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By Adam Montana
Happy Saturday all!
The week was long, my apologies for getting this up so late...
... fortunately, I do not have to apologize for anything in Iraq. I know most of you don’t read the entirety of all the threads (who has time??), so I’ll bring a couple of important notes here.
This one, in particular, spells out EVERYTHING.
Iraq needs HCL (oil law) to really kick things into high gear. The oil law is many things, but of extreme importance is it’s scope regarding Kurdish relations with Baghdad inside the country.
You don’t have to do more than skim the following to see that this is ALL about that... and pretty much 100% positive.
That’s excellent stuff regarding the HCL, so I’ll leave that one for now. I have a question for the members here - I have my own opinion, and I’ll share that in an upcoming update.
The “budget” - specifically, this:
There are a few “known” budgets. The operating budget that’s currently in place and a supplemental budget scheduled for September. We can argue that there are more than that, but let’s keep it simple.
I’ve seen a few comments regarding the possibility, or even impossibility, of a change in the rate without the “next” budget in place. This seems to suggest that people think a budget must be released that accurately accounts for an increased exchange rate.
This means Iraq would give the world a large notice that they intend to change the exchange rate before they actually do it... am I reading the comments wrong, or is that really a belief held by some of the members? If it is, I just want to understand your logic.
That's enough for now, I’ll follow up on that somewhat loaded question in a couple days.
By Adam Montana
Good morning all!
Today is Wednesday, 3rd of July 2019.
The air is crisp... well, not really. Actually it's humid here and the mosquitos are napping for the moment, but it's still a beautiful day!
Interesting times right now. GOI members are playing very nicely. Bitcoin saw that pullback I mentioned, and looks to be on the rise again. The G20 didn't produce any immediately exciting news that I've ran across, but it didn't bring us anything bad either.
Back in the news, and worth a review, is the current OPEC agreement.
This article I posted this morning highlights a very important point I've been harping on for some time, and even extends it - the current OPEC deal.
Important notes in that article:
Iraq is the 2nd largest oil producer in OPEC. (Does it make sense that it's currency is valued so low?) The production limitation agreement has been extended for 9 months - to boost the price of oil, rather than overproduce and drive the prices down.
There is more in there, but let's focus on those for a moment.
The amount of time the agreement has been extended isn't as important as the mere fact that it IS extended. Oil is hovering just under that $60 mark, and the stability is a great thing. Stable oil prices = comfortable accountants = solid footing to RV. (Yes, the accountants have a say!)
Iraq is noted as the second largest producer... wait, what? We're talking about BLACK GOLD here, one of the most valuable commodities on the planet. And Iraq is #2... yet the currency they use is currently over 1000X weaker than the US dollar.
Collectively, OPEC nations have over 80% of the world's known oil reserves... yet Iraq, the 2nd largest producer in that group, has a currency that would require 2000 pieces of it to buy a loaf of bread at your corner store.
OPEC as a group agreed to keep oil production low, to stimulate oil prices. The majority of the members placed their name on the list of participants in this endeavor when it was originally voted on.
The majority of the members did that...
... Iraq specifically did NOT.
I hope you understand how huge this is for Iraq. They are one of the founding members of OPEC. The 2nd largest producer in the group. Iraq is agreeing to support these cuts.
But they did not agree to join the group in their cuts.
This gives Iraq carte blanche - complete freedom - to increase their production on a moment's notice, revalue their currency, and corner the market while they rake in cash to cover their "expenses". They may be operating on an increased production as we speak, stocking up hidden stores of oil in preparation for a huge push to bring in a massive amount of capital to cover the RV. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as they say, and that's just one aspect.
The above is certainly an oversimplification of the big picture, but the fact remains - Iraq is nodding in agreement with the cuts, but they have never committed to it.
Have a safe and happy 4th, everyone! If my next post is missing some letters, I'll run a contest to see who can guess which finger I may have lost.
P.S. As a side note, you might want to consider shorting oil as soon as the RV is announced... I know that's a gamble I'll be considering heavily.
By Adam Montana
Adding a rare discount on VIP and some selected OSI products!
Save a cool 20% with code "G20" at this link:
You'll get access to all things VIP, including our very active crypto section. Join us!
****** end edit.
Happy Hump Day!
There is a recurring note present in my updates recently... I'm sure many of you already noticed.
The note has to do with the truth that can be found in rumors, even if the rumors themselves are not entirely accurate.
I'm going to continue that today, because the rumor section seems exceptionally lively... and some of it holds some very solid truths, even if the rumors themselves have been hyper-inflated like that time your neighbor Bob caught that 28 pound perch.
This time of year has historically been big for Iraq. Monumental items like Chapter 7 unfolded in late June, and there's another important event right around the corner:
The G20 Summit.
Here's a fairly detailed explanation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-g20-summit-explained
You probably noticed that Iraq is not on the list. In that case, it might not be immediately obvious why this even matters to us, so I'll explain a small part of it.
Even though Iraq isn't technically "present", it's not difficult to understand that anytime oil, money, gold or gifts leave Iraq - they are touched by one or more of those major players listed above. For Iraq to be successful in raising the value of their currency, they need to be able to operate their business, and the G20 Summit will have an effect on how the global money game is played for the next year. Once the Summit has concluded, Iraq may change their tactics slightly, but most importantly they will be free to make a decision and act accordingly.
It's a big deal, and it's good.
So although I don't expect an RV announcement to be made at the Summit, or directly because of the Summit, I do think it's reasonable to expect some actions after the summit.
Before I forget - the DV lottery pool. https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/266455-dv-lottery-games-for-625-626-2019
And if that kind of lottery isn't your thing, maybe bitcoin is... anyone paying attention here? We have a special spot for it in VIP, and we've been pretty hot on BTC for a couple weeks now. Does it surprise anyone that BTC is on a tear right now?
It wouldn't, if you had been watching this VIP thread!
To sum that up, in case you're not in VIP - BTC (bitcoin) took a scant 16 days to soar from 10k to 20k when it hit it's all time high.
As I'm typing this, BTC is over 13k... up over $2000 since yesterday.
When it was announced that facebook was officially getting in the game (see my thread started June 19), I personally hailed it as a great thing for crypto in general.
I will NOT be surprised to see BTC hit 20k again, and it won't take long.
This is not based only on the Facebook announcement, and I won't get into all of the boring details here - we're discussing it in great detail in the VIP section.
Did I mention we're talking about this stuff in VIP?
(As if you needed another reason to join us there, you know! )
Whether you're in the pool, or happily watching Bitcoin rise, or just hanging out in VIP enjoying the knowledge and sharing the adventure with us, waiting to take advantage of a better cash in rate soon...
.... GOOO RRRVVVVV!!!!
By Adam Montana
Gooooood afternoon everyone!
Well, we did it! We weathered another Ramadan, and Eid al fitr. I am going to state the obvious: Despite no RV announcement during the Big Holiday, this was a more eventful one than normal.
All positive, too!
Historically, many of the bigger milestones have happened around this time of year. Chapter 7 was lifted in late June, for example. A few others have also occurred right around now as well.
I have my eye on some "triggers" - nothing I can put a guarantee on, and I had a work issue pop up right as I was getting started with this update, so I'll save my hypothesizing for later. I have reason to believe we are entering a unique week for the Iraqi dinar, so I have already blocked time off on my calendar for additional dinar focus over the coming ~10 days.
If I'm wrong, you can tar and feather me. If I'm not wrong, we should have some interesting times ahead.
Before I wrap this up, here's something I don't do very often - This thread is now open for questions.
What's on your mind?
( I'm a glutton for punishment, what can I say?! And I already have extra time blocked off for Dinar this coming week, so what the heck... let's do it! )
By Adam Montana
I'm filing this under "weekly", but really it's just a follow up to last week's chat. I've been traveling and internet has been a problem, hence the delay.
Last week, I was expecting a particular bit of news out of Iraq, based on conversations with my personal contacts.
This isn't earth shattering news, on the surface. If you're here for a "rate or date" prediction, you can go back to cat videos on youtube now.
Seriously! Here you go, please enjoy... I know you will.
(Cat video above!)
Back to business
I don't always share the "inside" stuff that crosses my desk, but I often hear about trends and insights that are about to be released. I have to be certain about what I post before I make public statements, because every word I post here is analyzed 6 ways from the closest palm tree, subjected to 17 different interpretations, and sometimes used maliciously.
The item I'm about to talk about was a 99%er, and it's very positive for us, but I was holding it tight for a few reasons... one, I don't want to blow up the server with it. Two, I don't want to give the "gurus" any more than they already have.
Let me get to the point, assuming you're still reading and not completely distracted by the video above
Due to my technical issues over the last few days (3rd world country internet), I suddenly find that I have to scrap an entire public update because someone beat me to the punch on this one... nice job, @6ly410!
This is the offending article, which was posted in response to my last weekly update... and this is where the conversation gets serious:
Unless you've been living under a rock or just found the DinarVets.com website, you know I've been talking about how the current OPEC agreement is a huge "ace in the hole" for Iraq.
That article above is the biggest "bat signal" imaginable!
I'll spell it out real quick - OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is an intergovernmental organization of 14 nations, founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members, and headquartered since 1965 in Vienna, Austria. Wikipedia) currently has an understanding / agreement to limit production. Iraq is not specifically included or excluded from it, despite the founding information you can see above, and they are in prime position (GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY) to monetize their place in the deal.
I don't know what else I can say about it... Iraq is in the best place we could hope for.
Ramadan is nearing it's end, we are looking at a live fuse attached to a financial firework, and I won't be surprised if they light the fuse before 4th of July.
Not that Iraq cares about the 4th of July... that date just happens to mesh with the "live fuse" metaphor, and the timing is right.
Ignore it if you want. Join VIP if you want to have max benefits. The choice is yours. Either way, I'm excited to be on this side of the microphone as things go down!
P.S. There's an OSI-only post coming soon. I have a VIP post that I wanted to get out by now, but I refuse to release things that aren't complete.
P.P.S. We all love cat videos. And we all know that over 90% of the members here just show up for the entertainment, and less than 10% of us are serious about Post RV, so for 9/10 of the community... please respond with a funny cat video
Some of you need no encouragement.