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Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages


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Here is a post showing the 2017 Supplemental Budget based the price of crude oil at $44.40 that is up from $42 per barrel

 

 

The article also states this is based on 3.75 million barrels per day.

 

Say crude oil averages $54.40 for an incremental $10 per barrel.  That is 37.5 million USD per day and 13.7 billion USD per year or nominally 16.2 trillion IQD per year.

 

Iraq appears to be producing about 4.4 million barrels per day or 0.65 million barrels per day more than the budget. 0.65 million barrels per day is 0.65 million x $54.4 = 35.4 million dollars per day or 12.9 billion USD per year or nominally 15.3 trillion IQD per year.

 

If Iraq increases their production to 5 million barrels per day by the end of 2017 as they said they have intended to do then that is another 0.6 million barrels a day x $54.4 = 32.6 million dollars per day or 11.9 billion USD per year or nominally 14.1 trillion IQD per year.

 

So, 13.7 + 12.9 + 11.9 = 38.5 billion USD per year or nominally 45.6 trillion IQD per year.

 

This will really sow a hole in the budget for the remaining 2017 and future years!

 

I remain optimistic.

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

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39 minutes ago, Synopsis said:

Here is a post showing the 2017 Supplemental Budget based the price of crude oil at $44.40 that is up from $42 per barrel

 

 

The article also states this is based on 3.75 million barrels per day.

 

Say crude oil averages $54.40 for an incremental $10 per barrel.  That is 37.5 million USD per day and 13.7 billion USD per year or nominally 16.2 trillion IQD per year.

 

Iraq appears to be producing about 4.4 million barrels per day or 0.65 million barrels per day more than the budget. 0.65 million barrels per day is 0.65 million x $54.4 = 35.4 million dollars per day or 12.9 billion USD per year or nominally 15.3 trillion IQD per year.

 

If Iraq increases their production to 5 million barrels per day by the end of 2017 as they said they have intended to do then that is another 0.6 million barrels a day x $54.4 = 32.6 million dollars per day or 11.9 billion USD per year or nominally 14.1 trillion IQD per year.

 

So, 13.7 + 12.9 + 11.9 = 38.5 billion USD per year or nominally 45.6 trillion IQD per year.

 

This will really sow a hole in the budget for the remaining 2017 and future years!

 

I remain optimistic.

 

Go Moola Nova!

:pirateship:

 

That math works for me brother :twothumbs:

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Oil Back in Bull Market as Kurdish Vote Amplifies Supply Risk

By 
Ben Sharples
September 26, 2017, 1:53 AM GMT+2 September 26, 2017, 9:30 AM GMT+2
  • Turkey says can halt Kurdish exports amid independence vote
  • Supply gap could emerge in market as early as 2018: Citigroup

U.S. crude was back in a bull market Tuesday as Turkey threatened to shut down Kurdish oil exports in response to the region’s independence vote, while Trafigura Group and Citigroup Inc. added to warnings of a looming supply squeeze.

 

Turkey can “close the valves” on oil shipments from Kurdistan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. Ankara opposes an independent Kurdish state and has enormous economic leverage because the export pipeline runs through Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. There’s a risk of a market squeeze emerging as early as 2018 because of weaker investment in exploration and development, Citigroup’s head of commodities research said.

 
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Oil has gained more than 10 percent this month on forecasts for rising crude demandand as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintain production cuts to drain a global glut. The effect of OPEC’s curbs could be amplified if the vote in the landlocked Iraqi enclave of Kurdistan provokes a political crisis, threatening more than 500,000 barrels a day of shipments to global markets. 

 

“That quantity of crude coming out of the supply chain would be fairly significant,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “The price reaction might indicate that the supply situation is a little closer to balance. These types of geopolitical events tend to drag out, it could certainly help to keep prices higher for longer.”

 

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery was at $52.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 20 cents at 8:29 a.m. in London. Prices surged 3.1 percent to $52.22 on Monday, more than 20 percent above their most recent low -- a definition of a bull market. Total volume traded was 55 percent above the 100-day average.

See also: Oil Traders Forget OPEC for New Mantra: It’s The Economy, Stupid

Brent for November settlement was 29 cents lower at $58.73 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after rising as much as 0.8 percent earlier. Prices added $2.16 to $59.02 on Monday, the highest close since July 2015. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $6.72 to WTI.

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Oil pumped at fields controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government and the central Iraqi government’s North Oil Co. was flowing normally through the export pipeline on Monday, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential.

The crude market could face a shortage by 2019, Trafigura’s Co-Head of Group Market Risk Ben Luckock said at the at S&P Global Platts APPEC conference on Tuesday. Nine million barrels a day of oil production could be lost to well declines by 2019, according to the trader.

Oil-market news:

  • OPEC and its allies need to prolong cuts to reduce inventories to historically normal levels, according to Janet Kong, Eastern Hemisphere chief executive officer of integrated supply and trading at BP.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/oil-holds-gains-near-5-month-high-as-kurdish-exports-threatened

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Economy News _ Baghdad

Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent and Brent hit its highest level in more than two years after key producers said the global market was on track to return to equilibrium, while Turkey threatened to stop oil flows from the Kurdistan region of Iraq towards its ports.

Brent crude futures closed at $ 2.16, or 3.8 percent, at $ 59.02 a barrel, the highest level since July 2015. 

The US benchmark WTI futures contract rose 1.56 dollars, or 3 percent, to close at 52.22. Dollars, the highest since April.

"The market rally today was due to the belief that production cuts are starting to take effect and that the balance is now returning to markets," said Jean McGillian, market research director at Tradishment Energy in New York.

The difference between Brent crude and US crude prices widened to $ 6.61, the largest since August 2015.

Turkey has said it could close a pipeline transporting oil from northern Iraq to the world market, putting more pressure on Iraqi Kurdistan over the referendum on independence held in the region on Monday.

The Iraqi government does not recognize the referendum and called on foreign countries to stop importing Kurdish crude.

"If this call to the boycott is successful, 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil will not reach the markets," Commerzbank said in a note.

 

Views 658   Date Added 09/26/2017

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Forecasts of an increase in oil exports by 7.5 million barrels

   
 

 
 


26/9/2017 12:00 am 

(Reuters) -  
Oil exports from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise by 7.5 million bpd between 2016 and 2040 to boost growth in emerging economies led by India and China, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Monday  . 
"Exports will reach 22 million bpd from 14.5 million barrels per day during that period," OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo said. 
After the success of the agreement to reduce the crude oil of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from within the Organization with the outside countries to reduce global stocks and the commitment of many countries to reduce Iraq, Iran expressed its opinion on the agreement as "acceptable" but needs some changes and oblige Nigeria and Libya to reduce their output under the agreement, From the statements of the  two sources 

While Libya's production is around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 1 million barrels a day in the past months, a Libyan source said. On the other hand, the Nigerian oil minister said his country is pumping less supplies than the agreed production ceiling 
 . 
Despite the success of the commitment of countries to the agreement (OPEC) to reduce oil production, the parties found the need to extend the period set for him (the agreement), said Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq, who chaired the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Control Committee last Friday: "The constraints of production help reduce stocks global crude to the five - year average, a level target 
 (OPEC).  on 
the other hand, Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said: "it is not expected to take before January a decision on the extension of reduced production after the end of March, although other ministers as likely to An optimal decision to take before the end of  this year 
. " 
OPEC member states have expressed their commitment to the actual reduction and access to high and effective levels, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which recently announced a level of 100 percent reduction in production  

Oil prices were under pressure from the strength of the dollar, but crude kept most of its gains from previous sessions after top producers said at a meeting in Vienna: The market is on track to restore balance. 
Brent crude for November delivery fell 4 cents to $ 56.82 a barrel, nearing its highest level since March, and US crude for delivery in November dipped to $ 50.56 a barrel, but still well short of a four-month high, While the basket of (OPEC) containing 14 types of crude, $ 54.84 a barrel. 
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and a number of oil producers from outside have agreed to cut supplies by 1.8 million bpd since the beginning of 2017, helping oil prices rise by about 15 percent in the last three months. 
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Oil analyst Hamza Al - Jawahiri
  

Economy News Baghdad:

Said the oil analyst, Hamza al-Jawahiri, that the crisis of the referendum in the Kurdistan region will withdraw 900 thousand barrels per day from the global market, which will rise prices of crude oil.

He added to "Economy News", that "the current crisis in Kurdistan will raise oil prices as a result of the threat of Turkey to close the pipeline oil source of Kurdish oil," noting that "the amount of oil produced in the Kurdistan region of 900 thousand barrels and withdrawal from the market will affect global production and therefore on prices "He said.

Al-Jawahiri believes that the crisis in the Kurdistan region will continue for a long time and is accompanied by the drop in the amount of oil floating in the global oil market to less than 50 million barrels per day because of the cut production agreement implemented by the OPEC countries, expected to continue high oil prices.

Oil prices were hovering near a 26-month high on Tuesday, backed by Turkey's threat to halt crude flows from Iraq's Kurdistan region and signals that the market will regain its balance at a faster pace.

 

Views 152   Date Added 27/09/2017

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Kurdish Vote Won't Spark A Sustained Oil Price Rally

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture
Sep 28, 2017 5:00 AM
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Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

Turkey and Iraq have stepped up the pressure on Kurdistan after the semi-autonomous region of Iraq voted for independence. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to block Kurdish oil exports through Turkish territory, while Baghdad called for an international boycott of Kurdish oil sales.

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The Kurdish people appeared to have voted overwhelmingly for independence on Monday, pending final results. But the Kurdish Regional Government has said that the vote, which won’t be recognized internationally, will be a starting point for negotiations with Baghdad, and not the culmination of real independence.

Turkey’s President called the referendum “illegal, null, and void,” and threatened to shut down exports through the pipeline that runs from Kurdistan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

 
 

“Let’s see where they are going to drain off the petrol — we control the valve,” he said. “Once you turn off the valve, it will be over.”

The referendum was also opposed by Iran, as well as the United States, which argued that it would destabilize the region.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Sunday that all foreign countries should not purchase oil from Kurdistan, arguing that the sales are illegal if not conducted under the auspices of the Iraqi central government.

 
 

Iraq “asks the neighboring countries and the countries of the world to deal exclusively with the federal government of Iraq in regards to entry posts and oil,” a statement from the Prime Minister’s office said.

Kurdistan produces just over 600,000 bpd, or about 15 percent of Iraq’s total output. Most contentiously are the oil fields around disputed areas in Kirkuk, which the Kurds took control of in 2014 when ISIS burst onto the scene and rapidly seized swathes of territory from the Iraqi government.

 
 

“The Iraqi government is not going to stand still and watch Kirkuk’s integration into Kurdistan, and the mobilization that we’re seeing is an Iraqi effort to reassert control over the contested territory,” Ayham Kamel, director of the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, said in a Bloomberg interview. Ethnic clashes “might become a pretext for much wider mobilization,” he added.

Kurdistan is largely at the mercy of its much more powerful neighbors. The bulk of the region’s finances come from oil exports, much of which go through a pipeline across Turkey to the Mediterranean. If Turkey takes draconian action to shut down Kurdish oil exports, it would cripple the Kurdish economy.

“If this boycott call proves successful, a good 500,000 fewer barrels of crude oil per day would reach the market,” Commerzbank saidin a note.

The threat of the boycott, as well as the possible shuttering of oil flows through Turkey, led to a significant increase in crude prices, which touched two-year highs on Monday. Brent rose above $58 per barrel, the highest price in more than two years, although prices fell back slightly on Tuesday.

A more serious scenario would be some sort of military clash between Kurdistan and its neighbors. Turkey conducted military exercises along its border with Kurdistan, and Turkish President Erdogan ominously warned that “we may arrive one night, suddenly.”

Kurdish President Massoud Barzani called for calm and diplomatic negotiations, but on Tuesday the Iraqi government ruled out talks.“Barzani is playing a dangerous game of poker,” Anthony Skinner, a director with U.K.-based forecasting company Verisk Maplecroft, told Bloomberg by email. “He is counting on Turkey, Iran and the U.S. not being able to sustain a united stance on pressuring the KRG.”

The gamble is risky, but if the Kurds can stave off retaliation, there is an upside. Because any clash would be a lop-sided affair, given the lack of international support for formal Kurdish independence, military hostilities are unlikely. Turkey could shut down the pipeline that carries Kurdish oil, but Ankara also benefits from tariffs it receives for allowing those shipments to proceed. Baghdad has much less influence, so if Turkey declines to follow through on its threats, the independence vote could give the Kurdish government some leverage with Baghdad in negotiations over revenue sharing, a longstanding grievance that has not been addressed. The Iraqi government has tried for years to halt Kurdish oil exports, but to no avail.

The Kurdish government also recently resolved some outstanding issues with energy companies operating within its borders, restructuring debts and sending payments to some drillers. Rosneft just announced plans to invest $1 billion in Kurdistan to build a natural gas pipeline, a move that comes on the heels of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of loans to the Kurdish government earlier this year, to be paid back by future oil sales. The recent deals bolster Kurdistan’s energy outlook.

In short, the belligerent rhetoric surrounding the independence vote between Kurdistan and its neighbors could have already peaked. That might mean that the case for higher crude oil prices will need to come from elsewhere; oil bulls cannot base their bets on supply disruptions from Kurdistan.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-27/kurdish-vote-wont-spark-sustained-oil-price-rally

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53 minutes ago, Butifldrm said:

Rosneft just announced plans to invest $1 billion in Kurdistan to build a natural gas pipeline, a move that comes on the heels of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of loans to the Kurdish government earlier this year, to be paid back by future oil sales. The recent deals bolster Kurdistan’s energy outlook.

 

I wonder if that could tie into the HCL... the idea does not preclude or leave out a successful negotiation with Baghdad, from what I can tell. 

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11 minutes ago, Adam Montana said:

 

I wonder if that could tie into the HCL... the idea does not preclude or leave out a successful negotiation with Baghdad, from what I can tell. 

 

GM Adam.  I do believe a lot is at stake for both sides and this type of investment in Kurdistan, should bring the GOI closer to the negotiating table. Right now, there is a huge blustering as the Arabs always do, but money talks and there is a lot to loose on both sides if The Region and the GOI can't come to some sort of agreement.  HCL, should have been implemented years ago as we all know, and more than likely this Referendum would have never taken place.

 

Russia keeps eye on Kurdish oil contracts, referendum

 
 
Sergey Balmasov September 27, 2017
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ARTICLE SUMMARY
Russia has been boosting its presence in Middle East oil via the Kurdish Regional Government, but is also waiting to see what the potential impacts might be of the KRG’s independence referendum.
 
 REUTERS/Ako Rasheed
A member of the Kurdish peshmerga forces reacts as smoke rises after an attack at Bai Hassan oil station, Kirkuk, Iraq, July 31, 2016.
 

As major regional powers Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran mull the Iraqi Kurds’ independence referendum, Russia finds itself in the position of having become the major investor in Iraqi Kurdistan. Russian spending in the area’s oil and gas industry has reached at least $4 billion.

Stronger energy ties between Moscow and Erbil (the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government, or KRG) became apparent long before the Sept. 25 referendum. In February, Russia’s state-owned oil giant Rosneft announced it would finance in advance a two-year deal, beginning this year, to buy Kurdish crude for the company’s growing global refining system.

In early June, Rosneft signed a 20-year deal to buy Kurdistan oil and refine it in Germany. The parties also inked a contract to explore and develop five oil fields “with substantial geological potential” in Iraqi Kurdistan.

On Sept. 18, Rosneft made public a project to finance construction of Iraqi Kurdistan’s gas pipeline infrastructure, with expected export capacity by 2020 of 30 billion cubic meters (more than a trillion cubic feet) a year. Domestic clients would be served as well. “The investment in the project will be under a BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer) arrangement,” the statement read. Other details were not disclosed.

Moscow’s proactive stance can be accounted for by a range of factors. It seeks to deepen its foothold in the Iraqi Kurdistan gas industry to reinforce Russia’s status as a leading gas exporter.

Nowadays, Russia’s rivals rule the roost on the ground. For example, Genel Energy is developing the Miran and Bina Bawi fields (the reserves total 311.5 billion cubic meters). The Pearl Petroleum consortium, whose major partners are United Arab Emirates-based Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum, has invested about $1.2 billion in the Khormor and Chemchemal fields. It intends to increase production to 3.2 billion cubic meters per year.

But as opportunities abound in Iraqi Kurdistan, Moscow is seeking to leapfrog its rivals.

Moreover, Russia is keen to gain more political leverage in the Middle East, which will increase along with its economic weight. In turn, the Kurdish government faces a desperate shortage of funds as a result of poor management and the costs involved in fighting jihadis, taking in refugees and the rebuilding process.

Meanwhile, Moscow should not forget that despite the seeming appeal of the joint projects, including so-called tax holidays for foreign investment, foreign companies have traveled a bumpy road while operating similar projects.

Shortly before the September deal, Erbil settled the issue of restructuring and repaying debts to foreign companies. The unresolved issues have been a stumbling block to foreign projects in Iraqi Kurdistan in recent years, with Exxon Mobil Corp. pulling out of several exploration blocks it operated.

Negotiations with Pearl Petroleum were particularly tough, as the consortium sought damages to the tune of $26.5 billion, but finally agreed to compensation of $2.24 billion.

Earlier in August, Erbil reached similar agreements to restructure the debt with Turkish DNO and Genel Energy. A chunk of the sum is due to be paid in the near future. Moscow might be among those who could provide some funds.

All the dealmaking in the energy sector has predictably caused Iraq’s central government in Baghdad to resent and criticize “Russia’s bid to buy Baghdad’s oil.” The problem with this, as seen from Moscow, is that the cooperation between Baghdad and Erbil that envisaged government funding of the latter came to a halt after Kurdish peshmerga forces took control of Kirkuk province from Islamic State (IS) fighters. Baghdad lays claim to Kirkuk, which is rich in oil.

The Iraqi response to a more robust Russian presence remains to be seen. It may affect Russian companies in Iraq, as well as military and technical cooperation between the two countries. However, Russia should realize that its activities will predictably meet with a negative response from a range of countries. Among others, that list includes Qatar — which is not interested in tougher competition in a gas market that is already pressured by US shale gas exports to Europe.

Washington will also welcome such attempts half-heartedly. Although American energy companies have significantly scaled down their presence in Iraqi Kurdistan, the United States understands that stronger economic ties between Moscow and Erbil will inevitably lead to Russia’s proportionally reinforced presence on the ground. 

Besides, vying for the disputed territories of Ninevah (of which Mosul is the capital) and Kirkuk provinces, where the bulk of KRG oil is produced, is likely to subject Erbil to serious objections from Iran, Iraq and Turkey.

So Russia’s “breakthrough” has yet to materialize. The country is just working to ensure its purchase of Erbil’s oil, whereas other projects seem to have been postponed until it is clear what the referendum outcome will mean politically — for Iraq and the broader region. So far, one view in Russia is there’s little likelihood that Erbil will declare independence shortly after the vote. The KRG election commission reported Sept. 27 that the nonbinding referendum was overwhelmingly approved. Iraq's government opposed the referendum.

It’s not in Erbil’s best interest to agitate its neighbors by breaking away from Iraq. It appears KRG President Massoud Barzani might be more comfortable using the referendum’s outcome as leverage on potential partners as well as neighbors. For instance, he could offer Baghdad a deal under which it would have to withdraw demands for restored control over Diyala, Kirkuk and Ninevah provinces in exchange for Erbil's not declaring independence.

Likewise, the “yes” vote could be used to pressure Iran and Turkey, which backed groups opposed to the vote: Shiite Arabs and Turkmens, respectively.

As for Russia’s stance on the vote, on Sept. 27 the Foreign Ministry reiterated the country’s support for “coexistence within a single Iraqi state.”

“Moscow respects the national aspirations of the Kurds,” the statement read, adding, “We believe that all disputes that may exist … should be resolved through constructive and respectful dialogue.”

However, as Kurdish politician Hoshyar Zebari told Reuters just days before the vote, Russia’s position is to “wait and see” what impact the vote has.

As for Rosneft, company spokesman Mikhail Leontyev said, “The referendum won’t affect our work. We’re doing business in an autonomous region in Iraq that’s been recognized by law.”

Meanwhile, Rosneft’s contracts won’t necessarily translate into Russia’s overwhelming dominance in Iraqi Kurdistan, given that the next KRG parliamentary and presidential elections are just around the corner, scheduled for Nov. 1. Barzani has been lambasted by various opposition parties in parliament for the “nontransparent” Rosneft agreement and accused of corruption, and the opposition will give the president a run for his money

The Gorran movement, a “pro-European” Iraqi Kurdistan parliamentary party, has been particularly harsh toward Barzani. So although Russia is committed to further developing energy projects in the area, it is watchful of how the referendum echoes across the region so that Moscow doesn’t lose what it has been able to gain there.



Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/09/russia-iraq-kurdistan-referendum-oil-contracts-rosneft.html#ixzz4tyWJ4adn

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Economy News Baghdad:

Oil prices mixed on Friday, but Brent and US crude are heading for weekly gains again as investors bet that efforts to reduce the global supply gap are working and demand prospects are improving.

US crude fell 8 cents to $ 51.48 a barrel by 0641 GMT, after rising slightly earlier. Crude is still heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 9 percent this month.

Brent crude <LCOc1> was up 1 cent to $ 57.42 a barrel, heading for its fifth weekly gain and up about 10 percent in September.

The price gains, mostly in the past two and a half weeks, came as traders expected renewed demand from US refineries, which resume operations after hurricane closures.

Outside the United States, major oil producers in the world have also indicated they will stick to production cuts to limit supply.

Oil receives support from Turkey's threats to stop a pipeline from Iraq's Kurdistan region after a referendum in which the Kurds voted overwhelmingly for independence.

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said on Thursday Turkey had pledged only to deal with the Baghdad government with regard to crude.

 

 

Views 1   Date Added 09/29/2017

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  • yota691 changed the title to Oil is the strongest performer in the third quarter in 13 years

Oil is the strongest performer in the third quarter in 13 years

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Oil is the strongest performer in the third quarter in 13 years

 

01-10-2017 01:40 PM

The Euphrates -

 

In the oil markets, crude prices hit their strongest performance in the third quarter in 13 years, following a rally triggered by political instability in Iraq's Kurdistan region.

Brent crude was above $ 57, with quarterly gains of 20%, and oil prices were boosted by expectations of higher demand from US refineries, which resumed work after Hurricane Harvey.

On the other hand, Baker Hughes announced that US companies increased the number of six-wheeled oil excavators for the first time in seven weeks, but the number of rigs fell for the second straight month, the biggest monthly and quarterly decline since the second quarter of last year.

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Crude is in a technical harmonic pattern and we probably won't see $60 prices on WTI or Brent until next year..don't believe all the hype...watch seasonality kick in soon, not to mention a stronger dollar. Trump is supposedly also replacing the FED president with a new head next February and we are really going to start seeing some action in the forex realm due to speculation alone not to mention the already proposed reductions in the FEDS balance sheet..like I have been stating, if you owned all the dollars in the world and you wanted to convert your currency....would you want a stronger dollar? I will let you equate the sum. B)

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OPEC: High rates of oil exports in the Kurdistan region
 

 

 
 

Date Posted       01/10/2017 03:11 PM

 

%D8%A7%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%83-350x244.jpg

A source in the maritime transport of high rates of oil exports from the Kurdistan region during the month of September to forty thousand barrels per day.

The OPEC report confirmed the high rate of oil production in Iraq, including the Kurdistan region during the last month, pointing to the high price of a barrel of oil because of fears of stopping the export of oil in the pipeline Cihan.

An expert at Commerzbank said that the lack of a quick solution to resolve the tensions resulting from the holding of the referendum leads to the continuation of fears of cutting off oil of Kurdistan, indicating that these fears will overshadow the oil markets and will lead to a rise in prices for a long time.

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      Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has asked some of the Asian buyers of its Basrah crude grades if they could give up delivery of some already contracted cargoes for loading this month and next, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News on Tuesday.
      The request for buyers to forgo some cargoes for those months suggests that this time, Iraq may be earnest in its attempt to play ball in the OPEC+ production cuts, after being the biggest cheater in all previous pacts.
      Iraq’s (as well as Nigeria’s) non-compliance with the record OPEC+ cuts in May nearly wrecked last week’s meeting of the pact, ahead of which the two leaders of the group, Saudi Arabia and Russia, had insisted that there would be an extension by one month to the current level of cuts only if laggards in compliance ensured over-compliance going forward to compensate for flouting their quotas so far.
      OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to extend the record production cuts of 9.7 million bpd by one month through the end of July, contingent on all countries in the pact complying 100 percent with their quotas and compensating for lack of compliance by overachieving in the cuts in July, August, and September.
      Before the meeting, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and then-acting Oil Minister, Ali Allawi, vowed that his country would further reduce production as it remains committed to the OPEC+ pact.
      At the video news conference following the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, emphatically said on Monday that “We have no room whatsoever for lack of conformity.”
      Today, Iraq’s new Oil Minister, Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismaael, confirmed in a phone call with his Saudi counterpart Iraq’s “full commitment” to the cuts, OPEC said in a press release on Tuesday. Iraq confirms “its commitment to the voluntary oil production adjustments of June and July 2020, as well as the voluntary adjustments for the period following the end of July, despite the economic and financial challenges,” Ismaael told the Saudi energy minister.
      By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
       
    • By Adam Montana
      OPEC deal important for oil market stability: Iraqi PM
      By Mohammed Rwanduzy 2 hours ago Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi addresses reporters during his weekly press conference in Baghdad on July 2, 2019. Photo: Iraqi PMO video ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Iraq’s premier praised the OPEC deal to on Tuesday staying oil production cuts for nine more months because it is important for market stability as Baghdad is so heavily dependent on oil revenue. 

      “This is important for market stability. This topic, for us, the Kingdom and all the producers and exporters of oil is important because budgets depend on oil market stability,” Iraqi PM Adil Abdul-Mahdi told reporters in his weekly press conference on Tuesday.   Members some non-members of the Organization of Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) met in Vienna this week. Following a prior agreement on Monday between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the cartel agreed to extend production cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for nine more months until March 2020 in a bid to push global prices higher.

      The agreement was based on the Saudi desires to “face market developments and preserve the measures undertaken”, the PM Abdul-Mahdi revealed, adding that he had a phone call with Saudi King Salman prior to the deal.

      According to Iraqi Ministry of Oil statistics for the month of June, Iraq’s oil revenue fell from $7.38 billion in May to $6.4 billion in June as its exports fell by 6 percent, from 111 million barrels in May to 105 million barrels in June.

      Iraq exports around 3.5 million barrels per month — the second highest crude oil producer in OPEC.

      Iraq has agreements, especially a mega deal with the US giant ExxonMobil, to develop its southern oilfields to increase its production capacity. However, due to a missile that hit the main headquarters of the company in Basra, some foreign staff were evacuated in June. 

      The attack against ExxonMobil came amid soaring US-Iran tensions; Iraq could be negatively impacted if the hostilities breakout between Iran and the US.

      However, it also raised questions about Iraq’s ability to provide a secure atmosphere in which foreign companies could invest in the decades-deprived oil sector. It has been reported that Iraq could act as Iran’s “ATM” to provide a loophole for US sanctions. 

      Abdul-Mahdi, in his typical understated manner downplayed the incidents against energy and other companies working in Iraq, claiming they do not exceed those in “other countries.”

      “The security measures are crystal clear. Yes there have been threats, but no real security violation has taken place to any of our oil and non-oil installations. We undertake all measures,” he said.

      Some ExxonMobil employees have returned, the PM claimed, without elaborating.

      Separately, the PM also touched on connecting Iraq’s electricity grid to Arab and regional electricity grids — namely Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.

      “We haven’t concluded this matter. It is still in the discussion stage. There is both a technical and a financial aspect to it. This is not something that [doesn’t entail] certain financial burdens, extending networks, and costs for these units,” the PM said, though adding the discussions are “serious.”

      “We, as Iraq, have to be connected to [electricity] grids just like the countries of the world,” he emphasized.

      Iraq does import electricity from Iran, but there needs to be greater interconnection with other regional countries, the PM posited.

      Iraq’s electricity grid is aging and strained by an increasing population, reconstruction and development. Usage also peaks in the summer months as temperatures in the south soar over 50 Celsius. The hours of government-produced electricity varies greatly across Iraq and the Kurdistan Region by geography. 
       
      Link: http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/030720191
    • By ladyGrace'sDaddy
      Iran sanctions could soon push oil prices above $90 a barrel, Bank of America Merrill Lynch says
      “We are in a very attractive oil price environment and our house view is that oil will hit $90 by the end of the second quarter of next year,” Hootan Yazhari, head of frontier markets equity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said. On Tuesday, the U.S. demanded that all countries halt imports of Iranian crude from early November. The Trump administration’s hardline position comes as part of a broader push to try to further isolate Tehran both politically and economically. International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $78.18 on Thursday, up around 0.7 percent while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood unchanged at $72.72. Sam Meredith | @smeredith19  

      President Donald Trump’s sustained bid to disrupt Iran’s petroleum exports could soon help to push oil prices above $90 a barrel, analysts told CNBC on Thursday.
      Crude futures were seen hovering close to multi-year highs during early afternoon deals, after a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. stockpilesadded to a rally fueled by a major Canadian supply outage, concerns about Libya’s exports and efforts by the Trump administration to cut off funds from Iran.
      “We are in a very attractive oil price environment and our house view is that oil will hit $90 by the end of the second quarter of next year,” Hootan Yazhari, head of frontier markets equity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said.
        “We are moving into an environment where supply disruptions are visible all over the world… and of course President Trump has been pretty active in trying to isolate Iran and getting U.S. allies not to purchase oil from Iran,” he added.
      International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $78.18 on Thursday, up around 0.7 percent while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood unchanged at $72.72.
      Saudi Arabia is ‘genuinely worried’
      On Tuesday, the U.S. demanded that all countries halt imports of Iranian crude from early November. The Trump administration’s hardline position comes as part of a broader push to try to further isolate Tehran both politically and economically.
      Nonetheless, most major importers of Iranian crude have balked at Washington’s almost unilateral policy towards Iran.
       
          The move followed OPEC’s decision to ramp up crude production last week. The Middle East-dominated cartel is looking to moderate oil prices after a rally of more than 40 percent over the last 12 months.
      The 14-member producer group took action as Venezuela's dwindling output, the looming disruptions to Iran's supplies, and production declines elsewhere raised concerns about crude futures rising enough to dent global demand.
      “You do not want to give Jeff Bezos a seven-year head start.” Hear what else Buffett has to say   “Saudi Arabia is genuinely worried, perhaps even panicked, about supply losses from Iran — something it simply cannot be seen to say publicly — and the likely price spike that will result,” analysts at Energy Aspects said in a research note published Thursday.
       
    • By Half Crazy Runner
      Can anyone explain to me why must they pass the HCL law before there can be a revaluation of the dinar?  What is the connection? It certainly doesn’t look like the GOI will ever agree on this or even bring it up for a vote. They keep pushing it off to the “next session” year after year...  Is it at all possible that we can ever see an RV without the HCL law passing?
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