IMF: debts of Arab countries more than 90% of its GDP

[George Hayduke]

By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Fourth Arab Fiscal Forum, Dubai

February 9, 2019

 

Good morning—Sabah Al-Khair! I am delighted to be back in Dubai, this city of tomorrow, where you—its economic leaders—are dedicated to realizing the vision of a better tomorrow.

 

This vision is predicated on prosperity that is shared by all, benefiting the poor and the middle class, citizens and immigrants alike; and opportunities that are open to all, including women. It is a vision of fairness over cronyism and partiality, and of trust that government policy is oriented toward the common good.

 

This is a big vision. But as Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum once said “The bigger your vision, the bigger your achievement will be…we cannot let fear keep us small. We have to be brave to be big."

 

As you know so well, fiscal policy plays a vital role in creating and nurturing this vision of sustainable and inclusive growth—especially as encapsulated in the Sustainable Development Goals. This is because we need fiscal space for spending on health, education, social protection, and public investment—all key priorities in this region.

 

This is why I wanted to come back to the Arab Fiscal Forum—my fourth time now. In past years, I talked in detail about fiscal policy—the spending and revenue measures needed to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. This year, I want to go one level deeper—into the foundations of fiscal policy and good fiscal management.

 

Because without a stable foundation, even the best policies can flounder. Without a stable foundation, fiscal policy will lack credibility. In this vein, I will address two key pillars of good fiscal management: (i) strong fiscal frameworks; and (ii) good governance and transparency.

 

Prelude: Global and regional context

Before I do this, let me say a few words about the broader economic context bearing on fiscal policy in the region. Unfortunately, the region has yet to fully recover from the global financial crisis and other big economic dislocations over the past decade. Among oil importers, growth has picked up, but it is still below pre-crisis levels. Fiscal deficits remain high, and public debt has risen rapidly—from 64 percent of GDP in 2008 to 85 percent of GDP a decade later. Public debt now exceeds 90 percent of GDP in nearly half of these countries.

 

The oil exporters have not fully recovered from the dramatic oil price shock of 2014. Modest growth continues, but the outlook is highly uncertain—reflecting in part the need for countries to shift rapidly toward renewable energy over the new few decades, in line with the Paris Agreement. With revenues down, fiscal deficits are only slowly declining—despite significant reforms on both the spending and revenue sides, including the introduction of VAT and excise taxes. This has led to a sharp increase in public debt—from 13 percent of GDP in 2013 to 33 percent in 2018.

 

At this juncture, the global expansion is weakening, and risks are rising. Just a few weeks ago, we released our revised forecasts. We now think that the global economy will grow by 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage points below what we expected in October. And risks are up, given escalating trade tensions and tightening financial conditions. Unsurprisingly, a weaker global environment has knock-on effects on the region through a variety of channels—trade, remittances, capital flows, commodity prices, and financing conditions.

 

The bottom line: the economic path ahead for the region is challenging. This makes the task of fiscal policy that much harder, which in turn makes it even more important to build strong foundations to anchor fiscal policy.

 

1. Fiscal Frameworks

The first building block of this foundation is a good fiscal framework. By this I mean the set of laws, institutional arrangements, and procedures needed to achieve a country’s fiscal policy objectives. Such a framework allows governments to map out budgets over the medium term in a way that reflects clear, consistent, and credible goals.

 

There is scope to improve fiscal frameworks in this region. Some of the weaknesses are short-termism and insufficient credibility.

 

On short-termism: given that inclusive and sustainable growth is an inherently medium-term goal, fiscal policy needs a medium-term orientation. Focusing on the immediate horizon makes it harder to implement critical but longer-term reforms in such areas as tackling high public wage bills, designing effective social protection systems, and getting rid of harmful fuel subsidies. Short-termism implies that fiscal policy amplifies rather than tames the waves of booms and busts—making it more difficult to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.

 

Turning to fiscal credibility: I am referring to such factors as large amounts of spending kept off-budget and poor risk management. Across the region, it is common for sovereign wealth funds to directly finance projects, bypassing the normal budget process. And state-owned enterprises in some countries have high levels of borrowing—again, outside of the budget. Addressing these fiscal risks would not only enhance budget credibility and transparency but would help keep a lid on corruption. Budgetary credibility also calls for better risk management, with a more comprehensive budget based on realistic forecasts.

 

The good news is that numerous countries are already strengthening their fiscal frameworks—many with IMF assistance. Just to give some examples:

• Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Sudan, Qatar, and Lebanon have all set up macro-fiscal units—a useful first step in strengthening the fiscal framework.
• Algeria has recently adopted a new budget law with a strong medium-term orientation, and Bahrain has introduced a fiscal program designed to achieve balance over the medium term.
• Mauritania, Morocco, Jordan, and Lebanon are making great progress with medium-term public investment planning and execution.
• Egypt now publishes a fiscal risk statement with its budget and produces an internal in-year budget risk assessment. The UAE too is rolling out a fiscal risk management project—with the IMF’s help—and will produce its first fiscal stress test this year.
•  

There is scope for further improvement. Perhaps the oil exporters could follow the example of other resource-rich countries such as Chile and Norway in using fiscal rules to protect key priorities such as social spending from commodity price volatility.

Strong fiscal frameworks have other important benefits. They form the basis for sound debt management. They also allow for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, so that the two arms of macroeconomic management work together, not at cross purposes.

 

2. Good Governance and Transparency

Let me now turn to the second pillar of good fiscal management—good governance and transparency. In this context, governance refers to the institutional frameworks and practices of the public sector. Strong institutions are crucial for legitimacy, for fostering a clearer understanding of policy objectives among citizens, enhancing their voice, and generating buy-in for fiscal policy.

 

On the other hand, as many of you have said, weak institutions imply a weak policy foundation that could crack and crumble—because there is inadequate legitimacy and public accountability. Even worse, these cracks could also let corruption creep in. And you know so well, this is social poison—it feeds discord, disengagement, and disillusionment, especially among the young. The word corruption, after all, comes from Latin root for rotting, breaking apart—disintegration. And the word in Arabic, fasad, also connotes this idea of rotting or coming undone.

 

Corruption is the great disruptor of fiscal policy. Without trust in the fairness of the tax system, it becomes harder to raise the revenue needed for critical spending on health, education, and social protection. And governments might be tempted to favor white elephant projects instead of investments in people and productive potential. Add this up, and we have a recipe for unsustainable fiscal policy combined with social discord.

 

This a global issue—relevant for large and small countries, advanced and low-income economies, and the public and private sectors. Given this, it is no surprise that IMF research found that weak governance and corruption are associated with significantly lower growth, investment, FDI, and tax revenues—and higher inequality and exclusion.

 

Specifically, we found that improving on an index of corruption and governance by moving from the bottom quarter to the mean is associated with an increase in the investment-to-GDP ratio of 1.5–2 percentage points and a bump up in annual GDP per capita growth by half a percentage point or more. [1] We will have more analysis in the upcoming Fiscal Monitor, which will be devoted to the topic of the fiscal costs of corruption and the role of fiscal institutions.

 

What is the solution to weak governance and corruption? In the fiscal domain, it calls for heightened fiscal transparency—shining a light on all aspects of the budget and the public accounts. This would provide a more accurate picture of the fiscal position and prospects, the long-term costs and benefits of any policy changes, and the potential fiscal risks that might throw them off course. This region has some room for improvement here.

 

We know that these kinds of reforms pay off. Take the case of Georgia, for example. Until 2003, it was seen as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. But after that, it reformed its institutions and cracked down on corruption. This, along with tax reform, led to immediate improvements. Tax revenues increased from 12 percent of GDP in 2003 to 25 percent of GDP in 2008, as taxpayers had greater faith in the fairness of the system.

 

I should note that the IMF has been stepping up its engagement in the area of governance and corruption. Last year, we put in place a new framework predicated on a more systematic, evenhanded, effective, and candid engagement on these issues with member countries. We will be reaching out to leaders in this region to discuss how we can work together to implement this framework.

 

With better governance, we can replace the “disintegration” of corruption with the “integration” of all into the productive economy. We can replace fasad with islah—reforms to set things right, to reconcile people with one another.

Conclusion

Let me wrap up. I have argued this morning that good fiscal policy requires good institutional foundations. And solid foundations in areas such as fiscal frameworks and governance give citizens confidence that fiscal policy serves the good of all, not just the wealthy or the well-connected.

 

Let me end with some wise words attributed to the great Ibn Khaldun, “He who finds a new path is a pathfinder, even if the trail has to be found again by others; and he who walks far ahead of his contemporaries is a leader.”

 

You are the pathfinders, the leaders, the visionaries. We hope that we can give useful guidance, but we look to you to find the right path to make this vision a reality.

Thank you—shukran!

 

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[1] More specifically, those gains are associated with moving from the 25^thpercentile to the 50^th percentile in an index on corruption and governance.

 

IMF Laying the foundations

 

[yota691]

IMF: debts of Arab countries more than 90% of its GDP

 

Director General of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde

Arab and international Economy News Baghdad The International Monetary Fund warned on Saturday that public debt has been rising rapidly in many Arab countries since the global financial crisis in 2008, due to the continued rise in the budget deficit. "Unfortunately, the region has not yet fully recovered from the global financial crisis and other major economic upheavals of the last decade," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said. "Among oil-importing countries, economic growth has improved, but still below pre-crisis levels." The public debt of Arab oil importing countries rose from 64% of GDP in 2008 to 85% in 2018. She noted that public debt in about half of these countries currently exceeds 90% of GDP. The public debt in oil-exporting countries, including the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), rose from 13 percent to 33 percent of GDP driven by the collapse of oil prices five years ago, she said. She stressed that the oil-exporting countries did not achieve a full recovery from the shock oil prices faced in 2014. "We continue to achieve modest growth, but the outlook is still uncertain," she said. Lagarde called on oil-exporting countries to use renewable energy in the coming decades in line with the Paris Convention on Climate Change, which provides for the reduction of emissions of the environment. Views 90   Date Added 02/10/2019

[yota691]

Analysis .. The global economy is going through a tragic situation

 

 11 February 2019 06:35 PM
Editing: Sally Ismail

Mubasher: January is usually a time to evaluate the developments of the previous year in order to predict what its new counterpart is hiding.

Unfortunately, though we are at a turning point for the better politically, the data released last month does not paint a promising picture of the outlook for the global economy in the short term, according to an analytical view published by Project Syndicate.

The tone was monitored earlier this month by the World Bank's World Economic Outlook .

The report paints a bleak picture that matches the sub-heading of "Cloudy Sky" and lowers economic growth forecasts for developed economies in 2020 to 1.6 %, down from 2.2 % in 2018 .

Moreover, last week the European Central Bank sounded the alarm about the Eurozone economy.

Europe is in a state of uncertainty ranging from the possibility of the informal bricast to the growing protectionism embodied in the US-China trade war.

What makes things worse is that Germany faces a slowdown in GDP growth. According to official figures, the economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of last year, while the industrial PMI fell to 49.9 points, its lowest level in four years.

Given Germany's role as the backbone of the Euro-Zone economy, the effects of its economic woes are likely to appear beyond its borders.

This is particularly problematic, as after more than a decade of fighting the crisis and the economic recession, advanced economies have exhausted their ammunition to cope with the slowdown.

With the ECB holding the key interest rate at zero, there is little scope for interest rate cuts, and the Bank of England has not risked a rate hike since August.

The US Federal Reserve also indicated that it is slowing down its pace of interest rate increases.

A new crisis would leave developed economies without new monetary instruments to deal with.

The future is somewhat brighter for emerging economies, although the dark clouds are looming there as well.

As the World Bank report asserts, emerging economies are under growing pressure from government debt, which has risen by about 20 percent on average GDP since 2013 with somewhat higher payments to private creditors seeking higher interest rates.

But Africa is on a brighter track, with the 2019 African Economic Outlook reporting that the continent has experienced several years of challenges as economic growth slows from 5 % per year between 2010 and 2014 to around 2 % in 2016 .

Last year, however, Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) rose to 3.5 percent and the site could exceed 4 percent next year, led by some of the world's fastest-growing countries such as Ethiopia and Rwanda, which have annual growth rates of more than 7 percent.

With major players such as Nigeria and South Africa lagging behind in their expected performance, Africa is not yet in a position to take advantage of the performance left by the faltering developed nations.

The situation in Asia is brighter. Although China has played a major role over the last 30 years, it is now clear that it is in the process of adjusting to a shift to higher wages and lower economic growth.

In 2018 , Bangladesh, India and Indonesia grew by 7.9% , 7.3 % and 5.2 %, respectively.

According to the World Bank, the pace of economic growth will exceed 7 % in South Asia and 6 % in Eastern Europe during 2020 .

But once again there are serious challenges to come, as there is a crisis of employment looming in India by the country's focus on the big players and its failure to turn economic growth into strong jobs, especially for its educated young people.

The analysis believes that monetary policy also plays a big role at this stage. With inflation still under control, the Reserve Bank of India may help stimulate the economy with a slight cut in interest rates.

In Indonesia, President Goku Widodo and the so-called "Jokwi" are facing growing criticism over the failure to meet the 7 percent economic growth target he sets when he takes office in 2014 .

In real, the goal Jokoa was always very ambitious for Indonesia, whose economy is witnessing a per capita income of more than 10 thousand dollars (according to the average coefficient of purchasing power).

The government still has important tasks to carry out. First of all, perhaps the central bank's response to the decline of the Indonesian rupiah through the implementation of 6 interest rate increases in the last three quarter quarters was exaggerated, although the currency reached its lowest level in 20 years against the US dollar in the last year.

Moreover, there is a need for better policy coordination across local governments that are competing to raise the minimum wage, undermining Indonesia's ability to attract low-cost industries from China.

Even if some emerging economies succeed in securing strong economic growth, the world economy will continue to be burdened with a mix of economic interdependence and political Balkanism (fragmentation based on national exploitation).

While the world is in urgent need of better coordination of monetary, financial and trade policies, it will instead retreat from the little coordination already in place.

This is a direct result of the deterioration of leadership in the major economies, especially the United States under President Donald Trump.

It is impressive that American institutions, from the Federal Reserve and the judiciary to state governments, the media and academia, were trying in those difficult times.

It is hoped that voters at the global level will realize the stupidity of nationalism in a deeply intertwined world.

[Synopsis]

56 minutes ago, yota691 said:

It is hoped that voters at the global level will realize the stupidity of nationalism in a deeply intertwined world

 

              

 

The incredible stupidity of THIS person to make such a statement. The True The United States Of America Patriot President Donald J Trump is doing for The United States Of America AND the World what MUST be done so the WHOLE World DOES NOT crater with fiscal irresponsibilities on the GLOBAL LEVEL!!!

 

Go The True The United States Of America Patriot President Donald J Trump!!!

 

Go True The United States Of America Patriots!!!

 

Go True Freedom Loving AND Nationalist Patriots Everywhere!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!