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By Adam Montana
Good morning DV!
The sun is shining most places and it's a great day to be here!
No major updates on the dinar, but that's not discouraging in the least. If you check my last couple weekly updates, and then compare to the news posts over the last week, you'll see that we're simply tracking on a positive course.
All good stuff, my friends!
VIPs, there is a new post up for you in the VIP section:
I also sent out an email yesterday to all VIPs. If you're in VIP, and you did not see that email in your inbox, then it went to your spam or promotions or some other email destination... it's up to you to fix that! I can't control your email inbox, and we don't want you to miss important updates, so take a minute to ensure DinarVets emails are landing in your Primary inbox and you'll enjoy the peace of mind that comes along with that.
One last thing - in that VIP post, I mentioned an upcoming OSI post. After sleeping on it last night, I am going to save that post for during Ramadan.
That's it from me for today - let's use this thread for Q's from the members for my next update. The current news trend is really positive and I have a suspicion that I'll be doing more than one update next week.
By Adam Montana
Goooood morning DV!
This post will be a follow up to this week's earlier post... it's entirely possible that updates 2x per week are going to start happening, due to current events.
Before I get too far into that, one quick clarification - earlier this week I said PM Abadi was in Saudi Arabia on business. Obviously this was a mistake, as the current Prime Minister of Iraq is no longer Abadi.
Nonetheless! The actual PM of Iraq, Abdul Mahdi, was indeed in Saudi Arabia - and the resulting news is a bit of a present, if you ask me. (Speaking of presents - happy Easter, Passover, and all the other related holidays this time of year, whichever you do or don't observe!)
As I was getting ready to post this, a perfect article was posted. I'll link to it below - use your discerning intelligence to pick through the article and tell me if you see the same thing I do.
This situation is completely lopsided. The focus is heavily on Iraq, the benefits to Iraq, and not much else.
In what world is that a deal we expect to see from the Saudis... are they suddenly charitable people operating for the sole purpose of World Peace and charity?
I don't think so. Therefore, the equalization simply isn't being mentioned. I'll get into this more in a second, but first here is the article:
As I mentioned in my post earlier this week, Saudi Arabia is important to Iraq. Take a look at the map below - you'll see that Iraq has 3 major countries that border it, and only one actual connection to water.
Aside from that small bit of beach I circled below... Iraq is landlocked.
The two largest borders are Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both countries present opportunities for oil delivery... in order to sell their oil, they must deliver it. In order to deliver the oil, it must get to the sea, unless they are to limit their market to the 6 countries that border them... and why would other oil rich countries pay a premium to Iraq?
They would not, and will not. So it's in Iraq's best interest to have great relationships with it's neighbors, and it's important that the global market approves of these relationships.
Iran and Syria are questionable allies... but Saudi Arabia is a solid partner.
This is why I'm excited to see Iraq buddying up with Saudi Arabia, and it's even more exciting that it's not exactly clear what Saudi Arabia has to benefit at this time.
I think we all know, or can use our imaginations.
On that note, there is still a discount going - I'll leave it up for a little bit longer, but not too long!
Get in VIP now and save 33% - discount code "chipper", link here.
See you in there, and GO RV!!!!!!
By Adam Montana
Good morning all!
A few things to touch on this morning, and then I'll send out an email.
First on my list - and I'm going to keep this SIMPLE - we are in my green zone!
There is no better place on this chart for an RV. It is THAT simple!
Because I'm feeling so chipper about this graphic, you're going to get a 33% discount on VIP. Take advantage, get in! Click here and use discount code "chipper".
Just as an FYI, I don't send out emails weekly. It's not my intention to clutter your inbox, and if you're hankering for a dinar news fix, you know where to come... right here!
On to more exciting stuff!
There was a bit of suspense regarding Iraqi Parliamentary activity today. The Financial Management aspect was pushed off, but I don't see that as a major factor. The other 5 matters were attended to, from what we can tell... 5 out of 6 is a huge improvement over what we used to see out of Parliament! This is just another testament to the progress Iraq has made and continues to make.
Oil... I know I don't have to harp on this, but oil is a big deal and Iraq is focused heavily. In fact, OIL wasn't even officially on the agenda for today's Parliament votes, yet it was still a heavy matter of discussion.
I'm reading into that part. It wasn't even on the official agenda, but it was a major point of discussion. The goal, as stated by all reports, is to get affairs in order quickly. That makes sense to me, and I'm keeping a keen eye on things.
I think we're going to see HCL news quicker than they are letting on.
To add to that thought, let's consider the current global situations of two other countries that are relevant to Iraq's progression: Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran and Iraq are friendlier than I like, but that's an emotional opinion rather than a business one. Iran is in a geographical position to be beneficial to Iraq, and Iraq does have a large percentage of it's population that is sympathetic to Iran, so some buddying up is to be expected and will not prevent or delay a restructuring or revaluing of their currency. Iran is handicapped by sanctions at the moment, so they are of less help than they would be otherwise.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is not crippled at all. They are powerful, in good graces on many accounts, and are getting friendlier with Iraq than they have in the past. Since Iran is not the most capable ally to Iraq,
does it surprise anyone that PM Abadi is in Saudi Arabia today... discussing trade, policy, and OIL?
Abadi is currently on day 1 of a 2 day visit. I am crossing my fingers for some solid progress as a result of the things I've just mentioned.
Next on the list of items "coming up soon" is Ramadan. This is a big part of the timing... we're either going to see an RV before Ramadan, or after Ramadan.
I've maintained for years that no RV will happen during Ramadan, and that hasn't changed.
Ramadan comes early this time around - May 5 to June 4, according to google.
Show me HCL news in the next week and I think we're looking at a big surprise... I hope you are all ready. If you're not in VIP before the RV is announced, you will have missed your chance. As soon as the value on the dinar changes, the doors on VIP will immediately close, and you will be locked out forever.
Use this discount and get in there with us! Discount code "chipper" will work on any of the first 3 packages listed here.
I'm going to wrap up for this morning, but I'll leave you with something @Synopsis posted a few days ago... I happen to agree with most of it.
======== Quoted post below: =======
I recognize the Bicraqi Iraqi GOI, among other Bicraqi Iraqi functions, is/are extremely dysfunctional at best.
I am not sure about the "cohesiveness" of the Bicraqi Iraqi prior to Saddam Hussein whereas I suspect legacy Ottoman Empire, World War I, World War II, legacy Silk Road, and modern economic interests in Iraq have "shaped" a semi cultural nomadic lot of tribal and otherwise inclined easily excitable on a variety of different issue folk.
So now enter the Bicraqi Iraqi democracy and foreign influences.
The Bicraqi Iraqi have both benefits and challenges being strategically located and enormous natural resource wealth beyond just the crude oil.
Likely, many entities are on the take whereas the rank and file Bicraqi Iraqi Citizen just wants a better life - without war - like other sane people.
Except, Heat AND Sand Season REALLY messes THEM up like NOTHING else.
So, the Bicraqi Iraqi as a whole are likely substantially without a cohesive understand of what a national norm is, what it looks like, and how to sustain it.
However, Iraq, with ALL the Bicraqi Iraqi, REALLY needs to be a Safe, Secure, Stable, AND Sovereign State for both Bicraqi Iraqi AND INTERNATIONAL reasons.
Enter the "opiate of prosperity" via Foreign Investment ALONG with the Safety, Security, Stability, AND Sovereign Iraq CAN OFFER the Bicraqi Iraqi whereas THEIR prosperous norm, should it be challenged, WILL BE neutralized at the source.
Some of THESE roots are taking ahold now although slow and tedious.
It is fabled Dr. Shabibi WAS going to ReInstate the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar back in 2012 or 2013 at a time, oddly, outside of the typically assessed "prime" "time" of the year.
The question I have is, "Are the conditions better or worse now than in 2012 or 2013 when Dr. Shabibi is fabled to have attempted to ReInstate the Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Internationally?"
In my opinion, the conditions regarding Iraq have never been better now than ever before BY FAR noted here:
Iraq by far is recognized as a Sovereign State by regional and international entities at capacities and frequencies never seen before as a new democratic entity with a distinct government. Old Mr. Potato Head Nouri al-Maliki has never been weaker influentially than now especially with the Insanian Spanctions REALLY biting AND biting MUCH HARDER in the NEAR future. Bark Insane Obama, Hilly, AND Scary John Kerry have all been defanged whereas THEIR liabilities are ratcheting through the legacy systems THAT NO LONGER have the influence and direction like the past. Nauti Arabia, Scordan, AND the KoolAidis ALL have an interest in eradicating Insanian influences in Iraq. The Insanians ONLY destablize entities for THEIR end of destruction and control at the impoverishment level. A significant influence of the Insanians in Iraq THREATENS Nauti Arabia, Scordan, AND KoolAidi Sovereignty as a GROWING cancer. Economically, the Insanians are EXCEPTIONALLY inferior to the Nauti Arabian, Scordanian, AND KoolAidis ESPECIALLY with THESE folks having FAVORABLE relationships with The United States Of America economically AND militarily. Other. I look at Iraq with ALL the Bicraqi Iraqi from the lens of Safety, Security, Stability, AND Sovereignty compared to the level of external influences and internal Sectarian Violence AND likelihood of Civil War. Should the Safety, Security, Stability, AND Sovereignty of Iraq outweigh the external influences and internal Sectarian Violence AND likelihood of Civil War significantly, I suspect the introduction of the "opiate of prosperity" will peg out the Safety, Security, Stability, AND Sovereignty of Iraq while simultaneously strongly forcing out external influences AND quell internal Sectarian Violence AND likelihood of Civil War.
The transitioning to a Bicraqi Iraqi "open economy" with a REAL TIME transacted Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar WILL ALWAYS have SOME ISSUES. NO doubt about it. The transitioning, to me, WILL be like "grinding" "some" "gears" instead of shifting ALL gears smoothly. THERE NEVER WILL BE AN OPTIMUM TIME WHERE EVERY CONDITION IS SATISFIED. The basic issue is whether the key and functional items can be maintained at an acceptable operating level while the other issues and conditions are acceptably rectified past entering the "open economy".
Here are a couple overall parameters to be met, in my opinion:
Sufficient Safety, Security, Stability, AND Sovereignty of Iraq. Absence of Sectarian Strife AND Civil War with the imminent threat thereof in Iraq and areas immediately surrounding Iraq. Sustainable peaceable relations, especially economically, with other international entities. Sufficient International Entity recognition and support system" rel="">support for Iraq as an integrated economic and peaceable entity. The "program" "rate" Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar JUST DOES NOT CUT IT representing the ACTUAL foreign and local investment potential in and for Iraq. The economic imbalances long term WILL NOT sustain Iraq AND the entities doing business with Iraq ESPECIALLY the economically potent AND stable foreign entities investing in Iraq. The Bicraqi Iraqi DINAR MUST GO REAL TIME INTERNATIONAL PRONTO TONTO for the reconstruction, construction, AND economic development to have ANY traction WHATSOEVER!!! WHEN, pray tell, will ALL THIS come together???!!!
Maybe BABY I am JUST WAY, WAY off MY rocker AND YOU wasted YOUR time reading ALL THIS NONSENSE!!!
Ah, ALL told, NOBODY knows IF, WHEN, OR HOW MUCH IF EVER. THIS is, NO doubt ABOUT IT, a Speculative Bicraqi Iraqi Dinar Investment. WE ALL have our varied reasons for reasonably venturing into THIS Investment understanding the risks AND uncertainties with the MADNESS brought about at times with the LACK OF PROGRESS AND PAY OUT WE ALL ARE ANTICIPATING.
Hopefully, THIS was worth YOUR time reading.
Have A Great Weekend!!!
Go Moola Nova!
By Adam Montana
Good evening DinarVets and all you beautiful members! (Same happy greeting to you ugly ones, as well )
If you’ve kept up with my recent posts, you know I’m excited about oil - see here, here, here, here… you get the idea. We finished the week still above $60 on the WTI charts... and still going strong.
Even though DinarVets is the strongest and longest going community in the world related to the dinar, occasionally I am reminded that not everyone who reads my weekly updates has been here forever, and a lot of people count on me and this site to "fill in the blanks" while we're waiting.
I appreciate the reminders! It gives me a good reason to step back and look at the big picture. And as much as the "wait" can be almost debilitating at times...
... this was never going to happen overnight.
At least, not overnight on a night that was on the calendar in the past. When it happens, it will certainly look like an "overnight" event to the outsiders and those that missed the boat.
BIG PICTURE TIME.
There are a lot of moving parts here, but the biggest thing we're waiting on right now is the HCL.
There are a bunch of articles and news related to HCL, and I'm even getting some very encouraging private messages from my contacts about the progress, but the bottom line right now is this:
HCL has not been concluded at this time.
Therefore we have no RV...
Yet, we have reason to keep hanging on, and if I may be so bold... we have a damn good reason for it.
Iraq’s currency price is based on their ability to sell it to other countries, just like any other country with a tradable currency. Their ability to sell their currency is determined by what other countries will pay for it - this is the basic concept of supply and demand. Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, no more and no less. In the currency exchange game, stronger demand for a currency will create a larger market, which pushes the price up. In order for Iraq to raise the "sell" price of their currency, they have to create a strong market for it.
If they don't have a strong market, then we could never have a chance of an RV.
That is not the case. We DO have a strong market.
If Iraq wasn't making progress towards stability and strength, we would have no chance of an RV.
That is also not the case. Iraq IS moving in the right direction.
They are doing it by solidifying their government and stabilizing their perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.
That's really all this comes down to, after all.
Iraq's ability to raise the value of their currency is based on the perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.
This is exactly why the value of the Dinar dropped to pennies on the dollar in such a short time when it did. When Iraq was invaded and their government toppled, the world (traders, experts, everyone) had reason to doubt that Iraq would be able to sustain the value of the dinar, and the value of the dinar dropped. End of story.
Something extremely predictable happens when a stock or a currency or anything suddenly starts losing value... it causes panic. Herd mentality kicks in, and it sweeps like a tidal wave. People selling to avoid loss are willing to take losses to avoid bigger losses, and the avalanche builds momentum. Sometimes a stock or commodity will be annihilated, or sometimes it will just sink to a level that nobody believed was possible just months before.
This happened to the Dinar.
The same thing happens on the opposite side, of course. When people see something rising in value, they predictably want to catch that wave and the momentum will build the other way. People see other people making profits and want to join in, and again the herd mentality can push a stock or a currency or anything else that is being traded to levels that it shouldn't actually attain.
Eventually the markets will stabilize, as they always do. In Iraq's case, this is exactly why I lean towards a pegged RV rate opposed to a complete free float on the market. It will be easier for them to control a major change if they also control the fluctuation, and they stand to make enough profits on an RV that they will be better served by taking the profits on a fixed spread rather than trying to "catch it at the top". A pegged rate, at least initially, will allow them to control and maintain a higher rate.
They are doing all this with their actions in their government, and the price of oil going up at a steady and fairly predictable rate gives them the ability to create a solid path to higher profitability.
Everything we’re looking for!
Fingers crossed for some HCL news (SOON), and when it happens I'll be sending out that message.
By Adam Montana
Good morning all!
Just a quick note this morning, because I'm bubbling with excitement over the recent progress and feel compelled to get something up here.
No, we don't have an HCL... and no, there has been no RV announcement.
But, boy howdy, talk about tracking!
Iraq, the CBI, President Trump, and the Easter Bunny all have something in common: NONE of them are going to give us a specific "heads up" when Iraq is about to pull the trigger on a ReValuation of the Iraqi Dinar.
Our job here is to be informed, engaged, and prepared.
OIL is over my forecasted/predicted/anticipated mark of $60. A member pointed out last week that the benchmark price I chose is WTI, which is not necessarily "Iraqi Oil", and to be fair it has been some time since I explained why I chose WTI as a reference point. Quite simply, WTI is a commonly used price that can be used to reasonably gauge activity across various markets. Since actual daily Iraqi production and sales are not readily available, it makes sense to track another index or marker that has a more reliable report available.
As of this writing, oil (WTI) has surpassed $60 and is on a steady pace (slow and steady wins the race!) upwards.
This isn't the only thing that matters, of course. The ReValuation (RV) of the Iraqi Dinar isn't hinged on any one item by any means! It is a culmination of many moving parts, and OIL is only one of them...
... but OIL is a big piece, and it's performing exactly as we we want.
I'll post a more in depth update later, but one other item is on the news - BTC.
I wouldn't get super excited about it, but the gains on BTC this week are definitely worth looking at. More on that later as well.
As always, GO RVVVVVVV!!!! The stars are aligning.
More to come later.