CORONAVIRUS CAUSING OIL PRICES TO DROP

[KristiD]

Chinese lockdowns of cities, closed Chinese business/exports along with reduced flights have significantly reduced the demand for oil and are causing the price of oil to plummet.  How far down it will go will be determined by what happens with the Coronavirus.  It's hard to know how bad the Coronavirus really is because first, the Chinese government is probably under-reporting the seriousness of it and two, there hasn't been enough time for people to get accurate figures on how contageous it really is and what the real death rate from it actually is.  (In the interest of keeping this post brief, I didn't copy the full articles below because I don't think the details are really important.  What is important is how much further down the Coronavirus will push down oil prices.  But there is no way to predict that, so only time will tell.  At least we should have more information about that in the coming weeks (and not months).  In the meantime, at least we now have a better understanding of what's happening.)

 

There is a school of thought that says low oil prices will push Iraq to RV sooner since most of their income comes from oil (I believe it's about 90%), and since they need around $58/barrel to fund their country (assuming they will be able to continue to sell their normal amount of oil), if oil stays below $58, they will need to make up for the shortfall and the easiest way to do so is add value to their dinar.  That seems logical to me, but really, who knows? 

 

Anyway, I had not considered the impact of the Coronavirus problem on oil prices, but after reading these articles, now I understand it's why oil prices are dropping so fast.

China oil demand has plunged 20% on coronavirus lockdown; biggest shock since global financial crisis  

Chinese oil demand has dropped by about three million barrels a day, or 20 per cent of total consumption, as the coronavirus squeezes the economy, according to people with inside knowledge of the country's energy industry.  click for full article

China consumes 13 of every 100 barrels of oil the world produces, every oil company is being hit to some extent.  (That's 13% of the world's oil)  click for full article  

[Artitech]

We all know that the Chinese are lying right through their teeth about just really how bad this is! I really feel sorry for people on those cruise ships! I don’t know what it is  about cruise ships, they seem to be a magnet for any type illnesses! I Really don’t understand it either! We have taken several cruises, the ships we have been on, the staff was always cleaning and disinfecting all of the ship! Plus there was always hand sanitizer stations all over the ships! I’m praying that we can get a handle on this terrible virus before it gets worse! JMHO!🤠

[Laid Back]

Is Corona virus a new biological weapon?

 

Prof. Ghada Amer

Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi

Vice Dean of the Faculty of Engineering for Graduate Studies and Research – Banha University
Fellow of the National Defense College – Nasser Military Higher Academy
In 2011, a movie called “Contagion”, which means “contagious disease”, was shown at the 86th Venice Film Festival in Venice, Italy. The film won the admiration of critics, and when it is shown in cinemas all over the world, scholars paid attention to it and praised its accuracy.
Commercially the movie succeeded at the box office, earning a budget of $ 60 million. But the strange thing is that this movie tells the story of a deadly virus that kills a large group of people within days, and that with the growth of the epidemic that was rapidly spreading, the medical community all over the world is racing to find a cure and control of the panic that is spreading faster than the virus itself.
The movie shows that this deadly virus is a mixture of influenza and another virus called (Nipah), and that it causes encephalitis and respiratory diseases. The interesting thing is that the first woman who was contracted with this virus and died and subsequently infected others has proven to have carried it from “Hong Kong” on her business trip there.

Another important thing is that at the end of the movie, it appears that there is a bat habitat that is being demolished to build a factory, and the bats are still alive, flying to a nearby pig farm, there, a fruit is removed from the mouth of a bat that mixes with the food that the pigs eat. One of these pigs is prepared in a luxury Hong Kong restaurant, where the aforementioned woman shook hands with the chef who is supposed to have been infected with the new virus while cutting the infected pig and the global epidemic begins!

This film is incredibly similar to the outbreak of the Corona virus, which has spread horribly now. China is the source and trying to direct the idea of its spread (in the film and the truth) to the bats that it eats – not long ago – people not only in the city of Wuhan, but bats are eaten in different quantities in some regions within China, Vietnam, Seychelles, Indonesia, Palau and Guam, and in some countries in Africa and Asia and the Pacific, as bats have been eaten in parts of Europe and the Middle East in the past. Because I studied and researched asymmetric wars, and I know quite well that among their weapons are biological weapons, and that in the United States there is nothing called sci-fi movies (Science Fiction) but rather there are films that come up with ideas that are tested or produced in the research laboratories of the US Department of Defense . And I linked – after researching the matter – between what is happening in China and the hidden war that is going on between it and the United States. It may be a correct link or a mistake that will leave the judgment to you.
Before I put forward what I found, I will know what biological weapons are, sometimes known as “bacterial warfare”, they are the use of toxins or infectious agents of biological origin (bacteria, viruses, or fungi) to hinder or kill people, animals, or plants as part of the war effort to fail and weaken the target country.
Because it is difficult to control and verify genes that are targeted by biological weapons, it can spread in a way that is difficult to control, and may be destructive on a global scale, as it is banned globally under many treaties.

The history of biological warfare is a long one. It is a weapon whose deployment is simple. It does not need the electrical components, nuclear fusion, or titanium that is used in making missiles, for example. The use of these weapons also holds a certain appeal to terrorists, because they have the potential to cause great harm, and are also somewhat cheap when compared to missiles or other high-tech equipment.

Also, due to the long time it takes to spread and take effect, there is time for the perpetrator to escape without detection, and it is also unpredictable and most importantly, it creates a good market for the antagonists that only the manufacturer has. For example, more than two thousand years ago: Assyrians infected the wells of their enemies with “rye” fungus , which contain chemicals that cause those who drink them confused mental state, hallucinations and in some cases death.

In 1763, the British army attempted to use smallpox as a weapon against the Native Americans in the siege of Fort Pitt, as the British provided blankets from the smallpox hospital as gifts to spread the disease among the local population.

During World War II, the Allies built facilities capable of producing anthrax spores, which are widely found in nature, they are easily manufactured in the laboratory, and live for a long time in the environment.

It can also be launched in powders, sprays, water or food, but fortunately the war is over before it is used. But it appeared in 2001, as anthrax spores were sent through the United States Postal System, infecting 22 people, five of whom died. The guilty party was not arrested. And because biological weapons are so old, they have now been developed dangerously by gene-editing technology called “CRISPR”, the technology that has set off alarm bells in the defense community, as this technology allows researchers to modify the genome, thereby modifying the DNA sequence easily to change the function of genes.

A report, published in February 2016, entitled “Assessing Threats Worldwide to the American Intelligence Group”, was written by James Clapper, Director of US National Intelligence, in which he placed CRISPR technology on the list of weapons of mass destruction.

The outbreak of this virus in Wuhan, the largest tourist center of China, I think is not a coincidence, it is the largest modern railway intersection linking all major cities in China, and the Chinese New Year celebrations that attract a large number of tourists are held. This genius virus appears to have a long-term planned agenda against China to destroy its economy by describing them as suffering from a serious infectious disease. Media voices have started to rise and shout internationally against China as a demon and icon of death. This has raised concerns about Chinese food products, and will gradually lead to the social , domestic and outside cut of China, and this will shut down transportation in both directions, as we have noticed the airlines already stopping immediately.
This virus has had traumatic effects in the international community against China, as no one wants to welcome it at its doorstep, and there will be serious threats to inflict the Chinese economy in multiple ways, particularly through highly-rated propaganda regarding the travel ban.

There will also be alarming panic by issuing health and safety warnings as insurance companies will stop issuing insurance policies for travelers to China.

There are many foreign articles confirming that this virus is a biological weapon against China, but the most important was what was stated by a former member of the United Nations Committee on Biological Weapons “Igor Nikulin”, where he said that the emergence of this virus could be a result of the use of an American biological weapon.

He mentioned the scandal in 2010, when one of the 400 American military biological laboratories deployed around the world was closed in Indonesia because it was conducting secret experiments with the bird flu virus. When the virus emerged from the laboratory and a serious pandemic began, the United States refused to provide information about its work to the Indonesian Ministry of Health. Thus, the virus that was in the movie “Infectious Disease” may have spread to come true!

Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Pitcher]

The Chinese are way undereporting the numbers of infected and deaths.  Wuhan is a city of 11 million. I live in the Houston area which is a large metro area of about 5-6 million. Wuhan is twice the size of Houston in a more densely populated per square mile than Houston.  And, now they are reporting another city in China with 9 million is on lock down.  

 

If this thing is not contained then every aspect of the USA’s economy will be affected.

We are already seeing oil prices decline on the closing of Chinese factories.  The travel, hotel and gaming companies are going lower on their stock prices.  I’m thinking the stock market could take a 30-40% hit if the virus gets out of hand like the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918.  5 million worldwide died from that epidemic and the stock market took a 40% hit.

 

Like everything in my life I try not to panic and have a re-evaluate constantly strategy when it comes to markets and home supplies.  If you have your entire life retirement in a 401k or stocks in general start watching the markets a little more often over the next months or so.  We are still at or near ALL TIME HIGHS on the S&P 500.  If the S&P dips below the 50  day moving average start paying close attention. If it passes thru the 100 day moving average it might be time to call your retirement planner.  If the 50 crosses the 200 moving average you had better be taking some profits.  I have several friends who run Hedge Funds and they aren’t too worried YET but they are on guard big time and a little nervous.  

 

 Now the good news.  The USA is nothing like China when it comes to pandemics.  Our Health Care community is top notch and are on this big time. One of the companies I follow Regeneron has a vaccine that was used to stop Ebola and appears to be effective in the Coronavirus.  They are ramping up production to handle the expected number of infected people.  The only problem is it takes months to produce.  I’m sure other labs are working on ways to cure and slow down the spread of this disease.  

 

It’s a scary situation but hopefully it gets contained quickly.  

 

If if you want to look at a stock chart of the S&P go to stockcharts.com and type in SP500 to see the chart.  Usually a chart comes up with a 50 and 200 ma.  You can also add a 100 or whatever other moving average you like to follow.  

[Pitcher]

Here is a direct link to stockcharts.com with the S&P 500 typed in. As you can see the Pice of the S&P 500 has a ways to go before we all get panicky.  Just beware when markets sell off in a black swan event it happens quickly. For reference look at a chart from 2008.  I’m seriously not trying to scare anyone, Just beware when it comes to your retirement money.  

 

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=Spx

[boosterbglee]

Thanks Pitcher, I appreciate the information you post for us........really don't want to lose everything worked for the past 43 yeas! 

[boosterbglee]

years!  

[Pitcher]

No problem.  It’s not a lot of information but maybe you can keep an eye on the markets and talk to your planner if you need more information.  I have traded for years but one should always consult their broker or planner before doing anything crazy.  

 

Below is a chart of Exxon.  My family owns a large amount of Exxon stock.  I advised them to take some profits in July when the 50 crossed the 200 and the price looked to be going lower.  They said no.  Unfortunately most in my family are buy and hold investors.  It’s worked for them for 50 years so I don’t get too upset.  

 

[ChuckFinley]

9 hours ago, Pitcher said:

The Chinese are way undereporting the numbers of infected and deaths.  Wuhan is a city of 11 million. I live in the Houston area which is a large metro area of about 5-6 million. Wuhan is twice the size of Houston in a more densely populated per square mile than Houston.  And, now they are reporting another city in China with 9 million is on lock down.  

 

If this thing is not contained then every aspect of the USA’s economy will be affected.

We are already seeing oil prices decline on the closing of Chinese factories.  The travel, hotel and gaming companies are going lower on their stock prices.  I’m thinking the stock market could take a 30-40% hit if the virus gets out of hand like the Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918.  5 million worldwide died from that epidemic and the stock market took a 40% hit.

 

Like everything in my life I try not to panic and have a re-evaluate constantly strategy when it comes to markets and home supplies.  If you have your entire life retirement in a 401k or stocks in general start watching the markets a little more often over the next months or so.  We are still at or near ALL TIME HIGHS on the S&P 500.  If the S&P dips below the 50  day moving average start paying close attention. If it passes thru the 100 day moving average it might be time to call your retirement planner.  If the 50 crosses the 200 moving average you had better be taking some profits.  I have several friends who run Hedge Funds and they aren’t too worried YET but they are on guard big time and a little nervous.  

 

 Now the good news.  The USA is nothing like China when it comes to pandemics.  Our Health Care community is top notch and are on this big time. One of the companies I follow Regeneron has a vaccine that was used to stop Ebola and appears to be effective in the Coronavirus.  They are ramping up production to handle the expected number of infected people.  The only problem is it takes months to produce.  I’m sure other labs are working on ways to cure and slow down the spread of this disease.  

 

It’s a scary situation but hopefully it gets contained quickly.  

 

If if you want to look at a stock chart of the S&P go to stockcharts.com and type in SP500 to see the chart.  Usually a chart comes up with a 50 and 200 ma.  You can also add a 100 or whatever other moving average you like to follow.  

I totally agree here Pitcher. China can not be trusted to report or be honest in general and great advice there too. 

[KristiD]

Since this thread has pivoted to focus on the Coronavirus and not the price of oil, I'll chime in on that.  First, I also believe this nCoV is most likely a bioweapon from the Wahun BioWeapons Lab and that it probably was orginally stolen from a Canadian lab last year. Coronavirus Bioweapon – How China Stole Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponized It   But how it started is almost a moot point now because what's important is, "how bad is it - really?" And only time will tell us that, although at least we shouldn't have to wait long. 

 

Interstingly, nCoV has HIV components (Coronavirus Contains "HIV Insertions", Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon) and a doctor in Thailand has found success treating it using flu and HIV drugs.  He stopped short of calling it a "cure" (because we know that's a bad word to western doctors), but after treating a woman, who had originally tested positive for it, for ten 10 days with flu and HIV drugs, she tested negative (which to me, sounds like a cure as long as there were no lab errors).

 

The thing that cocerns me the most is that we don't know if this was an accident and the PTB are truly trying to contain something very dangerous.  Or if it was intentially done with an agenda, or if maybe it started by accident and has been co-opted into a psyop.  Will the PTB use it to get a large percentage of the population to willingly accept a new vaccine (though I'd personally opt for the flu and HIV drugs myself before it'd get this new vaccine - but of course that story is not well publicized so few people will know about that option) that has who-knows-what side affects and who-knows-what hidden in it?  Will governments try to use it to scare people so they quit protesting all around the world?  Or for some other nefarious purposes?  Or maybe it won't turn out to be that contageous, or at least not as deadly as they're projecting it to be. 

 

I just feel I need to wait for more information before I come to any conclusions about this.  But at least I know there's an alternative treatment to this upcoming new vaccine which will undoubtedly not be well-tested due to time constrainsts.  And I'll just add, it would make the wait a bit easier if the low oil prices did end up pushing Iraq to move more quickly on the RV. 

[Pitcher]

Eighty-six people die of coronavirus in a DAY in China as Beijing begins mass arrest of sufferers and videos shows hazmat suit-clad goons dragging people from their homes as the death toll hits 724

• Disturbing video, filmed in Wuhan, has surfaced showing three people being removed from their home
• Officials in protective suits and face masks are seen walking two of the people out while holding their arms 
• A third man then resists by kicking out and it takes three officials to pick him up and forcefully remove him
• On Saturday officials confirmed 722 coronavirus deaths in mainland China, bringing worldwide total to 724
• Also revealed five more Britons, including a child, have virus in France after one of them went to Singapore

PUBLISHED: 03:22 EST, 8 February 2020 | UPDATED: 09:37 EST, 8 February 2020 

 

 

Video showing people suspected of having coronavirus being forcefully dragged from their homes has emerged, as the communist regime starts rounding up suffers in Wuhan and taking them to camps.

Officials in protective suits are seen holding onto two people by their arms before a third more resistive man is picked up from the floor and carried away in one shocking clip shared online.

The footage, filmed in Wuhan, comes after China's Vice Premier Sun Chunlan called on a 'people's war' against the fast-spreading epidemic.

Last week the country's central government ordered the city - which is the epicentre of the virus - to round up all suspected patients as well as their close contacts in mass quarantine camps. 

 

 

For the entire article and videos click the link below

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

[Laid Back]

Oil Falls for Fifth Week as Investors Weigh Coronavirus Fallout.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-swing-as-investors-weigh-coronavirus-fallout-11581094414

 

Are Oil Markets Overreacting to the Coronavirus?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Oil-Markets-Overreacting-To-The-Coronavirus.html

[md11fr8dawg]

16 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Here is a direct link to stockcharts.com with the S&P 500 typed in. As you can see the Pice of the S&P 500 has a ways to go before we all get panicky.  Just beware when markets sell off in a black swan event it happens quickly. For reference look at a chart from 2008.  I’m seriously not trying to scare anyone, Just beware when it comes to your retirement money.  

 

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=Spx

 

 

Thanks Pitcher. You and a few others here really do us a great service posting info such as this. Like you, I am paying attention and my financial guy knows to look for a call from me in the very near future if things start to get out of hand. Better to be in cash and miss a bit of the hot market run up than to lose 40%+ and have to wait to recover, if you ever will at 70.

[Theseus]

Coronavirus is a common virus has been around for a long time, for example, the common cold has a strain of the coronavirus, as well as SARS. So let's backup to take a look at three items:

 

1. The first reported incident of the coronavirus from China was allegedly around January 22, 2020 (This is the date that is recognized officially). China is alleged to delay the reporting of the virus for a couple of weeks.

 

2. The province, Huan, that the virus is alleged to come from has several bioweapons labs.

 

3. Furthermore, the last article on the Hong Kong protests and the protesters was just after the first of the new year. Since then no news of the protests have been reported.

 

Given the timeline, one could allege that this outbreak was definitely manufactured to stop the Hong Kong protests because people would be afraid to go into the airport and the streets, knowing that it might be transmitted to them. Besides that, I remember hearing a report to state that scientists in the US to show that the current coronavirus strain was modified in some fashion  at the cellular level to make it into a bioweapon. Sadam and al-Assad were not the first individuals to harm their own people with bioweapons, and don't think they will be the last. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Theseus

[Floridian]

4 hours ago, Theseus said:

Coronavirus is a common virus has been around for a long time, for example, the common cold has a strain of the coronavirus, as well as SARS. So let's backup to take a look at three items:

 

1. The first reported incident of the coronavirus from China was allegedly around January 22, 2020 (This is the date that is recognized officially). China is alleged to delay the reporting of the virus for a couple of weeks.

 

2. The province, Huan, that the virus is alleged to come from has several bioweapons labs.

 

3. Furthermore, the last article on the Hong Kong protests and the protesters was just after the first of the new year. Since then no news of the protests have been reported.

 

Given the timeline, one could allege that this outbreak was definitely manufactured to stop the Hong Kong protests because people would be afraid to go into the airport and the streets, knowing that it might be transmitted to them. Besides that, I remember hearing a report to state that scientists in the US to show that the current coronavirus strain was modified in some fashion  at the cellular level to make it into a bioweapon. Sadam and al-Assad were not the first individuals to harm their own people with bioweapons, and don't think they will be the last. 

 

Good thought, but then why would they release the virus in Wuhan instead of Hong Kong?

I just Googled the distance and they are 571 miles apart.

So I don't think it's that.

I  do feel, however, that it's the stuff of biological warfare and would really like to know if it was released on purpose or by accident.

I wouldn't put anything past the Chi-Coms.

[Theseus]

1 hour ago, Floridian said:

 

Good thought, but then why would they release the virus in Wuhan instead of Hong Kong?

I just Googled the distance and they are 571 miles apart.

So I don't think it's that.

I  do feel, however, that it's the stuff of biological warfare and would really like to know if it was released on purpose or by accident.

I wouldn't put anything past the Chi-Coms.

Okay I dug a little deeper:

 

On January 20 the WHO put out its first Situation report. The first reported case was on December 31, 2019. As of this first situation report, Hubei Province (Wuhan) had a total of 258 cases.

• Guangdong (77 miles from Hong Kong, 619 miles from Wuhan City) had 14 reported cases,
• Beijing (725 miles from Wuhan City) had 14 reported cases,
• Shanghai, China (521 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case,
• Japan (1430 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case,
• Republic of North Korea (1000 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case and
• Thailand (1320 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case.

Notice the miles. Guangdong is just north of Hong Kong and a mere 77 miles away. It had 14 cases reported. It was not until January 23 in which Hong Kong had its first reported case. The nCOV takes between 2 days and 14 days before showing symptoms. It is transmittable during that time. The Dream Princess cruise ship had a port of call in Hong Kong first on January 12 and 13 and then on January 25. The cruise ship reported its first case in Japanese waters which would have been around February 3rd and 4th. Within the 2 to 14 day time period of first showing symptoms. Considering people are people, they would not have brought the illness to the attention of the ship doctors for a day or two. The CDC does not break down the reports by cities in China after the January 23rd Situation Report. 

 

It is is quite possible for the outbreak to have reached Hong Kong and then spread with the first case reported on January 20 given that it takes 2 to 14 days before symptoms to appear. At the outset, the earliest would have been January 6 that the individual in Guangdong was infected and only 3 days later was the first reported case in Hong Kong reported. Again people are people and they could have been sick earlier before they went to see a doctor for the illness. It was not until January 7 that the CDC established a 2019 nCOV Management System and January 27 before travel warnings were issued about China. By then the Dream Princess had docked once more in Hong Kong before heading to Taiwan then to Yokohama, Japan. For there to have been cases reported on the Dream Princess, it follows that more than one case that had yet to be reported was in Hong Kong. 

 

My deep dive started with figuring out where the Dream Princess had been before Hong Kong and afterwards. While the blame is now on a seafood dish (previously a bat soup), the virus had spread to Hong Kong at the earliest by January 5th as per the CDC report there was one confirmed report in Guangdong by January 19. As shown above people travel vast distances in a short period of time with the furthest case being over 1300 miles away by the first situation report. Thailand began screening airports for fevers on January 17.  Wuhan City quarantines started on January 3rd. So the confirmed cases outside of Wuhan City had to have been infected before January 3rd. Wuhan City does have an airport which is how the individual made it from Wuhan to Thailand.

 

As I have shown it is entirely possible that someone infected with nCOV could travel to Hong Kong and infect others by January 7, the last article I was able to find regarding the protests in Hong Kong.  

Edited February 8, 2020 by Theseus

[King Bean]

8 hours ago, KristiD said:

….this nCoV is most likely a bioweapon from the Wahun BioWeapons Lab.....probably was stolen from a Canadian lab last year.

 

Thanks Kristi. And, as I suspected, Canadian president-in-waiting Davis411 is to blame. As I understand, during a tour of the Canadian development labs, he used the virus to infect a slab of bacon, then mislabeled the package meant for Nancy Pelosi, which was eventually redirected to a Wuhan City Pizza Hut. POTUS Trump refused to shake Nancy's hand at the end of the SOTU address, having received intel from Russia that she had indeed opened the Davis package, then sent it on to the Chinese in hopes it would help them reverse the good economy news that DJT would eventually rub in the Dems faces. In a fit of anger, Nancy then publicly tore up the pizza recipe that Davis411 had sent with the bacon. The rest is history. More or less. 

                                                                                                                                       

 

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by King Bean

[Floridian]

1 hour ago, Theseus said:

Okay I dug a little deeper:

 

On January 20 the WHO put out its first Situation report. The first reported case was on December 31, 2019. As of this first situation report, Hubei Province (Wuhan) had a total of 258 cases.

• Guangdong (77 miles from Hong Kong, 619 miles from Wuhan City) had 14 reported cases,
• Beijing (725 miles from Wuhan City) had 14 reported cases,
• Shanghai, China (521 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case,
• Japan (1430 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case,
• Republic of North Korea (1000 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case and
• Thailand (1320 miles from Wuhan City) had 1 reported case.

Notice the miles. Guangdong is just north of Hong Kong and a mere 77 miles away. It had 14 cases reported. It was not until January 23 in which Hong Kong had its first reported case. The nCOV takes between 2 days and 14 days before showing symptoms. It is transmittable during that time. The Dream Princess cruise ship had a port of call in Hong Kong first on January 12 and 13 and then on January 25. The cruise ship reported its first case in Japanese waters which would have been around February 3rd and 4th. Within the 2 to 14 day time period of first showing symptoms. Considering people are people, they would not have brought the illness to the attention of the ship doctors for a day or two. The CDC does not break down the reports by cities in China after the January 23rd Situation Report. 

 

It is is quite possible for the outbreak to have reached Hong Kong and then spread with the first case reported on January 20 given that it takes 2 to 14 days before symptoms to appear. At the outset, the earliest would have been January 6 that the individual in Guangdong was infected and only 3 days later was the first reported case in Hong Kong reported. Again people are people and they could have been sick earlier before they went to see a doctor for the illness. It was not until January 7 that the CDC established a 2019 nCOV Management System and January 27 before travel warnings were issued about China. By then the Dream Princess had docked once more in Hong Kong before heading to Taiwan then to Yokohama, Japan. For there to have been cases reported on the Dream Princess, it follows that more than one case that had yet to be reported was in Hong Kong. 

 

My deep dive started with figuring out where the Dream Princess had been before Hong Kong and afterwards. While the blame is now on a seafood dish (previously a bat soup), the virus had spread to Hong Kong at the earliest by January 5th as per the CDC report there was one confirmed report in Guangdong by January 19. As shown above people travel vast distances in a short period of time with the furthest case being over 1300 miles away by the first situation report. Thailand began screening airports for fevers on January 17.  Wuhan City quarantines started on January 3rd. So the confirmed cases outside of Wuhan City had to have been infected before January 3rd. Wuhan City does have an airport which is how the individual made it from Wuhan to Thailand.

 

As I have shown it is entirely possible that someone infected with nCOV could travel to Hong Kong and infect others by January 7, the last article I was able to find regarding the protests in Hong Kong.  

 

WOW!  That's very interesting.  Thanks for so much detail.  When you said Hong Kong had it's first case reported on January 23rd, it brought to mind a YouTube video I watched where a man in China gives the daily report of how many cases and where they are.  I'm going to look at it now and look for any similarities.  I'll post it as soon as I find it.

[Floridian]

I just watched the January 24th video.  He said during the Chinese New Year, hundreds of millions of Chinese travel to see family.  I guess if hundreds of millions of people are traveling, that's a great way to spread the virus.  In this video, there were no statistics given.

 

Hong Kong is near Guangdong Province and today's video (February 8, 2020) report gives the number of confirmed cases as 1,075, second only to Hubei Province (24,954 cases) where the whole thing started.

 

 

[davis411]

Hahaha 

[gregp]

21 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Eighty-six people die of coronavirus in a DAY in China as Beijing begins mass arrest of sufferers and videos shows hazmat suit-clad goons dragging people from their homes as the death toll hits 724

• Disturbing video, filmed in Wuhan, has surfaced showing three people being removed from their home
• Officials in protective suits and face masks are seen walking two of the people out while holding their arms 
• A third man then resists by kicking out and it takes three officials to pick him up and forcefully remove him
• On Saturday officials confirmed 722 coronavirus deaths in mainland China, bringing worldwide total to 724
• Also revealed five more Britons, including a child, have virus in France after one of them went to Singapore

PUBLISHED: 03:22 EST, 8 February 2020 | UPDATED: 09:37 EST, 8 February 2020 

 

 

Video showing people suspected of having coronavirus being forcefully dragged from their homes has emerged, as the communist regime starts rounding up suffers in Wuhan and taking them to camps.

Officials in protective suits are seen holding onto two people by their arms before a third more resistive man is picked up from the floor and carried away in one shocking clip shared online.

The footage, filmed in Wuhan, comes after China's Vice Premier Sun Chunlan called on a 'people's war' against the fast-spreading epidemic.

Last week the country's central government ordered the city - which is the epicentre of the virus - to round up all suspected patients as well as their close contacts in mass quarantine camps. 

 

 

For the entire article and videos click the link below

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

Another holocaust.  

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/OPEC-Cuts-Fail-To-Boost-Oil-Prices.html
 

OPEC+ Cuts Fail To Boost Oil Prices

By Nick Cunningham - Feb 08, 2020, 6:00 PM CST

After deliberations, Russia appears set to support Saudi Arabia in the push for deeper production cuts.

close [x]

 

OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee met on Tuesday, and it was only supposed to be a two-day affair. The expectation was that the JTC would conclude that the oil market was oversupplied and that OPEC+ should cut more. But Russia was unconvinced and asked for more time. The talks stretched on, and the prospect of the negotiations ending with no result sent oil prices down towards the end of the week.

But Russia’s top diplomat ended the week by voicing support for more production cuts. The leading idea is another 600,000 bpd in cuts, which come a little more than a month after OPEC+ introduced the last round of cuts following the December meeting in Vienna.

The problem that some analysts have raised is that while the demand hit from the coronavirus is really deep, but it may only be temporary. China’s oil consumption, by some estimates, is off by a massive 3 million barrels per day (mb/d). That’s a huge hole in the market that, on its face, almost certainly would force OPEC+ to act. But if the virus is contained, demand could return quickly. By the time OPEC+’s new cuts are phased in, China could be back to normal.

Still, with Brent down below $55 in recent days, OPEC+ (and especially Saudi Arabia) feels that they need to take action. In a worrying sign for the market, Russia’s support for more cuts did little for crude prices on Friday.

The longer-than-expected deliberations in Vienna may delay the ministerial meeting that would finalize the reductions. Prior to the JTC meeting, the rumor was that the full forum would convene as early as next week. At the time of this writing, nothing had been scheduled yet. Related: Oil Prices See Biggest January Loss In 30 Years

The coronavirus is still raging (although the rate of spreading is showing signs of slowing), and global oil demand has taken a significant hit. But the severity and duration of the slowdown is incredibly unclear.

There is “a wide range of outcomes on different timescales still possible,” JBC Energy wrote in a note. “The difference for OPEC+ is that its supply taken as a block is arguably significantly less responsive than  refiners and their purchasing behaviour over a period of days to weeks, meaning there is more of a risk of over-cutting (or under-cutting, though less likely as far as we see it) what the market will actually end up needing, at least for short periods of time.”

The firm said that as of now, it sees demand growing by 750,000 bpd in 2020, which is about the same as what occurred last year. “So, again pretty weak,” JBC wrote. Related: U.S. Rig Count Drops As Oil Price Slide Accelerates

Meanwhile, Libya still has 800,000 bpd offline, “which continues to be largely under-reported/under-appreciated in the oil sphere,” JBC concluded.

Energy markets are in turmoil, even as broader equities are moving on. “While the (Western) stock markets appear to have already overcome the ‘coronavirus crisis’ again and in some cases have achieved new all-time highs, the concerns on the oil market are likely to persist for some time yet,” Commerzbank wrote. “This is because China and its imports are simply too important in terms of the global oil market for the massive decline in demand and possible medium-term consequences (e.g. continuing transport restrictions and reduced new car registrations) to be ignored, even if the coronavirus epidemic can be contained effectively.”

That helps explain the muted reaction to the news that OPEC+ would be cutting deeper. The cuts are “hardly likely to be enough to drive prices up,” Commerzbank said. The drop in Chinese demand, after all, “is considerably higher” than what OPEC+ is proposing.  

Oil closed out the fifth consecutive week of losses on Friday.

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/OPECs-Oil-Production-Plunges-But-It-May-Not-Be-Enough.html
 

OPEC’s Oil Production Plunges, But It May Not Be Enough

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 09, 2020, 10:00 AM CST

OPEC saw its crude oil production dip by nearly 500,000 bpd in January from December, overcomplying with the collective cut, the monthly S&P Global Platts survey showed on Friday, but the cartel is already considering deepening the current cuts in response to the coronavirus outbreak which is battering oil demand.  

close [x]

 

OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia fulfilled its pledge to continue over-complying with the cuts and Libya’s supply sharply dropped due to the ongoing port blockade, the Platts survey showed.

OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 470,000 bpd from December, to 29.08 million bpd in January, the first month in which the current stricter cuts are in place, the survey found.

According to the monthly Reuters poll from last week, OPEC’s crude oil production in January dipped to more than a decade low at 28.35 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies over-complying with the cuts, and Libya’s oil supply falling due to the port blockade.

Both surveys found that the cartel continued to achiever higher cuts than pledged, mostly thanks to Saudi Arabia ‘leading by example’ and reducing production more than its share in the OPEC+ deal. The Libyan port blockade also dragged OPEC’s production down.

Iraq and Nigeria, laggards in compliance in the deal, continued to produce above their quotas in January, according to the Platts survey, while Venezuela raised its oil production to a year-high of 820,000 bpd, up by 100,000 bpd from December.

Even with 128-percent January compliance, as per Platts, OPEC could be in for another round of deeper cuts as the cartel and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia are considering additional reductions to prevent a massive oversupply as the virus outbreak in China is inflicting the worst oil demand shock to markets in more than a decade.

The technical panel of the OPEC+ coalition is recommending an additional cut of 600,000 bpd in response to the lower oil demand, but nothing concrete has been decided.

[Pitcher]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Coronavirus-Pushes-China-Jet-Fuel-Sales-Down-25.html
 

Coronavirus Pushes China Jet Fuel Sales Down 25%

By Irina Slav - Feb 05, 2020, 2:00 PM CST

Sales of jet fuel in China slumped by a quarter in the last week of January because of the coronavirus outbreak, an unnamed source from the oil industry told Reuters.

close [x]

 

The virus had a severe impact on the travel industry, and air travel specifically, but the impact on total January sales of jet fuel was surprisingly moderate: total jet fuel sales for the full month of January were only down by 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the source said.

However, as the outbreak continues spreading, its effect on travel is bound to become more palpable. The number of people infected with the coronavirus has topped 24,000, with 492 confirmed deaths from it, according to CBS. Several countries, among them the United States, Italy, Australia, Russia, and Japan, have imposed strict travel restrictions to people coming from China, and more may follow.

It was this impact on the travel industry that sparked the ten-day-long losing streak in oil prices that may continue, after prices took a breather today when scientists in Wuhan said they may have an effective treatment for the virus. Related: Bear Run Sends Oil Down For 10th Straight Session

Chinese authorities are discouraging travel by air or road in and out of the most-affected regions and have imposed a lockdown on the 11-million-resident city where the virus was first detected. This has led to thousands of cancelled flights and consequently much lower fuel demand just as Chinese refiners got their first batch of 2020 fuel export quotas. But they may be in for more pain.

“Fears of weaker demand have weighed on refinery margins, and continued weakness could see some refineries cut run-rates in China. If we were to see this, it would likely be the independent refiners who are first to cut, given their focus on the domestic market,” ING strategists said last Friday.

Yet China will not suffer alone: the demand drop will spread to other Asian countries as well, compromising the continent’s status as the main driver of oil demand. In fact, expectations of weaker economic growth in China as a whole, as a result of the outbreak, has had analysts warning that the oil demand consequences from the outbreak could last for quite a while.

 

[Pitcher]

Five MILLION people were able to flee Wuhan before it was put under quarantine and head to neighbouring Chinese provinces - taking the deadly coronavirus with them

• Wuhan was put under quarantine on January 23 - but millions had already fled 
• The mayor estimated 5 million left the city, taking the coronavirus with them 
• Analysis has revealed the places they fled to match the early spread of the virus 

 

PUBLISHED: 02:02 EST, 9 February 2020 | UPDATED: 16:25 EST, 9 February 2020 

 

Around five million people were able to flee Wuhan before the city was put under quarantine because of the coronavirus, taking the deadly infection with them to neighbouring areas.  

 

For weeks after the first reports of a mysterious new virus in Wuhan, millions of people poured out of the central Chinese city, cramming onto buses, trains and planes as the first wave of China's great Lunar New Year migration broke across the nation. 

Some carried with them the new virus that has since claimed over 800 lives and sickened more than 37,000 people.

Officials finally began to seal the borders on January 23, but it was too late. 

 

See the entire tire article on the below link

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7983311/Mapping-app-location-data-shows-virus-spread-China.html