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By Adam Montana
Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension
By Omar Moradi yesterday at 11:14 Iraqi forces drive past an oil production plant as they head towards the city of Kirkuk on October 16, 2017. Photo: Ahmad al-Rubaye | AFP The lack of oil and gas federal legislation has been the root cause of problems between Erbil and Baghdad since the Iraqi constitution was approved in 2005. Now there is a government in Baghdad that has shown its desire to resolve these problems through dialogue, and the success of the new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) cabinet depends on whether the oil and gas issue is resolved with Baghdad.
According to the constitution, it is the joint responsibility of both the federal and regional government to develop oil and gas resources through a particular oil and gas legislation. But as of yet, no such legislation has been passed, causing disagreements between the two governments.
Iraq's parliament unsuccessfully tried to pass a law on oil and gas in 2007. Following that, Kurdish parliament passed its own oil and gas law that same year, allowing the KRG to handle and develop the region’s natural resources.
The Kurdistan Region parliament’s oil and gas law gave it complete power over the region’s natural resources, much like an independent and sovereign country. The conditions of the oil market along with the law helped foreign companies invest substantially in the oil and gas sectors in the Kurdistan Region.
Investments in Kurdistan Region’s oil and gas sectors reached its peak when oil prices were high pre-2014, surpassing $20 billion. But after oil prices fell in mid-2014, the Kurdistan Region and the rest of the world's oil investors faced a deficit.
This shock was especially big in the Kurdistan Region. The federal government in Baghdad cut Kurdistan Region’s share of the federal budget in 2014, after which a big financial crisis rocked the Kurdistan Region. The impact of the crisis is still seen in the Region's economy. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) still owes money it borrowed during this time.
The KRG and federal government should resolve oil and budget problems in order for stability and certainty to return to the economy of the Kurdistan Region - otherwise a big opportunity will be missed.
The Iraqi constitution can help in this matter. According to Article 112 of the Iraqi constitution, the running of oilfields in Iraq is the responsibility of both federal and regional governments, or the provinces the oil lies in.
According to the oil and gas law of the Kurdistan Region, the KRG and its Ministry of Natural Resources are free to sign contracts with foreign companies that serve the interests of the Kurdistan Region. That is why the KRG signed nearly 50 contracts with oil companies after 2007 which are producing substantial amounts of oil and natural gas.
The KRG planned to produce a million barrels of oil per day, but couldn’t do so because of the Islamic State (ISIS) onslaught and falling oil prices after 2014. But because of its robust oil and gas legislation, it still has the ability to produce vast quantities of oil and gas in the coming years.
The Kurdistan Region’s oil and gas law shouldn’t be abandoned in negotiations between the KRG and federal government on the issue of oil sales and production. The oil and gas law of the Kurdistan Region allows for the setting up of a box for oil revenues. The law also considers the formation of some national companies for the exploration, production, and marketing of oil in the Kurdistan Region. The establishment of these national companies can reinvigorate the oil sector in the Kurdistan Region.
With regards to the sale of oil, the Kurdistan Region can give all or some of the oil it produces to the federal government via national companies and ask for its fair share in return. This will not reduce the Kurdistan Region’s control over its oil sector, as the KRG has its own oil and gas law, is running these sectors in its own way, and has established its own mechanism and infrastructure for the last 10 years.
By Adam Montana
Good morning all!
Today is Wednesday, 3rd of July 2019.
The air is crisp... well, not really. Actually it's humid here and the mosquitos are napping for the moment, but it's still a beautiful day!
Interesting times right now. GOI members are playing very nicely. Bitcoin saw that pullback I mentioned, and looks to be on the rise again. The G20 didn't produce any immediately exciting news that I've ran across, but it didn't bring us anything bad either.
Back in the news, and worth a review, is the current OPEC agreement.
This article I posted this morning highlights a very important point I've been harping on for some time, and even extends it - the current OPEC deal.
Important notes in that article:
Iraq is the 2nd largest oil producer in OPEC. (Does it make sense that it's currency is valued so low?) The production limitation agreement has been extended for 9 months - to boost the price of oil, rather than overproduce and drive the prices down.
There is more in there, but let's focus on those for a moment.
The amount of time the agreement has been extended isn't as important as the mere fact that it IS extended. Oil is hovering just under that $60 mark, and the stability is a great thing. Stable oil prices = comfortable accountants = solid footing to RV. (Yes, the accountants have a say!)
Iraq is noted as the second largest producer... wait, what? We're talking about BLACK GOLD here, one of the most valuable commodities on the planet. And Iraq is #2... yet the currency they use is currently over 1000X weaker than the US dollar.
Collectively, OPEC nations have over 80% of the world's known oil reserves... yet Iraq, the 2nd largest producer in that group, has a currency that would require 2000 pieces of it to buy a loaf of bread at your corner store.
OPEC as a group agreed to keep oil production low, to stimulate oil prices. The majority of the members placed their name on the list of participants in this endeavor when it was originally voted on.
The majority of the members did that...
... Iraq specifically did NOT.
I hope you understand how huge this is for Iraq. They are one of the founding members of OPEC. The 2nd largest producer in the group. Iraq is agreeing to support these cuts.
But they did not agree to join the group in their cuts.
This gives Iraq carte blanche - complete freedom - to increase their production on a moment's notice, revalue their currency, and corner the market while they rake in cash to cover their "expenses". They may be operating on an increased production as we speak, stocking up hidden stores of oil in preparation for a huge push to bring in a massive amount of capital to cover the RV. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as they say, and that's just one aspect.
The above is certainly an oversimplification of the big picture, but the fact remains - Iraq is nodding in agreement with the cuts, but they have never committed to it.
Have a safe and happy 4th, everyone! If my next post is missing some letters, I'll run a contest to see who can guess which finger I may have lost.
P.S. As a side note, you might want to consider shorting oil as soon as the RV is announced... I know that's a gamble I'll be considering heavily.
By Adam Montana
Adding a rare discount on VIP and some selected OSI products!
Save a cool 20% with code "G20" at this link:
You'll get access to all things VIP, including our very active crypto section. Join us!
****** end edit.
Happy Hump Day!
There is a recurring note present in my updates recently... I'm sure many of you already noticed.
The note has to do with the truth that can be found in rumors, even if the rumors themselves are not entirely accurate.
I'm going to continue that today, because the rumor section seems exceptionally lively... and some of it holds some very solid truths, even if the rumors themselves have been hyper-inflated like that time your neighbor Bob caught that 28 pound perch.
This time of year has historically been big for Iraq. Monumental items like Chapter 7 unfolded in late June, and there's another important event right around the corner:
The G20 Summit.
Here's a fairly detailed explanation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-g20-summit-explained
You probably noticed that Iraq is not on the list. In that case, it might not be immediately obvious why this even matters to us, so I'll explain a small part of it.
Even though Iraq isn't technically "present", it's not difficult to understand that anytime oil, money, gold or gifts leave Iraq - they are touched by one or more of those major players listed above. For Iraq to be successful in raising the value of their currency, they need to be able to operate their business, and the G20 Summit will have an effect on how the global money game is played for the next year. Once the Summit has concluded, Iraq may change their tactics slightly, but most importantly they will be free to make a decision and act accordingly.
It's a big deal, and it's good.
So although I don't expect an RV announcement to be made at the Summit, or directly because of the Summit, I do think it's reasonable to expect some actions after the summit.
Before I forget - the DV lottery pool. https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/266455-dv-lottery-games-for-625-626-2019
And if that kind of lottery isn't your thing, maybe bitcoin is... anyone paying attention here? We have a special spot for it in VIP, and we've been pretty hot on BTC for a couple weeks now. Does it surprise anyone that BTC is on a tear right now?
It wouldn't, if you had been watching this VIP thread!
To sum that up, in case you're not in VIP - BTC (bitcoin) took a scant 16 days to soar from 10k to 20k when it hit it's all time high.
As I'm typing this, BTC is over 13k... up over $2000 since yesterday.
When it was announced that facebook was officially getting in the game (see my thread started June 19), I personally hailed it as a great thing for crypto in general.
I will NOT be surprised to see BTC hit 20k again, and it won't take long.
This is not based only on the Facebook announcement, and I won't get into all of the boring details here - we're discussing it in great detail in the VIP section.
Did I mention we're talking about this stuff in VIP?
(As if you needed another reason to join us there, you know! )
Whether you're in the pool, or happily watching Bitcoin rise, or just hanging out in VIP enjoying the knowledge and sharing the adventure with us, waiting to take advantage of a better cash in rate soon...
.... GOOO RRRVVVVV!!!!
By Adam Montana
Are we there yet?!?!!
Good morning all! Lots of hype going on right now. That tends to bring out the best AND the worst in this Dinar adventure, so I want to address it real quick.
Here's a simple truth: There is always going to be "hype". That does NOT mean there is no legitimate opportunity here.
It's like someone passionately exclaiming, "Usain Bolt (the fastest man in the world) could beat a Corvette in a race!"
Is that statement factual?
No, it's a bit of an exaggeration.
But is Usain Bolt still incredibly fast? YES! And while he's probably not going to outpace a vehicle with a top speed of over 200MPH, that doesn't take away from the fact that he holds an incredible record.
The Iraqi Dinar is very similar. We currently have a bit of garbage to sift through as we dig into the "facts". There will always be attention seeking "gurus" making crazy claims about people standing in line to cash in or getting top secret calls from the "Head of International Crystal Ball Readers Association". These delusional characters may even believe the stuff they say, but does that make Usain Bolt any slower?
Sure doesn't! And it also doesn't make the opportunity for the Dinar any less, either.
If you were around the Dinar world before Chapter 7 was lifted, an event that was arguably one of the most important events related to Iraq in recent history, you'll remember that things got VERY exciting before that happened. It was not a guarantee that Chapter 7 would get lifted... in fact, it was questionable if it would actually happen, and very much a surprise to many.
Even without absolute confirmation of this very important event that was about to transpire, and even though many of the news stations and media and all of the people "in the know" didn't give a warning... the dinar world had a "feeling" that something was about to happen.
The rumor mills started cranking up, "reports" of people standing in line in Reno and Vegas and other "select" locations were flying around like monkeys at a circus, and the activity on many websites was through the roof.
Did we have an RV at that time? Obviously not. And nobody cashed in, not in Reno or anywhere else... at least, not at the $3+ rate.
BUT, did something major happen?
That's where we seem to be right now.
This is the time of year that many major milestones have been reached in Iraq.
NOW is the time I'm expecting to see something major... maybe HCL, maybe something else, and very possibly a rate change.
The tension is growing, and it shows in many ways... like how your animals know a storm is coming, when the weatherperson said "10% chance of rain", and then the neighbors barn and cows get taken away in a tornado.
Did you listen?
You might want to get in VIP, now. Join here.
Bring on the twisters!
By Adam Montana
Gooooood afternoon everyone!
Well, we did it! We weathered another Ramadan, and Eid al fitr. I am going to state the obvious: Despite no RV announcement during the Big Holiday, this was a more eventful one than normal.
All positive, too!
Historically, many of the bigger milestones have happened around this time of year. Chapter 7 was lifted in late June, for example. A few others have also occurred right around now as well.
I have my eye on some "triggers" - nothing I can put a guarantee on, and I had a work issue pop up right as I was getting started with this update, so I'll save my hypothesizing for later. I have reason to believe we are entering a unique week for the Iraqi dinar, so I have already blocked time off on my calendar for additional dinar focus over the coming ~10 days.
If I'm wrong, you can tar and feather me. If I'm not wrong, we should have some interesting times ahead.
Before I wrap this up, here's something I don't do very often - This thread is now open for questions.
What's on your mind?
( I'm a glutton for punishment, what can I say?! And I already have extra time blocked off for Dinar this coming week, so what the heck... let's do it! )