Popular Post KristiD Posted December 20, 2018 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 I like Breitling because he's a "just the facts" kind of guy and I therefore respect what he has to say. He said earlier this year that he thinks if oil prices continue to stay low (and he didn't say how long but he did mention months), it will put pressure on Iraq to RV because that's one of the few ways they can make up the shortfall. Recently, he posted an audio where he quoted the Wall Street Journal as saying Iraq needs $55/barrel to breakeven and anything below that means they're losing moning. As I write this, oil is at $46 - so today, Iraq is losing $9/barrel. And of course, Iraq doesn't just want to get to $55, they want it to be much higher than because the higher it is, the more money Iraq makes. Since 90% of Iraq's economy is based on oil, this is getting pretty serious for Iraq. Below, investment adviser Lance Roberts presents his reasons why he believes oil prices will remain low. If Breitling is correct that lower oil prices will put pressure on Iraq to RV to make up the shortfall (and I believe he is), Robert's belief that oil prices will remain low is really good news for us in terms pressuring Iraq to RV sooner rather than later. GOOOOOOO RV! Why The Secular Bear Market In Oil Prices Remains In 2013, I began warning about the risk to oil prices due to the ongoing imbalances between global supply and demand. Those warnings fell on deaf ears as it was believed that “oil prices could only go higher from here.” It didn’t take long for those predictions to play out. In May of 2014, I wrote: “While it is likely oil prices could get a bit of a bump from a decline in the U.S. dollar, ultimately it will come down to the fundamentals longer term. It is quite clear that the speculative rise in oil prices due to the ‘fracking miracle’ has come to its inglorious, but expected conclusion…It is quite apparent that some lessons are simply never learned. “ Of course, as with all things, particularly when it comes to commodities, it doesn’t take long for speculation to once again grab hold and drive prices higher in the short-term despite the long-term fundamental problems which still exist. In September of 2017, I wrote a piece reviewing those fundamentals. “I have been getting a tremendous number of emails as of late asking if the latest rally in oil prices, and related energy stocks, is sustainable or is it another ‘trap’ as has been witnessed previously. As regular readers know, we exited oil and gas stocks back in mid-2014 and have remained out of the sector for technical and fundamental reasons for the duration. While there have been some opportunistic trading setups, the technical backdrop has remained decidedly bearish.” The conclusion was not what most were hoping for. “While there is hope the production cuts will continue into 2018, a bulk of the current price gain has likely already been priced in. With oil prices once again overbought on a monthly basis, the risk of disappointment is substantial.” Well, here we are wrapping up 2018 and the prices of both energy-related shares and oil have been disappointing. The expected decline in oil prices is more important than just the relative decline in share prices of energy-related stocks. As I wrote previously, energy prices are highly correlated to economic activity. To wit: “Oil is a highly sensitive indicator relative to the expansion or contraction of the economy. Given that oil is consumed in virtually every aspect of our lives, from the food we eat to the products and services we buy, the demand side of the equation is a tell-tale sign of economic strength or weakness. The chart below combines interest rates, inflation, and GDP into one composite indicator to provide a clearer comparison to oil prices. One important note is that oil tends to trade along a pretty defined trend…until it doesn’t. Given that the oil industry is very manufacturing and production intensive, breaks of price trends tend to be liquidation events which have a negative impact on the manufacturing and CapEx spending inputs into the GDP calculation.” “As such, it is not surprising that sharp declines in oil prices have been coincident with downturns in economic activity, a drop in inflation, and a subsequent decline in interest rates.” Since then, the price of oil has declined further as economic weakness continues to gain traction globally. Despite the occasional rally, it’s hard to see the outlook for oil is encouraging on both fundamental and technical levels. The charts for WTI remain bearish, while the fundamentals remain basically “Economics 101: too much supply, too little demand.” The parallel with 2014 is there if you want to see it. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-the-secular-bear-market-in-oil-prices-remains/ 14 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Bean Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 +1 KristiD. And thanks for not bring in the usual BS like someone else in the 'rumors' section. I tend to trust info from Breitling as he is mostly 'news' based, not rumor and pie-in-the-sky cr@p. I want to believe that 2019 will be a moving point for Iraq and the dinar. Their people and their country need it, and they're not going anywhere without change. Happy Holidays to you and all of DV. 🎅 1 1 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
climber7 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 (edited) we need a section dedicated to Breitling on this thread to cut through all the other b.s. call it B.O. for Breitling Opinion haha Edited December 20, 2018 by climber7 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freedomwish Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 This article is better to me than to focus on taking in a whiskey shot prior on reading Luigi's wacky posts.......then, taking in 4 whiskey shots after reading Luigi's wacky posts. For real lol 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 I read this also a while back and have been watching the price of Crude Dropping. At one time Breitling was in the $55.00 PB Price range to get Iraq to have to do something......Now at $46.00 and still nothing. There was a post a while back here asking about Oil Prices and the effect on the IQD and I posted back then I don't think it has much at all to do with getting them it get something done in regards to a RI/RV or what ever the Guru's are calling it these days. Karsten 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 When oil drops as much as it has this year you can usually count on a market going up over 20% the next year. That’s just a stat but it makes sense. Lower oil prices are anti inflationary and is like a raise for most Americans. I don’t think you will see any RV with oil under 46, just my opinion. 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Thanks Karsten for taking the time to post this. I like Breitling too. Always keeps you thinking. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 51 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said: Thanks Karsten for taking the time to post this. I like Breitling too. Always keeps you thinking. Chuck, I like Breitling as well......He/They seems grounded unlike the Blue Couch and other Guru's.....Honestly I don't think anyone knows if/when this deal will pop if ever. Breitling seems to be to only one putting info out there and not expecting to make money back in one way or another. I posted a while back if anyone thought the Lame Stream Media would cover any sort of RI/RV and only one person chimed in and said it would be a big deal. Let's just all stay positive and hope we all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Stay safe and keep your families safe as well.. Karsten 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Thanks Karsten, a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your family. I do not think the main stream media will cover it. Maybe someone like Cramer on CNBC because he addressed awhile back. I am good with it. I am planning on disappearing and change my name to Fiona. Well, have a safe holiday to you and yours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
climber7 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 hours ago, ChuckFinley said: change my name to Fiona BURN NOTICE!! Miss that show 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, climber7 said: BURN NOTICE!! Miss that show I think I have all of the series on DVD around here somewhere. Sure wish it was still going. Karsten 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theseus Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) On 12/20/2018 at 2:47 PM, Freedomwish said: .......then, taking in 4 whiskey shots after reading Luigi's wacky posts. interesting that luigi gets lambasted here fr his wacky posts but yet in another thread those same posts appear along with others by another member. it goes to wonder why those are being allowed there and not placed into this thread. Yet very very few comments in those posts. At least luigi tries to have some resemblance of fun to them. Edited December 22, 2018 by Theseus 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Theseus said: interesting that luigi gets lambasted here fr his wacky posts but yet in another thread those same posts appear along with others by another member. it goes to wonder why those are being allowed there and not placed into this thread. Yet very very few comments in those posts. At least luigi tries to have some resemblance of fun to them. I would have to agree....Luigi takes a beating and it is in the rumor section and of his opinion to post.....We have a couple of others who I wont name but they get down right ugly and hateful and no one cares about the BS they post. I think these 2 have run more people off this forum than Luigi ever will and in their own way they seem Proud. I read the other forum and now and then post here any new crap about the VND in a thread just to keep it going. Luigi, go for it and keep it up, Ron Scarpa, same to you....One day someone will get something right...... Until them Life Is To Short To Worry About little Things That Piss You Off For no Reason. Merry Christmas, God Bless you all, May the Worthless Government Shut Down and Fire all the Non Essential Government Employees....What the hell are they doing anyhow? Karsten 2 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KristiD Posted December 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 On 12/20/2018 at 7:40 PM, Karsten said: I read this also a while back and have been watching the price of Crude Dropping. At one time Breitling was in the $55.00 PB Price range to get Iraq to have to do something......Now at $46.00 and still nothing. Breitling has outright said it's not about the price of oil dropping and then suddenly the RV will happen. He speculates the price will probably have to stay low for months (though he didn't say how many months). But here's the thing - if you follow the logic, he does make sense. If (as the Wall Street Journal reported), it costs Iraq $55 to extract and sell 1 barrel of oil, but they can only sell that barrel for $45 (the price as of Friday - it doesn't change over the weekend), then Iraq is obviously losing money - $10/barrel. Iraq exports close to $3.5 million barrels of oil a month. They are in serious trouble if they are losing $10 barrel. They can reduce output some (and they did in November by 85,000 barrels), but 90% of their economy is based on oil so they cannot just shut down their oil operations and wait for prices to go up - that would be like shutting down most of their country. Most of their people work in the oil industry or industries related to it (trucking, etc) and they can't just temporarily lay them all off. So while Iraq can absorb the loss for a while, they cannot continue to absorb that loss indefinitely. And that doesn't even address the fact that if they're selling oil for less than it costs them to produce it, they have zero profits with which to continue to pay for government operations. So Breitling's theory is that if oil prices REMAIN low, one of the easiest ways Iraq can compensate for that is by increasing the value of their currency. Iraq sells their oil in the petro dollar (USD), so if they RV their dinar at say $.10 then that would give them 100 times more purchasing power (the dinar is roughly 1/10 of a penny = $.001). We all believe that Iraq does intend to revalue their currency at one point, and hopefully that point in time is not too far out. So right now, if Iraq is practically bleeding money since the price of oil is so low (and lets not forget that Trump is pressuring his friends like Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices low), then it makes sense that Iraq may choose to speed up their timetable for the RV. That is what Breitling is saying. And to me, his reasoning makes perfect sense, so I agree with him. Yes, it's just a theory, but one that makes sense. It may or may not work out that way because maybe oil prices will go back up soon or maybe Iraq has another way to make up for the loss. But this is the RUMORS section after all, and as far as rumors go, I think this is one of the better ones. 1 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Bean Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, KristiD said: 90% of their economy is based on oil More greenies for you KristiD. Good info and a guestimate. The GOI announced their budget for 2019 stating oil revenue accounts for 99% of income. They're in a real pickle if the price per barrel stays low. Add in the BILLIONS of USD siphoned off the last 12 years by Maliki and his greedy hoard. Yet they continue to have gatherings asking the rest of the world to bail them out. Step up, Iraq. It's time to put on your big boy pants. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChuckFinley Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 15 hours ago, climber7 said: BURN NOTICE!! Miss that show 14 hours ago, Karsten said: I think I have all of the series on DVD around here somewhere. Sure wish it was still going. Karsten With guys on that. Love the show and a few things encomen. Tried to pick it up on Netflix or Hulu but no such luck. Also liked White Collor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freedomwish Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:06 PM, Theseus said: interesting that luigi gets lambasted here fr his wacky posts but yet in another thread those same posts appear along with others by another member. it goes to wonder why those are being allowed there and not placed into this thread. Yet very very few comments in those posts. At least luigi tries to have some resemblance of fun to them. Bruh, I'm gonna' have another whiskey shot - to me, it just helps reading Luigi's posts that much more fun, entertaining and simply, just running along with this Dinar sh*t until one day this thing pops......then you and I will celebrate till our hearts content trying to get Adam and Paperboy drunk until DinarThugs joins in..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsten Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Newshound Guru Breitling Everyone knows I don’t do date and rate but people [ask] what’s the season [approximate time]? The reason people are asking me that…the reason that question has been so heavy lately is because you start looking at the price per barrel. It’s getting into that range where it’s a threat to Iraq. That means you guys are paying attention! That makes me so happy…These guys are getting to the breaking point. Bingo…Thank God for us that we’ve invested in a currency that is Iraq’s weapon. That is their savior to add value to their currency. But it’s a two pronged attack for Iraq. Newshound Guru Breitling They [Iraq] need to do two things with the oil prices going down. They need business and international investments coming into Iraq. Well they’ve set that stage up for the last five or six years…and they haven’t stopped. They’re still trying to do it today…the other part is if they are not making money selling energy…what currency are they using to make money off that energy? The U.S. dollar. If they are not bring in any U.S. dollars that cuts them off at the knees right? They need to add value to their currency. That’s exactly what they’re talking about. [Post 2 of 2) Karsten 2 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
new york kevin Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Here you go guys. Breitling had this attached to his 12/24/18 message, so it fits here also . Geo Politics ladies and gents. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theseus Posted December 26, 2018 Report Share Posted December 26, 2018 On 12/24/2018 at 6:10 PM, new york kevin said: Here you go guys. Breitling had this attached to his 12/24/18 message, so it fits here also . Geo Politics ladies and gents. Hey it's a miracle! Little Dicky is still alive! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
new york kevin Posted December 26, 2018 Report Share Posted December 26, 2018 Yup. He succeeded in his battle with what the bottle? Redemption is for all in Jesus's name I pray. Amen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artitech Posted December 27, 2018 Report Share Posted December 27, 2018 I like Breitling too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KristiD Posted January 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 1-5-2019 Newshound Guru Breitling Iraq can not function…they need $54 per barrel to survive…they’re telling us…in two years it’s going to be $25 per barrel. That means they’re in the negative. They need $54 to stay even. That’s just to make it. To survive…They are going to be below that by half…it makes me happy cause you and I are sitting on their currency. What are they going to do devalue it more? No. They are going to add value and you and I are sitting on it. You should be happy. It’s real…that’s the way it works. No body can get around this math…You have a hundred years of how countries devalued and valued their currencies and Iraq is no different. They are going to be forced to do it. Nothing can stop them from doing it. That’s what’s so neat about what’s coming up. 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPatriotsFan1 Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 40 minutes ago, KristiD said: 1-5-2019 Newshound Guru Breitling Iraq can not function…they need $54 per barrel to survive…they’re telling us…in two years it’s going to be $25 per barrel. That means they’re in the negative. They need $54 to stay even. That’s just to make it. To survive…They are going to be below that by half…it makes me happy cause you and I are sitting on their currency. What are they going to do devalue it more? No. They are going to add value and you and I are sitting on it. You should be happy. It’s real…that’s the way it works. No body can get around this math…You have a hundred years of how countries devalued and valued their currencies and Iraq is no different. They are going to be forced to do it. Nothing can stop them from doing it. That’s what’s so neat about what’s coming up. I like the way he thinks, when the dinar was $3.21 approx imately it was 1989-1990 the price of oil was around ...... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitcher Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 Thanks for sharing the vid new york kevin. I worked for Exxon in the 70’s and we knew the oil was there but we needed the technology to get it out of the ground. It’s about time we stopped giving our enemies the cash they get from oil to disrupt the ME and world peace. Drill baby drill!!!! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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