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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq


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On 7/23/2019 at 6:40 AM, WheresmyRV? said:

I'm kinda wondering if they never had the meeting and that they may have put it off to a later date. :confused::confused:

It’s always possible...but you have to ask abiut timing with UNSC on the ground first time in 15 years...what role will they play in determining conditions ripe for investment and rv? Or rate trigger pull!....I say a very big role 

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Well, OK, HERE we ALL are five (5) DAZE later AND...........................................

 

STILL Nuttin'!!!

 

:facepalm3:   :facepalm3:   :facepalm3:

 

image.thumb.png.2a625225b7bbbfa1310af9c61a9221bf.png

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRQ

 

image.thumb.png.108be888042d76aba41a2502c2dddb7d.png

 

https://www.imf.org/external/

 

Well, OK, THEE Coast MUST Be CLEAR, THEE French ARE HERE (at THEE IMF)!!!

 

AND......................................................................

 

Arnaud Costinot (French???!!!) WANTS TO Tax Robots To Level The Playing Field!!!

 

:facepalm3:   :facepalm3:   :facepalm3:

 

  :lmao:     :lmao:     :lmao:

 

OUR Fearless Leader SEEMED to Indicate TODAY the ABSENCE OF THEE "printed" IMF SBA Report COULD BE A POSITIVE INDICATOR OF THEE Bicraqi Iraqi RECEIVING THE GO AHEAD.

 

So We ALL Wait AND See.

 

I'm leaning toward A POSITIVE INDICATOR!!!

 

YYYEEEAAAHHH BBBAAABBBYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

In The Mean Time........................................................................

 

The "Standard" "Disclaimer" Applies..........................................

 

AND (of course)..........................................................................

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY, READY WHEN YOU ARE BROTHER (OR SISTER) - LET 'ER BUCK!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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2 minutes ago, 10 YEARS LATER said:

Taxing Robots to level the playing field ? They’re not gonna stand for that....” Sky Net “ will have something to Say about this ! 

 

10YL+6&:rocking-chair:

 

:salute: !!!10 YEARS LATER!!! :salute:

 

WHAT, pray tell, WILL happen WHEN the "robots" in THIS Country get "taxed" WITHOUT "representation"???!!!

 

:o   :o   :o

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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21 hours ago, screwball said:

We may see it in August...

 

21 hours ago, screwball said:

Second last article report came out August 9th...2017

 

21 hours ago, screwball said:

Just in time for September or October rate change! LOL....kidding no idea really!

I could do August. The light at the end of the tunnel is nearing. Regardless how you look at this, there is just not much more to check off. 

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13 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said:

 

 

I could do August. The light at the end of the tunnel is nearing. Regardless how you look at this, there is just not much more to check off. 

 

So long as the light at the end of the tunnel isn’t a train 🚂 we should be okay 👌 

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2 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

 

 

I could do August. The light at the end of the tunnel is nearing. Regardless how you look at this, there is just not much more to check off. 

Exactly I don’t think so! After all these years we are finally in the hot seat! Best position for years

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WOWZERS!!!

 

STILL Nuttin'!!!

 

image.thumb.png.5a104df1ddff6d78d8473a2a508ca7a8.png

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRQ

 

image.png.505ce82c246a67fe4d346637d54c2c42.png

https://www.imf.org/external/what/whatsnewenglish/what.aspx

 

NO News IS GOOD News???!!!

 

:backflip:   :backflip:   :backflip:

 

YYYEEEAAAHHH BBBAAABBBYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

!!!SUDDENLY!!!

 

Go Moola Nova (YEAH AND YEE HAW, BABY, READY WHEN YOU ARE BROTHER (OR SISTER) - LET 'ER BUCK!!!)!!!

:rodeo:   :pirateship:

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I just checked the IMF home page and as always put Iraq in the search bar . A detailed Financial Status report came up ,dated June 30 ,2019 that I had never seen before . I can't make hide nor tail of it ,but it's are about quotas ,SDR and such 

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21 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

 

 

I could do August. The light at the end of the tunnel is nearing. Regardless how you look at this, there is just not much more to check off. 

Well, I asked them personally not to announce it until August because that is the month of my birthday. I explained I wanted to throw a huge birthday party and invite all my “friends”. They agreed with my request. 😋💪😆😆

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1 hour ago, dinarham said:

I just checked the IMF home page and as always put Iraq in the search bar . A detailed Financial Status report came up ,dated June 30 ,2019 that I had never seen before . I can't make hide nor tail of it ,but it's are about quotas ,SDR and such 

 

Kind of a WTF moment, huh ? As always, they keep the suspense going.  Appreciate the info dinarham :tiphat:

 

10YL+6&:rocking-chair:

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5 hours ago, fancy said:

Thanks Synopsis.  I believe there is a lot going on behind the scenes that they are holding close to the vest, waiting for all of the pieces to line up, then it ALL comes out suddenly! No turning back!

 

:twothumbs: I Agree, Fancy, AND The Very Best Of Your Weekend To You!!! :tiphat:

 

I REALLY think !!!SUDDENLY!!! is THEE "key" HERE!!!

 

TOO many shenanigans OTHERWISE!!!

 

LIKIE THEY are NOT WELL Practiced At THAT!!! :lmao:   :lmao:   :lmao:

 

:facepalm3:   :facepalm3:   :facepalm3:

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/07/26/pr19301-iraq-imf-executive-board-concludes-2019-article-iv-consultation-with-iraq

 

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq

July 26, 2019

On July 19, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Iraq.

An improved security situation and the recovery in oil prices have improved near-term vulnerabilities. Large fiscal and current account surpluses—around 8 and 6 percent of GDP, respectively—were recorded in 2018, allowing the government to retire domestic debt and accumulate fiscal buffers. Gross international reserves reached $65 billion by end-2018.

However, post-war reconstruction and economic recovery have been slow. Non-oil GDP rose by only 0.8 percent year-on-year in 2018 in a context of weak execution of reconstruction and other public investment. Overall GDP contracted by around 0.6 percent as oil production was cut to comply with the OPEC+ agreement.

The 2019 budget implies a sizable fiscal loosening that will reverse the recent reduction in vulnerabilities. Current spending is expected to increase by 27 percent year-on-year, in part due to a higher public sector wage bill, while revenues will be dampened by the abolition of non-oil taxes. As a result, the budget is projected to shift to a deficit of 4 percent of GDP in 2019, and reserves are projected to decline.

The fiscal and external positions are expected to continue to deteriorate over the medium term absent policy changes—with reserves falling below adequate levels and fiscal buffers eroded. Although the level of public debt will remain sustainable, gross fiscal financing needs will increase. Non-oil GDP growth is projected to reach 5½ in 2019 but subside over the medium term.

In a context of highly volatile oil prices, the major risk to the outlook is a fall in oil prices which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt. Geopolitical tensions, the potential for social unrest in a context of weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption pose further risks.

Executive Board Assessment [2]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They were encouraged by the recent strengthening of Iraq’s economy but recognized that the country continues to face daunting challenges. Social conditions remain harsh, post-war reconstruction progress is slow, development needs are large, and institutional weaknesses are significant. Volatile oil prices and a difficult regional and geopolitical environment pose additional difficulties. Directors encouraged the authorities to seize the opportunity presented by the improved security situation and higher oil prices to implement policies and structural reforms aimed at ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability, tackling long-standing social problems, and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth.

Directors emphasized that building a robust fiscal framework is essential to maintain fiscal and macroeconomic stability and strengthen buffers. They encouraged the authorities to adopt a risk‑ and rules-based approach to fiscal policy as part of broader reforms to manage oil revenue more effectively, reduce tendencies for procyclicality, and shift to a more growth-friendly composition of expenditure. Directors supported scaling up reconstruction and development expenditure gradually in line with improving absorptive capacity. They underscored the need to strengthen public financial management to ensure public spending is appropriately monitored and to reduce vulnerabilities to corruption. In this context, Directors welcomed the newly adopted General Financial Management Law and encouraged its full implementation.

Directors emphasized that gradual fiscal adjustment, including containing current primary spending and boosting non-oil revenues is essential for maintaining fiscal and debt sustainability. They recommended that spending measures should give priority to containing the growth in wage bill and lowering subsidies to the electricity sector. Directors emphasized that the poorest and the most vulnerable must be protected from the adjustment process.

Directors underscored that an overhaul of the banking sector is necessary to maintain financial stability. They encouraged the authorities to restructure the large state-owned banks, enhance their supervision, and implement other reforms to increase financial intermediation. Directors highlighted the benefits of increasing financial inclusion, especially for the SME sector, which has a large potential to absorb entrants to the labor market.

Directors agreed that building public institutions and enhancing governance is key for success, and highlighted the scope for Fund capacity development to support these efforts. They welcomed progress in developing an anti-corruption framework and called for further modifications to the legal regime for combatting corruption coupled with stronger coordination between the relevant government agencies, while continuing to strengthen the framework for Anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). Directors also recommended strengthening Public Investment Management framework to ensure that spending is well directed and that donor funds targeting reconstruction are put to the most efficient use.

Directors looked forward to continued close engagement between the authorities and the Fund in the context of post program monitoring.

 

Iraq: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2015–24

(Percent of GDP, except were indicated)

 
               

Projections

 
 

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Economic growth and prices

                   

Real GDP (percentage change)

2.5

15.2

-2.5

-0.6

4.6

5.3

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.1

Non-oil real GDP (percentage change)

-14.4

1.3

-0.6

0.8

5.4

5.0

4.1

3.4

2.7

2.7

GDP deflator (percentage change)

-26.1

-13.4

14.6

15.4

-4.5

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.1

3.3

GDP per capita (US$)

5,047

4,843

5,263

5,882

5,728

6,017

6,172

6,326

6,486

6,666

GDP (in ID trillion)

207.2

206.7

231.0

265.0

264.8

285.4

300.4

315.9

332.3

350.4

Non-oil GDP (in ID trillion)

137.3

138.3

140.8

145.6

158.1

173.2

188.1

202.8

217.1

232.6

GDP (in US$ billion)

177.7

175.2

195.5

224.2

224.1

241.5

254.1

267.3

281.1

296.5

Oil production (mbpd)

3.72

4.63

4.47

4.41

4.59

4.84

4.93

5.01

5.10

5.18

Oil exports (mbpd)

3.35

3.79

3.80

3.86

4.03

4.25

4.33

4.40

4.47

4.55

Iraq oil export prices (US$ pb) 1/

45.9

35.6

48.7

65.2

56.0

55.8

54.9

54.4

54.4

54.8

Consumer price inflation (percentage change; end of period)

2.3

-1.5

0.2

-0.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Consumer price inflation (percentage change; average)

1.4

0.5

0.1

0.4

0.8

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

                     

National Accounts

                   

Gross domestic investment

24.9

20.8

16.7

12.9

18.8

16.7

16.0

15.6

15.6

15.4

Of which: public

15.6

11.5

8.3

5.3

10.6

8.4

7.5

7.0

6.8

6.6

Gross domestic consumption

81.2

87.0

80.8

79.1

84.5

85.4

86.8

87.9

88.6

89.6

Of which: public

22.6

22.6

21.8

21.2

26.5

26.3

26.4

26.2

26.2

26.3

Gross national savings

18.4

12.5

18.6

19.8

13.6

12.5

11.7

11.1

10.3

9.4

Of which: public

3.1

-2.0

7.0

13.4

6.5

5.2

4.1

3.2

1.8

0.8

Saving - Investment balance

-6.5

-8.3

1.8

6.9

-5.2

-4.2

-4.3

-4.6

-5.3

-6.0

                     

Public Finance

                   

Government revenue and grants

30.6

26.8

33.0

39.8

40.5

39.6

37.9

36.5

35.5

34.6

Government oil revenue

27.8

22.9

28.9

36.7

37.2

36.3

34.5

33.1

32.0

31.0

Government non-oil revenue

2.8

4.0

4.2

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

Expenditure, of which:

43.4

40.7

34.6

32.0

44.6

43.1

41.2

40.5

40.5

40.5

Current expenditure

27.8

29.3

26.4

26.7

33.9

34.7

33.6

33.5

33.7

33.9

Capital expenditure

15.6

11.5

8.3

5.3

10.6

8.4

7.5

7.0

6.8

6.6

Overall fiscal balance (including grants)

-12.8

-13.9

-1.6

7.9

-4.1

-3.5

-3.3

-4.0

-5.0

-5.9

Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (percent of non-oil GDP)

-46.5

-43.3

-39.4

-42.4

-56.9

-52.1

-49.2

-47.1

-46.2

-45.3

Adjusted Non-oil primary fiscal balance, accrual basis (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 2/

-44.7

-43.3

-39.4

-40.5

-50.1

-46.0

-43.6

-41.8

-41.0

-40.2

Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, percent of non-oil GDP) 3/

48.9

49.2

46.3

46.2

55.6

51.5

49.1

47.2

46.3

45.5

Adjusted non-oil primary expenditure (excl. KRG, annual real growth, percent) 3/

-24.7

0.9

-4.5

2.8

29.9

-0.6

1.4

1.6

3.1

3.2

                     

Memorandum items

                   

Total government debt (in percent of GDP) 4/

56.2

64.2

58.9

49.3

51.4

50.5

50.6

51.5

53.6

56.4

Total government debt (in US$ billion) 4/

99.9

112.5

115.2

110.4

115.3

121.9

128.5

137.5

150.7

167.3

External government debt (in percent of GDP)

37.2

37.1

35.6

30.6

32.2

31.5

30.5

28.4

26.8

24.9

External government debt (in US$ billion)

66.1

65.0

69.5

68.7

72.2

76.2

77.6

75.8

75.3

73.8

                     

Monetary indicators

                   

Growth in reserve money

-12.0

9.2

-4.4

6.7

2.5

5.4

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.6

Growth in broad money

-9.1

7.1

2.6

2.7

2.5

6.2

5.4

6.0

5.9

5.3

                     

External sector

                   

Current account

-6.5

-8.3

1.8

6.9

-5.2

-4.2

-4.3

-4.6

-5.3

-6.0

Trade balance

-0.1

-1.7

7.6

13.4

3.5

4.1

3.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

Exports of goods

31.8

28.6

34.8

41.2

37.0

36.2

34.4

33.1

32.0

31.2

Imports of goods

-31.9

-30.3

-27.1

-27.8

-33.5

-32.0

-31.2

-31.1

-30.8

-30.7

Overall external balance

-6.7

-3.7

2.5

6.3

-2.5

-1.1

-1.6

-3.5

-3.8

-4.7

Gross reserves (in US$ billion)

54.1

45.5

49.4

64.7

57.2

53.5

48.5

38.8

28.2

14.3

Total GIR (in months of imports of goods and services)

9.3

7.8

7.3

8.0

6.8

6.2

5.5

4.2

2.9

1.4

Exchange rate (dinar per US$; period average)

1,166

1,180

1,182

1,182

1,182

1,182

1,182

1,182

1,182

1,182

Real effective exchange rate (percent change, end of period) 5/

6.5

1.8

-5.1

4.9

Sources: Iraqi authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

1/ Negative price differential of about $3.6 per barrel compared to the average petroleum spot price (average of Brent, West Texas and Dubai oil prices) in 2018-23.

2/ Adjusted to exclude (i) full year estimates of federal government transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government, and (ii) non-oil tax revenues from the KRG to the federal government. In 2014 and 2015, actual transfers were made for only 2 and 5 months, respectively.

3/ Adjusted to exclude full year estimate of federal government transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government. In 2014 and 2015, actual transfers were made for only 2 and 5 months, respectively.

4/ Includes arrears. The debt stock includes legacy arrears to non-Paris Club creditors on which the authorities have requested (but not yet obtained) Paris-Club comparable relief. Implementing comparable terms will substantially reduce debt (e.g. by 15 percent of GDP in 2017).

5/ Positive means appreciation.

 
                                   
 

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .

IMF Communications Department
MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: WAFA AMR

PHONE: +1 202 623-7100EMAIL: MEDIA@IMF.ORG

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