Guest views are now limited to 12 pages. If you get an "Error" message, just sign in! If you need to create an account, click here.

Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Laid Back

Why I believe our wait will be longer.

Recommended Posts

Thank you Laid Back, I concur with your thesis on Iraq. Your research is spot on. I , like you and everyone would like to see it happen

now but I believe they will drag this into 1'st quarter 2020 or longer. Hope I am wrong. Been here a long time, they've made great

progress but yet more needs to be done like you have pointed out.  Thank you for your great research. We wait and hope.

Namaste 🙏

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wildeman said:

Thank you Laid Back, I concur with your thesis on Iraq. Your research is spot on. I , like you and everyone would like to see it happen

now but I believe they will drag this into 1'st quarter 2020 or longer. Hope I am wrong. Been here a long time, they've made great

progress but yet more needs to be done like you have pointed out.  Thank you for your great research. We wait and hope.

Namaste 🙏

 

59 minutes ago, DinarDavo said:

 

Would have to agree.  :twocents:

 

Thanks for your inputs wildeman and DinarDavo,

Been here long time too. I agree, they have made a lot of progress in the last years but like you said, more needs to be done.

I hope they get it done by the first quarter of 2020. All the latest news are pointing out to an open market economy with an

international  recognized currency. The world is watching and waiting.!

 

Go RV asap

Go $1:1+

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Laid Back said:

 

Today its been 6 months since I started this thread, as we all can see no RV yet.

 

- The government is not fully seated yet. 

Minister of Education, Vice-presidents and special grades

 

- Important Laws

More than 150 important laws need to be voted and passed including HCL and Art140.

 

- WTO membership 

Ongoing conversation to join the world trade organization. Iraq has signed trade agreements with many countries.

 

- CBI and Banking System 

The CBI and Banking system continues moving forward to an open market economy 

the daily auctions still going on around $200 millions a day.

 

- Corruption 

The fight against corruption continues some political parties are threatening the GOI to bring chaos if their corruption is exposed.

 

- Private sector and Diversification of the economy 

They are promoting and financing the private sector with the small and medium enterprises program from the CBI and private banks.

 

- Oil

The Iraqi oil production is increasing, Oil exports are increasing, oil prices

WTI $57.65. Brent crude $62.50

 

- Census 2020

They haven’t had a Census in the last 30 years, they need to know the size of population.very important for the HCL implementation, profit sharing, to make planning decisions, to forecast possible economic need, to formulate economic policy

and determines population density. 

 

The CBI is moving forward to raise the value of the IQD... This is a fact.!

 

I want the RV ASAP like everybody else, but I’m also ready to wait a little longer. I see a window of opportunity in the last quarter 2019 first quarter 2020. Leaning towards first quarter 2020.

 

Enjoy the present, your life your family your friend. It will happen

 

Go RV asap

Go $1:1

 

 

 

Excellent summary Laid Back!  I look forward and appreciate your comments on this.  It does appear we may have a few more months to go.  Lets hope it comes on 1/1/20 or soon thereafter. :tiphat:

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, WheresmyRV? said:

Excellent summary Laid Back!  I look forward and appreciate your comments on this.  It does appear we may have a few more months to go.  Lets hope it comes on 1/1/20 or soon thereafter. :tiphat:

Thanks for your input WheresmyRV,

Totally agree, it does appear we may have a few more months to wait.

Hoping for an RV sooner than later.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we are pretty close to this happening.  I have never made a prediction or given a window that I can remember.  I think within 2 months in my opinion.  There are way too many positive meetings going on, articles about notes and coins,  formation of the government will be finished soon,  more debt forgiveness and reconstruction of infrastructure will soon start which will take dinar (with a higher value) to do so.  IMO.

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, cranman said:

I think we are pretty close to this happening.  I have never made a prediction or given a window that I can remember.  I think within 2 months in my opinion.  There are way too many positive meetings going on, articles about notes and coins,  formation of the government will be finished soon,  more debt forgiveness and reconstruction of infrastructure will soon start which will take dinar (with a higher value) to do so.  IMO.

Thanks for your input my friend cranman,

I agree that there are many positives news.

In the last years iraq has moved forward like never before

I hope you are right and we see the RV in the next two months. 

My window of opportunity for an RV continues to be the same, last quarter 2019 first quarter 2020.

 

Go RV sooner than later 

Go $1:1+

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rationality in politics… Adil Abdul Mahdi reaps the fruits for Iraq.

 

%D9%82%D8%B7%D9%81-%D8%AB%D9%85%D8%A7%D8

It seems that the meetings of the Iraqi Council of Representatives next week will witness serious discussions on the impact of the levels of US-Iranian escalation in the region, and the effects of that escalation on Iraq, there are three important issues will be raised on the sessions of the Council , the first : the file of the exit of US forces and the international coalition from Iraq, and the second : Concerning the discussion of the strategic framework agreement signed between the United States of America and Iraq, since its signing until now, it is not clear who is responsible for the protection of Iraqi airspace, whether it is an Iraqi responsibility, or it is an American responsibility, and the third file: concerns the possibility of accountability and questioning the staff of the Iraqi government ministers or some of them.
With regard to the exit of US troops from Iraq, it is known that Iraq’s money from oil revenues is kept in the US Federal Reserve Board, which is responsible for the money of Iraq, and in this context, a law or resolution issued by the House of Representatives in the direction of the removal of US troops from Iraq, may push the administration of President Donald Trump, through the US Treasury Department, to impose harsh and multilateral measures ,for example all Iraqi money will be subject to prosecution. It is now protected by presidential decree based on the security agreement between Iraq and the United States, and in the case of abolition , the reparations file , as well as accusations against Iraq of supporting terrorism, and the losses of US companies before 2003 will be reopened , and Iraqi funds will be withheld until the cases are resolved, let alone stop sending the dollar currency to Iraq, which will stop many obligations, and Iraq will be unable within two to three months to pay the salaries of its employees, especially those of embassies abroad, and Iraq’s international obligations and obligations towards companies, especially oil companies, and the country will be in a state of complete paralysis, similar to the days of the siege in the nineties of the last century, with a slight difference, taking such a step is playing with fire and undue risk.

The Iraqi Council of Representatives must think deeply before taking any decision or law that may constitute a devastation on the security and economy of Iraq, and that its decisions and laws are in harmony with the higher interests of the Iraqi people, and not at the interests of the US or Iran, it is a House of Representatives representing the Iraqi people under the dome of the Council does not represent Tehran or Washington by proxy, the Iraqi people will not accept to be locked in decisions or laws that increase their economic suffering, if the Iraqi Council of Representatives issues that resolution or law, everyone in Iraq is a loser and the Iraqi political class in the forefront .
Therefore, there must be a dialogue between the financial, security and defense committees emanating from the House of Representatives, the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Central Bank to reach political, legal and economic understandings to avoid Iraq risks.
As for the strategic framework agreement, so far it is ambiguous between the Iraqi government and the Iraqi Council of Representatives on the one hand, and the United States of America on the other hand, on the body responsible for the protection of Iraqi airspace, according to the strategic framework does not have a legal formula that indicates that the United States of America is responsible to protect the airspace and there is no legal formula that Iraq may ask the United States to provide assistance to protect Iraqi airspace.
According to some observers of the Iraqi issue that the Strategic Framework Agreement and the withdrawal of forces signed in 2008, confirmed the responsibility of US forces to protect the airspace of Iraq at altitude of 45 thousand feet, but below that, it is the responsibility of the Iraqi government, and that all drones – Aldron – fly within a range less than 45,000 feet, which is within the responsibility of the Iraqi government.
Therefore, the Iraqi government and the US administration represented by its embassy in Baghdad must put the points on the letters to know the limits of that agreement and the responsibility of each party, and this requires them to be in a high degree of clarity and credibility.
The third file concerns the accountability and questioning of some ministers by Iraqi Council of Representatives, which may amount to the dismissal or resignation of Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi.
Everyone knows that there is a political crisis between the “Popular Crowd” and the institutions of the Iraqi state, and speculation about the future of the Iraqi government, considering that the government of Dr. Adil Abdul Mahdi came as a result of a parliamentary settlement between the two largest parliamentary blocs: «Saroon» led by Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr, and «al-Fatih» Led by Hadi al-Amiri, backed by the Popular Crowd , after a parliamentary-judicial debate over naming the largest bloc, which is constitutionally entitled to nominate the prime minister, some Iraqi parties went on to consider that an international regional settlement protecting the government was nearing its end as a result of escalating Iranian – American tension in the region, which reflected directly on the relationship of the “crowd” with the government, and its refusal to abide by its decisions, especially on how to respond to air strikes to its bases, but the attempts of the “crowd” rebellion against state institutions quickly turned into an internal crisis between his poles, showed his lack of cohesion and revealed the conflict of currents weakened his position in front of the Iraqi majority demand to confine arms to the hands of the state and adhere to Iraqi sovereign decisions.
However, this crisis and this conflict between the poles of the government gave the PM a new maneuver margin, which enables him to fortify his position, and improve his conditions, after the attempts of the settlement parties to impose its agenda on the work of the government, at a critical stage where the level of criticism of the government increased, and the call to account it is risen, ten days after of its formation in October last year.
The Iraqi constitution guaranteed the Iraqi parliament the right to question and accountable the Iraqi government, and it is the government in which its ministries accused of corruption issues, and who accuse the government of this, are already members of that government, while Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi does not have a minister in the ministry or a deputy in the House of Representatives calculated on his political current, then who is the corrupt ?!
However, Adil Abdel Mahdi scores important points in his favor, easing the pressure on him, giving him an opportunity that may not be repeated, helping him to rearrange his priorities, and move faster steps towards achieving some slogans of reform, and independence, although they are limited, in making decisions, taking advantage of a group of political factors that are floated above the surface of settlement noting that a wide segments of the Iraqi street in all its categories and colors are betting on its ability to expand the margin of his move and liberate it from internal and regional constraints .He is an important reformist warrior for years against the big and funny restrictions imposed by the hardliners inside and outside the Iraqi parliament.
At this critical stage in Iraq’s history, he is in dire need of a multidimensional roadmap to get out of his crises, the threatening and intimidating approach does not address deep crises in the body of the Iraqi political system, but are tools that may be legal to gain time or temporary gain only. The body promises accountability and interrogation of the ministry, and may reach the level of dismissal, is the holder of the positions and privileges in it, and is also the body that runs the ministry through its economic offices.
In practice, Iraqi concern over the future of the government is rising, and at this stage neither society nor political parties or elites are ready to enter into a political vacuum that may occur as a result of the overthrow of the government and the difficulty of choosing an alternative if it is impossible. For the sake of the prosperity of Iraq , Iraqis have to stand by the reformist warrior, Adil Abdul Mahdi, who, through his rational policies, managed to spare Iraq from entering the US-Iran conflict, which is witnessing a relative breakthrough, and with his good national stance in avoiding polarization in the US-Iranian conflict, Adil Abdul Mahdi feels his strong position because he is aware deeply that this conflict must end at the negotiating table, and that Iraq not be the loser of that conflict, Iraq is in his reign has good relations with both Washington and Tehran. Therefore, we reiterate that all Iraqi political forces should stand by Adil Abdul Mahdi in order that Iraq to reap the fruits of its rational policies at home and abroad.

Iraqi Studies Unit

Rawabet Center for Research

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LB, thank you for posting articles and your well thought out analysis!  The process has been as slow as the formation of oil, but good things are happening!  Staying grounded with your help.  Thanks again!

  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, aj1 said:

LB, thank you for posting articles and your well thought out analysis!  The process has been as slow as the formation of oil, but good things are happening!  Staying grounded with your help.  Thanks again!

You are welcome aj1,

I agree, good things are happening.

I was thinking the Saudi Arabia drone attack, the US economic sanctions on Iran and Venezuela 

could be a golden opportunity for Iraq to cover the oil deficits and increase the dinar exchange rate.

 

Go iraq

Go oil production 

Go oil exports 

Go RV

Go $1:1+

 

In my Opinion October 01 and January 01/20 are two days to watch.

 

Edited by Laid Back
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/10/2019 at 8:57 PM, one2one said:

right now i would cash in for a ONE PENNY RV :

meaning that my $3000 investment turns into $ 30,000

Hell, I'm hoping I have to pay $30,000 in taxes.  Even under Adams watchful eye.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iraqi health minister resigns; integrity and corruption incompatible.

%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
The Iraqi Minister of Health, Alaa al-Din Alwan, is one of the technocratic ministers in the Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi’s government and does not belong to any political party. He resigns after a continuous effort to reform and rebuild the health system in Iraq.
On 12-9-2019, Alwan presented his resignation, which was a cry of protest against the pressures, extortion and defamation suffered by the corrupt .He was assigned as the Minister of Health on October 24, 2018, who was a believer in the reform work of the government, and in order to re-establish a solid vision and a clear road map to improve health conditions and the environment, and to work resolutely to meet and face the challenges, accumulated since the past three decades, financial and administrative corruption that has exhausted the management of the health sector in Iraq.
Alwan’s policy was characterized by a successful future vision, reliance on sound planning in identifying the problem, and developing appropriate solutions to the exceptional circumstances experienced by Iraq, as Alwan relies on strategic guidance in the fight against administrative corruption that prevailed in the Iraqi Ministry of Health, in light of the difficult financial funding , and great challenges in fighting corruption and corrupt in this vital sector.
One of the most important achievements of the Minister of Health Alaa Eddin Alwan, which was planned in a thoughtful scientific manner, clear strategy, and scientific methodology, unprecedented by any one before him , in the start of the reform process adopted by him , despite the short period in which he took over the management of the ministry, where the Ministry prepared a review and in-depth study of Health status and to identify challenges.
.The review was based on a scientific study of health indicators, and a specialized evaluation of the basic health programs of the ministry, with the participation of a large number of consultants from inside and outside Iraq, in addition to experts of international organizations leading health work in the world.
. Presented a document issued by the Ministry of Health and Environment in May 2019 that accurately diagnoses the health situation in Iraq, and where the real weaknesses and dysfunctions of the tragic state of health lies , including the low priority of health in government allocations, lack of spending on health, and serious decline in the services provided to the Iraqi citizen who lives in the richest country of the world.
• The document also provided a comprehensive strategic vision and roadmap for health system reform in Iraq, and if implemented and applied on the ground, it could have been the cornerstone for lifting the low health reality.
• Basra province .. A comprehensive study has been prepared to assess the health situation in the province, and how to address the persistent contaminants of well water in Iraq, where for the first time, an integrated database for the contaminated sectors has been prepared, specifying the quality, quantity and source of waste and sewage being dumped in wells, and preparing a comprehensive national plan to reduce water resources pollutants started by some government sectors during the past months with the support of the Council of Ministers.
• Establishing a mechanism to monitor the pollution of the Tigris, Euphrates and Shatt al-Arab rivers, which work periodically every month, based on tests conducted by Ministry of Health laboratories periodically, and the government was acquainted about the achievements during the first six months of its work.
• He worked to achieve drug security, where the ministry worked under the management of Alwan to provide medicines for emergency life-saving needs, most of which have been absent from health institutions for several years, through the organization of the pharmaceutical sector, and the supply of medicines to get out of sudden dangerous drug crises, which the Ministry has come a long way to achieve the flow of medicines where the Ministry of Health has initiated, in cooperation with other sectors, border outlets, customs, security institutions and the pharmacy union, to implement an integrated plan to deal with drug chaos in the private sector, including control of border outlets, and taking new patents and methods in the registration of medicines and companies and pricing of medicines, and strengthen the inspection and monitoring devices to preserve the life of the Iraqi citizen.
• Resumption of work in the major hospitals (Turkish and German) that have been contracted for more than ten years, which faced problems that led to a complete cessation of work in the past four years.
• The period of Alwan management of the ministry was characterized by high professionalism, despite the challenges that threaten the national security of the country.
• Addressing the misuse of public funds, resisting administrative corruption and strengthening the fair administration of the Ministry.
• During the minister’s work, the Ministry, with the support of the Council of Ministers, removed the financial burdens that citizens pay for health services by abolishing most of the wages, which were imposed in previous years, which was a major impediment and financial burden for the poor Iraqi citizen to receive health service.
• The Ministry started preparing the health insurance project with the Health and Environment Committee in the Iraqi Council of Representatives.
The most important obstacles facing his ministerial work :
-Political interventions and pressures in the work of the ministry.
– Those whose interest is incompatible with this reform and change.
• Those who do not want Iraq to rise and return to its prestigious position among the countries of the region in its scientific achievements and innovation.
-Those affected by this reform and the transparency of good work who resorted to cheap means by distorting the facts in the media and social media pages and used all their tools to stop the reform process of the health sector, as it is contrary to their corrupt ambitions to destroy Iraq and the people.
Al-Alwan said: I reached a firm conviction that it would not be possible to continue working in these circumstances, and my resignation actually started last Thursday (September 12, 2019).
Alwan had submitted his resignation on February 19, 2019, but the prime minister refused the resignation , and a number of heads of political forces persuaded him to step down as well.
Al-Alwan said: I reached a firm conviction that it is not possible to continue working in these circumstances, and thanked Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi for his trust and recommendations and continued support for the health and environmental sector, and for backing him personally during the performance of his work in the past months, and this indicates his keenness and integrity and not sticking to the position. The gangs of corruption and destruction did not give the professional and impartial minister the opportunity to work and clean the health from distortion and corruption and save the Iraqis.
The resignation of Health Minister Alaeddin Alwan, confirms the integrity and professionalism of the minister, which is incompatible with the party and the power of the corrupt and control over important joints in the Iraqi state.
But what to do? Will it be the corrupt who control the country’s capabilities? When do we get up with Iraq?
Aladdin Alwan is an honorable example that needs support and cooperation to continue the march of reform, and to be followed as an example by honorable people.. We need to join together all honorable and loyal people to change the bitter reality, and amputate the hands of evil that tamper with the honest and honorable people.. To stand together against evil…

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 2020 budget… Setback for the Iraqi economic reality.

%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
The Iraqi economy suffers today from the great challenges represented in the high volume of the debt, and the payment of its dues and benefits, and the high deficit rate, and up to frightening figures, and economists emphasize that the reason is financial and administrative corruption and mismanagement of wealth, and these funds go into the pockets of parties to finance their activities instead of sustainable development.
The head of the parliamentary reform and reconstruction bloc, MP Sabah al-Saadi, said that the amount of money allocated in the federal public budgets for the past fifteen years is huge and frightening, and that the problem of Iraq is not in the money but in poor management, calling on the Anti-Corruption Council that starting point in these budgets be the trial of those who caused the waste and theft of the money, they were as follows:

1.jpg

2.jpg

Tables (specific to the Rawabet center). The chart shows the allocations from 2005 to 2019.
From 2005 to this year, it reached (1,515,085,417) trillion Iraqi dinars, equivalent to nearly ($ 1.262,500 billion dollars), while the total investment budgets for the same years (419 trillion Iraqi dinars) »
The Ministry of Finance has started writing the final draft of the federal budget law for 2020, whose revenues were estimated at 139 trillion dinars, to calculate the sale price of crude oil at 53 US dollars. The law also includes paragraphs to pay foreign debts estimated at (20) billion dollars, and exacerbated the budget deficit exacerbated after it has exceeded the 72 trillion dinar barrier.
According to a member of the Finance Committee Jamal Cougar that “the federal budget for 2020 will allocate between $ 15 to $ 20 billion to pay the dues and benefits of external debt owed on the Iraqi state,” stressing that his committee “will put a paragraph in the new budget, which prevents the government from external borrowing.”
Because of the country’s fragile economy, which does not tolerate more external borrowing, which involves the risk of easing subsidies for the poor, raising the prices of oil derivatives, increasing taxes and others, the Parliamentary Finance added a clause in which the government was prevented from external borrowing, considering these types of borrowing as a risk on the future generations and threaten the existence of the state economy.

Debt accumulation:
As a result of the rampant corruption in the institutions of the Iraqi state, Iraq’s foreign debts have accumulated in recent years on the one hand, and the previous governments resorted to the policy of external borrowing which has increased their deficit, on the other.
Economists assert that the foreign debt currently – according to the International Monetary Fund – $ 85.3 billion, and includes the dues of foreign companies working in the energy sector and the purchase of electricity and gas from Iran, while the internal debt is $ 40 billion, mostly to the Central Bank and the three government banks (Rafidain and Rashid and Iraqi Trade ,and the National Retirement Authority).
Iraq today owes the Gulf States an amount of approximately $ 41 billion borrowed by the former political regime, in addition to the debt of the Paris Club countries amounting to $ 9 billion, and Iraqi debt approached the level of the red line to reach 55% of GDP.
Debts are described as “repugnant” The Iraqi state can not “continue on this policy to get rid of the interest of these loans,” and it has become a burden on Iraq without solutions to the problem, “and Iraq needs thirty years to pay it by the government, which will be subject Iraq’s oil capabilities for many years under the mortgage of banks and creditor countries.

The amount of Iraqi indebtedness is very large, and part of it went into the pockets of corrupt and some political parties, through mock projects in the absence of transparency since 2003, as Iraq has become described as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranking 161 out of 168 countries in the classification of corruption, and that the high rate of corruption in it has become a reason for the waste of resources and wealth and the lack of utilization and investment.

Corruption fosters budget deficit:
The size of the federal budget for 2020 is estimated at 139 trillion dinars, calculated at the price of a barrel of oil sale of $ 53, but “these figures are preliminary and will be subject to reduction or increase depending on variables.” The two governments , Federal and the Kurdistan region are working through technical committees to settle all controversial issues related to the export of oil and payment of financial dues for inclusion in the 2020 Budget Law.
The MP for the State of Law coalition (Dawlat al-Qanoon) Abdul Hadi Saadawi said , that “meetings are still going on between the departments of the Ministry of Finance to reduce the federal budget deficit for the next year below 72 trillion dinars,” adding that “there is a large speculative costs sent by ministries and provinces to be included in the budget law.”
Al Saadawi adds: “If all these estimates are taken without amendments by the departments of the Ministry of Finance, will lead to a large deficit in the budget next year,” adding that “it is necessary to have an obligation by the Ministry of Finance to local governments and the Kurdistan region to include all internal revenues in the budget ”.
A parliamentary source said last July the reasons for the growing deficit in the budget of next year are to add (30) thousand elements to the Popular Mobilization Forces and inclusion of contracts, daily wages in all ministries, and the return of those dismissed to the security services.
The deputy of the Parliamentary Finance Committee Ikhlas al-Dulaimi said , that there are debts spent, and the country is obliged to pay its dues and benefits, “These funds did not go for development, but to the pockets of corrupt.”
“The rate of loans in each budget after 2003 is between 20 and 25% of the total budget, because of the failed economic policies of previous governments that are preparing economic plans indiscriminately not based on economists, but on parties and businessmen loyal to them, and tampering with the country’s capabilities through militias ,” Dulaimi said..
Economists also stressed that the problem of Iraq is the absence of control over debt, which made many international organizations refuse to lend directly, but through the support of service projects supervised by them , for fear of financial and administrative corruption.
Bassem Jameel Antoine, Vice President of the Iraqi Economists Association, said, “The problem of Iraq is the weak control, the money that entered the country is estimated at $ 1 trillion in oil since 2003 and it is capable of building the country and not borrowing from any external or internal parties.”
He added, that the problem that accompanied the Iraqi debt is financial and administrative corruption, and part of this debt went to support the financial budget in filling the salaries of employees and public expenditures and others, while there are stalled projects financed from public debt funds, and that the Iraqi generations are owed by large amounts, and that Governments were supposed to think about building a good future for these generations through sustainable development.
We do not forget the most important problem in the Iraqi economy, which is poor planning and management of state funds and the rentier Iraqi economy: It is known that Iraq is governed by the rentier dynamics, which necessitates the deepening of the rentier dependence, which is inevitable only by demolishing the basis that the rentier economy depends on with its four components:
1. The main income of the economy from oil exports.
2. Added Value and local manpower constitute only a small percentage of the total value of oil exports.
3. Oil revenues come from abroad and nothing from domestic investment.
4. Poor planning and investment of rentier income, it goes to the government and often for consumer outlets or financial and administrative corruption, the “theft.”
The Iraqi situation is witnessing chaos or so-called “democracy” and is racing for the acquisition of rentier , in addition to financial and administrative corruption rampant in all rentier countries, which reached its peak in Iraq.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

financial and administrative  corruption!

 

ya, now what. Do they get penalized or get fined. lol 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, jg1 said:

financial and administrative  corruption!

 

ya, now what. Do they get penalized or get fined. lol 

Agreed my friend jg1,

Financial and administrative corruption at all levels is the main problem in Iraq.

 

Go fight against corruption 

Go development 

Go growth 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn’t plan on posting ever again, planned on making money on the Dinar and fading into the sunset. All of this is IMO. The current situation unfolding is to say the least, unsettling. Read an article posted by “ Butifldrm “.  The article was about how under the orders of Khamenei, headed by Soleimani, a regiment was sent from Iran to squash the demonstrations. Basically Iranians sent to kill Iraqis. Iran does not want to lose the Iraqi cash cow.

This is where all of us need to take off the Dinar goggles. I want this whole Dinar thing to pan out at least as much as anyone. The reality of what this article says is an eye opener. 
1) the country of Iraq is in its entirety a Provence of Iran
2) Sadr can say all he wants about how he wants Iran out of Iraq, when in reality he is complicit. ( Iranian just came in to kill Iraqis ). Sadr says he wants the UN to come in for fair elections. There can not be fair elections. He has made an enemy of America, he would not ask for our help. He is backed in a corner. He also has pancreatic cancer. I’m sure he is hoping for his son to take his position if he should pass. 
3) it would literally take a civil war to get Iran out of Iraq. A civil war will not get a reinstatement. Would take years and many lives.
Abadi is the only one who could bring this together in a timely manner.
I was hoping for a 1st of year reinstatement, not looking so good now
 
 
  • Thanks 4
  • Upvote 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yah not looking good in my opinion. I also think China being paid in oil is a big hindrance as they never have to use dinar to pay for anything to china. Bypassing IQD. Maybe we check back 2020. 

  • Thanks 3
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, nfire said:

Yah not looking good in my opinion. I also think China being paid in oil is a big hindrance as they never have to use dinar to pay for anything to china. Bypassing IQD. Maybe we check back 2020. 

They can’t pay using dinar!!! Why would they even if they could!! First of all the dinar is not internationally traded, and second is most is bought and sold using the petro dollar or since they trade and use the US dollar that is what they could use but again WHY would they! No matter what country they trade with if they can pay using Oil that is HUUUUUUGE for Iraq!! It costs them only a few dollars per barrel of oil to extract their sweet crude from Mother Earth and they are probably selling it to China on a $50 contract per barrel of oil...Does any of that make sense as to Why Iraq would never in their right mind ever ever ever pay with dollars or dinars even if their dinar was worth $3 dollars?? They would Always make the deal with barrels of oil anytime they can...Hope that makes this subject much clearer!!!!

  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's why they peg the oil price. China will always put a peg price to what Oraq owes them . In case the oil drops lower then they get more oil.  That's why they never pay in oil. They pay in petrodollars and that dictates how much oil. 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/7/2019 at 4:26 PM, Woldopep said:

I didn’t plan on posting ever again, planned on making money on the Dinar and fading into the sunset. All of this is IMO. The current situation unfolding is to say the least, unsettling. Read an article posted by “ Butifldrm “.  The article was about how under the orders of Khamenei, headed by Soleimani, a regiment was sent from Iran to squash the demonstrations. Basically Iranians sent to kill Iraqis. Iran does not want to lose the Iraqi cash cow.

This is where all of us need to take off the Dinar goggles. I want this whole Dinar thing to pan out at least as much as anyone. The reality of what this article says is an eye opener. 
1) the country of Iraq is in its entirety a Provence of Iran
2) Sadr can say all he wants about how he wants Iran out of Iraq, when in reality he is complicit. ( Iranian just came in to kill Iraqis ). Sadr says he wants the UN to come in for fair elections. There can not be fair elections. He has made an enemy of America, he would not ask for our help. He is backed in a corner. He also has pancreatic cancer. I’m sure he is hoping for his son to take his position if he should pass. 
3) it would literally take a civil war to get Iran out of Iraq. A civil war will not get a reinstatement. Would take years and many lives.
Abadi is the only one who could bring this together in a timely manner.
I was hoping for a 1st of year reinstatement, not looking so good now
 
 

Just wanted to string some things together to make some sense of things. Just read an article that stated that PM Mahdi is the one who called in the Iranians. Bad news for everyone. Protesters will soon be arming themselves. 

I always wondered why Mahdi was so receptive to the Kurds, didn’t press them on monthly oil contributions. Mahdi is willing to give the Kurds whatever they want for their support for his government. Mahdi government is aligned with Iran, Iran does not care how much of Iraq’s money they have to give away as long as they get the control. The problem with the Kurd issue is it still has to be approved in parliament and Sadr, Abadi, and the sunni’s aren’t going to go along with it. Civil war is looking more probable.

Hoping frank26’s lower denominations are coming out on the 14th. Oh Boy. 

 

Edited by Woldopep
  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/7/2019 at 10:26 AM, Woldopep said:

I didn’t plan on posting ever again, planned on making money on the Dinar and fading into the sunset. All of this is IMO. The current situation unfolding is to say the least, unsettling. Read an article posted by “ Butifldrm “.  The article was about how under the orders of Khamenei, headed by Soleimani, a regiment was sent from Iran to squash the demonstrations. Basically Iranians sent to kill Iraqis. Iran does not want to lose the Iraqi cash cow.

This is where all of us need to take off the Dinar goggles. I want this whole Dinar thing to pan out at least as much as anyone. The reality of what this article says is an eye opener. 
1) the country of Iraq is in its entirety a Provence of Iran
2) Sadr can say all he wants about how he wants Iran out of Iraq, when in reality he is complicit. ( Iranian just came in to kill Iraqis ). Sadr says he wants the UN to come in for fair elections. There can not be fair elections. He has made an enemy of America, he would not ask for our help. He is backed in a corner. He also has pancreatic cancer. I’m sure he is hoping for his son to take his position if he should pass. 
3) it would literally take a civil war to get Iran out of Iraq. A civil war will not get a reinstatement. Would take years and many lives.
Abadi is the only one who could bring this together in a timely manner.
I was hoping for a 1st of year reinstatement, not looking so good now
 
 

Thanks for your input woldopep,

Iran is in control of GOI.

 

Iran’s role to dominate Iraqi economy.

%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9

Researcher Shatha Khalil *

Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi

Successive crises facing the Iraqi economy, especially after 2003, and Iraq’s dependence almost entirely on the rentier oil economy, but the most important in this article is to highlight the Iranian role in the acquisition and control by all means and methods on the Iraqi economy, and will be presented in detail.

More than 14.8 million unemployed Iraqi citizens:
According to the Independent Arabia that the Iraqi citizen suffers from many economic crises, although Iraq has huge oil reserves, these crises were the spread of poverty on a large scale, increasing unemployment, high inflation, and corruption rampant in all parts of the state, in addition to the lack of The ability of the Iraqi government to confront Iranian militias, which have turned Iraq into a battleground that should have been on Iranian territory rather than Iraqi territory.
According to the latest census conducted by the Central Statistical Organization in Baghdad in August, the unemployment rate among young people in Iraq was 22.6%. The Iraqi organization “Al-Nama” estimated the percentage of unemployed women by more than 80%.

The International Monetary Fund announced in May 2018 that the youth unemployment rate in Iraq was more than 40% of the population out of 37 million, according to the latest statistics announced by the Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation of Iraq at the end of December First, this means 14.8 million Iraqis are standing for the unemployed queuing .

Iraqis suffer from unemployment… and the Iranian labor is working on its territory!
At the expense of the living conditions of the poor Iraqi citizen, the high unemployment and the deterioration of social and health conditions, we note the high number of Iranian workers in Iraq noticeably after the “deterioration of economic conditions inside Iran, because of the collapse of the Iranian currency against the US dollar, as a result of Washington sanctions, which led them to come to Iraq for working with a monthly salary which is about US $ 200.
The recent influx of Iranian labor is further exacerbating the labor crisis in Iraq greater than before, as well as the country’s high unemployment rate.
This is because Iranians compete with Iraqis for jobs because they accept very low wages, which has led them to be preferred over the sons of the country by the owners of factories, companies and shops.
Naseer al-Saadi, director of a factory for plastic industries in the Waziriya region in central Baghdad said: “Iraq is living in difficult economic conditions no less than that of Iran under the embargo.
The reason is due to rampant corruption in state institutions, and the absence of planning that led to the deterioration of the private sector, which significantly affected the working class in Iraq, and most of the owners of factories, companies and shops suffer from lack of cash liquidity and lack of sales, because of the control of imported goods on the Iraqi market, what It led them to favor foreign labor over Iraqi labor.
Saadi stressed that the reason for this preference is due to the difference in daily wages, which amount to less than half compared to local workers, with the provision of large services beyond what the Iraqi worker can provide, pointing out that he laid off 12 workers from the sons of the country and replaced them with Iranians.
“I am married with five children,” said Hussein al-Aboudi. “I was discharged from the factory where I was working just like hundreds of Iraqis to be replaced by Iranian workers. Who is protecting our rights on our land?”
If the Iranian expatriate to Iraq has been suffering and difficult living conditions in his country, the Iraqis have much more difficult circumstances, and the suffering of the working class in the southern areas of the country is continuous for years because of foreign labor, but the recent entry of large numbers of Iranians has made matters worse .. Where is the censorship and where is the country? Do they prefer the Iranian over the son of the country?!
“Why is the Iraqi citizen subjected to insults and assaults that amount to death when he goes to Iran, while the Iranian citizen in Iraq receives so much attention to have preference over local citizens?” Who is responsible for this preference and who is responsible for the dignity of the Iraqi abroad?
Adnan al-Anbaki, a worker at the al-Rabeea Food Products Company, added: “The expatriate Iranians are competing with Iraqis for their livelihoods because of the low wages they receive.”
Some oners of companies confirmed that they had laid off a number of Iraqi and foreign workers from other countries to be replaced by workers from Iran.
Iran is making efforts to consolidate its influence in all directions and in all ways to penetrate and control Iraq’s economic, political and even social joints and definitely it has achieved some success in this direction.

The negative role played by Iran on the socio-economic side is illustrated in the following points:
– Acquisition of markets and economic investments in Iraq.
– Control of investment and service projects, especially in areas where military operations against ISIS have taken place. The large-scale destruction of these cities has provided millions of dollars to Iranian companies, and armed militias belonging to the Popular Crowd have taken control of the area, whose main task is to entrust reconstruction in these cities to the Iranian companies in future, as Iranian companies will seek through it to acquire the high rate of reconstruction contracts and deals.
– Rehabilitate and involve businessmen loyal to it, in order to enhance Iran’s economic influence in the Iraqi economy.
– Oil: Control of oil export operations, especially in wells spread along the Iraqi-Iranian border, where the oil reserves reach more than 100 billion barrels, especially in light that the Iraqi governments have ignored them after 2003, where Iraq has about 12 oil wells active and shared with Iran , noting that the Iranian export rate of these fields reaches more than 400 thousand barrels per day before the entry of the third package of U.S. sanctions on Iran, under which the Iranian energy supplies were zeroed in May 2019, and most of the common oil fields are under absolute Iranian control. Why this happened by those who are responsible for the country’s wealth management?
– Many economists point out that the total depletion of Iraqi oil fields shared with Iran up to 35 billion dollars a year, note that previous reports have shown that Iran is depleting up to 17 billion dollars.
– Make most of the Iraqi banks linked in one way or another to the Iranian banks scattered in several Iraqi cities, in order to impose economic control over the stock market, and take advantage of surplus hard currency and smuggling to Iran.
– On the level of oil exports, Iran was able after the systematic destruction of oil refineries in the Iraqi city of Salah al-Din, during its liberation operations from ISIS and in cooperation with its armed groups, to increase oil exports to Iraq from 30% to 50% at the beginning of 2018.
– The Iranian dream, Iran seeks to achieve its economic dream on the shoulders of Iraqis, by linking its military movements taking place on the ground with its economic objectives, through its project to reach the Mediterranean Sea, by extending a pipeline to export Iranian gas to Europe through Iraqi territory and through Syrian areas that are falling under its control, and from Tartus to Europe.
– The endeavor for the expulsion of all foreign capital deployed on the Iraqi arena, through threats and extortion by armed militias deployed there.

Iranian circumvention on international sanctions through the Iraqi economic gate :
Iran seeks to use most of the Iraqi government legislation on the laws of import and export, through a certificate of origin, without taking samples of imported goods and examined in the centers of measurement and quality control, and this led to a large accumulation of Iranian goods on the border with Iraq, so Iran flooded the Iraqi market with all of its products, the dominance of Iranian goods was not limited to the areas of Baghdad and southern Iraq, but also to the northern regions, which were witnessing a significant Turkish economic presence in the period before the emergence of ISIS.
At the level of services sector, the rate of Iraq’s import of electric power from Iran to $ 6 billion annually, while the transport and communications sector, shows the dominance of Iran in terms of land and air flights, where the Iranian land transport companies dominate the overall land transport operations between the two countries while air transport shows clear control of Iran air ways with the average daily flights between Iraq and Iran reaches up to 120 daily flights , and Iraq receives only 30% of transport revenue, while the rest goes to the Iranian Treasury.

Religious Tourism in Iraq:
Iranian-owned tourism companies invested heavily in managing the ceremonies of the visit to Karbala and Najaf, to ensure that Iranian visitors spent less than any other visitor, and investment from the Iranian private sector was encouraged in the two holy cities, such as building hotels, thus active actors in the two cities have become Iranian controlling the whole hotel sector in terms of management and labor force in the cities of Karbala and Najaf . Iran has sought to push many of its businessmen to dominate large-scale projects in the cities of Karbala and Najaf to form later a pressure card for any compromise on its influence in Iraq , in 2016, nearly half a million Iranians entered Iraq during the Ashura ceremony in Karbala without visas. This situation was repeated in the years that followed, as well as the introduction of many smuggled goods, in order to undermine the growth process in these two cities.
In addition to transportation to and from Iraq, the Iranian visitor to Iraq is keen not to leak its local Iranian currency in Iraq, especially as Iranian consulates located in the holy places, play a key role in the implementation of these programs.

Water Crisis in Iraq:
Iran changed the course of the Karun River opposite the Iraqi side, which is loaded with a lot of oil and waste from the drainage projects and others, which led to the death of millions of palm trees, and after Iraq was producing three quarters of the total date crop in the world, now comes after Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia in the order of producing countries, due to the severe decline in the production of dates, due to Iranian policies, in addition to the loss of Iraq to much of its fisheries, and Iran’s hand to impose on these sectors as well.
Iran imposes its economic hegemony on Iraq, in order to strengthen its economic influence, and Iran from time to time through its supporters in Iraq, to call for a boycott of Arab and foreign goods in the Iraqi market, although they are scarce, in addition to the liquidation of many wholesalers who do not deal With Iranian companies, or at least do not import Iranian goods, in order to create a trading class that deals only with the Iranian market and companies.

This leads to the conclusion that the Iranian economy swallowed the Iraqi economy, through the entry of Iranian companies and investors to Iraq, and the words “Sakhet Iran”, means “Made in Iran” is the most common and famous among the products in the Iraqi market, a phrase that Iran seeks to make the only brand dominant and controlling the Iraqi market.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/7/2019 at 1:05 PM, nfire said:

Yah not looking good in my opinion. I also think China being paid in oil is a big hindrance as they never have to use dinar to pay for anything to china. Bypassing IQD. Maybe we check back 2020. 

Maybe we check back 2020 or Beyond.

Things are not lucking good.

 

On 10/7/2019 at 1:52 PM, Dinarrock said:

They can’t pay using dinar!!! Why would they even if they could!! First of all the dinar is not internationally traded, and second is most is bought and sold using the petro dollar or since they trade and use the US dollar that is what they could use but again WHY would they! No matter what country they trade with if they can pay using Oil that is HUUUUUUGE for Iraq!! It costs them only a few dollars per barrel of oil to extract their sweet crude from Mother Earth and they are probably selling it to China on a $50 contract per barrel of oil...Does any of that make sense as to Why Iraq would never in their right mind ever ever ever pay with dollars or dinars even if their dinar was worth $3 dollars?? They would Always make the deal with barrels of oil anytime they can...Hope that makes this subject much clearer!!!!

Thanks for your comment Dinarrock,

I agree with you, it cost them $2 per barrel of oil to extract.

 

Go Oil

Go commodity 

Go trade

 

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Operation East of Euphrates: International Attitudes and Turkish Challenges.

%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8

With the approach of zero hour for the Turkish army to cary out  military operation to establish a “safe zone” east of the Euphrates River in northern Syria, the scenarios for the operation, which Ankara has threatened for years, are becoming clearer than ever. Today is closer than ever in implementation.
According to many military data on the ground and the map of the deployment of Turkish troops on the borderline, the first phase of the operation will be between the areas of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, which extends for nearly 100 to 120 kilometers and will be a depth of 30 kilometers, the depth that Ankara had previously defined for the safe area in its first phase, this area will be a total area of 2,600 square kilometers.
In addition to many reports published by the Turkish press, the map of the US withdrawal so far supports this scenario, where US forces withdrew from two main points in Tal Abyad and Ras Al Ain, and the area from Tel Abyad to Ras Al Ain is now free of any US forces presence, noting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s remarks focused for years on mentioning the two regions as one of the most important objectives of the expected operation east of the Euphrates.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced on Twitter that it had completed preparations to start a military operation in northeastern Syria. The ministry explained that it is necessary for it to establish a safe zone or a “peace corridor” as it called it, to contribute to stability and peace in the region, so that the Syrians can live in a safe atmosphere, adding that it will never allow the establishment of what it called the “terrorist corridor” on Turkey’s borders, It confirmed that it had completed all preparations for the military operation targeting the eastern Euphrates region, where the so-called Kurdish Democratic Forces are deployed , led by the Kurds and supported by the United States.
In the meantime, US forces began withdrawing from positions in northeastern Syria, to pave the way for an imminent Turkish military operation, against Kurdish armed forces. The Kurds see this US shift as a “stab in the back” after allowing a Turkish military operation against them. But US President Donald Trump said in a tweet this morning that the United States was engaged “more and more in a pointless war on the horizon.”
At the same time, US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy the Turkish economy if Turkey “crossed” the border, after his sudden decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria. US President Donald Trump then defended his country’s relations with Turkey as a major trading partner, and Trump wrote on Twitter on Tuesday, “Many easily forget that Turkey is a major trade partner of the United States, in fact they (the Turks) make the steel frame of the American fighter F- 35, and the treat with them was well ” He added: “Let us always remember – and importantly – that Turkey is an important member of NATO’s good standing.” The US president noted that his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be his guest on the next November 13. And in a second series of angry tweets, the US president defended his decision that could pave the way for Turkey to launch an attack on Kurdish fighters across the border. Trump’s Republican allies have strongly criticized the decision to withdraw troops.
With the administration getting increasingly confused about Trump’s recent decisions and mounting disagreements between the White House and the Pentagon, it is not yet known whether Washington will open airspace in the region to the Turkish Air Force, or close it in an attempt to disrupt and complicate the Turkish operation.
If the airspace is open, the task will be much easier for Turkish forces, as the air force has finished preparations to carry out very large strikes with the participation of dozens of warplanes awaiting orders to take off from the bases of Malatya and Diyarbakir, which will help destroy all major targets before the ground move which will also need the support of military helicopters.
But if the airspace is closed, the task will be much more difficult, as the warplanes will have to carry out strikes with limited depth from within Turkish airspace, and ground advances will face the dilemma that helicopters cannot provide support from low altitudes, which means prolonging the operation.
The SDF said US statements that US forces did not intervene in a Turkish operation in northern Syria were “stabbing back” against forces led by Kurds . “There were assurances from the United States not to allow any Turkish military operations against the region,” said Kino Jibril, spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in an interview with Al-Hadath television. He added that the SDF had fully committed to an agreement on a “security mechanism” for the border area to which the United States was a guarantor. He continued saying ,”But the (US) statement issued today was surprising and we can say that it stabbed the back of the SDF.”

In exchange for American hesitation and inconsistency , yesterday witnessed a conflict in Kurdish positions between a critic of the Syrian regime and its allies Iran and Russia , and between those who indicate the possibility of dialogue with regime in preparation for the entry of its forces to the east of the Euphrates , a senior Kurdish leader SalehMuslim said ,” all they say that following the withdrawal of US forces from our region and in preparation for repelling the Turkish attack , we must quickly build bridges and alliance with Russia and the Syrian regime , and even accept the offer of Iran , but I tell every one : Iran , Russia and the Syrian regime are complicit with Turkey “.

In another Kurdish position that contradicts a Muslim statement , the SDF has expressed its intention to cooperate with the regime of Bashar al-Assad to face the upcoming Turkish operation east of the Euphrates , as said by Shheen Jallow who was called Mazloum Abdi , leader of the SDF , as quoted by media close to the BDD as saying that “they are thinking of cooperating with the Syrian regime to confront Turkey “.
The post-event wisdom says that the Kurds had to know that Donald Trump could not be relied upon. It is enough to count the agreements that the US president breached during his term, which include withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran, breaching various trade agreements, the “deal of the century” which turned out to be like a balloon, freezing aid to the Palestinians and his great failure to conclude new agreements or resolve disputes. We understand that this is a hysterical and brutal approach aimed at breaking down “old” regimes, because Trump was not a partner.
The abandonment of the Kurds expected in northeastern Syria is another episode in the chain of evils. In Trump’s eyes, the Kurds, whose blood was shed in the war against ISIS and proved themselves as the most effective local forces in the fight against jihadists, are no more than a militia whose role has ended, but now go to hell.
Internationally, the United Nations said civilians should be protected from any Turkish military operation in northeastern Syria, where the UN hopes to prevent abuses or massive displacements. Panos Moumcis, the regional humanitarian coordinator for the Syrian crisis, told reporters in Geneva that the UN had prepared contingency plans for aid. He added “We hope for the best but prepare for the worst.” He said the United Nations had a “bitter history” of safe areas in places like Srebrenica.
Orobia has warned European Union from any Turkish operation against the Kurds in the northern Syria , and the spokeswomen said in a press statement,”In the light of statements by Turkey and the United States regarding developments in the situation, we can emphasize that, while we recognize Turkey’s legitimate concerns, the EU has said from the beginning that a sustainable situation will not be achieved by military means. ”
For his part, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said his country was very concerned about Turkey’s plans for a military operation in northern Syria. And when he was asked about US President Donald Trump’s remarks , he said that Britain was “very happy” with the shift in his policy on Syria, Johnson’s spokesman added US troop movements were a matter for the United States.

The German government also warned Turkey against a military attack in northern Syria, Ulrike Demer, deputy government spokesman today in Berlin said, “Such a military intervention would also lead to another escalation in Syria.” At the same time, the spokeswoman showed an understanding of Turkey’s security interests in the border region. Federal Interior Ministry spokesman Steve Alter said, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer told Turkish officials in Ankara last week that the federal government had “reservations” over Turkish plans to create a “safe area” for refugees in Syria.
French minister Edoured Philippe defended his countries’s policy in northeastern Syria, saying that contrary to American hesitation, the priority for Paris remained to defeat ISIS and maintain the forces fighting the organization and led by Kurds. The French minister criticized, “the obvious hesitation shown by specific partners, especially American friends.

The criticism that the EU countries hear against the US move and against the intentions of the Turkish invasion goes unnoticed through Erdogan’s ear. He has apressure card of a refugee agreement he signed with the EU, which Turkey is committed to preventing the transfer of refugees from its territory to European countries. Erdogan has recently threatened to open gates and give refugees permission to leave Turkey as they please if the EU does not complete the transfer of the billions pledged in the deal, and stunned the union with which it is negotiating to prevent such developments. Against the backdrop of this tension, the EU could knock on his tongue or wav his finger, and speculate that the crucial phone call between Erdogan and Trump offered a refugee agreement and its implications for European countries as a whip waved by Erdogan in order to persuade Trump to allow him to implement his plan in Syria.
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said on Monday that Syrian territorial integrity should be preserved after the United States announced the withdrawal of troops from northeastern Syria. Peskov told reporters that Moscow knows that Turkey shares it the same position on the territorial integrity of Syria. He added “We hope that our Turkish colleagues will abide by this position in all circumstances.”

Later, Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called for a dialogue between the Syrian regime and the Kurds on the situation in northeastern Syria , amid anticipation of a military operation Turkey says it will launch at any moment in the region .and Russian media quoted as Lavarov saying that Russia encourages such dialogue and ready to push it forward . , Lavrov also called for the protection of Syrian territorial integrity as Turkish troops prepare for an imminent operation. Lavrov said US activities in northeastern Syria were contradictory and showed Washington was unable to reach agreements, describing the behavior as a “dangerous game that could spark unrest in the whole region “.

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iranian Foreign Minister Mehmet Javad Zarif told his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on Monday that Tehran “opposed” a military operation in Syria, an official statement said. During a telephone conversation with Oglu, Zarif also urged ” to respect for Syria’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty, and stressed the need to combat terrorism and bring stability and security to Syria,” . According to the statement of Foreign Ministry late Monday , US President Donald Trump seemed as if he had cleared the scene in front of a Turkish attack on Kurdish forces in northern Syria.

Political analysis sees the US withdrawal from northeast Syria to pave the way for an imminent Turkish military operation against Kurdish-led armed forces. That decision may have given the poisoned and mined gift to the Turkish president, and lured him and his army into a very dangerous trap, which may be difficult to get out of it , just like the Saudi trap in Yemen, and the US in Afghanistan and Iraq, while recognizing the existence of some differences, Trump can not forgive the Turkish president to buy Russian S-400 missile systems, and their preference over the US Patriot system.
Trump’s withdrawal of US troops from Syria and taking his country out of this absurd war is not a new poisoned stab in the Kurdish back that it has never learned from previous US stabs, and may also be a prelude to a full military withdrawal from the entire region, whether from Iraq, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, and all US bases in the Gulf region, in keeping with the promises Trump made during his presidential campaign.

In the Syrian revolution, Hussein Sakr said, ” there is something fishy ( Behind the hill is something suspicious ), and the Turkish regime’s intention goes for further bad and dangerous escalation in the north of Syria, where the picture is complete in his mind , but there are not only difficulties to apply it on the ground, but impossible to implement.”

The writer adds that Erdogan ” plans for a long stay in the Syrian territory, and wants behind it to annex those areas of what had been occupied during the Ottoman invasion and French colonization, that is, to return to the era of Mandate, division and annexation , and this will not be done or happened , because what happened in the past will not be repeated today, and work will be underway to liberate what has been occupied, so maneuvering in this regard is a kind of lost gamble no more . ”
Abdul Moneim Ali Issa writes in the Syrian al-Watan , saying that “the most likely scenario is that Turkish forces will enter the areas of control (Syrian Democratic Forces) with Russian consent and American silence and he will have no choice but to proceed with the withdrawal of troops from that region … What is remarkable in this context is The Syria Study Group, a 12-member committee of Republicans and Democrats alike, recommended in a September 25 report to Trump not to withdraw from Syria, but their positions will be weakened when Ankara takes military action that It seems to be certain. ”

“Once again not lastly, Washington is turning its back on its allies and this time they are the Kurds of Syria, who put all their eggs in the American basket,” says Mohammed Kharroub in al-Rai newspaper (Jordanian opinion).
The writer believes that the withdrawal is “a green American light for the NATO ally, which will find no one prevents it from invading northern Syria and the establishment of its alleged safe zone and the depth that it wants … as long as the ones who paid and will pay the price is Syria, its people and territorial integrity and will establish again to revive the scheme of partition of Syria.”
In the same context, Hazem Ayad believes in alSabeel news paper that “the White House presented a less dramatic picture of Trump’s tweets in an attempt to mitigate the impact of America’s abandonment of its Kurdish separatist allies using diplomatic language, in which the White House announced that the United States will not support or participate in Turkey Operations in northern Syria. ”
The writer added , “What happened in northern Syria is going to happen elsewhere , as on Saturday, September 29, we witnessed the temporary relocation of air command from al-Udeid base in Qatar to America as a test maneuver that has proved successful. America will certainly withdraw from other regions, including Afghanistan soon; “It can not be hidden or justified by the Department of Defense, the State Department, or the White House professional diplomats.”
The only country that can prevent the Turkish operation is Russia, but Russia has an interest in allowing Turkey to strengthen its position in northern Syria, where it can implement the agreement signed between Moscow and Ankara in September 2018, which – according to it – disarm and disperse tens of thousands of armed rebels based in the region of Idlib. Turkey has in the past supported a number of these rebels, and Syria’s vast area under its control will enable it to propose to them, at least in theory, to quietly exit from Idlib. Thus a tough battle against them by Syrian and Russian forces would be prevented, a battle that could move a new wave of refugees towards Turkey. The question is whether the rebels will agree to disarm and will not fight against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, who began to occupy areas in Idlib province.

Russia and Assad have an interest in returning Syrian refugees from Turkey and other countries they fled to, in order to prove that Syria has turned into a safe place and to strengthen the Arab foundation in the Kurdish provinces. But Turkish control will also pose a big problem for Assad and Russia, where the Turkish military presence in Syrian territory is an obstacle to the spread of Syrian sovereignty over the entire country. As a result, Turkey and Russia will have to discuss this to set a timetable for Turkey’s future withdrawal, apparently coordinated as the political process progresses to end the war.

Militarily, military experts predict that Turkey’s progress will be easy for several kilometers, but securing and combing the area will take longer, especially as the area is densely populated and inhabited by several million Kurds, Arabs and Syrians, mostly agricultural areas. And SDF in which Kurdish fighters form its backbone have gained advanced quantities and quality of American weapons during the battles against ISIS, which may make it difficult for the Turks mission, and the absence of air cover of the Turkish army from areas in more than ten kilometers from its borders will make it difficult for its mission over time, the Turkish army will seek assistance by unmanned aircraft (drone), not by the air force, since the areas of operations are under the air control of the international coalition forces.
The biggest challenge is the prospect of Kurdish forces releasing hundreds of ISIS fighters held in its prisons in response to US withdrawal and abandonment, after having achieved great success in helping Washington defeat the militant group in northern and eastern Syria. It would put Turkey in a confrontation of another kind, in the event they infiltrate to its territory or regroup their ranks.
The other challenge is internal and relates to the position of the Kurds of Turkey on what is happening, with the possibility of violence and riots in the Kurdish cities in south and southeast Turkey, adding a new burden on the Turkish security establishment, in light of the news that Turkish security is strengthening its forces in cities of Kurdish majority, in anticipation of any emergency. It remains to be noted that the form of confrontation and the nature of the Kurdish response to the Turkish moves, may reflect negatively on the Turkish economy and the exchange rates of the local currency, in light of the economic crisis experienced by the country for years, which would complicate matters if the process is prolonged.

Trenches and underground tunnels are one of the most important obstacles to the Turkish operation, as Kurdish units there have established tunnels fortified with concrete cement along several kilometers below the ground to move freely and carry out operations in the back lines of advanced forces, as happened in Afrin. But from other point the Turkish army and the Syrian opposition factions have gained more experience in dealing with these tunnels and ways of defending the Kurdish units through the Afrin operation .The Turkish army has collected very extensive intelligence information over the past years about the headquarters, trenches and tunnels of Kurdish units in the region. It may help it to deal with it at the lowest possible losses.
Despite the failure of the recent Safe Zone Agreement between Washington and Ankara, the Turkish military has benefited from the steps implemented over the past weeks, either by destroying part of the fortifications of Kurdish units, or by gathering broader intelligence in the framework of ground and air patrols carried out in cooperation with the American side.
Trump’s move, which contradicts the position of the Pentagon and the CIA, will have a far-reaching impact beyond Syria and US relations with Turkey. It reinforces the hypothesis that America has no friends in the Middle East, and that any coalition that is still in force is on the way for a retest and is at risk of unilateral cancellation. The first country to know about the vicissitudes that characterize the US administration is Saudi Arabia, which watched with alarm how Trump hastened to negotiate with Iran. The attack on Saudi oil facilities that Iran seems to have carried out and carried out by forces operating in its own hands is considered a Saudi affair that Riyadh alone can decide how to respond to it.
America’s abandonment of Syria benefits Iran well, at least politically. It reinforces its claim that the United States should not be relied on because it gives up its allies in times of crisis, and that its refusal to conduct direct negotiations with the United States is based on legitimate foundations. Israel, one of Trump’s blind followers, could find itself in distress before the Trump approach. It seems to be counting on Trump to give her a free hand in the territories, including annexation, his advisers have said. But the timeliness of any coalition will be complicated by Trump which requires caution and suspicion.

At this point , it is not clear that Ankara is playing a verbal threat game only , as the military field preparations have been done for weeks . And they are underway now . The Turkish parliament will not hesitate to give the government the authority to start a large-scale operation in northern Syria . It is true that the stated objectives of the operation indicate the need to establish a safe area or “corridor that contributes to stability and pace in the region ” , and ” enable the Syrians to live in the dignified atmosphere” , as the statement of Turkish ministry of Defense , but the biggest objective behind the operation is the one explained by Erdogan repeatedly about the expulsion of Kurdish militants out of varying depth areas inside northern Syria .

Hence . it may be logical to favor a deal of understanding between Washington and Ankara agreed during the phone conversation that brought Erdogan and Trump together , and that the first loser will be the Kurdish forces that allied with the Pentagon east of Euphrates, and bet on the mistake that Washington will prevent this operation and impose explicit protection for Kurdish militants in the face of the Turkish army . As usual , the Kurds listened to statements by US Defense Secretary Mark Esper during his visit to Ankara just a few weeks ago, and they believed what he said about Washington ‘s insistence on preventing any Turkish military incursion into Syrian territory and Kurdish militant areas .

On the other hand , there are no clear or sufficient indications about the effectiveness of the objection and anxiety statements issued by Iran , Russia or even Britain . It is difficult to say that Ankara has not matured the option of interference on a quiet fire if it required stages of consultation with White House and thus the coverage of the operation is not limited to diplomatic insurance alone but may also include different levels of logistical coordination. Surprisingly , Moscow has expressed double surprise at Trump’s announcement of withdrawing dozens of US troops from northern Syria and Ankara’s announcement of preparations for the military operation , in exchange for Russia officials claiming that the Kremlin did not know the two developments together .

The simple and decisive question is this: has the deal finally matured between Washington and Ankara and the various actors at the expense of the Kurdish armed factions, as it was repeatedly made in the past.

Turkish Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

 

 

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm looking at 2050. This way if it happens sooner I'll be shocked. Shocked I tell you!

Edited by NextYear
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/11/2019 at 9:50 AM, NextYear said:

I'm looking at 2050. This way if it happens sooner I'll be shocked. Shocked I tell you!

NextYear, Thanks for your input.

It’s better to set your expectations for a longer wait and be shocked than set your expectations for a shorter wait and be disappointed.

  • Thanks 2
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.