Fact Check: Trump is Right About Puerto Rico, Critics Manipulating Hurricane Maria Death ‘Estimates’

[yota691]

Fact Check: Trump is Right About Puerto Rico, Critics Manipulating Hurricane Maria Death ‘Estimates’

  Ricardo Arduengo / AFP / Getty

 

13 Sep 20186240

Democrats and the media have been pounding President Donald Trump over the past few days, as Hurricane Florence nears the Carolinas, over his alleged insensitivity to deaths in Puerto Rico last year from Hurricane Maria.

On Thursday morning, President Trump pushed back on Twitter, alleging that Democrats had inflated the death toll “in order to make me look as bad as possible.”

That led to more criticism, with the Associated Press accusing Trump of making claims “without evidence.”

But Trump is correct.

His opponents — including the media — have strained for more than a year to turn Hurricane Maria into his version of Hurricane Katrina, the devastating 2005 storm that prompted criticism of President George W. Bush’s response — even though state and local authorities had been far worse — and foreshadowed a Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006.

Leading the charge was CNN, which made a special effort to link Hurricane Maria in 2017 to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and made a temporary media sensation of San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, who accused the Trump administration of neglect.

However, the media’s effort at the time was frustrated by several factors. First, experts praised the federal government’s response to Hurricane Maria, which posed special challenges because Puerto Rico is so far from the mainland U.S.

Second, Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló himself praised the federal government’s response: ““The president and the administration, every time we’ve asked them to execute, they’ve executed quickly,” he told Fox News in September 2017.

Third, Puerto Rico was already something of a disaster before the hurricane hit, thanks to mismanagement by the territory’s government that led to a debt crisis in recent years. (Mayor Cruz herself is reportedly under FBI investigation for corruption.)

However, Trump’s critics did not give up. Over the past several months, they have attempted to cite several new studies that created new estimates of the “real” death toll of Hurricane Maria — based on statistical models, not on actual death counts.

Many studies addressed a real concern that the Puerto Rican government lacked the competence to do an accurate death count, but much of the media hype around the results was clearly motivated by the attempt to damage the Trump administration.

The Washington Post noted just some of the studies as of June 2018 (original links):

• The New York Times calculated 1,052 deaths through October.
• The Center for Investigative Reporting calculated 985 through October.
• University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez professors calculated 822, with a 95 percent confidence range that the total was somewhere between 605 and 1,039.
• Pennsylvania State University professors calculated excess deaths of about 500 in September, or a total of 1,085 if the same pattern held in October. That estimate was based on six weeks of mortality records.
• A Latino USA analysis, using updated data from Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, calculated 1,194 excess deaths in September and October.

The Post noted that the new estimates hovered around the 1,000 mark.

Then, in June, a Harvard study published in the New England Journal of Medicine estimated the number of deaths from Hurricane Maria at 4,645 instead of the official figure of 64. The researchers had conducted a survey and extrapolated the results — an extremely sloppy methodology.

The number was highly inflammatory. Puerto Rican opponents of the president cited it to accuse him of “genocide.” Much of the media hyped those claims: the caption that accompanies the Getty/AFP photograph above reads: “Hurricane Maria, which pummeled Puerto Rico in September 2017, is likely responsible for the deaths of more than 4,600 people, some 70 times more than official estimates, US researchers said Tuesday.”

Even the Post was skeptical of the absurdly high estimate: “This is not a verified number, unlike body counts in wars. The Harvard study offers only an estimate – a midpoint along a broad range of possibilities. It is not based on death records, only estimates of deaths from people who were interviewed in a survey.”

Last month, a new study was produced by George Washington University that estimated the “excess mortality” from Hurricane Maria over a six-month period at 2,975 within a 95% confidence interval of 2,658-3,290 “excess” deaths.

This was the second-highest estimate after the faulty Harvard study, and was based on a statistical model that subtracted the number of people who theoretically should have died over the same period from the number of people who actually died during that time.

It is also a rather useless way of comparing death tolls, because in order to evaluate the relative scale of Hurricane Maria, the same method would have to be used to measure other natural disasters, likely increasing their estimated death tolls as well.

The media reported the new estimate as if it were an actual confirmed death toll — with CNN taking care to note that the new number was released near the anniversary of Katrina. The Puerto Rican governor, under heavy political pressure due to the slow pace of the island’s recovery, officially revised the death toll to match the estimate.

That gave the media an excuse to throw out science and statistics, and to report the 2.975 number as an established fact — even though it was just an estimate based on a statistical model, and three times higher than all but one of the previous estimates.

The AP reported earlier this week that “3,000 people died in Puerto Rico” in Hurricane Maria — as if it were a proven fact. It did not indicate that the number was simply one estimate among many, and that its evidence was a controversial statistical model.

On Thursday, the AP — with a touch of chutzpah — accused the president of stating “without evidence” that the “Puerto Rico hurricane death count is [a] plot by Democrats to make him look bad.”

(Update: National Public Radio weighed in to accuse Trump of “falsely” claiming Democrats had inflated the numbers.)

Setting aside the AP’s odd effort to “fact-check” an opinion, the evidence is ample that the Democrats — and much of the media — did exactly what Trump accused them of doing.

Their goal, and the goal of Democrats who are hyping probable outliers as established facts, is to take down the Republican Party in the 2018 midterm elections by linking Trump with Bush’s alleged failures in Hurricane Katrina.

[Shabibilicious]

Hey Donald....do you know the names of those 6 to 18 dead Puerto Rican American citizens you're hanging your egotistical argument on?  

 

GO RV, then BV

[8th ID]

If 3,000 people died because of Hurricane Maria, then why are we just not hearing about it a year later.

This is just more fake news. The liberal left will stop at nothing to try and manipulate the uninformed and lie about the President who was duly elected.

Have you seen any news on the Republican congressional candidate that almost got stabbed the other day in Kalifornia? NO, you haven't. Don't take this wrong, I am for the 1st Amendment and free speech, but this goes beyond that. It should be dealt with accordingly!

[Shabibilicious]

Fox News Hosts Blast Trump For Puerto Rico Remarks 

 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fox-news-hosts-blast-trump-184832969.html

 

“Outnumbered” co-host Harris Faulkner said Trump’s claims on Twitter “cheapens us as a country.” ....pretty much says it all.

 

GO RV, then BV

[Karsten]

The liberals there were claiming the Trump Admin never sent any aid either and just left them to starve.

 

Strange how they found roll off dumpster food of pallet of food and medical supplies and recently they uncovered 20,000pallets of bottled water hidden on an abandoned runway.....

 

Now those in charge are going to jail for Corruption and they were all anti Trumpers.

 

Karsten

Edited September 14, 2018 by Karsten

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

50 minutes ago, Karsten said:

 

Now those in charge are going to jail for Corruption and they were all anti Trumpers.

 

***///

 

Excellent practice for cleaning up the swamp !  

Start with these sleazy, slimy little worms then move on up to the D.C. swamp monsters !  

 

.

[Shabibilicious]

 

GO RV, then BV  

[Karsten]

Karsten

[8th ID]

 

Shabs, this is just for you.   Show the proof that 3,000 died. There is none...face the facts!

[Synopsis]

20 hours ago, yota691 said:

Fact Check: Trump is Right About Puerto Rico, Critics Manipulating Hurricane Maria Death ‘Estimates’

 

4 hours ago, Karsten said:

The liberals there were claiming the Trump Admin never sent any aid either and just left them to starve.

 

Strange how they found roll off dumpster food of pallet of food and medical supplies and recently they uncovered 20,000pallets of bottled water hidden on an abandoned runway.....

 

Now those in charge are going to jail for Corruption and they were all anti Trumpers.

 

Karsten

 

3 hours ago, SgtFuryUSCZ said:

***///

 

Excellent practice for cleaning up the swamp !  

Start with these sleazy, slimy little worms then move on up to the D.C. swamp monsters !  

 

.

 

Oh, Oh, a Red Rubymeister(s) with the Snowflake and Buttercup Idiot Brigade Volunteer Forces gave You each a Red Ruby Citation for "Display Of Intellectual Speed And Power" for factual  and substantive posts!!!

 

                                 

 

              

 

This is all the Elitist Socialist Liberal Leftists can do to distort the TRUTH with fake and made up numbers. The disaster relief resources WERE provided WITHOUT a DOUBT. So, how come they are not identifying and pursuing the local officials who at least bungled their responsibilities in an epic fashion. The local officials and locals have to help themselves to the disaster relief provided and work to rectify the infrastructure, homes, and businesses without being solely dependent on Federal Assistance.

 

bun·gle

ˈbəNGɡəl/

verb

past tense: bungled; past participle: bungled

1. carry out (a task) clumsily or incompetently, leading to failure or an unsatisfactory outcome.

   "she had bungled every attempt to help"

   synonyms:

   mishandle, mismanage, mess up, spoil, ruin, blunder; More

   • make or be prone to making many mistakes.

     "the work of a bungling amateur"

     synonyms:

     incompetent, blundering, amateurish, inept, unskillful, maladroit, clumsy, klutzy, awkward, bumbling;  informalham-handed, ham-fisted "the work of a bungling amateur"

Well, OK, we didn't mention the potential corruption of the local officials, locals, and media associated with Maria. Maybe a better place to look first.

 

 

 

Hey, I gave You All Purple Trophies. I hope You All don't mind!!! 

 

Have a Good Weekend You All!!! 

 

Edited September 14, 2018 by Synopsis

[Karsten]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/ny-news-puerto-rico-mayor-arrested-corruption-20180707-story.html

 

Karsten

[caz1104]

8 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

Fox News Hosts Blast Trump For Puerto Rico Remarks 

 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fox-news-hosts-blast-trump-184832969.html

 

“Outnumbered” co-host Harris Faulkner said Trump’s claims on Twitter “cheapens us as a country.” ....pretty much says it all.

 

GO RV, then BV

Hey Shabs

On CNN last nite I believe, they had three of their biggest nite stars (sic) , Cuomo ( I'm the greatest - just ask me), Don (no clue) Lemon, & Anderson ( I'm pretending to be listening) Cooper  on at the same time (split screen). All three were in NC ( why weren't they in FLA or PR?  hmmmm) and their discussion was mainly about whether FEMA & the WH would do an adequate job with Florence or not.....seriously they couldn't even wait to see  what transpired before digging at TRUMP. As I've said many times I'm not a Trump fan on a personal level...but my god they( MSM) have got to start acting responsibly and cool there "plain as day" hatred....another just do ur friggin job....report honestly & un bias....pipedream I know

Edited September 14, 2018 by caz1104

[yota691]

Massive stockpile of bottled water found in Puerto Rico a year after Maria

By Tamar Lapin

September 12, 2018 | 9:38am |

 

Modal Trigger

Abdiel Santana

 

Hundreds of thousands of water bottles meant for victims of Hurricane Maria are still sitting at a Puerto Rico airport — nearly a year after the deadly storm, according to a report.

A photo showing the bottles in boxes and covered in a blue tarp on a runway in Ceiba was shared widely on social media Tuesday evening.

“Although you don’t believe it… almost a million boxes of water that were never delivered to the villages,” posted Abdiel Santana, a photographer working for a Puerto Rican state police agency who took the pictures. “Is there anyone who can explain this?”

FEMA acknowledged to CBS News on Wednesday that the bottles were brought inland in 2017 in the wake of the hurricane and that they were turned over to “central government.”

It is unclear where the breakdown that caused the bottles to never be distributed was caused.

Celebrity chef José Andrés, who brought a crew of volunteers to help feed victims of Maria in the wake of the storm, called for an “official independent investigation” into what happened to the stash of drinking water.

“My teams knew about it but first they will say, ‘no we can not use them,’ months later water was no good for human consumption,” he tweeted. “We were ‘buying’ water because they wouldn’t give it to us.” He didn’t specify who “they” was.

The revelation comes as President Trump doubled down on his administration’s response to Hurricane Maria on Wednesday and lashed out at the mayor of San Juan, who has been a critic of the effort, as “incompetent.”

The president raised eyebrows Tuesday when he touted the response efforts in a meeting to go over preparations for the potentially devastating Hurricane Florence inching toward the Carolinas.

“The job that FEMA and law enforcement and everybody did, working along with the governor in Puerto Rico, I think was tremendous. I think that Puerto Rico was an incredible, unsung success,” he had said.

The death toll in Hurricane Maria is estimated to be nearly 3,000, a steep increase from the initial 64.

[caz1104]

Corruption

[Markinsa]

5 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

 

GO RV, then BV  

 

 

Puerto Rico's debt-plagued power grid was on life support long before hurricanes wiped it out

 

By RUBEN VIVES  and MOLLY HENNESSY-FISKE

SEP 28, 2017 | 5:30 PM

| SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO

  

 

A view of downtown San Juan, Puerto Rico, where officials say it will likely be four to six months before power is fully restored across the U.S. territory. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

At a public housing complex just outside the tourist district in Old San Juan, residents must make their way beneath a downed electrical pole to get in the front door. Another broken power pole blocks the road outside, and a third is sprawled next to the parking lot out back.

"At Fortaleza they have light, but not here," said Rosa Rivera, 53, a retired maintenance worker, referring to the governor's official residence. Rivera was sitting outside in her wheelchair Thursday to avoid the suffocating heat inside with no air conditioning.

Angel Perez, who lives nearby in the upscale Condado neighborhood, has called the city repeatedly to find out when the power — out across more than 95% of Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria hit on Sept. 20 — will be restored.

"No one has come," Perez said. "They don't pick up the phone."

 

In downtown San Juan, electric lines lie in the road and poles block apartment complexes, like the Residencia Parque San Lorenzo. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times)

 

Puerto Rico officials say it will likely be four to six months before power is fully restored across the U.S. territory of 3.5 million people. The island's faltering electrical grid, now crippled by the twin blows of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma, already was struggling to keep the lights on after a history of poor maintenance, poorly trained staff, allegations of corruption and crushing debt.

As recently as 2016, the island suffered a three-day, island-wide blackout as a result of a fire. A private energy consultant noted then that the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority "appears to be running on fumes, and … desperately requires an infusion of capital — monetary, human and intellectual — to restore a functional utility."

Puerto Ricans in early 2016 were suffering power outages at rates four to five times higher than average U.S. customers, said the report from the Massachusetts-based Synapse Energy Economics.

And then came Maria.

The collapse of the power system has tumbled down the infrastructure chain, making it difficult to pump water supplies — the water authority is one of the power authority's biggest clients — and also to operate the cellular phone system, which also relies on the power grid.

Residents have been scrounging for scarce fuel to power generators long enough to keep refrigerators and a light or two running. At night, many drag mattresses out to balconies and porches to escape the heat. Hospitals have seen life support systems fail and most business has come to a halt.

Much of the booming capital has been shrouded in nighttime darkness, except for the few restaurants able to stay open with generators — glowing magnets of cool air, iced drinks and salsa music.

View image on Twitter

NOAA Satellites

✔@NOAASatellites

 

Satellite night images of #PuertoRico. #HurricaneMaria knocked out power grid, millions without electricity. More @ https://goo.gl/CiuhJ1 

10:44 AM - Sep 25, 2017

• 2,955
• 4,664 people are talking about this

Puerto Rico largely survived Hurricane Irma, which killed three people and led to widespread power outages when it sideswiped the island two weeks ago. In relatively short order, the government-owned PREPA was able to restore electricity to 96% of its 1.5 million customers.

But the ferocious winds of Hurricane Maria a week later took out 55% of the island's transmission towers. Government officials and emergency responders said the island's power grid was effectively destroyed.

"Our infrastructure and energy distribution systems suffered great damages," Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello said.

Mike Hyland, senior vice president of engineering for the American Public Power Assn., a nonprofit organization that sent equipment and utility experts to help with recovery, said officials are conducting a comprehensive assessment of damage to the electrical system, relying in part on drones sent by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.

"It is going to be a long and arduous process and patience is the key word," Hyland said.

Restoring Puerto Rico's power will involve much more than replacing downed poles and cables. The entire system of generation, transmission and distribution must be rebuilt, including replacement of high-voltage transmission lines Hyland said.

The island has been relying on generators large and small, but fuel shortages have limited their capacity.

At least two people died this week in the city of San Juan after the generator producing electricity that powered life support systems ran out of fuel, city officials said.

The lack of power has brought some water pumps to a standstill, and a growing number of homes are running out of clean water.

U.S. military officials, part of a contingent of thousands of extra troops being brought in to help with recovery, are helping expedite fuel deliveries to hospitals.

By midweek, 689 of the 1,000 gas stations on the island were operating, Puerto Rico officials said. Fuel was delivered to at least 200 of those stations on Wednesday, they said.

The warnings about impending electricity problems that were issued even before Hurricane Maria hit stemmed from the island's long history of power outages and the lack of substantial refurbishing and maintenance.

Hurricane Georges in 1998 left the island without power for three weeks. The tropical storm destroyed 30,000 houses and damaged at least another 60,000.

Last year, the island suffered a massive blackout after a fire broke out at one of the island's main electricity plants, leaving half of the territory's residents in the dark.

PREPA at the time said two transmission lines had failed.

While natural disasters have underscored the problems of the island's electrical system, over the past few years the island's and the power company's money problems made the power grid particularly susceptible to crippling damage by storms.

As of 2014 the government-owned company was $9 billion in debt, and in July, it filed for bankruptcy under the provisions set by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act, a law signed by President Obama in 2016.

Problems accumulated. Cutbacks in tree pruning left the 16,000 miles of primary power lines spread across the island vulnerable. Inspections, maintenance and repairs were scaled back. Up to 30% of the utility's employees retired or migrated to the U.S. mainland, analysts said, and the utility had trouble hiring experienced employees to replace them.

The neglect led to massive and chronic failures at the Aguirre and Palo Seco power plants. The three-day blackout in September 2016 underscored how fragile the system was, and that the company was "unable to cope with this first contingency," the Synapse Energy report said.

 

Z@nazarioz

 

 

With Maria expected to hit Puerto Rico this week, after the Irma situation, the lines to try to buy a power generator are insane.

 

6:45 PM - Sep 17, 2017

• 2
• See Z's other Tweets

 

 

 

This week, for the first time since the storm, electrical crews began appearing not just in the capital, but in neighboring Carolina and Rio Grande. Faced with a tangle of downed poles, lines and transformers on nearly every street, it wasn't clear how much progress they were making.

Across the island, residents have been waiting in gas lines not so much to drive, but to keep their generators running.

Eduardo Millan, sweating in the the afternoon heat in one such line, said he needed fuel for the generator at his home near the airport.

He uses it sparingly — only at night, and only to run the air conditioning, he said. "I need to sleep."

Times staff writers Hennessy-Fiske reported from San Juan and Vives from Los Angeles.

molly.hennessy-fiske@latimes.com

[caz1104]

If one has ever had the pleasure of visiting PR....it's  beautiful...but much like Mexico, PR has high percentage of slum/rough neighborhoods, communities &  life for the majority is less than ideal. And Power outages are comin place DAILY, except for resorts.  

[caz1104]

Man that Dude Trump has been the source of all the worlds woe for hundreds of years & PR is just one example.....according to MSM, BA (here at DV), & the Left - SMH 

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

***///

PR has had every opportunity under our protective wing to drag itself out of 3rd world status.

It hasn't.

It even exports some of it's woes to our own shores.

 

PR is like the kid who won't move out of Mom's basement...

keeps it an unholy mess down there,

keeps taking money out of her purse,

steals her car keys and drives it like he owns it !

 

We've squandered BILLIONS of US Tax Dollars on their "woes"  with no return.

 

 

We've reached out in different ways around the globe in an effort to change hearts & minds and

provided opportunities for other peoples to pull themselves up by our own Patriotic example....

 

PR is just another example of our own Government's WASTE.

 

Between US Military protection, Trillions in "USAid" and untold tonnage of food, petrol, medical, technology,

emergency relief, etc, ===>    we've seen very little gratitude.

 

Instead we get laughed at, mocked & abused on the U.N. floor and called names like "aggressors", "baby killers",

"invaders", etc.  And THIS by people who's azzes we've saved - sometimes more than once - at our OWN expense !!!

 

Until the socialist/kommie despots and the Catholic "church" are neutralized in these banana "republics",

we'll continue to be treated like their whipping boy.

 

'OlSarge'sGals vote we cut the apron strings... let 'em sink or swim - hurricane pun intended.  Tough love time.

 

.

[bostonangler]

15 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Man that Dude Trump has been the source of all the worlds woe for hundreds of years & PR is just one example.....according to MSM, BA (here at DV), & the Left - SMH 

 

Hey don't drag me into this one!!!! LOL

 

B/A

[Shabibilicious]

On 9/14/2018 at 6:46 PM, caz1104 said:

Hey Shabs

On CNN last nite I believe, they had three of their biggest nite stars (sic) , Cuomo ( I'm the greatest - just ask me), Don (no clue) Lemon, & Anderson ( I'm pretending to be listening) Cooper  on at the same time (split screen). All three were in NC ( why weren't they in FLA or PR?  hmmmm) and their discussion was mainly about whether FEMA & the WH would do an adequate job with Florence or not.....seriously they couldn't even wait to see  what transpired before digging at TRUMP. As I've said many times I'm not a Trump fan on a personal level...but my god they( MSM) have got to start acting responsibly and cool there "plain as day" hatred....another just do ur friggin job....report honestly & un bias....pipedream I know

 

Yeah, that's not good....but what does that have to do with the post you quoted of  Fox News saying Trump cheapens us as a country?  That's his flagship, his peeps, his enablers personified.

 

GO RV, then BV

Edited September 17, 2018 by Shabibilicious

[Shabibilicious]

On 9/14/2018 at 3:41 PM, 8th ID said:

 

Shabs, this is just for you.   Show the proof that 3,000 died. There is none...face the facts!

 

The independent study did show proof....that's why they call it a study.  As for the cartoon...Bugs Bunny has sarcastically pushed back against dull, overreaching maroons since day one....so thanks, your accidental compliment is appreciated.

 

GO RV, then BV

[Shabibilicious]

Good morning, by the way.

 

GO RV, then BV

Edited September 17, 2018 by Shabibilicious

[caz1104]

5 hours ago, Shabibilicious said:

 

Yeah, that's not good....but what does that have to do with the post you quoted of  Fox News saying Trump cheapens us as a country?  That's his flagship, his peeps, his enablers personified.

 

GO RV, then BV

Just another opinion......and we all know what they say about opinions. I guess my point was that little if anything is ever said anywhere even here by the left & MSM when blatant BS is put forth.....sad really

Edited September 17, 2018 by caz1104

[Shabibilicious]

27 minutes ago, caz1104 said:

Just another opinion......and we all know what they say about opinions. I guess my point was that little if anything is ever said anywhere even here by the left & MSM when blatant BS is put forth.....sad really

 

Do you consider Fox News as MSM and as full of BS as the rest....or was this particular "critical of Trump" Fox comment, an isolated incident?  

 

GO RV, then BV

[caz1104]

I believe all  equal in integrity.....only difference is the Left's mouthpieces outnumber the rights easily 10-1