U.S. Retail Sales Miss Forecasts as Restaurants Decline

[bostonangler]

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales missed forecasts calling for an acceleration in November as clothing stores and restaurants posted declines, signaling the economy’s main engine may cool in the fourth quarter by more than previously thought.

The value of overall sales climbed 0.2% after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.5% increase.

Sales in the “control group” subset increased a below-forecast 0.1% following a 0.3% gain. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations, providing a reading considered more reflective of underlying consumer demand.

The data suggest a slowdown in business investment and weakness in manufacturing is weighing more broadly on Americans’ willingness to spend, which could mean a soft holiday-shopping season despite a relatively strong labor market, improved wage gains and record stock prices. At the same time, consumers likely still have enough wherewithal to support the expansion, and an easing of U.S.-China trade tensions should aid the economy in 2020.

While the readings were slightly weaker than expected across a number of categories, “we’re not taking any strong signal from this report,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc.

“We did expect private consumption to decelerate in the fourth quarter off its previous pace, so this is in line with what we were expecting in terms of direction,” he said. “Looking to 2020, labor markets seem to be holding up just fine and income growth is still quite solid.”

Bloomberg News reported Thursday that President Donald Trump signed off on a phase-one trade deal with China, averting the Dec. 15 introduction of a new wave of U.S. tariffs on about $160 billion of consumer goods from the Asian nation, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. stocks The S&P 500 Index fell amid conflicting signals from both sides on the extent and possible terms of any trade deal.

Other early indications for the holiday shopping season were more optimistic, with BofA Global Research reporting retailers had the highest sales gains for the period up to Black Friday since 2013.

Online Retailers

Online sales were a strong element of Friday’s report. Sales at nonstore retailers, which includes e-commerce, rose 0.8% from the prior month, the biggest gain since August. They’re up 11.5% from a year earlier, though that’s down from October’s increase.

A Bloomberg survey this month showed growth in consumer spending was expected to ease to a 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter, from 2.9% in the prior three months. Control-group sales have increased a paltry annualized 1.3% over the latest three months, down from 3.4% in the three months through October.

Even so, the weakness in consumer spending -- which accounts for two-thirds of the economy -- is likely not dire enough to spur the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in a press conference this week that consumer confidence remains elevated and that spending is healthy, with policy makers expecting to hold interest rates steady through the end of 2020. Last week’s jobs report for November showed payroll gains topped all economist estimates.

The retail sales report showed eight of 13 major categories increased, with solid gains in autos and electronics and appliance stores.

Health Care

Among declines, sales at health and personal care stores dropped by the most in almost a year, while receipts at apparel and sporting goods and hobby stores also fell. Restaurants posted a 0.3% drop, also the largest in almost a year.

Filling-station receipts increased 0.7%, the report showed. The retail figures aren’t adjusted for price changes, so sales could reflect changes in gasoline costs, sales, or both. Separate data on the consumer price index this week showed that gasoline prices rose 1.1% in the month, which could have boosted these figures.

Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales were little changed, following a 0.2% gain the previous month.

The sales data don’t capture all household purchases and tend to be volatile from month to month. Personal-spending figures will offer a fuller picture of U.S. ion in data due Dec. 20.

 

A separate Labor Department report Friday added to signs of muted inflation pressures in the economy. The U.S. import price index rose 0.2% in November from the prior month, matching forecasts, and fell 1.3% from a year earlier. Excluding petroleum, the index was also up 0.2% from the prior month.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-retail-sales-miss-forecasts-135013528.html

 

 

Who you gonna blame? Ghostbusters.

B/A

[Pitcher]

Now that. Bloomberg is in the Presidential race how can you post anything with his name attached to it and think it is remotely unbiased toward the President.   What if Trump had a TV station and posted negative adds about Bloomberg. You wouldn’t trust it now would you.

 

BA, try reporting the true facts.  The economy is no where near a recession. A recession that the Dems and there supporters have been saying is going on NOW.  Do you remember the inverted yield curve and the posts you put up.  Ya nothing happened.  

 

Doom and Gloom BA.  Dems really know how to peddle it when out of power!!!

[bostonangler]

9 hours ago, Pitcher said:

Now that. Bloomberg is in the Presidential race how can you post anything with his name attached to it and think it is remotely unbiased toward the President.   What if Trump had a TV station and posted negative adds about Bloomberg. You wouldn’t trust it now would you.

 

BA, try reporting the true facts.  The economy is no where near a recession. A recession that the Dems and there supporters have been saying is going on NOW.  Do you remember the inverted yield curve and the posts you put up.  Ya nothing happened.  

 

Doom and Gloom BA.  Dems really know how to peddle it when out of power!!!

 

It's not an opinion piece it is just some government issued statistics.... It isn't doom and gloom it shows some increases... Why is everything personal with you guys?

 

B/A

[coorslite21]

The economy in general (many aspects) has been a focal point of Trumps sucess....

 

History tells us it's very hard to oust an incumbent President sitting on a great economy....just the facts.....

 

So what can be done?  Guess you could impeach the bum.....

 

Perhaps the MSM can write enough negative stuff to the point if you hear something a hundred times from different sources...people start to believe the lies...(the economy is tanking!)

 

Hey.....start a war in the ME....watch what happens to the economy then...

 

So no doubt in these partisan times.....every effort will be made to unseat Trump.....even if it's harmful to the country....

 

Just how it is these days.....

CL

.

[coorslite21]

1 hour ago, bostonangler said:

 

Why is everything personal with you guys?

 

B/A

 

Said the cat who ate the canary!

[bostonangler]

This is from FOX NEWS..... Does this make it more legit?

 

 

Lackluster retail sales in November signal sluggish start to key holiday season

The critical holiday shopping season is off to a sluggish start in the U.S.

In November, which includes key shopping dates like Black Friday, retail sales rose less than expected, reigniting jitters that despite a strong labor market the record-long economic expansion is beginning to cool down.

New figures published by the Commerce Department on Friday revealed that retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent last month, down from 0.4 percent in October. Excluding the more volatile measures of autos and gas, sales were flat.

 

The U.S. consumer has remained relatively resilient, even as uncertainties from the U.S.-China trade war continue to rattle markets. But Thanksgiving fell on the fourth Thursday in November this year, the last possible date it could be, making this holiday shopping season the shortest since 2013. (Cyber Monday also fell in December this year, likely contributing to the lackluster report).

Parts of the country were also hit with a brutal snowstorm, which possibly discouraged some spending.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist Robert Frick said the report indicates “more consumer caution,” though he noted that consumers are still spending enough to keep powering the economy.

Still, the report also included some good news. Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers, which account for about 20 percent of total retail sales, ticked up by 0.5 percent, while sales at electronics and appliance stores rose 0.7 percent, the most since July. Gas station sales advanced 0.7 percent.

Online sales accounted for a large swath of spending, posting a 0.8 percent gain last month. According to the latest data from Adobe Analytics, online holiday sales were up 14.1 percent from the year-ago period.

The economy expanded at a 2.1 percent annualized pace in the third quarter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lackluster-retail-sales-november-signal-180331025.html

 

B/A

[md11fr8dawg]

Fox got the report from Yahoo if your link is correct. Thus yeah it Damn sure could be fake news. And I take things that Fox reports with a grain of salt at times, especially when it doesn't pass the logic smell test.

[bostonangler]

https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf?mod=article_inline

[bostonangler]

Someone negged a report put out by Wilbur Ross' agency? 

 

B/A

[umbertino]

 

Thanks for sharing, B/A