Why I believe our wait will be longer.

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Deir Ez-zor” in the Iranian strategy.

 

After years of closure, on September 30, Syria and Iraq reopened their main border crossing between Albukamal and Qaim. Reopening the crossing in Deir ez-Zor province in eastern Syria is of strategic importance to Iran. The importance of Albu Kamal is that it is the crossing of Tehran- Mediterranean route. The Quds Force commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Qasem Soleimani, appealed for control of Albukamal before the arrival of the international coalition forces to it after the expulsion of ISIS in 2017, what are the plans of the Iranian decision-maker in that province? The reopening of the Abu kamal crossing reopens questions about the strategic and economic importance of the crossing and its implications for the conflict of actors in the region specifically between the USA and Iran.
The FSA had taken control of the Albukamal border crossing in mid-2012, the year it witnessed control of most border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, following the withdrawal of regime forces, and before the Syrian revolution that began in March 2011, there were three main crossings between Iraq Syria, the Albukamal-Qaim, and the Yarubiyah crossing that Rabia meets on the Iraqi side, which the FSA exchanged control with regime forces in 2012, before ISIS attempted to control it in 2013 and 2014, but failed to do so. It was controlled by Kurdish factions in October 2014 and is still under control of them so far, the third crossing is al-Tanf, which al-Walid meets on the Iraqi side, which ISIS took control of in mid-2015 after the regime forces withdrew from it, but the FSA took control in March 2016, and then turned into a military base for the international coalition led by the United States, the crossing was a major between Iraq and Syria and was witnessing an active trade movement before 2011.

Iranian militias have occupied the town of Albukamal and its countryside since late 2017 following the elimination of ISIS, which has dominated the region for years, with the removal of the earthen berm between the two countries at the height of its rush in 2014 and 2015, in return , the Iraqi Popular Mobilization factions linked to the Revolutionary Guard control on the al-Qaim crossing since the end of 2017, following the elimination of ISIS in the border area between Syria and Iraq.The control of Iranian militias in Syria are not confined to the town of Albukamal and its countryside only as Hizbullah, and militias of Haidarion, Fatimion and Zeinabiyun “ have control over the town of Al Mayadeen, west Al Bu- Kamal, both cities on the southern bank of the Euphrates River that cuts Deir ez-Zor province into two halves, noting that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have control over its northern part in exchange for the control of Iranian militias and regime forces that control the city of Deir Ezzor , the center of the province, in the southern part .

At the same time, Iran is building two new military bases in the region: one in the western outskirts of the city of al-Mayadeen, and the other , larger , in Albukamal, called “Imam Ali,” and they are built in cooperation with “Jihad al-Bina” and “Imam Hussein Organization,” Two Iranian-sponsored institutions with branches in the cities of Deir Ezzor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal, these institutions will reinforce Tehran’s goal of controlling a major strategic road: from Albukamal in the north to the T-2 oil pumping station, and then west to Altiyas, which includes the pumping station / Syrian Air Base “T-4”, and finally to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s main stronghold, and various foreign forces carried out air strikes on parts of the road, but the IRGC and its proxies reduced its vulnerability to such operations by hiding inside civilian homes, Iran provided funding for the rehabilitation of the Albukamal crossing and expelled elements loyal to the regime on July 27. And today , the regime no longer exists , and the control of the crossing is completely Iranian.

Although Shiite militias in Deir ez-Zor have Afghan and Pakistani factions, the PMF is Iran’s main financial channel in the province, particularly in Albukamal, and salaries and distribution methods vary according to the nationality of the recruiter, for example Iraqis in Syria receive about $ 400 a month via MasterCard cards given to them by the PMF, while fighters from other nationalities receive cash and personal cash, often withdrawn from PMU-managed banks in Iraq , a possible violation of the US punishment policy .

As for local Syrian conscripts , their salaries are paid directly by the Revolutionary Guards in amounts that depend on their individual tasks , those who serve in their towns and villages receive $ 100 a month, while those who head to the front lines receive $ 150, in addition to military vehicles and fuel vouchers and funds allocated to various expenses and according to local anti-regime figures, these well-organized IRGC financial practices far outweigh the Assad regime’s “chaotic and bankrupt” security structure, as happened when the ISIS terrorist group took over Region, financial incentives of «Revolutionary Guards» attract unemployed and poor Syrian men , as well as foreign fighters.

In addition, Shia conscripts and their families are guaranteed housing in properties bought and run by Iranian businessmen. Since November 2018, more than 100 foreign Shia families have settled in the southern neighborhoods of Mayadeen, and a similar number of Iraqi Shia families in Albukamal , and therse numbers have increased definitely since then.

It is clear that the Israeli and American strategy in the east of Syria revolves around not allowing the Iranians to establish their military, economic and social footholds in the region, to create facts on the ground that are difficult to overcome in any future settlement of the Syrian issue. Observers of the Syrian affairs believe that technically the crossing does not add anything ne to the transfer of troops (Iranian and Iraqi militias ) and military equipment, pointing out that these militias are using other military crossings along the border to move between the two countries and smuggling operations. They believe that the opening has political messages,” adding : The announcement of the opening of the crossing with Iranian support carries a message to the United States and Israel, which targeted the region with several air strikes at various times, that Iran is continuing its project in Syria, as well as a political message in support of the Assad regime in its attempts to continue again in the Arab area.

The IRGC and PMF penetrate the social fabric of the majority of the Sunni Arab population in Deir ez-Zor province through a variety of socio-economic activities, helping these forces to impose the Twelver Shi’ism on local populations who suffer from Financial hardship.
For example, with the blessing of the Assad regime, the Iranian Cultural Center in Deir ez-Zor mainly forces school and university students to take part in events organized by the center, and the Revolutionary Youth Union affiliated to Baath Party ordered the local education directorate to organize field trips to attend Shiite religious ceremonies, Iranian Revolutionary Guards lectures, short story writing events and sports competitions, and in return , students earn extra credits and financial aid.

Similarly, scholarships for study abroad are widely advertised, aimed at students interested in pursuing religious studies and returning to Syria as missionaries of the Twelver Doctrine. Scholarships are allocated to age groups from primary school children to students in their 30s . About 100 students from Deir ez-Zor have already traveled to Iran to join this program (juniors with their parents). In addition, Iranian professors run three schools in Mayadeen, Albukamal and Deir ez-Zor, where they teach Persian language and history alongside to other lessons, and according to some reports about two hundred students attend these schools.

Some local tribes in Deir ez-Zor play a key role in implementing this Iranian agenda. In areas such as Sbeikhan and al-Mayadeen, the IRGC has ordered tribal Sheikhs to invite residents to attend events organized in Shia Husseiniya, where awards and aid are distributed to orphans, women and families of martyrs. Local Sources indicate also that Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir of the Baqarah tribe runs an Iranian-backed militia in Muhaimida . Similarly, Saleh Mohammed Ismail al-Ba’aj, an official of the Ba’ajin tribe in al-Mayadeen, is Tehran’s main ally in spreading the doctrine of the Twelver in cooperation with Iranian Cultural center “in Damascus, in addition to his role as a religious consultant for « Brigade Abou El Fadl Abbas », a unit of militia loyal to Assad composed of Iraqi and Lebanese fighters.

The “stick” in this “stick and carrot” approach has also become evident. Last year, for example, the Syrian authorities arrested 20 Sunni imams from Sabikhan, al-Mayadeen, Albukamal and other cities for refusing to call for Shia prayer, and in return, the imams who responded to the call , have received an increase in wages.
Deir ez-Zor’s center was strengthened in achieving Iran’s religious and strategic goals last July, when the Quds Force commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Qasem Soleimani, visited the town of Albukamal personally, where he met with militia leaders to establish a new unit, under the name ” the Brigade of shrines guards, which will be charged with defending the newly built Shiite shrines in Deir ez-Zor, and by building new Shiite shrines in or near ancient holy sites previously established by Sunni dynasties, the IRGC seeks to form local religious legitimacy. This task will be well aligned with many humanitarian organizations created by Iran in the province, which seek to make the local population knowing to Shiite faiths while distributing aid to them.

In short, the opening of the crossing is the culmination of an Iranian effort to take full control of eastern Syria, and a major step towards consolidating its influence in eastern Syria, through the opening of the Syrian Albukamal crossing – the Iraqi Qaim crossing, in an area entirely subject to Iranian Revolutionary Guards militias, it is likely to be an Iranian military gateway to Syria more than a commercial crossing, as Iran has long sought to establish a long land corridor, starting from its territory and ending in Lebanon, passing through Iraq and Syria. The crossing seems to be the main building block of this project, which the Israeli and American sides are trying to undermine, by launching Aerial attacks on positions of Iranian militias in the Reev of eastern Deir Ez-zor.

Iranian Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

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Strategic Syria between the US withdrawal and the Turkish attack.

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
Petroleum and natural gas are the most important natural resources of Syria, followed by phosphate, rock salt, plaster and asphalt and there are some important resources that are used as raw materials in industry such as pottery and sand , as well as in construction work , such as limestone , basalt , manganese , lead, cooper, uranium and mineral materials such as sulfur , talc and rock silk (asbestos). It is very rich
in natural, human and cultural wealth.
Most of Syria’s main oil assets are in the north-east under the control of Kurds , and further exploration could lead to the discovery of offshore gas reserves, given the presence of giant deposits in the Mediterranean waters in the far south near Egypt, Israel and Cyprus.
This explains ( the conflict over Syria) because of its multiple riches and being the key to the region and for the Russians and Iranians as an extension to the Mediterranean, the conflict over Syria is explained by its multiple riches and being a key to the region, not only in the geopolitical field, but also in economic terms through Russian interest in the gas discoveries on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean that arrived at Gazprom Com. to sign contracts of partnership to invest Israeli gas fields , and it seems there are signs of Moscow’s concerns about Syrian and Lebanese fields on the coast extended from Iskenderun to Gaza.
Russia is an ally of Syria, because of Russia’s economic interest in Syria , its control over the Syrian port of Tartus on Mediterranean , where Russia maintains a strategic naval base that can be used to direct military force to the threshold of Europe.
Moscow has a big obsession that cutting Europe off Russian gas, which now supplies one-third of its needs, and replacing it with Gulf gas that arrives more quickly and cheaply across the Syrian coast, or through pipelines from the Gulf via Jordan, Syria and Turkey to European territory, would put Russia in a vulnerable position before the West making it unable to control the nerve of the European economy, which is already preparing and is planning trends towards cutting or reducing Russian gas imports.
By helping Russia to the Syrian regime to restore almost all the positions held by Syrian rebels, Russia has emerged as a major force in Syria, and some of Trump’s political allies oppose a US withdrawal in Syria for fear it would be in the interests of Russia and Iran.
As for the risk of (US withdrawal from Syria) , Trump justified the withdrawal and defended his decision to withdraw US troops from the Syrian border with Turkey
“I don’t think our soldiers should be there in the next 50 years to protect the border between Turkey and Syria when we can’t protect our borders at home,” he said, referring to the US border with Mexico.
The US withdrawal from Syria is now a reckless step. Despite Trump’s hesitation, the United States has a major role to play in preventing ISIS from re-emerging, confronting Iranian expansionism, and making sure the country does not sink into a state of endless war.
As the Iraqi experience shows, the withdrawals leave a vacuum that expansionist colonists can fill in several ways to take advantage to fill the security vacuum, create terrorist movements and take on the role of savior, as they did in Iraq, where Iran took advantage of the vacuum left by the withdrawal of US soldiers in 2011.
That move had a major impact on Iranian control in Syria, because Iraq was an important transit point that supplied the Assad regime with a large quantity of weapons and tens of thousands of sectarian militia elements who now became the most dominant force on the ground and then created the terrorist ISIS group in 2014.
The partial US withdrawal is an opportunity for Russia in two ways: First, it will push the Kurds to head toward the Syrian regime, with the confusion of local cards.
Second, the precedent for a US withdrawal could be replicated elsewhere, and Moscow believes that putting pressure on the United States will do what it wants as Turkey has done.

In fact, a few hours after the withdrawal of US troops, Russian forces asked the American forces in the city of Manbij to evacuate their positions from the city, in preparation for the entry of Syrian regime forces.
The Syrian Civil War Map project, through its map, pointed to the presence of military movements by Russian and Syrian regime forces towards Manbij.
It is not ruled out that the Russians take advantage of the exposure of the back of Kurdish forces to launch an attack targeting the southern Kurdish areas from the city of Tabqa southwest of the province of Raqqa and other areas in Deir Ez-zor.
Trump’s statements that the United States has borne many costs, coinciding with his demand for regional and international countries to shoulder their responsibilities, these remarks indicate that the US withdrawal will not be limited in the near future to just two points, but may go beyond to a full withdrawal from the Syrian geography.
The Syrian civil war is no longer a matter of the Syrian people, it is now the battleground for the future of the regional order in the Middle East and the balance of power that accompanies it.

The objectives of the Turkish attack in Syria :
Erdogan said in the UN General Assembly on September 24 that he “intends to eliminate the terrorist structure of the PKK and YPG and establish a corridor for peace.”
Erdogan is seeking to build 10 districts and 140 villages in this region to house at least one million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey.
But Senator Lindsey Graham, an ally of President Trump, called the US move “a disaster” while the UN humanitarian coordinator said it was “preparing for the worst.”
Republicans and Trump’s allies criticized him , when he was threatening Turkey in a tweet that he would destroy the Turkish economy altogether if the latter made an “unacceptable” move.

The former presidential candidate Hillarious Clinton wrote in a tweet: “The president has sided with the authoritarian authorities in Turkey and Russia at the expense of our loyal allies and the American interest, and this decision is a despicable betrayal of the Kurds and the oath that he did.”

“If we are to be supported by our allies, we should support them equally,” said former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Healy. The SDF played an active role in our successful war against ISIS in Syria, leaving them to face death a big mistake. ”

The economic motivation for the Turkish intervention in Syria is that the Turks want to make their lands the crossroads of the Gulf oil and gas pipelines, in addition to the gas pipelines and oil of the Caucasus and the former Soviet Central Asia, to be a conduit for Turkey to the European continent, and this is probably the reason for their heavy involvement in the Syrian conflict in addition to their dream of making Damascus and Sham Sharif a key to the region resembles the Marj Dabiq in 1516 to make Istanbul once again the leader of the Sunni Muslim world.
Iran’s expansionist ambitions in Syria and Iraq are building an Iranian gas pipeline that extends to the Syrian coast through Iraqi territory.
This heavy involvement of the Russians and Iranians in the Syrian conflict also has preventive defenses on the economic front : with Iran’s continued threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, with Yemen, Somalia, and piracy unrest, and with the Suez Canal’s inability of giant oil and gas tankers to cross via it , there are signs that there are The five Gulf states (except Oman, of course) are thinking of making the Syrian coast a pipeline as a crossroad for Gulf oil and gas pipelines, and a port for Gulf goods to import and export .It seems that the economic cost is lower than sea routes if trains and trucks are used, and it is also faster.
The Russians and Iranians want to prevent this by fixing their word in Syria through the ongoing conflict in and on Syrian soil.

Implications of the attack on the Turkish economy:
There must be repercussions for the Turkish attack on its economy, especially after Trump threatened to wipe out the Turkish economy;
US congressional leaders have threatened sanctions that hurt the lira and reinforce Turkey’s mistrust of Western allies.
Turkey’s currency, which suffered a crisis a year ago partly because of US sanctions and tariffs, reached its lowest level in nearly four months after US troops withdrew from northeastern Syria and Ankara ordered attacks against Kurdish forces there.

The lira has stabilized in recent months and inflation has fallen, a sign that Turkey’s economy of $ 766 billion, the largest in the Middle East, has moved away from its worst decline in nearly 20 years.
Risks include rising deficits, borrowing costs, and a slowdown in tourism if the Turkish military engages in the process for a long time, but the biggest threat, which investors say Turkish assets do not take into account, is a new insistence on top US Republicans to punish Turkey for attacking Syrian Kurds. They are Washington’s key allies in its fight against ISIS.

A few days ago, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch defender of President Donald Trump, joined another Democratic senator in unveiling a framework for sanctions, while sticking to criticism of the president’s decision to withdraw US troops.
Graham’s proposal will target assets owned by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other senior officials, and impose restrictions on the issuance of visas, and penalties for anyone carrying out military dealings with Turkey or supporting energy production.
Turkey could also face broader sanctions under the Graham plan in light of its purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system this year despite strong objections from Washington.

Ulrich Loichtmann, head of currency research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said further sanctions would “completely change Turkey’s economic image and we will have to take into account the possibility of a new recession with the position of fragile economy after the 2018 crisis.”
It was unclear whether Congress would support Graham’s sanctions or whether he would get a two-thirds majority vote needed to overcome any opposition from Trump, whom Erdogan has a good working relationship and talked to before withdrawing US troops.
It was also unclear whether Trump would back sanctions after he said earlier this week the United States would “wipe out” Turkey’s economy if it did anything “beyond the border” in Syria without specifying what it meant.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

 

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Conspiracy… Address of some partners of the political process in Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi was and still constituting a favorable  opportunity to restore its internal and external conditions of a political system based on sectarian and national quotas, which is one of the fundamental dilemmas. This quota, in turn, established the so-called partners of the political process in Iraq in which Adil Abdul Mahdi to discover over time that some of them prefer special partisan , sectarian and national interests at the expense of the Iraqi state, instead of being a national way to help him in the success of his national reform project, they were a tool to conspire against him, and his project aimed at getting Iraq rid of its multi-dimensional crises.

We do not reveal a secret when we say that among the partners of the political process in Iraq, those who have the ambition to become prime minister of Iraq, and the list of candidates is full of names, and the embassies of regional and international countries operating in Iraq send reassuring messages to those who are loyal to them in the political process in Iraq, that he is Candidate for the position of Prime Minister!! However, the aspirants of that position may have lost the sight that the direct result of the falling or overthrow of Adil Abdul Mahdi’s government is the collapse of the entire Iraqi political system.

Constitutionally, the post of prime minister is a constitutional entitlement. A political person who receives “half +1” of members of the Iraqi Council of Representatives can form the Iraqi government, but politically, according to the political custom that Iraq used to follow in the phase after 2003, there are several political and religious considerations can taken in to account in the selection of the Prime Minister of Iraq, including: the approval of the highest religious authority in Najaf (Marjaa) on that choice, and Ali Khamenei, the Supreme leader of the Iranian revolution ( Murshid ), and the United States of America.

After the US withdrawal from Syria, the Trump administration will focus on Iraq, which means that if an Iraqi political figure is chosen as prime minister without the approval of the US administration, this will have economic and military-security consequences that Iraq cannot afford, economically : the administration of US President Donald Trump may impose , through the US Treasury Department, harsh multilateral measures , for example, all Iraqi money will be subject to prosecution noting that it is now protected by presidential decree based on the Iraq-US security agreement , so in the case of cancellation , the file of compensations will be reopened , as well as accusations of Iraq of supporting terrorism, and losses of US companies before 2003, and the Iraqi money will be withheld until resolving of judicial files .

Not to mention the suspension of sending the dollar currency to Iraq, which will stop many of the obligations, and stop the work of the financial system “DFI” and stop the flow of $ 16 billion, which leads to a financial deficit in Iraq that prevents it from paying the salaries of its employees, especially employees of embassies abroad and at home, this means “bankruptcy of the state” and international obligations of Iraq and its obligations towards companies especially oil companies and the country will be in a state of complete paralysis similar to the days of the siege of the 1990s, with little difference, so taking such a step is playing with fire, undue risk, and in the context of the emphasis on Iraq concerning its positions on the PKK of Turkey and Qasad , Washington may instruct Turkey to stop its water supply, and will ask its allies from the Arab countries to tighten economic and political stranglehold on Iraq.

Militarily, the United States and its allies from the International Coalition and NATO may withdraw their forces from Iraq irreversibly .These forces, especially the air force, have played a prominent role in the elimination of the terrorist organization ISIS, which may return to its terrorist activity and return to threaten the security and stability of Iraq.

The political class of all spectrums in Iraq must be deeply aware that the selection mechanism of the Iraqi Prime Minister is very sensitive for the United States of America, that the selection of him has become within the context of the great game at the regional level, and not at a very, very simple level, as in meetings at Babylon Hotel”in Baghdad, or meetings of the Sheikhs and gentlemen, it is a bigger game than you think and I think!
The political class in Iraq should stand with the prime minister of Iraq, Adil Abdul Mahdi, and not depend on the narrow interests represented by some spectrum of parties and militias, it was not acceptable to some or most of that class to leave the reformist warrior, Adil Abdul Mahdi, to face protests alone, as if their tongue says “face your fate yourself”, not to mention the negative attitudes that have been issued by some of them.

Iraq and its people, who have the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, and the majority of its people are young, so it is not fair to suffer from the fires of unemployment, and a large part of it lives below the poverty line.

At this moment, Iraq is looking for itself and its future and the failure of reform and promises will pave the way for the collapse of the Iraqi political system.
Iraq is at a crossroads between a political system that has lost the state project and a society and a younger generation that can no longer wait. It seeks to reformulate the Iraqi state project on new foundations, taking into account the achievement of a prosperous and democratic Iraq.

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

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Iraq needs a new enlightenment age to achieve economic reform.

Shatha Khalil
What motivated me to write this article is despite the tremendous wealth enjoyed by the Arab nation, especially my country, Iraq , of natural, human, scientific and intellectual wealth, but the situation remains tragic, poverty, ignorance, disease, destitution, refugee camps, unemployment… etc and other calamities.

Why those riches and minds haven’t used for the service of the Arab countries first and benefited from them worldwide? There is something wrong…

The Iraqi professor Mohammed Taqa characterized this imbalance accurately and objectively in his last lecture, the imbalance in the “pattern of thinking” the Iraqi man should free from his tendency to partisanship and habits of tradition and dependency of the clan or the head of the party or cleric, there is no autonomy in thinking , how can the country be led by minds prisoner of old ideas and concepts ,the imbalances that exist today , new theories and ways of thinking must be developed , and new treatments for the problems that the country suffers at all levels to build a strong scientific country, there must be intellectual liberation first.
Iraq needs an age of enlightenment that fits our society like old Europe:
Age of Enlightenment refers to the eighteenth century in European philosophy, the emergence of a historical cultural movement called Enlightenment, which defended rationality and its principles as a means of establishing the legal system of morality and knowledge “away from religion”.

The pioneers of this movement considered their mission to lead the world to development and modernization and leave the old religious and cultural traditions and irrational ideas within a period of time they called “the dark ages.”

This movement formed the basis and framework for the French Revolution and then for the American Revolution and liberation movements in Latin America.
The most important philosophers and thinkers of the Enlightenment: Voltaire, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and David Hume, all attacked the institutions of the existing church and state.

The eighteenth century also saw the rise of experimental philosophical ideas, applied to political economy, science and governments as they were applied in physics, chemistry and biology.

Enlightenment is the human departure from the stage of mental insufficiency and intellectual dependence and attain the age of maturity or adulthood and rely on positive self-scientific thinking.
Mental impairment also defined as “dependence on others and the inability to think personally or behave in life or to make any decision without consulting the guardian of us.” From this perspective his enlightening cry came to say: “Use your minds, mankind! Have the courage to use your minds! Do not be reluctant anymore and do not give up to laziness and fate , moved , energized and engaged in life in a positive and insightful, as warned of blind obedience to leaders or clerics, as happened in the state of Prussia later.

Reason, nature, and spontaneity are consistent in the Enlightenment vision with the belief that nature has endowed every human instinctive ability to understand, making it equal to all others, provided that it is liberated from the corruption of superstition and ignorance, the exclusion of the other, the atonement of the other and the intolerance of those ideas…. Where to go? Only to destruction and collapse and to a dark future.

A man free from blind subordination uses his mind correctly and spontaneously (according to the Enlightenment) and manifests the natural behavior of the so-called “noble savage” in moving forward in building a state where laws, non-tyrannical, are based on natural rights.

Enlightenment is the exit of man from the state of immaturity that he imposed on himself. Immaturity is not possible to use the comprehension abilities of a particular person without the need of guidance from other people… You must know! But you have the courage to use your own understanding.

Enlightenment’s contribution to science:
The British writer and historian Robert Wilde said: “The Renaissance or the Enlightenment and the scientific revolution witnessed a tremendous expansion of our knowledge of the world, as well as in enhancing the accuracy of that knowledge.” Part of that was because of the evolution of what we might call today the scientific methodology,”he said. On the scientific method, the question of Newton’s foundations of the foundations of the methodology known today remains certain, according to the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

Thanks to the decline in illiteracy and the low cost of books, the ways in which the publishing of results of scientific experiments have been evolved, as well as the desire of scholars and scientists to discuss and adopt them, Wilde told Life Science: “I want to mention the models of scientists like Saint Gregory and others who came before him. Humans have not tried to understand the world. The successful development of modern science is happening now. ”

Iraq after 2003:
In post-2003 Iraq, everyone dreamed that the homeland would be in their favor, after it was in favor of one individual, but their dream evaporated with the first session of Iraqi officials, during which they recognized the size of their privileges, which took inflation in quantity and quality to become the wealth of the homeland in the pockets and balances of some officials after it became as a snowball that it gets bigger as time goes by.
After the change of the promises made by those who promised them the best, but they saw only more disappointments, there was no change in the features of the country, except they were able to replace images and slogans of the one party, by new images and slogans imported from the Diaspora (overseas countries ) , in addition to remove the name of “Saddam Hussein,” which characterized many government institutions in the country to be replaced by names of political and religious figures who took a wide area of influence and responsibility.

What did they give our country to give them so much of privileges? The answer is, of course, that they have done little. They have led the country to ruin more than before.

The Iraqi economy needs reform:
Iraq entered a new phase after the change of the political system, in June 2003 specifically, as the CPA began to put its project to reform the Iraqi economy in the planned framework, as it issued legislation and laws and took measures affecting many areas, including foreign investment, infrastructure, banking system, Taxes, property, monetary stability…..etc.

But the truth is that Iraqis have harvested only a devastating economy and in the extreme cases of deterioration and suffers from a clear depression in production and the local market exposed to commodity dumping impossible to face locally, as the economy suffers from distortions in the price structure and structural imbalances in the trade balance and the workforce and the deficit in the public budget and debt shackle Its movement towards progress and achieving an economically acceptable rate of economic growth and poor security conditions limit the attractiveness of foreign investments.

There is a need for immediate and serious reform based on the new scientific thinking, but what is important now is not only reform, but the quality and content of this reform, because reform can take place in an informal manner, which threatens the potential for growth and development and entails a high social cost, this is what happens if reform, for example, is achieved through a harsh deflationary policy.

Systematic reform is based on two basic criteria:
1. To help reduce the level of external deficit to the extent that it can be sustained.
2. The external equilibrium must be consistent with achieving acceptable rates of economic growth and price stability.

The crisis of the Iraqi economy emphasizes the importance of initiating economic reforms based on a development strategy aimed at changing the structure of the Iraqi unilateral economy through diversifying the productive structure, achieving a more equitable distribution of income and wealth, caring for low-income social groups and focusing on investing youth wealth.

First: The Concept of Economic Reform
Economic reform means a set of measures taken by the state or economic authorities to reduce or eliminate distortions in the structure or economic performance or to achieve a steady increase in economic growth rates, or it is reform that achieves the best mobilization of resources and economic surplus to direct them to the areas of economic activity most effective and most to achieve the requirements of national and social security, the necessary reform is what creates the mechanisms of motivation and integration and mobilizes the material and moral capabilities of human beings in the process of creation and creativity, reform is the reform of what has been corrupted or become corrupt .
It will be on two levels:
First, macroeconomic: reform here in response to challenges and available opportunities or to adapt to external shocks or in response to the results were not taken into account of the targeted economic measures or to address the imbalance in the balance of payments and the subsequent imbalances such as the imbalance between saving, investment and budget deficit, that is within a comprehensive economic outlook.
Second, the level of microeconomics: It aims to correct the performance of economic units through the implementation of a series of measures aimed at rationalizing performance and achieve the best use of available resources and increase the size of competition and leave the mechanism of setting prices for the forces of supply and demand.

Economic reform aims to provide the basic needs of goods and services to all the people in general and to the poor in particular, and to create jobs that accommodate the continuous increase in the labor force resulting from the increase of the population, and improve the balance of payments, and achieve the balance of revenues with expenditures in the budget of state , and control the inflation and elimination it gradually , this requires more reliance on the market mechanism, encouraging the private sector to finance and manage investments, and liberalizing and managing economic, financial, monetary and administrative policies to make better use of available investments to compensate for depreciation of production capacities, and the addition of new production capacities of the national economy.

Second: The reality of the Iraqi economy and the reasons for reform:
The Iraqi economy was subjected to many shocks and crises, and it was not really strong enough to face these shocks and crises, despite its enormous economic potential, which was not invested in a balanced way to achieve the civilization renaissance and desired economic development.
What distinguishes this economy, it is rentier depends mainly on the extractive sector (oil), and all the development plans that were previously adopted in financing them on public revenues derived from this sector, crude oil exports accounted for at least (94%) of the value of Iraq’s exports during the period 1970-1990, the percentage of capital and intermediate goods from the total imports of Iraq during the mentioned period (74%), and the imported part of the commodity inputs used in the manufacturing sector constituted 53%.

The comprehensive trend of economic policies has lost the bases of efficiency and competitiveness of commodity production within the framework of Iraq’s reciprocal relations, so that the advantages of the market were away from achieving economic benefits for the members of the society. The state was completely dominated over these policies, weakening the role of the private sector, which is illustrated by the decline in the output of manufacturing industry in this sector as a contribution to the gross domestic product from (2.5%) in 1988, to (0.07%) in 1994, although the state, at least in part, goes toward the privatization of some of its state-owned companies in 1987.

It is possible to say that the beginning of the real shocks was the Iran-Iraq war, which completely depleted the material resources of society (not to mention mankind), from a surplus of about 35 billion dollars during the beginning of the war to a heavy debt estimated by the International Monetary Fund at 125 billion dollars in 2004, through the accumulation of the results of wars (the Gulf wars, the first and second, and beyond).

While this war imposed increased spending on military needs, which contributed to 42.5% of the GDP in 1985, the economy was exposed to more than an economic shock, perhaps led by the fluctuation of oil prices and then its foreign exchange revenues due to Volatility in oil revenues, therefore, the state’s tendency towards privatization, as mentioned above, was partly to try to compensate part of the public revenues lost by the fluctuation of oil prices and the need for the necessary funding spending due to war that has exhausted it.

The second Gulf War was also a major factor in the destruction of the economy, especially after the issuance of a large number of international resolutions, the most important of which was resolution (661) of 6 August 1990, which included the imposition of economic sanctions, including the economic blockade that led to the isolation of Iraq and its economy from the outside world, which led to the rise Inflationary pressures with the passage of time and affect the value of exchange rates, and the rise of the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar from (7.5) dinars per dollar in 1991, to more than (2500) dinars per dollar at the end of 1995.
The 1990s were the main driver of the deterioration of the economy, coupled with economic mismanagement, the state’s drive towards new monetary issuance, the erosion of the value of savings and real wages and the growing number of unemployed.

The last war led by US against Iraq in the first quarter of 2003 has destroyed most of the basic structures. The destruction included all official and unofficial institutions and companies, and what was not destroyed by the war , it has damaged by looting and burning, noting that 158 companies were destroyed out of (192) State company, the rest stopped production and work for various reasons, including security conditions (uncontrolled), power outages and other successive crises.

Ways of economic reform:
The first: Economic reform which is undertaken by the state based on its own resources or relying on a funding source other than the IMF and the World Bank. The reform may be carried out without the need for external financing through the use of financial and monetary policies and some direct control measures to achieve the required objectives. This kind of reform is applied in capitalist and oil-exporting countries.
Second: Economic reform, which is carried out in cooperation with the IMF and the World Bank, in which the economic reform program begins with the so-called letter of intent, which is a detailed letter issued by the Government of the Member State requesting funding from the Fund, and this letter explains the problem of the economic state and then the objectives.

The main reasons for reform can be summarized as follows:
1. Decline in economic growth rates: Economic growth rates have dropped significantly due to low levels of economic activity, and the fact that the Iraqi economy depends mainly on the export of oil, the exclusion of oil will lead to the growth rate becomes significantly negative.
2. Trade imbalance: Oil exports decreased during the period of the economic siege by (97%) and non-oil by (31%) in 1991 compared to 1990. Imports witnessed a significant decrease during the period (1991-1996) and then returned to rise in 2001. The trade balance was in surplus during the period (1988-1990), where it grew by (47.7%) and then turned into a deficit and reached this deficit during the period (1991-1995) to (-11.1%).
3. Imbalance of the General Budget: The Iraqi economy suffers from deficiencies in revenues and an increase in public expenditures.
4. High foreign indebtedness: Due to the increasing military spending, which constituted a large percentage of the gross domestic product, and the circumstances of the economic blockade, Iraq’s external indebtedness amounted to nearly (120) billion dollars.
5. High unemployment rates: the percentage of unemployed in Iraq increased from (4.9%) in 1987 to (16.7%) in 1997 and in 2004 reached (28.1%) and the size of unemployment increases when taking into account the percentage of underemployment (workers in working hours less than the minimum “) to be close to the estimations of the World Bank which reach to about 50%, this is an indication of the significant rise in unemployment rates when compared to the indicators of the 1980s and 1990s.

6. High poverty rate: The percentage of poor people in Iraq has increased significantly in recent years. A report issued by the Iraqi Center for Dialogue and Development at the end of 2005 indicated that about 70% of Iraqis live at subsistence level, which puts Iraqis at the bottom of the list of poor people in the world despite the richness of this country in natural resources and great human potential.

The economic reform process should aim at:
1. Attempt to balance the process of competition between the public and private sectors, and open the way for private sector initiatives, because privatization is an integral part of economic reform programs because it represents a radical change of economic policies in order to participate in mobilizing domestic resources necessary for economic and social development.
2. Alleviate the burden of the state budget as a result of its continued support for projects and companies that have proved economically ineffective, directing public spending towards supporting basic infrastructure and economic facilities of strategic importance, and reducing government subsidies to the basic commodities, as the Iraqi government is obliged under the emergency aid agreement to begin with the abolition of subsidies on oil derivatives at the end of 2005, amounting to $ 1.5 billion, and reduce the provisions of the ration card in the 2006 budget to $ 2.6 billion from $ 4 billion in the 2005 budget.
3. Developing the local financial market and encouraging its movement to ensure the development of productive capacities.
4. Create an appropriate investment climate to support domestic investments and try to encourage and attract foreign investments to activate the national economy.
5. Adopt strict austerity measures, especially in government expenditures, in order to increase public revenues.
6. Financial and banking reform: It is the core of economic reform programs and aims to create sound and competitive financial and banking systems in order to promote macroeconomic stability accelerate the pace of economic growth and enable the economy to adapt to external shocks. Financial and banking reform includes a package of measures, the most important of which are: Liberalize interest rates, liberalize foreign exchange rates, and stay away from directed credit.

Expected effects of the reform:
The experience of economic reform applied in a number of Arab countries indicates that it is pushing the country to a difficult transition period, the degree of its difficulty and duration depends on the ability of the state to choose the appropriate reform policies, the ability of national resources to respond to change, and the confidence of foreign capital in that country with its reform policies. The expected effects of reform on some economic and social indicators can be summarized as follows:
1. Impacts on poverty and income distribution: Reform policies will exacerbate poverty and harm the poor social groups of the population due to:
• Decreased government subsidies for key commodities such as food and energy.
• High commodity prices and inflation as a result of the removal of subsidies and devaluation of the local currency rate.
• Reduce public spending on social aspects such as education, health, housing and public transport.
• Unemployment caused by the deflationary impact.
• Decline in real wages as a result of inflation and the removal of labor guarantees and minimum rate of wages.
• Effect of price liberalization locally.
• The impact of trade liberalization and export orientation.
The reform will also increase income inequality due to:
1. The poor are more affected than the rich by measures to reduce public spending or the deflationary impact.
2. Inflation redistributes income from the poor to the rich.
3. Depriving the poor of education and thus of good income.

2. In the short term, reform will damage economic growth due to:
• Lack of production.
• Increased unemployment.
• Declining living standards.
• Deterioration of social services.

3. Implications for unemployment: The high rate of unemployment during the transitional period is one of the most important problems of reform, and there is no doubt that unemployment already exists and high in Iraq, but the restructuring of the public sector and privatization will create a new tributary of the flow of the unemployed, which requires to be patient in the subject Restructuring the public sector and privatization in light of the weakness of the Iraqi private sector and its inability to absorb the surplus labor force from the public sector.

Tools to counter the social effects of economic reform :
The success of economic reform requires the creation of an institutional environment capable of supporting human development and mechanisms to protect those affected by its negative consequences, which is called the social safety net, which represents an integrated package of institutional support measures not only for the affected groups, but also for those groups who do not benefit from the reform measures, and financial support for the creation of investment and employment opportunities, and the issuance of legislation that protect these groups and encourage their members and help them to take advantage of the expected benefits of reform, the social safety net under the reform programs should be based on a comprehensive methodological foundations as follows :
Addressing the causes of poverty and providing support to specifically serve the affected groups.
• Don’t create a additional administrative structure and a new bureaucracy and focus on the rehabilitation and distribution of surplus labor on new economic activities.

To address the effects of the correction on income and the labor market, a number of researchers present the following measures:
• Encouraging economic growth that is heavily utilized and the efficiency of working factor
• Protection of the poorest.
• Establishing safety nets and providing funding for them locally and internationally.

The work of these networks is distributed from labor-intensive public works projects to nutrition projects targeted to the target groups, or the establishment of salaries for very poor families, to projects to raise human capital, to projects to promote and support small projects, and the proposed elements of the social protection network in Iraq can be detailed as the following:
1. Provide the ration card for the poor and those whose income is below a certain limit.
2. To maintain government support for food stuffs that affect the lives of citizens such as wheat, rice, sugar and oil.
3. Provide cash benefits to the unemployed, the disabled and the elderly.
4. Providing health and educational services to the poor free of charge.
5. Supporting rural development programs to achieve a balance between the countryside and the city through financing the establishment of infrastructure projects, the rehabilitation of agricultural lands and the establishment of industrial and tourist areas.
6. support employment-related programs, which include the following:
• Funding public action programs to create job opportunities for young people.
• Promotion and financial support for small and medium projects.
• Training and qualifying young people to work in the private sector.

The application of the above mentioned social security measures will reduce the negative effects of the decline in private and public consumption. Therefore, it becomes necessary to take good care of the subject of economic reforms and to assess their economic, social and political consequences accurately and objectively because the general situation in Iraq is still burdened with many burdens and political, security and economic risks. .

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[DinarDavo]

1 hour ago, Laid Back said:

Iraq needs a new enlightenment age to achieve economic reform.

 

I hereby bequeath my Iraqi Dinar to my great grand children (or their greats as the case may be) .....

[Laid Back]

On 10/23/2019 at 8:17 AM, DinarDavo said:

 

I hereby bequeath my Iraqi Dinar to my great grand children (or their greats as the case may be) .....

I hope we don’t have to do that my friend DD,👍🏼😊

[Laid Back]

Is Iraq still a state? It is between US occupation and Iranian hegemony

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
Why is it called the political process in Iraq: After 2003, a new term has emerged and promoted by the Americans in Iraq to refute the theory of the state, which is “the political process.” So we see that some politicians, along with the Americans, have worked to waste the features of the state, it says “the political process instead of the state”. They claim that the political process is going well and does not say that the state is fine.

All these examples show that the decision in Iraq is not worth the state, according to the American term… Iraq is not a state.

Independence of the State of Iraq
On April 25, 1920, Iraq was placed under the British Mandate, and on August 23, 1921, Faisal I was crowned King of Iraq, and on October 3, 1932, Iraq became an independent state, Iraq was registered as a state, by UN Resolution No. 67 In the League of Nations, Iraq has since become an independent state.

Iraq had not yet been able to decide its sovereignty, as Britain was able to extend the Iraqi-British agreement by an additional 25 years until Iraq was able to manage itself, which disturbed the Iraqis at the time, and indeed the British remained until the military coup led by a group of Iraqi army officers who trained and studied military science by British people.

On July 14, 1958, the monarchy was overthrown in a military coup, and the Republic was proclaimed in Iraq, and since then Iraq has undergone multiple “coup” governments, until the country was occupied in 2003 by US and British forces, with the help of Spanish, Italian and Polish forces.

This occupation contributed to make the Iraqi state to lose its features at the hands of the occupation , represented by the American civil governor “Paul Bremer,” who was appointed head of the coalition authority, the 100 orders, which in its entirety restrain Iraq and immerse it in chaos, away from any socio-economic development and even political, and weak in the performance of its regional and international role , and here it should be noted to an important point , that no “elected” government can change these orders, because they are the basis of democracy according to their false claims (democracy of destroying Iraq tightly)!

“At that time, Bremer had the power of a resolution equal to the power of the Iraqis who make up the Governing Council and they are 25 Iraqis.”
How have the features of the state lost, according to the data, and after trying to accurately calculate the elements that constitute the structural foundations and strength of any state, consisting of land, people and government, and most important is the element of the rule of decision, which assumes the ability and power of the state to control its wealth and resources, and mobilize it in the directions that achieve Its economic, political and social interests, without structural external influences and interventions, and to form the basis of the national power of the state, based on the interaction of these three main elements to determine in principle the structure of the state.

After 2003, the state weakened, and this weakness resulted in many armed militias linked to external parties and loyalties, and the multiplicity of parties, whether political or religious, they control most decisions by force of arms and threat.

The country is living in chaos, and, most importantly, the chaos of arms that threatens the entities of the most powerful nations.
The follower of what is going on in the country is aware that it is the interests of the competing forces that determine the nature of the security situation basically, even the political one, as they deal with it just as it does with the TV sound indicator, so that it can raise or lower the sound, and even to keep it silent, which confirms the weakness of centralization of the state.

It makes no sense for a state that does not have a decision, because the decision-maker is the representative of the state and its actual leader, considering that the state is made up of a people, a governmental body that manages the affairs of the country, according to multiple systems of administration, and sometimes there is a council of exceptional circumstances, and sometimes there is a government formation of a set of powers that emerge democratically, regardless of the form of these government bodies, sometimes does not affect the shape of the state, provided that the decision is within the borders and not from outside.

There are many who own the decision in Iraq, and dispute the owners of the official decision and its powers, and those who have the power of legitimate decision in Iraq, can not tell his opponents that they are taking away the right of decision and office rights.

For example, the government is silent about all statements made by a militia official or an armed group regarding sovereign events, while the government is unable to give a clear opinion, because it knows that its opinion will not change the convictions, orientations and projects of those who disagree with the decision-making authority and the great disaster that there is more than one executive authority in Iraq and more than one legislative authority.

Iran exploits Iraq and its wealth:
Iran is at the forefront of tampering with many areas in Iraq, worsening the scene in the security situation, or exploiting the Iraqi economy and playing on the sectarian religious sect, and controls the largest and most powerful armed militias, which was once one of the most important causes of violence and killing in Iraq, it was the reason in plundering Iraq’s wealth, and have spread poverty, hunger and unemployment.

And achieved significant economic benefits in its favor at the expense of the Iraqi economy, which reached during the year 2017 to about $ 6 billion, making Iraq the third best economic destination for Iranian goods.

In return for this Iranian exploitation of Iraq’s capabilities, there is a growing popular rejection of Iranian influence. Despite all the money and men Iran has spent in 15 years in Iraq, Iraqis feel that Iran has played a negative role in their country, it has supported corrupt and sectarian parties, and supported the criminal killing militias , It has contributed to spreading the sectarian spirit of what Iraqis have not known before, not to mention the weakness of successive governments, in achieving the minimum essential services that the people need.

Imbalances in the constitutional system:
The United States claimed that its goal was to establish a civil state with diverse cultural and sectarian identities, including Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, to ensure the emergence of a democratic state, but Washington ignored the history of the formation of the Iraqi state’s identity since 1921, reducing the state to a range of sectarian identities, nationalities, and ethnic minorities according to Article (3) of the Constitution.

Religious parties and organizations, which worked to distribute positions and responsibilities in the state according to the system of sectarian quotas, it will be better to focus in the constitution on the concept of national political and social unity rather than the division of sectarian components, which constituted a strong pretext to formulate a set of decisions and policies that enshrined the system of political and sectarian quotas in the three authorities and various institutions and organizations.

Finally, society is geographically embodied in the homeland .It embraces the individual from one hand and from the other , the Sovereignty that sociologists consider it universal power as Durkheim described that it is the God of itself and what he meant was that it was an embodiment of civilization , the moral entity of the state , and the search for the sovereignty of the state externally can not be made except by the establishment of a rational state that establishes democratic principles, and establishes freedom and equality, and equal citizens in opportunities and rights.
Economic Studies Unit

Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

Mike Pence at Ain al-Assad base … Washington is waiting for the winner in the protests of Iraq and Iran.

Recent developments in Iraq and Iran, which are undergoing massive protests demanding political change in both countries, have forced US Vice President Mike Pence to inspect his country’s troops in Iraq. Interestingly, Pence made the inspection visit without meeting any official in Baghdad, as protests raged against the political class, which also affected Iran, which has influence in Iraq, in return, Pence met with the President of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani, in Erbil, after his visit to the base of Ain al-Assad, which includes US forces in western Iraq.

The US vice president stressed the United States’ commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty, expressing concern over Iranian influence, in line with protests in Iraqi cities. Pence’s visit came days after the disclosure of the New York Times and the Intercept site on Monday about hundreds of leaked Iranian intelligence reports which show the depth of Tehran’s influence in Iraq.

The visit created renewed debate in the country, especially after the senior US official repeated what President Donald Trump did, when he did not meet officials in the Baghdad government, despite the telephone contact with Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi.

The visit of the US Vice President carried more than a strategic dimension:
First: On the domestic level: He pointed directly to the necessity of change, saying, “We encourage the political class to meet the legitimate demands of peaceful demonstrators.” He also stressed the need to respect the sovereignty of Iraq, and took a covert behavior by ignoring to visit Baghdad, for two things: It is indifferent to the current government, a tacit message that may be addressed to demonstrators and political forces at the same time. Second, Washington does not want to be accused of supporting demonstrators and their dynamic positions, or seeking to change the political equation in Iraq explicitly.

US secretary of state, Pompeo addressed Baghdad directly saying: the United States welcomes any serious efforts by the Government of Iraq to address the continuing problems in society, adding that the government should listen to the legitimate demands of the Iraqi people who took to the streets to express their voice.

He pointed out that the United States is closely monitoring the situation, stressing that from the outset, the United States calls on all parties to renounce violence, and called on the Iraqi government to ease tight restrictions on freedom of the press and expression, noting that the US government will continue to support Iraqi institutions and people and the security, stability and sovereignty of Iraq.

US lawmakers agree that Abdul Mahdi is a friend of the United States and a good man, and there is a belief in Washington that he has the confidence of Sunnis and Kurds, but stressed that he should make his government more acceptable by the young Iraqis, and Senator Lindsey Graham said, Abdul Mahdi is a friend and we hope to be able to correct the situation, but corruption is rampant.

Democratic Sen. Tim Keane said the instability and protests in Iraq were worrying, noting that the United States could not intervene because US involvement could be a cause of unrest by some, so it must be done in a way the Iraqi government believes is beneficial.

Kane acknowledged that he did not know what the Iraqi government believed that it would be useful in the situation, so it would be better for the administration to present a good question-and-answer plan until the best was achieved.

Rep. Robin Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, served in the Marine Corps in Iraq. He feels the situation is not yet close to open conflict, but has called for Abdul Mahdi to resign.

Gallego added : The Iraqis want a less corrupt, more transparent and less bad government, ” , noting that the collapse of the government does not necessarily mean civil war.` and he added , `The Iraqis are also tired of Iran’s interference, and they fear that Tehran might increase its control and influence over the government, ” .

Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois said he shared concerns about political turmoil in the region, as well as Iran’s role in the conflict.

Apart from the familiar official comments in such cases, and back to the first conclusion for the American position on the protests in Iraq, analyst Anthony Issa, stressed that the mass protests in Iraq is a clear blow to Iran and its ambitions to consolidate an arc of influence from Tehran to Beirut, and in the words of Isa, Lebanon and Iraq are in a similar story about political regimes, which were formed in the wake of devastating sectarian wars.

The second strategic dimension: At the regional level: Mike Pence focused on Iran’s regional behavior, which he described as malicious, and stressed that Washington will not abandon its commitments to eliminate ISIS, or any extremist organization in the region, and his visit to Iraq and the US military Ain al-Assad base specifically , is a message to Tehran that Washington and its military power will not give up its strategic interests in Iraq for the benefit of any other regional powers, especially since Baghdad has a long-term strategic agreement with Washington.

This visit means that the US administration is acting decisively with Iran, regardless of President Donald Trump’s situation, and the internal difficulties of his re-election as president in November 2020, reflecting these real difficulties in congressional interrogation sessions centered on the pressure Trump is said to have exercised over Ukraine, in order to pursue the son of “Joe Biden” former vice president who is likely to be his rival from the Democratic Party in the next presidential election.

The US administration is a hard core that knows what Iran is, and does not depart from the hard line originally drawn by Donald Trump, who tore the deal over its nuclear file signed in July 2015 under President Barack Obama, on which he is being blamed. He reduced all the crises of the Middle East and the Gulf with its nuclear file, but didn’t take into consideration that the problem with Iran has never been in this file as much as it is elsewhere, the problem in Iranian behavior outside Iran, including Iraq, and in insisting on having Weapons by which it threatens its neighbors, such as ballistic missiles.

The hard line in the situation of US administration reveals that it knows a lot about Iran, especially what it is doing in Iraq, which has been transformed by the Bush and Obama administrations into a semi-Iranian colony and it reveals that the Trump administration now includes officials who know exactly the Middle East and the Gulf, especially Iran and what it has been doing since forty years, there is Vice President Pence, and there is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has a clear political discourse when it comes to Iran. John Bolton’s departure from the administration did not affect foreign policy. It is true that Bolton was a hawk and a proponent of military response to Iran , but it is also true that it is very important to avoid falling into the Iranian trap, simply it was shown that the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran was much greater than any military confrontation with it on which it was seeking to appear as if it confronts America in the region.

In any case, the recent events revealed the extent of the Iraqi people ‘s rejection of Iran, as well as the extent of Iranian pressure on Iraq, and the extent to which the future of the Iranian regime is linked to its influence in Iraq. In this sense , the Vice President’s warning to Iran through Iraq was appropriate , at a time when there is no indication that the popular revolution in Iran is just a passing event ,nor is there any indication that the Iraqi street is ready to acquiesce to the status quo that Iran seeks to impose.

The third strategic dimension: At the international level: To send a message to the international community that “Washington is concerned about Iraq in front the world, and that any failure of the political forces in Iraq to deal with the current crisis will require the United States to move using its own methods and tools.

But the United States is trying to stay away from direct interference in the Iraqi crisis, as a result of threats by leaders in some of the Popular Mobilization factions, allied to Iran, and confirmed by the Iranian ambassador in Iraq, “Iraj Masjedi” during a meeting with an Iraqi satellite TV on 26 September , that Iran is determined to respond against any US attack directed against Iran wherever the Americans are, including Iraq, either directly from Iran or through its allied forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization in Iraq and the Houthi group in Yemen.

The United States believes that allies of Iran are trying to shuffle the cards by accusing them and their allies, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, of supporting the protest movement directed largely against Iran, in the context of what is believed to be a “foreign conspiracy” targeting the Shiite power and Iranian influence in Iraq.

In any case, US options for change in Iraq appear to be very limited, but that depends mainly on the ability of protesters to continue their protests for a later period, during which the state of popular rejection of Iranian influence , the political forces and armed allies is increased .

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

Mesopotamia threatened by famine.

Researcher Shatha Khalil *

Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi

“Mesopotamia,” this is the name of Iraq, which refers to the fertility of its land and its abundance of water, which made it the cradle of the oldest civilization in history, where the natural internal and surrounding factors all help for it , and Mesopotamia continued to be a source of food, grain and plantations to its people and neighbors until recently, before the plight of the US occupation and the bloody events that followed.

With the collapse of the Iraqi state in 2003 , its political and economic security was collapsed , in addition to food security, which is intended to the extent of the country’s ability to meet the needs of basic food from its own product, or its ability to import under any circumstances and whatever the high world food prices.
Fears have intensified in Iraq for food security following the recent escalation of the conflict in a large swathe of the country, according to warnings issued today by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The prevalence of food insecurity has been doubled among poor families, especially the displaced, compared to those remaining in their homes; the highest concentration of households who suffer from food insecure was in the southern part of the country, Mosul and parts of Salah al-Din.

More than one million people have fled their homes and farms, leaving their jobs and property, where local agricultural production fell significantly due to the conditions experienced by Iraq from the lack of production materials and scarcity in irrigation water, and some important agricultural operations such as irrigation techniques and lack of fertilizers, as well as lack of control Borders and weak agricultural quarantine, this led to the dependence of Iraq on imported materials by 80%, as the imported product is a very large competitor, and may cover the local product because of there was no taxes on the imported materials , and the lack of support for the local product, and the large demand for imported product compared to the local product which opened the door widely in front of traders to import new and a various crops , suit the tastes of consumers.

The real reasons for the deterioration of agriculture in Iraq :
• Dependence of the Iraqi economy on oil as the only source of wealth, an immediate and not strategic choice, and neglect other sectors, including the agricultural sector.
. Water scarcity and desertification in large areas of land as a result of climate, weather and global warming, which contributed to the lack of rainfall.
• The negative policy exercised by the neighboring countries from which waters of the Iraqi rivers come and the countries that these rivers pass through to reach the Iraqi territory, which significantly affected the amount of water reaching Iraq.
• Laziness of the Iraqi peasant and his search for other professions more comfortable, and the transformation from producer to consumer of agricultural crops, and this trend occurred as a result of many reasons not only endured by the farmer, but by many parties.
• The lack of modern agricultural mechanization that supports the peasant in the reclamation of agricultural land, and reliance on old and sometimes primitive means, which affects the size and quality of the productivity of the land.
• Failure to provide modern chemical fertilizers by the state to the farmer, and if available, they are given at exorbitant prices.
• Failure to provide good quality of seeds for the farmer, which contributes smoothly in raising the quantity and quality of agricultural crops.
• The transformation of most agricultural land into housing units, which caused the lack of arable land, in the absence of governmental control over this behavior and no deterrent measures to prevent it.
• Failure of the state to embrace the peasant, not to sponsor him and to provide real support to him properly, and the lack of listening to his views caused the disruption of the work of the agricultural associations, which have become merely a relationship and have little action.
• The lack of financial allocations from the central and local governments to support the agricultural sector in all its details has led to the deterioration in this vital sector.
• Clear neglect of the agricultural reality in general, making Iraq a market for agricultural crops imported from neighboring countries, and making Iraq consumer and not productive despite the availability of all the ingredients in the country to be self-sufficient in this area and be a source of agricultural crops.
• Lack of agricultural engineering staff in agricultural divisions and field extension workers in most governorates, which negatively affects the entire agricultural production process.
• The current laws, especially the land laws, are not compatible with agricultural development, especially the ownership laws, the law (177) and the leasing law.
• Failure to activate the law of protection of agricultural production at the present time, as most specialists in this field believe that it is necessary to activate it as soon as necessary to improve the agricultural sector.
• The lack of arrival of the necessary services to many villages, where the services provided by municipal councils and civil society organizations focused on some villages but not others and according to favoritism and side relationships.
• Lack of regular trocar networks that help to reclaim land and reduce salinity, and rely on old networks that do not keep pace with scientific development in this area.
• The use of old methods for irrigation of orchards and fields, which led to the salinity of the soil and inadequate water for it.
• Pervasive administrative corruption in most facilities of state institutions and agricultural departments that impedes the development of the agricultural sector.
• The lack of protection of local agricultural products from competition from those imported from neighboring countries and other countries, which made most farmers leave the profession of agriculture because of this competition, which they can not keep up.
• The problem of not regulating the marketing processes and the difficulty of bringing the local product to the market because the farmer or the peasant depends on his weak possibilities that makes the merchant who imports the local product to dominate the marketing and selling process that suits the trader.
• The local product is characterized by the high cost due to the lack of the main financier of the crop (water / fertilizer / seed / fuel /electricity) and the lack of labor availability compared to the imported product, and the lack of awareness among consumers and farmer towards the crops, because of the diseases, insects or seeds or Jungles may give a new environment when they enter Iraq which has a negative impact on the local product and imported product itself, although most of the crops introduced may be genetically modified.

In Iraq , the issue is not far from the successive crises, which occurred as a result of the deterioration of the economic reality in various countries in that period, as we have no effective food security, and no successful economic policy and effective, not even good economic supervision, which follows the market and monitor the work of imported consumer and luxury goods .

If prices continue to decline, the deterioration will increase in the coming periods, as evidenced by the recent fragile fiscal policy and the contents of provisions and paragraphs of the federal budget law for the current year.

In spite of the richness of the Iraqi economy, and its oil wealth and tremendous funds, but it has entered the stage of decline over the past years, and this means that it suffers from serious and big problems that put it in an unenviable position, for several reasons, the most important of which fluctuating world oil prices, and large administrative and financial corruption which drains and exhausts its economic and financial resources, in addition to the absence of decision makers specialized in the economic and financial side.

The rate of economic decline in Iraq, is expected to reach below the rate of economic growth , and may rise relatively with increasing oil production rates and lower prices in the global market, but if prices continue to decline, the deterioration will increase during the coming periods, and this has been shown recently through the fragile fiscal policy, and the contents of the paragraphs and provisions of the federal budget law for the current year, in terms of the inclusion of oil prices in its items, without realistic expectations of fluctuation of oil prices in the market.
Unable to address the real problems of the Iraqi economy, the Iraqi authorities began to cheat public opinion of its economic potential, instead of introducing near and long-term strategic economic laws, or rehabilitating and building economic and industrial projects, and textile , dairy, iron and steel factories, and fields of gas and scientific projects. It did nothing .

The deterioration in all sectors, especially agriculture, has resulted in the decline in the volume of production of many crops, especially those that the country has known historically, such as palm, where the number of palm fell from about 30 million palm trees , a few decades ago , to about 12 million palm trees, while rice where the space allocated for its cultivation was declined .

Based on the foregoing, we conclude that the neglect of successive occupation governments for this sector, which represents the backbone of life, as an indispensable economic pillar, it can solve the problem of unemployment fully if the attention is paid to the countryside, and the provision of services of all kinds, and concern for health, paving roads and providing Electricity, there is no way for economic advancement and solving all financial crises and the problem of deepening unemployment only by taking agriculture as a strategic solution .

Strategic Studies Unit
Ra wabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[ronscarpa]

9 hours ago, Laid Back said:

Mesopotamia threatened by famine.

 

Thanks for this interesting and enlightening article Laid Back (+) ... RON  

[Laid Back]

13 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

 

Thanks for this interesting and enlightening article Laid Back (+) ... RON  

You are welcome my friend RON 👍🏼😊

Thank you for keeping us informed with CBI daily auctions and Gurus opinions.

Have a nice day.

[Rugbylaird19]

They should change the spelling to MESSopotamia.

[psdon]

52 minutes ago, Laid Back said:

You are welcome my friend RON 👍🏼😊

Thank you for keeping us informed with CBI daily auctions and Gurus opinions.

Have a nice day.

I give you a up vot 

[Laid Back]

8 hours ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

They should change the spelling to MESSopotamia.

It was my fault, sorry Rugbylaird19.

 

8 hours ago, psdon said:

I give you a up vot 

Thanks psdon 👍🏼😊

[Laid Back]

Iran is burning in Iraq.

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
The political , religious and social influence that Iran has built in Iraq over the past 16 years , has begun to crack terrifying the Tehran mullahs , especially since this rift in Iranian influence came popular , not political , which is a great loss that it is impossible for Iran to compensate or correct it .
Iran’s power in Iraq comes from most of the current politicians and the parties that came from Iran, and therefore, with the Iraqi people’s rejection of this corrupt class, the rejection extended to those who support this political class, which is Iran, stressing that the Iraqi youth and by their insistence to root out the entire political class in Iraq, Iran will lose all its political gains in the country within a short period.

This means that if Iran loses Iraq, its loss will extend to Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, as its influence in these countries came after the American invasion of Iraq and after its influence over it.

For some time, Iran imagined that it controlled the capabilities and economy of Iraq, through its agents and arms who work to serve its goals in Iraq. However, the Iraqi soul and the authentic Arab spirit of the Iraqi people reject any Iranian hegemony, or in curbing the corruption that Iran has established its networks and tails.

In the language of malicious Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Iraq, the network of alliances that Tehran has built in recent years means that it has an important advantage over its opponents when wars are required, as it relies heavily on its influence and its militias in Iraq.

Informed sources say that the Khafaga tribes – which are one of the major Shiite tribes in southern Iraq – serve as a model of two main parts, one of which explains how the tribes are heading towards pro-Iran, which is the strongest bet in the conflict, and the other explains how Tehran’s attempts to pressure them can lead to opposite results .

Some of the tribes most closely related to this talk are mostly Shiite, but other tribes are more diversified to include large Sunni factions, and some of these tribes are currently underestimating the importance of sectarian differences, and by adopting a unified approach more in response to the growing anger over the pressure from Iran and its agents, a sense of neglect on the part of Baghdad, and continuing security concerns.

The Iraqi street strongly rejects the Iranian presence and dirty interference in the Iraqi internal affairs, as it recently burned the Iranian consulate in the Iraqi city of Karbala, and removed the Iranian flag and raised the Iraqi flag.
Protesters also launched attacks on militia bases loyal to Iran in Nasiriyah and Diwaniyah.

Iran is not welcome in Iraq:
Research reports indicate that Iran may eventually resort to the option to negotiate the size and strength of its influence networks in Iraq, in the event that protests and unrest extend and continue, but it will seek to withstand and resist change and popular pressure campaigns by supporting its proxies, given that divided societies and weak states become an easy prey and catcher for the Iranian influence.

That is why western studies centers recommend supporting state institutions in the Middle East, in order to serve the national interests of the state, which is the first line of defense against attempts of the external influence, and that confronting Iranian influence must be based on this strategy.

However, regardless of Iran’s desperate attempts to maintain its influence in the region, the message came out loud and clear throughout the Arab world, whether from Iraq or Lebanon, which is that Iran’s pursuit of interference in the internal affairs of the Arabs, is not welcome.

In the same context, the American writer Smith says that American policymakers who seek to keep Shi’ite and Sunni tribes away from Iran are required to address the real issues that the Iraqis are currently focusing on .
For example – and the talk is still for Smith – the United States, which has long focused on providing security and military solutions to the Baghdad government, should demonstrate its soft and rough power in the face of Iran, by paying greater attention to retraining and equipping some sectors of the local Shi’a tribes, and giving them the necessary means to express their concerns and problems.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

Economic policies in Iraq must be changed.

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
To understand the reality of the Iraqi economy and economic development, you must understand the nature and origin of the Iraqi economy to know the reality and the future that awaits it.
If we refer to the legislations that were issued after the year 2003 that formed the basis on which the systems were built to build what is known as the state, which the occupant relied in its building on laws that he issued and enacted himself, such as the State Administration Law and the Financial Management Law, and ignoring the legacy of the Iraqi state for eight decades, this created disparities between groups of society, marginalized groups, no equality, and religious, sectarian and ethnic tendencies were raised , and the concept of the homeland was absent, and was replaced by components, which indicated a failure in all areas, that appeared clearly after the withdrawal of the American army in 2011.

This was reflected in the distribution of wealth between individuals, components, and governorates, and the criterion of wealth distribution was ethnic and sectarian, which directly and indirectly affected the structure and performance of the Iraqi economy.

Total dependence on revenues of selling oil creates a dependency culture and does not push the state and people toward fruitful, competitive economic production. And when this phenomenon is combined with a government that seizes the proceeds of oil resources to enhance its tyranny and increase the wealth of its leaders, the results are devastating.

To know what is rent? Who is the rentier state? What are the disadvantages of its economy. The first person to use this term – the rent- as a form of financial revenue is (Adam Smith) in writing (The Wealth of Nations), but the first one to use it as an economic pattern is (Karl Marx) in writing (capital), and that the meaning of the word rent is development and prosperity.

As for the term rentier state, it can be defined: It is the state that relies almost entirely on one source to meet its government spending, and this source is represented by oil, and the oil state with rentier economy is heavily dependent on oil, thus its economy is based on two levels:
– The internal level: It is the state’s control of oil resources and specifying ways to spend its revenues.
– The external level: is dependence on oil and its revenues.

A country that obtains a large part of its income from external sources, whether it is from natural, agricultural, or extractive resources in the form of rentals, the state has control over it and its distribution. Controversy has arisen over the term rentier state, especially after the emergence of the term post-rentier state, but there is consensus that the rentier state is the country that relies on oil revenue to meet its government expenditures.

As for the state after the rentier, it is the country that relies on the proceeds of its exports of raw materials in order to meet its government spending. In fact, we can divide rentals into three categories:
* The first: natural rent, which is represented by the natural resources available to the state, such as oil and other mineral resources.
* The second: strategic rent. This type is represented by the state’s location in terms of ports and the extent of its control over trade routes or its enjoyment of a geo-political advantage, such as supervision over the waterways.

* Third: Transferable rent, which is represented by the state receiving aid and grants in addition to other forms of support.

Iraq and the rentier country: – Iraq possesses many resources that have not been optimally exploited and totally dependent on one resource represented by oil and the neglect of the other sectors that if they were taken care of it and implemented their projects, Iraq would become one of the richest countries in the world. The feature of the Iraqi economy today and for a long time, especially after 2003, is that it is a rentier economy with distinction and the Iraqi state’s dependence on oil revenues only , puts it in a very difficult position, because the federal budget is calculated mainly on oil and at a rate of 95% and it does not depend on other sectors and the basic features of the Iraqi economy being a rentier economy are :
– All state revenues come from oil revenues.
– Oil is the main source of the local economy.
– The recipient of the rentier oil revenues and has the control over it is the government.
— Population activity focuses on the consumption and redistribution of oil rents without seeking to produce it.

As Iraq possesses many resources that enable it to advance the economic reality and get it out of the circle of unilateral rentier economy to a productive, developed and diversified economy, by activating the role of other economic sectors such as agriculture and industry in addition to the service and tourism sector.

Iraq has very large components for religious tourism, if a number of development and strategic plans were put in place to invest, the Iraqi economy would be transferred qualitatively and substantially, but at the same time there are a number of obstacles that prevent the transition of the Iraqi economy from the rentier economy to the productive economy. The most prominent of these reasons are the following: –
. The deteriorating security situation.
• Political confusion and failure to unify political positions by the ruling elites.
• The method used to implement government contracts and the nature of the direction of these contracts.
Among the most notable disadvantages observed in the rentier economy in Iraq are the following:
• (1) Control of one group of the society over the centers of wealth and has direct control over its distribution.
• (2) Poor distribution of national income, despite the wealth of the state, but not all members of society benefit from it.
• (3) The Iraqi society is a consumer society and importer of everything despite the possibility of reducing this import by activating the agricultural, industrial and service sectors within the country, and thus transforming the economy from rent to a more diversified and integrated economy.
• (4) The political and economic dependence of the state towards the major powers.
• (5) One of the major disadvantages of the rentier state is its dependence on one resource, which is oil. If it is reduced or depleted – its depletion – it will negatively affect all areas of life. Finally, we can put a number of points through which the Iraqi economy can be promoted and shifted towards a productive economy, as follows: –
• Pay attention to the educational sector because it represents the cornerstone of any societal renaissance and through it the cadres are launched to make any political, economic or social changes.

. There must be a change.
This change cannot happen overnight. A wide class of unproductive employees has emerged, some of whom are just a small screw in the mighty corruption machine. This class will not accept change and reform voluntarily and obediently, and will not recognize the reality of its parasite and will not easily give up its illegal privileges.

In the army, the number of holders of high ranks has grown without merit and in a manner that is not in line with the size and capabilities of the army. The number of generals in the Iraqi army is ten times the number in the American army! As for their professional level, it is a very different issue. And say the same in the police and other government departments, both federal and local, many of their certificates are forged or issued by trivial institutions.

And do not forget about tens of thousands , and hundreds of thousands of people who are not present “non-existent staff” and deputies who receive pensions for their work in Parliament for one session, in addition to the beneficiaries of the Rafha law and the law of true political prisoners and counterfeiters.

All of this was only to establish enough loyalties to a degree that allowed the great looting of parties and their leaders from major projects, real and fake. In short, it is a systematic looting process of state resources, which should be used to serve all people and improve their lives.
How do we get out of this pathological anomaly that cannot be sustained? How do we turn to good governance so that the state departments are limited to the minimum number of employees and associates who are qualified to carry out its work? This will certainly require a significant reduction in the number of employees and associates and the filling of gaps in organized corruption.

There are two types of employees in the state with very low productivity who live on their resources in a parasite, and another class deprived of government jobs dream of obtaining them, at a time when universities are no longer concerned with raising the scientific level, as much as they are interested in issuing certificates that are like work permits in the state, the holders are not suitable for any fruitful productive work.

If there is a tremor in the oil market, its price drops, or its exports are hindered for any reason, the entire country is at risk of collapse.
The situation that we must come to is the case of good governance, which does not protect organized plunder but rather protect the rights of all, especially the weak and the deprived. The steps necessary to achieve this that should be considered may include the following:-
-Using modern technology to complete the unified identity project, which uses the biological markers of each individual, so he (or her) has a single, fixed number that is used in all the individual’s dealings with the state. This will help eliminate the phenomenon of multiple government salaries per person and the phenomenon of “non-existent staff.”

-Reconsidering the entire government apparatus and abolishing institutions and departments, which add nothing but classes of useless , expensive and possibly harmful bureaucracy. For example, if we strengthen the Office of Financial Supervision and provide it with efficient and honest elements, we will not need the departments of inspectors general, the Integrity Commission, or the recently established Supreme Council for Combating Corruption.

The introduction of computerization on a large scale in the work of state departments with systems established by specialists, allowing reviewing all steps in every government transaction with its timing and the person who allowed or stopped it, and facilitating the inspection of the proper course of work, to be an important tool in reducing administrative corruption.

-Establishing the Public Service Council and ensuring that qualified administrators , proved to be efficient and not politicized , even if we bring them from outside the country in the early stages. Appointment to all state departments shall be made through this Council exclusively and in actual competition.
– Filteration the civil and military departments of the state, under the supervision and management of the Public Service Council, to the minimum level capable of performing its tasks and restricted with the qualified staff according to specific criteria to verify experience.

-Abandoning the principle of life-long employment, so who works in the state is like the one who works in the private sector, and he has to be productive and he is not promoted functionally except in a competitive manner (competition creates creativity).

If it is found that he is redundant or not efficient in his work, his services can be terminated after simplified and fair procedures, and he can be referred to the register of those laid off from work and treated like them until he finds another job. The procedures governing all of this shall be under the supervision of the Public Service Council, which should be immunized from favoritism, extortion and abuse.

-Strengthening the social security system, so that it includes all unemployed citizens without exception, and creating training centers to prepare technicians and administrators who the private sector needs.

These changes mean a revolution in concepts and mentalities and a shift from a parasitic dependent culture to a productive competitive culture, with the exception of those unable to work. But all reforms will not be possible without establishing security and creating an environment conducive to the private sector and national and external investment to create increased job opportunities, especially for young people.

Experiences in successful societies:
China, for example, where all the workforce was working exclusively in the country in 1965. There was no work outside the government. In 1997, after years of economic openness brought about by Deng Shaopeng, workers in the private sector accounted for about 10 percent of the workforce and produced 50 percent of the national product. After twenty years, in 2017, the percentage of workers in the private sector reached about 44 percent of the total workforce (340 million out of a total of 776 million). All this happened in a country ruled by the Communist Party and still supporting the public sector for ideological and security reasons.

In other rentier countries like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, with their differences, there are programs to reduce government employment and expand the role of the private sector, which can be studied and benefited from what can be benefited from.
The wealth provided by the reforms, the filtration of the government apparatus, and the control of financial and administrative corruption, can be used in building and developing infrastructure such as roads, bridges, transportation, communications, and raising the level of education and health services. It will make a change in the level of life of the country and its outcome will be great. Without it, we will undoubtedly remain on the path of a sloping that its end will be catastrophic.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[murd11]

Whom does one believe, Laid Back or Luigi? Luigi is full of baloney so Laid Back is the winner

[Laid Back]

42 minutes ago, murd11 said:

Whom does one believe, Laid Back or Luigi? Luigi is full of baloney so Laid Back is the winner

Thanks for your input my friend murd11,

I Like to post news articles that shows Iraq reality. all articles come from Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies. Economic Studies Unit.

Iraq needs Political and Economic reforms if they want to move to an open market economy.

Still some work to do.

 

Go reforms

Go open market economy

Go RV 

[Laid Back]

The formation of the government … Iraq’s continuing dilemma.

The crisis of the Iraqi regime is deepening day after day due to the popular protests in which the various political and security means have not succeeded in stopping it .And regarding the intractability of appointing PM to succeed the resigned Adel Abdel Mahdi, as this resignation instead of leading to a way to calm the street, it has turned into a dilemma that might bring the regime to the abyss of the fall.

After the Iraqi President, Barham Salih, extended the deadline for choosing a candidate to take over the task of forming the government, until next Thursday, there are only 72 hours left for political forces to agree on the name of the prime minister of the seventh government since the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, amid growing public rejection of all party candidates to take the post . At a time when the street’s rejection of all the names whose names were leaked as a candidate for the position is no longer the only obstacle to filling the governmental void,2 but the sharp differences between the political parties and traditional competitors for power increased the complexity of the process of searching for a successor to Abd al-Mahdi that would be compatible with these groups and capable of marketing by the angry street.

On a political level, the Alliance of Sa’aroon, which is supported by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the Alliance of al-Nasir led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, refused on Sunday to nominate any party member to head the next government. This refusal came in response to the circulation of the name of the resigned leader from the Islamic Dawa Party and MP in Parliament Muhammad Shi’a Al-Sudani as a candidate for prime minister.

Sudani’s presidency of the government in relation to Sadr and Abadi means the return of their archenemy, former Prime Minister and leader of the Dawa Party, Nuri al-Maliki, by force to power, even it is indirectly.
Iraqis went to the polls several times after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, but this did not produce stability, and did not open the door to prosperity. Hundreds of billions of dollars evaporated. When people protested, “death squads” went to the arenas to kill them . Painful facts. Some of those who danced with joy around Saddam’s body showed in their practices that they were Saddam from vein to vein. Nobody yearns for the time of the “Inspiring Leader”. Disasters of his reign are visible and it’s still fresh. But what is the size of the human and economic losses suffered by Iraq in the post Saddam era?

And by following the current developments taking place in the country, the formation of the new government tends to be in the benefit of the demonstrators who exerted pressure on the caretaker government headed by Adel Abdel-Mahdi until its resignation, according to followers of Iraqi affairs, that the government’s resignation did not come at the request of large or small blocs but rather in response to the popular movement .

And they explained that “the political blocs violated the constitution when it brought the government of Abdul-Mahdi without revealing the name of the largest bloc that is being talked about now,” pointing out that “the government resigned with the pressure of the street, and the natural thing now is that the largest bloc is the people.”

And that “the most appropriate for the Iraqi situation now is the formation of a rescue government, because the country is going through unnatural conditions, but the opinions of the political forces do not go in this direction, so it is necessary to go towards another option, which is the formation of an interim government according to the will of the people that undertakes several tasks, most notably the enactment of a fair elections law, and the formation of a new elections commission, after which the parliament will be dissolved and go toward early elections.

Yesterday, Sunday, leader of the “National Coalition”, Iyad Allawi, called on the President of the Republic for the next government to be “mini and temporary whose ceiling does not exceed one year and does not run for elections, but rather prepares for fair and transparent elections with a new election law”, stressing, in a message addressed to Salih, on the need to accelerate finding the solution to the current crisis.

On the other hand, the “al-Bina” coalition insists on being the largest bloc in parliament, as the alliance’s deputy, Mohamed Al-Baldawi, said that “al-Bina ” is the largest number and will nominate the candidate for prime minister.

The protesters insist on a basic condition that excludes all party candidates from the mandate to head the new government. The slogans of the demonstrations in Baghdad and the provinces agreed to reject all the names proposed by the parties, with the necessity of assigning the government to an independent figure whom the protesters would be satisfied with.

Observers of the Iraqi issue believe that “appointing a prime minister by the political class will be a factor in escalating the protests, and the forces of corruption are well aware of this,” stating that “everything that the corrupt endorses does not mean the demonstrators, and the demonstrations and sit-ins will remain until the last corrupt in Iraq is toppled.” Therefore, the appointment of a prime minister by the current political class does not mean the demonstrators. And they continued, that “putting up the name of the Sudani is an underestimation by the political parties and powers, and may lead to serious repercussions on the field situation,” indicating that “the Iranians should lift their hand this time, and let the Iraqis do what they want, not what is dictated to them through the political blocs that are loyal to ” Iran, ”adding that“ the greatest rejection of the Sudani is no longer due to his being a former minister or a leader in the Dawa Party, as much as provoking the Iraqis to the return of Soleimani to Iraq again to draw what he wants and imposes the Sudani on them. ”

Followers of the Iraqi issue also see that the political impasse continues in Soleimani’s inability to find a substitute prime minister for Abdel Mahdi in the face of the uprising insistence on nominating a prime minister with popular characteristics and there is no role for the parties in his nomination, but the issue in Soleimani’s view is not a choice but lies in his fear that achieving the demands of the masses in choosing the prime minister which can lead to the fall of the dominoes in the demands of dissolving parliament and the electoral law and amending the constitution by the way of removing parties, and this is what worries the Iranian regime.

They added that the Iranian military provocations to the American military presence in Iraq, which were recently repeated, were met with strong reactions from the American administration, Ali Khamenei understands more than others its significance in relation to the political chaos inside Iraq, and the possibility of accelerating its dismantling after Tehran was forced to withdraw from Iraq. Despite Iranian arrogances because of the Iranian weapons piles in the hands of thousands of poor followers on the Iraqi soil and monitored from American eyes, but Tehran is afraid to go to the last half in the military confrontation that ends its presence in Iraq amid an Iraqi people’s welcome.

And they continued that what is happening in Iraq today is a reduction of the blood’s decision that the regime chose after the choice of corruption and looting from 2003 until today, and for this reason the historical moment opened to the people, and the hour of Qassem Soleimani’s departure from Iraq is not far away, and he will cry over his terrorist past while he was implementing the project of eliminating the youth, displacing the people of Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Fallujah and Jurf Sakhar from their homes, and moving between the Iraqi mounds and valleys, boasting and healing with the people of Iraq, but his grandfather Kisra had previously bid farewell to his palace defeated in the city of Al-Madaen in eastern Baghdad.

What the political class thinks today will not be possible tomorrow. This is because the crisis, despite all the regional and international ambiguities surrounding it, was and is still Iraqi and have not been exposed to any attempt to internationalize.

The plight of Iraq is a comprehensive national, not in the procedures and details, and the loss of the independence of the Iraqi homeland is the greatest tragedy, which paved, and led to a comprehensive chaos that the gangs of weapons, theft and looting are ruling by proxy and originality.

The essence of the Iraq crisis is not to alter and flip the stalling formulas of the formation of the Iraqi government, nor to present a new electoral law to the House of Representatives, nor in a non-partisan judicial formation for the Electoral Commission, as these are all deceptive indications, it will not succeed in masking the miseries of the desperate wretched power system, and will not hide from the eye , the essence of the plight of Iraq, as a great country that lost its national independence, lost its prestige and dignity, and its immense fortunes were stolen from the source, and subjected to an abnormal constitution, developed by Paul Bremer, the ruler of the American occupation, and with one single purpose, is to erase the Arabism of Iraq after its marginalization, and the “constitutionalism ” of the process of dismantling Iraq , and fabricating a “federal” of fragmentation and division of the Society into rival sects, especially in the dominant Arab sector, and the conversion of religious sects into quarrelsome “nationalities” all the time.

The alphabet of national independence disappeared, the fabric of Iraqi national unity disintegrated, and the Arab characteristic backbone of the Iraqi formation was broken, and wars of displacement and sectarian separation took place between the Sunnis and Shiites of Iraq, which was instinctively realized by the Shiite uprising crowd, and their angry revolutions continued, until they culminated in the recent continuous uprising, whose youths are flocking to the death and martyrdom, to seek the restoration of the Arabism of Iraq and its liberation from the bond of dual humiliation, set by the American occupation and Iranian hegemony, and with a heroic determination apparent among the revolutionaries who want to restore Iraq to the Iraqis first. There is no value in any talk of democracy in an occupied and humiliated country, as the democracy is not a means of distraction and blindness, but rather a means of building the authority of a free people.

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

In light of the protests, the general budget of the Iraqi state 2020, a disaster awaiting the Iraqis.

Researcher Shatha Khalil *
Economists expected that the year 2020 will be one of the most difficult years for Iraqis economically, and this is a result of the poor political performance of the government, and the widespread corruption in all joints of the state, which causes the waste of most of the country’s imports and its going into the pockets of the corrupt, and smuggling them out of the country, in the absence of legal accountability.

Iraq’s budget for 2020, which is still in circulation in light of the difficult conditions in which Iraq lives, protests in the Iraqi street, and the activity of parties and militias, complete chaos , the picture has not yet emerged to draw the features of the new government , and until now the draft of the budget has not been submitted to Parliament , and we are a few days a way from the beginning of the year 2020, that foreshadows an imminent economic disaster for Iraq.

Initial budget figures indicate that its size will be approximately 150 trillion dinars, which is a large number and even greater than all past budget numbers, but evidence indicates that it will be the worst at all, and the first and most serious problem is the size of the large deficit in it…

Here is a detailed explanation of the Iraq budget 2020 :
If Iraq now gets $ 72 billion in annual oil revenues (with 4 million barrels of oil exports per day, at $ 50 a barrel), then the main ruling expenditures in the state’s general budget, which do not need any doubts, are as follows:
– $ 40 billion salary.
– $ 25 billion for the oil and gas sector and licensing rounds costs.
$ 20 billion to pay off debt and compensation payments, totaling $ 100 billion, with a deficit of $ 28 billion in revenue compared to (only) these expenses. ”

If we add non-oil revenues (estimated at $ 10 billion at best), the net deficit will be $ 18 billion,”while“if all of our oil revenues do not cover these expenses (and they often do not cover them, where the general budget suffers Successive of a “fixed” deficit of at least $ 25 billion annually, and needs other sources of funding).
What about the rest of the expenditures represented by the investment budget expenditures, the requirements for the advancement of destroyed infrastructure, and the costs of stalled and idle projects, and the development and investment expenditures in a country where the majority of its population suffers from unemployment and poverty, and all its cities, districts, areas, and villages suffer from sustainable ruin, no schools, no reconstruction , no health, no infrastructure, but what about spending on the rest of the other operational budget items (goods and services), which are not less than 20 billion dollars?
The 2020 budget included new paragraphs that led to a significant increase in expenditures due to the huge public pressure and the demonstrations that circulated throughout the country, which call for reform and providing job opportunities and improving bad services, as financial allocations were added to the new appointments, return the dismissed, and the allocation of new sums to improve the various services, as well as reducing lots of fees and taxes in an attempt by the government to absorb public anger.

As for maximizing resources for the budget, this is almost impossible, because our budget depends mainly on oil imports at a rate of more than 93%, and the volume of oil exports is set in the budget at about three million and eight hundred barrels per day, and at a price of about $ 52 a barrel, including the region’s share amounting of 250 thousand barrels per day where there is no real guarantee of delivery it by the government of the region.

Not to mention that Iraq will reduce its oil production by about 189 thousand barrels per day, according to the agreement of OPEC, as from the beginning of January of the new year, and if we take another factor, which is the expectation of a decline in world oil prices due to the expected global economic recession, as a result of the economic war between America and China, and the great tension between America and Iran, the government’s task of maximizing budget resources will be almost impossible.

As for the volume of external and internal debts, which amounted to about 130 billion dollars, in addition to the great benefits that are constantly increasing on these debts, it has been allocated about 20 trillion dinars from the budget to pay these debts.
The government stands almost incapable of tackling these big budget problems, and will have to deal with its huge deficit to take measures, including resorting to loans already existed in the budget, and to the financial liquidity in the Ministry of Finance, and the remainder of the deficit will inevitably be large and will remain until the end of the year .

Especially in the midst of difficult economic and political conditions, and the suffering of the Iraqi people due to the apparent lack of basic sectors, despite the huge oil wealth.

This situation negatively and significantly affected the existing economic situation, as we know that economic operations work better with the availability of stability in the economic environment, and in the absence of this situation, the dealers (sellers or buyers) will bear higher costs as a result of the existing risks and the matter gets worse.

All countries and other oil-producing countries , which have a good economic organization, are working to develop investments, and plan a decent living for the citizen and for future generations, because oil does not constitute more than 35% of its gross domestic product, and 40% of the revenues of the state’s general budget, while Iraq ( Oil constitutes 65% of the gross domestic product, and 95% of the state’s general budget revenue).
The World Bank in its report indicated the continuation of economic growth in Iraq in 2020, reaching a peak of 5.1% before falling to 2.7% in 2021, but he warned the Iraqi government of waste in spending, at a time when the public budget expects a 27% increase in spending on the annual basis, due to large increases in the public sector wage bill, transfers, goods, services, and allocations to the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The bank notes that the widening budget deficit involves more limited resources, devoted to reconstruction efforts and to mitigate any possible drop in oil prices.

And the next Iraqi government must work to develop a plan to develop oil revenues in industrial and agricultural investment, and get out of the restrictions of the rentier state to build a strong modern country, whose people live with economic prosperity commensurate with their (wasted) and stolen wealth.

The bottom line, the Iraqi government must resort to several measures to avoid these problems, the most important of which are:
-The government should also provide job opportunities in the important economic sectors in the economy, whether in the public or private sector, and emphasize the development of other economic sectors other than extractive ones, especially the development of small and medium enterprises to advance the local sector.

– Using the principle of justice in distributing oil wealth to the people, and not according to partisan interests and political agreements.
– Achieve justice for all Iraqis with the same rights in terms of financial entitlements, especially taxes, fees, and water and electricity wages.
– And most importantly, the border outlets, especially the oil export ports in the south, must be secured, as they represent the only economic nerve, representing 99% of the Iraqi state’s revenues.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

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Iraq … The national state is the solution.

The differences between the religious Marja in Najaf on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand are widen with every week that passes from the age of the Iraqi uprising, which puts the forces and parties in Iran’s orbit in an unprecedented position, translated by the state of political chaos during the last days in Baghdad. This comes at a time when demonstrations continue in Iraq, as tens of thousands gathered in the squares, public squares and main streets of Baghdad and southern and central Iraq yesterday, in response to calls by Iraqi activists on social media during the past hours, and the protesters confirmed their adherence to their basic demands that they have raised since the beginning of the last October, and Iraqi security forces deployed around the protest areas without incident.

Just a few hours before the end of the constitutional deadline for selecting a new head of the Iraqi government , the Federal Supreme Court in Iraq responded to an inquiry submitted to it by President of the Republic Barham Salih regarding the major parliamentary bloc, in which the constitution restricted the right to nominate a prime minister, as it confirmed in a statement that the great bloc was formed by the largest number of deputies in the first sessions of Parliament after the elections.

This assertion from the court led to confusion of the various political forces and allowed again the multiplicity of interpretations of the decision, as each party attributes to itself the title of the Great Bloc, whether the “Saroon” coalition led by Muqtada Al-Sadr, or the “Al-Fatah” coalition led by Hadi Al-Amiri.

The court said in a statement issued today at noon, that it “received last Thursday a request from the President of the Republic regarding the identification of the major bloc, and that after scrutiny and consultation and to refer to the priorities of its interpretation of the provision of Article (76) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 and its contents that the expression (the largest number of parliamentary bloc ) contained in Article (76) of the constitution means either the bloc that was formed after the elections through one electoral list, or the bloc that was formed after the elections from two or more lists from the electoral lists, and entered the House of Representatives and its seats became after entering the parliament and its members took the constitutional oath in the first session the most numerous than the rest of the blocs, the President of the Republic assigns its candidate to form a cabinet in accordance with the provisions of Article (76) of the Constitution and within the period specified in it.

It added, “This is what the Supreme Federal Court has decided upon in accordance with its decisions mentioned above in the interpretation of Article (76) of the Constitution and the statement of the concept of the largest number of parliamentary blocs.” Noting that “the decisions of the Federal Supreme Court are final and binding for all the legislative, executive and judicial authorities stipulated in Article (47) of the constitution, and accordingly the Federal Supreme Court decides its commitment to its aforementioned decisions.

Last Friday, the Iraqi religious authority, Ali Sistani, today, Friday, calls to hold early parliamentary elections after the enactment of a fair election law and an independent election commission. And the representative of Sistani, in Karbala, Sheikh Abd al-Mahdi al-Karbalai, quoted as saying, “We have indicated in a previous sermon that the people are the source of powers and from it they derive their legitimacy as stipulated by the constitution, and accordingly the nearest and safest way to get out of the current crisis and avoid going to the unknown or chaos or internal fighting is to return to the people by holding early elections.

What is going on in Iraq is in fact a struggle between the will of the Iraqi people of all its components, and Iranian domination over the main joints of decision in the Iraqi state and society, since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, which caused the fragmentation of the Iraqi community fabric, and entered Iraq, the Arabs and the whole region in the cycle of violence, whose results are still interacting and exacerbating .
What is happening in Iraq today is a reduction of the blood’s decision that the regime chose after the choice of corruption and looting from 2003 until today, and for this reason the historical moment opened to the people, and the hour of Qassem Soleimani’s departure from Iraq is not far away, and he will cry over his past when he was implementing the youth elimination project and the displacement of the people of Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Fallujah and Jurf al-Sakhr from their homes, and he moves between the Iraqi mounds and valleys boasting and doing against Iraqi people , but his grandfather Kisra had previously bid farewell to his palace defeated in Al-Madaen city east of Baghdad.

Iraqis today are in the throes of a massive popular revolution in order to achieve supreme national goals that Iraq has missed for many years. It appeared that some officials did not respond to the call of the revolution, as they revolve around the same system, and have their networks and interests, whatever their political affiliations. It is a very strange situation for everyone to be on one side and the people on the other side. In order for the regime to escape its crime, create the name of the third party! But there are those who play on the ropes as a hidden column, declaring their support for the revolution and concealing their loyalty to the regime. Accordingly, Iraqi society is divided between itself, revolutionaries and supporters, and between rulers and loyalists. There are millions with steadfast revolutionaries with others silent. But there are insignificant, insignificant sectarian clerics, beneficiaries, mercenaries, and corrupt members of society, who are characterized by their shaky characters and their sick psychologists.

The situation in which Iraq currently lives is mainly due to the weakness of the Iraqi state, which allowed the Iranian regime to infiltrate into the state’s structure through the various parties, forces, and militias that were associated with it in many forms, and for various reasons, until it became an organic part of the aforementioned regime itself, going according to orders and dictates coming from the regime of the Wilayat` al-Faqih, through its various military and intelligence services.

As for the American influence on the arrangement of the Iraqi situation, it appears that it was not as strong and large as the Iranian role. However, it was clear that the consensus between the two parties was the cornerstone of the agreement on the names of the three presidencies and the formation of the government. But despite that compatibility, the influence of Iran was greater, due to its penetration, proximity, and size of its presence on Iraqi soil, along with its direct relations with the crowd factions and other military militias, which have never covered up their submission to the Iranian regime, and their commitment to the directions and security orders of Iran.

These militias have managed to remove the Iraqi national forces that were, and still are, calling for national action and transcend sectarian borders, which are the borders that have been established , and the Iranian regime has invested in them, so that as a result of his influence, the Iranian regime managed to include the militias associated with it within the Iraqi defense military system , and gets money and weapons from the Iraqi budget, and recruits Iraqi citizens, but the leadership remains in the hands of the Iranian regime, and are charged with missions in favor of the Iranian strategy.

But the Iraqi popular protests, especially in the southern regions, in Nasiriyah, Basra, Najaf itself and Baghdad, have unveiled what is going on, and people are publicly calling for the Iranian regime to stop its interference in Iraq and its people, so that the Iraqis can find solutions to their problems themselves. These are problems of living, educational, health in the first place, which successive governments have not been able to address since the fall of the previous regime, despite the fictional financial revenues that Iraq is supposed to receive in exchange for oil exports. However, it seems that the organized chaos in the country has enabled corruption to transfer these sums to the accounts of private officials; or to accounts around which suspicions exist in terms of serving the Iranian strategy in the region, including supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in the face of the revolution of the Syrian people.

The problem in Iraq is deep structural, related to the structure of the state, the militia’s ability to pressure and interfere, and to impose dictations on the government with direct and indirect support from the Iranian regime.

The precarious situation in the region, and the allegations of fighting terrorism, were among the justifications adopted by the Iranian governments to evade entitlements of accountability. But after the outcome of the massive negative accumulations was revealed, it became clear to people that what is happening in Iraq is not the result of the unstable situation in the region, but rather that it was the corruption of the government; and that there are many doubts about the fight against ISIS, especially if one follows the map of ISIS attacks in Iraq, and checked with a closer look at the nature of the beneficiaries from the ISIS attacks.

With the formation of the Adel Abdul-Mahdi government, everyone expected a kind of stability, and it was understood that the agreement on Abdel-Mahdi was the outcome of the US-Iranian consensus; but it seems that the huge negative accumulations faced by the Abdul-Mahdi government in almost all other fields of life were greater than the capacity of the government concerned, therefore It was the great public explosion that put everyone ahead of their responsibilities. It is enough and people can no longer afford it.
The question remains: What is the solution?
The most effective and best solution for Iraqis with all their affiliations is the Iraqi national solution, and the basis of this solution is to build a national political system that guarantees the rights of all citizens of all affiliations, and in all fields without exception on the basis of respecting privacy, ensuring rights, and adopting the principle of pluralism in its broad sense within the framework of national unity , which cuts the road to all foreign interference, to make the interests of Iraqis and their country at the top of priority list for any upcoming Iraqi government, emanating from an elected parliament through the free will of citizens.

As for Iraq to remain a backyard for the Iranian regime, through which it practices a policy of destabilizing the security and stability of the region, interfering in the affairs of its states, and tears its societies, this means that the crisis will continue, and will intensify more, and the dark future will be waiting for Iraq, and perhaps the whole region.

Hence the importance of the international position and the US in particular, as it is the most influential in Iraq. What is required is intervention, preventing the Iranian regime and its militias from killing activists threatening demonstrators and sit-ins, betting on factors of time, containment, ripping up rows, and stirring sectarian and regional tendencies.
Washington must do everything in its power to compel Tehran, at least, to reduce the pace and scope of its operations, choose less profitable targets, and resort to less effective means to carry out its attacks. This approach may reduce the costs that Tehran may impose and the possibility of escalation as well, and for that to happen, the administration of President Donald Trump should avoid statements and steps that undermine deterrence, better align the goals, ways and means of the US strategy, and mislead Tehran more about cost-benefit calculations, demonstrate a greater degree of acceptance by the United States of the dangers, and make threats from multiple directions to Tehran, in order to have to permanently give priority to its responses. When dealing with difficult actors such as Iran, Washington must at times be prepared to escalate the situation in order to stop this escalation and ultimately calm the situation, in the pursuit of the goal of resolving the crisis in a non-violent manner.

The bottom line : Iraqis have become in dire need to forget their differences, and to unite now with one national alignment, and towards one goal, to restore a dear homeland slaughtered by brothers, agents, fools and mullahs, and all the corrupt, emergency parasites, rogue and mercenaries who have corrupted Iraq, and their tyranny has reached to kill Iraqis and kidnap women in Streets. Let all of Iraq be a single bloc together against this oppressive ruling junta, and all those who support it falsely and with falsehood.

The Iraqi national state, with all of its sons, and for all its sons, the state that takes privacy into consideration, adopts the political and administrative system that is consistent with the nature and needs of Iraqi society, and takes into consideration the past concerns and experiences, is the way out. As for being strong by outside support, it will only lead to more separation between the Iraqis, and exacerbate the problems to the extent that all harmful possibilities are expected.

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

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What is waiting Iraq after refusing pressure and preferring to resign?

Iraqi President Barham Salih announced his readiness to put his resignation in front of parliament for his reservations on the nomination of the current governor of Basra, Asaad Al-Eidani, for the position of Prime Minister. Salih said in an official statement addressed to Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi that he was adhering to the articles of the constitution in appointing the largest number of parliamentary bloc candidates.

He pointed out that in light of the requirements imposed by the protest movement, it is imperative to consider the supreme national interest before personal and political considerations. He added that he could not assign Al-Eidani to head and form the next government, taking into account the responsibility of the President of the Republic towards his people as he put it. This position of the President of the Republic can be read from several angles:
The first: the persistence of conflicting visions between Barham Salih, the President of the Republic of Iraq, and the parliamentary bloc that pushes for the nomination of a certain personality for the position of Prime Minister, a figure rejected by the Iraqi people. And here is the president who is the patron in response to the parish’s voice.

Second: The threat of resignation or the threat of it by Barham Salih to accept the assignment of Asaad Al-Eidani, this indicates that the President of the Republic built this political position, based on a deep understanding of what is happening from the mass protest movement in Iraq, the president with this refusal biased to the demands of the Iraqi people, which is National position par excellence, and this position will be recorded in history for Barham Salih, President of the Republic of Iraq, who refused to listen to Iran regarding the process of choosing the Prime Minister.

Third: That Iran and its allies’ insistence from the political, security, and parliamentarian community in Iraq to nominate a political figure rejected by the Iraqi people means either that Iran and its allies in Iraq completely ignore the demands of the Iraqi people, or that they also completely deny the overwhelming protest scene that Iraq has witnessed since Last October, it was because Iran and its allies ruled Iraq. They are seeking to get rid of the dark tunnel that Iraq entered it and did not leave it until now. The question that arises in this context: Will Iran and its allies continue to stand in their “right” to choose the personality of the Prime Minister, or will the internal, regional and international circumstances push it to retreat from that?

It is not easy for the Iranian political system to give up its influence and impact that it built in Iraq in the post-2003 period. The matter is very difficult based on the material data in Iraq, but we say if pressures are imposed on it that force it to back away from it, without preserving its interests in Iraq, they may take it through its allies to a catastrophic scene – no one , who is keen for the interests of Iraq and his people , wants it because Iran is aware of any loss of its position in Iraq that may open the way for many geopolitical losses in the Arab Mashreq, will Iran accept this, or will it go to brinkmanship in Iraq?

In sum, that the political system in Iran in order not to lose Iraq, may resort to actions no less ugly than the actions of Hulagu, but the Iranian political, military and security decision-maker must realize that all the invaders of Iraq have ceased to exist and Iraq remains lofty , and how does it not rise ?! It is the origin of the authentic human civilization. Did the sons of this civilization from its Arabs and Kurds fail to rule themselves without waiting orders from Tehran !!

Iraqi Studies Unit

Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

Iraq … a new chapter in the proxy war between Washington and Tehran.

The US Department of Defense announced that F-15 fighters targeted sites belonging to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigade, three of them in Iraq and two in Syria, in response to the Hezbolla’s missile attacks against a US military base in Kirkuk that killed an another site and wounded American and Iraqi soldiers. For its part, the Hezbollah confirmed the killing of 25 of its fighters and the wounding of others in this attack, vowing to “battle with America open to all possibilities.”
It is well known that these brigades are part of the “popular crowd” factions, which consist of factions openly loyal to Iran and through direct military, security and logistical coordination with the “Quds Force” led by Qasim Soleimani. However, the “crowd” was officially annexed to the Iraqi army with the aim of confronting the terrorist organization ISIS in the aftermath of the fall of Mosul, and the Iraqi Ministry of Defense allowed the expansion of its factions deep into Syrian territory, whether within the framework of fighting it or supporting the Syrian regime militarily.

For his part, the US Secretary of Defense, Mark Esber, announced that the strikes that targeted Hezbollah facilities in Iraq and Syria, on Sunday evening, were successful, pointing out that he does not rule out any other steps “if necessary.” Esper see, during a press conference hours after Announcing the strikes, “The United States has taken offensive measures against an Iranian-sponsored group.” “We will take further measures if necessary to defend oneself and deter the militias or Iran from committing hostile acts,” Mark Esber told reporters, quoted by al-Hurrah channel.

For its part, the Iraqi government announced that the American air strikes pushed it to “review the relationship” with the United States. “The American forces relied on their own conclusions and their political priorities, not the priorities as viewed by the government and people of Iraq,” a statement of the Iraqi National Security Ministerial Council, which held an emergency meeting to study the implications of the aircraft attack. It added that “the protection of Iraq, its camps, the forces present in it and the representations are the exclusive responsibility of the Iraqi security forces.” It continued, “This sinful attack which violates the goals and principles for which the international coalition is formed, pushing Iraq to review the relationship and security and political and legal work contexts in a manner that preserves the sovereignty and security of the country, protecting the lives of its people and promoting common interests.”

Washington is currently working to tighten pressure on Tehran and besiege the Iranian strategy relentlessly by tightening the screws on its armed arms in the region. For his part, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed that his country would not “accept the Islamic Republic of Iran to take actions that endanger American women and men.”

In the first reaction by the United States to the supporters of the Iraqi “Hezbollah Brigades” storming the headquarters of the Washington embassy in Baghdad today, Tuesday, US President Donald Trump called on the Iraqi authorities to use their forces to protect the embassy, accusing Iran of being behind what is going on.

The American president wrote, on his account on Twitter, that “Iran killed an American collaborator, and caused injuries to others.” We have responded vigorously to that, and we will always do so,”referring to the US raids that targeted the militia in response to an attack in which an American collaborator was killed in Iraq. Trump continued in his tweet “Now Iran is preparing an attack on the American embassy in Iraq. They will bear the full consequences of that. Moreover, we expect Iraq to use all of its forces to protect the embassy, and we have told them. ”

Accordingly, the question revolves around the various possible possibilities in Iraq according to the rule of action and reaction :
-The first possibility revolves around the continuation of attacks and counterattacks, but to a limited extent, without turning it into a full-scale US-Iranian war.
-The second possibility revolves around a phased political agreement of the American administration through the Iraqi government with Iran to calm things down and neutralize the country.
-The third possibility is based on the escalation of clashes to the extent that Washington will carry out in the coming months a wide operation to eradicate the Iranian military force in Iraq.

The three scenarios are connected with a time limit represented in the first nine months of 2020 until reaching the presidential elections. There are two directions, either that Trump be re-elected and thus have certain scenarios, or a Democratic president will be elected, and thus the stage of returning to the nuclear agreement begins.

The most obvious possibility is the continuation of confrontations because the Iranian leadership wants to use these clashes for more than one reason, the most important of which is diverting attention to a clash between the Americans and pro-militia militias, which weakens the interest in the protests in Iraq, especially in the Shiite areas. This factor may be the most important for them, and it reminds us of what Hizbullah did after the Cedar Revolution in 2005 when it triggered a war with Israel that weakened the revolution. So are the Iranians planning confrontations with the Americans with the aim of weakening the Iraqi revolution? This is more than possible.

Another reason for the Iranian escalation against the American bases is to weaken Washington’s resolve in the region and reduce its capabilities until the elections, and the two reasons are likely to be concomitant (weakening the Iraqi revolution and weakening the Americans). With regard to the Trump administration, we have noted a determination that the American image in the Middle East in general should not be weakened and in Iraq in particular, the National Security Council and the Ministry of Defense stress the need for the American field situation to be decisive, so both sides have a determination to confront and not retreat.

And the Iraqi airspace is practically in the hands of Washington, but the land of confrontation, if it happened, is more complicated than expected. If the Americans decide their affairs and stand in their areas of existence, it is expected that field uprisings will start in Anbar and Kurdistan, where the majority in these areas support the United States at the expense of Tehran, and everyone knows wide youth sectors in the Shiite regions are already revolting against the Iranian presence.

It can be said, according to the prevalence of the possibility of confrontation, that the “silent” consensus has ended between the “crowd” and the pro-Iranian factions in general, on the one hand, and approximately 5,000 American soldiers who returned to Iraq in 2014 to confront the terrorist group of ISIS on the other hand. Therefore, the repeated defeats that the organization suffered later ensured the recharge of tension between the two parties, especially after the withdrawal of the United States from the West’s nuclear agreement with Iran, and the exacerbation of what is known as the “proxy war” that Iran is waging through its affiliated organizations in Iraq, or the United States is fighting it across the its agents in the area.

In this sense, the recent military developments herald the entry of Iraq into new and very dangerous chapters of the proxy war between Washington and Tehran.

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

After the assassination of Soleimani … Will Tehran continue to change the rules of engagement with Washington?

The assassination of General Qasem Soleimani by an American military operation in Iraq can be considered a major climax in the “barometer” of the complicated relations between the United States of America and Iran, and it may mark the end of the phenomenon that started with the invasion of Iraq by the American forces in 2003, in which the two sides contributed to building the confrontation against common enemies, starting with Saddam Hussein’s regime, which Iran considered its existential opponent, and went through the Iraqi resistance to the occupation (which the Sunnis formed its social incubator), ending with the struggle with the Al-Qaeda organization and its successor, ISIS.
The killing of General Qasem Soleimani with an American strike, this morning, Friday, has a thunderous effect in Washington not in terms of its horror, but rather in terms of fear and fright from its serious consequences of his assassination.

And what increase the feeling of the danger of this qualitative escalation and its repercussions that the American administration was quick to claim responsibility for his death, as if it had declared war by that, or at least opened the confrontation with Tehran to its extent, including the possibility of extensive clashes with it, even if it remained without invasion and invasion and attack .
The killing of Soleimani in Iraq signals a new stage of the US-Iranian conflict. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has defied US President Donald Trump that he will do nothing in response to the attack on the US embassy in Iraq, but the betting on the weakness of the Americans has entered the region today in new equations ending the rules of engagement and sharing of influence in the conflict areas between the two parties.

The ball is now in Khamenei’s court to determine the timing, size and location of the retaliation strike, especially as Tehran does not want to give the impression that it is weak or in a defensive position. America has changed the rules of the game in Iraq, and Iran has shifted from its preference for proxy wars to direct targeting of its military and political arm in the region. The US military possesses the air superiority of deterrence, while the Iranian regime has a list of American targets in the region that can be hit if it chooses to escalate. America has abandoned its defensive posture and informed those concerned that its abandonment of the Gulf and Kurdish allies does not mean that its influence is declining in the region.

With the elimination of Soleimani, a hair was cut between Washington and Tehran, as the Iranian regime will read Soleimani’s removal from the scene as a target for its presence, as the man is a basic pillar in the regime.
The Americans know that Soleimani ranks No. 2 in government, and it is known that previous administrations (Bush and Obama) have abandoned the option of assassinating him on more than one occasion, “in order not to blow up bridges with Tehran and move massive reactions against it that it doesn’t need.”

Amid this unprecedented escalation, questions remain open and surrounded by a lot of ambiguity, the first of which revolves around whether the administration has taken a step with this weight without preparing to deal with its retaliation, as it did in bombing the bases of the Iraqi Hezbollah, without anticipating the consequences represented by storming the embassy, and the second question: What is the purpose of publicly adopting the killing of Soleimani? Does the administration consider the declaration a deterrent factor, or has it deliberately publicized to ensure the escalation continues and deepens the confrontation? Did it decide to proceed with the option of toppling the Iranian regime?

No less important than the question regarding the effects of this operation on US-Iraqi relations, as Baghdad, which found itself yesterday between the tambourine and the nail in the embassy operation, will be in more difficult position to secure a balance from the two sworn partners in the Iraqi arena? Another more serious question related to the fate of the Iranian nuclear file, which is expected to return to before the 2015 agreement? All these questions are waiting for answers in a phase where the situation gets out of control .
The assassination of Soleimani , in this great historical context of major events and detours in the course of relations between Iran and the United States, heralds major developments in the confrontation between them, and perhaps an unprecedented escalation, but the large scale of the strike could also push Tehran to review its accounts and rearrange its priorities.

Iran’s large stretches in the Arab region and the world make its possible response difficult to speculate, but it will most likely hesitate to call on the Lebanese “Hezbollah” to respond, especially after losing much of its political influence in the wake of the ongoing Lebanese uprising, and a response in the waters of the Arabian Gulf may call for a counter-response transports the confrontation into its territory, and it is therefore most likely that it will use its large reservoir of Iraqi militias. Thus, the Iraqis will bear, once again, the consequences of a battle that harms them, and may contribute to aborting the existing popular revolution.

Iranian Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies

[Laid Back]

Baghdad… a theater of conflict between Washington and Tehran!

It is more like a game of cat and mouse … these conflicts are overt at one time, and covert at other times, between Washington and Tehran … They hide or fade in one period, and unfold clearly in other periods … Perhaps its first beginnings manifested since the year of 1979… The year in which the mullahs sat on the throne of Iran, after their revolution against the Shah Pahlavi regime…

There are many stations and crises that have taken place in this conflict, and most importantly are the positions drawn up by this conflict in more than forty years.

However, its first indisputable spark was the storming of the American embassy in Tehran about forty years ago, and the events and crises that accompanied it caused the conflict between Tehran and Washington to very high levels, in its gravity, dimensions, and nature, and thus its dangerous consequences that affected not the region only, but the entire world … and the main argument on both sides is to defend the higher interests of each of them.

But what is even stranger than that began in the year of 2003 , the year in which Washington’s forces invaded Iraq – and until today, is the transformation of the tracks of this conflict on the one hand, and changing its tools, strategies, events and results, and the theaters on which its events take place on the other hand.

These transformations, according to many followers, are new and dangerous complications at the same time, which gave the American-Iranian conflict new features and directions, just as it gave it the opportunity to join new parties, and expanded its circles regionally and internationally, which reflected negatively on many countries and groups on the one hand, and allowed the emergence of groups, currents and parties, which further aggravated the situation in those countries on the other hand.

There are those who see that the second chapter of the play of this long, complicated and bloody conflict, which recently exposed its events on the Iraq stage, and resulted in Washington bombing a camp for the popular crowd in Anbar, followed by a direct response represented by storming the Washington embassy in Baghdad, ending the scene in this theater chapter – according to what was drawn and directed by American scenarist and portrayed by the Iranian director – by an American bombing of a motorcade in the vicinity of Baghdad Airport, killing the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Major General Qasem Soleimani, and the deputy commander of the Iraqi Popular Crowd Forces, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, and others, it is a living proof of what we mentioned in advance .

And before the two conflicting parties move to the events of the third chapter of the American-Iranian conflict, we can predict some features of its events and crises, through the Iraqi, Arab and international reactions, as well as the statements of the two conflicting parties.

Iraq ….. The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee vowed revenge for its leader, al-Muhandis , while President Barham Salih called for a voice of wisdom, restraint and the supreme national interest, in turn, the Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, called to hold an extraordinary session of parliament after the killing of al-Muhandis and Suleimani, considering the incident violated the sovereignty of Iraq, and the reaction of the Iraqi parliament speaker, Muhammad al-Halbousi, was not far from his predecessors, when he warned of the repercussions of this process, calling on everyone to show restraint, while the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, directed the Mahdi Army and the brigade of promised day (Liwa al-Yawm al-Mawud) to be fully prepared to protect for Iraq, as for the Al-Nujaba Movement, it issued a statement pledging to respond to the American attack and translate the coming battle into a revolution. The Dawa Party’s position was not different from the previous one, when it condemned the operation and described it as foolishness, calling on the Iraqi government to reconsider its relationship with Washington, at a time when the religious authority (Marja) described the incident by ” arrogant aggression” , and considered it a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty, and a violation of international conventions, in light of the loud voices calling for legislation to end the American presence in Iraq as quickly as possible.

Iran… The Supreme National Security Council of Iran called for an emergency meeting to discuss the American raid that targeted Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, and the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, vowed to the United States of America a harsh response. For his part, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani confirmed that Tehran’s revenge against the operation that targeted Qassem Soleimani, a leader of al-Qods Force, will include the United States of America, while the head of the Iranian Shura Council, Ali Larijani, has threatened to take revenge for Sulaimani . For his part, after losing his leader, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman, Ramadan Sharif, threatened to turn the current joy of the Americans into a consolation for them.

In Arab terms, the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah , Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the killing of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis and Qasim Soleimani, and called “the resistance” for revenge, while Hamas mourned the killing of Soleimani and the al-Muhandis and those with them, and the Houthis in Yemen pledged to revenge on the Americans, and the Lebanese President condemned this act .

America …. US President Donald Trump said that Soleimani killed and wounded thousands of Americans over a long period of time, and the Pentagon stated that the US military killed Soleimani under the direction of Trump to protect Americans abroad, and the reaction of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was identical to those who preceded him, when he said, that the news of the killing of the Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani raised joy and happiness in the Iraqi street, calling, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the citizens of his country to leave Iraq immediately, and he said that Washington wants the world to know that an imminent attack was preparing by Soleimani, and every possible information will be available in this regard , and he stressed that his country will continue to deter and respond to Iran when necessary.

As for the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, it came differently when she described the assassination of the leader of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, that it would raise the threat of escalation in the region. So was the position of the candidate for the US elections this year, Joe Biden, when he said that President Donald Trump threw a dynamic finger in a powder keg, as for the Republican Senator, Lindsey Graham, he supported and blessed Trump’s move, and the opinion was disputed by Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who warned of the repercussions of the process of killing the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Qassem Soleimani, on regional conditions.

Here, the positions differ between supporters and opponents, and between blessing and warning, and it becomes more clear by returning to American ideological references. While Republicans bless this step, Democrats or some of them warn of its consequences.

Globally, the global reactions to the killing of Soleimani and al-Muhandis and those with them do not differ, except with the different nature of international relations itself , as we find Western positions in general blessed this step, while we find the position of the Russian-Turkish-Chinese alliance, criticizing this step and considers it a wick that will ignite a stronger crisis.

Here it is worth noting the very blessed position of Israel on this operation , as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut his visit to Greece, praised the assassination of Soleimani, and raised the security alert in anticipation of Iranian retaliatory operations, and Netanyahu said that Soleimani bore responsibility for killing Americans and many innocent people, and that he planned to implement other offensive actions, adding that just as Israel has the right to defend itself, the United States also has the right to defend itself.

Another position worth noting is the position of the Arab Gulf states in general, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular, as there is no doubt that most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council welcomed the killing of Soleimani and al-Muhandis and those with them, and considered it an American step that deserves appreciation and praise, whether through official statements or, by implicit reactions, which can be read through the media of these countries addressing the issue.

More important than the attitudes of the Gulf states on this issue, and their reactions, is the threat to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular, and its interests in the region, as many observers see that Iran, with its direct entity, or through its arms in the Arab region, will try to avenge America by striking its interests and its allies in the region, especially since the geography of the place, between America and Iran on the one hand, and the difference in power and capabilities on the other hand, will make the allies of the United States of America, headed by Saudi Arabia, the first and most important goals that Iran and its arms in the region will seek to avenge against, especially since the Houthis expressly vowed to revenge for Soleimani, which brings to mind the incident of the bombing of the Saudi Aramco facilities, which despite the Houthis ’claim of responsibility, but the fingers of accusation were and are still referring to Iran in planning and carrying out that operation, and therefore, the threats of Iran and its allies to avenge for the leader of the Revolutionary Guards and his comrades will put the Gulf states in general, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Emirates and Bahrain in particular, in the danger circle .

Not only that, but the goals that Tehran may enter into its revenge list may affect the American bases located within the area covered by the Iranian ballistic arsenal, which are located in most of the Gulf countries, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other land and sea areas.

According to the latest statistics, America has large numbers of soldiers in its bases scattered in Asia, who reach nearly forty thousand soldiers, distributed among: Afghanistan (12,000), Qatar (10,000), Iraq (5000), Bahrain (4000) soldiers, Saudi Arabia (3000) soldiers, Kuwait (1800) soldiers, Turkey (1700) soldiers, Syria (1000) soldiers, Egypt (300) soldiers, in addition to Washington today sending about (3000) additional soldiers to the Middle East as a precautionary measure, which indicates two extremely important issues, the first is the gravity of the military situation in the region, in which Washington takes all precautionary measures to protect its interests in it, and the second, the multiplicity of options available to Tehran and its arms in choosing direct American military targets, to deliver painful strikes in revenge for the killing of Soleimani and those with him.

The question that arises in this case, will Tehran consider revenge for Soleimani from Washington, by targeting the latter’s bases, interests, or allies in the region, whether in Iraq, the Arab Gulf, or Afghanistan?
Although the satisfactory answer to this question is owned only by Tehran, the logic discovers that Tehran will not dare to take this step, because it is certain that the American response will be a deterrent and decisive, as Washington places under its advanced weapons vital Iranian strategic goals, and it has the ability and potential to cripple Iran’s military ability completely within hours only, and this gives a feeling that Iran is in a critical and unenviable position, because it has two options, the best of them is bitter, either to respond or not to respond to the killing of its Revolutionary Guards Commander, Qassem Soleimani, and if it chooses to respond and take revenge, it realizes that the American response will be tough and decisive and quickly, and destroy its military arsenal, and will eliminate its economy already crumbling, and will end its domestic policies, and erased its presence in the region and at the blink of an eye, but if it chose silence not to respond, then Tehran had accepted to continue and is aware that its pride had been insulted and humiliated.

Which options will Iran choose? This is what will become clear after the funeral of Qassem Soleimani on Sunday in “Tehran”.

Dr. Abdullah Al-Sheikh
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies