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By Adam Montana
Good morning, and Happy Wednesday!
Warning: This Weekly Update is coming in like a lamb and going out like a lion.
Before we get into it, I want to thank you all for being the best dang group of people I've ever been associated with. Please know that I never take you for granted, and time after time you impress me with your heart and character - as evidenced time and again, in particular by the incredible outpouring of love, respect, and goodness in last week's update.
Cheers to you all, God bless, and thank you.
Lots of talk lately about the new PM (KaZAMi-Kablammie-Kademi-KaJustRValready!), exchange rate talk, the US pulling out of Iraqi bases, and of course - "more".
There was a time when there wasn't much "more", but lately things are picking up steam - Parliament blazing through tasks, the newly appointed PM seems to almost have entered the scene un-noticed. What I mean by that is the last couple PMs were met with fierce opposition, riots, and outcry. I don't think for a minute that the Iraqi people are done fighting or they have lost their spirit - the fact that Kazammie is still in office, with no reports of (major) riots or protests, is an indicator that he could be "the one".
A key part of the "more" is the Iraqi Budget, which is looming on the horizon. The Budget is a big deal, but do NOT expect to see an RV rate in it - in fact, I place very little importance on the Budget numbers. What IS important and relevant is a successful conclusion and announcement of the Budget. That can only happen when the bobbleheads in Parliament actually meet, pull out their pens, and sign the agreement. When that happens, it shows that Iraq is doing something positive, moving forward, and clearing the table for bigger items.
The fact that Oil is returning to normal and sustainable price levels... well, that's just gravy.
I'm not the only person who looks at that chart and feels hungry!
One other component I think we need to keep on the radar is still the HCL. While we are seeing a lot of positive news on many other fronts, the HCL seems... suspiciously quiet.
Over the last few weeks, I've been noticing a trend. The news pieces that I am privileged to share and break down for you all have not been the "simple and sometimes boring" topics that have plagued us for months at a time in the recent past.
On the contrary, I've been finding that much of the news and the key parts of this complicated web of information are challenging to piece together. It's led to a few "doozies" lately... the recent post on the Iraqi Budget is a good example. That one took a lot of editing and deleting and starting over to break it down into a manageable post that wouldn't make people's eyes glaze over.
Based on the responses from the community, I feel it was worth the time.
As the year 2020 is progressing, I am seeing more and more information that is stitching together in very complex ways. It makes my "job" a bit harder, but also more satisfying... and it will be even more satisfying when all of these things meet up at the end.
The HCL (Hydro Carbon Law) is extremely important. It covers a few things, perhaps most importantly is the money-sharing arrangement that it provides. I may do a longer explanation on this soon, but for this post I'll just state that Oil, the Transportation of Oil, the price of Oil, the intrinsic connection between Oil and Iraq's economy... this is a short list of why the HCL is important.
The Middle East as a whole is a major producer of oil. Anything that is produced, and sold, needs to be transported to the consumer. While Iraq only has a small piece of the land that accesses the Gulf of Persia, they do have a sizable and important piece of the land that connects many paths that Oil must cross, and the HCL is vital to forward progress.
Hang on to your seat as you read through this next bit:
The recent Iran-Turkey pipeline incident, courtesy of the PKK (Kurds), is certainly going to have an affect... particularly since Turkey seems to not want anything to do with fixing it. This incident hurts Iran more than anyone, benefits Iraq, and Turkey comes out better as well - both politically, financially, and in terms of future positioning.
That also comes back full circle to the HCL - eliminating Iran from the equation is a benefit to Iraq, and the HCL will be used to ensure that the Kurds get a larger portion of these benefits.
Once again, when you look at the big picture it starts to make sense "why" the RV didn't happen yet. The dominoes have been being placed, one at a time, and the HCL just might be the force that starts them moving.
I encourage everyone to read the links I posted in the above text. Piece that all together in your head, and get in VIP, because things are about to start happening REALLY FAST.
Best regards, all! Have a fantastic day and stay safe.
P.S. If you hadn't noticed, I've been linking the relevant articles a lot lately instead of quoting them. This might be a little more work on your part to completely understand my posts, but I've received a lot of positive feedback from members as well. Feel free to chime in and let me know which you prefer!
P.P.S. Our Powerball Pool is here. Get in!
By Adam Montana
Happy Wednesday everyone!
I hate pushing these weekly updates back even an hour longer than necessary, but I'm slammed with obligations today.... which is unfortunate because I have a half written update that I'm enjoying writing!
Feel free to take advantage of the "Reply" button below and post any questions you have, and I will continue later tonight or tomorrow morning.
***Update: Weekly chat ended up on the second page HERE.
By Adam Montana
Good morning good morning!
Wednesday, 13th of May - Year of the 'Rona. The year we saw historic losses in the financial markets, the first time OIL ever (ever) hit negative numbers, and the world changed in ways some of us never believed would happen.
Everywhere we go now, things are slightly-to-a-lot different.
Plexiglass sneeze guards at every store register, shower curtains between tables at restaurants in our future, sporting events without fans, and this is only the start.
With unemployment at the worst since the Depression, possibly worse to come, and the government printing money like... well, like they usually do, just a little faster. The truth is that all of the events we are witnessing were bound to happen eventually - the "pandemic" simply expedited some of it.
The US debt column has been on a steady incline, and that was not going to reverse. A world where we have a "responsible government" and a "balanced budget" is nothing more than wishful thinking.
The good news?
It doesn't matter.
I mean that. It simply does not matter. We can complain all we want, but since the US Dollar went off the gold standard and became full fiat, we have been playing with pretend money, valued by nothing more than our imaginations.
Yes, we can buy actual food with our dollars. We can trade these same dollars for a roof over our head and a vehicle to get us places.
If we had looked at our crystal ball last year and invested in Netflix, or shorted travel related stocks, we'd be sitting fairly pretty! The interesting thing about wealth, and power, and luxury and money and toys and tools is that they are never really "lost" - they just get transfered, in a never ending shell game. There will always be winners, and losers, and much of that is decided on where you are when the dice are rolled.
Iraq is no different. The currency of Iraq is no different than the currency of any other fiat based country - it's made up, yet the uses are real.
And unlike COVID19... we are fully prepared for this one! (At least most of us are prepared - are you?)
In the news:
Iraqi Prime Minister Kazemi (RV-KAZAMMY!!!!!) is on a roll, moving things forward and acting in every way we want!
In years past, not much was accomplished during Ramadan.
This year, the Year of the 'Rona and much more - that does not appear to be the case!
We are currently in the midst of Ramadan, yet Kazemi seems dead set on seating his cabinet before the end of the holiday. And, it actually looks like it's going to happen. That link was from four days ago, and then yesterday we see PM al-Kazemi reconfirming his commitment to wrapping this portion up in "the next few days".
There is more, of course! There always is - I could spend hours tagging and writing and expanding on all of the positive momentum the Iraqi Dinar has right now, and it would just be a start.
Fast work by Kazemi is awesome. Iraq having a Prime Minister stay seated and continue to impress us is an outstanding report. This could never have happened overnight, but the way things are going - I dare say "suddenly" is looming closer and closer.
Bitcoin is in an interesting spot - the halvening happened, and BTC is currently hovering near $10,000. In my opinion, there is still time to get in while it's still cheap. You CAN buy a fraction of a bitcoin, which means you can put $100 or $1000 into it. Coinbase is an easy option.
VIP is still open. You can NOT buy a fraction of a VIP package but at $49 for 3 months, you can get in and be prepared for about 54 pennies a day. It's the smart move, get in now!
The Weekly Powerball Pool is here - join us!
As always - be safe, be happy, be free, and GOOOO RRRRVVVV!!!!!
By Adam Montana
Happy Wednesday, gang!
This week seems to be off to a great start!
The COVID ('Rona) scare is on the decline, but now we have Murder Hornets, and... will it ever end?!
No. So let's move on, live life, love our families, and be happy.
On to the topics!
DJIA, S&P, GOLD, pretty much everything is up, including OIL... and that is music to our ears!
Over in Iraq, we have a "still waters run deep" situation... do you remember all the ruckus that was in the news during the short durations of the previous Prime Ministers?
I'm not hearing the same level of noise right now.
Al-Kazemi, the current figurehead for the position, seems to just be on cruise control. He's zooming down the political highway and there doesn't seem to be much getting in his way. Check out this thread for the latest developments:
Of course there is talk of disruption, but what's not being publicized is the actual progress - and there is plenty!
It gets better:
It is nice read something like that, but what they are NOT saying is much more important than what they ARE saying.
Things are actually really good!
In spite of my current optimism, we are at a critical point - things may turn in our favor quickly, and if they are going to turn right now... it is going to happen quickly, probably in the middle of our night, and without warning.
They aren't going to give us too much of a head start, so we wait patiently and vigilantly.
I'm ready to send emails and text messages!
Last week we had a thread in the VIP section for member feedback, and it's given me a bit to work on. I'll be sending out some VIP emails as that progresses.
A few more notes before I wrap this up for now:
1. Ever hear of Kim Clement? Check this out!
2. Hi, thanks for being a member here at DinarVets. Be sure to enter the Weekly Powerball Pool!
3. One of the responses in that VIP thread made me think about a tip on using the forums here - the "tags" are pretty handy! For example, you can find a listing of all of my Weekly updates by going into the "Chat Logs" forum and clicking any of the "tags" that say "Adam Montana Weekly".
4. Bitcoin is scheduled for a big event... "the halvening", coming in approximately 8 days. This is historically a big deal:
That's it... for now.
Be well, stay safe, and GOOO RRRRVVVV!!!!
By Adam Montana
Good afternoon and Happy Wednesday!
Day 6jillion7bazillion876,9876,350,876 of the 'Rona lockdown. You would think, based on the initial presentation of the pandemic, that 50% of the world would be dead or at least partially zombified by now.
We would think that poor countries with little access to health care and large scale poverty would be almost completely devastated by now, due to lack of masks and life saving governor's orders to stay home.
Countries like Iraq should certainly be wiped out and pleading for mercy, perhaps unloading oil tankers into parking lots and using the VLCCs for storing dead bodies. And certainly during Ramadan, nothing would be happening that could be counted as progress.
Especially with OIL taking the huge hit that it took recently!
That is not the case.
See, for example, here. And here. And here. And here. And here. And here. And... need I go on?
Iraq is not only "fine", they are more than fine! They have weathered a monster hit to the price of oil without lowering their rate. They are surviving an unbelievable shakeup of their government, and tomorrow (Thursday) to May 8 look to be key dates for finalizing some more of that critical work.
Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Coronavirus was a "hoax". On the contrary, it has been devastating for some... and the economic damage may never be fully calculated.
But the world did not end. We will move past all of this. And the Iraqi Dinar is still a very real item that holds a massive amount of potential.
That's my message for today! I hope you are all well, safe, happy, and as healthy as possible.
We have a great thread going right now in the VIP section (here) and one post in particular seemed like it needed to be included in the Weekly Update. If you're in VIP and you didn't comment in that thread, go check it out!
Iran is a major factor in the current price of the Iraqi Dinar, I don't think anyone will disagree with that. I'm certain they do have a large amount of Iraqi Dinar, just like many other nations (including the US). And when this is actually "done", it may be that Iran and Iraq are at major odds, even flat out war, as a result of it all when we reach the next stage.
The Middle East will always be at war. That's not something that keeps me up at night.
To answer your final question - and probably the most important one in the post - I don't believe that Iran's possession of Iraqi Dinar will prevent Iraq from raising the value. It may impact the "how", but not the "if".
Fine questions, sir.
(As a result of that thread, I also posted a special VIP Q&A thread here. I'll be attending to that one on an ongoing basis for an unknown period of time. Join in!)
That's it for this afternoon's Weekly Update!