Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
  • CRYPTO REWARDS!

    Full endorsement on this opportunity - but it's limited, so get in while you can!

Adam Montana Weekly 26 Feb 2020


Adam Montana
 Share

Recommended Posts

Today’s action in the S&P has been extraordinary.  We are seeing the fastest decent in the S&P 500 to -10% in HISTORY!!!  If you look at the chart you are seeing some sell side exhaustion.  This might be the oversold relief rally starting to take place.  I personally believe the selling is overdone in the short term.  I finally found my footing and got a good trade in SQ and UAL going up. I also believe there will a lot of volatility over the next few months.  

 

The chart below is a very nice example of calmer heads prevailing or the big boys taking advantage of the bounce like me.   

  • Thanks 4
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Several weeks ago I felt the corona virus had the possibility to hurt the stock market.  I also said I didn’t like the market which was at all time highs.  I stated that if the virus starts spreading the market would probably sell off rather quick, like a falling knife.  Well, it’s been a rough week for the markets and yes, markets don’t go straight up forever.  The Corona virus is now in 40 countries and is a very dangerous situation.  For this reason I am treading very carefully and don’t care to buy the dips or try to catch a falling knife.  This sell off feels more like 2011, 2008, or after 9/11/01.

 

I’ve talked to a number of my friends who are very smart traders and investors and many of them are saying the same thing, “ how do we invest in a market when we don’t know what this corona virus is going to do if it gets going in the USA?”  The statement I heard several times was, “This will be a great buying opportunity but I’m not going to be the the first one in”.   I agree.  This will be a great opportunity and I’m getting my buy list together.  

 

In the short term I’m expecting a short relief rally ( sucker rally) and then a resumption of the new trend, which is down.  We are now in a corrective market.  If you have your retirement money in a 401k and are getting worried you need to understand markets correct every now and then.  We are only a week away from all time highs and only 8% off those all time highs on the S&P.  Several weeks ago I suggested that you shouldn’t get too excited until the Price of the S&P breaks the 50 daily moving average, the 100 dma, and then the 200 dma.  If you look at the chart below you can see how spooked the market is now.  We have broken the 50 and 100 dma but not the 200.  We also have not had the 50 ma cross down over the 100 or the 200 ma.  So try not to worry too much but watch the news and watch this chart for those cross overs.  If you get too concerned call your financial person.  I’m sure they can give you more pertinent information and guidance.  

 

If you look look at the chart below you will see the RSI at the top of the chart is getting into oversold territory and the MACD is getting there as well.  The major indices have been down 5 days in a row.  Hopefully after President Trump’s Press Conference today the markets calm down some and we get that relief rally.  For those that are interested, a few companies that are fast tracking vaccines and drugs to fight this virus are, 

MRNA, GILD, REGN, and APT which makes face masks.  All are up considerably the last few days so don’t go buying em tomorrow.  Wait for a pull back.  

 

I am giving the board this information based on my years of trading experience.  I am not your financial advisor and as always do your own due diligence.  I am writing this post to hopefully alleviate your concerns and what to look for in the coming days, weeks, and months.  I am Day Trading what I’m seeing but not starting any new Swing trades or Investment Longs at this time.    Good luck and be patient in your

trading /Investing. 

 

081E66BC-FF32-458E-A807-87DB4F33E5D4.thumb.jpeg.9179351bd643845049c718adee1ea296.jpeg 

 

 

 

57 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Sorry, they won’t let me download my chart.  If any mods see this would you please erase my other photos so I can load some more. Thank you. 😂 😆 

 

Quality stuff there sir. :tiphat: 

 

Please try again, I changed the upload limit for you.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 7
  • Upvote 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you Adam.

 

This chart was taken at noon et.  You can see we held the 200 dma, which was big.

 

170B07CF-E62C-4F07-BA4C-93878BB57B2B.thumb.jpeg.f12a8c7ad6e6509f4d18d2e89305d78f.jpeg

 

At 1:20 et you can definitely see the S&P 500 held the 200 dma.  I’m not sure it holds but it’s a good sign for a relief rally.  I’m not buying the dips, not yet, but will continue to trade what I see.  Some stocks you may know that are bucking the trend are ZM, SQ, NFLX, ESTC, ETSY, MMM, and many more.

 

 I will continue to post what I’m seeing but just know we are in for a very volatile time as we struggle through the Corona Virus.  Hopefully our Government can keep the virus in check in our country as our International Hospitality and Technology Companies Deal with loss of business and chain supply disruptions.  

 

D500026A-BCB0-4C8D-B98A-A43E375DC97B.thumb.jpeg.b5b045b82bd903fcc15a7fa30201d8f0.jpeg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 8
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, I left at 1:30 et and it looked like we would hold that 200 ma.  Ouch, that was an ugly selloff the last few hours.  This chart is the definition of a falling knife.    The futures are up. Hopefully we get that relief rally.   I trade almost every day and I’m having a hard time pricing this market.  Sometimes you just need to let it play out or Hedge by buying some put options.   

 

 

4A792564-5BB6-4B0D-A624-7C7A12F9E07C.thumb.png.71ef487bbc41b51c9b2cf2470cfa5dc1.png

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They are throwing the baby out with the bath water now.  Starting to see some panic selling.  Ridiculous.  Not a buyer but getting my list fine tuned.  If you do decide to buy filter in for the long term.  I’m Day Trading UVXY today.  If you play any of these type of ETF’s DO NOT HOLD overnight.  They are a Day Trader vehicle.  

 

The Price is falling off the chart.  Brutal selloff, Historic. 

 

7F300068-0B43-436E-BBEE-7D5E176D70A3.thumb.jpeg.ea7e5165681fff94f79857b6c823c75e.jpeg

  • Thanks 2
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Below are two charts of the VIX, Which is an index that measures volatility. (CBOE Market Volatility Index). The top chart is the Daily view and the second chart is a Weekly chart.  The Weekly chart goes back to late 2008.  As you can see we are oversold but only about half as high as 2009.  In the last week we have basically lost all of last years gains.  The scary thing is, what if the virus gets going in the USA. The market is over reacting as it prices in the worse case scenario.  

 

Daily Chart

 

82A32114-47D8-4002-9543-2C86E119B60B.thumb.png.d23585990f25f7b10757219538643321.png

 

Weekly chart. The VIX is currently at 48.863F30D35F-BC7F-4B0C-AF6A-43A31E0A0C3C.jpeg.92fb772597871e1a0c3497e438c7b3cd.jpeg

 

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like we have a short term bounce now.  Will it hold.  I don’t know, probably not because there is still so much uncertainty.  I’m Day Trading this and took advantage of an opportunity in NVDA, and UVXY.  Stay tuned this is an incredible event, but like all historic events there are opportunities for those that educate themselves and keep a calm positive view.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bostonangler said:

see it like this.... If I walk in a store and everything is priced 20 or 25% off.... That's when you buy... Same with the markets, right now everything is on sale.....

 

 

It’s more like 12-14% off the major Indices and yes some sectors like the Energy Sector are over 39% down off their Oct 2018 highs.  Be careful buying this dip.  We may go up for several days or so but this market is now waiting for the other shoe to drop.  People who didn’t sell the rapid descent will be looking to sell into any strength, imo.

 

When you look look at the charts you can see a candlestick that suggests we will be going higher next week.  Support is 2850 ish, then 2720 ish. If that gets breached on some bad news look out below.

 

 There have been some rumors that the Fed will lower rates .75

(maybe this weekend) I expect at some point President Trump, our Fed, other Central Banks will prime the pump to get the world economy going again.  I even think President Trump could possibly take off the Tariffs on China to get things rolling again.  I just think it’s a little early for all of those activities.  If they did it now I feel it would send the wrong message to the markets.  We are in the early early innings of this virus and a rate change NOW really won’t help.  Especially, IF this is not contained, and spreads into the US.  We are  just going to have to watch the news.  

 

Below are my personal Daily and Weekly charts to show you what I’m seeing and what to look for in the next few days.

 

Daily chart.  

The High on the S&P, which is now Resistance is 3393 ish.  The Low which was today is now support, and is 2850.

As you can see on the Daily the Price is below the 200dma.  You can also see the bounce off 2850 ( a very good sign short term).  A 25% retrace off that low would be around 2992ish, a 50% retrace would be 3125ish.  

 

If you look at the moving averages you can see ( from the top going down) the 20 ema, the 50 ema, the 100 ema, and the 200 ema. I use the Exponential moving averages, some use a simple moving average. (Personal preference). After a terrible week down you can see the 50 ema starting to turn down. We will need to keep an eye on it to see if it crosses down the 100 ema and then the 200 ema.  It’s not going to happen next week imo but AGAIN this market is very sensitive to the NEWS.  If we retrace on good news then the 200 ema is your first target and then the 100 ema. Those moving averages will be like a fence that the Price will need to break through on the way up.  

 

We did a lot of damage to the Technicals this week but the market overshoots to the downside and this selloff was too much, too fast, for the news imo.   Some people will trade this bounce ( I saw it this morning and did real well in my trade in NVDA), others will sell into strength, some will hold no matter what, and lastly some will rebalance out of their high growth stocks and buy some bonds and stocks that are high yield dividend payers.  Whatever way you go be patient.

 

I’m expecting a retest of the low of 2850 ish or double bottom before we get a sustained new trend up. ( and that’s if we hold that support at 2850). That will probably take days, weeks or months, unless the NEWS goes bad.  If you haven’t sold yet and are looking to sell some into this bounce, look for the first target at that 200 ema and then the 100 ema.  Filter out just in case it shoots past the 50% retrace.  If you are wanting to buy this dip as a trade be very very careful, and if you are thinking the new bottom is in filter in as it goes up.

 

I’m passing out a lot of information but I want to say again, I am not your financial advisor and what I am sharing is very elementary and basic.  For more detailed information you can send me a check for 2k and I will tell you exactly what is going to happen.  Haha, Please, I have no idea where we are headed.  I just Trade what I see and rely on my 20 plus years of trading and 40 plus years of investing experience.  I will leave one last piece of advice.  Never bet against the USA, and if you have a long term time frame you will do very well in the markets over 25-45 years.  Try not to worry and try not to do something in haste or knee jerk.  Best of luck to you all.  

 

Daily chart

 

BA0C4323-9594-411B-B6B5-10F280889AF5.jpeg.502dddf99cc047ab5e22785d6515e402.jpeg

 

Weekly chart.  That was one terrible week!!!!  

 

A3496378-15ED-469B-803D-32189647FC1F.png.40b07e6473514d8edfa2f06e760e0cbf.png

  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Pitcher said:

 

It’s more like 12-14% off the major Indices and yes some sectors like the Energy Sector are over 39% down off their Oct 2018 highs.  Be careful buying this dip.  We may go up for several days or so but this market is now waiting for the other shoe to drop.  People who didn’t sell the rapid descent will be looking to sell into any strength, imo.

 

When you look look at the charts you can see a candlestick that suggests we will be going higher next week.  Support is 2850 ish, then 2720 ish. If that gets breached on some bad news look out below.

 

 There have been some rumors that the Fed will lower rates .75

(maybe this weekend) I expect at some point President Trump, our Fed, other Central Banks will prime the pump to get the world economy going again.  I even think President Trump could possibly take off the Tariffs on China to get things rolling again.  I just think it’s a little early for all of those activities.  If they did it now I feel it would send the wrong message to the markets.  We are in the early early innings of this virus and a rate change NOW really won’t help.  Especially, IF this is not contained, and spreads into the US.  We are  just going to have to watch the news.  

 

Below are my personal Daily and Weekly charts to show you what I’m seeing and what to look for in the next few days.

 

Daily chart.  

The High on the S&P, which is now Resistance is 3393 ish.  The Low which was today is now support system" rel="">support, and is 2850.

As you can see on the Daily the Price is below the 200dma.  You can also see the bounce off 2850 ( a very good sign short term).  A 25% retrace off that low would be around 2992ish, a 50% retrace would be 3125ish.  

 

If you look at the moving averages you can see ( from the top going down) the 20 ema, the 50 ema, the 100 ema, and the 200 ema. I use the Exponential moving averages, some use a simple moving average. (Personal preference). After a terrible week down you can see the 50 ema starting to turn down. We will need to keep an eye on it to see if it crosses down the 100 ema and then the 200 ema.  It’s not going to happen next week imo but AGAIN this market is very sensitive to the NEWS.  If we retrace on good news then the 200 ema is your first target and then the 100 ema. Those moving averages will be like a fence that the Price will need to break through on the way up.  

 

We did a lot of damage to the Technicals this week but the market overshoots to the downside and this selloff was too much, too fast, for the news imo.   Some people will trade this bounce ( I saw it this morning and did real well in my trade in NVDA), others will sell into strength, some will hold no matter what, and lastly some will rebalance out of their high growth stocks and buy some bonds and stocks that are high yield dividend payers.  Whatever way you go be patient.

 

I’m expecting a retest of the low of 2850 ish or double bottom before we get a sustained new trend up. ( and that’s if we hold that support system" rel="">support at 2850). That will probably take days, weeks or months, unless the NEWS goes bad.  If you haven’t sold yet and are looking to sell some into this bounce, look for the first target at that 200 ema and then the 100 ema.  Filter out just in case it shoots past the 50% retrace.  If you are wanting to buy this dip as a trade be very very careful, and if you are thinking the new bottom is in filter in as it goes up.

 

I’m passing out a lot of information but I want to say again, I am not your financial advisor and what I am sharing is very elementary and basic.  For more detailed information you can send me a check for 2k and I will tell you exactly what is going to happen.  Haha, Please, I have no idea where we are headed.  I just Trade what I see and rely on my 20 plus years of trading and 40 plus years of investing experience.  I will leave one last piece of advice.  Never bet against the USA, and if you have a long term time frame you will do very well in the markets over 25-45 years.  Try not to worry and try not to do something in haste or knee jerk.  Best of luck to you all.  

 

Daily chart

 

BA0C4323-9594-411B-B6B5-10F280889AF5.jpeg.502dddf99cc047ab5e22785d6515e402.jpeg

 

Weekly chart.  That was one terrible week!!!!  

 

A3496378-15ED-469B-803D-32189647FC1F.png.40b07e6473514d8edfa2f06e760e0cbf.png

 

 

Thanks Pitcher... I do agree it is early and there will be a Dead Cat Bounce before it drops again. My point was that people need not panic but to wait for buying opportunities... You and I have talked about having money on the sidelines for a while and there will be the point where we will see the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Many people are going to freak out when they get their quarterly statements for their 401ks and that could cause another selling frenzy.... I hope people have moved some of their profits from the incredible 10 year bull market so they will be able to buy on the cheap. If you are retired or about to retire and need to live off your savings this could be a disaster for you. I had friends who were at that point in 2007 and didn't have time to recover and get their money back. The same could happen now for some folks. If you have time to wait it out the returns will be worth the wait... JMHO

 

B/A

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree BA.  When I got chopped up in 2008-2009 I started educating myself with plans to take over my portfolio.  It’s a lot of work but I like it.  Keeping up with all the news is not for everyone but for me It was the only way to go.  

 

I’ve read and heard that the recovery will be a V recovery.  In other words as fast as it went down it will bounce and go right back up.  That is the best case scenario.  To believe that will happen you have to believe the virus will be contained rather quickly and will not affect the world economy.  I don’t see that happening.  These things have to run their course and it may take many months for that to happen. If it starts spreading in the US you could be looking at an economic Recession and a 30-40 % Market drop.  

 

Take a look at Airline, Hotel, and Cruise stocks.  They are getting hammered. The uncertainty and fear that comes with a biological crisis is creating a panic.  This is not the end of the world and eventually the virus will run its course and new medicines and vaccines will be created to help in the future.  

 

As you said there will be some great opportunities to buy some great companies for the future.   I’ve been looking for a real drop for years.  I just hate that it is happening because of the virus.   I hate that so many are becoming ill and dying.  I hate that many people have lost a lot of money the last week.  I am praying that the virus is contained and doesn’t spread throughout the US. I am praying for those that have become ill and for the families who have lost their loved ones.  This is a tragic, terrible event.  

 

  • Thanks 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is a short comment sent to me by my financial advisor. See if you agree.

 

I can tell you are concerned the Chinese might be lying to us. However, we have seen no proof of this, only speculation (although I can see how the thought of the Chinese lying about this can be very easy to believe). However, given how global this disease is, everything regarding the Coronavirus is being watched under a microscope and keep in mind that the World Health Organization has been very involved since early on as well. The other point I will add is that the World Health Organization has recently indicated that the global rate of cases has slowed and they have made progress in treating the disease. This is positive news you won’t find in most media outlets.  Also, many of the deaths related to the virus have come from people who are older, previously had other illnesses, or generally did not take very good care of themselves for various reasons. With that said and without trying to be morbid, their combined economic output would be extremely low, especially on a global scale.

  • Thanks 4
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:

Here is a short comment sent to me by my financial advisor. See if you agree.

 

I can tell you are concerned the Chinese might be lying to us. However, we have seen no proof of this, only speculation (although I can see how the thought of the Chinese lying about this can be very easy to believe). However, given how global this disease is, everything regarding the Coronavirus is being watched under a microscope and keep in mind that the World Health Organization has been very involved since early on as well. The other point I will add is that the World Health Organization has recently indicated that the global rate of cases has slowed and they have made progress in treating the disease. This is positive news you won’t find in most media outlets.  Also, many of the deaths related to the virus have come from people who are older, previously had other illnesses, or generally did not take very good care of themselves for various reasons. With that said and without trying to be morbid, their combined economic output would be extremely low, especially on a global scale.

 

I think that is all true and obviously a letter to calm his clients... My guy sent out one that has the same message more or less... What else can they do? My guy is great and honest and told me by Wednesday he phone was ringing off the hook...

 

B/A

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

think that is all true and obviously a letter to calm his clients... My guy sent out one that has the same message more or less... What else can they do? My guy is great and honest and told me by Wednesday he phone was ringing off the hook...

 

My guy used to send out letters to calm his clients.  That was fine in 2000 after the dot com bubble.  It even worked on me in 2008 until I lost 45% of my retirement funds.  Then I got angry and started reading and educating myself.  I find it absolutely crazy that these so called experts can sit there and let a portfolio crash 30-50% and not do a damn thing except tell you that it will all be ok.  Rubbish, it’s not to stinking hard to take some profits and have some money in cash exactly for these kinds of events.  Most so called financial experts are sheep and spew the buy and hold nonsense.   With today’s charting tools you are a fool to listen to anyone who loses half your money in one of these crisis.  It’s incompetence, laziness or both.  If you lose a bunch of money during this event I might suggest you go find another investment guy.  They are out there and those that sit on their hands doing nothing should be fired.  Just my opinion, everyone does what they have to do.  I choose to watch my hard earned money like a hawk.  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:

they have made progress in treating the disease

Notice they aren't saying progress in curing the disease. What that signifies is that  immune systems are rallying like they are designed to do. It's an important point in that we all have capability to improve our immune systems.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, bostonangler said:

I see it like this.... If I walk in a store and everything is priced 20 or 25% off.... That's when you buy... Same with the markets, right now everything is on sale.....

 

B/A

I heard that corona beer is taking a beating in sales. Good time to buy.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.