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.” https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Montana Posted March 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, usndiver said: Russia's stronger economy lets Putin stare down OPEC By Natasha Doff and Anya Andrianova on 3/8/2020 MOSCOW (Bloomberg) --Vladimir Putin’s resistance to further output cuts has pushed Russia’s accord with the OPEC cartel that controls more than half of the world’s oil production toward breakdown. Some key metrics guiding the Russian economy help explain the president’s reasoning. “Thanks to Russia taking harsh measures earlier, Russia can now afford a lower oil price than five to six years ago,” said Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING Bank in Moscow. Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars. Russia resisted pressure from allies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make deeper production cuts at negotiations in Vienna that ended without a deal on Friday, saying it favors maintaining supply reductions at current levels until June. Saudi Arabia, the other major player in the OPEC+ talks, is pushing for a group cut of 1.5 million barrels a day. International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel. Gone are the days when Russia needed oil prices of over $100 a barrel to balance its budget. A combination of spending cuts and revenue increases pursued since the 2015 oil price crash has pushed the break-even point for the budget down to $51 a barrel. Though oil prices breached that level earlier this month, the Finance Ministry can afford to take in a bit less given that the budget ran a surplus in the last two years. Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with. The ruble is down close to 10% so far this year, compared with a nearly 30% plunge for Brent crude, implying that the Russian currency is still overvalued. In the past the Kremlin has been content to keep the currency weak to boost revenues of commodity exporters, the driving force of the economy. Bloomberg Economics’s Scott Johnson warns though that a blow to the ruble could “undermine domestic demand just when more external shocks are on the way.” https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/6/russias-stronger-economy-lets-putin-stare-down-opec interesting plot twist there for Russia - survive sanctions, emerge stronger. Also of note is that Saudi Arabia needs $100 per barrel prices to balance their budget, and what’s their currency value again? 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coorslite21 Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Adam Montana said: interesting plot twist there for Russia - survive sanctions, emerge stronger. Also of note is that Saudi Arabia needs $100 per barrel prices to balance their budget, and what’s their currency value again? That would be 27 cents to 1 USD.....perhaps the perfect storm? CL 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
md11fr8dawg Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 There's a LOT of storms out there right now. Sure hope we can get one to hit us. Doesn't have to be perfect just DO IT DAMN IT!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 The first circuit breaker pulled. Market closed for 15 min. The S&P is coming up on the 2725 support from June 2019. After that we are looking at 2345 ish. Its going to be be a long day. Do not try to trade this folks. I’m not. Just watching trying to make sense out of it all. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine1 Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 It has been the perfect storm many times over the years. Once it was because oil prices were high which would give iraq a better value on their money. Then it was low and that was a perfect storm. Then oil went up again oh that was a perfect storm again. This has been going on for years. It's easier for Iraq to sell their toilet paper at a low price and buy it back at a even lower price. Why would they sell low and buy back at a high price? I have played in the stock market for years and also managed all of US Banks 401k's for years and nobody makes money selling low and buying back high. Ya I know what you are going to ask,,, why are you here ? Well I invested in this sh_t show and will stick it out just to see if I can be proven wrong. I really hope I am proven wrong but I have been here since 2005 and no such luck. I know this isnt what you want to hear, so give me all the negatives you want they wont and dont hurt my feelings, heck they mean nothing to me. Just like the positives mean nothing too. Just voicing my opinion. Sorry for the rain on your parade. Have a great day. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Back open and down more e go. Dow down over 2000. S&P down over 200 The next circuit breaker is in the 300’s for S&P 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Out of 500 stocks on the S&P only 10 are up Clx, Clorox is up 1.38 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 I lost my gold stock, stopped out. Loss was no bueno. Still in my gold etf. Traded aapl over the VWAP, out in 12 min for a sold trade. Was not expecting that but I Trade what I see and let the emotions go. It’s not easy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 The S&P is holding the 2882 ish support from Aug 2019 top line The next support is 2745ish from June 2019 2nd line After that 2345 Dec 2018. Bottom line I have no idea what will happen next. This is an ongoing event and the selling isn’t over yet imo. I look for bounces off the support lines. I am also looking for an economic stimulus announcement by the Government sometime today or tomorrow. I’m looking for some leadership from the top. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rw.sutton Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rw.sutton Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 ISX CLOSED UNTIL 3/21! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rw.sutton Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 ISX CLOSED UNTIL 3/21! investor hall that is closed, ISX can still be traded electronically, sure makes one wonder! Im liking 3-17 through 3-21 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 i really like what I’m seeing. Markets have held for the time being and I’m seeing traders and big boys nibbling. I have 3 trades in so far and doing well. Even in bad times there are opportunities. The two charts are 10 min time frame and you should see the Compqx which is the Nasdaq held and in a trading range. The other stock is Dollar Tree. Price over the ema 20 on that 10 min and I went in. Got a nice trade and exited. I’m also in Aapl at 272.78. Trying to hold on. This is some tricky trading but again I Trade what I see. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, Pitcher said: i really like what I’m seeing. Markets have held for the time being and I’m seeing traders and big boys nibbling. I have 3 trades in so far and doing well. Even in bad times there are opportunities. The two charts are 10 min time frame and you should see the Compqx which is the Nasdaq held and in a trading range. The other stock is Dollar Tree. Price over the ema 20 on that 10 min and I went in. Got a nice trade and exited. I’m also in Aapl at 272.78. Trying to hold on. This is some tricky trading but again I Trade what I see. Thanks Pitcher for posting these updates. Can you post the pic of your workstation again. I was talking to a friend about it. Thanks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 No problem Chuck. 5 screens if you count the IPad and TV on the left side. I spend 85% of my time on the big monitor front and center. Everything else is for quick reference and when I study after the market. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Thanks 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey Mtn. Dinar Posted March 9, 2020 Report Share Posted March 9, 2020 Pitcher I know you are NOT a broker, but I would like Your OPINION. If I decide to call my broker and ask them to BUY me shares in oil, to hold for a while, would I eventually see a nice return? Eventually oil will have to go back up. Only asking for your personal opinion. Thank you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davis411 Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 19 hours ago, Pitcher said: No problem Chuck. 5 screens if you count the IPad and TV on the left side. I spend 85% of my time on the big monitor front and center. Everything else is for quick reference and when I study after the market. Looking good before I took a needed break from the day trading my Center screen was a 55 inch tv 2 smaller units on right 2 on left man that was hard on eyes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 I tried the TV thing but the resolution hurt ny eyes as well. I take a break every 20 mins or so. Even though we are up big premarket I still believe the trend is down because of the uncertainty of the CV and it’s effects on future earnings. What we have is a classic, some people trying to get out that will sell these up moves versus the people who are wanting to buy for the long term. We are exchanging weak hands with a stronger committed holder. Every investor has to determine if they go in now what will be the downside risk vs the upside potential. I thought about it a lot last night and I can see a downside risk of 5 to 15% remaining in this down trend. It is an educated guess based on my experience and a hard study of the charts last night. Is is 100% right, probably not but I will trust my instincts over what I hear on TV any day. It’s a moving target with the CV. We just don’t know and fear is a real emotion. Everyone wants this to be over quickly and resume the Bull Market. It just doesn’t work like that. Real damage has been inflicted on a few Sectors and that will have a ripple effect throughout the economy. I’m expecting more volatility and believe the market will continue to have big swings based on whatever news comes out. I came to the conclusion that I will continue to wait before I start investing. I will continue to watch the markets closely and continue to Day Trade what I see. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davis411 Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Pitcher said: Trade what I see Agreed i use to play more pre and after market wish I had a million dollars kicking around mid yesterday my thoughts were for a quick up Rick this am then yes switch over i believe coming down thats why I took a break rollercoaster can be hard on nerves when you drop 100 grand in 2 seconds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 18 hours ago, Smokey Mtn. Dinar said: Pitcher I know you are NOT a broker, but I would like Your OPINION. If I decide to call my broker and ask them to BUY me shares in oil, to hold for a while, would I eventually see a nice return? Eventually oil will have to go back up. Only asking for your personal opini I can’t give you that advice. Consult your advisor and see what they think. Oil is definitely beat to hell. Will it go back up probably but oil has a lot of problems going forward. I am not a buyer of oil but it might work out well for you and your portfolio. I apologize for the non answer but investing is a personal venture. Everyone has different goals and time frames for attaining those goals. I’m a trader not a broker or an investment guru. The reason I started writing these posts was an attempt to help some who are more active in their investments prepare for what I saw coming on my charts. I hate to see people lose money. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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