Latest Guru Opinions - Wednesday (& Tuesday) - 8/22/2018

[ronscarpa]

**************************** Wednesday Posts ***************************

8-22-2018   Newshound Guru Don961   Article:  "An economist reveals the bank's printing of large amounts of currency with small categories to replace them with damage"   imo...it's just as the article states...the merchants points out about the severe shortage of smaller denomination notes in the marketplace...the existing notes are damaged and need to be replaced...so the CBI is doing that...they just need to convince the banks to receive and replace them...as these notes do get replaced, people will start using them more and more...and introducing even smaller note categories and coins, with higher value, will not be such a shock after having to use all those high 3 zeroes for so long...Also, even the printing of more of these smaller categories shows a shift in monetary policy...they needed to print the higher 3 zeroes because that is what the currency value required for use in the marketplace...there has obviously been a shift in thinking and circumstances...so smaller, 3 zero-less notes will soon be all the rage...

8-22-2018   Newshound Guru Kaperoni  [What if the new gov doesn't care for the float?]  The government does not have anything to do with monetary policy monetary policy is a function of the CBI. And floating the currency is what countries do. Most of the world's currencies already float.  Floating the currency not only gives the CBI a mechanism to raise the exchange rate gradually based on supply and demand but gives them a tool to counter inflationary pressure created by large influxes of capital which we expect to come in as the country rebuilds.   Any other solution...such as an RV or RI is utter nonsense and not practical or reasonable...Countries do not do these things.

8-22-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   UPDATE ON THE ONGOING ELECTION SAGA...  Article quote: "A statement issued by Hadi al-Amri, the Fatah alliance, announced on Monday that the announcement of the largest bloc, due to be announced today, was postponed."  So we know the announcements were not made on Monday as planned. So what happened? Seems that three of the Kurdistan parties wanted to pullout of the Sadr Alliance to form the largest block... They wanted guarantees on 5 points in order to join the Sadr Alliance: 1. application of Article 140...but article 140 is not required. Really?  ...if this is needed to form the govt (as we now see it is...) and to form the govt is needed to RV then Article 140 is needed to get the RV.  2. the legislation of the law of oil and gas...Yes, a form of the oil and gas has been made into a agreement but the final version has NEVER been passed into law by parliament.  

8-22-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   3.  modify the share of the province of the federal budget (wants 17%) ...this was reduced down to 13% due to the oil that Kuridstan was selling beyond the GOI budgetary requirements. So they reduced the amount accordingly. ...Now Kurdistan wants it back.  4. general census of the population...They have not done census for years and need to update it...they will need to figure out who is who if they are going to award any surplus oil revenues to them.  5. asserting that all these points be "put forward with one basket”.  Remember these 5 points we already heard about over a month ago...So this is now being worked out. This is an explanation of the delay. 

8-22-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat     ...How long will it take.  At a minimum they hope to get this all resolved way before Aug 28th when they earlier announced already a plan to hold the first session of the new parliament.  So are the election results ratified already? YES, YES and YES again. ...Now they still fight for control over the largest block. This is all we are waiting for – what party has control and majority.  So we need this first session of parliament to occur and to get these new members sworn in, a new speaker and a new president and his deputies. Then we can safely say that the RV clock can begin ticking once again.  According to Iraq's constitution, parliament's first session must be held within 15 days from the date of the ratification 8/19 of the general election results. 

8-22-2018   Intel Guru Bruce   [via Pinkroses]  We are really in the best place we have every been for this to go down now. When it comes to the Intel side ...the number of sources that are able to speak is being reduced because people are under NDAs that weren’t before or a gag order or just plain were told to go dark or go quiet. ...Fortunately we have enough sources in some of the other areas that are coming through so that we are able to sort of see what is happening...and where we are in the process.  ...We know it is going to be a very good rate coming out and then it is going to go up...  

8-22-2018   Intel Guru Bruce   It may only take 2 to 3 trading sessions before it going to hit...the kind of numbers Shabi mentioned years ago back in 2012...6 years ago Shabi talked about the value of the Dinar able to sustain $16...I am telling you what I am hearing makes that look very possible.  ...I know the rate on the Dong is also good, better than we thought it was going to be...I want to clarify once and for all...THERE ARE NO ZEROS COMING OFF ANY CURRENCY... PERIOD AND END OF STORY...  I am feeling very confident about where we are right now. ...I have been given times. I can’t put them out. ...Same with rates. 

8-22-2018   Intel Guru Frank26   [via sunny]  For security reasons they are now reprinting LD's...specimens with batch numbers!   Huge!  Notes will be calculated so not to flood the market. . . This time around. . . told of small notes and metals. . . metals and lower denom’s  will co-exist together...2% is alive and happening!

8-22-2018   Newshound Guru Kaperoni   ...there are a lot of new factors now in play because the recent sanctions on Iran have caused Iraq's spread to rise just above 2% which technically maybe out of compliance and would require them then to start over with another 90 days once back in compliance. Personally I do not understand why the CBI is waiting now that they have met the 90-day window of compliance back in June. Waiting just puts them at risk which is silly.  If they are waiting for the formation of the government then they're probably waiting for the IMF consultation as well so we're really on hold here through the end of the year... [Side NOTE:  The latest CBI reported market rate is always listed on the left of this page...the last CBI market rate for the dinar was 1208 reported on 8-20-2018.  The CBI has not recorded a market rate outside of the 2% range since ~June 14.] 

 

**************************** Tuesday Posts ***************************

 

8-21-2018   Intel Guru Frank26  "Well-informed source said on Tuesday that Iraq’s President Fuad Masum will invite the parliament to hold its first session on August 30."  IN OTHER WORDS ...IMO …THE USA IS TOTALLY IN CONTROL OF ALL BREATHING IN IRAQ ...FROM THE ALREADY PICKED AND FORMED PARL TO THE IQD'S RI OF THE MR.

8-21-2018   Newshound Guru Kaperoni   I...got a note from another member who wrote the IMF and asked about Iraq's Article IV Consultation the response indicates that the IMF is waiting until after the formation of the government which could be next year hopefully sooner.  I have said in the past that I believe that consultation must occur prior to Iraq moving to Article VIII it's not a requirement but it would be a good review of the banking system and encouragement. If I am correct and the CBI is going to wait until that consultation occurs then we have a few more months to wait.  Though technically the CBI could write the letter to the IMF at any moment and request Article VIII acceptance. And if they are in compliance the IMF would would agree.

8-21-2018   Newshound Guru Currency365‏   Maybe Tuesday they will officially announce in public the largest Bloc...Also Abadi, Sadr, Hakim, Allawi, & Kurds form a new alliance against al-Malik...So MALIKI IS OUT!!! Also Haider Abadi expels Faleh Fayyad from the alliance of victory...I CAN SEE THE FINISH LINE...

8-21-2018   Intel Guru Frank26  [via clare] USA is in Control!  POTUS -basically slapped everyone...Iran...Maliki...it worked!!  USA wants them to RI!  Everything is done but there are variables...choke out Iran & kill the Virus of their political structure...Remember time frame ****8/18-28th****...  The minute you see the HCL...next breath is RI...August for preparation...September for implementation... The future is NOW!!!

8-21-2018   Intel Guru Delta   IQD EXCHANGE IN IRAQI MARKET FROM CBI ...
12-Aug 1212 1207
13-Aug 1209 1205
14-Aug 1208 1205
15-Aug 1209 1205
16-Aug 1209 1205
19-Aug 1208 1205
20-Aug 1208 1205...2% STILL IN COMPLIANCE-->..!

8-21-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat  We all should realize by now this sorting and re-counting was nothing more than a dog and pony show. It was a well-orchestrated stalling tactic that almost back-fired on them. But now it appears it is coming to an end as they move ahead.   Did they have a target date? No, as I said before it is not about a target date for the RV.  ...But what did happen is they needed to get the corruption under control and weed out or neutralize those involved. They are moving ahead again since they feel this is now accomplished.  ...We still have to hear from the CBI since this is the entity that will trigger the reinstatement...   I am focused on the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI). The CBI has recently told me there will be a massive re-education campaign to educate the people. They said to look at the billboards and TV but mostly the news media articles coming forth in the very near future. Yes, I think we are still looking at some timeframe maybe in September and certainly not before.
 

[md11fr8dawg]

Well Botz, rumors are pieces of information which was either heard and believed or made up. Opinions, now, well they are like keisters , everybody has one, but some stink more than others!!!