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Go Iraq Part 7


6ly410
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From 6ly410

August was good to us and Sept even better.

 

on Saturday, August 31, 2019, exceeded the share of the Kurdistan region in the federal budget for the current year more than 17%, indicating that the regionexceeded its highest share of history. 

Parliamentary Finance: The imminent entry of the oil and gas law into the legislation .. And reveal its political dimensions

Release date:: 2019/8/31 21:46 • 2 read times

http://alforatnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=209470

 

A member of the Finance Committee revealed that the imminent entry into force of the oil and gas law.

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1 hour ago, Master Oogway said:

In your opinion, what is the one key event needed to happen to push the RV/RI through?

For me, Iraq went on the clock when they were granted Article 8 compliance. This allows them to get their currency out internationally.  The Key now is in the Oil and Gas Law, like Adam and Jaygo indicated. August brought us a lot of deal making. Just because the GOI is not in session does not mean things are not getting done. In many cases there is more getting done than when they are in session.  It is all about the MONEY and OIL is MONEY. Getting 17% of the budget was a big deal and now it is done. Determining how much each person gets is the question because the census does not take place until 2020. This could be accomplished by using the election results by area (44.85% took part/men and women). You could easily do a statistical analysis to determine a relative value that could be adjusted after to 2020 census is taken. Long answer but I wanted you to know where i was coming from on this. 

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From SocialDinar

Excellent example of stats and info

 

Poverty rate in Iraqi Kurdistan decreases to 5.5% in 2018: official

Posted on September 4, 2019 by Editorial Staff in Economy, People, Politics

 

A poor man takes his free meal at Erbil mosque during Ramadan, Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, May 6, 2019. Photo: Rudaw

SULAIMANI, Iraq’s Kurdistan region,— Director of the Sulaimani Statistics Directorate Mahmoud Osman said on Tuesday that the poverty rate decreased to 5.5 percent in the oil-rich Iraqi Kurdistan region in 2018, representing a significant drop from just several years ago, but still above pre-2014 levels.

In Sulaimani governorate, it was 4.5 percent.

In 2013, the poverty rate was 2 percent in Sulaimanigovernorate and 3 percent across the whole Kurdistan region, compared with more than 18 percent in most of the other Iraqi governorates, Osman told NRT TV.

However, conditions changed dramatically as a result of the financial crisis. By 2016, the poverty rate had spiked to 16 percent and unemployment reached 14 percent.

In 2018, the poverty rate was almost a third of what it was two years earlier. Unemployment has also declined to 9 percent.

“Most unemployed [people] are women…85 percent of women are outside the workforce. In contrast, 70 percent of men are in the workforce,” he said.

Life expectancy is 75 years old. The average family size, including parents and children, was 5.5 across the Kurdistan Region and 4.5 in Sulaimani, he added.

Kurdistan considered as the most corrupted part of Iraq. According to Kurdish lawmakers and leaked documents billions of dollars are missing from Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil revenues.

According to local and international analysts the lack of control mechanisms in Iraqi Kurdistan makes it a paradise for illegal financial activities by the Kurdish ruling leaders.

The two ruling families of Barzani and Talabani, have as been routinely accused by critics of amassing huge wealth from oil business for the families instead of serving the population.

 

https://ekurd.net/poverty-rate-iraqi-kurdistan-2019-09-04

Edited by ChuckFinley
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Here would be a rough example of how to determine population.

Because of how Iraq is structured you should also consider density.

I feel they could get a good sample size based on Election and the fact they have a good idea of family size. There is more data out there that they could easily calculate a rough estimate. 

 

How to determine population and survey sample size?

 February, 2013   Gert Van Dessel   Market Research  742 comments
How to determine population and survey sample size?
 

A survey can only be truly valuable when it’s reliable and representative for your business. However, determining the ideal survey sample size and population can prove tricky. In other words, who will you be surveying and how many people? No idea? No worries. We’re here to help!

 

Say you’re a market research manager at a furniture company and you are planning to launch a new furniture line by the end of 2016. However, before you launch the new line you wish to conduct an online survey on whether your line ‘Fall – 2016’ is more or less likely to be a hit or miss on the European Union (EU) market. So far, so good. Yet, the following question will almost instantly arise: “What is the population that I would like to survey?”. Or, who do you need to survey to gain valuable insights in the success of your new furniture line? In this case the answer is rather straightforward. Assuming that you are launching the new line on the European market, that minors do not buy furniture and that your furniture is reasonably priced, your population consists of all adults in the EU.

What is the survey sample size?

For obvious reasons it is impossible to survey those (roughly) 400 million adults in the EU. A sample of adults living in the EU offers the solution for this issue. A sample is a selection of respondents chosen in such a way that they represent the total population as good as possible. However, instantly a new question comes to the forefront: “How many people should my sample consist of?”. Using a correct survey sample size is crucial for your research. After all, a sample that is too big will lead to the waste of precious resources such as time and money, while a sample that is too small will not allow you to gain reliable insights.

So, how large should your sample be? Should you survey 1%, 5%, 10%, … of the adult citizens in the EU? Well, this depends largely on how accurate you want your survey data to be. In other words, how closely you want your results to match those of the entire population. There are two measures that affect the accurateness of the data.

  • First of all there is the margin of error (or confidence intervals). In short, this is the positive and negative deviation you allow on your survey results for the sample. Or, in other words, the deviation between the opinions of your respondents and the opinion of the entire population. An example will shed some light on this statistical explanation. Suppose you set your margin of error on 5%. If – let’s hope so! – 90% of your survey respondents like the ‘Fall 2016’ line, a 5% margin of error means that you can be ‘sure’ that between 85% (90%-5) and 95% (90%+5) of the entire population actually likes the ‘Fall 2016’ line.
  • Second there is the confidence level. This tells you how often the percentage of the population that likes the ‘Fall 2016’ line actually lies within the boundaries of the margin of error. Or, following on our previous example, it tells you how sure you can be that between 85% and 95% of the population likes the ‘Fall 2016’ campaign. Suppose you chose the 95% confidence level – which is pretty much the standard in quantitative research1 – then in 95% of the time between 85% and 95% of the population likes the ‘Fall 2016’ line2.

How many respondents does your survey require?

Once you have decided how accurate you want your sample data to be, you can start calculating how many respondents (people who have completely filled in the survey or completes as we call them at CheckMarket) you actually need.

Below you find an indicative table on how to calculate your number of completes. Remember that your population consist of approximately 400 million adults in the EU. As a consequence, the appropriate number of completes will be found on the last row of the table below. Depending on the confidence level and the margin of error, the number of completes will vary. As we chose a margin of error of 5% and a confidence level of 95% for our ‘Fall 2016’ campaign, you need approximately 400 completes (it is advisable to round to the nearest hundred) for your sample.

Alternatively, on the CheckMarket website, you find an easy sample size calculator to calculate the number of completes…

estimate_population_survey_sample

 

What about response rate?

Before you start sending out your survey to 400 respondents, remember there is such a thing as response rate. Response rate is the ratio of respondents that fill in the questionnaire they received compared to the total number of surveys you send out. For instance, if you send out your survey to 400 people and you receive 200 filled in surveys, your response rate is 50%.

For an online survey, conventionally, a response rate of 20% is considered as a good response rate, while a 30% response rate is considered to be really really good. As we calculated that we need 400 completes, this means that you will definitely have to send the survey to more than 400 people in order to reach those 400 completes. Obviously, you cannot predict beforehand what response rate you will achieve. However, assuming that your survey will achieve a response rate of 20%, we divide the objective of 400 completes by a response rate of 20%. As a consequence, you will have to send your survey to approximately 2.000 adults in the EU.

 

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Here is one a little more detailed on population estimation.

 

5.1 Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts

What Is the Difference between an Estimate, a Projection, and a Forecast?

A population estimate is a calculation of the size of a population for a year between census periods or for the current year. There are two types of estimation techniques: inter-census and post-census.

  1. An inter-census estimation is for a date between two census takings and usually takes the results of the two censuses into account.
  2. post-census estimate is typically conducted for the current year.

Estimates involve the use of data that are based on the following information:

  • Components of population change, including migration, fertility, and mortality
  • Census results
  • Information that reflects change in population size such as the number of housing units, postal or mailing addresses, registered voters, school enrollment, and users of metered water and other utilities.

A projection is a calculation of the size of the population for a future date in time. Population information for past, present, and future conditions can be used to make a projection about the population. While estimations tend to calculate the total population size of a locale, projections calculate the total population size as well as the size of various segments of the population. For example, the population cohort projection method can be used to calculate the population size of males and females by 5-year age groups. The accuracy of estimation and projection tools is based on the rules and assumptions that are embodied in the method used.

A forecast is a projection that includes judgment statements concerning the future. Forecasting requires knowledge about past and present social, economic, and demographic trends. Planners who choose to forecast may modify the data employed in a projection to reflect their judgment of future trends. For example, if planners expect births to decline in the future, they can modify the age-specific fertility rates when projecting population by age and sex. The tools covered in Lessons 5-8 do not include population forecasting. Population estimations and projections are based on the assumptions of the tools rather than judgments of future trends. In this case, it is much easier to explain the assumptions than it is to justify personal judgments about future conditions.

Estimates and projections can be for de jure (usual resident) or de facto (physically present) populations. In most cases, they are based on de facto populations. This data can be divided into two categories:

Direct
information comes from census data and information on births, deaths, and migration.

5.2 Estimation and Projection Guidelines

Estimation and Projection Guidelines

The quality of information and data for a given locale, as well as the ability of the data to meet the basic assumptions of the analytic method are key to performing accurate estimates or projections. Shryock and Siegel (1973) and Morrison (1971) developed the following guidelines for performing population estimations and projections:

  1. More accurate estimates can generally be made for an entire country than for geographic sub-divisions of a country. It is easier to obtain migration information at the national level since international migration is usually recorded when individuals and families enter a country. This is not the case, however, for cities, towns, and districts, where migration information is collected as part of a census every 10 years.
  2. More accurate estimates and projections can generally be made for the total population of an area than for the demographic characteristics of the population. The census is the only data source available to project population by select attributes such as age, sex, and occupation. More information sources are available to estimate or project the size of the total population. When projecting or estimating total population size, it is possible to use several tools that are based on different information sources and compare the results.
  3. Direct data are preferred to indirect data. Population information that is based on the components of population change such as births, deaths, and migration, and methods that parallel demographic processes, may produce more accurate estimations and projections.
  4. An estimate or projection should always be checked by comparing it with another estimate or projection that employs an equally accurate or more accurate method.
  5. The poorer the data quality and the longer the projection period, the less reliable are the results. 20-year projections are not as reliable as those of 5–10 years. In addition, economic activities can influence in- or out-migration and lead to the rapid growth or decline of a locale. The environment also influences population change. For example, droughts and floods can lead to major reductions in population size.
  6. The most accurate projection is usually based on a combination of methods. For example, use two methods whose assumptions support available information sources, and take an average of the two.
  7. Never take for granted that a data series is correct, regardless of the agency providing it. As discussed in Lesson 4, always review a series of data and information over time to be sure that it is consistent.
  8. If a series of census information changes drastically over time, determine the cause. In some cases, census boundaries or data collection methods may have changed, rather than the actual size of the population.

5.3 Estimation Tools

Estimation Tools

This section demonstrates how to calculate two types of population estimations: the population size of a locale between census periods and the current population of a locale. You may use Equation 5-1 to estimate the midyear population between census periods, as well as the current population, provided that reliable information is available on the number of births, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants.

Equation 5-1
Components of Demographic Change

A

This equation will provide the most accurate population estimate. However, data on all three components of demographic change are rarely available. Therefore, it is necessary to use other estimation methods. The methods presented in this lesson assume that reliable information is not available on the components of demographic change, but that planners will have access to census data and indirect information that reflects population change. Suggestions for other estimation methods are included at the end of the lesson.

Inter-Census Estimation: Midyear Population

The following estimation method is used primarily to estimate the midyear total population, or a subset of the population of a given locale.

Indirect
data include information that reflect changes in population size, such as school enrollment, housing units, gas and electric meters, employment statistics, tax information, voter registration, and postal addresses.
Assumptions
This method assumes that yearly changes in the population size are equal. It also assumes that population change between the two census periods is linear. Plotting several census periods with time on the horizontal line (X-axis) and population size on the vertical line (Y-axis) results in a straight line between the points.
When to Use this Tool?
This estimation tool is primarily used to calculate the midyear population for vital rates such as the crude birth or death rate, age-specific fertility or death rates, and the general fertility rate.

Equation 5-2 can be used to estimate the population size of a subset of the population, or the total size of a population between census periods.

Equation 5-2
Estimating the population size between two census periods

B

Equation 5-3
Crude Birth Rate

C

For example, in order to calculate the crude birth rate for Durham County, North Carolina for the year 1999, it is necessary to estimate the midyear population for 1999. Equation 5-3 provides the calculation for the crude birth rate.

The date of the census taking for both periods is April 1. The date of the midyear population is July 1. Note that the midyear month is different from the census month. These differences are taken into account when calculatingn. The following example demonstrates Equation 5-2 in estimating the midyear population and the calculation of the crude birth rate.

Example of Equation 5-3

D

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9 minutes ago, 6ly410 said:
Bewildered balloon and do not boggle place your money!
Use the payment card issued by most Iraqi banks and licensed payment companies, and be assured.

Let the anxiety place .. You traveled safely
National campaign to support system" rel="">support the use of payment cards
 

 

 

Education of the masses is definitely taking place! Between these adds and articles about coins and fils, they’re trying to herd the sheep into the banking system for sure

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4 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

For me, Iraq went on the clock when they were granted Article 8 compliance.

Oh my gosh Chuck, I am really behind times. I have been on vacation in Rhode Island and totally missed Iraq being granted Article 8 Compliance. That is what “spot checking” will do for you. 🙄 This is huge news and I have been waiting on this one thing. It’s very important imo. Thanks for pointing it out. 

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#Central Bank #Iraqi Middle East Investment Bank #Currencies #Damaged
Our valued customers ...
In order to provide the best banking services to meet your needs, we would like to inform you that our bank opened a window to replace damaged and damaged banknotes in all branches of the bank in Baghdad and the provinces.
 
 
 

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Arab Islamic Bank is pleased to announce the launch of Islamic financing (in the form of Murabahat) within the initiative of the Central Bank of Iraq to support small and medium enterprises and concessional conditions to contribute to the revitalization of the economic movement to develop industrial, commercial and agricultural projects for all citizens, and our bank is ready to meet you ...

5.PNG

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