Go Iraq Part 7

[6ly410]

Asia Islamic Bank for Investment and Finance seeks to provide the best banking services to our valued customers using the latest methods and advanced technological means according to advanced professional standards.

 

 

[navira]

5 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

Here is one a little more detailed on population estimation.

 

5.1 Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts

What Is the Difference between an Estimate, a Projection, and a Forecast?

A population estimate is a calculation of the size of a population for a year between census periods or for the current year. There are two types of estimation techniques: inter-census and post-census.

1. An inter-census estimation is for a date between two census takings and usually takes the results of the two censuses into account.
2. A post-census estimate is typically conducted for the current year.

Estimates involve the use of data that are based on the following information:

• Components of population change, including migration, fertility, and mortality
• Census results
• Information that reflects change in population size such as the number of housing units, postal or mailing addresses, registered voters, school enrollment, and users of metered water and other utilities.

A projection is a calculation of the size of the population for a future date in time. Population information for past, present, and future conditions can be used to make a projection about the population. While estimations tend to calculate the total population size of a locale, projections calculate the total population size as well as the size of various segments of the population. For example, the population cohort projection method can be used to calculate the population size of males and females by 5-year age groups. The accuracy of estimation and projection tools is based on the rules and assumptions that are embodied in the method used.

A forecast is a projection that includes judgment statements concerning the future. Forecasting requires knowledge about past and present social, economic, and demographic trends. Planners who choose to forecast may modify the data employed in a projection to reflect their judgment of future trends. For example, if planners expect births to decline in the future, they can modify the age-specific fertility rates when projecting population by age and sex. The tools covered in Lessons 5-8 do not include population forecasting. Population estimations and projections are based on the assumptions of the tools rather than judgments of future trends. In this case, it is much easier to explain the assumptions than it is to justify personal judgments about future conditions.

Estimates and projections can be for de jure (usual resident) or de facto (physically present) populations. In most cases, they are based on de facto populations. This data can be divided into two categories:

Direct

information comes from census data and information on births, deaths, and migration.

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5.2 Estimation and Projection Guidelines

Estimation and Projection Guidelines

The quality of information and data for a given locale, as well as the ability of the data to meet the basic assumptions of the analytic method are key to performing accurate estimates or projections. Shryock and Siegel (1973) and Morrison (1971) developed the following guidelines for performing population estimations and projections:

1. More accurate estimates can generally be made for an entire country than for geographic sub-divisions of a country. It is easier to obtain migration information at the national level since international migration is usually recorded when individuals and families enter a country. This is not the case, however, for cities, towns, and districts, where migration information is collected as part of a census every 10 years.
2. More accurate estimates and projections can generally be made for the total population of an area than for the demographic characteristics of the population. The census is the only data source available to project population by select attributes such as age, sex, and occupation. More information sources are available to estimate or project the size of the total population. When projecting or estimating total population size, it is possible to use several tools that are based on different information sources and compare the results.
3. Direct data are preferred to indirect data. Population information that is based on the components of population change such as births, deaths, and migration, and methods that parallel demographic processes, may produce more accurate estimations and projections.
4. An estimate or projection should always be checked by comparing it with another estimate or projection that employs an equally accurate or more accurate method.
5. The poorer the data quality and the longer the projection period, the less reliable are the results. 20-year projections are not as reliable as those of 5–10 years. In addition, economic activities can influence in- or out-migration and lead to the rapid growth or decline of a locale. The environment also influences population change. For example, droughts and floods can lead to major reductions in population size.
6. The most accurate projection is usually based on a combination of methods. For example, use two methods whose assumptions support system" rel="">support available information sources, and take an average of the two.
7. Never take for granted that a data series is correct, regardless of the agency providing it. As discussed in Lesson 4, always review a series of data and information over time to be sure that it is consistent.
8. If a series of census information changes drastically over time, determine the cause. In some cases, census boundaries or data collection methods may have changed, rather than the actual size of the population.

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5.3 Estimation Tools

Estimation Tools

This section demonstrates how to calculate two types of population estimations: the population size of a locale between census periods and the current population of a locale. You may use Equation 5-1 to estimate the midyear population between census periods, as well as the current population, provided that reliable information is available on the number of births, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants.

Equation 5-1
Components of Demographic Change

This equation will provide the most accurate population estimate. However, data on all three components of demographic change are rarely available. Therefore, it is necessary to use other estimation methods. The methods presented in this lesson assume that reliable information is not available on the components of demographic change, but that planners will have access to census data and indirect information that reflects population change. Suggestions for other estimation methods are included at the end of the lesson.

Inter-Census Estimation: Midyear Population

The following estimation method is used primarily to estimate the midyear total population, or a subset of the population of a given locale.

Indirect

data include information that reflect changes in population size, such as school enrollment, housing units, gas and electric meters, employment statistics, tax information, voter registration, and postal addresses.

Assumptions

This method assumes that yearly changes in the population size are equal. It also assumes that population change between the two census periods is linear. Plotting several census periods with time on the horizontal line (X-axis) and population size on the vertical line (Y-axis) results in a straight line between the points.

When to Use this Tool?

This estimation tool is primarily used to calculate the midyear population for vital rates such as the crude birth or death rate, age-specific fertility or death rates, and the general fertility rate.

Equation 5-2 can be used to estimate the population size of a subset of the population, or the total size of a population between census periods.

Equation 5-2
Estimating the population size between two census periods

Equation 5-3
Crude Birth Rate

For example, in order to calculate the crude birth rate for Durham County, North Carolina for the year 1999, it is necessary to estimate the midyear population for 1999. Equation 5-3 provides the calculation for the crude birth rate.

The date of the census taking for both periods is April 1. The date of the midyear population is July 1. Note that the midyear month is different from the census month. These differences are taken into account when calculatingn. The following example demonstrates Equation 5-2 in estimating the midyear population and the calculation of the crude birth rate.

Example of Equation 5-3

Interesting how they calculate population size using the formula...it's like calculating pressure where P=F/A...haha

[lmb4321]

2 minutes ago, navira said:

Been drinking champagne by the beach...Just having a good time bro haha

 

Put your feet in the sand, enjoy the sunset and the Champagne..

Cheers navira ....Septmebro.....

 

 

[6ly410]

A savings account is the perfect solution to keep a portion of your money for later use when you need it in the future.

[navira]

3 minutes ago, 6ly410 said:

cheers bro see u in Maui soon haha

Will be there bro, haha

[navira]

1 minute ago, lmb4321 said:

 

Put your feet in the sand, enjoy the sunset and the Champagne..

Cheers navira ....Septmebro.....

 

 

Cheers bro

[lmb4321]

navira, ...I think late September we will be making plans

for a Luau in Maui..probably in October.....drinking Mai Tai's , watching the

Sunset with alot of our DV Brothers and Sisters....

Cheers Bro....👍

[navira]

3 minutes ago, lmb4321 said:

navira, ...I think late September we will be making plans

for a Luau in Maui..probably in October.....drinking Mai Tai's , watching the

Sunset with alot of our DV Brothers and Sisters....

Cheers Bro....👍

That would be nice bro...Cheers 

[6ly410]

this is moving bro wow

[DinarThug]

Reposted From The Previous Page - With Additional New Commentary Beneath ...

 

ChuckFinley

• Senior Member
• 
• Platinum VIP
•  

2 hours ago, DinarThug said:

Going Back Partly To The Previous Page - Brother Chuck Now Has 15 Of The Last 24 Previous Posts !  

 

 

And He’s Clearly Doing More Than Twice The Work Of Those Lazy A$$ Bro’s ...

 

     

 

 

**********************

 

 

New Commentary ...

 

 

But I’m Glad That This Post At Least Immediately - (Although Perhaps Just Temporally) Awoke The Bro’s For Perhaps Maybe A Nanosecond ...

 

(Notice From The Previous Page How They Instantly Responded)

 

     

 

 

U Go Bro’s - And Welcome Back ! 

 

  

Edited September 5, 2019 by DinarThug

[ChuckFinley]

Bros better get on it. Worked from home yesterday. As everyone can see I was working on getting out of my job. 

 

See you met my cousin CN. 

[ChuckFinley]

6 hours ago, Bama Girl said:

Oh my gosh Chuck, I am really behind times. I have been on vacation in Rhode Island and totally missed Iraq being granted Article 8 Compliance. That is what “spot checking” will do for you. 🙄 This is huge news and I have been waiting on this one thing. It’s very important imo. Thanks for pointing it out. 

Same here. To me that was the starting point. I am hoping for September to close this out. 

[ChuckFinley]

4 hours ago, navira said:

Interesting how they calculate population size using the formula...it's like calculating pressure where P=F/A...haha

Pretty cool. I was a Science/Math major. These would be examples of different types of estimates. Now a days you just insert numbers where we took raw data and built it from there. 

[ChuckFinley]

3 hours ago, navira said:

That would be nice bro...Cheers 

 

3 hours ago, 6ly410 said:

this is moving bro wow

Glad you Bros are back. I was keeping the train going. 

[Half Crazy Runner]

10 hours ago, Bama Girl said:

Oh my gosh Chuck, I am really behind times. I have been on vacation in Rhode Island and totally missed Iraq being granted Article 8 Compliance. That is what “spot checking” will do for you. 🙄 This is huge news and I have been waiting on this one thing. It’s very important imo. Thanks for pointing it out. 

 

😲 What?? I haven’t even been on vacation and I totally missed that too!!!  

Was it posted in the news section...?

I’m always missing things when the titles of threads get changed with each new news article that gets posted after an old one 😐

[gregp]

3 minutes ago, Half Crazy Runner said:

 

😲 What?? I haven’t even been on vacation and I totally missed that too!!!  

Was it posted in the news section...?

I’m always missing things when the titles of threads get changed with each new news article that gets posted after an old one 😐

 

Yup, haven’t seen it either.  It was mentioned in a roundabout way, but exited on the third turn and haven’t heard anything since.  But it’s there, and it’s coming.  

[Bama Girl]

3 minutes ago, Half Crazy Runner said:

😲 What?? I haven’t even been on vacation and I totally missed that too!!!  

Was it posted in the news section...?

I’m always missing things when the titles of threads get changed with each new news article that gets posted after an old one 😐

Same here, I’ve been searching for the article(s) but so far, have not been successful. I would really appreciate someone posting the link. I would love to read it. Thanks in advance for any help. 😊

[DIAMOND]

now now ladies clam down an look under article 4 consulation articles 

[6ly410]

 

[6ly410]

[6ly410]

Lets go bros haha 

[ChuckFinley]

14 hours ago, Bama Girl said:

Oh my gosh Chuck, I am really behind times. I have been on vacation in Rhode Island and totally missed Iraq being granted Article 8 Compliance. That is what “spot checking” will do for you. 🙄 This is huge news and I have been waiting on this one thing. It’s very important imo. Thanks for pointing it out. 

 

3 hours ago, Half Crazy Runner said:

 

😲 What?? I haven’t even been on vacation and I totally missed that too!!!  

Was it posted in the news section...?

I’m always missing things when the titles of threads get changed with each new news article that gets posted after an old one 😐

I will try to find the link. It was on or about 28 July. CL posted a link to the whole document and Laid Back and I were discussing it. Maybe one of our reads has the answer close at hand. 

[ChuckFinley]

11 hours ago, navira said:

That would be nice bro...Cheers 

 

11 hours ago, 6ly410 said:

this is moving bro wow

Glad you Bros are back. I was keeping the train going. 

[ChuckFinley]

16 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said:

 

I will try to find the link. It was on or about 28 July. CL posted a link to the whole document and Laid Back and I were discussing it. Maybe one of our reads has the answer close at hand. 

I am on a cell phone trying to do this so bare with me. Go to Go Iraq Part 4 page 11and start there. 

[txwWrestling]

So....even though it seems like we are getting close....From all the news..to be honest 45% I have no CLUE what they are talking about....Is Sept a 50% chance?