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World Bank: Iraqi economy will grow in 2019

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10:03 - 02/04/2019

information / Baghdad ..

The World Bank predicted that the Iraqi economy will witness a remarkable recovery in the coming period, likely to rise economic growth after the formation of the government of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.

In its annual report, the World Bank forecast 2.8 percent growth this year, especially after the formation of the new government, compared with 0.6 percent in 2018, and that the agreement on Iraq's reconstruction would give the country's economy a boost.

In the Middle East and North Africa, GDP per capita will increase 1.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

The World Bank predicted real GDP in the region would grow by 3.4 and 2.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The Bank attributed this to the continued implementation by the countries of the region of structural reforms aimed at diversifying the economy and enhancing the business environment.

Oil-importing countries are expected to see economic growth rise to 4.7 per cent of real GDP by the end of 2021. Djibouti is leading these countries at a growth rate of 8 per cent in 2021, Government Investment in Infrastructure

https://www.almaalomah.com/2019/04/02/397401/

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13 hours ago, Botzwana said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_dinar

 

Decided to play around today….looking at varios things.  Never looked at dinar on Wikipedia...Found something interesting.

 

There is considerable confusion (perhaps intentional on the part of dinar sellers) around the role of the International Monetary Fund in Iraq. The IMF as part of the rebuilding of Iraq is monitoring their finances and for this purpose uses a single rate (not a sell/buy) of 1170 dinars per dollar. This "program rate"[3] is used for calculations in the IMF monitoring program and is not a rate imposed on Iraq by the IMF. For a wider history surrounding currency in the region, see British currency in the Middle East.

 

I love that this article says PROGRAM RATE!  I always in the back of my mind thought it was just a guru term.  But it is right there.  Good to know.

Wow

I were thinking the same thing early this Week....What if the 1190 is Actually the Iraq Exchange Rate....Glad you founded this Article to give me PIECE of Mind....Thanks Again Bro ...Invisible High Five @ ya

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World Bank: Iraq's economy will grow by 2.8 per cent

 
 
Baghdad / Al-Sabah
 
 
 
The World Bank predicted on Tuesday that Iraq's economy will witness a remarkable recovery in the coming period, expecting growth of 2.8 percent this year.
 
The World Bank, in a report followed by "morning", "Iraq's economy will see a recovery during the coming period, especially after the formation of a new government in Baghdad."
 
"The Iraqi economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent compared to 0.6 percent in 2018," the report said, adding that "the agreement on the reconstruction of Iraq will give the economy a strong boost."
 
Iraq has suffered during the last period of recession and the rise of unemployment because of the war against gangs and urged 2014 and the decline in oil prices in world markets.
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  • yota691 changed the title to The World Bank In Iraq

The World Bank has developed the Country Partnership Framework for the period FY20-FY25. The CPF program is structured around three pillars and one cross-cutting theme prioritizing inclusion of the poor and vulnerable with a specific emphasis on women and girls, youth and the internally displaced.

 
  • Iraq’s economy is gradually picking up following the deep economic strains of the last four years. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a notable improvement in security conditions and higher oil prices, reversing the contraction of 1.7 percent seen in 2017. The non-oil economy is picking up speed and grew at 4 percent, while oil production was slightly less than 2017 in line with the OPEC+ agreement. Recently the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence with the signing of several trade agreements with its neighbors. Reconstruction efforts have been proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly up from 2017, due to higher domestic demand in addition to rising food and transportation costs. 

    The overall fiscal balance swung from deficit (1.7 percent in 2017) to surplus (6.2 percent) in 2018 but the composition of spending worsened. Non-oil taxation has been well below budgetary projections due to weak compliance and reversal of some policy measures. The composition of spending deteriorated towards current spending—particularly public-sector wages and transfers. Investment spending proceeded at a moderate pace in 2018, but non-oil investment spending continues to be slow and its execution lower than the budgeted amount.    

    The recovery in oil prices has also been conducive to better outcomes on external balance. The current account surplus is estimated to have widened to 4.9 percent in 2018. Higher oil prices have also supported a steady increase in international reserves from US$49 billion in 2017 (or 6.9 months of imports), to US$64 billion (7.8 months) in 2018, rebuilding buffers to external shocks.  

    Growth and the positive overall fiscal balance in 2018 are estimated to reduce the public debt-to-GDP to 48.4 percent in 2018 from 66 percent in 2016. The government has also adopted a framework to control the issuance of guarantees, which peaked at US$33 billion (or 20 percent of GDP) in end-2016.  

    Monetary poverty rate is expected to decline from the 2014 level (22.5 percent) on the back of recent economic growth and improvement in the security situation but will remain unevenly distributed across the country. The standard of living in the conflict-affected areas is possibly still below the 2014 level because of disruptions in the labor market and general economic activity. IDPs have also likely experienced severe welfare loss through loss of jobs and livelihoods. These conditions have the potential to sustain a low-level but persistent insecurity focused in northern Iraq. There has recently been an improvement in several non-income dimensions of welfare. The multidimensional poverty headcount ratio dropped from 6.8 percent in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2017/18. Increase in school enrollment, expansion of drinking water provision and sewage disposal services have contributed to the fall in multidimensional poverty.  

    However, labor market outcomes continue to be a concern, especially for women and youth. At 48.7 percent, the country has one of the lowest labor force participation rates in the world, and in the region especially for women (12 percent) and youth (26 percent). The unemployment rate, which was falling before the ISIS and oil crises hit, has increased beyond the 2012 level to 9.9 percent in 2017/18. Moreover, almost 17 percent of the economically active population is underemployed. Underutilization is particularly high among internally displaced persons, with almost 24 percent of internally displaced persons (IDPs) unemployed or underemployed. The crises have eroded the gradual progress in the women’s employment; female unemployment rate rose from 11.3 percent before the crises to 20.7 percent in 2017. Also, more than a fifth of the economically active youth (ages 15 – 24) do not have a job, and more than a fifth of the economically active youth is neither in employment nor in education or training (NEET).  

    Outlook 

    The economic outlook has improved due to higher oil prices and the improving security situation, but constraints on capital spending will impede a recovery-driven growth acceleration. Growth is expected to spike to 8.1 percent in 2020 due mainly to higher oil output, with OPEC+ agreement coming to an end in mid-2019. Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of higher investment needed to rebuild the country's damaged infrastructure network, private consumption and investment. However, the recently approved 2019 budget presents a sizable increase in recurrent spending, and unless there is a significant reorientation in fiscal policy to a comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to sustain post-war recovery and longer-term development. Higher spending together with easing oil prices will result in a high fiscal deficit projected at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before narrowing down to about 3 percent throughout 2020-2021. Lower oil prices and increased imports will cause the current account balance to turn into deficit, financed partially by international reserves decumulation. 

    Last Updated: Apr 01, 2019

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  • yota691 changed the title to Arab Monetary Fund raises its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2019 and 2020

Arab Monetary Fund raises its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2019 and 2020

Arab Monetary Fund raises its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2019 and 2020
Flag of the Republic of Iraq
 10 April 2019 3:21 PM

Mubasher: The Arab Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy during the current year and next year.

The IMF, according to a report issued on Wednesday on the prospects of the Arab economy for 2019 and 2020, predicted the growth of the Iraqi economy at constant prices by 3.8% this year, compared to a contraction of 1% last year.

The IMF forecast that the growth rate will continue to rise in 2020 to 4.4%.

At the level of inflation in the country, the Arab Monetary Fund expected to reach 1.5% in 2019, to rise from 2018, which reached 0.4%, and expected to continue to rise about 1.7% next year.

The IMF forecasts that the current account will grow by 8.3% in 2019 and 8% by 2020.

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Arab Monetary Fund raises its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2019 and 2020

Economy | 05:31 - 10/04/2019

image.png.b6f85cfb3bf5c56b94bfa8cfd1d1046f.png

 

 

https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=42091

 

Baghdad - Mawazine News 
The Arab Monetary Fund raised its expectations for the growth of the Iraqi economy during the current year and next year. 
The IMF, according to its report on Wednesday, on the prospects of the Arab economies for 2019 and 2020, the growth of Iraq's economy at constant prices by 3.8% this year, compared to a contraction of 1% last year. 
The IMF forecast that the growth rate will continue to rise in 2020 to 4.4%. 
At the level of inflation in the country, the Arab Monetary Fund expected to reach 1.5% in 2019, to rise from 2018, which reached 0.4%, and expected to continue to rise about 1.7% next year. 
The IMF forecasts that the current account growth will increase by 8.3% in 2019 and 8% by 2020. 29 / h

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Arab Monetary Fund expects Iraqi economy to grow by 3.8% next year
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Economy News Baghdad:

The Arab Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy during the current year 2019 and next year 2020.

The IMF, according to its report on Wednesday, on the prospects for the Arab economy for 2019 and 2020, the growth of Iraq's economy at constant prices by 3.8% this year, compared to a contraction of 1% last year.

The IMF forecast that the growth rate will continue to rise in 2020 to 4.4%.

At the level of inflation in the country, the Arab Monetary Fund expected to reach 1.5% in 2019, up from 2018, which reached 0.4%, and expected to continue to rise about 1.7% next year.

The IMF forecasts that the current account will grow by 8.3% in 2019 and 8% by 2020.

Views 63   Date Added 04/10/2019

http://economy-news.net/content.php?id=16206

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  • yota691 changed the title to Table - Arab Monetary Fund raises its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy by 2019 and 2020
 
Wednesday, April 10,
 
 
Search Bigger
 
 

Alsumaria News / Baghdad , 
raising the Arab Monetary Fund forecasts for the growth of the Iraqi economy during the year 2019 and next year 2020. The 

fund predicted, according to a report released him on Wednesday about the prospects for the Arab States economy in 2019 and 2020, the economy of Iraq at constant prices grew by 3.8% during the year Compared to a 1% contraction last year. 

The IMF forecast that the growth rate will continue to rise in 2020 to 4.4%.

 

 


At the level of inflation in the country, the Arab Monetary Fund expected to reach 1.5% in 2019, to rise from 2018, which reached 0.4%, and expected to continue to rise about 1.7% next year. 

The IMF forecasts that the current account will grow by 8.3% in 2019 and 8% by 2020.


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World Bank

 

PUBLICATION APRIL 1, 2019

Iraq's Economic Update - April 2019

Latest Issue: 

April 2019

 

Iraq’s economy is gradually picking up following the deep economic strains of the last four years. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a notable improvement in security conditions and higher oil prices, reversing the contraction of 1.7 percent seen in 2017. The non-oil economy picked up speed and grew at 4 percent, while oil production was slightly less than 2017 in line with the OPEC+ agreement. Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence with the signing of several trade agreements with its neighbors. Reconstruction efforts have been proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly up from 2017, due to higher domestic demand in addition to rising food and transportation costs.

The economic outlook has improved due to higher oil prices and improving security situation, but constraints on capital spending will impede a recovery-driven growth acceleration. Growth is expected to spike to 8.1 percent in 2020 due mainly to higher oil output, with OPEC+ agreement coming to an end in mid- 2019.

Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of higher investment needed to rebuild the country's damaged infrastructure network, private consumption and investment. However, the recently approved 2019 budget presents a sizable increase in recurrent spending, and unless there is a significant reorientation in fiscal policy to a comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to sustain post-war recovery and longer-term development.

Higher spending together with easing oil prices will result in a high fiscal deficit projected at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before narrowing down to about 3 percent throughout 2020-2021.

Lower oil prices and increased imports will cause the current account balance to turn into deficit, financed partially by international reserves decumulation.

Iraq's Economic Update - April 2019

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iraq/publication/economic-update-april-2019

 

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http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/300251553672479193/Iraq-MEU-April-2019-Eng.pdf

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  • yota691 changed the title to The World Bank expects Iraq's economy to improve gradually

The World Bank expects Iraq's economy to improve gradually

 
Baghdad / Al-Sabah - Zina Ibrahim
The World Bank Fund predicted that the economy will continue to weaken in the first half of 2019 and that growth in 2019 will slow by 0.7 percent of the global economy, while the Bank expects the Iraqi economy to gradually improve after the severe economic pressures of the last four years.
The global economic growth rate fell to 3.6 percent in 2018 and is expected to continue to decline to 3.3 percent in 2019. The general economy has started a weak start and is expected to rise in the second half of the year as inflationary pressures ease as the outlook for trade tensions improves. Between the United States and China with the emergence of the prospects of the trade agreement and the efforts of major central banks to facilitate the economy.
At the domestic level, the bank expects the Iraqi economy to gradually improve after the severe economic pressures of the last four years. Real GDP growth is estimated at 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a marked improvement in security conditions and rising oil prices, reversing a 1.7 percent contraction in 2017. The non-oil economy saw rapid growth with a growth rate of 4 percent, Oil production slightly lower than in 2017 in line with the OPEC agreement.
Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence in the signing of several trade agreements with neighboring countries. Reconstruction efforts are proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly higher than in 2017 due to rising domestic demand as well as rising food and transportation costs.
The economic outlook has improved due to higher oil prices and improved security, but restrictions on capital spending will hinder accelerated growth driven by recovery. Growth is expected to rise to 8.1 percent in 2020, mainly due to higher oil production, with the OPEC agreement ending in mid-2019. Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of increased investment needed to rebuild the nation's devastated infrastructure network and consumption Private investment.
However, the recently approved 2019 budget represents a significant increase in recurrent spending. Unless there is a major reorientation in the fiscal policy of the comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to support post-war recovery and long-term development. Rising spending, coupled with falling oil prices, would raise the projected budget deficit by 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before cutting it to around 3 percent in 2020-2021. Lower oil prices and increased imports would translate the balance of current transactions into deficits, partially financed by international reserves.
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Transforming Iraq's economy into market systems, theory and practice

 
 
 
Dr.. Mohammed Riad Hamza
 
 
The transition from the socialist economy to the market economy was not easy for Russia and the East European countries before and after 1991. The manifestations of that era are still present despite the passage of more than a quarter of a century since the collapse of socialist regimes in those countries. Although the societies of those countries enjoyed stability and mature political awareness that was ripe for understanding and adopting change. As well as the integration of infrastructure 
To their economies. 
In the sense that most of the components of the transition to a market economy exist in those countries. So far, the transformation of an economy has not yet been achieved 
market.
Iraq inherited from Saddam Hussein's Baath regime an economy collapsed not only because of the 13-year siege, but because of the tendency of that regime to spend most of the national income on armament and then "folly" to wage two wars. The Iraqi economy was not socialist in the practical sense of the socialist system. During 35 years of Baathist rule, Iraq's annual financial resources (national income), gross domestic product (GDP), or "annual fiscal budget"
 General. 
There is no real presence of the private sector in the basic production and service activities except in the service of the system, and it was not "kindly" for some to win 
Loyalty. 
The Iraqi economy continued to be exhausted after 2003 because of the terrorism that led to the confusion in the management and waste of public funds, as well as the continuing spread of corruption, as acknowledged by the prime ministers (Maliki, Abadi and Abdul Mahdi). 
Iraq's economy after 2003 inherited a heavy legacy of indebtedness to most of the world. The infrastructure of the oil sector was no better than other economies. The reality of the Iraqi economy today and after 16 years needs a double effort to sustain growth. 
The national economy, battered by the war on terror, is spending more than 70 percent of the annual financial resources of crude oil exports between 2003 and 2017. This is not a reality of a transition to a market economy.
Is not pessimistic about the reality of its disadvantages to disrupt immediate and future action to lay the foundations for a strong and sustainable Iraqi economy 
the growth. 
Iraq, with its natural and human resources, is prepared to absorb 100 million people with European welfare. The (decisive condition tool) is managed politically and economically on the basis of experience, integrity and allegiance to the nation before any loyalty ... The transformation of the economy to the market system from a political and economic reality, And the implementation of the rehabilitation of infrastructure for agricultural, industrial, financial and trade relations. As well as the establishment of a security achievement covering the entire provinces of Iraq. To attract national investment 
And foreign.
In a World Bank report published in early April 2019 (Iraq: Economic Prospects), the Iraqi economy is gradually improving after the severe economic pressures of the four years 
Past. 
Real GDP growth is estimated at 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a marked improvement in security conditions and rising oil prices, reversing a 1.7 percent contraction in 2017. The non-oil economy saw rapid growth with a growth rate of 4 percent, Oil production slightly lower than in 2017 in line with the agreement 
OPEC.
Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence in the signing of several trade agreements with neighboring countries. Reconstruction efforts are proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly higher than in 2017 due to rising domestic demand as well as rising food and transportation costs. Economic outlook improved due to higher oil prices and improved security situation. But constraints on capital spending will hinder accelerated growth in recovery.
 Growth is expected to rise to 8.1 percent in 2020, mainly due to higher oil production and exports. Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of higher investment needed to rebuild the infrastructure and private consumption network 
And investment.
However, the recently approved 2019 budget represents a significant increase in recurrent spending. Unless there is a major reorientation in the fiscal policy of the comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to support post-war recovery and long-term development. 
Rising spending, coupled with falling oil prices, would raise the projected budget deficit by 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before cutting it to around 3 percent in 2020-2021. Lower oil prices and increased imports will translate the balance of current transactions into a deficit, partially financed by international reserves. " 
International).
The World Bank, in its November 9, 2018 report, looks to the future with the expectation that Iraq's economy will maintain an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent over the next five years to 2023. 
The report of the Fund (on the prospects of global economic growth), the real GDP growth rate of the Iraqi economy by the end of this year is expected to reach 1.5 percent. 
Economic growth is expected to reach 6.5 percent in 2019. Inflation is likely to stabilize at 2.2 percent this year and next. The IMF and World Bank projections are close and can be adopted for future planning.
Modern capitalist theorists mistake the possibility of shifting from marginal marginal economies in Third World countries. To "capitalist market economy" by applying market laws applied in capital systems in developed industrial countries. 
Perhaps the economies of Arab oil-exporting countries are examples of those countries whose governments dominate most of the production of goods and services relying on financial resources from oil exports as a basis for financing spending
 General. 
In other words, we can not find the same foundations that can be converted from semi-total systems to market systems between day and night. Iraq's economy may be a model of realities and components to sort out conditions of an era of political instability 
Economic development.
I wrote dozens of articles on the development of the Iraqi economy after 2003 and most of them reviewed the obstacles that make its development a major challenge to the government. And not a repetition or re-describing the reality of the Iraqi economy, but constructive criticism must reach the decision makers in the legislative and executive authorities 
And judicial. 
The challenges of the Iraqi economy have been diagnosed and the government should be aware of them. It must be emphasized that confronting these challenges requires specialized expertise in all sectors of the economy in decision-making in the three authorities.
Iraq at the moment requires a government of expertise and is the way to achieve progress and manage the country's resources on the basis of knowledge and loyalty to Iraq. 
The minister is not specialized in the affairs of his ministry and he has no experience in managing them. He can pass on a lot of malicious manipulation of his corrupt employees. Under-Secretary, Director General and Chairman of the Commission 
Enterprise.  
In a brief study published on the website of "Informatics News Network" on June 27, 2018 for Alkadtur Sadiq Hussein Al-Rikabi (Economist "London"), which included the reality of the Iraqi economy and possibilities of its development through the integration of economic sectors and the development of the legal environment and private sector participation and the application of a new vision for the oil sector and natural resources Council , Development of work in the sectors of agriculture, industry, transport, communications, tourism, reconstruction, banks and other productive and service sectors, activating banking and investment activity, and developing a realistic tax system within the framework of fair and strict regulatory systems. And the adjustment of monetary policy under the supervision of the Central Bank to achieve monetary policy consistent with the development plans and regulate the market selling currencies and strengthen the role of the Central Bank in the control of the work of banks and invest cash reserves in line with international changes. The study included valuable proposals for the development of the Iraqi economy.                                  
 The following paragraph is necessary to recall the dictates of dictatorships and totalitarian regimes. Let it take the article into a coherent formula
 For his goal.
 One of the most important reasons for the collapse of the regimes of "totalitarian dictatorship" is lying to the self and portraying reality in what is not. The flags of these countries were politicized and controlled by the security services of the systems and their intelligence, used to exaggerate and reflect the reality of the local economic reality 
The poor.
 And silence the voice raised criticizing either to be killed or deposited in prison cellars. Saddam's rule may be Baath. Mubarak, Egypt and other Arab regimes ruled this out. Therefore, one of the most important developments of development is to hear constructive criticism, not hypocrisy.
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  • 2 weeks later...

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2019/05/01 14:35
  • Number of readings 12
  • Section: Iraq
  •  

Iraq is discussing with the World Bank a number of infrastructure projects and e-government

Baghdad / Al-Masala: On Wednesday, May 1, 2019, the Iraqi Ministry of Communications discussed with the delegation of the World Bank the reality of communications in Iraq and means of upgrading it, in addition to discussing a number of infrastructure projects and "e-government". 

"The Minister of Communications, Naeem Thajil Al-Rubaie, received in his office a delegation of the World Bank, which included the implementation group of the infrastructure, with the membership of Yara Al-Salem, Marola Haddad and Mark Lixi," a ministry statement said. 

The two sides reviewed the reality of communications in Iraq and how to improve it. Al-Rubaie raised the challenges faced by the ministry in the development of telecommunications services and digital applications in Iraq. The most important of these are the absence of regulations and laws that limit violations, in addition to the destruction of infrastructure caused by the organizations Terrorist organization. "

The statement added that "at the outset of the meeting, the delegation of the World Bank announced the support of the Bank to the Ministry of Communications during the next phase, which came efforts of the Minister of Communications and discussions at the recent Washington conference." 

Pointing out that "the World Bank promised to support small projects and infrastructure projects and e-government, as well as the assessment of the current infrastructure of optical cable, in addition to providing technical consultations and the preparation of studies for the purpose of submission to the Council of Ministers." 

The statement added that "the World Bank decided to introduce the Ministry of Communications within the plan to support the bank, the Ministry of Communications outside the plan of the World Bank over the past years."

The obelisk

http://almasalah.com/ar/news/170046/العراق-يبحث-مع-البنك-الدولي-عددا-من-مشاريع-البنى-التحتية-والحكومة-الإلكترونية

 
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One of the most important reasons for the collapse of the regimes of "totalitarian dictatorship" is lying to the self and portraying reality in what is not. The flags of these countries were politicized and controlled by the security services of the systems and their intelligence, used to exaggerate and reflect the reality of the local economic reality 

 

I know those who wish to have the dinar return to the former glory it was before the war, but Sadam was the one who set the rate at that time. Speculators at the time came to the conclusion that the dinar was worth half of the over 1 USD to over 3 dinars at that time. At the time it was fooling the world and lying to the self by portraying a value of its currency of which in reality it was not. This is one of the arguments for a lower than a par value rate with the dollar when it RVs.

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for many years prior to saddam's dictatorship the iqd was never below 2 to 1 against the usd , saddam put the above 3 to 1 inflated iqd rate when he began running the iqd in the ground , the reason i speculated was because of past historic values over a very long term period  that being said , there is no guarantee for anything in this venture 

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  • yota691 changed the title to Economic view of 2020

Economic view of 2020

Sunday, December 22, 2019 65

Economic view of 2020

 
Mohammed Sharif Abu Maysam
 
In its report issued on the ninth of last November, the World Bank expected that the Iraqi economy would achieve a growth rate of 5.1 percent in the year 2020, after regaining its health in the first half of this year and the gross domestic product recorded a growth rate of 4.8 percent, ending the situation Deflation in 2017 and 2018.
This expectation and others that the World Bank mentioned in its report, are based on the increase in crude oil production, which rose by 6.3 percent, in the period adopted by the report, which indicated the possibilities of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product to 2.7 percent in the year 2021 based on his expectations regarding market prospects. Oil, which sees features depicting lower prices and exports due to lower global demand and the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of OPEC's agreement to adhere to export ceilings.
However, what is remarkable in the report, is the reference to the state of recovery in non-oil economic activity, which rose by 5.6 percent in the first half of the year 2019, and which contributed to the high rate of growth compared to the same period in the previous year, according to the report.
In this indication, it bodes well for the potential development of the non-oil sectors performance, while devoting the successes achieved in the existing projects, which will be a reason to encourage local capital to invest in new projects after ensuring commitment to the local product protection policy pursued by some sectoral ministries, specifically the Ministry of Agriculture, which Its successful policy has led to the restoration of life in the sectors of the poultry industry, food industries, covered agriculture, date production, and others related to fruit production domestically, as well as projects for the production of fish by closed roads and floating cages, which Draw on the activity of other sectors, foremost of which is the local transport sector, the banking sector that contributed to the granting of loans and the circulation of financial deposits, and other support sectors, as well as the employment of manpower that can get a million jobs in the poultry industry sector only, according to union officials Poultry producers.
Consequently, the escalating pace of work by protecting the national product and encouraging the local investor to use its financial capabilities in the Iraqi interior, protecting it from bureaucracy and corruption, and activating legitimate laws, such as competition regulation, antitrust and labor laws, social security, and the correct application of the customs tariff law, and protecting the local product And consumer protection, given the urgent need for job opportunities, we can reach more growth rates than the World Bank expects, even if its reading about the drop in oil prices in 2021 is true.
 
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  • yota691 changed the title to Arab Barometer Report: Growing Perceptions Of Corruption In Arab Countries
 
 

Salma Al-Shami

 

Senior research specialist, Arab Barometer

 

There is a common complaint that has deep roots in the slogans that echo during recent protests around the world, especially the Arab world, namely corruption. The Arab masses gathered to denounce the violations that prevail in the political and economic structures, which are manifested in the end in manifestations that disrupt daily life, such as the garbage crisis in Lebanon, the support of bread and fuel in Sudan, or the lack of job opportunities and basic services in Iraq.

Although these grievances have recently reached their climax, research data for the Arab barometer have shown a general trend at the region level indicating increased complaints of corruption over the past decade. At the level of the Middle East and North Africa region, the proportion of those reporting the existence of large or medium-term corruption in state institutions increased from 78% in 2010 to 84% in 2019. This increase was prominent in Tunisia and Jordan.

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Simultaneously, the percentage of the Arab public that reported that their governments tackle corruption in general remained unchanged, as it revolved around 40%. On the other hand, according to the polls conducted in Tunisia and Jordan, the percentage of public opinion that the government addresses corruption has decreased from 64 and 54% to 44 and 45%, respectively.

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Not surprisingly, then, corruption has emerged as one of the major obstacles facing the region. And corruption is among the most important problems in 2019, unprecedented only in economic conditions. 17% of Arab citizens stated that corruption is the most important challenge facing their countries, while 19% mentioned it second on the list of the most important reasons. On the other hand, corruption in both Iraq and Kuwait is a more pressing issue than economic conditions, with 32% of Iraqis and 42% of Kuwaitis describing it as the most important challenge.

 

Basic services

As was reported in the chants of the demonstrators, the poor provision of basic services or the lack of them in the college is among the clearest and most prominent effects of corruption. The Arab Barometer included early indications of these grievances, before the start of the recent wave of demonstrations, especially in the areas of education and health care services.

A minority of citizens (42%) express their satisfaction with the educational system in their countries, and the same percentage (42%) see the need to pay a bribe to government employees to obtain better educational services.

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Iraqis, in particular, express dissatisfaction with the education system, with only 26% contented with expressing their satisfaction, while the majority of Iraqis (52%) believe that a bribe is necessary to obtain a better education. Likewise, while the proportion of citizens satisfied with the educational systems in Egypt and Lebanon is close to the average of the region, half or more of the half in both countries - up to 63% in Lebanon and 60% in Egypt - reported that bribes are necessary to obtain services Better educational.

Lack of dissatisfaction is most prominent in the area of health care services. The percentage of citizens in the region who are satisfied with health care services in their countries does not exceed 38%, and this number drops to 20% in Libya and Morocco. Meanwhile, 47% at the regional level believe that it is necessary to pay a bribe to obtain better health care services, and this percentage rises to 69% among those surveyed in Egypt and 64% in Morocco.

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Satisfaction with health services in the Middle East and North Africa

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Jobs

The Arab public is very concerned about the stagnation of economies and the lack of new job opportunities. In 2010, when a really low percentage of the population (25%) reported that their government was doing well in creating jobs, in 2019 this proportion fell to 18%. The percentage of those who declared the effectiveness of their governments in creating jobs is very low in Lebanon and Iraq, not exceeding 4% and 6%, respectively.

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The situation is made worse by unequal access to jobs, as it is widely believed that the use of wasta (favoritism or influence) in obtaining a job represents a form of corruption (83%), and likewise a large number (88%) at the regional level believe that obtaining work Through wasta, it happens often or sometimes.

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Overall government assessments

The people of the region see the basic services provided to them such as education and health care poor, and believe that bribery is necessary to get better quality. The Arab masses look negatively at the performance of their governments in creating job opportunities, and say that favoritism or intermediation, which leads to leapfrogging the criterion of efficiency or formal procedures, has become very common, if not frequent.

These assessments may provide an explanation for why only four out of ten Arab citizens (41%) agree that their governments do everything in their power to provide the necessary services, while almost a quarter (26%) believe that political leaders are concerned with the needs of citizens. Arab citizens are fed up with this system, which they see as influential people manipulating them. Thus, tackling real corruption is not only a necessary step to meet the protesters' demands, but also ensures improving the quality of governance and public administration for the benefit of citizens across the region.

 

Source: The World Bank

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