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Updated: oil falls 5% upon settlement, with geopolitical concerns calm


yota691
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37 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

My apologies to anyone who was offended by my post, especially you Rafiki1.

It was not my intention to upset you or anyone else.  If you would like to hear the story of how I almost died 3 years ago and how I’m not in the best of shape, call me. My phone number is available on my profile. If I don’t answer leave me a message because I screen my calls and don’t return calls I don’t recognize.  I’m serious call me and maybe I can set your mind at peace. You are obviously having a hard time.  

The most important thing you have is your health back ... because without that everything is nothing ..

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I will never apologize for what I earned. I worked 12–16 hour days putting myself through school and starting my business.  God Saved me from the abyss of alcoholism and put me in a good church.  I never forgot where I came from and used a healthy portion of my income and my time to give back  I have always believed it is better to make yourself strong mentally, physically, and financially so you can give back.  You can’t help anyone being busted up and living in alcoholism.  

 

Rafiki1 had a valid point and I’m glad he called me on it.  

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Novice,  after I sobered up I lived a very clean lifestyle.  Unfortunately some life choices early on were a ticking time bomb for me. I’m dealing with those consequences but I refuse to be sad or unhappy.  I’m grateful for every day.  

 

You are correct, your health is everything.  

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  • yota691 changed the title to Brent Drops Below $60 Amid Global Stock Market Slide
3 hours ago, Arceo said:

 

Never apologize for your planning and successes. People rise and fall everyday. It’s those that do nothing who should want for more and need to their ass up and get off the canvas. I’m from a hood of suffering so I realize what being part of it takes. And that’s a lot of excuses and bad choices. It Takes a plan and action to try to get out. Great job setting yourself up Pitch. 

Well-stated, Arceo.

 

Ten years sober here, doing well myself.

 

I paid a dear price of sweat equity to get here, and have no apologies to make for it.

 

Pitcher, much respect, man. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Rafiki1 said:

And I want to thank the Orange President for his brilliance about national events. Dayton or wait a minute, Toledo...oh doesn’t matter..Ohio..  

 

Fyi - The Dayton Shooter Was A Leftest Liberal Who Supported Fauxcahontas ! :o 

 

:D  :D  :D 

 

 

Dayton shooter reportedly supported gun control, Elizabeth Warren, and socialism 

 | August 04, 2019 08:00 PM

 

 

More information is being reported on Connor Betts, 24, the deceased gunman who shot and killed nine people and wounded 27 others in a mass shooting early Sunday morning.

 

A Twitter account appearing to belong to Betts showed he supported socialist causes and was a supporter of presidential candidate Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, according to Heavy

The Twitter biography reads, “he/him / anime fan / metalhead / leftist / i’m going to hell and i’m not coming back.” Tweets include praising Satan and "F--- John McCain" after late Arizona Sen. John McCain died.

 

He also reportedly criticized American gun laws, tweeting in 2018, "This is America: Guns on every corner, guns in every house, no freedom but that to kill" and tweeted to Ohio Sen. Rob Portman on the day of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School mass shooting, "@robportman hey rob. How much did they pay you to look the other way? 17 kids are dead. If not now, when?"

 

On the Fourth of July, in response to a tweet on "easy ways to help close detention camps," the account linked to Betts replied, "Cut the fences down. Slice ICE tires. Throw bolt cutters over the fences."

 

Betts reportedly did not want to vote for California Sen. Kamala Harris because "Harris is a cop," but "Warren I’d happily vote for."

 

"I want socialism, and i'll not wait for the idiots to finally come round to understanding," read one tweet.

Betts also exhibited a fascination with the devil, using such hashtags as "#selfie4satan," "#HailSatan," and "@SatanTweeting".

The shooter was shot and killed by police within a minute of starting his attack at a popular bar and restaurant scene in Dayton, Ohio. It appears he also killed his sister and her boyfriend shortly before the attack.

Betts' reported beliefs are different than those tied to the mass shooter who attacked a Walmart in El Paso hours before. In a manifesto that was linked to him, he wrote that he wanted to stop the "Hispanic invasion of Texas," but also adds his bigoted beliefs "predate Trump and his campaign."

 

Unlike Betts, the El Paso shooter surrendered to police and was arrested without incident.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/dayton-shooter-reportedly-supported-gun-control-elizabeth-warren-and-socialism

 

 

Edited by DinarThug
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Despite the reduction of OPEC + production, despite the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf, and despite the existence of economic sanctions on three oil countries, namely Iran, Russia and Venezuela, but oil prices fell. Prompting some to ask what is happening in the oil markets, and whether another reduction is needed by OPEC.

But, looking at the details, we find that what has happened and is happening now seems logical. The picture can be summarized as follows:

There are effects supporting the fall in oil prices, and there are adverse effects supporting the rise in oil prices. The presence of the reduced effects without the presence of the effects of levers will hurt Brent crude prices to about $ 45 a barrel. And the presence of the effects of leverage alone rose Brent crude to about $ 80 a barrel. But the combined effect of all the effects gives prices between $ 60 and $ 65 for Brent crude.

In other words, the effects of the reduction of production and political tension in the Gulf, and sanctions on oil states, and the reduction of stocks are in the price, otherwise these prices have fallen by more than $ 15 a barrel.

The logical question here is: What are these reduced and leveraging effects?

The reduced effects are all related to macroeconomics:

1. Donald Trump's wars: These wars limit global trade, raise costs, and contribute to the global economic slowdown. This slowdown is helping to reduce the growth rates of world demand for oil. We have seen in the past two months how both the International Energy Agency and OPEC reduced their expectations for global oil demand growth after the International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for global economic growth due to trade wars.

2. Low rates of economic growth. Even without trade wars, there has been a slowdown in the growth of the world economy, which in turn, as mentioned earlier, contributes to the reduction of global demand for oil. In addition, the survival of oil prices is reduced means the continued suffering of the economies of oil-exporting countries, and thus reduced demand for oil. The United States cut economic growth in the first half of the year and adjusted growth data downwards, he said. This explains why gasoline demand is low and stocks are rising.

3. The US dollar's rise: Since oil is priced in dollars, the rise in the dollar means that the price of oil in local currencies has fallen against the dollar. If the decline is significant, this means high oil prices and oil derivatives within these countries, perhaps the most affected India and Turkey because of the decline of their currencies. At the time of writing, the Indian rupee was significantly reduced by the worsening situation in Kashmir and the Chinese yuan fell to its historic low on Trump's new customs duties last week.

The rise in the dollar also helps Russian companies and companies operating in the North Sea to reduce their costs and thus increase their production. This lowers oil prices. The reason for the benefit is that about 60 percent of the costs of these companies are paid in local currency which decreases, while selling oil in dollars that rises.

4. Increase in taxes on gasoline and diesel: Several countries have lifted subsidies on gasoline and diesel.Others raised taxes on them. This means that low oil prices will not lead to increased demand on the one hand, and that higher prices may lead to lower demand for oil products, and therefore oil. 13 US states have increased taxes on gasoline and diesel since the beginning of last month. This will limit the growth in demand for oil.

As for the issues of oil prices are all related to the micro-economy:

1 - Continued decline in US crude inventories, which fell by 48 million barrels during the past two months.

2. Slower oil production growth is slowing due to the difficulties experienced by oil companies and investors' pressure on them. The financial results for the second quarter of the past few days indicate that a number of companies have lowered their growth forecast for the rest of the year and next year.

3 - Increasing the rate of operation of refineries: Maintenance operations, sudden failures, fire, rain and storms contributed to the inability of refineries to increase operating rates in the past two months. What is the pressure on oil prices significantly, because refineries are the only consumer of crude oil. But things are getting better, albeit slowly and somewhat late because of the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico on the one hand, and the burning of the Philadelphia refinery on the other. This situation raised the refining profit rates. Which means that refineries now increase operating rates to reap these profits, which necessarily means increased demand for crude oil, lower inventory.

4. Increasing US exports: Increased production in the United States requires increased US exports. The data indicate a steady increase in US exports from the Gulf of Mexico to record levels. Increasing exports means easing pressure on US markets, thus reducing inventories.

5 - Decrease in US imports: This decline comes as some OPEC countries significantly reduce their exports to the United States to reduce the stock, while sending shipments to other countries in Asia and others. Another reason is that oil prices in the United States are lower than world prices, and there is no incentive to sell oil at reduced prices.

Here, he may say: Talk about the factors that fuel oil prices, but the increase in US exports and the transfer of OPEC countries from the United States to Asia means an increase in supply, how can this raise oil prices?

The answer is that oil is transported from areas that are visible to all to areas that no one sees! The United States is the only country in the world to publish weekly data on investors, traders and analysts, while other countries do not release data for months. So it makes sense for Saudi Arabia to target US stocks by reducing its exports to the United States.

The bottom line is that in the past few months, the factors that have been reduced and are still stronger than the leverage factors have resulted in prices being in place and declining. Although these factors continue to put pressure on oil prices, their impact has reached an all-time high, while leverage is increasing. Which will lead to higher oil prices. But there is an exception: oil prices will fall if the recession hits the global economy, from the United States to Japan. To make matters worse, India-Pakistan relations with Kashmir have been strained. The Indian army's dispatch to Kashmir has caused a sharp drop in India's stock market and Indian rupee.

In the absence of a recession, there is no path to oil prices except the upward path.

Endpoint

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8 minutes ago, Rafiki1 said:

Oh Thugs. You little cutie, you....my comments have only to do with his brilliant IQ and knowledge of basic geography....not about the reported background of the alleged shooter. 

The Libtard fave, Sleepy Joe sent his sympathies to Houston and Michigan

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9 minutes ago, Rafiki1 said:

Oh Thugs. You little cutie, you....my comments have only to do with his brilliant IQ and knowledge of basic geography....not about the reported background of the alleged shooter. 

 

Ur Cool Rafiki ! ;) 

 

 

 

But The Lamestream Media Is The “ Lyin’ King “ ! :o 

 

5d257df437db643a9f2c51ce?ops=max(650,0),
 
:D  :D  :D 
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1 hour ago, Rafiki1 said:

Oh Thugs. You little cutie, you....my comments have only to do with his brilliant IQ and knowledge of basic geography....not about the reported background of the alleged shooter. 

I get it now. Kind of like all the states Obama thought that belonged to the United States. 

Edited by jmartin1145
reasoning and being pissed off. lol
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2 minutes ago, Rafiki1 said:

Wow. Somebody knows the Real Rafiki. Nicely done! Thanks. You know it means “friend” in Swahili...very nice.......you boys keep having fun while all of us friends wait together. R1.

Thanks Rafiki. But I think most of us think of one man and one woman. Good luck on your adventures lib boy.

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  • yota691 changed the title to Iraq and the reduction of oil production .. "approval" subject to the commitment of "OPEC"

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Iraqi officials consider that the agreement to extend the oil production cut for another nine months, in order to maintain the stability of global oil markets, is conditional on the extent of compliance by all members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and outside OPEC, the terms of the agreement.

OPEC and independent producers agreed in November 2016 to cut production by about 1.8 million barrels per day from early 2017, and ended in December 2018.

This was followed by another 1.2 million barrels per day production cut, which began in early 2019 and ends in March 2020.

The spokesman for the Ministry of Oil, Asim Jihad, that the extension of the agreement to reduce production in the interest of "OPEC" and its allies.

Jihad explains: "The agreement aims to absorb the surplus oil and global, and therefore aims to stabilize and support oil prices in global markets."

He continued: "There is a turbulence and anxiety as a result of a surplus leading to market instability and lower prices, and the result impact on prices and revenues .. There is no point in exporting large quantities of oil with low revenues."

`` During the first half of 2019, the price of a barrel of oil exceeded the price approved in the budget, which is $ 56; the price was more than $ 61, and this supports the federal budget. ''

"OPEC's decisions on production cuts are temporary and may not last for a long time," he said.

Iraq has announced on more than one occasion its ability to produce 6 million barrels per day of crude oil, compared with the actual 4.5 million barrels currently.

But the agreement to cut production, and Iraq's desire to maintain price stability, prompted him to abide by the agreement by 100 percent.

The Iraqi parliament supports the position of the federal government to extend the agreement to reduce oil production for the next period, provided that the commitment of the rest of the members of the Organization, and producers outside.

The member of the oil and energy in the Iraqi parliament, Sadiq al-Sriti, that "the interest of Iraq requires that there be an equal formula in oil prices, to benefit Iraq."

He added that "at the moment .. Any increase in exports, will lead to lower prices, that is, export more quantities at lower prices, and this does not serve Iraq."

He pointed out that "the agreement to reduce production, directly affect Iraq's plans to increase production."

According to the expert in the oil field, Ali Neama, that Iraq's plans to increase exports, reaching 6 million barrels of oil per day, is a future realized in the next 5 or 6 years.

"Increasing Iraqi oil exports is the second phase of the plan, which begins in 2023, and aims to reach the ceiling of 6 million barrels of oil per day," he said.

"Until then, demand for oil on the world market is expected to rise, especially with US oil exports expected to fall below 12 million barrels."

And that "the agreement to reduce oil production, at the current stage, is a positive thing for Iraq."

Iraq is OPEC's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, producing about 4.5 million barrels per day.

Iraq depends in its annual financial revenues on oil exports by up to 97 percent, and seeks, through a package of legal legislation, to activate the industrial, agricultural and commercial.

Anatolia

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 Arab and international


Economy News _ Baghdad

Oil prices fell on Wednesday (August 7th) as the market continued to be affected by possible damage to the global economy and fuel demand due to escalating trade dispute between China and the United States.

Brent crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.32%, to $ 58.75 a barrel compared with the previous settlement, and were trading near the lowest level in seven months.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 12 cents, or 0.22 percent, from the last settlement to $ 53.51 a barrel.

Brent crude prices fell more than 9 percent last week after US President Donald Trump said he had decided to impose a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports worth $ 300 billion as of Sept. 1, causing turmoil in stock markets.

Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his US counterpart Rick Perry said both sides expressed concern about threats to free shipping in the Gulf during their meeting in Washington.

In another context, data indicated a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories, which provided some support for oil prices. 
US crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week ending August 2 to 439.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 2.8 million barrel decline.


Views: 18   Date Added: 07/08/2019

 
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US oil production continues to rise for the second week near record levels

US oil production continues to rise for the second week near record levels

 07 August 2019 08:50 PM
From: Sally Ismail

Direct: US oil production continues to rise for the second week in a row, heading towards the highest level in its history.

The weekly report issued by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, revealed that the oil production of the United States rose by 100,000 barrels per day in the week ending August 2 to 12.300 million barrels per day.

US oil production follows a bullish trend for the second week in a row and is only 100,000 barrels per day separated from the record high of weekly valuations.

It is noteworthy that US production of crude saw a strong jump in the last week of the month of July last of 900 thousand barrels per day.

According to the weekly report, net US imports of oil rose by about 1.2 million barrels per day last week, with a marked decline in exports and an increase in imports of crude.

US net imports of crude stood at 5.283 million bpd, up 1.194 million bpd from the previous week.

Oil imports in the United States rose last week by 485,000 bpd to 7.148 million bpd.

US crude exports fell last week to 1.865 million bpd, down 709,000 bpd from the week before.

In terms of  US oil inventories , it witnessed an increase of 2.4 million barrels in the past week, contrary to expectations of a decline of 2.9 million barrels.

US gasoline inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels.

By 2:52 pm GMT, Brent crude futures for October delivery fell 2.7 percent to $ 57.33 a barrel.

US crude for September delivery fell 3.2 percent to $ 51.92 a barrel.

 
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Oil losses exceed 4.5% on settlement after inventory data

Oil losses exceed 4.5% on settlement after inventory data

 07 August 2019 10:06 PM
Mubasher : Oil prices deepened losses by more than 4.5 percent on Wednesday, after US inventory data was released.

US Energy Information Administration data showed that US oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, contrary to expectations.

US oil production rose by 100,000 bpd last week to 12.300 million bpd.

The fall in black gold also comes amid fears of slowing demand due to the intensification of trade conflicts after the US president decided to apply tariffs on Chinese imports worth 300 billion dollars from next month.

At the settlement, the price of futures contracts for "Nymex" US crude for September delivery fell 4.7 percent at $ 51.09 a barrel.

By 7:00 pm GMT, Brent crude futures for October delivery were down nearly 4 percent to $ 56.65 a barrel.

 
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  • yota691 changed the title to Oil dilemma .. Does OPEC have to further cut supplies?

Oil dilemma .. Does OPEC have to further cut supplies?

Oil dilemma .. Does OPEC have to further cut supplies?

08 August 2019 06:25 PM
Edited by Sally Ismail

Direct: There is a clear battle going on in the oil market: uncertainty about demand growth versus a constructive picture of supply in the near term, but who will win?

For the remainder of the year, tightening is expected in the market, but by the year 2020, he believes there will be a more flexible balance again, according to an analysis published by ING's Blog of Commodity Strategy Chief Warren Patterson. .

 

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Oil Price Forecast to 2021 - (Source: ING Bank)

In the near term

OPEC and non-OPEC crude cuts are expected to play a good role in reducing global inventories for the rest of this year.

In general, the countries involved in the production cut deal have complied excessively, largely due to Saudi Arabia, whose oil production is about 500,000 barrels per day less than the agreed quota.

This comes despite the fact that other producers such as Iraq and Nigeria failed to comply with the agreement to reduce oil production levels.

Under the agreement, Iraq was supposed to produce just over 4.5 million bpd, down from the 4.65 million bpd recorded in October 2018, the reference month for cuts.

However, Iraq has in fact increased its oil production to pump an average of 4.7 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year.

However, strong overall compliance with the production cut agreement combined with a decline in Iranian oil supplies as well as high seasonal demand during the latter part of the year would lead to a decline in global inventories by about 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2019 and slightly more than 700 thousand barrels Daily in the last quarter of the year.

Thus, it is still believed that crude prices should trade above current levels, although in the current macroeconomic environment the road is likely to be difficult.

Spreads across different delivery times continue to point to a tougher physical market, which means that the higher the delivery time, the longer the delivery time is in reference to expectations of a supply deficit.

US oil inventories continue to fall, falling for seven consecutive weeks, with inventories falling by about 49 million barrels since early June.

This has boosted the price of Nymex crude compared with the price of Brent crude, with the gap between the price of US Nymex crude and Brent crude has shrunk from more than $ 7 a barrel in late July last to about $ 5 a barrel at the moment.

US oil inventories should continue to fall over the next two months, in line with seasonal trends. However, US exports should be monitored as further tightening of the price gap between Nymex and Brent could slow exports.

image.jpeg.6de3290a0262d6a2d9cac32bef2c845f.jpeg

Compliance with OPEC members since the beginning of the year until now

An additional decline in 2020

However, the balance is changing dramatically by 2020, and as a result the Dutch investment bank has revised down its crude price forecast for next year.

While OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts are set to last until the end of the first quarter of 2020, weak seasonal demand in the first quarter means that the global equilibrium is poised to cope with a large backlog of inventories during that period.

This is even assuming that Saudi Arabia will keep its oil production at 9.8 million barrels per day during that period, which is less than its share by about 500 thousand barrels per day.

As a result of strong oil supplies from non-OPEC crude producers and weak seasonal demand, ING estimates that demand for OPEC production in the first quarter will be around 28 million barrels per day.

This level is 1.9 million barrels per day lower than the group's production estimate for July, and 1.2 million barrels a day below the bank's current forecast for the first quarter of 2020.

That suggests we need to see more action from OPEC and non-member crude producers.

The first step is to ensure that all members comply at least with the production cut agreement, and then consider whether further reductions are needed during the first quarter of 2020.

Currently, given the agreement that will expire at the end of the first quarter of 2020, the oil market is also ready to see a large surplus in the second quarter of next year.

As a result, OPEC and non-OPEC members are likely to be forced to extend the current agreement until at least the end of the second quarter of next year, or risk falling crude prices.

However, such a decision is likely to be made only at the December meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers as soon as possible, assuming that market movements will not push for urgent action.

Looking at 2020, the investment bank expects demand for OPEC oil production to reach 29.1 million barrels per day (bpd), about 800,000 bpd less than the July estimate.

image.jpeg.d5c30348f21af04d0424b2c9d472a956.jpeg

Balance in the oil market

Demand concerns

It is clear that the current weakness in the oil market reflects concerns about the growth in demand for crude for the rest of this year as well as 2020, especially given the current macroeconomic environment and the escalation of trade war.

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for future demand growth.The IEA now sees demand growing by 1.8 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, up from 300,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2019 and up from 800,000 bpd. Barrels per day in the second quarter of this year.

Given the current overall environment, this figure may be overstated when compared to the rest of the year.

In addition, the longer the trade war drags on, the greater the downside risks to oil demand growth projections of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2020.

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 Arabic and International


Economy News _ Baghdad

Oil prices rose on Friday as it received some support from expectations of further OPEC production cuts, although concerns about the long-running trade dispute between the United States and China are holding back gains. 
Brent crude futures were at $ 57.54 a barrel by 0646 GMT, up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, from the previous settlement price. 
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $ 52.68 a barrel, up 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, from the previous close. 
Brent and WTI crude futures rose more than 2 percent on Thursday on reports that Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, had invited other producers to consider a recent drop in crude prices. 
Oil prices are still down more than 20 percent from their peaks in April.
Global financial markets have been shaken over the past week after US President Donald Trump said he would impose 10 percent tariffs on more Chinese goods from September as the yuan's decline stoked fears of a currency war. 
Bloomberg said Washington was delaying a decision on licenses for US companies to resume work with Huawei Technologies. 
Meanwhile, a Saudi oil official said the kingdom, OPEC's top crude producer, plans to keep its crude oil exports at less than 7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August and September to rebalance the market and contribute to shrinking inventories. World Oil. 
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei also said the UAE would continue to support measures to balance the oil market.
He said the joint ministerial monitoring committee of OPEC and non-OPEC producers would meet in Abu Dhabi on September 12 to review the situation in the oil market.


Views: 9   Date Added: 09/08/2019

 
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Information / Baghdad ..

Moody's said that despite the fiscal policy measures that have eased the financial deterioration associated with the decline in oil prices in the Gulf countries, most countries in the region will continue to record fiscal deficits and debt accumulation if oil prices remain at a moderate level As expected.

Moody's said in a report that the region's governments will increase spending and delay unpopular austerity measures to maintain higher standards of living and social stability, based on current levels of oil prices.

For his part, Vice President and senior analyst at Moody's, Alexander Bergisi, said that low oil prices since 2014 significantly weakened public spending in the Gulf region, pointing to the discrepancy in the implementation of financial control measures and reforms among the Gulf countries, pointing out that they focused More on the spending side.

Nonetheless, he pointed out that most of the countries in the region reversed their recent trend in spending, and returned to rise again, indicating that the level of spending increased by about 10 percent in 2018.

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Gloomy Oil Markets Just Got Gloomier

By Rystad Energy - Aug 10, 2019, 4:00 PM CDT

Recent developments in the oil market have sent cold shivers through Rystad Energy’s oil market team, calling into question our temporary bullish view for the first part of 2020 linked to the new IMO shipping fuel regulations.

“Economic recession risk and further escalation of the US-China trade war are key concerns in the near term. How long OPEC+ is willing to continue to manage production adds uncertainty,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market analysis at Rystad Energy.

The short-term oil demand outlook continues to be weak over global economic uncertainty and a simmering trade war between the US and China. Rystad Energy’s current base case scenario doesn’t assume an imminent recession, yet we observe troublesome indicators. The Chinese economy continues to lag, most recently only posting a 6.2% growth rate, and the US is also showing signs of deceleration. The trade war between the US and China has ratcheted up after the latest US announcement to slap a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. The Chinese responded by halting agricultural imports and allowing their currency to depreciate.

“This adds downside risk to already moderate growth numbers. Continued worsening of US-China trade relations could lower demand growth by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.0 million bpd in 2020,” Tonhaugen observed.

1565374817-o_1dhrpo02qjkd1edr5v0q0nung8.

(Click to enlarge)

Our global field production forecast for 2019 is largely unchanged from last month’s Oil Market Update Report, but 2020 field production (crude, condensate and NGLs) has been revised up by 0.5 million bpd to 97.6 million bpd in this latest update, again led by the US and followed by Norway, China and Canada. Related: Is Algal Biofuel A Lost Cause?

OPEC production cuts have helped buoy oil prices so far this year, but there is plenty of production ticking up outside of OPEC nations. The growth forecast for 2020 is quite exceptional, climbing by 3 million bpd or more over a period of just nine months, if OPEC+ does not extend or deepen their production cuts next year.

“We a see clear downside risk to 2020 prices due to excessive supply growth. We still believe the market does not recognize the positive effect on crude demand that IMO 2020 will bring. However, if the IMO effect on crude demand is less than expected, OPEC intervention may be needed as early as the first quarter of 2020 to avoid imbalances in the oil market,” Tonhaugen added.

Rystad Energy still believes demand growth globally will improve in the second half of 2019, but the recent exchange of US-China trade tariffs and overall weak manufacturing, exports and trade indicators elsewhere in the world could cap demand growth recovery if we see no trade deal in the immediate future. Hence, the market may send oil prices downward before 2020. At present, only large unplanned outages to the tune of 1.0 million bpd would create a somewhat tight market outlook in the near term.

“Needless to say, the second half of 2019 will be very exciting indeed,” Tonhaugen remarked.

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China’s Iranian Oil Weapon

By ZeroHedge - Aug 10, 2019, 12:00 PM CDT

Two reports out this week worth paying attention to which could greatly impact oil prices at a crucial moment in which leaders in Tehran are desperately urging China to purchase more Iranian crude: 

First, Reuters notes China continued importing Iranian oil in July for the second month since a US sanctions waiver ended, though at greatly diminished levels compared to the year prior, citing numbers from three data firms:

According to the firms, which track tanker movements, between 4.4 million and 11 million barrels of Iranian crude were discharged into China last month, or 142,000 to 360,000 barrels per day (bpd). The upper end of that range would mean July imports still added up to close to half of their year-earlier level despite sanctions.

And second, this via CNBC early this week, Brent and WTI price could crash if China buys Iranian oil. Bank of America is warning oil prices could potentially crash by $30 a barrel if China ramps up Iranian crude purchases. Reverses Loss After China’s Stronger Yuan Fix

The report summarized:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns the oil price could slip sharply if China buys Iranian oil.

Beijing could undermine Washington’s foreign policy stance by ignoring U.S. sanctions placed on Iran.

BofA is keeping its $60 per barrel price estimate in place for 2020.

Currently the Trump administration puts Iran's oil exports at a range of 50-70 percent going to China, and with around 30 percent going to Syria. Related: Energy Storage Boom Goes Into Overdrive

With the US and UK now aggressively choking the Tehran to Damascus trade, given last month's UK Royal Marine intercept of the Grace 1 tanker off Gibraltar, Tehran's economic survival is ever more dependent on selling to China - a country powerful enough to bust US sanctions. 

Last week Iran's Vice President Jahangiri made a direct appeal to Beijing and "friendly" countries to up their Iranian crude purchases in statements made during a Chinese diplomatic delegation visit. 

“Even though we are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing some restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian oil,” Jahangiri reportedly told visiting senior Chinese diplomat Song Tao.

Meanwhile, figures just prior to ending the waiver program:

You will find more infographics at Statista

China's crude imports from Iran have been plunging this summer, sinking almost 60 percent in June compared to a year earlier. But Beijing could unleash severe oil volatility on global markets if it decides to reverse course; the General Administration of Chinese Customs is set to publish exact details of July imports by origin in the last week of August.

This also as the Chinese Ministry of Commerce threatened countermeasures in response to Trump's fresh threats of a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion dollars of Chinese goods made a week ago.

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What prevents oil from exceeding $ 100 a barrel?

What prevents oil from exceeding $ 100 a barrel?

11 August 2019 05:37 PM
Edited by Sally Ismail

Mubasher: One of the most important questions in the world oil markets is about US crude production.

OPEC is keen to know when the beginning of US oil production will see a downward trend, according to a report published by Oil Price.

The return of the boom in US oil production over the past decade has reduced OPEC's hold on world crude markets.

In less than eight years, US oil production has jumped from less than 6 million bpd to more than 12 million bpd .

It is arguably the only reason why oil prices have not exceeded $ 100 a barrel for now.

US oil production growth from 2005 to 2019

It seems that OPEC's current strategy is to wait for US production to start a bearish trend in order to begin to regain control of oil markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may not have to wait too long.

The Permian Basin has seen a slowdown in US oil production growth, the most important crude production area in the United States, but it is not the only one.

While the re-emergence of US oil production has been concentrated in shale oil, US offshore production has also made a big leap.

Over the past decade, US Gulf Coast oil production has risen from about 1.2 million barrels per day to about 2 million barrels per day.

Looking at the following chart, it seems that production may start to shift towards the end of the time frame.

In fact, the US Energy Information Administration reported a slight downward trend in US oil production since May.

The key question is whether this situation is an anomaly or the beginning of a sustainable trend.

Applying the same analysis applied to the production of the Permian Basin - which examined changes in production on a yearly basis - it became clear that US overall oil production growth was slowing faster than that of the Permian Basin.

 image.jpeg.835ce96d2480d77aaec68b35de44c09c.jpeg

Change in US oil production on an annual basis

The following chart shows that US oil production growth has slowed since January as the pace has accelerated in recent months.

image.jpeg.7e88334f7224bc97227370811f4fac29.jpeg

Production growth is taking a downward trend very quickly, and if the decline continues at the current pace, oil production growth may fall below zero before the end of this year (production will decline instead of growth).

The sharp decline was due to the interruption of offshore production before Hurricanes Bari, according to the latest report by the US Energy Information Administration.

But even assuming a slower rate of decline than a year ago, US production growth appears to be back below zero within a year.

Once growth slows below zero, it represents a year-on-year decline in US production.

It is difficult to say whether the current decline will be a permanent situation.

It should be noted that 2015 saw a similar decline but this trend reversed in 2017, with oil prices recovering from the level of $ 30 a barrel to more than $ 50 a barrel.

It is doubtful that the current decline will see the same sharp reversal, as the previous decline was the result of sharp cuts in capital spending as oil prices fell from $ 100 a barrel to below $ 30 a barrel.

The current decline in US oil production takes place during a period of lower oil prices.

Regardless, perhaps the only thing that can stop the current slowdown is a jump in oil prices compared to their current levels.

Without a halt to this slowdown, overall US oil production is likely to see a downward trend within a year, possibly by the end of the year.

This is the result that OPEC hopes to achieve.

Obviously, OPEC's strategy is to maintain support for oil prices until US oil production begins to fall at a point where it can reassert control over global oil markets.

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  • yota691 changed the title to Oil falls on expectations of lower demand

Oil falls on expectations of lower demand

Economy | 11:09 - 12/08/2019

 
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Follow - Mawazine News

Oil prices fell on Monday amid fears of an economic slowdown and a trade war between China and the United States that led to a reduction in the outlook for growth in global demand for crude.

Oil prices fell on Monday amid fears of an economic slowdown and a trade war between China and the United States that led to a reduction in the outlook for growth in global demand for crude.

By 0638 GMT, Brent crude futures were at $ 58.40 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from the previous settlement price. 
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $ 54.33 a barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, from the previous close. 
Brent and WTI crude futures fell last week with Brent down more than 5 percent and West Texas Intermediate down nearly 2 percent. 
The US-China trade dispute shook global stock markets last week, and a sudden surge in US crude oil inventories put downward pressure on oil prices, which lost about 20 percent of their 2019 peaks in April.
Goldman Sachs said in a memorandum on Sunday that concerns about a US-China trade war were leading to a recession were growing and he expected the two countries would not reach an agreement before the US presidential election in 2020. 
The International Energy Agency said on Friday that growing signs of economic slowdown and escalating conflict trade have caused a slowdown in global oil demand growth of less pace since the financial crisis in 2008 
and reduced the agency, based in Paris, its growth forecast for global oil demand in 2019 and 2020 to 1.1 million and 1.3 million barrels per day , respectively. 
Meanwhile, two sources familiar with data from the Russian Energy Ministry reported that Russian oil production rose to 11.32 million barrels per day in the period from August 1 to August 8, compared with an average of 11.15 million barrels per day in July.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, agreed in July to extend their deal to cut supplies until March 2020 to support crude prices.

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  • yota691 changed the title to Updated: oil falls 5% upon settlement, with geopolitical concerns calm

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