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Questions for Adam Montana 29 August 2018


TexasGranny
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Hey Adam.... this is the take Theseus sent us about the date about the Monetary Reform..

and the SBA agreement with the IMF in July 2016....he later stated it might be 2023 before the Rv might happen

Just wan to hear your take.....

 

September date is about a 3% chance of happening. In November of 2017, the discussion on the third review was done from the 17th to the 21st, 2017 and the report at the time discussed the 2018 budget. This third review is crucial because the machinations of having everything setup to RV must be completed by August 2018, when IMF should begin reviewing Iraq for the third time. Now the seating of the new government could delay the completion of the third review by two months or so but it will be in the Summer of 2019 that is the best chance for an RV. A final review might also be needed but nothing has been said about this. Why? The IMF, if finding the the final review of Iraq as acceptable, will then give the green light. I know almost everyone is saying only the CBI can pull the trigger and they are right but the CBI is waiting for the IMF to give a green light (permission) to do so. I believe should the IMF find Iraq progressing, meaning all the objectives of the second review have been worked on in an exceedingly progressive manner, then and only then will the IMF give the green light for Iraq to pull the trigger. In 2012, there was conjecture that the RV happened. What brought about the RV at the time was a 2009 SBA. IMF is assigning Iraq homework. Iraq is doing the homework and being graded on it. If Iraq passes then they will be certified to RV just like they were in 2012. Once the 2016 SBA is completed, have everything in place agreeable to the IMF, then and only then will the window be open to RV. One other thing, I do not think it will happen as soon as the SBA is deemed complete. It might take a few months but the window opens up around July 19, 2019, the completion date of the SBA of 2016.

Edited August 17 by Theseus
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On 8/18/2018 at 1:15 AM, ChuckFinley said:

Always like reading your post there Theseus. What would be your view point to Adam's take of waiting for the HCL and coming out at.10. Knowing that each has their own prospective? 

While Adam is excellent at what he does, I am in disagreement with a couple of things. First, I agree the HCL must not only be passed but a full implementation of the HCL must be up and working. Just because the HCL is passed in legislature is not enough for an RV. The reason here is that there are certain logistical barriers that must be traversed before the HCL is really up and running. Think of it like this, I want to create a program for you to use on your computer. I haven't tested it. I have never put it into a live environment. However, I make all the promises of a fully running program that you will be able to use once you sign the paperwork. Do you use the program? Sure the technology has been in use before I come to you with the idea but the specific idea has never been tested or put together before on your system. Logically, no one would take receipt of such a program until it has been fully tested and vetted t make sure there are minimal to no bugs in the system. Just because the HCL is passed through the legislation does not mean an immediate RV. It has to be first passed, put in the gazette, then it has to have its infrastructure formed and then tested. While some may say some of it is going on now, the argument here is that while this is true, integration testing and implementation has not been done. 


Second, any RV above 0.01 will be good for some. However, will it be good for Iraq? I am in the camp that the RV must be either on par with or greater than a dollar and then float from there. While a ten cent RV may be a start, it would still be wildly undervalued at that rate and would not de-dollarize the Iraqi economy. There are ways around this from the government perspective, i.e. making the dollar illegal. However, this would open black market opportunities and effectively make the 0.10 RV as worthless as it is today given the current rate. I subscribe to the belief that in order for the RV to be beneficial to the average Iraqi, it either must come out equal or greater than the dollar. The dollar must be seen in the Iraqi's eyes as being obsolete. They must be empowered to have the equal purchasing power that the USD affords today in Iraq. Without this psychological view and tangible asset, the de-dollarization in Iraq cannot happen rendering the RV moot. This is very much a psychological as it is tangible because it plays to the moral of how Iraqi's view their sovereignty as a nation. Using a national currency that one can take pride in will boost morale, confidence and people will want to spend their national currency. It's taking pride in one's own nation and moral is psychological in nature as money governs our spending, savings and investment behaviors. Iraqi's will go through a period of trying to survive day to day to an abundance of wealth and will want to put that new found wealth to use thus increasing their overall behavior and moral. A football team acts differently when its loosing than when it's trying to maintain its status quo than winning.  People are people all over the world. They are predictable in behavior and Iraqi's are no different when it comes to how they will act and be governed when they have a sense of positive self-worth. They are more fatigued over this than any one person on this board. They are ready to move forward into a new era of prosperity just as much as you, as I or as anyone else waiting for the RV.

 

Lastly, the RV is just the beginning. If it comes out at 0.10 then in all likelihood it will be expected to appreciate in value. How the RV happens and what controls are put in place will determine the speed at which it appreciates. Having the triggered pulled is one thing but the governance of the dinar, once the trigger has been pulled, is the real battle. Think of it like this, you are going to bike across the USA. You need to purchase the equipment, the clothes. You need to plan the routes you will likely take. You need to train all the while each day brings you one step closer to the start of the cross-country bike ride. The day it happens you are pumped, you probably couldn't sleep the night before as a gazillion things running through your head. Then the day comes, you put your foot on the pedal and push with all of your force you can muster and your bike travels 0.10 of a foot. But before long each pedal stroke propels you 1.18 feet and then 2.05 feet for each stroke before finally settling down into a rhythmic cadence in which you can sustain of let's say 2.35 feet for each stroke of the pedal. Along the way, you may speed up and slow down, but your bike moves ever forward to complete the journey. The rules of the road govern your speed and direction. There will be stop lights and stop signs, there will be obstacles to overcome and days when you feel as if nothing is going right. There will be other people in cars traveling faster and other bikers who travel slower. Along the way, you will meet and greet new friends, to which most you will like and some outright despise. You will need sustenance to keep your pedals moving and replacement of equipment. You may get a flat tire or a chain link may break. All the while you take pride with each stroke to know you are accomplishing something, anything to which will change your life for, hopefully, the better. The RV is the first push of the pedal. Everything that happens afterwards is what I am more concerned with.

 
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Sandfly for all y’all do!  Don’t get much chance to get on lately...but I’ve been wondering Adam...if the current leader doesn’t stay in (who has been imo way better than that Ol Malismuck -pun intended) who is waiting in the wings and how’s it looking (in your opinion) if they take the reins in Iraq? 😉

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