U.S. crude prices are up 25% so far this year, recovering from last quarter’s rout
By Amrith Ramkumar Updated Feb. 27, 2019 4:16 p.m. ET Oil prices are off to their best-ever start to a year as fears of a supply glut cool, part of a 2019 recovery in risky investments from stocks to commodities.
U.S. crude-oil futures have rebounded 25% in the first two months of the year, according to Dow Jones Market Data, the best January-February performance in figures going back to 1984. Oil is also heading for its best two-month stretch generally since 2016—when prices recovered in April and May of that year after dipping below $27 a barrel.
Oil rose 2.6% Wednesday to $56.94 a barrel after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister reiterated the country’s commitment to curbing output, the latest example of the de facto head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries defying calls by President Trump to keep prices low. Crude had tumbled Monday after Mr. Trump tweeted prices were too high. Wednesday’s rebound puts prices near the highest level since November.
This year’s rally comes after a punishing decline. Crude prices fell 44% from their multiyear peak in early October to a Christmas Eve trough as investors fretted that a global economic slowdown would weaken demand for a range of commodities.
Working Its Way BackU.S. crude oil has clawed back some of itsfourth-quarter slide early this year.Source: Dow Jones Market Data .a barrel18-month lowHighest since November 2014Aug. ’18Oct.Dec.Feb. Energy investors have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve signaling a cautious approach to further interest-rate increases and the U.S. and China moving toward a trade agreement. The S&P 500 energy sector has risen 14% so far this year, versus 11% for the broader index.
On Wednesday, energy stocks were among the market’s best performers, with the S&P 500 energy sector rising 0.4%.
Fears linger that demand for oil will stall. But the International Energy Agency still expects consumption to increase each quarter this year from a year earlier, albeit at a slower-than-usual pace in the first quarter.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have curbed output, despite calls from President Trump for the cartel to keep prices low. Anxiety also remains about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, fueling bets that prices can at least stay steady even if the rally stalls.
“Too many international barrels have been taken off the market,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “There’s a lot of uncertainty around production.”
Because of the Venezuela sanctions, some analysts expect the U.S. will extend waivers to buyers of Iranian crude that were exempted from last November’s penalties to avoid significant market disruptions. The waivers allowed several countries to continue buying Iranian crude through April.
Both Iran and Venezuela were exempted from the December OPEC agreement to lower output because of the sanctions on their respective oil industries. Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC are likely to back a continuation of production curbs when the group meets in April, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the cartel’s drop in January production, lowering output by 400,000 barrels a day, while Russian supply came down by just 78,000 barrels a day, IEA
FlippedGlobal oil supply started exceeding demand last year, increasing pressure on large producers to curb output.Global crude production minus demand, quarterlySource: International Energy Agency .million barrels a day1Q20172Q3Q4Q1Q’182Q3Q4Q-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02Q 2017x-1.2 million barrels a day Energy Information Administration figures on Wednesday showed U.S. crude imports fell to their lowest level since 1996 last week, a sign of steady domestic oil demand.
But many analysts are keeping a close eye on output from Saudi Arabia and Russia because many expect steady U.S. shale production growth to continue. The EIA said Wednesday that U.S. oil production climbed to a record 12.1 million barrels a day during the week ended Feb. 22.
That compares with January U.S. output of roughly 11.9 million barrels a day and 11.4 million barrels a day from Russia and 10.7 million from Saudi Arabia.
Worries about steady U.S. supply pushed West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, down more than 3% Monday, though they have recovered much of that slide. Crude-oil futures began trading in 1983.
“I would be surprised if WTI got above $60,” Mr. Yawger said. “Domestic production is too great.”
Some analysts also worry lockstep moves by stocks and commodities have set markets up for another rapid reversal if momentum changes and investors retreat from risk. U.S. crude and the S&P 500 have moved in the same direction 60% of the time so far this year.
The rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and S&P GSCI commodity gauge—heavily weighted toward oil and other energy products—increased to 0.94 last week for the first time since March 2016, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which looked at time spans of 50 days.
Correlation is measured on a scale of minus-1 to 1. A reading of minus-1 means two assets are moving perfectly in opposite directions, while a correlation of 1 means they are moving in tandem
Yesterday on a thread that was closed there were 2 individuals who were at odds about this dinar land adventure.
It has been interesting over many years, with many Guru's coming and going....and then coming again.
With the dates and rates.....
dates....ASN....(any second now)....to years off......???
the rates from 1 cent to 38 dollars.......so...blah....blah....blah
Where has there been consistency????
The answer follows:
Adam stated from the start that he was looking at 10 cents, and supported that with sound logic... now others are on that.........AM has said all along the HCL was the key piece to the puzzle......now others are on that.....he has been quietly consistent in his positions, unlike the others.
Now let's talk "cutting edge"......
Many years ago he has planning ways to maximize returns if this speculative investment should happen....
I doubt at that time he was aware of the many new regulations that were coming, including FATCA and the sorts.
He put his program together quietly and consistently. He created a very sound plan.
So go ahead and argue about this gooroo, that one, or the other ones......but
be happy for what you have found here.......cutting edge consistency with a balance of logic thrown in.....
Thanks for indulging me......life is too short for conflict over stuff like this.
By Adam Montana
Good morning Dinar Vets!
I'll keep this one short and sweet. We all know this is a rollercoaster, with severe ups and downs. Another thing roller coasters have is a few flat spots here and there, strategically placed to lull you into a false sense of security right before BAM! Another heart wrenching twist, maybe a splash of water and bright lights, then a dramatic climb to the top!
Without getting too dramatic... that's how I feel about the current week in Iraqi Dinar Not a lot happening, but I'm not fooled. Another jolt of excitement is just ahead, as always.
On a related note, anytime something big is happening in the US (elections, SOTU speech, etc) things always seem to calm down over there while they wait to see how things pan out. Again, I'm confident that we'll be seeing action again shortly.
I still feel that the HCL is vital to the success of an increased value in the Dinar, and they have been making steady progress - so I am hopeful to see more on that shortly.
In my opinion - none at all. With any major overhaul of the budget will come an equal overhaul of the budget.
I'm withholding comment on that one for the time being.
Unfortunately, the value of the dollar DOES affect everything and everyone in the entire financial world. I am sticking to my rate theory because it makes sense at almost any level other than a devalue of the USD proportionate to what Iraq faced... but that will never happen. The world simply won't let it, too many countries depend on the USD in too many ways to list.
Is it bad for us? Yes, of course. Everything involving higher debt, lower value of the USD, unpayable obligations... all of that is bad for us.
Nothing more than I've already stated... at this point, we are waiting to see what they throw at us next.
Because it can be better.
This is like asking "Why should I go to work when I already have a $100 bill?" Answer: Because you can do better.
*shaking my head lol*
I left my crystal ball in the VIP room.
Part 2 coming soon....