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Sunday Afternoon Guru Opinions @ 4:20 PM EST - 1/13/2019


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1-13-2019   Newshound Guru MilitiaMan  Article: "Iraqi Dinar revaluation postponed by Central Bank for 5 years says MP Noura al-Bajari by Amre Sarhan Oct 29, 2014,"   Good deal...WS [Guru Walkingstick] told us back years ago that the process on the second set of books takes time. I believe there is data to support that from the IMF. Didn’t WS suggest that time of the four year process to be 01/01/2018? I think so. So if that is the case which, I believe to be supportive being his track record is very good. The One more year equates to? Any time now! IMO...! 



1-13-2019   Intel Guru Delta   Article quote:  "The revaluation of the Iraqi dinar is ready to be implemented by the country's Central Bank; however, the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission has decided to postpone the revaluation to 2019."   THIS ARTICLE IS FROM 08/16/2017...2019 IT'S...(an exciting prospect - if they hold to their statement..!)



1-13-2019   Intel Guru RayRen98   Iraq TV is reporting to the citizens they are "not seeing an end in sight" regarding the differences in the chosen names for cabinet seats and that this is causing damage to their government.  Iraqi TV is reporting "no time table" for the completion of the cabinet voting. [Really? Is this a smoke screen...Time Will Tell..!]



1-13-2019   Newshound Guru  Kaperoni  The dinar you own will never go back to Iraq.  It will become part of the global traded currencies.

 

 

 

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Posted at 11:20 PM CST:

 

1-13-2019   Newshound Guru Kaperoni    I'll say it again...there can never be an overnight RV or RI, there is just to much dinar in circulation.  Our best hope is for the CBI to move off the peg to a float and allow the dinar to rise gradually.  Such an event could allow for a gradual reduction of currency.  The simple fact that over 40 trillion dinar is in circulation is all one needs to know to realize there NEVER can be a RV or RI...Simply put, there is just to much dinar in circulation for such an event. The good news is the IMF documented very clearly the intent to float the dinar and if investment comes into Iraq as expected it should create the Balassa-Samuelson effect allowing the dinar to rise gradually.  I believe once the CBI begins the float, the dinar could rise significantly within 6-12 months.

 

 

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I have to agree with Kap. The very fact that so much Dinar is in circulation it would be almost impossible to RV or RI. Common sense and a little math tells us that 40 trillion does not allow for even 1 to 1 much less 3 or 4 $. Gradual increase like it was doing back in the mid 2000 time frame is our best bet in my opinion. 

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Someone is welcome to correct my math but if Iraq has 40 T in circulation vs US dollar at 1.65 then just a straight ratio would be 1.65 divided by 40 would give the equivalent value or .04125 value Dinar to dollar. This may be an over simplification but best I can figure considering apples to apples

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1 hour ago, trvlr787 said:

Someone is welcome to correct my math but if Iraq has 40 T in circulation vs US dollar at 1.65 then just a straight ratio would be 1.65 divided by 40 would give the equivalent value or .04125 value Dinar to dollar. This may be an over simplification but best I can figure considering apples to apples

 

Thanks trvlr787 ... even that four cents+ would work for me as an ROI - since I've been in this investment since 2009...!

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Maybe an over simplification here:

 

Total Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Printed = Total Destroyed To Date By CBI (known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Governments (known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Foreigners Legally (known) + Total Currently Held By CBI (known) + Total Currently Held By Bicraqi Iraqi Government Functions (known) + Total Currently In Circulation In Iraq (fairly well known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Bicraqi Iraqi (estimate) + Total Currently In Possession AND Used By Individuals And Organizations Illegally (estimate)

 

So the question is, "What does the 40 Trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in circulation consist of???!!!"???!!!

 

I think knowing the left side of the equation (Total Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Printed) AND the first four on the right side of the equation (Total Destroyed To Date By CBI (known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Governments (known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Foreigners Legally (known) + Total Currently Held By CBI (known)) would give an accurate determination of the remaining four on the right side of the equation (Total Currently Held By Bicraqi Iraqi Government Functions (known) + Total Currently In Circulation In Iraq (fairly well known) + Total Currently Hoarded By Bicraqi Iraqi (estimate) + Total Currently In Possession And Used By Individuals And Organizations Illegally (estimate)).

 

I suspect the first four and the second four on the right side of the equation are being mixed together in some respect so not an accurate indication of the ACTUAL Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in circulation in Iraq and Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar used illegally for transactions with illegal entities.

 

For example, there are nominally 20 weekday CBI daily currency auctions at, say, 200 Million USD per day or nominally 4 Billion USD per month. At a rate of nominally 1,200 Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar per USD, the transactions amount to 4.8 Trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar per month for international transactions. With the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar transactions, I suspect any particular Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar would make the circuit in a month so not much more than 4.8 Trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar needed for transactions.

 

Also, there has been a steady progression to go electronic so physical dinars are decreasing in need. The "in circulation" may be further compromised if electronic Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar transactions in Iraq are also included.

 

I may be WAY OFF here but I think there is a whole lot less than 40 Trillion Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar in ACTUAL circulation in Iraq. The numbers may be inaccurately reported to give an indication of no ReInstatement in sight then BOOM!!! "SUDDENLY!!!"!!!

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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4 hours ago, Botzwana said:

my info comes from this article that states it will be above 3 bucks.  Show me kaps article where it says there is too much in circulation. ......Hi Botzwana, Kap's statement above is based upon his continuing analysis & evaluation of things as they are "today", and are ever changing. The Future of Iraq Project (declassified in 2012) indicated the desire was to return the IQD back to the pre-Saddam rate of $3.33, but it didn't define the time-frame to get it there. In the early days, even Kap held that it could come out in the $3 range but certain conditions had to be met. Adam Montana held to a 10 cent valuation for many years. Many others held firmly to an 86 cent rate. All showed good reasons for these value estimates. But a lot has changed ECONOMICALLY - in Iraq, the USA, and worldwide. Even the CBI Governer Shabibi indicated (in 2010) that the IQD could sustain a $10 or higher rate. However a lot has changed since then (2010), and even since the Jan 2017 article was published. Personally, I'll be happy with anything over 5 cents for a number of reasons, but would be delighted with it over $3. If you recall, Iraq was squabbling with Kuwait around 2012-2014 to not revalue the IQD higher than the Kuwaiti Dinar rate. All these things have been forgotten by the IQD community. We shall see - only when the CBI moves to Article VIII and goes international. Until then, we WAIT...!

 

I hope this clarifies a few things for everyone.

I think DinarThug should repost the article as a reminder of what was said 2 years ago.

Blessings to all. Be patient and hopefull...! :) RON  :salute:

 

Edited by ronscarpa
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