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Adam Montana

Adam Montana Weekly 23 March 2019

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A few months ago I posted a well received article by a very smart young man I know who is in the financial industry. He recently sent me these articles which, to me, make a lot of sense. 

Iraq does not, still, have a complete government and they do not have all of their banking laws in place...anyway, here are the articles, they are from someone who's been mentioned here before, Kaperoni.

 

11-28-2018 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Iraq will float the dinar allowing market forces to dictate. As investment comes into Iraq, the exchange rate will rise. Balassa-Samuelson effect! I think most of us would be happy if the dinar ever equaled the dollar. It may, but not overnight. I want to remind people that the new Iraqi government with PM Mahdi is not official yet. Until the new Prime Minister completes his cabinet and parliament votes (confirms) them in. I do not expect any significant reforms to move forward until the government is official. I also do not expect the IMF to hold their Article IV Consultation with Iraq until the gov is official…as these reviews usually require gov commitments.

 

3-12-2019 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Many think the dinar could never free float and must be some sort of manage float. They may be right! I ...do not really care what type of float it is other than that is how monetary policy works, floats are a tool that the CBI uses to counter pressure.Random acts like RV's RI's etc are not tools the CBI uses so we can rule such an event out. As well there are other reasons like money supply, economic shock that prevent such an event from ever happening. If they do float (which they will) the float will begin at whatever the current rate is at..such as 1190. The reason is simple...any other value would be a RV of sorts and not be within the tools the CBI uses. Not to mention, it would circumvent the CBI's ability to profit from the buy/sell of currency commissions. Which after all, is what the CBI is in the business of...making money. Central banks every single day control the sale of their currency to make money.

 

3-12-2019 Newshound Guru Kaperoni As for how fast the dinar could rise...just look back at 2004-2005 when the CBI under Dr. Shabibi unpegged for about 6 months and reduced inflation from about 33% to 5% or less raising the dinar exchange rate from near 3000 / $1 to 1170 /$1. This demonstrates the pace the dinar once again could have during the investment/market economy phase. But again, this process is up to how fast investors/investment comes to Iraq. It is not a random act. Again, many articles on this process to read from the IMF and other organization. ...Remember this is not some idea I came up with. The professionals at the IMF that work directly with Iraq have documented that is their intention for the CBI and the dinar.

 

3-12-2019 Newshound Guru Kaperoni There are two ways to interpret what the CBI is talking about when they mention "deletion of zeros. It may be honest and part of the plan (when they interpretation of what they really mean applies) or it may simply be the CBI trying to diffuse speculation and speculators from buying the dinar. There is no way to know for sure until they open the economy and we find out. I have read articles that imply deleting 3 zeros is a LOP and others that imply that they will raise the value gradually down to the day the dinar is worth the same as the dollar...which implies a float and exchange rate improvement. Personally, I believe from my research the dinar will improve in value via float and that seems to coincide with Dr. Bakri in Iraq who has written me several times to discuss monetary policy...

These articles are simply stating that the government is going to begin to take action (like passing laws) which will have an effect on the CBI (and exchange rate). IMO, Still weeks maybe months. Exciting news for sure but this still takes time. First we need the laws, then the investors/investment, then pressure on the capital account at the CBI, then the float to offset that pressure. Remember...the CBI is in control of monetary policy. And the government is in control of activating investment/investors. The tool the CBI uses to combat inflation is to float the dinar. This all takes time.

Edited by fredst
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Thank You for the warranted upbeat post, Adam, AND The Very Best Of The Rest Of Your Weekend AND Up Coming Week To You!!! :tiphat:

 

From the looks of things, maybe BABY we'll finally see the "fabled" "RV" "Text" THIS week!!!

 

:o       :o       :o

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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Thank you Adam for the updates on the latest developments on the dinar 👍,and a great Sunday to you also!

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4 minutes ago, lmb4321 said:

Thanks Adam and continued Great Travels wherever you are!!!.....Go RV 1st Quarter 2019.....

I'll be happy with 2nd quarter...and thanks again Adam!

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31 minutes ago, juliebug said:

I'll be happy with 2nd quarter...and thanks again Adam!

Our next window is anytime now up to ramadhan. Iraqis need cash for ramadhan as well as for eid fitr. 

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5 hours ago, fredst said:

A few months ago I posted a well received article by a very smart young man I know who is in the financial industry. He recently sent me these articles which, to me, make a lot of sense. 

Iraq does not, still, have a complete government and they do not have all of their banking laws in place...anyway, here are the articles, they are from someone who's been mentioned here before, Kaperoni.

 

 

Boy I sure hope Adam consulted with Kaperoni before making his post.  I mean we all should look at what Katie45, I mean Kap says first.

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56 minutes ago, Botzwana said:

I mean we all should look at what Katie45, I mean Kap says first.

 

He/She Don’t Know Krap ! :o 

 

 

 

Even All 3 Members Of His Site Are Starting To Tune Him Out ...

 

:D  :D  :D 

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9 minutes ago, DinarThug said:

 

He/She Don’t Know Krap ! :o 

 

 

 

Even All 3 Members Of His Site Are Starting To Tune Him Out ...

 

:D  :D  :D 

I know my eyesight is gone due to being blind...but now my ears are tuning out too?!?

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4 hours ago, savoy8060 said:

Lets hope the NSA doesn't meddle again

Nobody needs to meddle with this for Iraq to screw it up 

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Adam,

 

Should I infer that you are not as set that an explicit HCL will/should be passed before any fundamental currency actions would be taken by the CBI? In both the distant, and recent, past, you have been pretty adamant that you wanted to see a stable GOI, steadily increasing oil price, and an HCL. Once those were in place, we should look for RV really soon (as opposed to "soon" :lol:)

 

Are you still looking for that HCL prior to an RV and if not, why not?

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Adam, question for you.  Since Iraq can't give US Dollars to Iran what currency did they use to start paying Iran?  And if it was dinar do you really think this will revalue because Iran will come out smelling like a rose if it were to revalue ? 

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1 hour ago, DFlat7 said:

Hey Adam! Oil just got to 60.18 

 

Oh yah!

Edited by olivesman
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Saudi Arabia wants 70.  Let’s see what happens. I was trading oil stocks up this morning. Nice little run. 

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I got emotional filling my truck today..... I was so conflicted.... on the one hand I was ticked it cost $80 for a fill up.... on the other hand, I thought.... Adam told me once oil gets over $60 a barrel it’s go time..... 🤞🏻 

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