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Let us have a THINK


rockfl9
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17 hours ago, EverCurious452 said:

You could be right, though If the GOI has an account at the CBI, its irrelevant to the exchange rate and thus an RV.  What draws the reserves down is importers exchanging dinars for dollars to buy foreign stuff and what brings it up is oil dollars being exchanged for dinars to pay the GOI's budget.  That's all that mattes as far as I can tell.

That's right!   Another thing is the thought that the HCL would be the trigger for an RV. that is a myth.   The original HCL proposed that a portion of the SURPLUS would be distributed to the provinces, not the people directly. But there is no surplus , the GOI needs all of it to fund the budget.  That is not going to change.

We dont know the state of the Iraqi treasury.  In the annual budget they always show that all the projected income will be spent thru the entire year but we know from the reports that many of the projects are eventually just cancelled  or terminated for lack of funds. 

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Agreed. No law, HCL or otherwise can alter the basic arithmetic of how a pegged currency works or the amount of USD in the CBIs reserves.  

 

Yet still after all these years, there is a new thread upstairs where folks are teasing apart a translation of a statement on "deleting the zeros" to try an infer and RV (as if the CBI would announce such a thing when they don't even announce the tiny changes they have made (and from time to time likely will continue to make)).  I understand how that sort of wishful thinking can grab you for a moment, but I don't understand how it can hold on for years against the clear fundamentals that say an RV can't happen.  

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  • yota691 changed the title to Let us have a THINK
On 9/29/2018 at 12:21 PM, EverCurious452 said:

but I don't understand how it can hold on for years against the clear fundamentals that say an RV can't happen.  

Like I said EC452  Some things are not worth an argument.... Just like religion..  Some believe and some don't  

But numbers are what matter. 

 

Hey Rock.. Whats the M2 of Iraq and what would a $3.00 Rv cost the country?

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Just as a point of clarification,  a central bank with a pegged currency would not usually cover (all of) M2 as the difference between M1 and M2 are more complex instruments that can not easily be converted to cash as can be done for M0 (cash) or M1 (M0+checing and savings) if I recall my M's correctly.  M1 for Iraq is somewhere around 60-70 Trillion IQD so a $3.00 RV would require something around $200 Trillion dollars.

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On 10/1/2018 at 1:14 PM, SocalDinar said:

Like I said EC452  Some things are not worth an argument.... Just like religion..  Some believe and some don't  

But numbers are what matter. 

 

Hey Rock.. Whats the M2 of Iraq and what would a $3.00 Rv cost the country?

As of June 2018 M2 was 88,362,883,000,000 Dinar.... with $55.5 B in reserves ,  puts the real exchange rate at .00062,  EC is correct it is not unusual to cover ALL M2 . Unlike cash where the central bank KNOWS well how much it has issued The financial items included in M2 are too complex and dynamic to be accurately measured.

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On 9/14/2018 at 1:35 PM, rockfl9 said:

Hi Mark,

NO it is not a pay raise... The civil service law guarantees all salaries.  So they get paid the same amount of dinar at whatever the exchange rate!  So he will  get 500k IQD at the 1 US cent rate .. In fact everything valued in dinar gets the same (official ) value.  The problem is that when the GOI puts up dollars in the "auction" instead of getting 1190 per dollar it only will get 100 !! So to meet the payroll it will have to put up 11 times the dollars to get enough dinar !  Don't you see that as a problem?   It is a basic business rule "You can't pay out more than you take in.

Our government has been doing it for years..What's the diff.

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5 hours ago, lost one said:

Our government has been doing it for years..What's the diff.

Doing what?

 

Some seem to equate the US debt (at 110% or so of our GDP, which I think is a bad thing) to Iraq doing an RV.  The only relationship I see is Iraq selling bonds denominated in dollars.  Folks buy our bonds as they have confidence that we will make the payments.  If Iraq were to (attempt to) sell bonds equal to 40,000% of their (171Billlion USD) GDP (to raise the 6-7 trillion USD for a 10 cent RV), who would have the confidence to buy them knowing that Iraq's entire GDP would not be enough to pay the interest each year (say 5%).

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3 hours ago, caz1104 said:

Debt is Debt no matter how you wanna try and twist it. Our gov is Trillions of dollars in DEBT....and the we print currency 24/7.  

How am I twisting anything?  

 

The US can print dollars, Iraq can print IQD, but for a RV Iraq needs dollars.  My post (above) simply made the point that there is no way Iraq can raise sufficient dollars via debt to fund a 10 cent RV, so claims that somehow the US debt shows Iraq could do so, are wrong.

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On 10/10/2018 at 11:44 AM, caz1104 said:

Debt is Debt no matter how you wanna try and twist it. Our gov is Trillions of dollars in DEBT....and the we print currency 24/7.  

And thats why a candy bar that cost 25 cents when we were kids is now over $2,00

The Fed keeps debasing the US dollar.  Biggest Ponzi scheme in the world.

Silver and gold  are cheap and a great insurance policy to the fall of the dollar.

 

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17 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

And thats why a candy bar that cost 25 cents when we were kids is now over $2,00

The Fed keeps debasing the US dollar.  Biggest Ponzi scheme in the world.

Silver and gold  are cheap and a great insurance policy to the fall of the dollar.

 

:twothumbs:

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22 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

And thats why a candy bar that cost 25 cents when we were kids is now over $2,00

The Fed keeps debasing the US dollar.  Biggest Ponzi scheme in the world.

Silver and gold  are cheap and a great insurance policy to the fall of the dollar.

 

The solution is to get the government to live within it's means.  Raise taxes and get to a balanced budget .   That would be a hard pill to swallow.  

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I live in California with the highest taxes in the country. The state is losing many high wage earners because of this.  

We need a smaller less intrusive government.  People need to stop expecting and receiving government handouts.

Higher taxes will just mean more spending. It will do nothing to balance the budget.

 

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4 hours ago, SocalDinar said:

I live in California with the highest taxes in the country. The state is losing many high wage earners because of this.  

We need a smaller less intrusive government.  People need to stop expecting and receiving government handouts.

Higher taxes will just mean more spending. It will do nothing to balance the budget.

 

Me too SD.  In fact I AM one of those high wage earners and hence know a huge number of similar folks in various sw companies and I know of no one who is taking about moving out of the state.  Do you have some stats on this?

 

I think we need to

1) simplify the tax system (we spend far too much on compliance, filling out the forms, especially for corporations) but I doubt the tax accounting/attorney lobby will let that happen

2) tax the 10% top earners more (that includes me) both because it will raise more money and its more fair, especially the 1% or the 0.1% (neither of which includes me)  if the Trump tax changes had actually done what he promised I'd be in favor of it, but it did the opposite.

3) live within our means

4) pass a greenhouse gas tax (that will make fossil fuels, landfills, and fast food burgers all more expensive) and require that 100% of that revenue to go infrastructure projects.  Basically this is taking the governments thumb off the scale and moving the price of these things more in line with their actual cost.

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On ‎10‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 2:43 PM, rockfl9 said:

The solution is to get the government to live within it's means.  Raise taxes and get to a balanced budget .   That would be a hard pill to swallow.  

How bout we streamline Gov.....let an outside firm get rid of the fat

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On ‎10‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 9:31 AM, SocalDinar said:

I live in California with the highest taxes in the country. The state is losing many high wage earners because of this.  

We need a smaller less intrusive government.  People need to stop expecting and receiving government handouts.

Higher taxes will just mean more spending. It will do nothing to balance the budget.

 

You are exactly correct.....higher taxes means more ways for these jackas* to waste our monies....and still not touch the deficit!

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  • 3 weeks later...

Back to having a THINK!

IF an overnight RV of $0.10 would be a benefit to Iraq WHY havent they done it ?   They wont because simple math should show that The economy could not take the shock. Everything Iraq imports must be paid in hard currency. (dollars, euros).Th e prices would have to increase 100X or importers would be out of business in a day..  The CBI reserves would also be depleted.  No matter what they do internally the oil revenue dollars would be the same amount.  The GDP in dollars remains the same.

There would not be a real increase in purchasing power for the Iraqi citizen !

The purchase of a mil dinar would be $100,000 !  WHO would be crazy enough  to risk that amount.,   

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  • 2 months later...

Back to having a THINK!

IF an overnight RV of $0.10 would be a benefit to Iraq WHY havent they done it ?   They wont because simple math should show that The economy could not take the shock. Everything Iraq imports must be paid in hard currency. (dollars, euros).Th e prices would have to increase 100X or importers would be out of business in a day..  The CBI reserves would also be depleted.  No matter what they do internally the oil revenue dollars would be the same amount.  The GDP in dollars remains the same.

There would not be a real increase in purchasing power for the Iraqi citizen !

The purchase of a mil dinar would be $100,000 !  WHO would be crazy enough  to risk that amount.

THINK Every USD in circulation  belongs to someone . There really isnt a pile of it waiting to fund an rv of the dinar. That means  that some person would want to give up dollars to buy dinar instead of buying a stock , bond or some item.  They would certainly not be interested in something Iraq has ..

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16 minutes ago, rockfl9 said:

Back to having a THINK!

IF an overnight RV of $0.10 would be a benefit to Iraq WHY havent they done it ?   They wont because simple math should show that The economy could not take the shock. Everything Iraq imports must be paid in hard currency. (dollars, euros).Th e prices would have to increase 100X or importers would be out of business in a day..  The CBI reserves would also be depleted.  No matter what they do internally the oil revenue dollars would be the same amount.  The GDP in dollars remains the same.

There would not be a real increase in purchasing power for the Iraqi citizen !

The purchase of a mil dinar would be $100,000 !  WHO would be crazy enough  to risk that amount.

THINK Every USD in circulation  belongs to someone . There really isnt a pile of it waiting to fund an rv of the dinar. That means  that some person would want to give up dollars to buy dinar instead of buying a stock , bond or some item.  They would certainly not be interested in something Iraq has ..

 

:lol:  You're so full of horse hockey. You do know it is okay not to post, so you don't embarrass yourself?

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On ‎9‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 8:53 PM, EverCurious452 said:

Well I don't come here very often, but yes I DID create the account after (rather long after) I had sold my dinar.  For me it wasn't really about dinar.  What I was interested in was the clash of different ways of thinking.  People get into buying dinar due to a belief in hitting it big, being in the know, the excitement and seduction of it all.  I get that as that is why I bought it in the first place.  But then fact based critical thinking took over and I realized I had been foolish.  The RV is not possible, its all a myth.  So I sold.  I think that same process is common to many folks, but obviously not all as many still hold onto their IQD.  I wanted to why?  What do they see that I don't or what do I see that they don't.  i.e. what is going on here?  

The clash of fact based critical thinking Vs belief is a serious issue in our culture today and it seemed like this rather narrow domain, in which I had some personal experience, might be a good area in which to explore that issue.  But when I asked question of dinar holders I just got flip one liners and drive by posts and insults.  No one wanted to seriously engage on the topic.  Few believers are open to questioning their belief and I couldn't get past that block even in this limited domain.

 I expected to be restricted to the tank, and was but then I was also put on permanent mod review.   Having to have every post approved by a moderator pretty much makes discussion impossible, even if there was anyone open to such discussion which didn't seem to be the case anyway.  So I stop by every few months  just out of curiosity, but rarely try to post.  

 

How about you Botzwana, you are a IQD holder, so what do you get out of coming to this site?

 

and whoever the moderator is that has approved my last few posts here (I'm guessing its Markinsa), thank you!

:bs:

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2 hours ago, Markinsa said:

 

You're defending what @rockfl9 posted? :lol:  Please decipher what he is saying and back it up with sound economics.

 

No I was responding to Caz's "BS" response (on 1/7/19 10:07am) to my post (a somewhat old one where I was answering Botzwana's question of why I was here.

 

Rock however is correct in his core idea (even if expressed rather cryptically) that a $0.10 RV would require 100x the amount of dollars the CBI has in its reserves.  When Iraqi's become 100x richer they are going to want to buy a lot of imported stuff which will require dollars.  When the CBI runs dry after the first 1% exchange, what do you think will happen?

Edited by EverCurious452
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On 10/14/2018 at 11:04 AM, EverCurious452 said:

Me too SD.  In fact I AM one of those high wage earners and hence know a huge number of similar folks in various sw companies and I know of no one who is taking about moving out of the state.  Do you have some stats on this?

 

I think we need to

1) simplify the tax system (we spend far too much on compliance, filling out the forms, especially for corporations) but I doubt the tax accounting/attorney lobby will let that happen

2) tax the 10% top earners more (that includes me) both because it will raise more money and its more fair, especially the 1% or the 0.1% (neither of which includes me)  if the Trump tax changes had actually done what he promised I'd be in favor of it, but it did the opposite.

3) live within our means

4) pass a greenhouse gas tax (that will make fossil fuels, landfills, and fast food burgers all more expensive) and require that 100% of that revenue to go infrastructure projects.  Basically this is taking the governments thumb off the scale and moving the price of these things more in line with their actual cost.

I personally know a few who haved moved to Oregon, Texas and Colorado.  We do produce a lot of high wage earners so the numbers show a net increase of high wage earners. Jerry Browns exit tax stalled a lot of moves.  I also know many that simply moved their physical address to other states to  avoid paying California's  capitol gains taxes. They only pay earned income taxes.  

But I do wonder why you think its fair for any one person to pay a higher percentage of tax?  You already pay more because you make more.

The bottom 40% pay nothing and many get money back because of credits.  That surely does not seem fair to me.  

As far as live within our means i agree. But more tax is not the answer.  Our local governments are bloated and overspend.

Our Librarian in my small town of 20,000 people makes $160,000 per year.  I have two small businesses and when i see that i wish i had taken a city job years ago. Many times i have put my house on the line and for what? To keep my employees working and my businesses alive.

 

As far as green house gas taxes we already pay the highest in the nation.  Arnolds cap and trade tax on refineries costs everyone over 50 cents a gallon. And you want to increase that tax to go to infrastructure products.? 

Jerry's gas tax passed in the middle of the night was supposed to make our roads better but it has only made government pensions better.

And how about all the taxes they call fees? No voter approval needed if they call it a fee.

 

California was paradise when i grew up here. Not so much anymore.

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