Adam Montana Weekly 4 March 2020

[Synopsis]

Thank You for answering all the questions including the upbeat and informative post, Adam, AND ALL The Very Best!!! 

 

Go Moola Nova!

[NevadaSam]

Thanks Adam for the updates.

 

Just hope the Iraq is ready to kick some @** and start doing something about the RV....let's hope they do, I ain't gettin any younger

 

Once again, thanks for all you do

 

Now......Gooooooooooo RV

[Pitcher]

 

 

The above chart is the S&P 500 on a daily chart.  Wow what a day, INCREDIBLE!!

Dow up 4.53%, S&P up 4.22%  Nas up 3.85%. That is a huge up day folks.  I believe this is a direct result of one Market uncertainty lessened, and that is the Dem Nomination is Biden’s to lose.  The DNC is all in for Biden.  That is a big relief for the market and a boom for the Healthcare Sector, up 4.89%!!!   The other factor seemed to be that the big boys decided to go in and try to exploit this relief rally.  The relief rally I’ve been talking about is definitely in play.  For how much longer will it go?  I’ve been trading for over 20 years and I’m not going in but if I had to make a guess I would say watch the 100, 50, and 20 ema moving averages.  Those are resistance points which sometimes become a barrier or a reversal point.  The next Pivot Point is at 3198 and where the 20 ema is at this moment.

 

I just don’t like to get whipsawed on the first hint of bad news which was pretty bad today with the CV in NY, Cali, and Washington State.  Today the market shrugged off the news and ran like crazy.  Will it continue?  Maybe for a few more days but tomorrow could just as easily be down after the big day up today. I like the RSI  (circled) which has a reading over 44, usually a good time to enter.  I also look at On Balance Volume, the Williams A/D, and MACD ( circled below the chart), which are not to good yet imo.  

 

Bottom line I believe this was a good trade-able relief rally for the short term but if you go in you better be ready to get whipsawed on any news.  If you believe the bottom was 2855 then you better have some strong conviction in your picks or be ready to stomach some hurt on a reversal on bad news.  That’s what makes a market, some go in and some wait.  I choose to wait because I do very well Day Trading.  I just believe the Coronavirus is too much of a wild card to go Long at this point. The action is too violent for me to go Long.  I will just continue to Day Trade until I feel it’s the right time.  I’m waiting for a retest of 2855.  If we get it then I win. If it continues to go higher there will be an entry point that I feel comfortable playing.  I’m pretty conservative with my Swings and Longs and have a ton of patience, especially in such an uncertain crisis that is the Coronavirus.   Do your own DD and be careful.  This is a very volatile time for the markets.  

 

 

 

 

[renomac]

WILL Oil Prices go Back up ? ? 

Maybe alittle ! !   But with all the OIL 

the USA is putting OUT, I dont see how ? 

 

GO RV
God Bless

renomac

[Pitcher]

13 minutes ago, renomac said:

WILL Oil Prices go Back up ? ? 

Maybe alittle ! !   But with all the OIL 

the USA is putting OUT, I dont see how ? 

 

 

Goldman Sachs says oil will be at 45 by April.  I’ve read other reports that say mid 30’s.  We’ll just have to see what shakes out.  The problem is OPEC doesn’t dictate the price anymore.  Many US producers are selling all they can just to keep from going under.  

 

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Source-No-Wednesday-Deal.html
 

OPEC Source: No Wednesday Deal

By Julianne Geiger - Mar 04, 2020, 2:30 PM CST

The OPEC meeting of ministers from OPEC, Russia, and other non-OPEC producers ended its meeting day without agreeing on a solution to the coronavirus problem, with Russia holding out, an OPEC source told Reuters on Wednesday afternoon, raising doubts that the group will get a bigger cut deal done after all.

While Saudi Arabia and a few others had pushed hard for additional cuts—some as much as 1.5 million barrels per day—through the second quarter, Russia, who sits in a better place budget-wise to withstand lower oil prices, instead lobbied to merely keep the existing cuts in place through the end of the second quarter.

And while President Vladimir Putin earlier this week saidthat Russia was willing to continue its cooperation with the OPEC+ group, it is no secret that the Russian oil companies were not eager to sign on to additional cuts.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak left the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting today after discussing the proposals for three hours.

Russia’s reluctance to sign on to cut even more oil production does not bode well for the oil markets, which have taken a severe beating by the coronavirus since the beginning of the year.  Analysts have surmised that the markets were already pricing in additional cuts by OPEC+, and any failure to fulfill market expectations could have a profound negative effect on oil prices.

OPEC has routinely pulled out a win in the eleventh hour, so all hope is not lost, and the bump in the road that is Russia may serve to successfully manage expectations in a market that was primed for a cut between 600,000 bpd and 1 million bpd.

Last week, rumors surfaced that Saudi Arabia and two other OPEC members would be willing to go it alone should Russia fail to jump on board with additional cuts.

[Pitcher]

I just read where Sort positions in oil have tripled since the beginning of the year.  

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Short-Positions-In-Oil-Have-Tripled-Since-Beginning-Of-The-Year.html

[BKD]

Thanks Adam,  very insightful and interesting  topics today. GO RV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DinarThug]

7 hours ago, Adam Montana said:

Sitting (temporary?) PM Allawi has threatened resignation - rather, he has "withdrawn his candidacy". 

 

https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/272434-mazin-al-eshaiker-as-well-as-adel-abulmahdi-is-among-a-shortlist-of-candidates-rumored-to-be-nominees-for-iraqi-pm/

 

Mazin Al-Eshaiker, as well as Adel Abulmahdi, is among a shortlist of candidates rumored to be nominees for Iraqi PM.

 

 

 

 

     By Ismaeel Naarand Hassan al-Saeedi, Al Arabiya EnglishSaturday,

 

22 September 2018

 

Sources with close knowledge of internal political consultations have asserted that among the names being floated by political groups for Iraq’s premiership include that of Mazen al-Eshaiker.

Several observers have said that al-Eshaiker might have better chances in case Adel Abulmahdi is not able to grab the opportunity of becoming Iraq’s next prime minister.

Sources said that the political powers had reached a shortlist of candidates for the prime minister position on two conditons: One who would not belong to any party and two, did not hold any position in the previous governments.

Al-Eshaiker meets both conditions.

Speaking to Al Arabiya English, al-Eshaiker said that rampant corruption in Iraq due to the poor choices of ministers who represent the interests of various political parties led political parties in preferring an independent.

“By selecting an Independent technocrat PM who picks his or her own ministers who will be responsible and accountable for the actions of all ministries instead of being accountable to the parties that nominated them,” al-Eshaiker told Al Arabiya English.

 

 

Iraqi lawmakers are seen during the first session of the new Iraqi parliament in Baghdad. (Reuters)

 

 

Sources also said that the political groups had agreed that the next prime minister would have the freedom to choose the ministerial structure of his government.

Al-Eshaiker confirmed that he was among the nominees for prime minister and thanked all those who trusted him as an independent technocrat candidate.

Al-Eshaiker, an electronic engineering graduate from the University of California in 1985, expressed via Facebook his appreciation for the people’s trust and support system" rel="">support for his candidacy. He highlighted that the incoming government has many challenges to improve the political, economic and security situation.

“Ministers needs to be chosen according to integrity, experience and competence standards,” he wrote.

Al-Eshaiker pointed out that Iraq is on the edge economically. “There is no way to continue with the quota system. Dividing the ministries according to the nationalities and sects was the reason for the reluctance of most voters not participating in the last parliamentary elections,” he wrote.

Al-Eshaiker, an economic and political expert, was born in Karbala governorate. He was previously one of the Bairaq al-Khair al mondawi in the Victory Alliance headed by Haider al-Abadi. So far, al-Fath, Saairun, al-Qarar, al-Wataniya and al-Hekma had approved accepted him to be one of the candidates, while he awaits for other blocs to approve.

Al-Eshaiker had established many electronic labs in the US, Mexico, China, Thailand, Taiwan and Singapore, he was the General Manager of Motorola Iraq from 2003 to 2007.

Then he became an economic expert in the premiership before being CEO of Asia cell Telecom in Sulaymaniyah and then he managed the Nalco Oil Company in Basra.

The main factors of al-Eshaiker’s program mainly depends on a strong developmental economic program, aside from the policy of piling employees in the governmental departments and allowing the free economy to take its natural place in construction, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism to absorb the Iraqi competencies and the unemployed labor force, to raise the living standards and service for all the Iraqi people.

Last Update: Monday, 24 September 2018 KSA 01:42 - GMT 22:42

LINK

 

[DinarThug]

7 hours ago, Adam Montana said:

the raise in the value of the Dinar is going to happen regardless of who is sitting in the Prime Minister chair. 

 

Parliamentary efforts to reduce the interest of bank loans

Wednesday 04 March 2020

 

Baghdad / Al-Sabah / Shaima Rashid

 

The Parliamentary Finance Committee ruled out that the budget for this year 2020 would be voted on due to the lack of time remaining, while its efforts to reduce the benefits of bank loans indicated that it leads to a decline in the economic growth of the country. Member of the Finance Committee Ahmed Al-Hajj Rashid said in a statement to "Al-Sabah": "The issue of interest is one of the methods of monetary policy, and the benefits are measured by the economic activity of the country. The more successful the activity, the higher the benefits and vice versa, meaning that the activity if it is weak must be benefits." Few, and if the government wants to reduce public expenditures, it must increase interest. "

He added that "the economic situation in Iraq is deteriorating and flabby, and the high benefits lead to people not borrowing from banks, and therefore the funds in the banks are idle and inactive money, which in turn leads to a decline in economic growth," noting that "the central bank is responsible for monetary policy It is an independent authority that no one can interfere with, noting that “the Finance Committee will strive during its upcoming sessions to host them and discuss the possibility of reducing benefits.”
As for the 2020 budget, Rashid said, “There will be a budget for this year due to time constraints,” noting that “the 2020 budget It has a deficit of 50 trillion dinars, which is what g Late in the Ministry of Finance, and therefore the parliament can not be passed, and only arrived in the financial statements. "

To that, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, called the boards of directors of Iraqi banks to reduce the interest rate on loans.

Saleh said: "The economic problem of Iraq lies in the fact that the interest rates are high for many reasons, the most important of which is the liberalization witnessed by the Iraqi banks, as freedom was given to the administration of the Council of Banks by determining interest on loans and deposits in the central bank, when one participation is called the monetary policy interest that banks borrow from the bank".   

link

[screwball]

yep pretty much...deicion to add three zeros was not made by iraq, so the decision to remove is also not made by iraq....Adam in mho is correct doesnt matter who is in charge rate adjustment will occur.

[Pitcher]

1 hour ago, Pitcher said:

Sort

 

Short not Sort. Geez. 

[DinarThug]

5 hours ago, Pitcher said:

I just read where Sort positions in oil have tripled since the beginning of the year.

 

3 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Short not Sort. Geez. 

Thanks For The Short Retort Sport !  

 

 

And For Ur Next Oil Report - Just Add A Quart ...

 

     

[ChuckFinley]

Thanks Pitcher, great information.  

[kiltman]

Never a dull moment here at DV, thanks Adam for all the great work you and the support team do.

 

Cheers!

[renomac]

"Short not Sort. Geez."

FORGIVEN for "Sort" ! !    

WE Love the Article ! ! !

Keep Throwing that BALL Pitcher ! ! ! 

 

Go RV

God Bless

renomac

[MillieChatham]

Thanks again, Adam. Reading the Cash In Guide all over again!

[FROSTYJACK]

Thanks Daddio. FROSTYJACK checking in safe from  Corona Virus. 😎

[Pitcher]

Looking to hold 3028ish on the S&P. 500.  Looking to play TVIX and possible short of tech sector.  It’s going to be no fun for me today.  

[Pitcher]

First trade completed. Shorted RCL. 

 

Gold stocks and gold etf’s Going up

[ronscarpa]

Thanks Adam for you insight and sensible opinions. Be blessed..! Ron 

[Laid Back]

@Adam Montana
 

1 - I'll need more info on "1,000,000 IQD is forbidden". The rule is $10,000 (USD) and up must be declared in most countries. 


Details .. Customs issues an amendment to the rules for permission to enter and remove funds

 

The authority said in a statement that Alsumaria News received a copy of it, that it "issued the first amendment to the controls for declaring the money when it was entered and removed across the Iraqi borders No. (1) for the year 2017 issued by the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Office, which includes the following:

 

1- The following is added to paragraph (5) of the controls, and item (c) thereof:

 

C - The customs authorities have the power to search people and inspect their luggage to verify the authenticity of the information declared upon investigation or suspicion of a false statement or a case of withholding the permit or in case of suspicion that the funds being transferred are illegal.

The following shall be added to the controls, and paragraph (8) thereof:

 

(8) The amounts permitted to be entered or removed from and to the territory of the Republic of Iraq include the following:

 

A - Amounts below (10,000) (ten thousand US dollars) or its equivalent in other currencies without declaring it.

 

B - Amounts exceeding (10,000) (ten thousand US dollars) to (20000) (twenty thousand US dollars) provided that they are declared with the necessity of showing them in support system" rel="">support of the purpose of entering or removing these sums and in the event that the supporting documents are not available, the traveler makes a pledge By bringing those documents after (20) days from the date of the permit.

 

A- It is forbidden to enter or remove amounts in excess of (20,000) (twenty thousand US dollars) or its equivalent in other currencies, and the process of entering or removing these amounts through financial institutions is exclusively.

 

D- It is forbidden to enter or remove amounts in excess of (..., ... 1) (one million Iraqi dinars) even if it is declared and the amount is seized and legal measures are taken against it.

 

The Customs Authority noted that "the amendment entered into force on 19/2/2020 at border crossings."

——————————————————————————————————

@Adam Montana

2- I still remember my first trip to Dubai, where there was a security checkpoint that required removing our shoes and they sprayed everyone's feet with disinfectant on the way through... but regarding your question, I'm going to need a link to be sure we are discussing the same thing

 

Posted February 25

The Central Bank of Iraq clarifies the administrative framework for financing imports and the mechanism for selling foreign currencies

 

 The Central Bank of Iraq clarifies the administrative framework for financing imports and the mechanism for selling foreign currencies

•  The Central Bank of Iraq clarifies the administrative framework for financing imports and the mechanism for selling foreign currencies

 

On Tuesday, the Central Bank of Iraq issued a brochure entitled "The Window for Selling Foreign Currency in the Central Bank of Iraq."

The bank said in a statement, "The brochure clarifies the administrative framework for financing imports and the mechanism of selling foreign currency to banks in covering their customers' requests."

He added, "It also clarifies the process of collecting and sterilizing the local currency

considering that this bank represents the monetary authority in Iraq

Sterilization is a form of monetary action in which a central bank seeks to limit the effect of inflows and outflows of capital on the money supply. ... The sterilization process is used to manipulate the value of one domestic currency relative to another, and is initiated in the foreign exchange market.

[Pitcher]

The Market is in a big sell off today folks.  The 10 year treasury is sitting at a .90 yield.  People are freaking over this.  To much fear and panic for something that may or may not happen imo.  The uncertainty is just the big issue the way I see this sell off. 

 

I play what I see, I traded RCL short and TVIX long today.  I also added to my two gold positions which are swings.  I’m not giving you my Swing trades but some of my favorite gold and silver stocks and etf’s are, Nem, Aem, Gold, KL, FNV, RGLD, AU, PAAS, Slv, Gld.

 

Please do your own DD.  This is the right move for me at this time.  It may not be right for you so talk to your financial guy before you go and do something that is not right for you.  I am a trader and my Swing Trades can last 2 days to whenever I think it is time for a change.  My TVIV Trade is a Day Trade, I was in that trade for less than an hour and a half and my RCL was a 10 min Trade.  It took years to gain the experience to trade this way, I don’t recommend it unless you are willing to dedicate the time necessary to learn this information.  

 

I will give more thoughts later.  We are currently trying to find a bottom and it may take days, weeks, or months as we learn what the CV does to the economy and if it subsides with warmer weather.  Don’t be in a hurry to go in.  There is just too much uncertainty.  

[Pitcher]

 

 

Ok folks another bad day in the market but this is exactly what a market does when conditions change.  Today traders got spooked by the 10 year treasury yield that dipped under 1.  For savvy traders that was a tell that the market may be in for some tough days ahead.  Once a few big Funds sell they all jump in and follow.  Truth is an algo probably picked up on the 10 year premarket and it got ugly in a hurry.  

 

The thing that makes trading the market so difficult is the changing conditions, super fast algo reading programs and so many people invested in ETF’s.  When the news and market conditions change the pricing needs to change.  Yes, in times of crisis like we are in now market conditions change quickly.  This week we have had a proliferation of many new CV cases, a Fed rate cut, and a change in the Democratic Nomination players.  One was very good news but 2 were not so good.  The market has to figure it out and it does that by the wild swings as the weak hands (fearful) folks sell and their shares are bought by folks who have a longer time horizon of holding the investment.  I’ve seen this process played out numerous times in the last 20 plus years.  I wish I had bought more Google in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2018.  Strong hands will buy those great companies ON SALE during these kind of sell offs.  I almost bought a handful off my buy list yesterday but chickened out and went with 2 gold plays..  For me I just don’t think we have found a trade-able bottom.  When I see it I can assure you I will load up like a big boy.  

 

Here is what I see and some real hard lines for you to watch in the coming days.

 

1. Tomorrow watch for a dip to 2977ish and hopefully a bounce to close over the 200 ema 

2.  Keep watching the 2855-56 support line.  This was last Friday’s low and current support in this down turn

3.  Keep watching for the 50 ema to see if it crosses the 100 ema first and then the 200 ema. This could take a few days or even weeks if the news settles down some.

4.  If the 2855 support gets breached next support will be 2725 and then 2625 ish.

5. If we get past all those supports the news will NOT be good and next support is 2346, the Dec 2018 lows.  That will be a 1000 plus haircut off the S&P recent highs and a 30%  drop.  

 

This is all very basic and if you want a more in depth explanation of the market using Technical Analyisis go to Twitter, there are 100’s of geniuses ready to confuse you after they make you pay 1000’s of dollars   Trust me I don’t only use TA.  I’m reading, listening, and talking to other traders to get my views.  

 

Bottom line watch those support lines above, know we are n a volatile environment with news changing by the minute, it’s not the end of the world, the market is orderly and looking for a bottom, but WATCH THE NEWS.  The Market runs on fear and greed and there is a lot of fear with this CV.  

 

Get those buy lists ready.  News isn’t always bad so prepare now while you have the opportunity.  

 

 

 

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Markets-And-The-Media-Overhyped-Coronavirus.html
 

How Markets And The Media Have Overhyped Coronavirus

By Josh Owens - Feb 29, 2020, 6:00 PM CST

In my last article, Are Oil Markets Overreacting To The Coronavirus?, I warned of the power of media hype when it comes to epidemics. The human brain has a tendency to mix up the severity of an outcome with how likely that thing is to happen. Just like our fear of terrorism or shark attacks, when it comes to epidemics we are incredibly poor judges of how much of a danger they really pose.

Our intensely interconnected societies and sensationalist media mean that this failure of judgment can translate into mass hysteria and fear in the markets that can have a tangible impact on the world economy. Oil prices have collapsed, stock markets have fallen by the largest amount since the 2008 financial crisis and the Dow Jones saw its largest single-day points drop in history. All of this has come from the spread of the coronavirus from China to South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan. But as this spread continues there is one key factor that market observers appear to be missing, highlighted by the below chart.

 

This is an epidemic curve showing the number of new cases per day in China (the world’s second-largest economy and the world's largest importer of goods). It appears that China is in the process of successfully containing the coronavirus and, for that reason, has already begun to reboot its economy.

The large jump in the middle of the above graph was caused by China changing its recording method from positive test cases to clinical diagnosis. The trend can perhaps be seen more clearly in the Guangdong outbreak in the curve below.

 

You can follow more epidemic curves updated regularly on Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection, including the more recent and smaller outbreaks beyond China's borders. All of the Chinese data suggests that the epidemic is coming under control there.

Here is a graph of containership congestion levels in the Outer Pearl River Delta:

 

China is getting back to work. And you can be sure that the Chinese government will be doing everything in its power to stimulate growth. Related: Coronavirus Meltdown Continues As Brent Drops Below $50

Here are some other key indicators that show the same thing:

 

But these are generally not the statistics or the graphs reported by the media. Instead, they report cumulative data and crude numbers out of context.

 

These cumulative graphs suggest that coronavirus deaths and cases are increasing and therefore the epidemic is getting worse. Of course, in a cumulative graph, the cases will only ever go up or plateau.

 

John Hopkins CSSE

This graph, which is far more relevant, shows a general downward trend in global new confirmed cases per day and an increase in new recovered cases. This data would suggest that containing the coronavirus is very much a possibility and if governments continue to follow good practice the new outbreaks can be controlled without impacting the economy too severely.

In fact, the largest threat to the markets at the moment is not an epidemic of disease but an epidemic of hysteria. Governments and medical institutions are reacting, as they should, to prevent a worst-case scenario. But for societies and markets to react in the same way is neither logical nor healthy.

For example, the WHO recently upgraded the global risk of the coronavirus outbreak to 'very high', a fact that spread across media outlets like wildfire. At the same time, the head of the WHO stressed that the biggest challenges to overcome were fear and misinformation. It is this fear and misinformation that is driving a huge portion of the negative sentiment in global markets.

Another way that media spreads this fear is by reporting the number of deaths and cases without context. Take the numbers below.

 

Yet, when compared to the global annual mortality of other diseases, the number of total deaths is relatively insignificant.

Measles: 140,000 deaths

Influenza: 650,000 deaths

Tuberculosis: 1.5 million deaths

Infectious gastroenteritis: 1.8 million deaths

Imagine a world in which every death from the flu was reported on the front page of every media outlet. You might be surprised, for example, to find out that in the U.S. 105 children have died from the flu so far in 2020 - the second-highest number of deaths at this time of year since records began in 2004. 

Another piece of relevant data that is frequently excluded from articles about the coronavirus is the age and health of coronavirus victims. With the death rate for an infected individual aged 50 or lower under 1% and the death rate of an infected individual without a pre-existing condition also below 1%. Related: Saudi Arabia Aims For Additional Cuts As Oil Plunges Below $50

 

 

A vital point to understand when it comes to public health measures designed to contain an epidemic is that it is always a trade-off between the deaths caused by the epidemic and the deaths caused by economic stagnation. Poverty is the single largest determinant of health, and economic growth is the single most powerful instrument for reducing poverty. This is not a zero-sum game and it will be a calculation that the Chinese government must make as its population returns to work.

It is possible that stock markets were in a bubble at the start of 2019 and the coronavirus was the black swan event necessary to bring it all crashing down to earth. As for oil markets, there is plenty of bearish news at the moment, with an oil supply glut, Russia angling to leavethe OPEC+ deal and Libyan oil production poised to come back online. Chinese demand has undoubtedly fallen in Q1 and everything from refinery runs to imports have been hit extremely hard. An oil price crash was entirely justified then. But the data doesn’t suggest that the coronavirus is escalating. The data suggest China has already started coming back online. The question is, when will that data begin to show in the markets?