Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages

[Man_Kind]

On ‎10‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 7:08 AM, ChuckFinley said:

$2.08 in Newport News VA - Costco

Hey Chuck !

My company sends me to the Newport News Ship yard a few times a month. 

Designing electrical systems for the Subs.

[yota691]

Expectations of higher oil prices in world markets

30/10/2017 12:00 am   BAGHDAD (Reuters) -   The World Bank expects oil prices to rise in 2018 as a result of steady demand growth, reduced production agreed between oil-exporting countries and stable US oil production.  Prices for energy items - including oil, natural gas and coal - are expected to hit 4 percent in 2018 after jumping 28 percent this year, the World Bank said in the commodity markets outlook for October.  "Energy prices are recovering in response to steady demand and lower inventories, but much depends on whether oil producers seek to cut production," said John Puffs, chief economist and lead author of the publication. The developments in China will play an important role in the course of metal prices. " Oil prices have been revised down slightly from Nissan's forecasts and are still at risk. Supply from producers such as Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela may fluctuate. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers may agree to continue production cuts to maintain pressure on prices to raise them.  However, non-renewal of the agreement could push prices down, and could also increase the production of shale oil in the United States, and natural gas prices are expected to rise by 3 percent in 2018.

[yota691]

Oil exceeds $ 60

 

Economy News _ Baghdad Oil prices rose on Monday after the price of Brent crude price of $ 60 a barrel at the beginning of the deal because of expectations to extend the agreement led by OPEC to reduce production and scheduled to end in March. Brent crude futures were $ 60.53 a barrel by 0054 GMT, up 9 cents, or 0.15 percent, from the previous close.  It is still close to the Brent high since July 2015 and has risen more than 36 percent since reaching its lowest level in 2017 in June.  Futures for the WTI rose 13 cents, or 0.24 percent, to $ 54.03 a barrel.  OPEC, Russia and nine other oil-producing countries have agreed to cut about 1.8 million barrels per day to get rid of oil supplies.  The agreement is in effect until March 2018, but both Saudi Arabia and Russia, which lead the effort, have expressed their support for extending the deal.  OPEC is due to meet formally at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 30.   Views 16   Date Added 30/10/2017

[yota691]

International Monetary Fund predicts a decline in growth and a chronic deficit in the balance of oil exporting countries

 

Tuesday, October 31,

 

Alsumaria News / Baghdad , predicted the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday, a decline in the growth and the chronic deficit in the budget of the oil - exporting countries, especially with the survival of oil prices up to $ 50 -60 per barrel.  The IMF said in a report released today by the effectiveness held in Marrakech with Morocco on the prospects of the regional economy for the Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and seen by Alsumaria News that "it is expected to reach the overall growth decline to an end in oil - exporting countries at the level of 1.7% in 2017, due to the decline in oil production in accordance with the agreement led by OPEC , and in contrast, is expected to recover non-oil growth to register about 2.6% in 2017 with the adoption of a slower pace of reducing the budget deficit.   "Despite the progress that has already been achieved, low oil prices have led to the continuation of the large fiscal deficit in many oil-exporting countries, underscoring the need to continue to focus on reducing the deficit," the report said.  "The budget deficit in the oil-exporting countries jumped to 10.6 percent of GDP in 2016, up from 1.1 percent of GDP in 2014," the report said, predicting that "this rate will fall by half this year thanks to the limited rise in prices Oil and significant efforts to reduce the deficit. "  The report predicted that "the survival of oil prices in the range of 50-60 dollars a barrel, the oil-exporting countries will have to continue efforts to reduce the budget deficit - and intensify these efforts in some cases."

[yota691]

31-10-2017 02:00 PM

The International Monetary Fund expects a decline in growth and a deficit in the budget of the oil-exporting country

 

 

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday predicted a slowdown in growth and a chronic deficit in the oil-exporting countries' budget, especially as oil prices remain at $ 50- $ 60 per barrel. 

In a report released today at an event in Marrakech, Morocco, on the prospects for the regional economy of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the IMF said that "overall growth in oil-exporting countries is expected to reach 1.7% in 2017, Oil in accordance with the OPEC-led agreement. In contrast, non-oil growth is expected to recover by about 2.6% in 2017 with a slower pace of reduction in the budget deficit. ' 

"Despite the progress already made, low oil prices have led to continued large fiscal deficits in many oil-exporting countries, underscoring the need to continue to focus on deficit reduction," the report said.

"The budget deficit of the oil-exporting countries jumped to 10.6 percent of GDP in 2016, up from 1.1 percent of GDP in 2014," the report said, predicting that this figure will be halved in the current year due to the limited rise in prices Oil and significant efforts to reduce the deficit '.

[ComPLX]

IMF tells Gulf states to speed up shift away from oil

Financial institution projected GCC economic growth at just 0.5 percent this year

The IMF on Tuesday advised energy-rich Gulf economies to speed up their diversification away from oil after projecting the worst growth for the region since the global financial crisis.

The IMF on Tuesday advised energy-rich Gulf economies to speed up their diversification away from oil after projecting the worst growth for the region since the global financial crisis.

Oil exporters in the Middle East, especially those in the Gulf Cooperation Council, have been hit hard by the collapse in crude prices which provided a major part of their finances.

Following the slump, GCC members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE undertook fiscal measures and reforms to cut public spending and boost non-oil revenues.

 

 

As a result, economic growth has slowed considerably as the GCC six and other regional oil exporters posted huge budget deficits.

In its Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday projected GCC economic growth at just 0.5 percent this year, the worst since the 0.3 percent growth in 2009 following the global financial crisis.

"It is the right time for GCC economies to accelerate their diversification outside oil and to promote a greater role for the private sector to lead growth and create additional jobs," said Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia at IMF.

 

"Preparing their economies to the post-oil era is something that is becoming a priority for authorities all over the GCC," Azour told AFP.

"We are seeing governments developing diversification strategies and introducing a certain number of reforms to allow the economy to be prepared for the post-oil era. And those are important reforms," he said.

Non-oil sector on rise

Azour said the GCC growth projections are mainly driven by the oil producers deal to cut output to bolster low crude prices which meant GCC states pumped and exported less oil.

The IMF report also projected that the economies of oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa -- also including Iran, Iraq, Algeria, Libya and Yemen -- would grow 1.7 percent, down from 5.6 percent the previous year.

MENA oil importers, on the contrary, were expected to expand 4.3 percent this year, up from 3.6 percent in 2016, the report added.

Azour said the IMF was projecting flat growth this year for Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the MENA region, but the non-oil sector was growing faster than expected.

 

This was an indication "that the Saudi economy is bottoming up and it shows that the gradual implementation of the fiscal adjustment now is going to allow the Saudi economy to grow faster," Azour said.

He estimated that Saudi Arabia and UAE could achieve a fiscal balance by between 2020 and 2022.

Azour said the introduction of the five percent value-added tax (VAT) was one of the reform measures that would allow the GCC countries to diversify their revenues away from oil.

"Its low rate will have a limited impact on price rise and inflation," said Azour, adding that VAT is estimated to generate between 1.5 and two percent of gross domestic product annually.

So far, Saudi Arabia and UAE have said they would apply the tax at the start of next year while the remaining four nations have the whole of 2018 to implement it.

 

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/article/382407?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_en_pm

[yota691]

IMF projects deficits of $320B for Mideast oil exporters

By

 AP

 31st October 2017 

0

8

 views

 

 

International Monetary Fund logo is seen inside the headquarters at the end of the IMF/World Bank annual meetings

 

The Middle East’s oil producers are bracing for continued pressure from lower oil prices, with the International Monetary Fund projecting cumulative budget deficits of $320 billion over the next five years, according to a new report released on Tuesday.

 

Approximately half of that amount – or $160 billion – will be sustained by energy-rich Gulf Arab nations between 2018 and 2022.

Still, the projection is significantly lower than the shortfall of $350 billion that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain racked up since 2015, when oil prices plunged to their lowest in years.

The IMF said economic growth in these countries bottomed out to around half a percent in 2017.

A major diplomatic rift between four Arab countries and Qatar underway over the past several months has so far had limited impact on economic growth, though the IMF said the impasse could have an impact on investors’ appetites in the region.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s top oil producers and the Arab region’s biggest economy, is introducing economic and social reforms to wean the country off its reliance on oil for revenue. In a move aimed in part at boosting women’s participation in the economy, Saudi Arabia lifted a longstanding ban on women driving that was seen as a damper on potential economic growth.

Jihad Azour, the IMF’s Mideast and Central Asia department director, said that for the Saudi economy to see a real boost, the decision to allow women to drive has to go hand-in-hand with creating more opportunities for women in the workplace.

“I think the real important element here is more on gradual recognition and taking gradual measures to allow women to participate more into the economy,” he said. “Allowing women to have better access to (the) market, to participate into the economy and create jobs.”

Azour, who spoke with The Associated Press for the launch of the report, said countries in the region must push ahead with structural reforms. The IMF cautions that across the Middle East, growth is below what is needed to “effectively tackle the unemployment challenges” of the region.

Conflicts in Yemen, Libya, Syria and Iraq are also having an impact on the region’s overall economic outlook. In Yemen, for example, inflation shot to nearly 40 percent in 2015 and is projected to be nearly 30 percent next year.

Meanwhile, oil importing countries are benefiting from lower oil prices, but Egypt, for example, is also battling inflation of close to 30 percent.

The IMF has encouraged Mideast oil importers and exporters to reduce spending and find new sources of revenue by introducing new taxes and lifting subsidies.

In the outlook report, the IMF said progress on these efforts has been uneven. Oil-exporters like Iran, the UAE and Qatar have had lower budget deficits in comparison to their GDP than Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Oman. That’s in part because Iran, for example, is less dependent on oil revenues than Saudi Arabia.

The IMF’s figures are based on assumed oil prices of about $50 a barrel through the end of this year and next, up from last year’s average of $43. On Friday, Brent crude, the international benchmark oil, rose above $60 for the first time since 2015 as Saudi Arabia signaled its would support extending an agreement by major oil producers to limit output beyond next March.

[Wiljor]

OIL EXTENDS TWO-YEAR HIGH AMID OPEC RESOLVE, IRAQ DISRUPTIONS Iraq, October 31, 2017  Oil extended a two-year high above $60 a barrel in London amid growing signs that OPEC and Russia will press on with supply curbs, and a brief disruption in exports from Iraq’s Kurdish region. Brent crude futures added 0.4 percent. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last week backed extending production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies beyond March, following a similar endorsement by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month. Iraq’s Kurds resumed oil exports to Turkey after a short suspension, highlighting uncertainty in the region, which in September voted to secede from the rest of the country. “High OPEC compliance” and “roaring oil demand growth combined over the last few months have accelerated the rebalancing of the oil market,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “Reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia are mulling over the prospect of an extension” have “played a part in buoying market sentiment and recently lifting oil prices.” Both Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, and U.S. marker West Texas Intermediate crude have jumped in October amid speculation that OPEC and partners including Russia will prolong output cuts aimed at reducing a global glut. World stockpiles are down to about 160 million barrels above the five-year average and prices are heading toward “fair” levels, according to Qatar Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada. Brent for December settlement, which expires Tuesday, rose as much as 45 cents to $60.89 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest since July 2015. It was at $60.67 at 1:21 p.m. in London. Prices gained 4.7 percent last week. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $6.59 to WTI. See also: Oil Investors Roll the Dice on OPEC as Saudi Prince Ups the Ante WTI for December delivery was at $54.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 21 cents. Total volume traded was about 36 percent below the 100-day average. Prices on Friday advanced 2.4 percent to $53.90, capping a 4.7 percent weekly gain. Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurds began pumping oil again to Ceyhan, Turkey, at about 1:25 p.m. local time after Kurdish crude stopped arriving at the Mediterranean port at 4 a.m., the port agent said by email. Information on the amount of oil flowing wasn’t immediately available, the agent said. The halt came days after Iraqi troops captured oil fields from Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq’s disputed Kirkuk province. Shipments by pipeline averaged 264,000 barrels a day before the stoppage, less than half their normal daily level of 600,000 barrels. Exports from Kirkuk, which had been flowing through the same pipeline network to Ceyhan, remained halted as of Monday, the port agent said. Oil-market news: Iraq added a fifth offshore crude-exporting facility with a capacity of 900,000 barrels a day to boost shipments by sea, the nation’s oil ministry said in an emailed statement, citing Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi. The financiers and corporate chieftains gathered for Saudi Arabia’s ‘Davos in the Desert’ heard the same message again and again. From the crown prince down, Saudi leaders wanted no room for doubt: the initial public offering of oil giant Aramco is “on track” for 2018. Among U.S. explorers, the new emphasis is on getting the most output possible with wells that now can run horizontally for miles, as well as putting into service drilled-but-uncompleted wells that need to be fracked. Drillers added one rig last week, according to data released Friday. American crude production climbed by 1.1 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 20. Hedge funds boosted their Brent net-long positions -- the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a drop -- by 2.6 percent to 506,737 contracts in the week ended Oct. 24, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. That’s close to a record at the end of September and the previous high in February. Longs increased by 1.5 percent, while shorts slid 6.6 percent to the lowest since February. chr   http://iraqdailyjournal.com/story-z16134887

[Bigchclte]

Thanks for the post Adam!

[DinarThug]

Yo Snap - They're Building A Warehouse For Warehouses !  

 

     

 

 

And the oil rush to «morning»: the construction of huge warehouse warehouses

01/11/2017 12:00 am  Baghdad / Tareq al-Araji  The Ministry of Oil confirmed its efforts to reach a million barrels per day of crude oil by adopting refineries to reach self-sufficiency, stressing that Iraq currently repeats nearly 600 thousand barrels per day, which constitutes a deficit of 35 percent for gasoline and kazuel.  The senior agent of the ministry, Fayad Hassan Nima, noted in a special meeting with "Sabah", to the continuation of the ministry to install refining units in most refineries of the country, in addition to direct implementation of some of them through the ministry's staffs and the transfer of some of them on investment, revealing the completion of the Ministry of advanced stages of building large reservoir reservoirs Throughout the country.  The following is the text of the interview:     * What are the most prominent projects of the Ministry to increase the volume of refining capacities in refineries to provide derivatives?  The main refineries currently operating Basra refinery, which has a production capacity of 210 thousand barrels per day As for the expansion there are two units under construction, the first to improve gasoline capacity of 10 thousand barrels per day to be completed next year, and another project to add 70 thousand barrels per day will enter the work in the second half And other projects focused on the addition of gasoline refineries of both types (Al-Azmara) and Al-Furmer, and the addition of kerosene desulfurization units as well as the conversion unit of black oil to oil derivatives. The Japanese side expressed its readiness to finance these additions.  The refinery also produces improved types of oil derivatives within the global standards. The ministry coordinated with international companies to achieve this. There is a response from a number of companies to enter the competition to develop Basra refinery to produce 300,000 barrels per day and within international standards.  * Are there other refineries to be developed in the southern governorates?  Yes, the ministry started to develop Nasiriyah refinery with a capacity of 30 thousand barrels per day, and refinery Maysan 30 thousand barrels per day and work maximum cards, and there are expansions to add a unit produces ten thousand barrels each to meet the need of the province of derivatives, and there is no crisis in the south or in any other region , And the ministry is working on developing the Diwaniyah and Samawah refineries to meet the needs of oil derivatives in the provinces and providing fuel for power stations and filling the need for cement plants, bricks and asphalt there and meet the fuel, especially black oil for power plants and construction plants, all of which are undergoing development and expansion.  [Asharq Al-Awsat] What about the Doura refinery, which is being built in 1955, and is there a plan to develop it?  Doura refinery with a refining capacity of 140 thousand barrels per day and located in the center of the capital, there is a program to make it within the refineries environment, and we are working to add units to improve specifications and reduce thermal emissions and non-pollution of water or air or land in this region, and there are two units to improve gasoline, With a turnover rate of 10 thousand barrels, and the second has reached the completion rate to 50 percent of its materials and a card of 10 thousand barrels allocated to improve gasoline.  The ministry is working on developing the Doura refinery in line with the requirements of the environment in the capital. There is no plan to transfer it, but there is a plan to implement a project that conforms to the international standards and is environment-friendly as in the civilized countries. The amounts of the project will be in a gradual manner and we started with the industrial water treatment and cooling units. To process the flame gases in the advertising phase and will be completed within five years from now. [Asharq Al-Awsat] Is there a plan to rehabilitate the refineries of the North and the refineries located in the western region after they were vandalized by "Da'ash" terrorists?  After the exposure of the refineries of the north of the destruction and destruction, including Baiji refinery, has developed a plan for reconstruction and engineering effort, and the ministry's staff managed to restart the refinery modern refining capacity of 10,000 barrels of its capacity of 16 thousand, in addition to the Chinese refinery in Salahaddin province, which is now under Maintenance is expected to enter the work at the end of next month card 20 thousand barrels per day, as well as the North Refinery Company to add two units refinery Kirkuk and works by 40 thousand barrels per day after the capacity was 30 thousand, and it is hoped that production will rise next month to 50 thousand barrels per day .  * The ministry announced earlier on the transfer of a number of refineries on investment, where the project arrived?  Maysan and Nasiriyah refineries and Kirkuk, according to the policy of the ministry and the government to invest, but the security situation in Iraq and due to the fluctuation of oil prices and a sharp decline prevented investors from providing them. As for the Nasiriyah refinery project, there are negotiations with Chinese and French companies to achieve 150 thousand barrels per day Companies and these companies remain invested for 20 years in the event of its operation and the profits are shared appropriately and it is an important project, as for the refinery Maysan, which is scheduled to be design capacity of 150 thousand barrels per day, was referred to an investment company, but There is a slowdown before it and if it does not succeed, the license will be withdrawn from them, and there is Kirkuk refinery with a capacity of 150 thousand barrels per day, which was submitted by three companies and we hope that the contract will be signed during the next two months to start construction.  * The amount of crude oil that is supposed to be repeated in the local refineries to exceed the subject of import  Derivatives ?.  The rate of quantities of refined crude oil refineries established between 550 to 575 thousand barrels per day and the need of Iraq up to one million barrels per day for all provinces, including the North and the shortfall is compensated through the preparation of the program rationalization and control of consumption, and this has been done by the Ministry and successfully since 2010 and so far , And there is no problem or shortage of derivatives nationwide, in addition to it compensates for the shortfall through imports of the two (kerosene) and gasoline, which have a deficit of 35%, which is imported from international companies.    * Iraq and through increasing oil production, need to develop and establish reservoirs of crude oil and derivatives in all governorates, is there a plan in this regard ?.  There are ports dedicated to the export of oil that will open in the south and the addition of new units through the reconstruction of old ports. We have a warehouse dedicated to oil derivatives with different capacities in Najaf. And the holy city of Karbala in the phase of the receipt, and the depository of Samawah and Maysan are the other two stages of construction, in addition to the warehouse of the Greater Basra, the warehouse Aziziyah will be announced for investment, and the rest of the provinces covered, Anbar, Ninewa and Salahuddin in the reconstruction phase and it is hoped that it will enter the work next year.  link

[DinarThug]

http://aynaliraqnews.com/index.....id22=85572

Oil prices rise to a two-year high

 31st October, 2017 11:22pm

Oil prices closed higher, Tuesday, ending the month on gains of more than 5 percent, but analysts said a positive atmosphere helped the global benchmark Brent crude to record the highest level in more than two years may encourage US producers to export more oil, according to "Reuters."

Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $ 61.37 a barrel near their July lows of earlier this week, up about 37 percent from the year's low in June.

US benchmark WTI futures closed up 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $ 54.38 a barrel near a two-year high.

Traders and brokers said they were adjusting their positions after oil prices jumped about 5 percent in October.

Brent ended the month up 6.7 percent, while US crude rose 5.2 percent. The price gap between US crude and Brent has widened to around $ 7, making it attractive to exporters.

US crude exports jumped nearly 2 million barrels per day and output has risen nearly 13 percent since mid-2016 to 9.5 million bpd.

Markets are waiting for the latest weekly oil inventories in the United States, which will be released from the US Petroleum Institute later on Tuesday and from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Six analysts polled by Reuters expected inventories to fall 2.6 million barrels in the week ending October 27. 

[yota691]

Oil rose to $ 61.32 a barrel as OPEC's commitment to supply cuts improved

 

 From 2017-11-01 at 14:47 (Baghdad time)

Follow up of Mawazine News

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, close to recent highs as data showed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has greatly strengthened its commitment to cut production commitments at a time when Russia seems committed to the agreement.

Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.6 percent, from the previous $ 61.32 a barrel by 0759 GMT, approaching the two-year high of $ 61.41 a barrel on Tuesday.

Brent crude is up about 40 percent since it hit its lowest level this year in June.

US WTI rose more than half a dollar, or 1 percent, to $ 54.95 a barrel to hit a new high. Crude has risen about 30 percent since hitting its lowest level this year in June.

While the level of compliance with the supply reduction agreement was low in the first half of the year, supplies have since fallen sharply.

OPEC output in October fell 80,000 barrels per day to 32.78 million bpd, bringing the level of commitment to production cuts to 92 percent, up from 86 percent in September.

Russia is also expected to cut production by 300,000 bpd below the October 2016 levels of 11.247 million barrels per day.

[Wiljor]

OPEC OUTPUT DROPS BY 80,000 BPD ON IRAQ OUTPUT INSTABILITY

Iraq, November 1, 2017  A new Reuters survey found that OPEC’s output dropped in October due to production disruptions in Iraq as well as increased compliance to established quotas by the rest of the bloc’s countries. Total production fell by 80,000 barrels per day this month as compliance rose to 92 percent – up four points from September. Saudi Arabia continued its trend to pump below target, and Venezuelan output fell further as the nation’s economy spirals into a depression. Brent barrels rose to over $60 a barrel, which is the price that Saudi Aramco executives were aiming to reach before the state-run company’s initial public offering next year. Following the Kurdistan region’s referendum which Iraq did not recognize, Iraq’s government forces completed in mid-October an operation to seize control of all oil fields that Iraqi state-held North Oil Company operates in the oil-rich Kirkuk region from Kurdish forces. Crude oil from northern Iraq, including from the Kurdistan region, stopped flowing from the oil pipeline between Kirkuk and the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan early on Monday local time, Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing a port agent. Next month, the cartel is set to meet at Vienna in order to discuss the future of 1.2 million barrels per day of production cuts. Moscow agreed to cut 300,000 bpd in production in concert with OPEC’s agreement. “With both the Saudi and Russian leadership in favor of prolonging supply curbs, next month’s OPEC meeting is shaping up to be a non-event,” Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM told Reuters. “That is unless the oil cartel announces deeper output cuts or provisions for exempted members Libya and Nigeria.” Libyan output increased by 70,000 barrels this month due to new stable output from the Sharara field – the country’s largest. oilprice   http://iraqdailyjournal.com/story-z16140939

[Adam Montana]

UPDATE 5-Oil flat, erases gains as U.S. crude draw shy of API report

Scott DiSavino

Published 8 Mins AgoReuters

* U.S. crude stocks fall 2.4 million barrels -EIA

* OPEC compliance to its pledged cuts at 92 pct in Oct

* Russia also seen keeping to the deal (Adds EIA weekly petroleum status report, latest prices, fresh quotes)

 

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady in see-saw trade on Wednesday, hitting their highest since mid-2015 and then retreating after U.S. government data showed that the latest weekly draw in domestic crude stocks was not as big as an industry trade group had reported.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude stocks decreased by 2.4 million barrels during the week of Oct. 27. That exceeded the 1.8 million barrel draw forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll but fell well short of the 5.1 million barrel decline reported late on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

"Oil prices fell since the release of the (EIA) report," said Carsten Fritsch, oil analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, Germany, noting that the crude draw was "significantly less than the API numbers."

Brent futures were down 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $60.78 a barrel by 11:33 a.m. EDT (1533 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3 cents, or 0.1 percent at $54.35.

Before EIA reported the inventory data, Brent was trading at its highest since July 2015 on data showing OPEC had significantly improved compliance with its pledged supply cuts and Russia was widely expected to keep to the deal.

Brent's session high was $61.70, its highest since July 2015, and WTI rose as high as $55.22, putting it within a couple cents of its highest since July 2015.

Both Brent and U.S. crude notched strong monthly gains in October.

"The bulls have it and momentum is strong," Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.

"We know how oil can easily run ahead of what is fundamentally justified and we've seen that in both directions in the last couple of years," he said. "We really need to see demand growth pick up even more strongly than what is currently expected for the bullish outlook for to be maintained."

This year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers have cut 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil production to boost prices.

OPEC's October output fell by 80,000 bpd to 32.78 million bpd. Adherence to its pledged supply curbs rose to 92 percent from September's 86 percent.

Analysts and traders expect Russia to stick to its agreement to curb oil output by 300,000 bpd from 11.247 million bpd reached in October 2016.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering extending the agreement. But analysts warned that the glut could return when the agreement ends, especially if U.S. output continues to rise in the meantime.

"We could rapidly ... go from a predicted deficit of around 260,000 barrels to a surplus of close to 1.5 million barrels. Prices would undoubtedly collapse," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/reuters-america-update-5-oil-flat-erases-gains-as-u-s-crude-draw-shy-of-api-report.html

[tigergorzow]

Oil minister opens new oil terminal in Karbala

November 01 2017 08:52 PM

Oil minister opens new oil terminal in Karbala

 

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar Ali al-Allaibi on Wednesday opened a new oil terminal in Karbala with a storage capacity of 64 million liters.

The oil terminal includes 13 giant reservoirs and a huge water tank, a statement read.

The new project will provide petrol derivatives for Karbala amid the influx of millions who will visit the city on the occasion of Arbaeen Pilgrimage, the minister said.

He pointed out that the project was implemented by the Oil Projects Company (SCOP), noting that it will provide oil derivatives for central and southern Iraqi provinces.

 

http://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/story/19074/Oil-minister-opens-new-oil-terminal-in-Karbala

[yota691]

Oil markets await extension of production reduction agreement

02/11/2017 12:00 am  Expert for the morning: expectations for stability of prices between 58 - 65 dollars   Baghdad / Sabah / Farah Al-Khafaf  An oil expert predicted the stability of world oil markets by the end of the year as Brent crude prices settled above $ 60. "The (OPEC) meeting in Vienna next month will put the points on the letters and will determine the future of the markets next year, with the weighting of the extension of the production reduction agreement for six months, which ends next March," Hassan Marzouk told Sabah. The recovery of the markets saw Marzouk said " the commitment of most of the OECD countries and other countries signatories to the agreement, began to bear fruit in real with the recovery of the markets , " expected prices to stabilize between 58 to $ 65 during the next term. " The (OPEC), Russia and nine other countries (including Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, have agreed to cut 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to get rid of oil bottlenecks, and the  deal is in place until March 2018. But both Saudi Arabia and Russia, which lead the effort, have shown their support for extending the deal. On Wednesday, oil prices settled above the $ 61 a barrel mark as traders sold for profit after days of gains, despite the prospect of an increase in US exports. Kirkuk oilfields , traders said yesterday: " The Brent was also influenced by step to increase Iraq 's oil exports from southern ports 220 thousand barrels per day to 3.45 million barrels per day to compensate for disruptions in the northern Kirkuk oilfields supply". Earlier this week, Brent crude futures were down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, from the previous $ 60.76 a barrel, but were not far from their highest level since July 2015 earlier this week, up about 37 percent from the lowest levels. 2017 recorded last June.  US crude fell 11 cents from the previous close to $ 54.04 a barrel, but remained near its highest level since February, up about 28 percent from the June 2017 low.  Traders said: "There is a sale of profit after the rise of crude prices about 5 percent in October." Support for prices But confidence still dominates the market despite minor declines, thanks to efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to block about 1.8 million barrels per day of oil production in an effort to balance markets and support prices. "The world oil markets are improving and stabilizing," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Faleh said. Al-Faleh praised the cooperation shown by the Iraqi government with his country in the oil field, which ultimately led to "the stability we are currently witnessing in world markets." Iraq and Saudi Arabia agreed to coordinate their oil exports to control supply from the world market and stabilize prices.

[nannab]

A very bright future for Iraq and it won't be long now for ours. 

Thanks Yota and good morning DV. 

[gregp]

Good Morning!

[yota691]

Iraq 's supports keeping restrictions on oil supplies and sets the "acceptable price"

 

 Twilight News    

 

 2 hours ago

 

 

The Iraqi Oil Ministry on Thursday expressed its support for keeping restrictions on oil supplies in world markets.

Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said his country supports keeping restrictions on global oil supplies to support prices, adding that $ 60 a barrel would be an acceptable price target for his country.

Iraq is the second largest producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after Saudi Arabia.

OPEC is expected to extend restrictions on oil production when it meets in the Austrian capital Vienna at the end of this month.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry announced today that the average price of selling Iraqi crude reached 52.60 dollars a barrel last October.

 

Keywords: 

[Wiljor]

Iraq, November 4, 2017 

Crude oil prices continued to rise on Thursday due to disruptions in production from Kirkuk and ongoing disputes between Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Iraq has also announced it intends to take over all crude oil sales.

 

Brent Crude increased to $60.41 per barrel compared to $57.87 ten days prior and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased to $54.38 from $52.04 per barrel during the same time frame as reported by Bloomberg.

 

Total production for the month of October fell by 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) as reported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which includes member and non-OPEC member countries.

 

Oil exports from Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port were halted by Baghdad on Monday.

 

Ahmed Askari, head of the Oil and Gas Committee in Kirkuk Provincial Council told Rudaw on Wednesday that after the October 16 events in which the Iraqi government took control of Kirkuk, oil exports to the Ceyhan port in Turkey reduced to 70,000 bpd, but “now even that sum has been stopped.”

 

The decision to halt the exports was made by the Iraqi Oil Ministry, Askari added.

 

Conflicts between the Kurdish and Iraqi forces in the disputed areas came after months of sour relations between the two governments as the KRG prepared for and held a referendum on independence, including the disputed areas in the vote which Baghdad opposed.

 

Iraqi forces have since taken control of the majority of disputed areas, including several oil wells claimed by both Erbil and Baghdad that had largely been brought under Peshmerga control since the war against ISIS began in 2014.

 

It was also announced by Alaa al-Yasiri, company director of SOMO, Iraq’s state-oil marketer that they want the Kurdistan Region to stop independent crude oil exports altogether.

 

Yasiri told reporters in Baghdad on Thursday that Iraq intends to allow SOMO to sell Kurdish crude oil that arrives at the Turkish port of Ceyhan to international markets and hand over all sales operations to Iraqi authorities.

 

An average of 530,000 bpd arrives at Ceyhan port via pipeline daily but slowed mid-October due to conflicts. Half of this arrives from the Kurdistan Region while the remaining came from disputed Kirkuk.

 

Director General of North Oil Company which operates Kirkuk, Farid al-Jadir said that the pipeline carried 419,000 bpd in October, down from 600,000 bpd in September.

 

SOMO’s Yasiri said that the NOC is due to resume exports from Kirkuk through the Kurdish pipeline later this month, after Baghdad and Erbil agree to the terms of use. Roughly 15,000 bpd will also be exported by tanker trucks via land route to a refinery in Kermanshah, Iran, he added.

 

Iraq is the second largest oil producer within OPEC member states after Saudi Arabia.

rudaw

http://iraqdailyjournal.com/story-z16153468

 

[blueskyline]

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx....................$62.07

 

 

[davis411]

Great 

where is my rv

 

i lost him

plz bring me my rv

[nannab]

8 minutes ago, davis411 said:

Great 

where is my rv

 

i lost him

plz bring me my rv

 

Coming right up Sir on a silver platter or paper plate? 

[SnowGlobe7]

either way...will taste the same!!!!!

[yota691]

Oil to the highest price since July 2015

- 6 Minutes Ago

 

 

Oil prices hit their highest levels since July 2015. Brent crude was up yesterday at $ 62. Prices continue to rise for the fifth month in a row, up 35 per cent from the lowest level in mid-June of 2017. The price of the West Texas mix reached its highest level this year and reached $ 56 a barrel yesterday, Per cent over the same period.
The two blends, especially Brent, have benefited from several indicators of recovery in recent weeks, such as declining production, improved global demand, continued decline in stocks, one of the most important targets of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and finally, uneven rock oil production and geopolitical risk escalation. A report by the Research and Studies Department of the National Bank of Kuwait said: "The agreement to reduce production between OPEC countries and some countries outside Russia led by Russia, has contributed to reducing the abundance of production and stock in the market. The commitment exceeded 100 per cent during most of the 10-month period of the Convention. Some producer countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have played an important role in influencing public opinion, linking the marked decline in commercial stocks to their efforts. "
Oil and product inventories have already fallen since the highest level recorded in July 2016. But at a slow pace. Where inventories fell to 3.051 billion barrels in August, or 2.9 percent (90 million barrels) from the highest level, which amounted to 3.104 billion barrels a month ago. The August inventory level is above the five-year average of 2.854 billion barrels, 170 million barrels, but this reflects a higher target level (which is a moving average).
OPEC Secretary General Mohamed Barkando said that market equilibrium is nearing completion, and that OPEC countries and beyond deserve to be praised for achieving their goal through an unprecedented commitment. OPEC announced at a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee that the commitment to the reduction has reached a historic rate of 120 per cent in September. The Organization's production in September was 32.75 million barrels per day, an increase of 90 thousand barrels per day from the data for August, according to secondary sources of the Organization.

Rest assured markets

The agreement was signed on November 30 in Vienna to discuss developments and discuss the possibility of extending the reduction period, as well as the development of an appropriate strategy to end it. And avoid the return of production heavily after the suspension of the agreement, but it is not clear whether it will be announced soon in a formal manner. OPEC may decide to wait until the agreement ends in March to announce it. On the other hand, the production of shale oil will benefit from the continued reduction due to the prolonged uncertainty.
"In any event, the four-month recovery clearly reflects that markets have begun to adapt. In the futures market, the reverse curve of Brent futures - which has a higher delivery rate than OPEC's futures prices - was in support of available prices and helped to reduce the storage of crude oil. As oil prices fall, the role of hedge funds exploited by oil producers is less effective to maintain returns during the period of lower oil prices. OPEC should not back down from its commitment, as the slightest change in commitment could lead to an oversupply in the market. Mudaraba hedge funds have rebounded sharply with the doubling of buying and selling positions. Brent's buying positions have accumulated at a minimum of $ 34 billion. This is historically a level, and may be reduced with any inappropriate move by OPEC. "

Demand growth

The growth in global demand was unexpectedly strong in 2017. At the end of the year, the production level may exceed significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast demand growth in 2017 at about 1.6 million barrels per day (1.6 per cent), meaning that there is a difference between the expected global production growth of 1.3 million barrels, if the production at current levels. By the end of the year, inventories could drop by 130 million barrels, or 0.4 million bpd. 
The strength of demand was the result of a better global economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its World Economic Report. In terms of oil, raising China's growth forecast has helped boost global GDP growth, with China accounting for 12 percent of global demand for oil, with LPG, gasoline and diesel making the list of the most refined products affecting demand.

Outlook

The report predicts that the situation will be different in 2018. Production is likely to exceed demand growth, if the IEA estimates are correct. As the agency expects demand growth to reach 1.4 million barrels per day and the growth of non-OPEC production to 1.5 million barrels per day. It is expected that America will be the largest contributor to the production of non-OPEC countries by 1.1 million barrels per day. This follows the 2017 increase of 0.47 million bpd. America's production seems to have begun to recover to pre-Hurricane levels of around 9.5 million bpd. 
Oil production is likely to decline in early 2018 as drilling rigs have declined since June. As they have decreased in the past ten weeks. There is usually a delay of six months until the production is adapted to the change in the rigs data.
If the growth of shale oil production in 2018, as expected by the International Energy Agency, it is possible that the stock will accumulate instead of falling back, and this may again delay the market equilibrium that OPEC has long targeted, which explains the group's desire to extend production cuts until the end Next year.

Love revives prices

Prices have rebounded in October and the beginning of November, as geopolitical risks return after months of relative calm. As the markets became concerned about the flow of oil from Baghdad as a compromise against the Kurdistan Regional Government, after the latter initiated the process of referendum on the independence of the Kurdistan region, which angered Iran and Turkey, which threatened to close the main pipeline for the transfer of Kurdish oil through Turkey to global markets (And Iraqi federal oil also from Kirkuk oil fields). Reports indicate that exports of oil pipelines from Iraq's northern fields have declined by 60 percent over the past month, from an average of 600,000 bpd to 240,000 bpd.
Market fears have also increased after US President Donald Trump refused to ratify the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the "Joint Comprehensive Action Plan", and gave Congress the task of deciding whether to reject the deal or re-impose economic sanctions on Tehran. Congress has about two months to make a decision, and geopolitical and production-level developments are an integral part of the movement of oil markets.

Middle east