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Iranian official calls for negotiations with Washington in Iraq


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US sanctions halt Japan's imports of Iranian oil

04-09-2018 11:58 AM
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Baghdad News -

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 

Japan is bracing for a US response if it continues to trade with Tehran, Japanese media reported, while sources said India had decided to allow refiners Government of Iranian Oil Import. 

US President Donald Trump decided in May to withdraw from a nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers in 2015, under which Tehran pledged not to pursue nuclear weapons. The decision led to the re-imposition of strict US sanctions on Iran. 

The Japanese government has tried to negotiate an exemption from these sanctions so that it can continue to buy Iranian oil, which has been significantly reduced, but the US side remains firm, and Tokyo's chances of continuing to import it have become negligible, according to the media.

Thus, although it says it has not made any decision yet, Japanese companies are seeking to increase the quantities they import from other countries to be able to bridge the gap that constituted Iranian oil, which represents about 5.3 percent of total oil imports. 

Japan, which lacks resources, relies almost entirely on the outside of its energy supply. The United States has asked all countries to halt their imports of Iranian oil by November 4 if they want to avoid sanctions. 

On the other hand, sources said India had decided to allow state refiners to import Iranian oil to provide Tehran with tankers and insurance services after companies including the Indian shipping company SCI, the country's largest shipping company, suspended flights to Iran because of US sanctions. .

"We have the same situation as most Western shipping companies because there is no coverage so we can not go to Iran," an Indian shipping company official told Reuters. 

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media about commercial deals. 

A government source confirmed that the «Ministry of Shipping« allowed the refineries to buy Iranian oil on a comprehensive basis of cost, insurance and shipping ». The Government source stated that the permissibility of procurement on a comprehensive basis, insurance and freight was applicable only to existing annual contracts with Iran. 

Oil prices rose yesterday, buoyed by concerns that a fall in Iran's output would reduce supply in the markets, but gains were limited by increased supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the United States.

Global Brent crude futures rose 45 cents to $ 78.09 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 10 cents to $ 69.90 a barrel. The benchmark crude rose sharply over the past two weeks as Brent rose more than 10 percent on expectations of a global supply contraction later this year. 

However, the world oil markets still have some oversupply. A Reuters survey showed that OPEC production rose 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August to its highest level in 2018 at 32.79 million bpd. The increase in production came in support of Libyan production recovery and the rise in exports of southern Iraq to a record level. . US drilling companies added oil drilling platforms for the first time in three weeks, adding two platforms to 862 diggers. The rise in the number of rigs has contributed to an increase in US crude production by more than 30 percent since mid-2016 to 11 million bpd.

Russia's energy minister Alexander Novak said his country's production of oil would remain stable in September, unchanged from July and August levels, the TAS news agency quoted Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak as saying. Data from the Energy Ministry showed yesterday that Russian oil production reached 11.21 million bpd in August, unchanged from July. 

Russian gas producer Gazprom will increase its investment program this year to 1.49 trillion rubles ($ 22 billion) from the initially planned 1.28 trillion rubles, the Interfax news agency quoted a source as saying.

 
 
 
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Will Iran terrorism put Iraq in range of Israeli fire?

 

After recent reports revealed that Iran has transferred its missiles from Syria to Iraq in fear of further Israeli strikes, many observers showed their concerns over repercussions of Iranian suspicious activities for Iraq.

Insiders said that Iran is manipulating with the safety and security of the Iraqi people by these measures which make Iraq a possible target for Israeli strikes.

On Monday, Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman warned that Israel could hit Iranian targets in Iraq, days after reports confirmed thatIran is transferring arms from Syria to Iraq, fleeing the recent strikes carried out by the Israeli air forces on Iranian military assets in Syria.

"We are monitoring everything happening in Syria. According to the Iranian threats, we are not limiting ourselves on the Syrian territories," Liberman said in a press conference aired live by the Israeli TV.

"We will handle any Iranian threat, it doesn't matter where it comes from. Israel has total freedom. We retain the freedom to act." Liberman said when he was asked if Israel would counter Iranian threat on Iraqi territories.

There was no immediate response neither from the Iraqi government nor from the U.S. Central Command in Washington, which oversees U.S. military operations in Iraq.

However, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Saturday that he was "deeply concerned" by the reported Iranian missile transfer. 

"If true, this would be a gross violation of Iraqi sovereignty and of UNSCR 2231, " he tweeted, referring to the UN security council resolution endorsing the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. TheTrump administration has withdrawn from the deal in May citing, among other factors, Iran ballistic missile projects.

Iranian allied IMIS announced on Monday that their terrorists will be on high alert after the Israeli announcement threatened to hit Iranian targets in Iraq.

Sources said that the strikes will include terror militias headquarters deployed across Iraq.

For Israel, Iran is boosting its regional military presence and influence to open new fronts for a confrontation with it.

Despite their state of formal hostilities, Israel and Iraq have not openly traded blows in decades.

In 1981, Israel's air force destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor near Baghdad. During the 1991 Gulf war, Iraq fired dozens of Scud rockets towards Israel, which did not retaliate, out of consideration for U.S. efforts to maintain an Arab coalition against Saddam. 

Israel made a plan for its commandos to assassinate Saddam in Iraq in 1992, but the operation was aborted after a fatal training accident.

Insiders said that Israeli announcement could be a real prelude for future strikes in Iraq similar to its military operations in Syria which began in 2003.

Sources told The Baghdad Post that the Israeli strikes will target positions of Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, al-Nujaba movement, Badr militia.

Positions of Iranian militias in Bahr al-Najaf, al-Nakheeb and Karbala will also be targets for Israeli strikes in the next few hours, sources said.

 

https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/31342/Will-Iran-terrorism-put-Iraq-in-range-of-Israeli-fire

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This is an easy one.  Iran is trying to bait Israel to go after the missile sites so they can claim Israeli militarism against a sovereign Muslim country. They will claim the great Satan and it’s Ally are trying to take over the ME.  Of course Iran has already claimed they haven’t put any missiles in Iraq.  They said the said thing about Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria.   They are desperate and putting missiles in Iraq is an act of desperation imo.  I hope Israel doesn’t take the bait 

 

I believe it’s time to call a special session of the UN before we have a bigger mess in the ME.  Iran is spreading its arms and influence across the ME.  Time to shut them down. 

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India Allows State Refiners To Import Iranian Oil In Iran-Owned Tankers

Sep 04, 2018, 11:00 AM CDT Oil tanker

India has given permission to state-owned refiners to import oil from Iran with Iranian tankers and insurance, after the biggest Indian shipping company backed out of Iran voyages due to the U.S. sanctions, sources told Reuters, in a sign that India may not cut off Iranian oil imports after the sanctions return.

The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has stopped Iranian oil trade because of lack of insurance cover, a source in the company told Reuters, while a government official said that India’s shipping ministry has allowed state refiners to import Iranian oil on the so-called cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) basis, under which Iran would provide the shipping and the insurance for the oil cargoes.

Iran eager to continue selling its oil to India—its second-largest single oil customer after China—even as some Indian refiners are said to be thinking of reducing oil imports from Iran for fear of running afoul with the U.S. sanctions and having their access cut off to the U.S. financial system. Earlier this summer, reports had it that Iran had started to offer India cargo insurance and tankers operated by Iranian companies as some Indian insurers backed out of covering oil cargoes from Iran.

 

Refiners and oil traders in China, Iran’s top oil customer, have reportedly started to switch to using Iran-owned tankers for almost all their crude oil imports from Tehran.

Related: The Collapse Of Venezuela's Imaginary Oil Currency

China has said that it would not stop buying Iranian oil despite U.S. efforts to bring the Iranian exports down to ‘zero.’ But Beijing is also said to have agreed not to increase its oil purchases from Iran.

India, for its part, has been torn between cutting itself—and its refiners—off from the U.S. financial system by continuing to import Iranian oil, and keeping cheaper Iranian oil imports flowing. India is expected to finalize its strategy regarding Iranian oil purchases after a meeting with top U.S. officials on Thursday.

India will “definitely” not entirely cut off its crude oil imports from Iran, a senior Indian government official with direct knowledge of the country’s oil purchasing policy told Reuterslast week.

 

 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Allows-State-Refiners-To-Import-Iranian-Oil-In-Iran-Owned-Tankers.html

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Cant help but feel as if Iraq will wait too long, something will ignite and exacerbate an issue, shutting down and putting the RV on hold for an “ undetermined amount of time “  & everything the CBI has accomplished. Then it’s full blown  “ Crisis “ mode. 

 

The last 15 years of Iraq’s political history speaks volumes to the present day situation.

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Ya 10 years, Iraq has a terrible track record.  Right when you think they have their stuff together they find a way to muck it up.  It would help if they were a true sovereign country and kick Iran out of the country along with their bs militias.

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Israeli media says U.S. urged Israel not to attack Iraq
 

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) The Israeli Makan TV channel has reported that Washington urged Israel not to attack“The U.S. request was delivered to Israel during the past few weeks after Washington received information,” the channel reported quoting western sources.

The [U.S. President] Trump administration is meant with handling Iran’s intervention in Iraq, the sources said.

According to the channel, Washington’s request is likely to target “keeping Iraq outside Israel’s activity, unlike Syria.”

On Monday, Israel’s Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel will not be reluctant with handling any Iranian threat anywhere. He hinted to attacking military units in Iraq, which could be carried out by Iran.

 

The Iraqi Foreign Ministry denied, on Sunday, that Iraqi armed groups receive ballistic missiles from Iran. This came after a news report by Reuters earlier quoted Iranian, Iraqi and western sources as saying that Tehran provided Ballistic missiles to pro-Iran groups in Iraq.

On Saturday, deputy commander of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces for international affairs Brigadier General Qadir Nezami denied that Tehran provided any ‘group’ with missiles in Iraq.

 

 

https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/israeli-media-says-u-s-urged-israel-not-to-attack-iraq/

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11 minutes ago, Pitcher said:
 
Israeli media says U.S. urged Israel not to attack Iraq
 

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) The Israeli Makan TV channel has reported that Washington urged Israel not to attack“The U.S. request was delivered to Israel during the past few weeks after Washington received information,” the channel reported quoting western sources.

The [U.S. President] Trump administration is meant with handling Iran’s intervention in Iraq, the sources said.

According to the channel, Washington’s request is likely to target “keeping Iraq outside Israel’s activity, unlike Syria.”

On Monday, Israel’s Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel will not be reluctant with handling any Iranian threat anywhere. He hinted to attacking military units in Iraq, which could be carried out by Iran.

 

The Iraqi Foreign Ministry denied, on Sunday, that Iraqi armed groups receive ballistic missiles from Iran. This came after a news report by Reuters earlier quoted Iranian, Iraqi and western sources as saying that Tehran provided Ballistic missiles to pro-Iran groups in Iraq.

On Saturday, deputy commander of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces for international affairs Brigadier General Qadir Nezami denied that Tehran provided any ‘group’ with missiles in Iraq.

 

 

https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/israeli-media-says-u-s-urged-israel-not-to-attack-iraq/

 

Telegram reads - Dear Israel. Stop. Do not leave the box. Stop. We got this. Stop. Stand down. Stop. Stop. Stop. Sincerely, “ The Donald “

 

Sound recomendation from the US  -  hope Israel heeds the advice. 

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Iran: Military Spending, Modernization, and the Shifting Military Balance in the Gulf

By Anthony H. Cordesman 

September 4, 2018

 

The military balance between Iran, its Arab neighbors, and the United States has been a critical military issue in the Middle East since at least the rise of Nasser in the 1950s. Iran, Iraq, and the other Gulf states have been the scene of a major arms race since the mid-1950s. The fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and rise of Khomeini helped trigger a major war between Iran and Iraq that lasted from 1980 to 1988, and came to involve every Gulf state and the U.S. The economic impact of the war helped trigger the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and a subsequent war to liberate Kuwait in 1990-1991. Its aftermath then led to the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the rise of violent Islamist extremism, and ongoing struggle against ISIS.

 

The risks this arms race presents in terms of a future conflict have not diminished with time, and many elements of the regional arms race have accelerated sharply in recent years. Clashes with Iran in the Gulf, struggles for influence in Iraq and Syria, and the war in Yemen all act as warnings that new rounds of conflict are possible. The Iranian reactions to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran, and the U.S. response also indicate new rounds of conflict are possible.

On July 22nd, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani warned the U.S. that, “Mr. Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to regret. America should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars. You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s security and interests.” The next morning, President Trump replied with a Tweet in full capitals stating that,

“NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!”

No one can safely dismiss such rhetoric as political posturing over the fact the U.S. is imposing steadily more serious economic sanctions over Iran. The history of war is as much the history on unintended conflicts and escalation as of deliberate attacks. There have already been far too many such wars in the Middle East, and the current arms race has far too long and dangerous history to ignore.

The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new major new 185-page report that uses a wide range of tables and graphs to trace the history of the Gulf arms race in terms of military expenditures, arms transfers, and comparative rates of military modernization. In the process, it examines the economic burden on the Gulf states of these military expenditures and arms transfers, the recent shifts in the balance in terms of the major elements of conventional warfighting capability, and the impact of a steady shift towards options for asymmetric warfare.

This report is entitled Iran: Military Spending, Modernization, and the Shifting Military Balance in the Gulf, and is available on the CSIS web sites at https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/180904_Iran_Shifting_Balance.pdf?.

The report is divided into twelve main sections:

table_of_content1.jpg?UADZOzs1JLLGuImnu6

It draws heavily on both official open source reporting and the work of major research centers like the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as well as variety of other think tanks and commercial research centers. It notes the critical role of the United States and European forces like those of Britain and France in shaping the balance, as well as the emerging role of Russia, but focuses on the detail trends in Iran, Iraq, and the Southern Arab Gulf states - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

A detailed Table of Contents is provided at the start of the report. The introduction addresses its broad contents, and each major section then provides the Figures with tables, graphs, and maps that explain the evolution of military spending, arms transfer, modernization and their impact of the balance in more detail. In each case, the text addresses the issues in going from comparisons of spending on conventional forces and major arms to the analysis of capabilities for asymmetric warfare.

 

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-military-spending-modernization-and-shifting-military-balance-gulf

 

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Is time ripe say 'check mate' to the Iranian regime?

 

The economic war on the Iranian regime has been triggered by the US withdrawal from the nuke pact last May. New US sanctions have been slapped on Iran as a knock-on effect of the withdrawal.
The war is multifaceted. And it has several actors engaged therein. But Iran remains the main foe in the war, with the centrifuges, economic infrastructure, oil, banks and commerce being the fuel of this war.
The relations between the US and Iran have witnessed several ups and downs over the past four decades. They were very close to war at several levels. They engaged in espionage war, economic war, and cyber warfare which reached its peak in 2009 when US experts launched a cyberattack against the nuclear plant of Natanz, using Stuxnet virus. Due to this attack, thousands of centrifuges suffered malfunctions. They were completely damaged in the end. 
Nonetheless, the economic war seems to be taking a heavier toll on Iran, forcing it to sit down around the negotiating table with the superpowers including the US. 
In 2015, Obama was able through sanctions to rally an international consensus against Iran and force those representing the theory of Wilayat al-Faqih to sit at the table with the "Great Satan," the name the Iranians use to call the United States.
But the strategy of the current US president, Donald Trump, in declaring the economic war has taken a harsher and tougher stance.
The United States announced its withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May. The US administration has put 12 conditions on Iran if it wants to sit at the dialogue table. The most important of these conditions mentioned by Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo is the complete ceding of nuclear programs, suspending the development of missile weapons, non-interference in the affairs of neighboring countries, and stopping support for terrorist militias such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.
After this decision, a new phase of pressure onIran has begun. Sanctions on the gold trade, precious metals and some industries have been imposed subsequently. These initial steps have negatively impacted the Iranian economy. The riyal plummeted against the US dollar from 43,000 riyals to the dollar at the end of 2017 to 110,000 riyals in recent days.
Prices for all products in the Iranian market have risen three-fold or more, especially prices of foodstuff that affect the life of the ordinary citizen. The crisis is escalating day after day.  Two ministers were removed from office by parliament, and the same fate awaits Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
The first package of sanctions prompted Western companies to withdraw from Iran and cancel contracts signed with Tehran after the nuclear deal, such as Shell Petroleum, Peugeot, Siemens, the shipping giant Maersk, and Lukoil which decided to abide by the sanctions despite being Russian. British, Dutch and French airlines have also stopped flights to Tehran because of sanctions.
But what will happen to the Iranian economy after slapping the second package of sanctions. It will take effect as of November 4th. They will be the most devastating for Iran and its economy.
The second phase will impact oil, which is the artery of the Iranian economy. The US plans to reduce the Iranian oil exports to zero, according to Brain Hook, Washington's special representative for Iran.
On its part, the US is trying to muster the biggest possible allies for its war with Iran. In this respect, it is working hard to convince the EU nation to join the push.
Maybe the EU is the main obstacle the US is facing in its standoff with Iran. The Iranian regime uses its relations with these countries to water down the harsh US measures. But Trump's threat to quit Nato thus leaving Europe alone in the face of the Russian threat, has pushed Europe to change their positions. 
This is addition to sanctions that may affect the countries and European companies that intend to deal economically with Iran. The experts rule out that Europe will sacrifice more than $ 750 billion of trade with America, for less than $ 20 billion with Iran.
On the other side, the options that Iran has at hand for addressing the economic war and the growing threats against it seem to be limited. All options are never free of engaging in bets and risks. At home, Iran must persuade its people to tolerate austerity policy. And abroad, Iran it relies on China, Russia and the armed militias it supports across the region. 
As to the home front, the Iranian society suffers from resentment and tension involving all segments of society. Reports, that come out about the embezzlement and corruption, are damaging the regime from within. This has made the ordinary citizen feel abandoned by the economic and foreign policy of the regime. People are getting poorer, especially those with fixed salaries and the middle class, where they see that their salaries are not sufficient to meet their daily needs. Iranian citizens feel that the political system is failing them and is squandering their money on militias like Hezbollah and the Syrian regime.
In December 2017, the country was gripped  by a wave of demonstrations and protests against economic decline .Various segments of the society, including the bazaar, the strategic ally of the Tehran rulers, partook in the protests.
In addition to the economic crisis, there are major crises and challenges facing Iran, such as the lack of political freedoms, the demands of non-Persian peoples, and gross violations of human rights. The latter include persecution of religious and national minorities, the high rate of executions, violations of women's rights and social crises such as rampant unemployment.
As for the non-Persian peoples, these peoples were and continue to be a real crisis for the regime in Tehran. They are frustrated by the government's practices against them and the neglect of their demands by this regime. They sees no difference between it and the former regime (of the Shah).
We can look at the situation of the Ahwazi Arabs as a case in point. Their plight was mentioned in the speech of the US secretary of state Mike Pompeo in front of the Iranian community in theUS last July. The Ahwazi issue shows us how far the non-Persian peoples are fed up with the policies of the iranian regime. 
Ahwazis make up about 10 to 13 percent of Iran's populace. They dwell mainly in the southern and southern-western parts of Iran on the border with Iraq and the eastern bank of the Arabian Gulf. In Ahwaz, there is more than 90 percent of the oil resources used by the Iranian regime. Yet the region was one of the most important hubs when it comes to agricultural production and fisheries.
According to United Nations reports and international human rights organizations, Ahwazis have suffered over nine decades of various forms of discrimination, racism, and systematic policies aimed to obliterate their identity and existence. After the victory of the revolution in 1979 and the establishment of the so-called Islamic Republic, the current regime continued its policy of marginalization, plundering wealth and keeping the people poor. Ahwaz was ranked first in terms of unemployment and poverty nationwide despite the enormous resources it possesses.
These pressures, prosecution and repression have prompted the Ahwazis to take to the streets to demand their rights. The protests have continued for nearly a year, raising various slogans. For example, 2018 saw three major commotions in Ahwaz, let alone the small protests organized by oppressed workers, farmers and students. According to observers familiar with the Iranian affairs, there have been more than 9,000 small protests.
The situation in the other regions such as Bluchestan, Kurdistan and Azerbaijan is never better off. And the regime is completely certain it cannot bet on gaining support of these peoples which aspire to better future. They are exhausted by the dire conditions they have suffered due to the longstanding foe with the US by the successive Iranian regimes.
Many observers believe that the Iranian regime has lost its legitimacy internally and has only a few left to bet on - the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards. Therefore, relying on popular support in the economic war does not seem a reliable option. 
The issue of forming and supporting armed militias in the countries of the region is something everyone knows, and does not need proof. It is not only Shiite militias such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. Furthermore, Iran has supported al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and there are reports of complicity with ISIS.
In the context of the economic war, Iran's decision-maker may use these militias as a tool to pressure neighboring countries and the United States.
Terrorist operations in the region are likely to increase in the coming period. But the battles in Syria and the quagmire in which Iran become involved, as well as the costly support for the Houthis in Yemen, have proved the enormous political and financial cost that Iran must bear, especially under the growing siege.

The Iranians are heavily betting on support fromRussia and China. China said that it may continue to purchase the Iranian oil after enforcing the second package of sanctions in November. 
But the ongoing trade standoff between the US and China due to the first's imposing of tariffs on Chinese products may push China to reconsider its position in this respect, given theUS markets are far more important for China compared to Iran. 
As to Russia, Moscow is facing sanctions from the US and EU. Iran wants to look for buyers for its oil. Russia is an oil-rich nation. So it has nothing to do with this issue for Iran.
With increasing pressure on Iran, some are wondering whether Iran will possibly exit the nuclear deal, and enrich uranium, and develop ballistic missiles. Others forecast it may reshuffle the cards, opting for an indirect confrontation with Israel. 
This could throw Iran into a bleak dilemma. The EU will quit the nuke deal. Russia, due to its relations with Israel, will not be fully on the side of Iran in the event of any confrontation. At the best case, it will pick no side. The results of those two options are disastrous for Iran. 
"The moderates" in Iran prefer to bow to the American conditions and sit down on the negotiating table and discuss all files, especially the missile program and interventions in the affairs of neighboring countries. This is opposed by Khamenei and hardliners in Iran because they know very well that attending the negotiating table means abandoning things that are essential to Iran. 
Iran believes it can hold out until 2019 in the hope that the Republicans will fail in midterm elections to Congress and the Senate scheduled for November 2018. 
On the other side, the Americans are betting that sanctions will enable them to get what they are looking for, hoping that Khamenei, who they see as the biggest obstacle to normalizing relations between the two countries, will die.


The author of this article is a political activist. He is the spokesperson for the Arab National Democratic Movement in Ahwaz.
 
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1 hour and 40 minutes ago

Secret Oil Shipments Will Iran Save Sanctions?

2018-09-05T01: 52: 50Z

Iranian oil sector ahead of difficult days (Archive)

 

ABU DHABI -
Barter, smuggling and selling at lower prices are among the tactics Iran may rely on to keep nearly 800,000 barrels per day of its oil exports after US sanctions resume in November.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar referred to the methods used in the past by saying Tehran would find "other ways" to maintain its oil exports. 

However, these measures and methods will not be sufficient to eliminate all the effects of US sanctions on oil exports, which have already fallen to their lowest level since March 2016. The 

 impact of sanctions continues

During the previous sanctions imposed by America, OPEC has disabled tracking systems on its fleet of oil tankers, which hid the destinations and the volume of oil exports, and the fate of millions of barrels of Iranian oil is not tracked, according to the agency "Bloomberg." 

Robin Mills, chief consulting officer of Qamar Energy in Dubai, said nearly 200,000 bpd of the country's oil sales after sanctions could not be disclosed.

"Exports at these levels will be important in mitigating economic impacts, but they will not have a big impact on the global market," he said. 

China, Turkey and India are likely to continue to buy Iranian oil after sanctions resume on Nov. 4, with China's smaller refineries buying some undisclosed dark shipments, according to Eman Nasri, Middle East managing director at FGE London.

In total, Iran can export 800,000 barrels of oil per day until 2019, including some 20,000 barrels sent by trucks to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Previous experiences

Experience shows that Iran can keep exports going, albeit at a much lower rate, even as Japan, South Korea and most European countries stop buying their oil, months before the resumption of sanctions in November. 

Many buyers may not be able to resist the large cuts Iran may face, and some may be heading to renew the barter trade that was effective earlier this decade. 

"Barter trade and private financing mechanisms are among the ways that would allow continued payments to Iran under sanctions," said Ihsan Khoman, head of research at the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.

But despite all the methods Iran will use to sell its oil, the Iranian economy and the energy industry will undoubtedly be hit by US sanctions. The country's exports to Europe have already fallen by 45 percent, or 226,000 bpd since May, and Total Dutch SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have completely stopped buying Iranian oil.

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Iran sanctions unacceptable, bound to fail: Iraqi interior minister 

Wed Sep 5, 2018 03:53PW
Iranian Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli (5th-L) and his Iraqi counterpart Qasim al-Araji (5th-R) meet in Baghdad, September 05, 2018. (Photo via IRNA) Iranian Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli (5th-L) and his Iraqi counterpart Qasim al-Araji (5th-R) meet in Baghdad, September 05, 2018. (Photo via IRNA)

Iraq says the policy of imposing sanctions on Iran and other countries has proven futile as resistance will always prevail.

Iraqi Interior Minister Qasim al-Araji made the remarks on Wednesday during a meeting in Baghdad with his Iranian counterpart, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, who was heading a high-ranking delegation of political and security officials during a short visit to the Arab country.

Araji told the Iranian delegation that subjecting other countries to sanctions and economic pressures was wrong and unacceptable.

The sanctions, he said, would not last long once they were met with resistance from nations.

Iraq has disapproved of US President Donald Trump's decision to restore anti-Iran sanctions that were removed under the 2015 landmark nuclear deal between Tehran and six world powers, which is officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said last week his government would respect the dollar ban but not all US sanctions on Iran. He also said he would send a delegation to Washington to seek possible exemptions.

Last week, in defiance of increasing pressure from Washington, Baghdad joined the growing list of countries that had decided to ditch the US dollar in trade with Iran.

The first batch of US sanctions that came into effect in early August targeted Iran's trade in US dollars, gold and other precious metals as well as its automotive sector, while a second wave due in November is set to hit its energy and shipping sectors.

Yahya al-Ishaq, the chairman of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, told Iran's Mehr News Agency over the weekend that future transactions between the two countries will be mostly in euros, the Iranian riyal and the Iraqi dinar.

Iran is a source of assorted goods ranging from food and agricultural products to home appliances and spare car parts to the neighboring Arab nation, with annual trade standing at more than $12 billion.

Securing borders ahead of Arba'een

The Iranian delegation entered Iraq earlier in the day on a mission to make arrangements for this year's Arba'een, when millions of Muslims, including hundreds of thousands of Iranians, head to Iraq to commemorate the 40th day after the martyrdom anniversary of Imam Hussein, the third Shia Imam.

The Iraqi interior minister hailed Iran's assistance in defeating the Daesh terrorist group in Iraq and said the visit by Rahmani Fazli sets the stage for broader talks on borders and security.

Rahmani Fazli said Tehran was ready to boost ties with Baghdad in all fields, including further securing the borders after a successful campaign to purge foreign-backed militants from the Arab country.

Iran's Ambassador to Iraq Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Interior Minister for Security Affairs Hossein Zolfaqari and Border Guard Command chief Brigadier General Qassem Rezaee were some of the officials accompanying Rahmani Fazli on the trip.

 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/09/05/573265/Iran-Iraq-Araji-Rahmani-Fazli-security-Arbaeen

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https://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=566455

Print Edition
Missiles and a portrait of Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran.(Photo by: NAZANIN TABATABAEE YAZDI/ TIMA VIA REUTERS)
Report: U.S. tells Israel 'please leave Iraq to us'
By ANNA AHRONHEIM
09/04/2018
 
American officials were reported to have told Israeli defense officials to “please leave Iraq to us.”
US officials have warned Israel not to strike Iraq after officials signaled that the IDF could target Iranian military positions in the country.

According to a report on Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, Washington asked Israel several weeks ago to not carry out any air-strikes in Iraq, weeks before reports surfaced that Tehran had deployed ballistic missiles capable of hitting Saudi Arabia and Israel.

American officials were reported to have told Israeli defense officials to “please leave Iraq to us.”

A report by Reuters over the weekend stated that Iran had transferred ballistic missiles to Shi’ite proxies in Iraq over the course of several months, and that it is developing the capacity to build missile manufacturing facilities as well as train militia groups to operate the weapons.

The missiles that were said to have been transferred include the Fateh-110, Zolfaqar and Zelzal types, which have ranges of 200-700 km., allowing them to threaten both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Despite new US sanctions placed on Iran meant to pressure Tehran over its military activity in the Middle East and its ballistic missile program, the Islamic Republic is continuing to improve its missile arsenal. It recently unveiled a new generation of short-range Fateh missiles called al-Mobeen or “The Divine Conquest” which is said to have a range of 300-500 km.

The Islamic Republic possesses more than 1,000 short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and has the ability to proliferate weapons to countries and non-state actors including Hezbollah on Israel’s border with Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran deal) Tehran is prohibited from transferring any weapons to third countries but Fox News recently reported Iran is suspected of smuggling weapons into Lebanon for Hezbollah.

Citing Western intelligence sources, Fox reported in the past two months two Fars Air Qeshm flights took unusual routes from Tehran to Beirut “to try avoiding detection.” According to intelligence sources quoted by Fox, one flight on July 9 stopped in Damascus before flying a “rather uncharacteristic flight path” over northern Lebanon. The Iranian plane carried components for producing precision weapons. A second flight on August 2 “took a slightly irregular route” flying over northern Syria. The report did not say what the cargo of that flight was.

“The Iranians are trying to come up with new ways and routes to smuggle weapons from Iran to its allies in the Middle East, testing and defying the West’s abilities to track them down,” said an intelligence official quoted by Fox News.

Israel has repeatedly stated it considers the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah to be a “redline,” and will work to prevent any such movement.

Israel is concerned that Iran is consolidating its grip in Syria making it a forward base to attack Israel. Jerusalem is also alarmed that Iran is building advanced weapons factories in Syria and Lebanon to manufacture GPS-guided missiles that could strike targets in Israel with great accuracy.

On Monday, the head of the IDF’s Northern Command, Maj.-Gen. Yoel Strick, warned that Israel’s military has dramatically improved since the last conflict with Hezbollah in 2006.

“If [Hezbollah] knew what we know about them, they wouldn’t be speaking so confidently,” Strick said during a conference organized by Hadashot. “[Hezbollah] will feel the force of our arm. I hope there won’t be another war, but if there is, it won’t be another Second Lebanon War, but the final northern war.”
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Iraq and US sanctions against Iran

   
 

 
 


06/9/2018 12:00 am 

Abdul-Zahra Mohammed al-Hindawi 

International reactions to US President Donald Trump's sanctions on Iran have been mixed and varied, including preventing Iran from buying or dealing in US dollars and other sanctions on gold and precious metals trading, metals transfers such as aluminum inside and outside Iran and restrictions on Iran's auto industry. On the other penalties for business transactions that depend on the Iranian currency (riyal) in the sale or purchase and bank accounts that retain large amounts of riyal in other countries .. The sanctions did not stop at this point, but America announced that it will stop Astra Iranian carpet, which represents an important economic source of the country's budget, as well as the case for Pistachio, preventing Iran from buying civilian aircraft 

 American. 
And in return to the global positions, it was between supporters and opponents and spectators,  
and each of these positions was based on the interest that will be achieved by this country or that of his rejection or support for the sanctions, which began to show their effects clearly in the Iranian reality through the collapse of the riyal to the lowest levels and leave A number of companies that Washington gave 90 days to end its business dealings with Iran. In light of these facts, the United States stressed that it would not hesitate to impose sanctions on countries that do not respond to its sanctions against Iran .. The supporters are starting from that America is the largest economic player in the world And thus can A fall that any economic system do not deal with it positively.
The sanctions against Iran would make the world more stable, calm and secure because it would make Iran incapable of pursuing its nuclear program and other justifications. American domination is intolerable, and therefore there must be a rejection of Washington's policies toward the countries of the Middle East, those policies that threaten the stability of the country and expose its people to tragedies and woes, especially if we talk about the effects of the economic embargo imposed by the United States to impose on Iran, Linked with Oran trade balance of high can not alienate them, add a coherent political positions with tracks axes of the international and regional conflict in the region that are not obvious  
to the observer. 
If we want to talk about Iraq's position on US sanctions against Iran, it certainly stems from the interest of the Iraqi people in accepting or rejecting these sanctions.  
It seems clear that our position was based on two tracks. The first is that we are associated with the United States The strategic framework that obliges Washington to take into consideration Iraq's external and internal interests, and  
this would push the US administration to deal with us in a way different from its dealings with other countries, and in this context I think such a proposal should be present at the negotiating table between the 
 two sides.
On the other side, which is the second track, our relations with Iran are distinguished from economic and political relations. The balance of trade has achieved large figures in recent years, amounting to ten billion dollars a year, including imports of foodstuffs, fuel, equipment and others. These imports are currently available and there is no other party that could block Iran's debt if this import was stopped. Hence, the Iraqi position, which he said does not cover its commercial dealings with Iran in dollars, makes it far from being influenced by US sanctions. 
Hence, it can be said that balancing the establishment of equal relations based on common interests would save us a lot of problems which may be heavy 
 sometimes. 

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In anticipation of a possible American strike .. Iran is making changes in the leadership of the army

5920182018491031705934.jpg

 

8 hours ago

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NRT

On Wednesday, the Iranian armed forces witnessed a change in leadership. Pilot Brigadier Hamid Wahidi was appointed deputy commander of the Iranian Air Force .

The Iranian news agency Fars reported on September 5, 2018 that the pilot Brigadier Mahdi Hadian was also appointed assistant to the commander of this air force of the Iranian army in coordination affairs .

"This responsibility is a very difficult test," said Air Force Commander Brigadier Naseer Zadeh Touli. "We have to take the pace in this arena to succeed, and to know what responsibility we have. Now, any bones of men have been in charge of these responsibilities .

"We are now facing enemies who attack us in various rough, semi-coarse and soft dimensions, so we have to work in such circumstances with all our strength day and night ."

He stressed the need for constant vigilance in front of the enemies, adding that the enemy seeks to weaken our strengths threats and soft war .

The former Brigadier-General has previously assumed several responsibilities, including the deputy head of inspection and security at the air force, the commander of the Martyr al-Shaheed Fakouri base in Tabriz and the head of the army inspection department .

While the former pilot Hadyan pilot responsibilities such as deputy commander of "Noga" air in Hamdan, commander of the base, "martyr Yassin" air and commander of the University, "Martyr Stari ."

On May 8, US President Donald Trump announced his country's withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the resumption of all sanctions suspended as a result of the deal .

 The sanctions against Iran's acquisition of dollar bonds, penalties for the trade in gold and precious metals, sanctions against Iran's sale of graphite, aluminum, steel, coal and software for production, penalties for the acquisition of Iranian currency and sovereign debt, and a ban on export of Iranian carpets and food products to the United States will be renewed .

http://www.nrttv.com/AR/News.aspx?id=4086&MapID=2

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TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will ease European nuclear talks until November to resolve the fate of the nuclear deal

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will ease European nuclear talks until November to resolve the fate of the nuclear deal

 

1 views

05/09/2018

Tehran has given European countries until November 4, the date of the entry of Washington sanctions on Iranian oil to take effect, to provide guarantees for the continuation of the nuclear agreement.

"Iran has clearly stated to European countries that if its main interests in the nuclear deal are not realized, staying in the deal will no longer help us," the Iranian foreign minister said.

"If the nuclear agreement does not guarantee Iran's main interests, including the continued sale of oil, banking, etc., Tehran will withdraw from the nuclear agreement because," he said, "they have a November 4 deadline, and then any action on their part will be useless." Their survival will not be useful. "

HA

http://aletejahtv.com/archives/251685

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Millions of dollars Iraqi businessmen are held in Iran

 

 

Millions of dollars of Iraqi businessmen detained in Iran 
 

Iran is a major exporter of goods and goods imported in southern and central Iraq. These goods are not limited to food and daily consumption needs but extend to water and electricity services

Rhodau-Erbil

The Iraqi investor in the real estate sector, Hussein al-Kaabi, decided in 2015 with the intensification of attacks and the decline of the Iraqi real estate market, the deposit of $ 150,000 in an Iranian bank. That bank would then pay a 20% interest. Now, the verse has turned upside down and the Iraqi real estate market has recovered. It is no longer a threatening threat as it was, and the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran has left the latter in a financial crisis. 

In an interview with the Washington Post, al-Kaabi attributed the whole problem to the policies of the White House, and said that the decline in the financial situation of the Iranian banks also led to the deterioration of its financial position.

The case of al-Kaabi and hundreds of other Iraqi investors shows that US sanctions and the Iraqi government's commitment to them are not just a political problem between America, Iraq and Iran, but affect the everyday lives of ordinary citizens.

Nazem al-Khafaji, the owner of a 60-year-old hotel in Najaf, points the finger at the Iranian government. "I blame the Iranian government because it played the dirty game," he said. Khafaji had deposited $ 100,000 In an Iranian state bank since April 2015, but now it is clear that he has lost half the amount.

In an interview with the American newspaper, the Iraqi economist, Bassem Jameel Antoine, pointed out that Iraqi investors also bear some responsibility for the problem. "I knew there was a trick. There is no bank interest anywhere in the world at 20%. Interest rate is only 4%. "

According to the Washington Post, Iranian banks have not sought to attract Iraqi funds through public announcements and announcements. They have also propagated rumors through Iranian religious visits to Iraq, with the aim of convincing Iraqis to deposit their money with those banks.

The 48-year-old Iraqi trader, Abdulrahman Schnayor, admits he had to question the conditions imposed by Iranian banks, but the high interest rate was the one he had been snubbed. He had deposited $ 110,000 in an Iranian bank, The dollar to the Iranian riyal, and not to withdraw any part of it during the first year following the opening of the account, and after that year allowed to draw but in Iranian currency and not in dollars.

"The sin is my sin, but this is the case of trade, sometimes winning and sometimes losing. We thought that the exchange rate of the Iranian riyal would remain constant," says Schneier. The Iranian bank imposes very difficult conditions on people who want to recover their money, including that a person can withdraw only two hundred dollars per day.

Iran is a major source of goods and goods imported in southern and central Iraq. These goods are not limited to food and daily consumption needs, but extend to water and electricity services. In addition, religious tourists are a major source of revenue for the Baghdad government and the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is a major blow to the Iraqi tourism sector.

Three months ago, Jalal Hashim had to close his tourist company in Iran. For ten years he had been attracted to Iranian Shi'a tourists to visit the shrines of Najaf, Karbala and Samarra. Hashim said the fall in the riyal against the dollar had led to a significant drop in the number of tourists.

"Two years ago every Iranian tourist had to pay $ 500 (to visit Iraq). That was equivalent to two million Iranian riyals, but now he has to pay five million riyals, which is huge in the light of Iran's economic inflation," Hashim told Almonitor.

According to Hashim, the Iraqi tourism sector suffers from a complete recession because "95% of tourists are religious tourists, and there were five million Iranians in Iraq in previous years, but the high rate of poverty in Iran led to a decline in this number," and this caused great damage to owners Hotels "and hear from many hotel owners that they intend to close their hotels, after they dismissed the workers because they are no longer able to pay their salaries.

The Baghdad government fears that its full compliance with the sanctions imposed on Iran will lead to the Iraqi markets experiencing a severe shortage of goods. According to the Washington Post report that the Iraqi government intends to send a delegation to Washington, but the date of the visit to the White House has not yet been determined, The Iraqi government is considering a range of other options, including the commercial dealings with Iran in the euro currency.

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9884.jpg

  

 Arab and international


Economy News _ Baghdad

 Petromatrix International has confirmed a steady decline in the number of countries buying Iranian crude oil, pursuant to the decision of the US administration headed by Donald Trump to stop the conclusion of oil deals with Iran as the approach of full imposition of sanctions on Tehran by 4 November. 
A recent report by the company that "countries that violate the procedures of the United States risk hiding their banks from the US financial system, indicating that the global insurance companies on ships are also more difficult to achieve insurance coverage of vessels participating in the Iranian oil trade."

For its part, the report of "World Oil" International "a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports, where major buyers in Asia receive less shipments in the past few weeks before the implementation of US sanctions."

The report pointed out that Iran shipped less than 2.1 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in August last, this level is the lowest since March 2016.

The report pointed to "the increasing pressure on buyers of crude oil from Iran after US President Donald Trump said in May that the sanctions will be re-imposed fully from November 4, and Iran will face the risk of falling sales of crude oil exports."

"If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East exports will not be besieged, as they have alternatives and other vital channels," the report said.


Views 15   Date Added 06/09/2018

 
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Iranian Terrorists Are Targeting Opponents On American Soil

U.S. authorities recently indicted two individuals for acting on behalf of the Iranian regime and collecting intelligence information about the main Iranian opposition Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK).

The MEK, long supported by members of Congress, a stellar list of former U.S. officials, western parliamentarians and international rights activists, is engaged in a decades-long struggle for the establishment of a secular, democratic and non-nuclear representative government in Iran.

It is the first time that the mullahs are brazenly pursuing intelligence operations with the ultimate goal of identifying and assassinating opponents in the United States. But why now?

As popular uprisings in Iran reach critical mass,Tehran finds itself in a do-or-die situation and wants to desperately survive by attacking its most serious alternative.

The MEK has been identified as an existential threat to the regime in Tehran. The political coalition that it is a part of, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), is led by a woman, Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, and represents a powerful democratic alternative to a decaying tyranny loathed by the people.

In 1988, finding itself in a similarly precarious position, the regime launched a massacre of political prisoners, killing more than 30,000 MEK sympathizers.

Today, Tehran’s intelligence service conducts a vast propaganda campaign intended to demonize the MEK as a means to dry up international and local support. Tech giants Google and Twitter closed down some of these types of accounts last week. Demonization has failed, which explains why Tehran is now focusing more intensely on physical elimination.

According to the FBI and affidavits, two prominent activists in the United States, Alireza Jafarzadeh and Ali Safavi, were identified as potential targets of Tehran’s extensive intelligence and terrorism operation.

These disconcerting revelations come on the heels of other terrorist attempts and intelligence operations by the regime in recent months.

The first involved an Iranian diplomat, Asadollah Assadi, and at least two other individuals. German authorities formally accused them of plotting to bomb the Free Iran rally held by the MEK in Paris last June.

The second involved two individuals accused by authorities of terrorism against the group’s members in Albania in March.

The regime is desperately targeting the MEK because it has played a pivotal role in organizing the current nationwide protests.

After the Trump administration withdrew from the flawed Iran nuclear deal, signaling a departure from the decades-old policy of appeasement, Iran’s dissident majority has become more hopeful of moral and political support by Washington.

The MEK is tilting the balance of power in favor of the dissident majority in at least three ways.

First, while the existence of a dissident majority is necessary, it is not sufficient. In order for its aspirations to be materialized, an organized and dedicated movement is required.

In late 2016, when the process of relocation of MEK members from Iraq’s unsafe environment to Europe was completed, the organization found the breathing space to rally and organize anti-regime forces on a much broader scale. It helped transform scattered acts of protest into a nationwide show of opposition.

In December 2017, a year after the relocation, the MEK flexed its muscles and marshaled its pervasive network inside and outside Iran. Tehran’s president Hassan Rouhani appealed to his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, to limit the MEK’s activities in France as the instigators of protests in Iran. The regime’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, joined the fray, accusing the MEK in a televised speech of having organized the protests “for months,” citing credible intelligence reports.

Second, MEK members have successfully overcome years of terrorism and attacks by the regime and its proxies in Iraq, persevering and willing to pay the ultimate price for liberty. The organization’s perseverance, courage and principled policies have made it a unique role model for the younger generation of dissidents, especially women.

Finally, the MEK is a reliable and responsible alternative without which the dissident majority would find protesting against the regime futile at best because there would be no serious replacement after the regime’s downfall. This explains why the regime is trying to eliminate the MEK: in order to eradicate the prospect of a real alternative at a time of mass uprisings.

The mullahs are desperate, vulnerable and afraid. They are trying to physically harm and eliminate the organizing powerhouse behind the protests and the most viable alternative to their terrorist regime. That is why targeting MEK activists inside the U.S. needs to be taken seriously by American counter-terrorism agencies. Iranian protestors are watching, and so are the mullahs.

 

https://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/Story/31430/Iranian-Terrorists-Are-Targeting-Opponents-On-American-Soil

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A Watershed Moment Is Looming For Iran

Sep 08, 2018, 2:00 PM CDT Iran

Strenuous domestic and international posturing by political leaders in Iran during July, August, and into September 2018 highlighted the degree of stress which Iranian leadership groups and individuals have felt as a result of compounding and interacting internal and external pressures.

The current threat themes being faced include:

Domestic Unrest: A rapidly deteriorating domestic economic situation, exacerbated by extreme drought (which has been prevailing for a decade), power shortages, inflation, and corruption, leading to ongoing — and increasingly strident — major public protests in every Iranian city;

International Isolation and Prestige Loss: Widespread domestic dissatisfaction with Iran’s failure to return to the global community since the 1979 departure of the Shah has meant that Iranians lack freedom of movement and the ability to trade normally or fully interact internationally. Within the leadership, the success or otherwise of international engagement initiatives, usually by the “political” sector (the Presidency and Cabinet), has polarized the overall clerical leadership with hardliners continuing the “revolutionary” stance of reluctance to normalize with the international community. At present, the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 from the 2015 so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to regulate Iran’s nuclear program is being portrayed as a failure of the “moderates”, led by Pres. Hojjat ol-Eslam Hasan Rouhani, and a reinforcement of the harder-line Islamists under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamene‘i.

An Unpredictable External Military Threat Regime: There is a genuine perception, reinforced particularly by U.S. military threats and force posturing against the DPRK (North Korea), Iran’s ally, that the U.S. could also act militarily, directly or indirectly, against Iranian interests. Indeed, it is already doing so in alliance with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen. Moreover, Israel is also working militarily (and increasingly) against Iran in Syria, in particular, and there is a belief that Israel could influence the U.S. in taking military action against Iran.

Within this framework lies the reality that the Iranian “revolution” — in reality, the clerical Shi’a takeover of Iran following the collapse of the Shah’s Government — has now matured and the society overall is returning to a sense of normalcy which includes a reversion to its classical geopolitical identity. Much of even the clerical leadership is now moving strategic and security policy to accord with historical Persian norms, and the Iranian public is now, increasingly, rallying around Persian literary and cultural symbolism and creating a schism against the dominance of Shi’a religious identity. And yet it is the religious authority which is the basis for whatever legitimacy the clerical leadership claims for its actions.

These clerical Iranian leaders have, in varying degrees, broadcast a common view that the blame for the present internal economic problems of Iran and for its isolation lay with the renewal of sanctions by the U.S. Donald Trump Administration. However, there is widespread understanding — both within the clerical Administration and within the public — that this is a fiction.

It was true that the renewed U.S. sanctions had, by the second half of 2018, begun to bite into the Iranian economy, but underlying and almost universal domestic dissatisfaction with the governance of the country was now being equated to the dissatisfaction of the early 1980s, when the populace was close to mass unrest against the revolutionary leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. So Iran’s economic woes considerably pre-date the Trump sanctions and have been present since 1979.

Related: Is This The Riskiest Oil Frontier In The World?

What saved Khomeini from a surge of popular unrest was the 1980 attack on Iran by Iraq. This caused Iranians to put aside their deep resentment of the clerical seizure of power in early 1979 and to suspend response to the immediate and widespread abuses of power the clerics had instituted. Thus when Iraqi forces attacked Iranian positions, starting on September 22, 1980, with a view to halting Khomeini’s planned export of Islamic radicalism (as well as to seize Iran’s largely Arab province, Khu-zestan), Iranians rallied around their government in the face of an external threat.

National instincts overrode hostility toward the clerics.

There is, within much of the present clerical leadership, the hope that Pres. Trump’s verbal belligerence against the JCPOA, and the renewed sanctions, might resurrect a national “siege mentality” among Iranians, so that they could again rally around the clerical Government. That, by September 2018, did not appear to be happening, although the full effect of sanctions on Iranian oil exports were not expected to hit until the end of 2018. Meanwhile, rather than street protestors in more than a dozen cities calling “Death to the USA”, as they had done in years past, they were now, often, calling “Death to Khamene’i”

 

Even so, the Government has been portraying the U.S. and Israel as highly credible threats, and using this to justify a robust military posture for Iran. Less than credible announcements — some valid; some artificial — of “new” Iranian weapons systems have attempted to portray Iran as ready to rebuff any major conventional military assault. [Indeed, apart from modern weapons, Iran was well prepared by geography and human resources to make difficult any success for foreign military forces entering Iran.]

What has been significant has been the gestures by U.S. Pres. Donald Trump which on one hand have been threatening to Iran, and on the other welcoming a meeting between Iranian Pres. Rouhani and Pres. Trump. This could occur at the United Nations General Assembly gathering in New York on September 26, 2018, when Pres. Trump is due to preside over a session on Iran. There has been no meeting between a U.S. President and an Iranian leader since the Shah’s departure in 1979.

It is not insignificant that the clerics have been highly voluble in their condemnation of Pres. Trump’s readiness to meet with Pres. Rouhani, citing it as “psychological warfare”. It is clear that if a Trump-Rouhani meeting was to result in a new accord between Washington and Tehran to replace or supplement the JCPOA then Iran’s ongoing domestic unrest and economic decline would expose the clerical leadership to criticism from Iranians in the knowledge that there would be no foreign threats left to blame.

The highly-visible posturing of a strategic military threat to Iran has centered on the U.S. and Israel. That is not to say, however, that the U.S. and Israel (together or separately) could not represent a military threat to Iran or Iranian interests. Both states currently do oppose Iranian interests militarily, and have acted against it through cyber and intelligence warfare, just as Iran has acted against the U.S. and Israel in a similar fashion.

At a less publicized level, however, the Iranian Government has acted decisively to pursue its geopolitical interests and to counter actual Saudi Arabian military-political steps to undermine Iran. These Saudi-led steps have not only occurred in Yemen — where there has been Saudi and United Arab Emirates intervention to “save” the fragile unity of North and South Yemen (achieved in 1994) — but also in Syria and Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE had, through the removal on November 23, 2011, of former North Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic: YAR) leader of the unified Yemen, ‘Ali Abdullah Saleh, a Shi’a, accidentally begun to ensure that, in fact, “Yemen” would begin to break up into its historical components. Saudi Arabia essentially postured to have Saleh — from the victorious North (the former YAR) — replaced by the nominally Sunni Vice-President, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, originally from the former South Yemen (PDRY).

Related: A Bearish September For Oil

Thus the civil war erupted again, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE posturing the conflict as a war against Shi’ism. In fact, it was far wider than that, but it gave the opening for Iran to support the Yemeni Shi’a and anti-Saudi forces, including a resurrected Field Marshal ‘Ali Abdullah Saleh.

But Iran’s interests in Yemen, and in the Red Sea littoral have been historical and have traditionally gone beyond Shi’ism. Indeed, Persian interests in the Indian Ocean rim region well pre-date Islam. Similarly, Iran’s interests in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon are classically Persian in their geopolitical thrusts to ensure links to the Mediterranean, but they have, since 1979, relied heavily on the use of Shi’a societies in the Levant, and Yemen, to give common cause not just against Sunni Arab forces, but against radical Wahhabist and Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) jihadism, backed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar.

There seems little doubt that Iran is reaching a domestic political watershed. The result could, however, be a much more unified and more secular state emerging within a decade. What would than mean for Saudi Arabia, quite apart from its impact on Russia, the PRC, Turkey, the U.S., and Israel?

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Watershed-Moment-Is-Looming-For-Iran.html

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