Popular Post Adam Montana Posted February 1, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Good morning DinarVets! This is a post I've been working through for a little bit. Some of this is pieced together from thoughts that I had at different times recently, some of the figures are from memory and might be off by a fraction, but the theory is solid. Question: Is Iraq going to "lop"? In the case of Iraq, one of 3 things is going to happen eventually, with “eventually” being either immediately, next week, or maybe a year from now. There is no “deadline” that they are bound to, nor will there ever be one in the current political and economic climate. Certainly there will be factors that could encourage Iraq to move faster or bide their time, but there is no entity or force on the planet that can force Iraq to make any changes to their monetary policy. (I know, I know... "Guru X said next Tuesday and swore on Grandma Nellys urn." I really don't care, and Grandma Nelly doesn't either.) Let's start by talking about the “value” of currencies. When someone says “things are cheaper in Mexico”, or “your money is worth more in X or Y country”, the merit to that kind of statement is marginal. For the sake of using round numbers, you get 1000 dinars for 1 US dollar. If you get one gallon of milk for 2 US dollars, youʼre not going to get 500 gallons of milk for 1000 dinars... youʼre going to pay 2000 dinars for a gallon of milk. Letʼs hop over to Mexico for a minute - are things cheaper in Mexico? In some cases, yes! You may spend the equivalent of $1US for a gallon of milk in Mexico, making your money go twice as far... which means you have twice as much money! $1000 in small-town rural Mexico may go 2x further than Chicago or New York. If you know exactly how much money you have to spend for the rest of your life, moving to a place where your money will go further may be something to consider. Why live like a pauper in NYC if you can live like royalty in Panama, Costa Rica, or Mexico? Before this gets too confusing, letʼs get back to that “value” issue... wouldn't it be a hoot if you could simply convert your money to pesos, where you have 2x the value, then convert back to USD, doubling your money? And just do that again and again until you had enough to buy a big yacht to pull your little yacht on the way to your personal island. Unfortunately, thatʼs not how it works. Youʼd actually end up losing money as you exchange, because the entities doing the exchanging charge some kind of fee for their service - sometimes this is called a “spread”, and I outlined that in the knowledge packed RV Intel book. (Itʼs helped thousands of you become a 13 minute expert on the Iraqi Dinar, grab your copy here!) https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/store/category/5-rv-intel-and-the-cash-in-guide/ VIP members, your copy is free at this link: https://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/235186-rv-intel-and-cash-in-guide-updated-2017/ Before we get too sidetracked talking about cheap places to live like a King or Queen, letʼs get back to the Iraqi Dinar, and more importantly, whatʼs going to happen to it in the near future. Like I said at the start, Iraq will do one of three things. In plain Dinarianese, these things are: RV (ReValue) Lop (remove some zeros, either from the exchange rate or the denominations) Nothing. The definition of “RV” and “Lop” can be found in the RV Intel guide, so I wonʼt go into detail on that here. Those terms are defined in the book already. One thing that is not discussed at length is the probability of a lop. One of the best things about this whole Iraqi Dinar thing is this - the absolute worst thing that is likely to happen to us is a net 0 event, where we break even on our money. Seriously, thatʼs the reality! Of course there is a tiny chance that we lose some money. There's also the fact that many of you that have been here with me since the beginning have already almost doubled your money! The worst case realistic scenario is that we break even due to a “lop”. That's it - that's the worst likely "bad" scenario. So, how likely is THAT to happen? Letʼs talk about why a country would do that in the first place, and I think youʼre going to see what many others agree with already: Reasons for removing zeros. Obtaining international credit Regaining national identity and national confidence Controlling currency market Decreasing inflation pressures Preventing currency replacement with foreign currencies Some of those *could* certainly apply to Iraq, but... they donʼt need to lop in order to do any of those. Iraq has already made strong progress in rebuilding and obtaining international credit. They do not have an emergency situation, like Zimbabwe or Venezuela. In fact, Iraqʼs international credit is rated across the board as “B grade” and “Stable” Iraq has already made tons of progress here. A lop is not going to enhance that. The CBI already controls the currency market. There is no need for further action. Iraqʼs most recent inflation was measured at about 2% - almost identical to the United States. We are not talking about Zimbabwe here! Multiple currencies are used in Iraq, but there are no threats of replacing the Iraqi Dinar. But hang on, thatʼs not all! Thereʼs more: Since 1960, only 71 cases of lopping have occurred. In the last 50 years, only 19 countries have removed 0ʼs, with 10 of those countries doing it twice. 4 times for Argentina 5 times in former Yugoslavia Brazil 6 times Bolivia 2 times Ukraine 3 times Russia, Poland, Belgium also 3 times Turkey, Island, Korea, and Ghana one time each Brazil holds the record for lopping, with a total of 18 zeros being removed since 1930 and the currency being renamed 8 times. None of those countries are Iraq, have Iraq's resources, have Iraq's potential... heck, none of them even rhyme with "Iraq". Pretty solid evidence that a lop is a pretty low probability event for us here, don't you think? In summary, my opinion of our possible outcomes in this situation is this: 79% chance we see a change in the value upwards in the near future. 20% chance they do nothing other than maintain the status quo (for now). And a slight 1% chance of a lop. Personally... I like love those odds, and I'm sticking it out. I'm also preparing for the eventual change in value by being involved in VIP here at DinarVets. You are doing the same, I hope! Hopefully this little write up was of value to you, my friends! Stay positive, stay warm, and GOOOOO RRRRRVVVVVVVV!!!! Warmest RV Regards, - Adam P.S. This is not an invitation for the lopster gang to dogpile in here and start spouting your economic genius about how the M0 of Iraq in February makes it impossible to boil a garbage can of rice because hippos like Bingo under a full moon. There's another section on the forums for that 6 22 1 16 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geman Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 So we continue to wait. That being said I do look forward to are trip to Belize this month. Thank you sir and have a great weekend. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Montana Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, geman said: So we continue to wait. That being said I do look forward to are trip to Belize this month. Thank you sir and have a great weekend. Enjoy your trip! Belize is an amazing country 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davis411 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Thanks mr a but mmmm I like lobster hope to afford it soon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sitkadoc Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I continue to be intrigued as I have now for several years. 😎 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3KINGS Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Talk to you Friday morning at the latest. Be well, and GO RVVVVV!!!! - Adam P.S. This was a quick post, but we have some REAL good news coming soon. I can't wait. CAN NOT WAIT! To share more of what is lurking just round the corner for us! Good things come to those that wait, and it's looking like we've all waited about long enough... things are coming for us. More on that soon. Are you sharing more today? Or is this it? LOP info? ' 2 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artitech Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 JMHO, if Iraq was going to lop, they could have done that years ago without all the expense they have went through over the years. I understand why Adam gives that a 1% chance Of happening. It’s Iraq anything can happen there! If anything can go wrong it will! Like I have said, I think we are in a 2 week window, if don’t happen here in it next is mid year. Then who knows. Like Adam says it could just continue to operate just like it is for no on! 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linda Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Thank you for the update! It is appreciated! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddl Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Thank you Adam. I agree that a pure Lop with no change in value of the currency is unlikely. But I think that there is some support for the possibility of removing the zeros with a concurrent revaluation by 1000. There may be some confusion about those two possibilities. Any further thoughts about the latter possibility? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
climber7 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, 3KINGS said: Are you sharing more today? Or is this it? LOP info? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanD Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Good topic and well stated. Thanks Adam. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoviceInvestor Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) Thank you Adam for your explanation it was very much appreciated and “eventually” we will see this journey end one way or the other .. 🙏 Edited February 1, 2019 by NoviceInvestor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calijim Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 I’m betting all my dinar on an RV 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑😜🤞🤞🤞👍👍👍👍 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Synopsis Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Thank You for the exhibition of brilliance here where I had to put on my welding helmet to view Your post, Adam, AND The Very Best Of Your Weekend To You (stay warm and be sure to plug in Your wife’s engine block heater )!!! Well, OK, I am hoping You, Adam, could comment on a simple mental model I have (maybe BABY a little TOO simple). To context a little, Iraq is one of the richest undeveloped countries in the world. Value to be have with the opiate of prosperity for the Bicraqi Iraqi AND Internationally. However, with this “space” or vacuum, really, in Iraq to include the reconstruction, construction, AND economic development, the Monetary Potential Force (Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Comparative Monetary Value) would have to reach the true value BEFORE foreign investment starts in earnest. Otherwise Iraq would destabilize monetarily in the future with any significant upward changes from the current program rate. Also, the volume of Bicraqi Iraqi would need to be reduced with real time 24/7 online international transactions instead on the CBI currency auctions. Kinda like the “ELI the ICE man” analogy I posted a while back (hopefully You, Adam, had better things to read ) where the Monetary Potential Force (voltage) has to be increased ahead of the Volume of Monetary Transactions (amperage) to “Induce” or “power up” Iraq to an international foreign investment AND trade partner. So we see the Bicraqi Iraqi turning on the great big ole neon sign, “Hurry EVERYBODY to invest in Iraq. We are Safe, Stable, Secure, Socereign, AND Profitable (Hey, we even opened up the Green(back) Zone !!!)”!!! A possible related note is ISIS is rapidly losing that last stinkin’ pocket northeast of the Euphrates AND close to the Bicraqi Iraqi border. A recent announcement states that area would be fully retaken in the next two weeks. Free AND Unrestricted Trade through THIS border port just prior to the ReIstatement???!!! The Good News seems to be building AND building AND building with more AND more cracks appearing in the dam while the dam is bulging. My opinion is the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar ReInatatement will be more like grinding some gears instead of an entirely smooth shift where nothing will line up perfectly EVER!!! So, some of the policies and agreements may be superseded (like the IMF Stand By Agrreement) due to a reasonably low risk to acquire the HUGE size of the prize. Do You think this is a reasonably supportable view based on current conditions in AND pertaining to Iraq? For reasons stated, are You of the opinion the relevant Bicraqi Iraqi are under IMMENSE pressure to get the show on the road to include a ReInstatement of the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar? A side note is crude oil futures are nominally $55/barrel (WTI based) whereas there was an article recently suggesting Iraq is valuing some crudes on a Brent basis that is nominally $10/barrel higher or nominally $65/barrel. Earlier, You mentioned $65/barrel is being close to the goal line where $70/barrel is basically a goal. Does this crude oil valuation further boost Your confidence on a more likely eminent Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar ReInstatement. As ALWAYS, Thank You, Adam, for ALL You AND Your Affiliates do for us!!!! Go Moola Nova! 3 3 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiljor Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Good morning Adam and DV. The risk reward ratio in this investment, was, and still is, a valid investment if you can hang in there, yes some here have been waiting a long time but I'm sure the wait will be worth it. Just remember, you can still cash in and at least get what you have put into this, although, I don't recommend it. One thing is for sure, progress is being made, slowly, but moving forward. I agree with Adam, that a LOP is very unlikely and now that oil seems to be moving up again, it will help with the influx of cash. Me personally, Im here till the end, one way or the other, and, if this does come to fruitation, it will go down as one of the most amazing investment strategies ever made. 2 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gramms9 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Hi Adam as we come close to another quarterly fee coming due I'm having trouble trying to figure how we have profited so far. we have been in a long time and I can't really remember what the rate was back in 2005-6 but could you show me where the gain would be. I know corporate fees for the last 5 years has been somewhat heavy with my budget ,maybe I just need a bit of reassurance. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiljor Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Synopsis said: Thank You for the exhibition of brilliance here where I had to put on my welding helmet to view Your post, Adam, AND The Very Best Of Your Weekend To You (stay warm and be sure to plug in Your wife’s engine block heater )!!! Well, OK, I am hoping You, Adam, could comment on a simple mental model I have (maybe BABY a little TOO simple). To context a little, Iraq is one of the richest undeveloped countries in the world. Value to be have with the opiate of prosperity for the Bicraqi Iraqi AND Internationally. However, with this “space” or vacuum, really, in Iraq to include the reconstruction, construction, AND economic development, the Monetary Potential Force (Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Comparative Monetary Value) would have to reach the true value BEFORE foreign investment starts in earnest. Otherwise Iraq would destabilize monetarily in the future with any significant upward changes from the current program rate. Also, the volume of Bicraqi Iraqi would need to be reduced with real time 24/7 online international transactions instead on the CBI currency auctions. Kinda like the “ELI the ICE man” analogy I posted a while back (hopefully You, Adam, had better things to read ) where the Monetary Potential Force (voltage) has to be increased ahead of the Volume of Monetary Transactions (amperage) to “Induce” or “power up” Iraq to an international foreign investment AND trade partner. So we see the Bicraqi Iraqi turning on the great big ole neon sign, “Hurry EVERYBODY to invest in Iraq. We are Safe, Stable, Secure, Socereign, AND Profitable (Hey, we even opened up the Green(back) Zone !!!)”!!! A possible related note is ISIS is rapidly losing that last stinkin’ pocket northeast of the Euphrates AND close to the Bicraqi Iraqi border. A recent announcement states that area would be fully retaken in the next two weeks. Free AND Unrestricted Trade through THIS border port just prior to the ReIstatement???!!! The Good News seems to be building AND building AND building with more AND more cracks appearing in the dam while the dam is bulging. My opinion is the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar ReInatatement will be more like grinding some gears instead of an entirely smooth shift where nothing will line up perfectly EVER!!! So, some of the policies and agreements may be superseded (like the IMF Stand By Agrreement) due to a reasonably low risk to acquire the HUGE size of the prize. Do You think this is a reasonably supportable view based on current conditions in AND pertaining to Iraq? For reasons stated, are You of the opinion the relevant Bicraqi Iraqi are under IMMENSE pressure to get the show on the road to include a ReInstatement of the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar? A side note is crude oil futures are nominally $55/barrel (WTI based) whereas there was an article recently suggesting Iraq is valuing some crudes on a Brent basis that is nominally $10/barrel higher or nominally $65/barrel. Earlier, You mentioned $65/barrel is being close to the goal line where $70/barrel is basically a goal. Does this crude oil valuation further boost Your confidence on a more likely eminent Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar ReInstatement. As ALWAYS, Thank You, Adam, for ALL You AND Your Affiliates do for us!!!! Go Moola Nova! As always, well stated brother 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Montana Posted February 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, 3KINGS said: Are you sharing more today? Or is this it? LOP info? ' More coming later in the VIP section. I was up at 3 AM to get this part posted this morning and I have other things to do today… I won’t promise the VIP Post will be up today, but sometime over the weekend is a good bet. 1 7 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Synopsis Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wiljor said: As always, well stated brother !!!SALUD, DUDE ( ) !!!, Wiljor, AND The Very Best Of Your Weekend To You!!! Go Moola Nova! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DF#1 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Adam Montana said: More coming later in the VIP section. I was up at 3 AM to get this part posted this morning and I have other things to do today… I won’t promise the VIP Post will be up today, but sometime over the weekend is a good bet. Maybe somebody can copy and paste it, for all of us that can't afford the VIP section..... 😁👍 ====================== !!! ‼️ !!! ======================= ADMIN NOTE: @DF#1 issued a warning for this comment. Dissemination of private VIP material is a blatant violation of forum rules! Edited February 1, 2019 by Adam Montana Added serious warning. 1 5 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPatriotsFan1 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, Adam Montana said: More coming later in the VIP section. I was up at 3 AM to get this part posted this morning and I have other things to do today… I won’t promise the VIP Post will be up today, but sometime over the weekend is a good bet. Just tell me if I can watch the Super Bowl in peace or if I need to have my phone on vibrate.... so I can get the text from you!? 😂 Maybe the SuperBowl is the perfect time to pull the trigger on the RV with so many eyes focused on that, most won’t even notice it happened 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C71 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Adam, Thanks so much for your insight and comments (especially the humor). I look forward to your weekly information. They say patience is a virtue right? Well, I guess we all must be really virtuous or is that virtuoso? HmmmmHmmmm while waiting. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3KINGS Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 thanks adam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robwinks57 Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 8 years on and still waiting patiently. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted February 1, 2019 Report Share Posted February 1, 2019 Thank you Adam. I’ve been waiting 11 years so I can continue to wait as long as necessary. I don’t see how a lop really helps them and I think your stand on a low rate like .10 and go on a float makes the most sense for them. We’ll see, instead of buying a big house and a cool car, at my age maybe I’ll be able to buy a cool walker or wheelchair. Haha. 1 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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