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Away from the protests .. Iraqis are waiting to activate the law of the National Oil Company in September


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9 minutes ago, Theseus said:

3% chance is better than a 0% chance, wouldn't you agree?

 

As far as "the huge collective balloon of anticipation" I have stated as much going back to when the SBA of 2016 first appeared on radar and have been lambasted for saying such. I have held firmly to this conjecture that the RV will not happen without the IMF's blessing and the successful completion of the SBA of 2016. What Iraq has been working on, has achieved and continues to work on is based on the SBA 2016 and the suggestions of each subsequent review. Each review is first a review of the benchmarks previously set up and then suggestions going forth. The CBI has not met all of the benchmarks and has had those that were missed waived. I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV. I am saying that the chance will be greatly increased once the IMF signs off on a successful completion of the SBA of 2016. Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will. Why? Once the GOI is officially seated, then it becomes the budget season for the formation of Iraq's Budget of 2019.  Historically, very little major legislation has been passed during this period. Based on a history of the GOI, the budget will need to be completed and passed, which takes us from August  2018 into February/March of 2019.  Given this, Ramadan, closely follows in May of that year, May 5 through June 4, little to anything will get done from April to the end of Ramadan but this is not to say backroom dealings will go on like it has in the past. However, the GOI will be distracted with its new formation for the first month and the budget may get little to no attention until beginning September, pushing everything back. Seeing an RV before the implementation of the 2019 budget and successful completion of the 2016 SBA is a non-sequitur, meaning it does not logically follow given the history and past experiences of the GOI.

Always like reading your post there Theseus. What would be your view point to Adam's take of waiting for the HCL and coming out at.10. Knowing that each has their own prospective? 

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1 hour ago, ChuckFinley said:

Always like reading your post there Theseus. What would be your view point to Adam's take of waiting for the HCL and coming out at.10. Knowing that each has their own prospective? 

While Adam is excellent at what he does, I am in disagreement with a couple of things. First, I agree the HCL must not only be passed but a full implementation of the HCL must be up and working. Just because the HCL is passed in legislature is not enough for an RV. The reason here is that there are certain logistical barriers that must be traversed before the HCL is really up and running. Think of it like this, I want to create a program for you to use on your computer. I haven't tested it. I have never put it into a live environment. However, I make all the promises of a fully running program that you will be able to use once you sign the paperwork. Do you use the program? Sure the technology has been in use before I come to you with the idea but the specific idea has never been tested or put together before on your system. Logically, no one would take receipt of such a program until it has been fully tested and vetted t make sure there are minimal to no bugs in the system. Just because the HCL is passed through the legislation does not mean an immediate RV. It has to be first passed, put in the gazette, then it has to have its infrastructure formed and then tested. While some may say some of it is going on now, the argument here is that while this is true, integration testing and implementation has not been done. 


Second, any RV above 0.01 will be good for some. However, will it be good for Iraq? I am in the camp that the RV must be either on par with or greater than a dollar and then float from there. While a ten cent RV may be a start, it would still be wildly undervalued at that rate and would not de-dollarize the Iraqi economy. There are ways around this from the government perspective, i.e. making the dollar illegal. However, this would open black market opportunities and effectively make the 0.10 RV as worthless as it is today given the current rate. I subscribe to the belief that in order for the RV to be beneficial to the average Iraqi, it either must come out equal or greater than the dollar. The dollar must be seen in the Iraqi's eyes as being obsolete. They must be empowered to have the equal purchasing power that the USD affords today in Iraq. Without this psychological view and tangible asset, the de-dollarization in Iraq cannot happen rendering the RV moot. This is very much a psychological as it is tangible because it plays to the moral of how Iraqi's view their sovereignty as a nation. Using a national currency that one can take pride in will boost morale, confidence and people will want to spend their national currency. It's taking pride in one's own nation and moral is psychological in nature as money governs our spending, savings and investment behaviors. Iraqi's will go through a period of trying to survive day to day to an abundance of wealth and will want to put that new found wealth to use thus increasing their overall behavior and moral. A football team acts differently when its loosing than when it's trying to maintain its status quo than winning.  People are people all over the world. They are predictable in behavior and Iraqi's are no different when it comes to how they will act and be governed when they have a sense of positive self-worth. They are more fatigued over this than any one person on this board. They are ready to move forward into a new era of prosperity just as much as you, as I or as anyone else waiting for the RV.

 

Lastly, the RV is just the beginning. If it comes out at 0.10 then in all likelihood it will be expected to appreciate in value. How the RV happens and what controls are put in place will determine the speed at which it appreciates. Having the triggered pulled is one thing but the governance of the dinar, once the trigger has been pulled, is the real battle. Think of it like this, you are going to bike across the USA. You need to purchase the equipment, the clothes. You need to plan the routes you will likely take. You need to train all the while each day brings you one step closer to the start of the cross-country bike ride. The day it happens you are pumped, you probably couldn't sleep the night before as a gazillion things running through your head. Then the day comes, you put your foot on the pedal and push with all of your force you can muster and your bike travels 0.10 of a foot. But before long each pedal stroke propels you 1.18 feet and then 2.05 feet for each stroke before finally settling down into a rhythmic cadence in which you can sustain of let's say 2.35 feet for each stroke of the pedal. Along the way, you may speed up and slow down, but your bike moves ever forward to complete the journey. The rules of the road govern your speed and direction. There will be stop lights and stop signs, there will be obstacles to overcome and days when you feel as if nothing is going right. There will be other people in cars traveling faster and other bikers who travel slower. Along the way, you will meet and greet new friends, to which most you will like and some outright despise. You will need sustenance to keep your pedals moving and replacement of equipment. You may get a flat tire or a chain link may break. All the while you take pride with each stroke to know you are accomplishing something, anything to which will change your life for, hopefully, the better. The RV is the first push of the pedal. Everything that happens afterwards is what I am more concerned with.

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4 minutes ago, Theseus said:

While Adam is excellent at what he does, I am in disagreement with a couple of things. First, I agree the HCL must not only be passed but a full implementation of the HCL must be up and working. Just because the HCL is passed in legislature is not enough for an RV. The reason here is that there are certain logistical barriers that must be traversed before the HCL is really up and running. Think of it like this, I want to create a program for you to use on your computer. I haven't tested it. I have never put it into a live environment. However, I make all the promises of a fully running program that you will be able to use once you sign the paperwork. Do you use the program? Sure the technology has been in use before I come to you with the idea but the specific idea has never been tested or put together before on your system. Logically, no one would take receipt of such a program until it has been fully tested and vetted t make sure there are minimal to no bugs in the system. Just because the HCL is passed through the legislation does not mean an immediate RV. It has to be first passed, put in the gazette, then it has to have its infrastructure formed and then tested. While some may say some of it is going on now, the argument here is that while this is true, integration testing and implementation has not been done. 


Second, any RV above 0.01 will be good for some. However, will it be good for Iraq? I am in the camp that the RV must be either on par with or greater than a dollar and then float from there. While a ten cent RV may be a start, it would still be wildly undervalued at that rate and would not de-dollarize the Iraqi economy. There are ways around this from the government perspective, i.e. making the dollar illegal. However, this would open black market opportunities and effectively make the 0.10 RV as worthless as it is today given the current rate. I subscribe to the belief that in order for the RV to be beneficial to the average Iraqi, it either must come out equal or greater than the dollar. The dollar must be seen in the Iraqi's eyes as being obsolete. They must be empowered to have the equal purchasing power that the USD affords today in Iraq. Without this psychological view and tangible asset, the de-dollarization in Iraq cannot happen rendering the RV moot. This is very much a psychological as it is tangible because it plays to the moral of how Iraqi's view their sovereignty as a nation. Using a national currency that one can take pride in will boost morale, confidence and people will want to spend their national currency. It's taking pride in one's own nation and moral is psychological in nature as money governs our spending, savings and investment behaviors. Iraqi's will go through a period of trying to survive day to day to an abundance of wealth and will want to put that new found wealth to use thus increasing their overall behavior and moral. A football team acts differently when its loosing than when it's trying to maintain its status quo than winning.  People are people all over the world. They are predictable in behavior and Iraqi's are no different when it comes to how they will act and be governed when they have a sense of positive self-worth. They are more fatigued over this than any one person on this board. They are ready to move forward into a new era of prosperity just as much as you, as I or as anyone else waiting for the RV.

 

Lastly, the RV is just the beginning. If it comes out at 0.10 then in all likelihood it will be expected to appreciate in value. How the RV happens and what controls are put in place will determine the speed at which it appreciates. Having the triggered pulled is one thing but the governance of the dinar, once the trigger has been pulled, is the real battle. Think of it like this, you are going to bike across the USA. You need to purchase the equipment, the clothes. You need to plan the routes you will likely take. You need to train all the while each day brings you one step closer to the start of the cross-country bike ride. The day it happens you are pumped, you probably couldn't sleep the night before as a gazillion things running through your head. Then the day comes, you put your foot on the pedal and push with all of your force you can muster and your bike travels 0.10 of a foot. But before long each pedal stroke propels you 1.18 feet and then 2.05 feet for each stroke before finally settling down into a rhythmic cadence in which you can sustain of let's say 2.35 feet for each stroke of the pedal. Along the way, you may speed up and slow down, but your bike moves ever forward to complete the journey. The rules of the road govern your speed and direction. There will be stop lights and stop signs, there will be obstacles to overcome and days when you feel as if nothing is going right. There will be other people in cars traveling faster and other bikers who travel slower. Along the way, you will meet and greet new friends, to which most you will like and some outright despise. You will need sustenance to keep your pedals moving and replacement of equipment. You may get a flat tire or a chain link may break. All the while you take pride with each stroke to know you are accomplishing something, anything to which will change your life for, hopefully, the better. The RV is the first push of the pedal. Everything that happens afterwards is what I am more concerned with.

 

 

 

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One Theseus's note, I tend to "try" to figure out what is going on and the then the process or order for it all to go down. Even if I take a break, I can always check my notes/list later on.

 

top of my head right now

 

Electoral Commission - done

Federal Court - Ratify elections

New Government Formed

1st Parliament Session

 

Sept 5th National Oil Company

Article 140

HCL

 

IMF

 

Note:Use the forum Tags to help you get right to the thread, Yota and Butifdrm put articles in right Tag categories. They post in the early mornings and the early afternoon.

 

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17 minutes ago, ChuckFinley said:

Thank you Thesis for taking the time to respond. This is why I enjoy reading your post, extremely detailed and well presented. 


You see what he is saying now, we are really waiting for things to get done, but the main thing is the IMF Article 8 and the currency to go International.

 

You want the HCL, but you need IMF Article 8.

 

:twocents: why we see eye to eye and follow the samethings

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2 minutes ago, newbieDA said:


You see what he is saying now, we are really waiting for things to get done, but the main thing is the IMF Article 8 and the currency to go International.

 

You want the HCL, but you need IMF Article 8.

 

:twocents: why we see eye to eye and follow the samethings

We are connecting the dots. :bravo:

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20 hours ago, Theseus said:

3% chance is better than a 0% chance, wouldn't you agree?

 

As far as "the huge collective balloon of anticipation" I have stated as much going back to when the SBA of 2016 first appeared on radar and have been lambasted for saying such. I have held firmly to this conjecture that the RV will not happen without the IMF's blessing and the successful completion of the SBA of 2016. What Iraq has been working on, has achieved and continues to work on is based on the SBA 2016 and the suggestions of each subsequent review. Each review is first a review of the benchmarks previously set up and then suggestions going forth. The CBI has not met all of the benchmarks and has had those that were missed waived. I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV. I am saying that the chance will be greatly increased once the IMF signs off on a successful completion of the SBA of 2016. Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will. Why? Once the GOI is officially seated, then it becomes the budget season for the formation of Iraq's Budget of 2019.  Historically, very little major legislation has been passed during this period. Based on a history of the GOI, the budget will need to be completed and passed, which takes us from August  2018 into February/March of 2019.  Given this, Ramadan, closely follows in May of that year, May 5 through June 4, little to anything will get done from April to the end of Ramadan but this is not to say backroom dealings will go on like it has in the past. However, the GOI will be distracted with its new formation for the first month and the budget may get little to no attention until beginning September, pushing everything back. Seeing an RV before the implementation of the 2019 budget and successful completion of the 2016 SBA is a non-sequitur, meaning it does not logically follow given the history and past experiences of the GOI.

 

This is one of the most depressing posts I have ever read.  

I truly hope you are wrong, wrong, wrong!

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9 hours ago, Floridian said:

 

This is one of the most depressing posts I have ever read.  

I truly hope you are wrong, wrong, wrong!

Everyone hopes the analysis is wrong and Iraq RVd the dinar yesterday, hell 5 years ago. But the fact is Iraq is currently in an agreement with IMF to work on their economy and there is a checklist they must accomplish before they successfully complete that agreement. GOI isn't seated yet and there will be no major policy changes until they are. So whine and moan and claim this post or that post is the most disappointing all you want but the facts are the facts and they tend to be disappointing when they aren't aligned with what we want when we want. What is even more depressing is getting told year after year this is the year in which the RV will happen and being here year after year to see no RV going into Budget Season.  Being lambasted by people who because they believe "this is the year" and yet cannot point to a single fact as to why this is it. People getting all hyped when a single grain of sand moves. When people cannot separate emotion from the investment. When people don't get the RV they wanted when they wanted is the biggest disappointment. When people pay with your emotions because something or someone (not a Luigi guru) has told them that it will happen, already has happened or will happen within a day, a month or within the current year. How people have not figured out the GOI legislative cycle as to when things need to be done and what occurs during that cycle. When Iraq has holidays and how long they will be out for. Yeah, there is a lot of things to be more disappointed in but I guarantee that post is the furthest thing from one of the most depressing posts you have ever read.  Hell yeah, I wish the analysis is wrong and it RVd five years ag,. but wishes are not facts and unicorns don't fart rainbows.

 

There is one single fact you must remember: No one knows but the CBI when the RV will happen. Take that, remember it and hum a happy tune until it does.

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1 hour ago, Theseus said:

Everyone hopes the analysis is wrong and Iraq RVd the dinar yesterday, hell 5 years ago. But the fact is Iraq is currently in an agreement with IMF to work on their economy and there is a checklist they must accomplish before they successfully complete that agreement. GOI isn't seated yet and there will be no major policy changes until they are. So whine and moan and claim this post or that post is the most disappointing all you want but the facts are the facts and they tend to be disappointing when they aren't aligned with what we want when we want. What is even more depressing is getting told year after year this is the year in which the RV will happen and being here year after year to see no RV going into Budget Season.  Being lambasted by people who because they believe "this is the year" and yet cannot point to a single fact as to why this is it. People getting all hyped when a single grain of sand moves. When people cannot separate emotion from the investment. When people don't get the RV they wanted when they wanted is the biggest disappointment. When people pay with your emotions because something or someone (not a Luigi guru) has told them that it will happen, already has happened or will happen within a day, a month or within the current year. How people have not figured out the GOI legislative cycle as to when things need to be done and what occurs during that cycle. When Iraq has holidays and how long they will be out for. Yeah, there is a lot of things to be more disappointed in but I guarantee that post is the furthest thing from one of the most depressing posts you have ever read.  Hell yeah, I wish the analysis is wrong and it RVd five years ag,. but wishes are not facts and unicorns don't fart rainbows.

 

There is one single fact you must remember: No one knows but the CBI when the RV will happen. Take that, remember it and hum a happy tune until it does.

 

Gee, thanks Theseus.  I didn't know, until you told me, that I was a dumb-ass poster who whines and moans and listens to Gurus.

From now on, I will certainly absorb your "facts" and take them as my own.  As you say "facts are facts" and you have them all.

Thank you for your brilliant discernment of what is going to happen and when.  Love your timetable!

 

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5 hours ago, Floridian said:

 

Gee, thanks Theseus.  I didn't know, until you told me, that I was a dumb-ass poster who whines and moans and listens to Gurus.

From now on, I will certainly absorb your "facts" and take them as my own.  As you say "facts are facts" and you have them all.

Thank you for your brilliant discernment of what is going to happen and when.  Love your timetable!

 

First off it's not my timetable. Second, I have the facts that are presented based on media reports and other websites. They are not mine they are Iraq's. You point your disappointment in the wrong direction. I only call it as I see it and that is my opinion. You responded to my post as the most disappointed post you have ever read. Next time why don't you keep the comment to yourself because at least I am not telling you that I had a dream last night and something big is going to happen Thursday for the umpteenth time. You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result. I have been saying this since the SBA 2016 was known to me and modified it when needd. I have stated since 2014 the HCL (not the agreement with the Kurds) needs to be implemented not passed. What I stated in my post is nothing I haven't stated before and will continue to hold to those. I remember a very long thread about a year or two years ago, people said that Iraq would do this and that and they would RV that year.  Did that happen, nope. Will it happen this year? Do you honestly think given the fact that the GOI is not seated, the 2019 budget has not been passed and while the third review of the SBA 2016 was discussed in November 2017, it has yet to be conducted much less reported on, the HCL only 1/3rd of the way done, Erbil agreement still not policy, article 140 still in contention, ISIS (still) and Iran (sanctions, southern Iraq protests, Solemani) mucking things up for Iraq, that an RV will happen this year? I can say with 120% certainty that it won't because of what is going on in Iraq, currently. I have and will continue to maintain that the RV will not happen before Iraq completes the SBA of 2016. They tried to do it after the SBA of 2009 and that attempt led to other things but it is what convinced me that they will do it this time around mainly because of Abadi and what he has accomplished and will accomplish when he regains office. The facts are Iraq's. I can only put analysis to those facts to interpret them in my best fashion. I don't claim to have all of them only what I have seen with my own two eyes. All analysis is speculation and all speculation is based on opinion and experience. You don't like it, form your own and share it. No one is stopping you from doing so. Please tell us when you think the RV will happen. Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have. It might change things and it might not but to come to the table and decry an analysis without even presenting a different one other than "I hope it will happen this year" doesn't add to the conversation.

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3 hours ago, Theseus said:

First off it's not my timetable. Second, I have the facts that are presented based on media reports and other websites. They are not mine they are Iraq's. You point your disappointment in the wrong direction. I only call it as I see it and that is my opinion. You responded to my post as the most disappointed post you have ever read. Next time why don't you keep the comment to yourself because at least I am not telling you that I had a dream last night and something big is going to happen Thursday for the umpteenth time. You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result. I have been saying this since the SBA 2016 was known to me and modified it when needd. I have stated since 2014 the HCL (not the agreement with the Kurds) needs to be implemented not passed. What I stated in my post is nothing I haven't stated before and will continue to hold to those. I remember a very long thread about a year or two years ago, people said that Iraq would do this and that and they would RV that year.  Did that happen, nope. Will it happen this year? Do you honestly think given the fact that the GOI is not seated, the 2019 budget has not been passed and while the third review of the SBA 2016 was discussed in November 2017, it has yet to be conducted much less reported on, the HCL only 1/3rd of the way done, Erbil agreement still not policy, article 140 still in contention, ISIS (still) and Iran (sanctions, southern Iraq protests, Solemani) mucking things up for Iraq, that an RV will happen this year? I can say with 120% certainty that it won't because of what is going on in Iraq, currently. I have and will continue to maintain that the RV will not happen before Iraq completes the SBA of 2016. They tried to do it after the SBA of 2009 and that attempt led to other things but it is what convinced me that they will do it this time around mainly because of Abadi and what he has accomplished and will accomplish when he regains office. The facts are Iraq's. I can only put analysis to those facts to interpret them in my best fashion. I don't claim to have all of them only what I have seen with my own two eyes. All analysis is speculation and all speculation is based on opinion and experience. You don't like it, form your own and share it. No one is stopping you from doing so. Please tell us when you think the RV will happen. Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have. It might change things and it might not but to come to the table and decry an analysis without even presenting a different one other than "I hope it will happen this year" doesn't add to the conversation.

 

Okay then!

You said “Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have.” 

It will take awhile to go through your voluminous posts and compose a response.  Hang in there and I will give it my best shot.

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4 hours ago, Theseus said:

First off it's not my timetable. Second, I have the facts that are presented based on media reports and other websites. They are not mine they are Iraq's. You point your disappointment in the wrong direction. I only call it as I see it and that is my opinion. You responded to my post as the most disappointed post you have ever read. Next time why don't you keep the comment to yourself because at least I am not telling you that I had a dream last night and something big is going to happen Thursday for the umpteenth time. You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result. I have been saying this since the SBA 2016 was known to me and modified it when needd. I have stated since 2014 the HCL (not the agreement with the Kurds) needs to be implemented not passed. What I stated in my post is nothing I haven't stated before and will continue to hold to those. I remember a very long thread about a year or two years ago, people said that Iraq would do this and that and they would RV that year.  Did that happen, nope. Will it happen this year? Do you honestly think given the fact that the GOI is not seated, the 2019 budget has not been passed and while the third review of the SBA 2016 was discussed in November 2017, it has yet to be conducted much less reported on, the HCL only 1/3rd of the way done, Erbil agreement still not policy, article 140 still in contention, ISIS (still) and Iran (sanctions, southern Iraq protests, Solemani) mucking things up for Iraq, that an RV will happen this year? I can say with 120% certainty that it won't because of what is going on in Iraq, currently. I have and will continue to maintain that the RV will not happen before Iraq completes the SBA of 2016. They tried to do it after the SBA of 2009 and that attempt led to other things but it is what convinced me that they will do it this time around mainly because of Abadi and what he has accomplished and will accomplish when he regains office. The facts are Iraq's. I can only put analysis to those facts to interpret them in my best fashion. I don't claim to have all of them only what I have seen with my own two eyes. All analysis is speculation and all speculation is based on opinion and experience. You don't like it, form your own and share it. No one is stopping you from doing so. Please tell us when you think the RV will happen. Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have. It might change things and it might not but to come to the table and decry an analysis without even presenting a different one other than "I hope it will happen this year" doesn't add to the conversation.

 

Okay, here you go:

 

 

Theseus:  In this thread, on Friday, you said “It might take a few months but the window opens up around July 19, 2019, the completion date of the SBA of 2016.”

 

Theseus:  On Saturday, you said “I do not see July 19, 2019 as an RV date but as the opening of the window for the best chance, Iraq has to RV after such date. So it could be 2023 before an RV or it could be 2019 before an RV”

 

Theseus:  “Could it happen before then? Sure. But the saying goes there is a slim chance in hell that it will.”

 

Me:  Oh, how wrong I was to say your date of 2023 was disappointing.  How could I say such a thing?  :facepalm2:

 

Theseus:  You said “I am in the camp that the RV must be either on par with or greater than a dollar and then float from there. While a ten cent RV may be a start, it would still be wildly undervalued at that rate and would not de-dollarize the Iraqi economy.”

 

Me:  Well, I sure hope you’re right on the $1.00 RV, but I have a different opinion.  As I’ve said many times to others, I sure hope I’m wrong and you’re right!

 

Theseus:  You said “You responded to my post as the most disappointed post you have ever read.”

 

Me:  Yes indeed, 2023 was quite disappointing.  Anyone else feel that way?

 

Theseus:  “Next time why don't you keep the comment to yourself because at least I am not telling you that I had a dream last night and something big is going to happen Thursday for the umpteenth time.”

 

Me:  Really, Thesus, do I strike you as someone who believes a person who says they had a dream last night, so RV tomorrow? 😂

 

Theseus:  “You have better, then come forth with it prove it to everyone that given the facts shown will produce some other result”

 

Me:  I had better come forth with proof you say?  A little threatening, no?????, considering we are all just giving our opinions and trying to figure this out.  I know you think you have “PROOF”.  Let me tell you, you have nothing.  Iraq will do what they want, when they want.  They will tell you information or withhold information.

We are all just giving our best guess as to what is really happening and when.

 

Theseus:  “……that an RV will happen this year? I can say with 120% certainty that it won't because of what is going on in Iraq, currently.

 

Me:  120% certainty huh?  Okay. 😂

 

Theseus:  “All analysis is speculation and all speculation is based on opinion and experience. You don't like it, form your own and share it. No one is stopping you from doing so. Please tell us when you think the RV will happen. Come on give us your best guess and your reason for guessing the way you do, based off the facts you have.”

 

Me:  You  want my best guess and reason based off the FACTS I have?  I only have what I read on the Iraqi news.  No one has FACTS, Mister.  You're the only one with FACTS.

 

Me:  Do you see what a “high horse” you place yourself on?

Everyone else is an idiot and you’re the sharpest knife in the drawer.  We get it!

 

Me:  Okay, so here’s my answer to when and how much:

 

As to when:  Shabibi said the beginning of the year is the best time to revalue the dinar.  I forget the exact wording but the gist of it was that you wouldn’t have to go back and adjust all the figures as you would if we were well into the year.    I heard him say it in a question and answer session, back in the day.  I actually had the video saved for future reference, but I had an old computer at the time and it has since crashed, and had to be replaced.  Unfortunately, I lost an awful lot of things I was saving, not only dinar information.  Based on that, I think the RV will be January, 2019 or as close as possible to the beginning of 2019.

 

As to how much:  Adam says 10 cents and no one complains.  I get such a kick out of that, because every time I say 10 cents, people don’t like it.  I’m basing my opinion on information posted on the Sulaymania Airport site and also the IATA site.  Here are the links as to how much currency you are allowed to bring in/out of Iraq.

I have posted these links on DV before.  When I first checked these sites, they each had 200,000 dinar as the maximum.  That would have been a 5 cent RV.  I was none-too-pleased.  After about a month’s time, they changed it to 100,000 dinar, a 10 cent RV, and it has remained that way for many, many months.  I have come to realize that $100,000 per million dinar is a great return for Dinarians, much as I would love your $1.00 estimation to be correct.  Believe me, if you are right, you will get no argument from me.

 

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com

 

http://sul-airport.com/allowance.php

 

My feeling is that Iraq will take the zeros off the currency, as they have said many times in articles, making the dinar in Iraq 1, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 (lower denoms).  This is what they are used to, having used dollars for so many years.  I think we will be allowed to turn in our notes, keeping the 3 zeros, at an Exchange Rate of 10 cents, giving us $100,000 per million.

 

So then, this is only my opinion.  I do not have FACTS, like you.  I have an opinion like everyone else.

Again, I will be happy to be wrong if the Dinar comes out at $1.00.  That would be fantastic.  I would be ecstatic.

 

I hope you realize I am not arguing with your “FACTS”.  The thing that got to me was your date of 2023.

Yes, I found that post very disappointing, and I’m sure I was not the only one.

 

WOW!  Longest post I ever made in my life!

 

Edited by Floridian
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