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Benefits of a LOP


rockfl9
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22 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Hey SD

 

Sam I Am....is a one time believer under one name, then changed his name when he became a LOPster (chapter one in LOPsters for dummies handbook - change name to become more believable, instead of disgruntled ). He opened up a website trashin GURUS, telling personal info about them. Which in itself is not a bad thing if it proved they were crooks. He now provides info & opinions....a lot like the GURUS he dispises (chapter two in LOPsters for dummies handbook - provide own opinons to lure the gullible ). He also alot like other LOPsters is NOW a Monday morning foreign currency expert (chapter three in LOPsters for dummies handbook- create street cred by making people think your more than you are ).

 

Hope all is well with you

Truer and funnier words were never spoken caz1104. I gave you a laughing face. lopsters for dummies handbook, har, har, har. I will bet someone has gone to their safe spot to pets an animals, and have a cleansing cry. 

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23 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Thanks SD & Kev, IMO , there is a concerted effort by some to interject their beliefs as gospel ( LOPsters/Gurus). Opinions are cool if presented as such. Again just my opinion

Not a Belief.  A LOP is a proven possibility .  The revered Dr. Shabibi was making plans for one before he was removed for other reasons.

It does require a process and to be done correctly as he planned takes time and approval of the GOI/MOF.

Dinarians  dont like LOPs  because they are No gain events. 

Dealers also dont like them because it will put them out of business. Right CAZ ?

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1 hour ago, rockfl9 said:

Not a Belief.  A LOP is a proven possibility .  The revered Dr. Shabibi was making plans for one before he was removed for other reasons.

It does require a process and to be done correctly as he planned takes time and approval of the GOI/MOF.

Dinarians  dont like LOPs  because they are No gain events. 

Dealers also dont like them because it will put them out of business. Right CAZ ?

True a LOP is a "possibility" as are others. And DUH Dinarians would surely be disappointed in a LOP....u amaze me with ur ability to state the obvious...capt.

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I don't think anyone disputes that a redenomination is possible.  It's the "others" that are worthy of debate.

 

Could Iraq move to float their currency and if so could it rise by many times its current rate?  Its possible in theory but I think one can make an excellent case that it is extremely unlikely that they would do so and even if they did it is extremely that it would rise by many times its present value.   So gaining a huge increase in the way seems at least extremely unlikely (for all practical purposes impossible in my view).

 

What most folks on this site talk about is the "RV".  That is where the CBI will set a rate for the IQD many times (some say 1000x) its present value. So the key question is: is an RV possible?   The answer to that I think is clearly "no".  The CBI can only offer a rate they can support and that is limited (with significant wiggle room) by the ratio of their assets (foreign reserves including gold) to their liabilities (clearly M0, likely most of M1 especially for Iraq they are not that different).    That puts the rate about where it is now.   There is no great expertise in foreign currency required here, just knowing what "the rate" is, i.e. the rate the CBI will offer, and a little arithmetic.

 

Could iraq do nothing and simply let the rate slowly tick up or down as is usually for a pegged currency?  Certainly.  Personally this is the most likely.  But again that is not an interesting question. The only one of interest is "is an RV possible?".  No.

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22 hours ago, caz1104 said:

True a LOP is a "possibility" as are others. And DUH Dinarians would surely be disappointed in a LOP....u amaze me with ur ability to state the obvious...capt.

"Possibilities" are endless, the Gurus can dream up new ones every day .  "Probability" is where the rubber meets the road . i.e. how likely will an event happen ?.   History is the best measure. 

 

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46 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

"Possibilities" are endless, the Gurus can dream up new ones every day .  "Probability" is where the rubber meets the road . i.e. how likely will an event happen ?.   History is the best measure. 

 

For a "possibility" to be real, it must have a probability that is > 0.  Indeed what people are interested in is the likelihood or probability of an event.  But before trying to determine that, it's often easier to determine if the event in question is possible at all.   Technically, science (using bayesian reasoning) can not rule anything out completely but only given them extremely low probabilities.  That is due to the possibility that we're in the matrix or brains in jars as they say.  But for any practically application I think we can call such things impossible.

 

e.g. someone might assert that it's a possibility that Iraq could discover $80T USD worth of gold. But using the current price and ignoring how low the price of gold would fall given such a huge increase in supply, that would be roughly 1,000 times the amount of gold currently above ground.  I think we can safely say that Iraq discovering 1,000 times the amount of gold ever mined anywhere on earth, is not possible given our knowledge of this planet (e.g. it would impact the gravity map which we know with astonishing accuracy at present).

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On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 2:15 PM, rockfl9 said:

"Possibilities" are endless, the Gurus can dream up new ones every day .  "Probability" is where the rubber meets the road . i.e. how likely will an event happen ?.   History is the best measure. 

 

Here's the problem...1st you state a LOP is a "possibility" then you go straight to "Probability" - smh. And as everyone knows if it happened the past it HAS to happen in the future - smh. LOPsters...their egos are right up there with GURUS. Quite "possibly" they are kissin cousins

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On 3/25/2019 at 9:51 PM, caz1104 said:

Here's the problem...1st you state a LOP is a "possibility" then you go straight to "Probability" - smh. And as everyone knows if it happened the past it HAS to happen in the future - smh. LOPsters...their egos are right up there with GURUS. Quite "possibly" they are kissin cousins

 

Hahhaha. They probably are...

😂

Hi Caz.....😊

 

Hi Rock....how are u doing? U r still down here.....waiting.....for nothing to happen? I am impress.

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2 hours ago, zul said:

 

Hahhaha. They probably are...

😂

Hi Caz.....😊

 

Hi Rock....how are u doing? U r still down here.....waiting.....for nothing to happen? I am impress.

Zul!!!

 

Been awhile....and yes after 10 years still waiting for mr nothing........stay cool and don't be a stranger

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21 hours ago, zul said:

 

Hahhaha. They probably are...

😂

Hi Caz.....😊

 

Hi Rock....how are u doing? U r still down here.....waiting.....for nothing to happen? I am impress.

Hi Zul..   Been a while for you ... Yeah I am still here,  Every day Nuthin happens i feel the winner. Beats anything the Guru's come up with,.

But while you are here maybe you can answer the question " Where will the dollars come from???   Assuming a 10 cert RV and the Dinarians sitting on at least 100 Bn IQD ,  $10 Bn Usd would be needed at cash-in !  Given that at that time ALL USD belongs to someone Where would it come from?  

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3 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

 Assuming a 10 cert RV and the Dinarians sitting on at least 100 Bn IQD ,  $10 Bn Usd would be needed at cash-in !  Given that at that time ALL USD belongs to someone Where would it come from?  

I hope there is NOT 100B IQD owned by Dnarians (people have put $100M USD into this?), but even if that is true it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the 70 or 80 Trillion IQD in Iraq.   That is what makes the RV impossible.  With their new wealth Iraqis will want to buy lots of imported stuff but the supply of dollars from oil exports does not go up so the CBI will run out of dollars in a flash. The cost of items produced in Iraq will of course also skyrocket due to increased demand, that does not put pressure on the CBI's reserves.

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On 3/29/2019 at 2:08 AM, rockfl9 said:

Hi Zul..   Been a while for you ... Yeah I am still here,  Every day Nuthin happens i feel the winner. Beats anything the Guru's come up with,.

But while you are here maybe you can answer the question " Where will the dollars come from???   Assuming a 10 cert RV and the Dinarians sitting on at least 100 Bn IQD ,  $10 Bn Usd would be needed at cash-in !  Given that at that time ALL USD belongs to someone Where would it come from?  

 

The daily turnover for forex market reached 4 trillion dollars on April 2010.  Now in 2019, I wld think, it is safe to say the daily turnover is around 6 trillion dollar (on the conservative side of course).

85% of those are in USD, meaning the amount of dollar trading is about 5 trillion dollars, DAILY.

Now......tell me how is that possible, given the fact that ALL USD belong to someone, somewhere.

 

Actually Rock, we have been thru this a million times. It gets too old. U have formed ur opinion and so do I. 

Let that be.

 

U feeling like a winner....let's drink to that for now....

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, zul said:

 

The daily turnover for forex market reached 4 trillion dollars on April 2010.  Now in 2019, I wld think, it is safe to say the daily turnover is around 6 trillion dollar (on the conservative side of course).

85% of those are in USD, meaning the amount of dollar trading is about 5 trillion dollars, DAILY.

Now......tell me how is that possible, given the fact that ALL USD belong to someone, somewhere.

 

Actually Rock, we have been thru this a million times. It gets too old. U have formed ur opinion and so do I. 

Let that be.

 

U feeling like a winner....let's drink to that for now....

 

 

 

You may need to understand what those traded dollar amounts represent.

Let me give an example:

A car dealer Mr. D finds a lot of autos that an importer wants to get rid of All  or none  For 1M Euros with the money delivered to the exporter in Germany. 

Mr D calls his FX broker "Vinny " and says Vinny I need 1M euros in Frankfort ASAP.  Vinny looks it up and says D the market is $1.20,

D says " Do it"  That's a market order. Vin puts out a buy order for 1M Euors and L in London takes it . And agrees to put the Euros to the bank in Frankfort when the dollars get to L . Usually happens in less than the next business day .  The exporter gets paid and the importer releases the property to Mr. D.

NO physical currency was needed. But it will be reported as $1.2m dollars sold and 1M Euros bought. All represented by a lot of autos.   

99% of reported currency trades take place this way..  When central banks swap currency it WILL NOT show up on FOREX.

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9 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

NO physical currency was needed.

 

There....u just answered ur own questions. No physical USD needed for the RV, it will all be electronic. And whatever physical currency needed, it will be less than 3%. So there is really no question of where the 10 billion physical dollar is going to come from (or GBP, Yen, Euro ~ depending which country u r from)

 

It will be a normal, biz as usual, buy/sell between us (dinar holders) and the bank. 

 

The banks wld then sell their foreign currency to their respective central banks.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, zul said:

 

There....u just answered ur own questions. No physical USD needed for the RV, it will all be electronic. And whatever physical currency needed, it will be less than 3%. So there is really no question of where the 10 billion physical dollar is going to come from (or GBP, Yen, Euro ~ depending which country u r from)

 

It will be a normal, biz as usual, buy/sell between us (dinar holders) and the bank. 

 

The banks wld then sell their foreign currency to their respective central banks.

 

 

????  THE problem is that Dinarians DO have physical IQD.  HOW does it get to be electronic?????..  

The point I was trying to make was that for an international  market to exist in any currency there must be trade to create the demand. AND issuing countrys banks provide that exchange.  For the IQD the CBI or an Iraqi bank must offer that exchange , BUT under current Iraqi Law  Iraqi banks cannot exchange dollars for IQD except to Iraqi citizens (in country) or qualified Iraqi businesses.  Iraq  does not want the IQD to have any value outside of the country for political reasons and chooses to do all trade in other currencies.  Until this is changed NO other country bank will accept IQD because they would be stuck with it.

 

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On 3/28/2019 at 6:04 PM, EverCurious452 said:

I hope there is NOT 100B IQD owned by Dnarians (people have put $100M USD into this?), but even if that is true it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the 70 or 80 Trillion IQD in Iraq.   That is what makes the RV impossible.  With their new wealth Iraqis will want to buy lots of imported stuff but the supply of dollars from oil exports does not go up so the CBI will run out of dollars in a flash. The cost of items produced in Iraq will of course also skyrocket due to increased demand, that does not put pressure on the CBI's reserves.

Hard to estimate how much IQD exists in the USA let alone WW.  Although I would have expected the GOI to have cracked down on the smuggling of IQD by now the dealers still seem to be able to get a lot of uncirculated IQD.  !!!!!  It could be leaked out thru the CBI itself????

What good would it do for the country IF the CBI  RVd The IQD and the Peepl  still needed to use USD to import stuff?  The cost in USD would remain the same.

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54 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

What good would it do for the country IF the CBI  RVd The IQD and the Peepl  still needed to use USD to import stuff?  The cost in USD would remain the same.

Right, and of course importers in Iraq WILL still have to pay for things in USD or Euros and those prices will not change so post (a mythical) RV people in Iraq will appear to have 100x or 1000x more to spend but the dollars at the CBI will be unchanged and will be 100x or 1000x less than what would be needed to meet that import demand (which is why the RV is a myth in the first place).

 

As for electronic Vs physical currency, I think the whole issue is irrelevant.  The reason that electronic purchases and payments etc work is that they are the same as physical currency from a financial perspective (just much more efficient from a transaction perspective compared to shipping tons of physical cash around).

 

When Zul speaks of the massive flows in the Forex, I assume he is thinking that the CBI will float the IQD instead of RVing and that it will then greatly rise in value.  While floating the IQD is theoretically possible (unlike an RV) I think it's extremely unlikely that the CBI would do this.   The CBI's stated goal is rate stability (1st) and low inflation (2nd) and the low volume of exchanges and Iraq's single resource economy would bring about rate instability.  Even if that hurdle is surmounted it is also extremely unlikely that the value of the IQD (if exchangeable in international markets) would rise in value at all, and even more extremely unlikely that it would rise by the sort of RV levels folks talk about.   So the likelihood of all that is extremely * extremely * extremely unlikely.  i.e. aint hapening.

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Dinarians like to think that the IQD doesnt need a lop because it did not suffer inflation ... The Sadam dinar WAS inflated !  When the CPA issued the IQD  they did not see a way to exchange at a rate less than one to one which would have left some Iraqi's with notes that could not be exchanged unless they had coins. That would wave taken more time and the CPAs  plan was to get the Sadam notes off the street ASAP. 

The one to one rate carried the inflation over to the new currency.

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20 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

Dinarians like to think that the IQD doesnt need a lop because it did not suffer inflation ... The Sadam dinar WAS inflated !  When the CPA issued the IQD  they did not see a way to exchange at a rate less than one to one which would have left some Iraqi's with notes that could not be exchanged unless they had coins. That would wave taken more time and the CPAs  plan was to get the Sadam notes off the street ASAP. 

The one to one rate carried the inflation over to the new currency.

Indeed.  At something around 0.3 to 0.5 IQD per 1 USD in the late 80's to 3,000 to 4,000 IQD per 1 USD in 2003, that's HYPERinflation.

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20 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

BUT under current Iraqi Law  Iraqi banks cannot exchange dollars for IQD

 

20 hours ago, rockfl9 said:

????  THE problem is that Dinarians DO have physical IQD.  HOW does it get to be electronic?????..  

The point I was trying to make was that for an international  market to exist in any currency there must be trade to create the demand. AND issuing countrys banks provide that exchange.  For the IQD the CBI or an Iraqi bank must offer that exchange , BUT under current Iraqi Law  Iraqi banks cannot exchange dollars for IQD except to Iraqi citizens (in country) or qualified Iraqi businesses.  Iraq  does not want the IQD to have any value outside of the country for political reasons and chooses to do all trade in other currencies.  Until this is changed NO other country bank will accept IQD because they would be stuck with it.

 

 

"Until this is changed NO other country bank will accept IQD"

 

True. Currently Iraq is under IMF Article 14, and that is why IQD is not a convertible currency.... But article 14 is just a transitional arrangement and not meant to be a permanent feature.

Eventually Iraq will have to get out and embrace IMF article 8. But to do that, they will not only have to notify IMF of their intention but they also have to change their monetary policy as well.

And just last week or so, Fin.Com told us that they will enact a new law to change their monetary and fiscal policy with the aim to increase the value of dinar (exchange rate). The point is: they are going to change.

 

As to your claim that " Iraq  does not want the IQD to have any value outside of the country", I don't really know how to respond to this, to cry or to laugh?

Btw, where did u get this idea from? 

 

One more thing....u said " under current Iraqi Law  Iraqi banks cannot exchange dollars for IQD except to Iraqi citizen"  ~ okayyy, but what has that got to do with us, dinar holders outside of Iraq?

 

Who is going to change their IQD for dollars or euros or yen with Iraqi banks (when the value of IQD increases)?. 

 

Rock, these are all basic questions that have been debated before. Questions like

~ where is the dollar coming from during cash-in?  Are u serious? There won't be any physical dollars or whatever other currencies, you will most likely receive electronic money.

 

~ No banks outside Iraq will accept IQD.

Not if they are under IMF article 8. That's what exchange rate is all about in the first place.

 

Iraq will never RV.

Maybe, but they are planning to add value to their currency, to increase the value of IQD.

 

So i'm not sure why u r still asking these questions when u can actually find those answers somewhere in this forum.

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, zul said:

And just last week or so, Fin.Com told us that they will enact a new law to change their monetary and fiscal policy with the aim to increase the value of dinar (exchange rate)

I don't know just what article you are referring to, but usually such are connected with keeping a lid on inflation and as such involve rate changes in the range of fractions of one percent over periods like a year.  If you have been in this for say 10 years, you're going to need something on the order of 25% just to match inflation and the spread you did pay / will pay on each end.  If you want to match the DOW over that time you're going to need more like 80% (again including the spread).  Do you reallly think these rate the rate change articles are suggesting that level of change?  I'd say that would be pretty wishful thinking.

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22 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

I don't know just what article you are referring to, but usually such are connected with keeping a lid on inflation and as such involve rate changes in the range of fractions of one percent over periods like a year.  If you have been in this for say 10 years, you're going to need something on the order of 25% just to match inflation and the spread you did pay / will pay on each end.  If you want to match the DOW over that time you're going to need more like 80% (again including the spread).  Do you reallly think these rate the rate change articles are suggesting that level of change?  I'd say that would be pretty wishful thinking.

 

Just so u know....for the past few years inflation rate in Iraq has always been below/within 2%. 

 

So this increase in the value of dinar that they are talking about is not to put a lid of inflation.

 

The article I was talking about ~ 

 

Parliamentary move to raise the price of the dinar and maintain the stability of inflation

(another title: Article:  "PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTEE IS DEVELOPING MECHANISMS TO CHANGE THE COUNTRY'S FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES IN COORDINATION WITH THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ"   )


Wednesday 20 March 2019

Baghdad / Omar Abdul Latif

 
 
The Parliamentary Finance Committee is moving in the current legislative session to develop mechanisms to change the monetary and monetary policies in the country, in coordination with the Central Bank of Iraq, aimed at raising the dinar exchange rate and maintaining the stability of inflation.

"The committee will move during the current legislative term towards changing the fiscal and monetary policy in the country in general," said member of the committee Abdul Hadi al-Saadawi, Coming ".

He added that "the Committee is keen to enact the law of financial administration as it gives a complete road map of the financial policy in the country in terms of management of money and cash in the state," pointing out that "the change will raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies while maintaining the stability of inflation In the country".
"The Commission is determined to make these changes during the next phase and not to follow the traditional methods are not appropriate at the moment."

 

Happy reading.

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3 hours ago, zul said:

 

Just so u know....for the past few years inflation rate in Iraq has always been below/within 2%. 

 

So this increase in the value of dinar that they are talking about is not to put a lid of inflation.

 

The article I was talking about ~ 

 

Parliamentary move to raise the price of the dinar and maintain the stability of inflation

(another title: Article:  "PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTEE IS DEVELOPING MECHANISMS TO CHANGE THE COUNTRY'S FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES IN COORDINATION WITH THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ"   )

You make my case for me.   I didn't say "put" a lid on inflation, I said "keeping" a lid on inflation.  i.e. preventing it from becoming a problem, just like the article says.  "maintain the stability of inflation".  That implies just ticking the rate up slightly to counter the slight down ticks that have occurred over the last year or so when oil prices were down.    That isn't going to e anywhere near what someone who has held this for 10 years would need just to match inflation let alone the DOW (and RV levels are behind dreamland).

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