Oil rises 1% on settlement amid fears of supply shortages

[10 YEARS LATER]

4 hours ago, ChuckFinley said:

Thanks 10YL, interesting link and it was all green.  

 Most welcome CF - just checked it again . . . in the green & $79.03 - - - - looking good  

[yota691]

Oil prices are falling for expectations that OPEC may increase production

 

Arab and international Economy News _ Baghdad LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday on expectations that Opec members would raise production in the face of concerns over supply from Venezuela and Iran.  Prices were also affected by a surprise increase in US crude inventories, pushing the price difference between Brent and US crude west Texas Intermediate to near a three-year high.  At 0610 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.46 percent, at $ 79.43 a barrel.  West Texas crude fell 27 cents, or 0.38 percent, to $ 71.57 a barrel.  "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may decide to increase oil production to compensate for the decline in supply from Iran and Venezuela amid Washington's concerns about a rise in crude prices," Reuters quoted OPEC and oil sources as saying. Views 9   Date Added 24/05/2018

[ChuckFinley]

Diesel is 3.17 in VA.  

[yota691]

Sources: OPEC and independent producers discuss increasing supplies by about 1 million b / d

 

 Since 2018-05-25 at 13:59 (Baghdad time)

Follow-up of Mawazine News

 Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss increasing oil production from within and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by about 1 million bpd in easing the 17-month-old supply restrictions, informed sources said.

According to Reuters, "an increase of about one million barrels per day would reach the level of compliance with global supply constraints to 100 percent, down from about 152 percent."

The sources pointed out that "the preliminary talks led by the Saudi and Russian energy ministers in St. Petersburg this week, along with the UAE counterpart, whose country holds the OPEC presidency this year."

OPEC ministers and independent producers will meet in Vienna on June 22 and 23, and the final decision is expected.

[yota691]

World markets suffer losses by the end of the week

26/5/2018 12:00 am  Due to increased political tensions Capitals / follow-up morning US President Donald Trump's decision to cancel a meeting with his North Korean counterpart and a jump in gold prices dominated global markets by the end of the weekend as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to take serious steps to tackle rising inflation and halt. The local currency's bleeding, which fell more than 2 percent during trading against the US dollar. Gold Jump Gold  returned yesterday's high of $ 1300 as the US dollar weakened and political tensions increased, with the yellow metal gaining nearly  $ 15  .  On the contrary, fears of increased crude production by OPEC and producers from outside have led to a drop in oil prices to a two-week low, as well as a jump in US stocks  last week  . Stock indexes trimmed "Dow Jones" losses at the end of the session , after 280 pips during trading, after the cancellation of the summit with the US President , leader of North Korea, and with the decline in shares of the energy sector by about 1.7 percent. US jobless claims rose 11,000 last week, beating analyst expectations. Other data also showed US home sales fell more than estimates last month.

[yota691]

Rock oil has not benefited from high oil prices

26/5/2018 12:00 am  With the markets waiting for the meeting of {OPEC} Capitals / follow-up morning Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss increasing oil production from within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and beyond by about 1 million barrels a day in easing the 17-month restrictions on supplies, informed sources said. An increase of about one million barrels per day would bring the level of compliance with global supply constraints to 100 percent, down from about 152 percent, the sources said.  OPEC ministers and independent producers will meet in Vienna on June 22 and 23 and the final decision is expected at a time when crude oil prices for the Brent crude have reached about $ 80, the highest level since mid-2014, reflecting growing concern over supply constraints. Geopolitical and the continued effectiveness of the agreement to cut production between OPEC, Russia and other oil countries. Crude prices had reached $ 80 last week for the first time since November 2014.  Rock oil Prices have recovered, but the overall trend, according to observers, will remain high. Until recently, experts believed that prices above $ 50 would push rock oil producers to raise production, taking advantage of massive reserves in the rocks under the state of North Dakota and the Texas Pyramid Basin. Although prices reached above $ 70 at the beginning of the month, rock oil production did not rise significantly despite rising drilling platforms.  There are those who believe that with every rise in prices, the activity of companies operating in the production of rock oil is increasing, and growing American production remains a special risk factor after prices surpassed $ 80 a barrel for the first time since  2014.   The US Energy Information Service predicts that American production will rise by 14.6 percent. There are doubts that these expectations will be met because of the lack of adequate infrastructure in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the richest oil producing area. Economists such as US economist Erwin Stellezer ask in an article in The Sunday Times on May 20 why oil producers are not raising production at high and attractive prices.  The reason for its inability to do so is the inadequate oil infrastructure in West Texas, specifically the limited capacity of pipelines to transport crude oil to ports, warehouses and refineries. In other words the bottleneck is too tight to accommodate more output. Rising Engines It seems that the classic supply and demand equation still works as usual and the high demand for oil can be explained by the high pace of global economic growth especially in the US and Asia.  At the same time, supply problems from Venezuela due to unrest, the flight of investors and non-payment of salaries of workers in the oil sector, resulting in the loss of more than one million barrels per day, where production fell from 2.3 million barrels to less than one million barrels per day.  If we add 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production, according to OPEC and Russia, we see that the volume of supply suffers from many obstacles, which in turn drives prices higher. Another element that has boosted price recovery is the fall in oil stocks. In this context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says reserve stocks in industrialized countries have reached their lowest level since 2015. The drivers for rising prices are speculations and hedge markets that bet on prices to continue rising. Trump knows that he can not pressure OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia, to raise production and flood the market with crude oil. Saudi Arabia has major reform projects and plans that require huge financial investments. The kingdom is also trying to narrow the budget deficit. Will be offering its IPO in an IPO next year.

[yota691]

Putin: Oil price of $ 60 a barrel fits Russia

- 5/25/2018 8:12:00 AM72 Number of readings

 

 

 

 

Khandan -

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the oil price of $ 60 a barrel was favorable to Russia and 

the Russian president said in televised remarks on Friday that high oil prices could cause problems for consumers. 

Putin said Russia, which has reached an agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production, has working ties with the Organization and Saudi Arabia, its biggest producers in particular.

[yota691]

International Monetary Fund: World Trade Organization Threatened

Date of release: 2018/5/25 19:16 • 434 times read

[Oan- follow - up] 
Director General of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde said on Friday that the global trading system is threatened by forces that want to undermine it .

Lagarde warned that "recourse to trade protection policies would be a serious mistake." 
Lagarde made the remarks during an economic forum in St. Petersburg attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[Pitcher]

Last week the oil price did a U-turn based on expectations of production increases by an alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Brent had tested the $80 level over several weeks. It fell to $76.44 by Friday and some more in early Asian trading on Monday, reaching $74.50.

Over the past few months the rise of the oil price seemed unstoppable because of sharp production falls by Venezuela and the geopolitically tight situation in Nigeria, Libya and Northern Iraq. President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement, followed by the toughest sanctions ever, was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back and $80 seemed to have become the new level.

Trump issued a harsh tweet in the direction of OPEC, criticizing its production cuts for high oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and other pundits started talking about demand destruction and US consumers feared for their outings during the summer driving season.

Demand destruction is always a fear for producers, regardless of whether it is consumption induced due to higher oil prices or structural in the form of new technologies

The situation had indeed become tight. By January 2017 OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC countries had vowed to take 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) out of production under the so-called “Declaration of Cooperation.” The aim was to reduce the huge global overhang of crude inventories by OECD countries to their five-year average. By March/April that mission was accomplished, which resulted in markets reacting nervously with each and every geopolitical glitch — of which there have been many this year.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak met last week to discuss the situation. April compliance under the Declaration of Cooperation stood at 187 percent, which Novak calculated as overshooting the cuts by a million barrels. He felt that something needed to be done. Al-Falih, who is a hawk and on record as saying that he preferred markets tight, relented. They have agreed to address the issue and all eyes will now focus on next month’s OPEC meeting in Vienna.

Which country increases by how many barrels a day will have to be negotiated carefully, so as not to upset the delicate balance among OPEC producers.

Cornelia Meyer

Russia is currently talking of an increase of 250-300,000 bpd. But they have more capacity. There is new built capacity of around 700,000 bpd, which some players, especially Rosneft’s Igor Sechin, are eager to release.

In OPEC, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar have spare capacity. Saudi Arabia produces 9.9 million bpd and sits on a capacity of 11.5 million bpd. Which country increases by how many barrels a day will have to be negotiated carefully, so as not to upset the delicate balance among OPEC producers.

The IEA had also forecast non-OPEC production to increase by 800,000 bpd in 2018 — the lion’s share coming from North America. Earlier in the year the US had experienced some infrastructure bottlenecks in bringing shale from the Permian to the international markets. They seem to be addressed one by one. In June China is scheduled to receive the largest ever crude imports from the US.

We can be certain that OPEC will raise production in June, as will Russia. Saudi Arabia, especially, has every interest to do so, because it lost market share and may by now feel the need to preserve some of it, particularly in Asia. Russia has replaced the Kingdom as the biggest importer to China and Iraq has taken the top spot in India. The US is set to overtake Russia as the world’s largest producer this year, which means it will also be chasing after incremental barrels in the juicy Asian markets.

We can look forward to production increases from OPEC as well as its non-OPEC allies, and there are further barrels hitting the markets, particularly from the Western hemisphere. This will ease pressure.

However, in the long run we are not out of the woods yet: The sector as a whole is severely underinvested. The ultra-low prices in 2015 and 2016 had the big international oil companies cancel up to 40 percent of their scheduled investments. Last year they were still skittish when it came to investing. Conventional oil is a business with an ultra-long cycle and a dollar invested in upstream today will result in a barrel produced in four to 10 years.

By 2020 we could well start to feel the pinch. All depends, of course, on demand (currently forecast to grow by 1.4 million bpd, according to the IEA), which in turn will depend on the state of the global economy.

 

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1311311

 

[yota691]

Oil falls to $ 75 with OPEC's intention to increase production

In the economy of  May 28, 2018 on oil drops to $ 75 with the intention of OPEC to increase production closed 22 visits

 

Baghdad / SNG

Oil prices fell on Monday, continuing their sharp fall on Friday, as Saudi Arabia and Russia say they may increase supplies while there is no sign of a slowdown in US production growth.

By 0452 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading at $ 75.09 a barrel, down $ 1.35, or 1.8 percent, from the previous close. 
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were $ 66.22 a barrel, down $ 1.66 or 2.5 percent. 
The contracts fell 6.4 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, from the peak they touched earlier this month. 
In China, Shanghai's crude futures contract fell 4.8 percent to 457.7 yuan ($ 71.64) a barrel

[yota691]

Oil prices are stable after being disrupted by supply concerns

 

Arab and international Economy News _ Baghdad Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after falling sharply in recent days on fears that Saudi Arabia and Russia would be pouring more crude in the second half of the year after global oil inventories and consumer prices plummeted. Saudi Arabia and Russia have discussed increasing OPEC and non-OPEC oil production by 1 million barrels a day to counter a potential supply shortfall in Venezuela and Iran. By 0619 GMT, the benchmark Brent crude <LCOc1> rose early losses, adding one cent to $ 75.40 a barrel after trading as low as $ 74.81 a barrel. US WTI rose 10 cents to $ 66.83 a barrel after touching a session low of $ 66.35 a barrel. West Texas crude has fallen more than 7 percent in the past five sessions. Production constraints led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have largely contributed to the discharge of surplus stocks in industrialized countries and stockpiles continue to decline. The organization is scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 22.  The increase in production has raised concerns among traders about the rise in the oil market, and will begin to hedge at much lower levels than the current price of futures contracts if the organization increases production at a rapid pace. Credit Suisse analysts said on Tuesday that even if Russia and OPEC producers increased production, this would probably add only 500,000 more barrels, leaving stocks in most industrialized countries below the five-year average by the end of 2018. Views 4   Date Added 05/30/2018

[yota691]

Expert: Oil prices reassuring for Iraq

31/5/2018 12:00 am  With stable levels in the global market  Singapore / Morning follow-up  Oil prices steadied on Wednesday after falling in recent days on fears that Saudi Arabia and Russia will inject more crude in the second half of the year after the decline in global oil stocks and rising prices for consumers. Saudi Arabia and Russia have discussed increasing OPEC and non-OPEC oil production by 1 million barrels a day to counter a potential supply shortfall in Venezuela and Iran.  By 0619 GMT, the benchmark Brent crude was up to a record low of $ 75.40 a barrel after trading at $ 74.81 a barrel.   Acceptable levels  in turn, economic specialist Haider Al-Aqabi that "oil prices at their current rates reassuring for Iraq, which approved its budget on the basis of $ 46 a barrel."  Al-Akabi ruled out the return of prices to the low levels witnessed during the past three years, which caused great losses to the producing countries and which will work hard in cooperation with OPEC to make prices within acceptable levels for all parties. This is indicated by continuous follow-up by major producers around the world for oil prices.  Global markets  . "   He pointed out that" the agreement to reduce production continued and contributed to achieve a balance in prices and this is a gain for OPEC can not give up. "   Surplus US WTI rose 10 cents to $ 66.83 a barrel after touching a session low of $ 66.35 a barrel. West Texas crude has fallen more than 7 percent in the  past five sessions  .  Production constraints led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have largely contributed to the discharge of surplus stocks in industrialized countries and stockpiles continue to decline. Increased production The organization is scheduled to meet in Vienna on 22 June. Production expansion plans have raised concerns among investors about the rise in the oil market, and will begin to hedge at much lower levels than the current price of futures if the organization increases production at a  rapid pace . Credit Suisse analysts said even if Russia and OPEC producers increased production, this would probably add only 500,000 more barrels, leaving stocks in most industrialized countries below the five-year average by the end of   2018.

[Pitcher]

Crude futures regained ground after early losses on Friday, but the U.S. benchmark is set for a second consecutive week of declines as U.S. oil output comes close to matching that of top producer Russia, Reuters reported.

 

North Sea Brent crude’s premium over West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures remained near three-year highs above $10 a barrel, having surpassed $11 on Thursday.

The premium has doubled in less than a month, as a lack of pipeline capacity in the United States has trapped a lot of output inland.

U.S. crude production has been rising to record levels since late last year. In March it jumped 215,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47 million bpd, a new monthly record, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

“The WTI/Brent spread is wide far down the curve and apparently not reflecting the notion that easing infrastructural constraints and slower U.S. supply growth should begin to reconnect both markets in the medium term,” JBC said in a note.

WTI CLc1 gained 11 cents to stand at $67.15 a barrel by 0820 GMT, bouncing off a session low of $66.81 and having fallen almost 2 percent on Thursday.

Global benchmark Brent LCOc1, little changed in the previous session, was up 12 cents at $77.68 per barrel.

For the week, WTI was on track for a 1 percent fall, adding to last week’s near 5 percent decline and shrugging off a 3.6-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. [EIA/S]

Brent was set to rise 1.6 percent for the week, widening the spread between the two benchmarks.

Sources told Reuters last week that Saudi Arabia, the effective leader of OPEC, and Russia were discussing boosting output by about 1 million bpd to compensate for losses in supply from Venezuela and to address concerns about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian output.

This pushed Brent to a three-week low below $75 a barrel on Monday. Brent recovered later in the week, however, when a Gulf source flagged that any rise in production would be gradual.

Russia would be able to raise its oil output within months to levels last seen before a global production-cutting deal took effect if there is a decision to unwind the pact, a Russian Energy Ministry official said.

 

http://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/story/27945/Oil-prices-steady-amid-U-S-supply-growth-OPEC-uncertainty

[yota691]

02-06-2018 12:40 PM

Total ruled out an exemption from Washington allowing it to complete its project in Iran

 

 

 

 

MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed signed a strategic partnership agreement today, which includes an agreement to continue cooperation in oil and gas. 

The declaration said the cooperation aims to promote balance and stability in the world oil market. 

"The possibility of obtaining an exemption from the US authorities is too small to continue its massive gas project in Iran," Patrick Poyne, chairman of France's Total Oil Group, said at the General Assembly of shareholders in Paris.

A deal of $ 4.8 billion was signed in July 2017. Total owns 50.1 percent of the consortium that is developing phase 11 of the South Pars field, followed by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Percent of shares) and Iranian «Petrobras» (19.9). But the French giant warned that it would put an end to its project in Iran if it did not receive an exception from the US authorities with the support of France and the European Union. 

On the market, oil futures offset losses earlier in the day, but US crude is heading for a second consecutive week under pressure from US production and expectations of an increase in OPEC output. 

US WTI rose 11 cents to $ 67.15 a barrel by 07:02 GMT, recovering from a low of $ 66.81 a barrel after falling nearly two percent yesterday.

Global Brent crude <LCOc1> was little changed in the previous session, but rose 16 cents to $ 77.72 a barrel after trading at $ 77.36 a barrel yesterday. 

US WTI is down 1.5 percent this week after falling by about 5 percent last week, while Brent is up 1.3 percent to widen the gap between the two. 

US crude production has risen to record levels since late last year. The US Energy Information Administration said in a new monthly report that production jumped 215 thousand barrels per day to 10.47 million barrels. 

Sources told Reuters last week that Saudi Arabia, the actual leader of OPEC and Russia, are discussing an increase in production by about 1 million barrels a day to compensate for the decline in Venezuela's production and address concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Iranian production.

A Gulf source said the two sides were ready to gradually adjust supplies to cover the shortfall. 

In Moscow, Renaissance Capital wrote in a note to its clients that Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, had recovered oil production of 70,000 barrels per day in just two days as it tested the possibility of easing restrictions on global oil production. Rosneft produces about 40 percent of Russia's total crude production. 

Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin told Reuters that Russia would be able to recover its production within a few months. 

The current global production reduction agreement applies until the end of the year. OPEC ministers and independent producers will meet in Vienna on March 22-23 to review the deal. 

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, and Russia have hinted at a potential need to gradually increase oil production to avoid any supply shortages.

Renaissance Capital analysts visited the Europchino-Tochomskoy oil field in eastern Siberia. 

"Rosneft's management confirmed during the flight that the company's excess production capacity currently ranges from 120 to 150 thousand barrels per day (due to OPEC's restrictions with independents), which is more than our recent estimate of 100,000 barrels per day." 

"According to Rosneft, it has recovered the production of 70,000 barrels per day of oil in just two days, and a further increase in production in the near term is likely to support its second-quarter results in our opinion." 

In Moscow, Russia's deputy energy minister said Moscow planned to increase its annual production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea to 120 million tonnes by 2035 and cut market share from Australia and the United States by exploiting lower costs.

In December, Novatek, Russia's second largest gas producer and its partners, including France's Total, opened the Yamal LNG plant in the Arctic with a production capacity of 17.4 million tonnes per year and is expected to reach the end of 2019 "The project highlights Russia's ability to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a harsh climate and further strengthens its position in the global energy market. 

Yamal aims to help Russia increase its share of the world liquefied natural gas market by two times by 2020. 

Novatek plans to launch LNG production on the nearby Jidan peninsula. 

So far, Russia has been dominant in supplying gas to Europe through pipelines, with Gazprom accounting for about a third of Europe's needs.

Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has increased in recent years because it is cleaner than oil and coal and could reach global markets because of its lack of reliance on pipelines. But it is more expensive than gas delivered through pipelines. 

"What will trigger the competition is the additional quantities that can be supplied by the United States or Australia," a Russian official said, adding that Russian companies were highly competitive because of lower production and transportation costs. 

According to the Moscow-based Skolukovo Research Center, the average cost of producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Yamal plant and transporting it to Shanghai for export is expected to exceed $ 8 per million BTUs by 2025.

[yota691]

Currency performance and oil developments are the focus of global markets today

 08 June 2018 01:15 p
From: Ahmed Shawky: 
Mubasher: Oil developments topped the scene in the global markets by Thursday's trading, along with the recovery of currencies and another drop.

Before the upcoming meeting with North Korea's leader next week, US President  Donald Trump expressed his desire to normalize relations with the isolated state if "things went well."

Oil developments

Oil prices rose by about 2% at today's session amid fears of a drop in Venezuelan crude exports, amid reports that it intends to declare force majeure contracts with the buyers of crude.

The US crude also received support from statements by the Algerian oil minister, who said that "OPEC" will consider achieving a balance in the market at the next meeting and not reduce production.

Other reports also said that the US president asked Saudi Arabia to control oil prices before announcing a withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal for fear of a possible shortage of crude as a result of this decision.

While China's purchases of US oil doubled during the months of January to April, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

US natural gas inventories rose more-than-expected in the past week.

Gold was supported by the US dollar's decline as business developments awaited a close today.

Currencies

The US dollar fell during the day as investors awaited the trading conditions ahead of the Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting.

According to a research note issued by the bank "ANG " , that the strength of the US dollar found resistance finally , after the strong rise during the last period.

While the euro rose through the level of $ 1.1800 during the day with comments from members of the European Central Bank to discuss the termination of quantitative easing at the next bank meeting.

In Brazil, attempts by the country's central bank to save the currency have failed, with the Brazilian riyal falling more than 1% against the US currency during trading.

While the Turkish lira turned higher during the trading session against the US dollar and rose by about 2% after the decision of the central bank in the country to raise the interest rate.

Stock Indices

US stocks fell, with tech losses outpacing energy gains, while Dow Jones rose alone at a two-month high.

Analysts at JPMorgan said Trump had cost the US stock market $ 1 trillion because of his comments on trade issues.

For his part, the US Commerce Secretary announced that the United States had concluded a final agreement with China's ZTE to stop the company's ban.

While a press report said the two projects planned to pass legislation to prevent the agreement with ZTE.

The US Labor Department reported a drop in US jobless claims last week.

While Federal Reserve data showed US consumer credit growth at the slowest pace in 7 months.

The European stock markets were also hit by the shares of the travel and leisure sector, with the euro gaining ground.

Economic data showed today the confirmation of slower economic growth in the euro area during the first quarter to record the lowest level in a year and a half.

While separate data showed a decline in German factory orders, contrary to analysts' expectations in April.

Halifax data reported a rise in house prices in Britain in May, more than expected.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed today's session in the green zone, and the Nikkei reached the highest level in two weeks.

 

[yota691]

Just now, yota691 said:

Analysts at JP Morgan said Trump had cost the US stock market $ 1 trillion

BS...Without Trump US Stock Market wouldn't be were JP Morgan is at...over 25...

[Pitcher]

As Venezuelan oil exports near collapse and supply growth idles elsewhere in Latin America, a new wave of heavy sour crude from Iraq has begun to flow into US Gulf Coast refineries, a trend analysts expect to multiply, at least in the near term.

"Sometimes it's a buyers' market where there's an excess of heavy sour ... currently it's a sellers' market [for Iraq] with the rapid decline of Venezuelan heavy barrels and stagnant production out of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia," said John Auers, executive vice president at refinery consultants Turner, Mason & Co..

Iraq, which had long blended its heavier sour crude with medium grades, exported 301,600 b/d of heavy crude to the US Gulf Coast in March, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data. It was the highest average since January 2017, when about 341,650 b/d of Iraqi heavy sour crude was shipped to the Gulf Coast, an all-time high, according to the EIA data.

Through May, roughly 35.5 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude had been imported by US Gulf Coast refiners, up about 1 million barrels compared with the first five months of 2017, but more than double imports in the same time period in 2016, when about 16.6 million barrels of the heavy Iraqi crude was imported, according to the latest US Customs and Border Protection data.

The US did not begin regularly importing Iraq heavy crude until September 2015, but Iraq has become one of the US' top sources of heavy sour crude, behind Canada, Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela, according to EIA data.

Canada remains, by far, the largest source of heavy sour crude. The US imported 2.42 million b/d of Canadian heavy sour crude in March, more than all other countries combined, according to EIA. But the import gap between Iraq and heavy crudes from top Latin American countries has shrunk this year and Basrah Heavy is accounting for a growing percentage of Gulf Coast imports.

Nearly 15% of all heavy sour crude imported on the US Gulf Coast in March came from Iraq, compared with about 6% in March 2017. In the first three months of 2018, the US imported an average of about 257,400 b/d of Basrah Heavy crude, accounting for 13% of all US Gulf Coast heavy crude imports.

The growth of Iraqi crude exports to the US is driven, at least partly, by the decline in Venezuelan oil production and exports, according to Auers. US Gulf Coast imports of Venezuelan heavy sour crude have averaged roughly 249,100 b/d so far this year, down from nearly 529,760 b/d in the same period in 2017 and 658,600 b/d in 2016. OPEC CUTS

Jacques Rousseau, managing director, global oil and gas with ClearView Energy Partners, believes the shift by Gulf Coast refiners to Basrah Heavy is largely due to the ongoing agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut their output. 

"This increase appears to be offsetting lower imports from other OPEC countries that have removed oil from the market," Rousseau said, adding that Iraq was likely offsetting potential imports of heavy sour crudes from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Iraq, which has one of the lowest compliance rates to production cuts of all OPEC countries, saw its oil output average 4.47 million b/d in May, a 50,000 b/d production increase from April, according to an S&P Global Platts survey released Friday. Iraq remained 120,000 b/d over its allocation, according to the survey.

Saudi Arabia's output, meanwhile, averaged 10.01 million b/d in May, up 60,000 b/d from April and 50,000 b/d below its allocation, according to the survey.

US Gulf Coast imports of Saudi heavy sour peaked at 290,250 b/d in February 2017 and have since fallen to about 8,300 b/d in March, according to EIA. US imports of all Saudi crude averaged 748,500 b/d in March, down from more than 1.17 million b/d in March 2017.

Kuwait has not sent a barrel of heavy sour crude to the US Gulf Coast since January 2017, according to EIA data.

Meanwhile, Iraq currently exports about 800,000 b/d to 850,000 b/d of Basrah Heavy, about 25% of which are southern exports. Exports are forecast to climb to about 1 million b/d by the end of 2018 when additional output from fields in southern Iraq come online. Exports are forecast to increase to 1.2 million b/d by mid-2019, where they will likely remain until a long-delayed water injection project is completed, possibly by 2022. CAPACITY LIMITS

Analysts said this week that they expect the growth of Iraq imports to the US Gulf Coast to be a short-term phenomenon, partly due to the International Maritime Organization's 0.5% global sulfur cap for fuel oil in 2020, which could depress demand for heavy crude.

"Iraq's crude grades offer a good complement to the increasingly high API crude slate because they are middle distillate rich," said Michael Cohen, head of energy commodities research at Barclays. "That said, they are quite high in sulfur."

And while there is limited global demand for heavy crude to compete with the US Gulf Coast, there are no substantial plans to increase heavy crude refining capacity there.

Auers estimated that Gulf Coast refiners could currently run as much as 2.5 million b/d of heavy crude with a gravity of less than 25. But that will only go up "marginally" before 2020 and there are no clear incentives for growth, he added.

 

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/washington/iraqi-heavy-crude-exports-to-usgc-climb-amid-21070562

 

[yota691]

Iraq warns OPEC countries of pumping more oil into the market

 

 

 

11/6/2018 Now - Agencies

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi on Monday warned members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of sacrificing more oil at the present time. 

"We should not exaggerate the need of the oil market to pump more oil at present, which could cause great damage to global markets," Al-Allaibi said in a statement received by Anatolia.

Al-Allaibi refused to "unify unilateral decisions on the part of some (unnamed) producers, without referring to the rest of the other members."

"It could be a violation of the agreement in one form or another," he warned.

In early 2017, OPEC and a group of non-member countries, led by Russia, began implementing an agreement to cut crude output by 1.8 million barrels per day to eliminate excess supply, with the agreement ending in December 2018.

OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia have expressed their readiness to supply the oil market with their crude oil needs, if supply is shortened by the US sanctions against Iran.

He added Allaibi: 'We should not prejudge matters in the judgment on developments in the oil market, and producers to deal wisely and vision with the facts on the ground without being influenced by pressures and factors and calls conflicting to pumping'.

He continued: 'Iraq believes that oil prices are still below the level of ambition, and that they need more support and stability, and the commitment of producers to agree, to the prices of equitable and realistic'. 

Under the deal, Iraq cut production by 210,000 bpd to 4.35 million bpd; oil ministry officials say Baghdad has fully complied with the agreement.

[yota691]

OPEC raises oil production led by Saudi Arabia and Algeria

 12 June 2018 02:36 PM
From - Sally Ismail:

Mubasher: Production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) rose from crude last month, led by Saudi Arabia and Algeria.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement that the oil production of the 14 member countries reached 31.87 million barrels per day in May, up 35.4 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month.

The report said OPEC oil production rose last month due to rising supplies from Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Iraq.

Saudi Arabia increased its oil production in May by 85.5 thousand barrels per day to 9.98 million barrels per day and Algeria's production in the same period increased by 39 thousand barrels to 1.03 million barrels per day.

Iraq's crude production increased by 27.7 thousand barrels per day to 4.45 million bpd in May.

Six countries cut production last month, led by Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya.

Nigeria cut its oil production by 53.5 thousand barrels per day to drop to 1.71 million barrels per day last month.

While Venezuelan production of crude fell by 42.5 thousand barrels per day to 1.39 million barrels per day.

Libya saw a decline of 24.3 thousand barrels per day in its production of oil to total production in May 955 thousand barrels per day.

Brent futures for August delivery fell 0.4% to $ 76.13 a barrel by 11:18 GMT.

US crude futures for July delivery fell 0.3% to $ 65.91 a barrel.

[yota691]

Congo asks Iraq to support its accession file to OPEC and infallible answers

 

 Twilight News    
 32 minutes ago

President of the Republic Fuad Masoum met in Baghdad Wednesday with Congolese Foreign Minister Jean-Claude Gacuso and his accompanying delegation. 
Gacuso expressed his country's wishes for Iraq to stand with Congo's request to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). He expressed support for Iraq's demand and readiness to cooperate in this field. 
The Congolese Foreign Minister also stressed his country's keenness to develop bilateral relations, indicating that the Congo has a desire to activate cooperation and serve the supreme interests of the two friendly peoples, which helps to consolidate stability and peace in the region.

Keywords: 

[Pitcher]

Just nine days before a big OPEC meeting, US President Donald Trump joined the oil-market fray Tuesday, blaming the group for high prices.

"Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!" the US president said on Twitter.

Trump's grousing follows reports suggesting the oil exporters group was already planning to open the spigots, an outcome the International Energy Agency hinted at in its monthly report released earlier Wednesday.

"Statements by several parties suggest that action in terms of higher supply could be on the way," said the IEA, which represents the US and other oil-consuming nations.

The IEA suggested the June 22 OPEC meeting in Vienna would need to boost output because of a political crisis in Venezuela that has pinched petroleum output and Trump's decision to exit the Iran nuclear pact, which is expected to result in lower production from the Middle Eastern country.

Under one scenario weighed by the IEA, output from Venezuela and Iran by the end of 2019 could be 1.5 million barrels per day lower than it is today.

"To make up for the losses, we estimate that Middle East OPEC countries could increase production in fairly short order by about 1.1 mb/d and there could be more output from Russia on top of the increase already built into our 2019 non-OPEC supply numbers," the IEA said.

OPEC flows were already higher in May, led by Saudi Arabia, the IEA said, adding that the oil kingpin was still in compliance with the Vienna deal caps.

Citing "people briefed on the discussions," Bloomberg on Wednesday said Saudi Arabia had floated several oil output hike plans to fellow cartel members.

On the sidelines of the opening match of the World Cup on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will meet to discuss oil policy, Bloomberg added.

- higher gasoline prices -

Trump's complaints about OPEC come amid expectations of a more costly US summer driving season. A gallon of regular gasoline is currently $2.91, up 25 percent from the year-ago level.

Analysts attribute the rise in prices in part to OPEC's action to defend prices. 

OPEC and non-OPEC producers struck a deal in late 2016 to trim production by 1.8 million barrels per day to reduce a global glut that had sent prices crashing. Key producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reaffirmed the deal since then.

But Matt Smith, director of research at ClipperData, said Trump himself is responsible for some of the pressure due to the decision to exit the Iran deal.

"It's confusing why the president would come out with a statement like this now," Smith said. "The real catalyst for the recent rise in prices is the sanctions on Iran."

While the world turns its eyes on the Vienna OPEC meeting, oil market watchers are also monitoring activity in Trump's home market, where higher prices are feeding more production of American shale oil.

US production of oil came in at 10.9 million barrels per day last week, according to data released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration, up nearly 17 percent from the year-ago level.

OPEC itself spotlighted US output in its own monthly report on Tuesday, citing the growth of non-OPEC supply as one of several question marks hanging over the situation.

Various sources show that "considerable uncertainty as to world oil demand and non-OPEC supply prevails," OPEC said, leading to a wide range of estimates for the remainder of 2018.

 

 

https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/all-eyes-opec-trump-gripes-over-prices-doc-15w7pi1

[navira]

Bump..this is gonna be a mess in the market, especially when the feds are due to increase the interest rates overnight today, weds. We wait n see

 

[Pitcher]

The Fed raising interest rates is no big deal.  It’s way past time to get them back to a more normal rate.  The markets are not rattled in the least as the Fed has well telegraphed their intentions and why they are doing it.  2 more rate increases this year  and a few more next year.  

 

As a trader I’m more concerned about what the ECB will do this week.    I’m also very concerned about tariffs and a “ trade war”

 

 

[NextYear]

I could have sworn I posted in this thread today or a similar thread. Anyway

 

Quote

"Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!" the US president said on Twitter.

 

Well Mr Trump you know what to do. Release a tiny bit of that reserve we have on hand and drive the prices back down. That'll fix'em and be good for us little guys.

[yota691]

OPEC deal threatened to collapse due to Saudi Arabia and America

 

OPEC

energy Economy News Baghdad: Sources in the oil sector told "Economy News" that OPEC's agreement to reduce oil production faces serious threats to continue because of the great pressure exerted on some countries in OPEC by the United States of America. OPEC and Russia decided in 2016 to cut production in an effort to raise prices after a sharp fall in oil prices due to a global production gap. The sources said that next month may begin to lower oil prices because of Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in addition to the pressure exerted by the United States of America on some countries to end the agreement to reduce production. She noted that US pressure is part of international sanctions against Iran, whose economy will be affected by lower oil prices. Iraq stands against Saudi Arabia's drive to increase its oil production, as it will be heavily affected by its oil dependence and the billions of dollars it needs to rebuild the liberated areas of a pro-Western organization. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said a drop in oil production in Iran and Venezuela could force the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to decide later this month to increase production . Even with the production gap blocked by the United States' re-imposition of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela's political crisis, the oil market is likely to remain vulnerable to volatility next year, the agency said . Oil ministers from OPEC countries meet on June 22 in Vienna . OPEC and Russia decided in 2016 to cut production in an effort to raise prices after a sharp fall in oil prices due to a global production gap . But the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated a possible change in the deal, based on data from oil-exporting countries and analysts' comments in recent weeks . "We reviewed a scenario rather than expectations, indicating that the production of these two countries (Venezuela and Iran) could be less by 1.5 million barrels per day than their current production, " it said in a report. "To compensate for these losses, we estimate that the OPEC countries in the Middle East may increase their production in the short term slightly by about 1.1 million barrels per day and there may be more production than Russia at the top of the increase listed non-OPEC producers in 2019 ». The agency warned that whatever the outcome of the OPEC meeting, "the market will be slightly balanced next year, and weak in front of higher prices in the event of a further decline ." "We support all efforts to reduce the supply disruptions that, as history shows, do not serve the interests of producers or consumers." Views 294   Date Added 14/06/2018