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Adam Montana Weekly 29 August 2018

Adam Montana

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On 8/29/2018 at 2:10 AM, lmb4321 said:

Hey Adam.... this is the take Theseus sent us about the date about the Monetary Reform..

and the SBA agreement with the IMF in July 2016....he later stated it might be 2023 before the Rv might happen

Just wan to hear your take.....



This is the post in which people say I said 2023.



3% chance is better than a 0% chance, wouldn't you agree?


As far as "the huge collective balloon of anticipation" I have stated as much going back to when the SBA of 2016 first appeared on radar and have been lambasted for saying such. I have held firmly to this conjecture that the RV will not happen without the IMF's blessing and the successful completion of the SBA of 2016. What Iraq has been working on, has achieved and continues to work on is based on the SBA 2016 and the suggestions of each subsequent review. Each review is first a review of the benchmarks previously set up and then suggestions going forth. The CBI has not met all of the benchmarks and has had those that were missed waived. I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV. I am saying that the chance will be greatly increased once the IMF signs off on a successful completion of the SBA of 2016. Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will. Why? Once the GOI is officially seated, then it becomes the budget season for the formation of Iraq's Budget of 2019.  Historically, very little major legislation has been passed during this period. Based on a history of the GOI, the budget will need to be completed and passed, which takes us from August  2018 into February/March of 2019.  Given this, Ramadan, closely follows in May of that year, May 5 through June 4, little to anything will get done from April to the end of Ramadan but this is not to say backroom dealings will go on like it has in the past. However, the GOI will be distracted with its new formation for the first month and the budget may get little to no attention until beginning September, pushing everything back. Seeing an RV before the implementation of the 2019 budget and successful completion of the 2016 SBA is a non-sequitur, meaning it does not logically follow given the history and past experiences of the GOI.




The 2023 part lies in between two sentences in which I am explaining my opinion (we will get back to that) to which the best chance for an RV to happen. The second sentence states it could be as late as 2023 OR  as early as 2020. Please if you are going to quote me, do so right. I do not believe it will be 2023 but as I rightly recall: there was another big blow up on this chat board where people did this same exact thing and tried to put words in my mouth before. At that time I was shouted at and told to shut up and whatever else. Probably cussed at a few times too. In that big blow up I stated as I stated in this thread I believe the RV will not happen until the 2016 SBA is complete. People were up in arms, someone told me that Iraq was going to RV that year because of some sort of accounts they were getting. Was told many things, did they RV, no. Why? Because of the 2016 SBA is not complete. What happens if they don't RV when its complete either in the summer of 2019 or the beginning of the year in 2020. Who the heck knows? I don't. Adam doesn't. Anyone outside of the CBI has is conjecture, opinion, speculation. My opinion is just that and its based off of my analysis. But then again I am not pumping for dollars nor will I ever. You have never heard me do so and you will never hear me do. I can understand why people would be upset and I understand why Adam said what he said. But never once did I or have I ever said the RV was not going to happen which people said I said in the beginning. Nor did I ever say the RV was going to definitely happen in 2023. I have said look at and read the SBA and the subsequent reviews. You have a checklist of waht Abadi is doing and attempting to do for that period of time. I haven't wavered from that analysis since it popped up in July of 2016. I know the value of the dinar will have to go up and where Adam and I disagree is the amount the dinar will be when the RV happens. I originally stated the dinar has to be on par or greater with the dollar for the Iraqi's to see their money is worth anything. What is funny is that I stated the psychological ramifications of this and Yota posts an article that came out after I stated this. The RV isn't for me nor is it for anyone else but the Iraqi people. We receive the side benefit from the RV. I also stated in that thread people are people and they act differently than when they are losing than when they are winning. The Consumer Confidence Indicator is a great view of the American psychological view on how they view their money as it correlates to their life and happiness. The same is true with Iraqis. This thread was between me and another. I stated then that that person needed to work on reading comprehension. That was me being facetious. Now wondering if others do too. But aren't we all just expressing our opinion with a little facts  thrown in to?

Edited by Theseus
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On 9/3/2018 at 3:59 AM, Theseus said:

"I originally stated the dinar has to be on par or greater with the dollar for the Iraqi's to see their money is worth anything."


I'd still love to meet up and have a few drinks with ya' bub, and hope we put all this behind us once and for all whenever this thing hits the fan.  Yes sir.




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